Bearish RSI divergence on NasdaqHello everyone,
I just found a bearish RSI divergence on weekly chart of Nasdaq. RSI (14) on February 5 was at 73.05 and 72.91 on February 26. Close was 15990.66, now is 16274.94.
In addition there was a bull cycle of 18 bars on weekly chart from March 13 2023 with price increase of 31.54 %, current cycle from October 23 ended with 29.96 %.
And there is a high probability of a drop after reaching the ATH. See June 18 2015, just 4 days after a drop occured with a low on July 7, then another ATH was on July 15 August at 5231.94, this is just 1.01937 % above ATH from 10 March 2000 at 5132.52. Then signiffant drop occured with a low on August 24 at 4292.14, this is 82,03 % of ATH.
Rsi-bearish-divergence
NASDAQ Moving Lower (1W)NASDAQ Weekly
Price Chart
After forming a double bottom in late 2022 the NASDAQ bounced and has melted up from its lows approximately 48% confirming that it was more than just a bear market rally. Most recently the NASDAQ has run into resistance (Light Red Box) and has descended roughly 3% past a minor trend line on the daily chart (not shown). Shorter term EMA's are beginning to even out (12-day / 26-day) indicting the beginning of a change in the direction of price action which will most likely move lower towards the target supports (Light Green Boxes). If the bottom support (Red Solid) is broken (pretty big "if" at the moment) then the possibility of breaking the long-term trend line (Yellow Solid) will come into play, however at this point it is premature to assume this comes to fruition.
Relative Strength Indicator
The major trend line (Yellow Solid) highlights the divergence from price action beginning in May 2022 and confirming the double bottom ending in December 2022. Most recently the RSI has remained elevated above the 70 line indicating a strong trend, however, the RSI has fallen back below the 70 signaling weakness. The RSI most likely moves down toward the major trend line and major support (Red Solid) from this point. Considering a cradle is in play with the resistance and trend line crossing, it will more than likely bounce with price action allowing the price to attempt one more move higher but will ultimately fail along with RSI failing to make a higher high and confirming price action. If the support and trend are broken it is most likely game over.
On Balance Volume
OBV bounced along with price and RSI in December 2022 and continued higher while making two consecutive bull flags confirming the movement. The OBV has failed to move higher after encountering resistance (Aquamarine Dotted) while retesting the major trend line (Yellow Solid) and seemingly has begun to move lower (emphasis on begun to). It is also notable to mention that a minor trend line (Yellow Dotted) has created a cradle that the OBV has so far failed to break. If the major resistance (Red Solid) is broken then it is basically game over, but we have two areas of support (Light Green Boxes) that will need to be broken first. The major resistance has had previous breaks which led to major downturns that can be seen in December 2000, February 2005, and September 2008 (all shown above).
TDLR;
Just want the meat and potatoes huh? Don't worry our entrees always Seem Legit. Price action recently hit resistance and has begun to move lower while EMA's begin to flatten. There's a 3% move down from a minor trend line on the 1D (not shown). The RSI is showing a bearish divergence after remaining elevated over the 70 line and beginning to move lower. The OBV looks to be forming a double top, and has run into resistance from a major and a minor trend line. Don't forget that this could take months to play out since this is the weekly chart.
What Seems Legit?
Possibly a bounce here from the support formed Jan - Mar 2022 in conjunction with the 12-day or 26-day EMA, retest the recent high, fail to break it and begin to move lower. It might just push lower due to the RSI on the 1D moving below the 50 line (analysis of the 1D has been posted).
"History doesnt repeat itself but often it rhymes" -
- Tap the 50-day EMA and carry on (2019)
- Crash to the major trend line and carry on (2020)
- Break the major support on the OBV and head lower (2000, 2005, 2008)
Chart Key
Yellow Solid = Major Trend Line
Red Solid = Major Support
Aquamarine Solid = Divergences
Red Box = Major Resistance
Green Boxes = Supports / Target Areas
$BTCUSD Price is Too High IMO- Technical Anal. Into the HalvingThere is a lot of excitement about COINBASE:BTCUSD as the halving is now less than 7 days and 1,000 blocks away!
However, I'm still looking at one more price dump that needs to happen. There is a bearish divergence occurring with LH on the RSI and HH on the price. You can see it happening twice on the price chart as the RSI continues to make LH and LL and price has two patterns of HH and HL. For some reason the Bulls have really been successful in keeping the daily RSI in the overbought range >70 since Friday, and preventing a correction after that big plump. At the start of Monday the RSI actually dipped below 70 and it looked like the price was going to dump. (Went to about ~$8500) But it did not close below 70 and now has since been making a "step down" patter on the RSI (as you can see on the chart). I really think these price "pumps" we are seeing these past few days are not "natural growth" as they say. If you look at the history of the RSI it has never stayed in the overbought region as long as is now. The BB is starting to consolidate and the candlesticks do not appear to be breaking out of the BB.
