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Rossgivens

Long Trade in RIOTCrypto stocks are on the move, and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) is setting up for a potential breakout buy here. The stock carries a relative strength rating of 98/100, putting it in the top 2% of stocks based on performance. Crypto and digital payment companies was the top-performing sector over the last 2 months and ranked 2nd over the last 3 months. In other words, there is tremendous group strength here. What I want to see is a strong move through the $12 area on above-average volume. This would be my trigger to buy in anticipation of a quick rally higher.
NASDAQ:RIOTLong
by rossgivens
2
Long Trade in TREXTREX looks buyable here as it breaks through the pivot at $69. TREX is a building products company - specifically decking materials. Construction and related stocks have surged the last several weeks after Wall Street interpreted the latest Fed meeting as a pivot away from raising rates. the 10-yr bond yield has fallen 0.50% over the last few weeks and mortgage rates have come down with it. The boom in construction, which has been fueled by a lack of housing supply in the used market, is likely to accelerate further if rates continue falling as many banks currently forecast. And Trex Company will benefit from this trend. After a structured downtrend in August and September, TREX has ripped higher on big volume. It now trades above all its moving averages and has another 10% to go before reaching its 52-week highs at $76. But TREX is well below its all-time highs. Shares traded at $140 in late 2021 - double its current price. So it looks like there appears to be plenty of upside left on this one.
NYSE:TREXLong
by rossgivens
VCP Breakout Buy in NVONovo Nordisk is emerging from a textbook volatility compression pattern (VCP) - the setup made famous by Mark Minervini. Notice the series of progressively shallower pullbacks from left to right as supply has been absorbed by buyers. NVO is a market-leading stock by all accounts. Shares are up 75% over the last twelve months with no signs of slowing down. This is largely thanks to its new weight loss drug showing tremendous results in clinical trials. The company has also experience accelerating earnings growth for the last several quarters - another favorite quality of Minervini's for identifying top performers. NVO looks buyable here as a swing trade with a stop loss 9-10% below the current price.
NYSE:NVOLong
by rossgivens
1
Breakout Buy in AMPHAfter a deep pullback in August and September, Amphastar is coming back in a big way. Following its early-November earnings report, the stock is up more than 20% in the last few weeks. It has reclaimed all its moving averages and is now consolidation with a pivot at $58. Volume has dried up nicely during this consolidation which is typically a sign the stock is becoming harder to buy and getting concentrated into strong institutional hands. One might consider buying on a high-volume move above $58.
NASDAQ:AMPHLong
by rossgivens
Double Inside CELH BreakoutCelsius Holdings, the market-leading energy drink company, looks poised to emerge from a double inside day setup. The stock traded inside Tuesday's range on Wednesday and Friday and remains inside this tight area. A breakout above 55.25 would be the trigger to buy with a low-risk stop loss at 52.10 (5.6% risk). This breakout would coincide with a move through CELH's 50-day moving average (red line on chart)/ The dashed line on the chart shows additional support near the $51 level if traders wish to give the trade a little more room. This was resistance for most of the Summer and then aced as support during the pullback in October.
