Raytheon Oversold, Divergent. RTXImmediate targets 87, 82, 79. Invalidation 100.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
RTX
Ex2, Buy the Rumor Sell the NewsLet’s look at the recent news with Ukraine.
Anyone who bought the US rumor about Russian aggression profited in weapons manufacturing stocks from December to present day.
This is example is not meant to lean in any direction of morality as much as it is meant to show how news hints at the direction of the markets.
- The US has been working of possible Russian invasion since December 2021
- Biden publicly proclaimed this warning on Jan 27
- Invasion started last week.
Raytheon Technologies is up 20% from December 2021. Seeing new all time highs
- On Dec 20 $RTX has double bottom and golden cross on Jan 6
- Currently the price is consolidating at upper resistance,
- Upward movement likely to continue if NATO anxiety over Russian aggression will most likely continue to bolster the price of weapons stocks for now and into the near future.
RTX - Raytheon TechnologiesRecent breakout, pulling back in an orderly fashion to the 20-day line, exhibiting relative strength to the market indexes as they continue to falter.
Look for a bounce off of the 20-day line that clears Tuesday's (2/22/2022) high with a stop loss just under Tuesday's low.
2/13/22 RTXRaytheon Technologies Corporation ( NYSE:RTX )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Aerospace & Defense)
Market Capitalization: 142.598B
Current Price: $95.27
Breakout price: $94.60 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $94.50-$89.40
Price Target: $99.80-$100.60 (1st), $126.00-$127.40 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 48-52d (1st), 540-560d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $RTX 3/18/22 100c, $RTX 1/20/23 100c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.26/contract, $7.15/contract
Post 10/26 Q3 FY21’ Earnings Analysis$MMM, $AMP, $GOOGL, $GE, $AMD, $COF, $HAS, $V, $TWTR, $UPS, $RTX, $NVS
$MMM - 3M - reported EPS of $2,45/share - beat estimates of $2.21/share - revenue of $8.94B +7.09% YoY
Organic local-currency sales up 6.3% YoY
Operating CF of $1.9B
Adjusted FCF of $1.5B (20%) YoY
Returned $1.4B to shareholders in dividends
Industrial FCF tops estimates
Narrows FY21 EPS outlook - trims full-year earnings view on supply chain challenges
Down (0.09%) after hours
$GOOGL - Google Alphabet Class A - reported EPS of $27.26/share - beat estimates of $19.89/share
Revenue of $53.62B
Top Line growth of 44%
Ad Revenue of $53.13B up 44%
Revenue from Cloud Division of $4.99B up 45%
Reported a $188M gain on investments up 623.1% YoY
Down (0.22%) after hours
$GE - General Electric - reported EPS of $0.57/share - beat estimates of $0.24/share - revenue of $18.43B down (0.5%) YoY
Improvements in FCF performance & growth in earnings - despite weakness in revenues
Bottom Line up 50% YoY
Sales suffered from weakness in Healthcare & Renewable Energy segments - partially offset by gains in Aviation
Organic & Industrial Revenues down (1%) YoY - Aviation Revenues up 10% YoY
Up +0.01% after hours
$AMD - Advanced Micro Devices - reported EPS of $0.73/share - beat estimates of $0.67/share - revenue of $4.31B up 54% YoY
Adjusted Gross Margin of 48% - in line with estimates - up 44% YoY
Capital Expenditures of $85M
Computer/Graphics segment revenue of $2.4B up 44% YoY
Q4 revenue estimates raised to $4.6B
Down (0.41%) after hours
$COF - Capital One - Reported EPS of $4686/share - beat estimates of $4.99/share - revenue of $7.83B +6.1% YoY
Earnings Surprise of 31.42%
Beat consensus EPS estimates past 4 quarters
Revenue rise reflects loan growth
Net credit card charge-offs improved in Sept
Down (4.01%) after hours
$HAS - Hasbro - reported EPS of $1.96/share - beat estimates of $1.70/share - revenue of $1.97B +10.88% YoY
Operating Profit of $367.9M up 9% YoY
Adjusted Operating Profit of $389.6M up 6% YoY
Net Earnings of $253.2M up 15% YoY
Adjusted Net Earnings of $271.2M up 5% YoY
Supply chain challenges weigh on top line
Further reduced debt & maintained a strong cash position - repaid $400M of debt & funded quarterly dividend
Up +1.46% after hours
$V - Visa - reported EPS of $1.62/share - beat estimates of $1.53/share - revenue of $6.56B up 27.45% YoY
Earnings Surprise of 5.88%
Surpassed consensus EPS estimates past 4 quarters
Announce boost in quarterly dividend
Down (2.60%) after hours
$TWTR - Twitter - reported EPS of ($0.54) - missing estimates of $0.02/share - revenue of $1.28B up 37% YoY
Reported a net loss of ($537M) vs. $29M in FY20' due to a legal settlement - does not expect to recoup the full revenue loss
Ad Revenue rose more than 41% YoY to $4.14B up 6% YoY
Number of Monetized users grew by 5M - user base up 13% YoY
Apple's privacy changes to iOS 14 has less of an impact than expected
$UPS - United Parcel Service - reported EPS of $2.71/share - beat estimates of $2.55/share - revenue of $23.18B
US Domestic Package Revenues of $14.2B up 7.4% YoY
Bottom Line up 18.9% YoY with strong performance across all segments
Top Line up 9.2% YoY drive by up beat demand for e-commerce related package deliveries
Operating Profit of $2.97B up 23.4% YoY
Up +0.52% after hours
$RTX - Raytheon Technologies - reported EPS of $1.26/share - beating estimates of $1.08/share - revenue of $16.2B up 7.7% YoY
Sales of $16.2B - missing estimates of $16.9B - up 9.9% YoY
Operating Profit of $1.3B - up 209.5% YoY
Bottom Line up 125% YoY - attributable to higher YoY revenues & operating profit
Newly disclosed quarterly dividend paid $0.51/share on 10/19/21 - represents a $2.04 dividend on an annualized basis
Down (0.46%) after hours
$NVS - Novartis - reported EPS of $1.71/share - beat estimates of $1.64/share - revenue of $13.03B up 6.2% YoY
Net Income of $2.76B up 43% YoY
Net Sales $13,03B up 6% YoY - volume contributed 9 percentage points to sales growth
Down (1.38%) after hours
Will the Airlines finally take off??GREETINGS!
