PIDILITE INDIA, ANALYSIS!!a monopoly stock, with great returns in a year, is the greatest thing to have.
a detailed analysis is written down:
firstly , the red trend, is the original trend past corona crash.
now since the markets had become bullish post corona crash, it has formed a new trend, and that is drawn by dark black line. the red line resistance, has now become support of stock.
after the rally, markets were consolidated, and the stock was moving sideways. then came the june- sept rally 2022, since then markets got consolidated, and became volatile.
since then from 3 months, stock is forming a good traingle pattern, there could be a breakout.
moving to next point,
since the stock is bottom of its trend, this makes sure that is in its support zone, a good pullback was show today.
RSI ANALYSIS: average time of stock's rsi moving is from 50-70. currently the stocks rsi is 50, this says that unless there is a bear market for pidilite, the stock is bottom off. this again shows a bull move, coming.
i predict that, if volume not supporting the price, and if INDIA'S bear market for shorter term, continues, stock could fall further, but since the stock has been mostly bottomed out then if stock started showing a positive move, then one can take some swing positions, and may exit around 2800. if it breaches the 2600 support of traingle formation, then i see downside till the 2500.
i hope that stock would move about 7% upward.
Rsi_divergence
NIFTY ENERGY, FALL OF 13%this fall could take a bit more time, then drawn on chart, but from chart we could clearly see that nifty energy is overvalued.
in all time frame, the rsi currently is at 60, the average, or the mostly rsi being in the chart is around 50. although, it has been falling, and yet following a triangle pattern. there could be a downside, fall.
the dark black line is the trend, which is drawn from 2004''s trend till its ATH.
the trend should be followed by the indices. adani stocs could fall, they have made the index to go a lot upside, in the short term, there could be a lot volatility, and in coming months, the index may falling by 13%.
reliance is somewhat discount(weightage- 35% in nifty energy),
NTPC also fall in a good amount.
in 5 year time frame, rsi is also showing a good trangle pattern. if any breach on downside of support, will result in start of bear market, for nifty energy.
i am saying volatile because
reliance is discounted, NTPC, could go up by 5-7% then fall, and adani stocks are rarely unpredictable, so this may cause the index to move up-down, causing volatility, but in longer term, it looks overvalued, and will fall about 13%.
VOLTAS in the buying ZoneVoltas is forming divergence, however not as strong as desired. But it gives a good buying opportunity for positional trades here. I will buy 25% of my intended investment for Voltas here and keep buying if new lows and divergences found. But, I wont buy and just hold what I have bought if it moves up from here.
There is no stop loss, as I will keep averaging for another 75% and then hold.
One year target at least 20-30%
Will keep updating !!!
UNIUSDT 4H Interval- Targets and StoplossHello everyone, let's take a look at the 4H UNI to USDT chart as you can see that the price is moving below the uptrend line and we are still below trending as well.
Let's start by setting goals for the near future that we can take into account:
T1 = $5.53
T2 = $5.72
T3 = $5.89
T4 = $6.04
and
T5 = $6.26
Now let's move on to the stop loss in case the market goes down further:
support zone from $5.44 to $5.14
SL2 = $4.28
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that the energy is heavily depleted on the 4H interval, the MACD indicates a local downtrend, while the RSI is at the lower end, which could potentially indicate upcoming increases.
GBP/USD - Bearish ReversalGBP/USD is in a bullish trend. Price action is currently testing an important resistance zone.
The Bearish Bias is based on the following confluence:
Horizontal Resistance Zone
Rising Resistance
Bearish Divergence on RSI (1D, 4H, 1H)
Trade safe. Hit like & follow for more analysis.
TSLA Daily RSI Divergence and Hurst Cycle Nest of Lows I've been anticipating the nest of lows (Hurst Cycle Analysis) since the beginning of November and thought we hit it at $166.19 on November 22nd. (Obviously not.)
Turns out that bears have been on the right side of history (near-term history).
Not saying we're 'going to the moon' but a rally seems to be due for two reasons.
1. RSI bullish divergence (yellow lines on the chart)
2. The anticipated nest of lows (rudimentary rendering on chart with sine waves) is overdue and I'm thinking that today's low of $155.31 is the Hurst cycles nest of lows (54 month and all lower time cycles) I've been anticipating.
Because of the above, I'm seeing prices move up at the start of an uptrend up to the 54 month cycle. Depending on where this 54 month cycle falls in the longer 9 and 18 year cycles, it could be a strong uptrend supported by higher time cycles, or a muted uptrend that will be halted by the downward cyclic movement of the longer 9/18 year cycles.
I've been studying Hurst cycles for just a couple of months so any insights are appreciated.