NASDAQ:CELHLong
by rossgivens
This is Where to Buy the S&P 500The stock market has a unique ability of embarrassing the greatest number of people. Despite what the general public might believe, bear markets do not end when conditions finally improve. They end at the moment of peak bearishness – when everyone has given up hope and is sure the market is toast. When the final bull throws in the towel... that’s when we get a bottom. The big level I am watching is 420 on the SPY – an ETF representing the S&P 500 index (white dashed line on the chart below). The significance of this cannot be understated. First, this is the current level of the index’s 200-day moving average. Long-term institutional investors watch the 200-day as a proverbial line in the sand to dictate whether the market is trending higher or lower. A close below this level triggers sell orders and limits new buys in many trading systems. This is also the breakout area from the beginning of the year that led to the strong rally we saw in May and July. A violation of this level means all of those gains have been wiped out. It should not come as a surprise that the market found support here last week. But I do not expect it to hold. While I remain bullish on the market over the long-term, I also want to trade the wiggles. That means timing these shorter-term moves in order to make well-timed buys. If and when the S&P breaks through this level, expect to see a quick flush lower. Lots of investors have stop losses here, either physical or mental ones, and many bulls will likely throw in the towel when the level fails. But there is opportunity on the other side… Remember, markets bottom when things look their worst. During the great financial crisis of 2008, stocks did not bottom when economic conditions improved. They bottomed at the peak of the bad news – when everyone believed the sky was falling in March 2009. In the COVID selloff of 2020, the bottom was made on March 23, 2020 – right as lockdowns and a wave of overreaching mandates were first announced. Last year’s bear market found the low on October 13th – the day of the worst inflation report in decades. In every major market correction, the story is the same...bottoms happen when conditions are at their worst. So that is when we want to buy. The final leg lower that I expect to play out over the coming weeks will be just such an occurrence. Auto workers striking, 23-year highs in interest rates, record lows in mortgage demand, war breaking out in the Middle East, a rapidly rising national debt, and a technical sell signal in the major indexes - this will likely create the peak bearishness moment I am looking for that will flush out the bag holders and trigger the final sales to end this pullback. And that is where I will be waiting… ready to buy before the next great bull market gets underway.
AMEX:SPYLong
by rossgivens
3
Breakout Buy in ROOTROOT is an app-based insurance company offering home, auto, and renters’ insurance in all 50 states. With a market capitalization of just $156MM, it is below the small-cap threshold making this a micro-cap stock. In other words, it's small. But it wasn’t always. The company was worth roughly $6 billion when it IPO’d in 2020 - roughly 400X larger than its current valuation. But the stock is showing serious signs of a turnaround. There was a huge volume breakout in June when shares shot from $6 to $14 in one day. A move that extreme needs to be digested since profit taking is almost guaranteed to weigh on the price over the short term. After a series of shallowing retracements which I have highlighted on the chart above, ROOT is setting up for a potential breakout higher. I want to see a break of the most recent highs near $12 to give the best odds of success. If the breakout is valid, it should take off and not look back. Traders could use a 10% stop to give it a little room to work but don’t give it too much rope. This is a volatile stock that can make big fast moves in both directions.
NASDAQ:ROOTLong
by rossgivens
3
Wayfair (W) New Stage 2 Breakout BuyWayfair is the kind of stock you can make a lot of money on by catching the early move. It has household name recognition, trends well, follows the traditional growth stock stages, and is both large enough to attract institutional investors while still being small enough to deliver triple-digit gains. In 2020, for example, shares surged 1,500% in just over five months. A quick look at a longer-term chart and you will see what I mean. The stage analysis above highlights the 4 stages of the stock cycle. This is based on the work of Richard Wyckoff and Stan Weinstein - both legends of the industry. A stock entering a new Stage 2 uptrend is at the ideal buy point. When timed correctly, these can lead to extraordinary gains with limited downside risk. The line in the sand for W is at $75 per share. This is the pivot point, the breakout trigger, key resistance... whatever you want to call it. In the weekly chart below you can see the significance of this level. It served as short-term support on the way down and then became resistance which has held the stock back for over a year. In my opinion, the move above this level last month was a failed breakout in a weak market. This is not a reason to pass on the second attempt. W has consolidated nicely on a series of shallowing retracements and its 10, 21, and 50-day moving averages merging to offer support at today's price. One other catalyst... Overstock.com (which Wayfair also owns) plans to re-brand to something even more recognizable - Bed, Bath & Beyond. It bought the name, domain, and loyalty program assets on the cheap when the company went into bankruptcy a few months ago. This re-brand could be the fresh start the company needs to jumpstart sales growth and trigger a new Stage 2 uptrend in the stock. A move above $75 would confirm the move, and that is where I will look to buy.