I've made several posts on Rolls Royce and Raytheon the past few months. Ultimately, we remain bullish for another leg up, but the back-and-forth price action has been exhausting.
Why are we bullish? Well, my strategies involve a simplistic basis of eliot wave theory which shows airlines and major indices have another leg, but I also consider other non-voodoo indicators. For example, Look at the put/call ratio or general market sentiment... EVERYONE IS BEARISH . The contrarian should be salivating.
I'm here to provide an update on the RTX play. The primary count is still active, although price targets have changed slightly from the previous post (see related ideas below to see the DD).
Here I think we are compressing into a triangle wave 4 of C, resulting in a delayed takeoff. I have the 1.272 extension at $95, but we could go to the 1.618 near $105 which would also result in a sharp peak out of the channel, which we often look for for blow-off tops.
Triangles can be annoying to trade, depending on your time commitment available for your capital to be tied-up. This is because intermediate waves often consist of fakeouts! In this case, I think it's time to accumulate! I will be purchasing RYCEY and RTX (at these prices) as my primary exposure to the airline sector.
Good luck!
ROLLS ROYCE - WYCKOFF THAT MIMICS THE 2018 BTC RALLYThis post is to demonstrate a variety of trading techniques and relationships amongst similar patterns. Although this is focused on RYCEY, I provide reference to RTX as a representation of airline engine manufacturing and reference the 2018 BTC consolidation.
Lately I've been studying the Wyckoff Distribution and found eerie similarities that are worth sharing.
2018 BTC Comparison of Wyckoff Distribution
Take a look at the 2018 BTC consolidation. We have clean Wyckoff distribution with the absence of the Spring since there was a lot of buying pressure to turn the market around.
Now check the recent RYCEY consolidation.
Here is the ideal Wyckoff distribution
image.binance.vision
Moving Average Strategy
Although we typically look for a Spring inflexion point to mark the end of accumulation, sometimes it just isn't there. The similarity between the daily 50ema and 100ema is what leads me to be inclined to bet that we won't have a Spring this time. Notice how we are pinched right between them and they are near crossing?
Eliot Wave Interpretation
Almost everyone watching RYCEY is aware of the 94% discount off ATH's and we are no where near pre-pandemic levels. In this chart, I've combined Eliot Wave principles to show completion of the ABC correction with subdivision of wave C - we have wave 1-2 extension landing right at the 2.272 which is what we look for for wave 5 completions.
Wyckoff Interpretation
In addition, the Wyckoff interpretation demands that you pay attention to volume! Look at this huge uptick in volume from the end of last year when the dividend was cut, and it still remains relatively high to this day. These are never before seen levels of volume with relatively no price movement since the big drop down into the $1 range. All of this hints that Rolls Royce is ready for a huge turnaround. My first target is $3.
Using Competitors as a Proxy
As initially mentioned, we are still looking to finish wave 3 for RTX which I am using as a proxy for RYCEY and the larger airline industry. Another leg up could correspond with a breakout of RYCEY and consolidation above the breakout zone as RTX pulls back for a wave 4. You can find that idea posted below in the related ideas.
Link to
RTX Post
More info on Wyckoff distributions
Other examples of Wyckoff Distribution
Thanks for reading!!
RTX - A PROXY FOR AIRLINES/AIRLINE INDUSTRY (RYCEY, AAL, BA)Airlines have had quite the run up since the low. Warren Buffet is way past his prime.
BUT WTF IS THIS PRICE ACTION!?