The $BTCUSD weekly RSI also showed RSI 70 resistance and is now moving down/sideways as well.
So I'm waiting for a dump until the RSI can correct comfortably below the 70, as we see bullish patterns again on the RSI. My guess is we are going to test the ~$7900 Support as this is the current 100 & 200 day SMA. The question is will this happen before or after the halving? Historically there is a dump following the halving so maybe $BTC will stay overbought until after the halving. My previous thinking was that we would see a correction dump, followed by a bull rally leading up to the halving and a dump right after. But now I think it could be either way.
**Very new to this, I would appreciate any constructive criticism and alternate viewpoints**
SPX500 Short. RSI Divergence and RSI TrendlinesTake a lok at the divergence btween the RSI and Price charts with its recent highs. There's also the Trend lines on the RSI that are testing below the Resistance trend hopefully will be a long term hold as the SPX needs to take a damn break.
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Short Position Confirmation Signal on 1H XBTUSD, BitMEXThe Market is testing for third time a major resistance level and gives us a sell signal for my previous idea on the same pair, daily chart. We have Major Structure Level on a HTF and TTF as well, RSI Divergence, Triple Top and we are on Overall bearish trend based on 1D,4h HTF. I think I'll jump in , wish me luck ! :D
Bitcoin (BTCUSD): 3 key info. to keep in mindThe 4 hour timeframe of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is shown in this analysis and commentary is provided below based on the numbers marked on the chart in an ascending order.
(1) Bitcoin bullish price channel that arose from a Head and shoulders bottom (inverted Head and shoulders) pattern that confirmed after price close above ~$6,869.60.
The implication of the Head and shoulder pattern based on price projection has run its course leaving the current bullish channel in Bitcoin (BTCUSD).
Also adding to the current bullish scenario is the break above the long term bearish trendline with price action establishing higher highs and higher lows.
(2) ~$7,554.80 and $7,296.60 indicate support region for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) with price reaching the top of the channel at ~$8,500.10. The horizontal support region is well within the bottom of the channel, which increases the chance of a possible sell off that should target the support region as mentioned above. Price reaching and consolidating around support implies higher price that should see Bitcoin move above $8,500.
(3) The green line marked on the price chart and on the RSI indicates a bearish divergence which suggests also that the current bullish momentum has run out. It is therefore better to have momentum confirm the resumption of the bullish trend before establishing long (buy) positions.
District0x Long Opp-- RSI trading As you can see I've been playing DNT like an absolute fiddle. I see this as a great long opportunity because I still consider DNT undervalued in terms of market cap, and think it has a lot of room for growth. Since its initial pump, it's been staying faithfully within the ascending channel while drawing down between fib levels of resistance. I definitely see DNT remaining in this upward channel for at least until it recoups the initial losses to the ATH, then I will revise this idea accordingly. Not much opportunity to backtest the RSI settings on this one, it's only been on the exchange a week or two. However, I'm looking at the hourly chart with 18 periods in the RSI and as you can see the negative divergence highlighted in red signaled the end of the run.
I'm using 24 periods in the STOCH RSI to include a larger time frame, smooth the indicator a bit and provide fewer false signals by accounting for more of the macro trend. When a divergence appears here, it will be more reliable than on the other RSI indicator.
Watch for any breaks below the long term trend line in green.
DJIA/DOW JONES short idea (m30/H1)Dow Jones INDEX:DJY0 formed a bearish Wolfe wave.
Being supported by RSI divergence at m15-m30 timeframe and significant stopping volume at point 5, it appears to be a good sell entry point.
Crossing line 2-4 supported by increased volume should confirm the move South.
Opened 3 positions at 22049/50, SL 22167, TP 21878
GL All!
GBPAUD ShortLovely retrace on the daily to the golden Fibonacci level of 618. Complete rejection, in addition to rejecting a key support/resistance line at the level of ~1.64.
1. Rejection of 0.618 Fib level on the daily retracement
2. Rejection of ~1.64 level
3. Massive RSI divergence across all time frames (4h and below)
4. 4H RSI is extremely high (~80). Only happens a few times/year. Typically leads to a massive drop.
No target set yet, but according to Fib extensions, 1.58 looks doable, especially with Brexit talks next week.
FX_IDC:GBPAUD
FX:GBPAUD
OANDA:GBPAUD