Remember December 2018?5 year yields are even higher now, plus Powell is doing 3 rate increases in a row
- 0.5%
- 0.75% (yesterday)
- 0.5 or 0.75% July
I'll let you decide where small caps are going. My guess? Same level as December 2018, and that's if we don't wind up in a recession.
Close to oversold on the weekly though
Rty!
RTY - Resistance (0.5) Turned Support0.5 is acting as a support now as price has moved way above it, prior to this it was a resistance point as price tested it
This bullish assumption is supported by the RSI, showing an Inverted H&S pattern, just completing the Right Shoulder
This 0.5 fib line should act as a support now
RTY Daily Support Shows it is holdingThe RTY Daily time frame is in a down channel. The
market hit the bottom of the channel and found
support. The market is now pushing bullish towards
the top of the channel price point 1936.2 about
+803 ticks above the market. It will be a good
idea to turn to the one hour time frame and to
look for long ideas in the buy zone.
RTY - JunkCo IndexIndependent Producers remain in implosion mode.
Bankrupt Companies feigning existence worthy of a Bid.
Chasers will be wrecked again 1610 fails and it's going
to lose 90%+ into 2023 October.
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For now - the Flamingo is having a bit of difficulty getting
gamblers back to the tables.
A complete horror show... this JUNK.
Elliott Wave View: Russell 2000 (RTY) Turning Lower post FOMCShort Term Elliott Wave View in Russell 2000 (RTY) suggests the decline from March 29, 2022 high is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from March 29 peak, wave 1 ended at 1966.6 and rally in wave 2 ended at 2060.90. Index then resumes lower in wave 3 towards 1903.50 and rally in wave 4 ended at 1957.60. Final leg lower wave 5 ended at 1834.50 which ended wave (A).
Wave (B) rally is proposed complete at 1951.85. However, the Index still needs to break below ave (A) at 1834.50 to validate this view. Internal of wave (B) unfolded as a zigzag in lesser degree. Up from wave (A), wave A ended at 1908.20, pullback in wave B ended at 1867.80 and wave C higher ended at 1951.85. This completed wave (B) in higher degree. Index has turned lower in wave (C). Near term, expect wave 1 to end soon, then Index should rally in wave 2 to correct the decline from wave (B) before it resumes lower. As far as pivot at 1951.85 high stays intact in the first degree, expect rally to fail in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
DOW / NASDAQBear Market signals persist.
When the DOW begins to outperform on the downside,
we have a clear indication of a lengthy BEAR Market.
It's just beginning.
Counter Trends are a normal course in prolonged Trends.
The ONLY real reversal... QE:
Global Central Banks began withdrawing Liquidity via RRP's since July of 2021.
The contraction made a controlled contraction below 0 into a negative range
well below the Peak Monthly $1.5T down to $300B and on down to 0 in January,
going - $250B during the 3rd week of January - they have maintained the drain
since this time... it is remained between -$180 to -$255B to the present.
Lows into October 2023 imho.
RTY +1,400 Ticks long ideaThe RTY one hour time frame is in a large side
ways range. The market is at the bottom of the
range. The market is below the short term down
trend line. It will be a good idea to wait for the
market to break and close above the short term
down trend line before looking for long ideas.
Entry: Counter trend line break bullish above
the bottom of the sideways range.
STOP: In the sell zone, below the low that
formed at the bottom of the range.
LIMIT: 2055.7
Once or if the market closes above the short
term down trend line. As long as the market
stays above the bottom of the range. It will
be a good idea to turn to the five minute time
frame and look for tunnel trader long /
destination trader long ideas towards 2055.7
Elliott Wave View: Rally in Russell 2000 (RTY) Expected to FailShort term Elliott Wave view in Russell 2000 (RTY) suggests that the decline from November 8, 2021 peak is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse structure. Down from November 8, wave (1) ended at 2136.8 and rally in wave (2) ended at 2288.60. Index then resumes lower in wave (3) towards 1892.40 and wave (4) ended at 2137.10. Wave (5) lower is in progress with the internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave (4), wave (i) ended at 2119.30 and wave (ii) rally ended at 2131.60. Index then resumes lower in wave (iii) towards 2079.10, wave (iv) ended at 2102.60, and final wave (v) ended at 2062.80. This completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 2107.90 with internal subdivision as a double there Elliott Wave structure.
Index then resumes lower in wave ((iii)). Down from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 2055.20 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 2068.10. Index then resumes lower in wave (iii) towards 1999.50, and bounce in wave (iv) ended at 2031. Final leg lower wave (v) ended at 1978.80 which completed wave ((iii)). Bounce in wave ((iv)) ended at 2030.30 with internal subdivision as expanded flat. Up from wave ((iii)), wave (a) ended at 2015.90, wave (b) ended at 1966.60, and wave (c) ended at 2030.30. Expect the Index to extend lower in wave ((v)) before completing wave 1. Afterwards, it should rally in wave 2 to correct cycle from March 30 peak in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the next leg lower.
RTY UpdateIt appears the market has lost all appetite for money losing "growth" stocks that aren't growing. My trade strategy is still valid, short garbage on any pops, they can pump futures but they can't make people buy. Let the algos hold the bag.
I think every garbage stock is going to SFIX it's way to single digits, just gotta avoid the pumps, remember the 3 day short squeeze rule (today was the 4th day, lol)
Euros are bullish and could pump futures, but I don't think gap direction matters if today is any indication. I think the market will be oversold for the Fed press conf Wed, so avoid holding a position Wed afternoon regardless of trend pattern.
This drop has nothing to do with Russia, it was DOCU that caused it. I expect a follow through Monday, though it might reverse in the afternoon. Liquidity for crap stocks disappearing quick, look at AFRM, SMSI, DOCU, etc
RTY - Daily Russell 2000Looking about cooked for now.
2/5 Setting up.
The 2282 was a brilliant SELL, it simply collapsed
from there 250 Ticks.
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Small Caps have no real hope, nor access to Capital.
Later in 2022 after 5/5 completes, this Index will lose
90% of its Price Value.
RTY One Hour Long IdeaThe RTY one hour time frame is still in a down
trend. The market is making lower lows and
lower highs. According to the daily time frame.
The market is expected to push bullish towards
2314.5 about +1,412 ticks above the market. It
will be a good idea to wait for the one hour time
frame to break the short term down trend line
and enter into the buy zone. Before looking for
long ideas.
Entry: Counter trend line break bullish in the
buy zone.
STOP: In the sell zone.
LIMIT: 2314.5
Once or if the market enters into the buy zone.
As long as the market stays in the buy zone. It
will be a good idea to turn to the five minute
time frame and to look for tunnel trader long /
Destination trader long opportunities.
RTY One Hour Long +1,412 TicksThe RTY one hour time frame is in a down trend.
The market is making lower lows and lower highs.
The larger time frame shows the market should
push bullish towards the monthly up future
resistance price point 2314.5. It will be a good idea
to wait for the one hour time frame to break the
down trend line and enter into the buy zone
before looking for buying ideas.
Entry: Counter trend line break bullish in the
buy zone.
STOP: In the sell zone
LIMIT: 2314.5
Once or if the market enters into the buy zone.
It will be a good idea to turn to the five minute
time frame and to look for tunnel trader long /
destination trader long ideas towards 2314.5