Neutral trend in VET and a small RSI divergence - Short TermHello friends, I hope you have a good week ahead. In this analysis, I expect a short-term upward swing in VETUSDT because of RSI Divergence, which has moved up to the EMA to begin with, and looks like it will return to previous support. Because the main trend is neutral at the moment, but the EMAs are going down. what is your opinion?
In the long term, I only see the price decrease in this coin.
GOING SHORT in AUDUSD BY TRADING STARTEGYBearish Indications
1. Lower Highs and Lows
2. Three Black Crows on LH
3. Significance Resistance and support area
4. Head n Shoulder Reversal Pattern
5. 0.6591 and 0.66903 fib levels restest on 1D TF
6. Significance Bearish Divergence
Bullish Indications
1. December Remains positive for the last 3 years
There are more bearish indications so I will open a short position by managing proper risk/reward which is 3% of my portfolio
XMR short- as you can see the XMR formed a huge falling chanel at daily time frame but ..
- there are rising wedge formed inside - also divergence defined: CCI, MOM, MACD, RSI (source macd histogram)
- before breakout of falling chanel we maight see back movement to middle of the channel or lower (the 0.5 level of Fib is near 139)
USDJPY Short From H1 Supply Zone ( + 3,7 RR)A clean trade on US Dollar vs Japanese Yen was taken on December 5th and here is it's full breakdown:
We see an example of Drop-Base-Drop market movement. We took a Base of this movement as an Supply zone and went into shorts with the goal at the local low, because:
1) Fibo discount level (0.62)
2) Clean supply zone
3) Correlator DXY was showing short signal too
4) Supply zone on a resistance level
5) Imbalance to fill in
6) Price tapped the zone on a EU session
7) RSI divergence on M30
The TP wasn't lower due to the premium zone and more imbalance laying above. Typically, we wouldn't take this trade due to this factor, but all 7 reasons were solid and we were right.
If you like such type of content with explanation, like this post and leave a comment!
Bitcoin's Ultimate Reversal is about to ensue.For the first time in years, we have witnessed a diversion in Bitcoin's RSI, which could possibly mean a huge reversal in BTC's price. Here is my point of view about this:
This is the RSI Multi-Length, which is a type of RSI that varies its length. For simplicity's sake. I’ll be referring those as just RSIs, because they behave as an RSI, just a bit different.
As you can see, Bitcoin's RSI is currently diverging, which possibly means a huge reversal is about to happen. The last time this has ever happened on a downtrend was in late 2018 - early 2019:
Bitcoin's price skyrocketed after this divergence, which likely means it’s happening again. Now onto the candlesticks:
As you can see, the trend is currently weakening, and that’s why it caused the 3 months of ranging market. When it broke downwards, it hit a new lower low, but this time even weaker than before. You can even see the volume weakening over time. Because of the RSI Divergence, Bitcoin has so much potential to explode and pump to the moon. You can even see that at the end of the 2018 crash, there was a lot of ranging.
In conclusion, we might see a reversal in BTC's trend, and finally prove that Bitcoin is not going to zero. As a final side note: Even the rainbow chart says Bitcoin is super undervalued.
This is not financial advice, and you are free to give your opinion about my research and do your own. Thank you for reading this study.
:)
Ethereum’s 145-Days Cycle Calls for a Rally in DecemberSince the start of the year, Ethereum's (ETH) price has followed a 145-day low-to-low cycle that now calls for a rally in December. Historically, the Ethereum price has a clear seasonality, with a tendency to produce high median returns in December.
ETH 145-Days Cycle
This cycle shows ETH's tendency to bottom every 145 days or so. ETH's price has followed this cycle very closely as follows:
• On January 23, 2022, we had the first major low of the year.
• 145 days later, we had the second major low for the year in mid-June.
• On November 10, 2022, Ethereum printed another low, which is precisely 145 days from the previous low.
The last 145-days cycle low also coincided with the FTX-driven crash, making it more relevant.
We can distinguish an almost perfect symmetry between ETH's peaks and troughs, and the 145-days low-to-low cycle can also be observed as measured from high to high. There has been a 133-day high-to-high cycle since the start of the year.
This means that every 133 days, we can expect the ETH price to make a high as measured from the previous high. If we project the 133-day cycle from the most recent high (August 14), we can expect the next cyclical high to develop on December 25.
This Logarithmic Chart Shows Fantom at Key IntersectionThe weekly Fantom (FTM) chart exposes a massive logarithmic channel that shows the FTM price at a key intersection between the bottom of the channel and a multi-year support level. An analysis of the FTM price action behavior within the logarithmic channel may reveal its next move.