I've done a fair amount of "research" into the numbers here and here's my best attempt to make sense of it.
We all know the COVID correction was the E wave of a triangle. That was obvious. You see it on every major index.
Triangles happen in wave 4's... so now wtf is this "impulse??"
The 3-3-3-3-3 wave structure points towards some type of diagonal for the bullish count.
This sort of chop is going to wash people out if you don't have a game plan.
Here's mine.
It's always critical to pay attention to RSI or some other momentum indicator to spot corrections.
We know RSI rarely exceeds ~70 in corrections and rarely goes lower than ~30 in uptrends. We will use this rule to define most of the PA.
We define the primary channel shown in bold.
and subchannels for each subwave in lighter color.
Annotations shown on chart.
We see waves A and B of 3 clearly.
When you get into the subdivision of C, that's where you have to pay attention to detail.
Two conflicting things are shown.
By EW rules you have another leg up. This also makes sense from the geometry of an expanding diagonal - you want to put in that awkward third wave.
This would align with a channel break which is typical.
However, if you look at the 4 hr RSI, you are already getting a reaction at 70. For this reason, I am not swing trading this last "potential wave up."
I am waiting for a retrace of wave 4... might take a few months.
However, I am still holding my long-term RYCEY as it is possible that stock pops during this last leg up.
You usually see w4 marked by the channel bottom, and w5 must be larger than w3.
For this structure, that would lead to a >50% gain.
Here is my Boeing BA chart as reference which shows a very similar sort of relationship in movement, albeit coiling down triangle rather than impulse.
RYCEY
Possible continues trend up, with new ATHPlease note this is only an idea, invest at your own risk.
The price shows a nice and steady move up high, supported by trendlines . There should be support by the 20MA, which can act as good entry point. Additionally, there should be a support at 84, which acts as key support. If this breaks, setup might become invalidated.
A safer play can be to wait an approach to 20MA, and ride it up to 92. Then expect price to eventually test 93 resistance.
If can surpass 93 resistance, expect new ATH .
Happy to get feedback on my idea.
3 potential stocks to expand your portfolioThinking about which financial instrument to add to your portfolio is always a challenging task, especially in a market where almost everything is overbought. You may already own these three stocks, but if you don't they have good technicals and fundamentals to get in or to add up. Starting first with the Ferrari. At first, sounds like an exotic stock, but the race-car manufacturer is still on track. And it's not because of the newly born millionaires from the latest rise in the price of Bitcoin ...
Let's take a look at what's under the "hood" of Ferrari. Technically we have a well-formed uptrend and Yesterday that trend was tested at the earnings which were good. Volumes activity was big since the bottom formed after the first lockdown. The candle formation ended with a pinbar . MACD and RSI are still lagging, but the trend holds. Fundamentally the financial look of the company is stable in revenue and EPS aspect. Also, the racing car manufacturer is decided to take on the electric cars market, as well as delivering three new models.
Next is Nio. Already a familiar company and attracting more and more investors. Earnings are on the 9th of March. Revenues and EPS are shaky, but investors are betting on the long-term success of the company. Ford terminated their contract to manufacture electric cars in China, but Nio managed to cement their position in the Asian country. MACD here is lagging, but RSI is moving above 50 and the trend is intact. The price is currently forming a bullish flag on the daily chart and if it is triggered we may head towards the $70 range.
Last, but not least - Raytheon . Technicals are looking better here as RSI is moving from oversold territory and above 50. MACD has a crossing and the histogram is starting to move into positive territory. The uptrend is intact. Earnings passed, although they are a bit disappointing, financials are looking stable for the company. The company recently won a $290 million contract with the U.S. Navy. That will attract more revenue for the company and will keep it busy in the long-term.
About to take flight?I have been waiting for some of the most unloved parts of the market to pick up and that includes RTX and Aerospace. A decent reversal might be setting up if todays price action is any indication of what could come in the future. Stock is still well below highs in June and I think the outlook is better now then it was then. If we can hold this support zone and break above the trendlines the stock could be heading higher toward 76. Below 64 means the play is invalid.
Not investment advice
LMT should benefit from defense billLMT's jet is specifically mentioned in the bill which should result in a large sum sale to boost their profits. This is a good long term hold as well as a good trade short-term for the recently passed defense bill via congress overturning Trump's veto. RTX, which is Raytheon and united technologies combined in a merger, both organizations have had longstanding relationships with the military.
I see LMT returning to recent highs which makes for a pretty decent trade and it could recover further for those that go long.
RTX - LONG - 5YR+ HOLD - VALUE! NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR NOR IS THIS FINANCIAL ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE BUYING AND SELLING. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
MILITARY INDUSTRY IS STEADY CONTRACTS -- EVEN DURING A PANDEMIC
SOLID TREND UPWARDS TOWARD ATH'S
TRADING AT A MASSIVE DISCOUNT -- 100%+ GAP BETWEEN ATH AND MARCH LOW
SL AT 56-52
T1 67
T2 75
T3 84