Roku - Downtrend remains despite lurking pullbackSince december 2018 Roku has been in a clear impulsive wave that topped at 175 and made a sharp reversal.
This correction has more the caracteristics of an impulsive wave than a correction, so, I suspect this to be only the first leg, wave A, of the overall correction.
For now we can count 3 waves which means we should see a small pullback for wave (iv) followed by a new push lower for wave (v) before we see it go higher for red wave ((b),
followed after by red wave ((c)) which should then make a new low.
Levels to Watch are the Fib retracements, 50% at 100.0, ; 61.8% at 82.3 ; and the last line of defense for bulls, the 78.6% level at 57.7.
Don't forget to keep an eye on RSI and MACD for some bullish divergence before considering wave ((a)) in place.
ROKU
ROKU filled gap below, looking for upside potential long termROKU just filled the gap below created on the 7th of august due to an earnings report. Looks like a good price to buy for a long term investment. There is also good volume lately witch helps price go up as there is more interest in the stock.
A good stop loss would be a confirmation break of the 200 daily moving average. Then it could go down to the next big level of support which is the red trend line that I have drawn on my chart.
As this is an investment type trade, I don't have a take profit target. Anything could happen...
I wanted to include a YouTuber that specifically uses the gap strategy in his trading and has perfected it for months now. Here is the video on the trade and how he explains it in more detail: youtu.be
Watching ROKUWatching for ROKU to fall into the $93-$83 range. Here I will look at the lower time frames for a complete 5 wave structure within wave v.
Even considering a larger correction to play out, like and ABC flat or triangle, the next move is up. The .618 fib is the perfect spot to find support with the current wave structure.
I will decide at the time how to play this - likely a vertical options spread.
History might repeat itself..Another analysis, if history repeats itself.
50MA becomes resistance
Price starts to hunt for the 200MA, Once MA crosses that 50.
Then if breaks 200, It may come down to 60.
It's scary to take it long from here. Don't try to catch a falling knife.
Confirm first for a good entry on the D/W/ indicators, for any reversal signals.
Possible Next levels. 98 -> 88 -> 80 range (200MA) -> 60 range.
Thanks.
Gap filled. Time to buy??ROKU has been slaughtered over the last couple weeks. Is it time to buy for at least a bounce? I'm leaning towards yes... but I haven't really gotten an entry reason.
ROKU fell more than 40% from wick to wick on the candlestick chart. That's pretty incredible... however, they have had a tremendously good year. I'm not saying they will go up and retest their all time highs, but why not make a little money off a bounce that is bound to happen at some point. That some point might be now.
Roku's Fibonacci drop analysisTechnical analysis
OBV keeps a steady uptrend, surprisingly... Since its price has dropped about 40%.
Fibonacci retracement has its 61.8% line at $102.
We are at a SMA(100) support.
Market moving out of growth, into value.
Moving market news
Pivotal research downgrades to $60 (SELL).
Comcast (CMCSA) is gifting its streaming box, it was selling it before at $5.
Note
* Keeping a tight stop limit, there is a great risk reward ratio.
Disney the Netflix Killer?I can't see Disney taking meaningful shares from Netflix but
the chart is rather bullish
Break out & gap up after good earnings (announcement of Disney plus)
Stock has been consolidating for a few months, since gap up
Trading between the low $130s, high $140s.
A break above $140 and this can potentially hit $200.
ROKU update: wave-iv complete or more complex!?In my first update on ROKU, on August 9, I warned "bears would want to step aside until at least 138-140" as that price zone would provide for a more substantial top. I was then looking for " Based on Fib-extensions and retraces we should see this wave-iii top at around 138-140, then a pullback to about 112ish for a wave-iv of 5, before wave-v of 5 ideally targets the 148-150 zone. ". Price reached $142 on August 14 and dropped as expected, but so far only to $127 last Friday, and is now trying to attack its ATH again.
So is all of wave-iv already in? It is possible as 4th waves can be shallow, but 4th waves are also known to be more often than not complex price structures (triangles, flags, and flats). So in this case, ROKU could be working on wave-b of iv, which can move beyond the ATH before wave-c of iv takes hold to bring price back down. Now this possible wave-c can then go beyond $127 or stall there. We don't and can't know this before hand. In the former case it will then be a regular "expanded flat" and in the latter case a less common "running flat". Time will tell... Bottom line, the bigger trade-able top from a short perspective has IMHO most likely not yet arrived and Bears would want to continue be nimble here as the irregular b-wave can reach as high as $144-149.
For now, the advance off Friday's low looks on a micro-scale better as 3 waves up, but can nonetheless still reach $149-153 if it wants to based on Fib-extensions and "a-wave to b-wave" relationships. That price level, in turn and however, would also fit with the wave-v of 5 of Cycle-C high (baring any possible extensions) and thus overall provide for a much better "top."
Trade Safe!