NYSE:WLong
by rossgivens
3
Short Trade in AAPLApple has been a top performer all year. The uptrend has been a thing of beauty – steadily marching higher since January. But that ride is over. The stock fell 10% in a week and still failed to attract buyers. It finally broke down last week before reversing higher. But that rally failed. And AAPL is again breaking through short-term support. Traders may consider selling short AAPL stock here in a bet that it will go lower still. This is a very low-risk trade since you could place a buy stop at $182 and risk less than 3% on the trade. Given the high price of the stock, it may be easier to simply buy a put option, like the AAPL $175 put that expires on October 20.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by rossgivens
Sell NVDA NowNVDA stock has topped. The run is over. And institutions are using Wednesday's earnings beat as a final chance to sell their shares while they can. Over the last 4-6 weeks we have witnessed many of these leading names roll over and retrace beneath their 50-day moving average – a key level that generally supports top stocks through the move higher. Despite the recent pullback in the market, Nvidia has held at its highs. Wednesday after the close, Nvidia reported earnings. And the results were better than anyone could have expected... Earnings $2.70 per share versus estimates of $2.08. Sales were $13.5 billion – 20% above expectations. And the company raised forward guidance (how much they expect to bring in next quarter) from $12 billion to $16 billion. They also announced a $25 billion share buyback which should act to propel the stock price even further. Investors got everything they wanted and then some. NVDA stock shot up 10% after hours. The news was so good, the entire Nasdaq index shot up 1% on the news. But Thursday, in the first few hours of trading, all of those gains were gone. The Nasdaq opened higher, and immediately began selling off. It fell 3% during the session. And NVDA was back where it closed the day before. This, to me, is a clear signal that the 2023 rally in tech stocks is over. The high was likely made on July 19th, and I doubt we see that level again this year. The 2023 high is in - both for the Nasdaq and Nvidia stock. Institutional sellers are very clearly selling into the good earnings news and using the demand as a chance to exit their multi-billion-dollar positions. Do not make the mistake of buying here. The party is over.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by rossgivens
1
Long Trade in AROCArchrock provides natural gas equipment, service and maintenance. This is an area of the market I mentioned seeing a lot of strength in over the last few weeks (see Market Leaders are Failing post), and AROC is one of the top performers. The stock came out of a textbook consolidation base last month before climbing 25% in just two weeks. After this parabolic move higher, shares have consolidated slightly to digest the action. But the pullback has been minimal – a sign that investors are still bidding up the stock. With such a shallow base here, AROC could be bought with a stop loss at $12.30 to risk just 5% on the trade.
NYSE:AROCLong
by rossgivens
Long Trade in GBTC (Bitcoin)GBTC is an exchange traded fund that tracks the movement of Bitcoin. It trades like a stock, so GBTC can be bought in any traditional brokerage account or IRA. You could also buy Bitcoin directly. Personally, I don’t trust a lot of the crypto brokers these days, so this feels like a safer option to me. But the results will be similar either way. Bitcoin has been a top performer in 2023. The digital currency is up 146% since the start of the year. What is attracting me to it now, however, is how well the price is holding up in weaker market conditions. After the big run up in June, GBTC found support near 19.40 (white horizontal line I drew on the chart). Two weeks ago this level was breached, but look at how quickly it bounced back up? This tennis ball action is what I want to see. Volume is also mimicking price – another clue that often identifies stocks being accumulated by large institutions. Notice how volume rises with the stock and then decreases on the retracements. This is textbook pre-breakout activity. I took a 10% position in GBTC in my personal account this week at just under $20 per share. If it breaks below $18.30, I will likely get out. This represents an 8% risk on the trade.
GLong
by rossgivens
1
Stage 2 Breakout in NIONIO is basically a Chinese Tesla. They are an electric vehicle manufacturer with seven models in production and have so far delivered around 350,000 units. I don’t typically like Chinese stocks, but this one looks poised for a breakout higher. The chart above shows my stage analysis for NIO stock on a weekly chart covering the last four years. As you can see, NIO is setting up for a new potential Stage 2 rally. The first breakout into a new Stage 2 uptrend is, without question, the best place you can buy a stock. If you drill down to a daily chart, you will see that NIO finally broke through its 200-day SMA which has acted as resistance for the entire downtrend. If NIO can hold above its 200-day moving average and breakout higher, this could be a near perfect entry on this growth stock.
