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Russell 2000 - COT Based Strategy Suggests Downside AheadDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Russell 2000 (RTY) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in RTY if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for equities to go down in September COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: POIV & UO Sell Signals Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CME_MINI:RTYU2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
Russell 2000 (RTY) Looking to Break LowerRussell 2000 (RTY) Cycle from 4.3.2023 high is in progress as a 5 waves diagonal. Down from 4.3.2023 high, wave (i) ended at 1752.7 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 1825.43. The 1 hour chart below shows the chart starting from wave (ii) peak. The Index then resumes lower in wave (iii) towards 1731.7. Internal subdivision of wave (iii) unfolded as a 5 waves impulse. Down from wave (ii), wave i ended at 1794.8 and rally in wave ii ended at 1814. Index resumes lower again in wave iii towards 1733, wave iv rally ended at 1748.80. Final leg wave v ended at 1731.7 which completed wave (iii). Index then corrected in wave (iv) with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (iii), wave a ended at 1762 and wave b pullback ended at 1742.20. Final leg wave c higher ended at 1796.50 which completed wave (iv). Index resumes lower again in wave (v). Down from wave (iv), wave i ended at 1720.4 and wave ii ended at 1778.9. Wave iii ended at 1716.70. Expect wave iv to fail and Index to resume another leg lower to end wave v of (v) of ((i)). Afterwards, Index should rally in wave ((ii)) before it resumes lower again. Near term, as far as pivot at 1825.43 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3 ,7, 11 swing for further downside.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Elliott Wave Projects Zone where Russell (RTY) Rally May FailRussell 2000 (RTY) ended a 3 swing corrective rally from 10.13.2022 low at 2016.90 on 2.2.2023 high. From this level, the Index declines lower with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 2.2.2023 high, wave ((i)) ended at 1906.2 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 1970.10. The Index resumes lower in wave ((iii)) towards 1728.5 and wave ((iv)) rally ended at 1800.8. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 1708 which completed wave 1 in higher degree. Rally in wave 2 is now in progress to correct cycle from 2.3.2023 high in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the decline resumes. Internal subdivision of wave 2 is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 1779.4 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 1750.40. Wave ((c)) higher is in progress as 5 waves. Up from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 1808.2 and wave (ii) pullback ended at 1785.30. Expect the Index to extend higher before it completes wave ((c)) of 2. Potential target higher is 100% – 161.8% fibonacci extension of wave ((a)). This area comes at 1821.4 – 1865.4 where the rally in Russell may fail and the Index starts to resume lower. As far as pivot at 2.2.2023 high at 2016.9 stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more downside.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
RTY partial update for the next Jan 16th week I hope everyone is having a great weekend. RTY is in the bull channel all week, similar to NQ’s rising wedge. As you can clearly see, RTY is way oversold on the 4h chart (MACD, RSI); this will get a strong rejection of the next resistance zone imo Looking at the cycle,s we still can push into Tuesday am open to test the major trendline around 1915-18 (depending on landing time). At the same time, it can fall apart straight from the open. I think we extend on Sunday (gap up?) or into Monday (Futures will be trading open till noon) - The primary support and target for the next week is 1847-52, from where (if it holds by the 20th) we should see a last push up into the Jan 24th high. If that support is broken, it should test the 1800 level and below next. - The target box for the final move-up is at 1542.5-1952.5RTY. ........ SPX and NQ will be updated on the site Enjoy your weekend
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by RealTima
1
RTY is overextending on the upside and downsideI haven't look at RTY for a while now, till the Fri close where I shorted it at 2015.50, willing to add if we stretch into the maj resistance zone right where the upper Bollinger is, that is also a 2.618 extension off the lows RTY is overextending on the upside and downside compare to SPX . We hit 50% retracement off 2020 lows in June and I see the whole way as 5 down and 3 up here. We hit 110MA on Weekly as well as 200MA on Daily. If it's acting as it was on the way lower, SPX might not even reach 200MA in this case. We are at the very top for this bear market rally, it can still extend up to 2084-2108 We are also at/near 61.8 off Mar high and Jun low as well as near 50% off the ATH and Jun low retraement I will update the target for the Oct low after I see confirmations of the top.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by RealTima
6
QQQ Nice breakoutTook QQQ 311C for tomorrow as discussed in yesterdays post. With AAPL AMZN after hours reaction, these calls gonna open up 300% tomorrow. Also took AMZN 130C for ER. i will be done at the open. There is going to be a lot of FOMO tomorrow in the markets. Make sure u sell into strength tomorrow. Bears might throw in the towel after these ER reactions and probably bulls who ever sidelined are going to chase as well. So better to take profits and wait for a pullback.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by savage_Trader
QQQ near swing highsRight at last swing highs. SPY and IWM are already above these highs. Closed above these highs. QQQ right on it. Double top for now but Watch it tomorrow for either a confirmation of double top and pullback or a breakout over 308.55. We have AAPL AMZN reporting after hours tomorrow. We are right in the middle of congestion zone shown in the highlighted area. Generally whenever we enter into the congestion zone, there is a 80% chance we go to the other end of congestion zone. In this case around 312 - 314.60.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by savage_Trader
RTY - ahh... faked you out.... not higher.... lower comingRTY - "everyone" (including me) was faked out by the false breakout. Now it's back into the long term wedge (also appears to really have been a large ending diagonal or Wyckoff Distribution pattern). With the breakdown of Crypto over the weekend, RTY is heading to back test some prior levels. This will be healthy in the long run, but painful for those heavily long. Based on the 2 Anchored VWAPs placed on this chart, I see a MINIMUM pullback to the 1950 area on RTY. Further basic Elliott Wave analysis may suggest some slightly lower zones as possible. Regardless, the AVWAP zone shown here will be good for AT LEAST a hefty bounce.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by RBS2024