FTM Logarithmic Channel
Long term, the FTM price remains locked in a logarithmic ascending channel. By connecting the previous peaks and bottoms, we can outline a clear ascending channel that shows potential future directions of FTM price.
In the short-term, FTM is already bouncing off the bottom of the channel. The bottom of the channel also aligns with a multi-year support zone between $0.15 and $0.16, which adds more confluence to this price area.
FTM Bullish/Bearish Cycles
The channel’s middle boundary played a major role in delimiting FTM’s bullish and bearish cycles. When the FTM price broke below the middle of the channel, we entered a bearish cycle.
We can also note an almost perfect symmetry between the length of the bullish cycle and the length of the bearish cycles. On average, FTM price has experienced a 60 week cycle.
If we project the same 60-week cycle into the future, we can expect FTM price to break the middle of the logarithmic channel by mid-2023, which would also be the start of the next bullish cycle.
RSI Oscillator
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has the tendency to call the breakout of the middle channel in advance. A break above the 50 midpoint can potentially signal that the bottom is set in place.
Looking forward: The first resistance level comes near $0.42 level followed by the $1.0 big psychological level.
CHZUSDT - SHORT - BEARISH DIVERGENCEHello Hello Trader ,
Please if you like the ideas , don't forget to support them with likes and comments.
Thank you very much.
Here we go ,
I want to tell you about the CHZ-USDT hidden bearish dívergence.
On this chart ,
We can see, while the price is going down, the RSI is moving up. This is called bearish divergence. So it's likely for the price to continue going lower on a short-term basis.
All further details are shown on the chart.
Goodluck!
#AUDCAD potential long term selling opportunitytake a look at where price currently is sitting on and the long term resistive cluster around price...
price at the moment is testing a bearish weekly channel resistance line and also at weekly high which means if the downtrend in weekly scale wants to resume price cannot close above this high. although that price can whipsaw above it but it can't close above it.
for taking a position depends on the kind of a trader you are say risk averse or risk seeking you may enter now or wait for a more and clear confirmation in lower timeframe. and perhaps waiting to see a shift in market structure or chart pattern formations.
Also we can see a bearish divergence between price and RSI indicator in Daily time frame.
SPY Reversal ShortSPY has retracted to the fib level of the mid August to mid October downtrend.
IT has stalled at the .618 Fib level while the MACD and RSI indicators are
showing bearish divergence. All in all this foresees an end to the bear market
rally. This seems to be a good entry for put options with near term expirations.
Stop loss of 5 and targetting the Fib Levels of the retracement down from
the uptrend that followed Covid in April 2020 through 12/25/21.
RUN Solar Stock Uptrending from earningsRUN is benefiting from the federal incentives policies. As shown on the chart
Price has risen 48% since the earnings report which was quite favorable.
It is consistently above the Ichimoku cloud and is now in a consolidation.
I see this as a good swing-long setup with the stop loss under the cloud
or instead wait for a pullback. The target would be $37 at the swing high
in mid September or when relative strength hits 80 and shows a bearish
trend.
Everything I've learned about the RSI BINANCE:BTCUSDT
In this post, I'll make an attempt to share everything I've learned over the Relative Strength Index (RSI) Over the past 24 months.
Nothing described in this post is financial advice, it's just me, sharing thoughts and ideas with you.
nb: this post is more suited for traders and investors that are already educated about the RSI Indicators.
A brief introduction about the indicator itself :
The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis. RSI measures the speed and magnitude of a security's recent price changes to evaluate whether it's better to buy, sell, or wait.
The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph) on a scale of zero to 100.
The RSI is probably the most used oscillator in finance nowadays, by both retail traders and institutions, hence meaning that when used well , it can be used as a great edge to profitability.
RSI popular uses :
- An asset is usually considered overbought when the RSI is above 70 and oversold when it is below 30.
- The RSI can give us insights on a potential trend's loss of momentum or validity when the price pivots levels are diverging with the RSI indicator (hidden and regular divergences)
- The most popular RSI length is 14 periods.
My findings
1. Overbought and oversold: myth or reality?
RSI's 30 and 70 levels never proved themselves to be a strong enough edge for me to be used as a standalone signal for trade entries.
As an example, just look at the irregularity of the results you would get when using just these zones :
My take on it is that as a price oscillator when it crosses into extremes, it simply means price momentum is at extreme levels. To me it's basically like a mountain cyclist in the middle of a race: he might very well go faster and higher, however, the quicker and higher he goes the more unlikely he is to keep up with that speed. Eventually, he might either decrease its speed or even go backward.
What does this tell us ?