NYSE:NIOLong
by rossgivens
6
Pullback Buy in RDFNRDFN is a stock we bought in my Alpha Stocks service on June 27 when it broke out above resistance at 11.50. It rallied 50% over the next three weeks but has now pulled back to a level where I would consider adding to or taking a new position. Redfin is a powerful stock, but it also has a history of 15-20% pullbacks throughout its up moves. As of Friday morning, the stock is 20% off its high with support at the 21-day exponential moving average which has contained this surge thus far. Traders may consider buying here with a stop loss near $13.
NASDAQ:RDFNLong
by rossgivens
1
Long Trade in SMRTSmartRent offers a home automation platform for property managers and renters. While this is not a pure play on artificial intelligence, it somewhat fits into the AI/tech /software theme we see playing out. It is only about $4 a share, but the company market cap is $770 million. This is not a longshot penny stock with no sales. After consolidating in the $2-$3 range for 8 months, SMRT started moving in May. Shares rose by 75% in three weeks following a strong earnings report. It is now trying to breakout out through resistance and its 200-day SMA is again trending upward. Friday’s candle had a 10% range from low to high showing something of a tug-of-war at new highs. If SMRT can close above $4.00 on above average volume, I would consider buying this stock.
NYSE:SMRTLong
by rossgivens
1
Breakout Trade in SHOPShopify is emerging from a beautiful Stage 2 base. SHOP is up more than 100% since the start of a year – a clear sign this is a market leader. Notice how volume is higher on the rallies up and lower when the stock pulls back. This is a subtle clue that buyers are in control and the smart money is building a position. The breakout on Thursday came on 2X its average daily volume and the stock closed at the high of the candle – both good signs of a legitimate move. I want to see SHOP stay above the breakout level or, at a minimum, above its 21-day moving average (blue line on chart).
NYSE:SHOPLong
by rossgivens
Stage 2 Breakout Buy in UUnity is a gaming company that fits perfectly into the AI theme we are seeing lead this market. I have marked up a weekly chart of the stock to show how it has progressed through the 4 stages of the stock cycle. After chopping around the $20-$40 range for the better part of a year, U is trying to break out into a new Stage 2 uptrend. Price action has tightened and the moving averages are now supporting the stock near its 52-week highs. Also note the heavy buying volume that has come into the stock over the last several weeks. This is something we often see before a stock begins a quick move higher and is indicative of institutions absorbing supply and building a line in the stock. The stock popped higher on Thursday morning before pulling back Friday with the rest of the market. Investors should consider buying here with a 10-15% stop loss.
NYSE:ULong
by rossgivens
1
Breakout Buy in DTDynatrace is a software company developing intelligent platforms that allow customers to modernize and automate IT operations. Their secret sauce? You guessed it… artificial intelligence. Now only has the pullback been shallow (only 6% from its highs), it also took place on decreasing volume. I like to see leading stocks making shallow retracements on light volume. This is my clue that the big players are not selling, and the stock has a good chance of pushing higher. DT is breaking through its $52 pivot point as I type this, making it an actionable trade. DISCLOSURE: I just bought DT here with a stop loss at 49.80 to risk just under 5% on the trade.
NYSE:DTLong
by rossgivens
Long Trade in DDOGDatadog is a big AI name that has come back to life in a big way. After falling 68% in last year’s bear market, the stock has surged 58% in just the last two months. The shallow base formed over the last few weeks took place on lower-than-average volume – a hint that institutions are not selling and the stock is becoming harder to buy. DDOG is now trying to push through the $100 century mark which has acted as resistance for the last five weeks. Traders could buy here with a stop just beneath the 90.88 swing low to risk 10% on the trade.
NASDAQ:DDOGLong
by rossgivens