Rty_f
Disparity Between Indices ContinuesIn this video, I discuss the different performance between leaders like the Russell 2000 + Nikkei 225 and laggards like the S&P 500 and German DAX, as well as what's driving it. I also update my thesis on the upside breakout on the S&P 500 and how I'm looking to trade it if/when we get a move above 3815-3817.
Elliott Wave View: Support Area for Russell 2000 (RTY)Elliott Wave View of Russell 2000 (RTY) suggests the rally from July 31,2020 low has ended at 1605.70 high as wave 3. Up from July 30 low, wave ((i)) ended at 1482.60 high and wave ((ii)) dips ended at 1467.80 low. Index then extended higher in wave ((iii)) towards 1552.60 high. The internal subdivision of wave ((iii)) unfolded as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave Structure. Wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 1510.60 high and wave (ii) pullback ended at 1493.70 low. Rally higher in wave (iii) then ended at 1551.60 high, followed by wave (iv) pullback, which ended at 1543.40 low. Wave (v) then extended higher and ended at 1552.60 high.
Afterwards, the Index did a pullback in wave ((iv)), which ended at 1534.20 low. Finally, wave ((v)) higher ended at 1605.70 high. This final move completed wave 3 in higher degree and ended cycle from July 31 low. Index is currently correcting that cycle within wave 4. The correction is unfolding as a double three correction, where wave ((w)) has ended at 1560.90 low. The bounce in wave ((x)) ended at 1589.60 high. Wave ((y)) remains in progress right now. As long as 1451.10 low stays intact, expect the dips in 3,7 or 11 swings to find support for more upside. The 100-161.8% extension of wave ((w))-((x)) where ((y)) can end is at 1516.76-1544.71 area and is shown with a blue box. That area if reached later can produce 3 waves bounce at least.
Small Caps Could Continue Outperformance$RTY_F: as absurd as it sounds from a fundamental point of view given that 40% of the companies in the index are unprofitable and it's carrying a 65x forward P/E, the technical picture is very clear: small caps are putting in a medium-term rounded bottom vs. $NQ_F.
Elliott Wave View:Russell 2000 (RTY) Reaching Short Term SupportAs a larger context, the rally in Russell 2000 (RTY) from 3.19.2020 low took the form of an impulsive structure. Up from there, wave (1) ended at 1180.3 and wave (2) pullback ended at 1029.7. Index then resumed higher in wave (3) and ended at 1265.6 and wave (4) pullback ended at 1148.5. The final leg wave (5) ended at 1374. This move also completed wave ((1)) in higher degree and ended cycle from 3.19.2020 low. Wave ((2)) pullback is in progress to correct cycle from 3.19.2020 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the Index turns higher again.
The 1 hour chart below shows the correction in wave ((2)). The internal subdivision is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((1)) high at 1374, wave (A) ended at 1220.1 as an impulse in lesser degree. Wave 1 of (A) ended at 1353.6, wave 2 of (A) ended at 1370.60, wave 3 of (A) ended at 1236.5, wave 4 of (A) ended at 1258.80, and wave 5 of (A) ended at 1220.10.
Up from there, wave (B) bounce ended at 1341.6 as a zigzag in lesser degree. Wave A of (B) ended at 1303.7, wave B of (B) ended at 1245.6, and wave C of (B) ended at 1341.70. Wave (C) is now in progress as 5 waves impulse and can see more downside to reach 1150 - 1187 area. This is the 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension of (A)-(B). From this area, Index may see buyers for more upside or 3 waves bounce at least.
Elliott Wave View: Pullback in Russell Should See SupportShort term Elliott wave view in Russell (RTY_F) suggests the Index ended the correction from January 17, 2020 high in wave (4) at 1609.56. It has since resumed higher in wave (5) and the internal subdivision is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure, The Index still needs to break above wave (3) at 1715.1 to avoid a double correction in wave (4). However, other US Indices such as YM_F (Dow Jones Futures), ES_F (S&P Futures), and NQ_F (Nasdaq) have broken above the previous peak, supporting more upside in Russell as well.
Up from February 1 or wave (4) low, wave ((i)) ended at 1629.8 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 1619.80. Index then resumes higher in wave ((iii)) towards 1678.8 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 1665.90. Index resumes the final leg higher in wave ((v)) towards 1695.20. The 5 waves move higher completed wave 1. Index is now within wave 2 pullback to correct cycle from February 1, 2020 low before the rally resumes. As far as pivot at 1609.56 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
RTY1!, Small Caps in the Breakout ModeA strong bullish daily candle confirms the breakout of the significant resistance level. The small caps entered a balance breakout mode. Usually, that would lead to continuation pattern until the projected area top is not reached. The bullish pattern would help the S&P to move higher or at least to remain at the current prices. The small caps offer better upside reward. If you don’t trade futures you can trade IWM ETF instead.
05/03/2019
$RTY_F $rut $spx VIDEO ANALYSIS - Small Caps Mega Breakout!While the large-cap stock indexes like the $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA have been running higher, they are now at resistance and should stall out or at least slowdown. Small-cap stocks have been building a base for a mega rally that could make the large-cap run look like chump change!
See more analysis on the small-cap sector: Click Here
Small caps lead rallies and sell-offs, this is no different.Skilled traders watch all the charts to assist them in identifying characteristics that can assist them in understanding price moves, key support/resistance levels, and price patterns. This IWM chart should be on everyone’s radar at the moment. Where the IWM finds support, so will the other US stock market indexes.
The IWM setup indicates we may only see a 5~7% downside price swing before support is found. We’ll have to watch how this plays out over the next few weeks/months to determine if the $144.25 level is true support or if the lower $137.00 level will become support. Either way, the downside price swing appears poised to unfold over the next few days/weeks – so be prepared.
I authored a research article about this pattern setup on February 17, 2019. You can read it here.
My forecast for RTY this weekTrend is up still until we lost that lower trend line. We are more than 50% back from the ATH and the sell off reversal area. Love that little doji that formed on Friday. We most likely break in the direction of the high or low with strength. My upper target on RTY is 1530.7 then 1560 area.
Lower areas of support 1498-1500, lower 1478-80, and 1465 (and 18 day sma).
I am expecting a more significant pull back in the next few weeks. However always let price discovery be your guide. Trade the trend until it fails.
Cheers! :-)