The RSI 30 and 70 levels seem to be better used when used as timing indicators. For example, the 70 and 30 levels could be used as a filter for a trader to eliminate market noise when using a trend reversal strategy (mean-reversion). For trend traders, the levels could be used to timing signals where they'll start looking for price to do a pullback (consolidation) to get in the trend.
My experience using the 30 and 70 levels as exit signals however has been better (when it comes to using it as the only signal for a trade exit).
Say you are long on BTCUSD, in profit, and you get an RSI closure above 70. Well, in that case, you could exit 50% of your position and wait for the oscillator to cross down the 70 levels to exit the rest (as the overbought and oversold zones are rarely a defining factor for trend reversals and corrections).
2. Divergences in the overbought and oversold zones :
The lower the time frame you are trading on is, the higher the noise when it comes to divergences, especially with volatile assets such as BTCUSD. So you might want to filter out most of the ones you see to only take the best ones.
On the 15M and 5M timeframes, on BTCUSD, I find that on average about 1/3 of the divergences I see play out. However, we are not expected to take every divergence we see.
Here's what has helped me get better results with divergences :
- When approaching supply and demand zones, especially the higher timeframe ones, we might want to be more aggressive with the divergences we enter into. As the hit rate is not always amazing, the R:R is usually much better, and if the trade works out, it might give you great results which accounts for the low win rate.
- If you want to increase your win rate, I also find that going for higher timeframes is usually better when it comes to divergences.
- Take only divergences where RSI divergence's first pivot point is over 70 or under 30. Ideally, you don't want the noise to go below 60, or above 40, so that your trade has the necessary momentum to play out.
- For extra confirmation, wait for a break of the noise level to enter the trade.
- Regular and hidden divergences play hand in hand creating a form of momentum equilibrium. Hidden divergences always create regular divergences and vice versa. Hence a hidden divergence can be considered an early pullback warning to get in a bigger-picture trend.
- Regular divergences tend to play out better than hidden divergences. This is especially true when the volume is decreasing, or after a longer period of consolidation when volatility has been contracting and might be about to expand soon.
- Regular divergences in strong trends can be both a disaster and a treat. "The trend is your friend". This saying is especially true here. However, 2-3 drives of regular divergences are a great indication of a potential reversal, with enough confirmation factors to produce (often time) a great entry.
- The angle of the trend line between divergences pivot points, both on the price chart and the RSI, can be a good indication of the severity of the divergence occurring.
- The ideal lookback period for detecting divergences for me has proved to be between 5 and 28 bars. (Below 5 bars is not enough to confirm a true pivot point for me and above 28 bars has probably already played out in past price movements).
- Like all edges, using a divergence strategy always produces better results when used in confluence with other signals. I find the best confluences happen when divergences occur: alongside a stochastic cross, near medium-slow moving averages, near horizontal supply and demand zones, alongside volatility expansion, when the volume is decreasing (meaning market makes are in disagreement with the move occurring), near Bollinger bands 2.5 to 3 standard deviations (period 20).
- Convergence between your timeframes and higher timeframes is key to understanding how to better choose your trades. Try to play the big divergences but enter smaller timeframes divergences.
- When you lose a divergence trade, don't get disappointed. Jump back in because often time, and price will need to do several divergences before getting in your desired direction (however, be careful not to jump in tilt mod. Know your win rate and R:R and keep your money management serious. You'll get blown out if you start tilting on this, especially if you trade reversals with divergences, as it's difficult to get the right timing every time).
3. RSI as a trend filter?
- I've found that in trending markets, when RSI's Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crosses above the 50 line, it's an indication of an uptrend and vice versa. However, this is less effective in ranging markets as there's more noise, hence more invalid crosses.
- I've found that in trending markets when the RSI line crosses above the EMA (I use a 12 period), it's an indication of an uptrend and vice versa. However, this is less effective in ranging markets as there's more noise, hence more invalid crosses.
- As an indication of the trend's direction, I don't find any value in using bullish and bearish control zones. The only use I can find them is when using them for divergence levels filters.
This is the end of the first post of this 2 parts series. There's just so much more you can discover about this indicator that it simply cannot be constricted to a few lines of writing. However, you are welcome to take a few of my findings and go test them out using replay and backtesting. See for yourself, and find your balance.
Most of my learnings have been made through screentime, trial, and error, backtesting, mistakes, and research.
Have a good day,
Arthur Girard
TRXUSDT - Long Position Looking at the chart we can see a double bullish divergence pattern on the RSI and the MACD.
For the entry wait until the price has reached the entry point shown in the chart.
We expect for the price to go up and hit the targets.
All the details are shown on the chart.
Goodluck