BTCUSD Hunt Volatility Funnel (HVF)(Note: I'm a beginner at technical analysis. Comments welcome.)
Hunt Volatility Funnel (HVF) on BTCUSD: three successive lower highs interspersed with three successive higher lows. Reasonable risk/reward due to tighter stop and buy signal.
I published an idea for BTCUSDT on Poloniex, but BTCUSDT does not mirror exactly BTCUSD on Bitstamp (most volume).
RRR
NZDJPY might be a great reversalWaited patiently for NZDJPY to reach Resistance ~83.50
I thought it would reach it yesterday so I was LONG~82.8
TP1~82.9
TP2~83.4
Now good Risk-Reward-Ratio (RRR) on the Reversal SHORT.
Conservative Stop Losses to be put above the time-high at 83.75
And... see how this plays out!
Basic rules for trading my Swing levelsBASIC RULES FOR TRADING MY SWING TRADE LEVELS :
SL/PT
For every swing trade I use different SL. It is because I search the chart for the best place for the stop loss order.
My PT depends on how far my SL is. Ideally the distance to PT is more or less the same as the distance to my previously determined SL (if I choose SL for example 100 pips, I use PT also around 100 pips). This is because I like Risk Reward Ratio close to 1:1. However, there are more ways to trade my swing levels. Here are some with very good results:
a. Risk Reward Ratio 1:1 : When trading this way I don’t move my SL. There are only two possible outcomes: full SL or full PT.
If you don’t feel that agressive you can move your SL in simillar way like in intraday trading i.e.: move SL below/above the reaction or at BE when you are about 70 – 80 % in open profit.
b. Risk Reward Ratio 1:2: You try to gain 2x more than you risk. When price reaches 50 % of your profit you move your SL below/above the reaction. For example: your SL is 120 pips so you want PT 240 pips. When the price moves 120 pips in your favour (50 %) you move your SL below/above the reaction. This method has very good results but is quite mentally challenging.
c. The same as previous one with the exception that you don’t move your SL below/above reaction but at your break even level.
d. Risk Reward Ratio market dependant: Risk Reward Ratio in this method ranges from 1:1 to 1:2 depending on the market conditions. This requires some skill to determine how far the move could go. I use this method when I want more than 1:1 but don’t want to go for Risk Reward Ratio 1:2 because I think it is too risky. My most frequent risk reward ratio with this method is around 1:1,5
*I use limit orders when trading swing trades.
Macroeconomic events
I trade my swing positions even during significant (marked in red) macroeconomic news. There are so many of them every week that if I wanted to quit my position before every such event the position would just rarely have enough time to reach my PT which is usually over 80 pips far.This approach may look a bit agressive but it is working nicely.
There is one exception: I close all my swing positions and all pending orders before the most significant news. Those are news that are issued by central banks and concern their monetary policy. Here are some of them:
a. Monetary Policy Statement and BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)
b. FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate (USD)
c. Federal Funds Rate and Official Bank Rate (GBP)
d. RBA Monetary Policy Statement and Cash Rate (AUD)
e. RBNZ Rate Statement and Official Cash Rate (NZD)
f. Bank of Canada Rate Statement and Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report (CAD)
g. Minimum Bid Rate and ECB Press Conference (EUR)
h. Some other significant news concerning Brexit, US presidental election, significant news concerning Grexit, etc...
*If you trade your own swing trades with SL tighter than about 50 pips I suggest you adapt the rules and close the trades even before less significant macro events.