The Rise (mean reversion) of the Russian RubleThe Russian Ruble is represented on an inverted, logarithmic scale vs.the G/S & G7 currency basket, where a rise in price levels on the chart indicates an irise in the Ruble.
For all the widely known reasons the Russian Ruble remains a remarkably accurate yard stick of the march of imperialism and the states of various hegemonies ("Globalization", in short) for the past 20 years.
The Russian Federation maintains 0 (zero) debt , a positive account balance, combined with what is most likely the largest horde of gold & foreign reserves outside (and insulated from) Western jurisdictions, making the currency remarkably stable - despite all the propaganda and wishful thinking to the contrary -, for the past two decades. (It has proven itself far more stable than other means or stores of value across the G-7. This is clearly a thorn in the side of others' continued imperialist aspirations.)
These facts simply highlight the present (and potential future) opportunity, wherein any significant deviation from the Median likely represents a significant trading opportunity.
LONG
p.s. On the contrary, the current vogue of wide spread and simple-minded speculations, heralding the rise of China and hence, the Yuan/Remninbi as the new, potentially global reserve currency, are so fundamentally flawed that entire books have addressed the topic as of late, examining it in great detail and with accuracy. I.e., a rapidly collapsing Chinese population, quickly followed by de-industralization and de-urbanization a stable, global reserve currency does not make! - Among other, inherently disqualifying factors.
Rublesignals
Ascending triangle on the USD/RUB pair. What to expect next?Hello. On the USD/RUB pair, a technical analysis pattern of an ascending triangle is forming.
We have two potential scenarios.
The first scenario is that if the ascending trend line is broken and the price consolidates below it we can expect further price decline to the Fibonacci level of 0.618 or 66 RUB/USD. On the chart it is noticeable how the support levels correlate with Fibonacci levels.
The second scenario is that the price breaks through the resistance zone around 78 RUB/USD and continues to move upward to 86 RUB/USD. This price range is a global resistance level. If you go back on the chart you can see how the asset approached this level back in 2015 and then underwent a correction.
This is not financial advice. Everything you do is at your own risk.
Time For Bulls To Gather Momentum at 44,500!!Weekly Time-frame
We are still in the Demand and supply area until one gives way either to the upside or to the downside. Trading area $48,000 to $46,000. We might end up having a dump this April fools and create a Flip zone instead of Rally Base Rally.
1D Time-frame
We are not yet overbought in 1D TF. But the rejection from $48,200 sting a lot that it's having hard time going back up. We can expect bearish candle today as we have a bearish engulfing candle stick pattern. Greed and Fear Index now at #52 still in Greed but this is bearish.
4H Time-frame
Confirmed we are staying inside the demand zone. Planning to flip it into a supply zone and start dumping. We will see if the bears will be able to flip the zone.
Double top breakout confirmed to the downside.
1H Time-frame
Just as I said before that we will be crossing in the thinnest part of the cloud. Now in 1h TF we can see we are crossing in the thinnest part indeed.
We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us!
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Disclaimer: Above Technical Analysis is pure educational information, not Investment Advice. The information provided on this post does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the website's content as such. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
USDRUB worst case scenarioif you haven`t read my first article when i expected the 86 level to be reached after the Russian ruble was no longer aligned to Crude Oil price:
or the 95 target after the Ukraine invasion:
this time i expect, considering all the sanctions and the fact that exchanges are selling USD in Russia for a price at least 30% higher than the forex market; i even saw a picture where 1 usd was selling for 250 RUB, then my prediction in 150 this time, or the dollar to be 2X stronger than it was at the beginning of this was.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
is it true that the US Dollar is already trading so high at the exchanges?
Is Bitcoin a safe haven in these times of uncertainty?
EUR/RUB & USD/RUB - Short SellWith high inflation above the Russia Central Banks 4.00% inflation target.
Markets are currently pricing in two interest rate hikes from the central bank over the next 6 months.
This will make short-selling EUR/RUB and USD/RUB very attractive to yield-seeking investors.
In this video, I break down both trades in detail.
The market has created a clear double top The market has created a clear double top on the fib retracement level and currently is testing a support structure.
Price is still supported by the ema 21 and the upper channel.
When the price will manage to break below the structure and consequently below the ema and also break the channel we can set a nice short order according with our strategy.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis, please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
USDRUB looking up 🦐The market after a long downtrend has now broke the trend line and currently is moving in a side range.
If the market will manage to break and close the resistance structure we can look for a long order according with our strategy with possible first target at the next resistance structure.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
USDRUBSo many talks about RUB and Oil last days.
Well, as for oil - was waiting this downtrend since January , a lot of people told me that im incorrect and USOIL will go up... now its about 30$ per barrel, and im sure that this is not the end ( ofc oil will make a correction before going down again).
And now ruble . In 2018 we've made wave (1) and whole 2019 was a correction in wave (2). As u can see, price made a pivot just in the golden zone (61% fibo). After that, rub devaluated for about 20% in a few days. You think that think that this is the end? As for me, I think that this is only beginning. So globally we have 3 possible targets (yellow lines) : 89, 113, 145. In my opinion 89 will be too small, so for me main target in wave (3) is 113.
Stay tuned, I think in future I will post a few more ideas about Russian ruble .
If u wanna to support this idea - like and comment it, please.
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.14I will keep this one quick as it is Friday afternoon... its clear that high beta has been in demand from some faster hands of late. Nothing of meaningful weight in the ladder, I think we will test the highs before pulling back. Another technical break to the topside in play with some strong US data. This looks set to test the highs in USDRUB for now. Tactical long on a breakout recommended.
You will notice how we never got the breakdown:
Buyers came in strong and seems happy to play the topside for now. A push from local banks in Russia as capital begins to pour back in will be enough to get us back to the 64.2 highs where I would look to cover and recycle shorts.
As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. Jump into the comments with your views on RUB!
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.12A very advanced playing field in commodities and commodity currencies and with offshore sharks on the sell side in USDRUB there is a lot more room to go. The highs at 63.50 will act as strong resistance while to the downside initial targets located at 62.7x, 61.5x and the final swing clear at 60. This is the same levels from the previous diagram:
No surprises sellers were fired up and ready to act again. There is a lot of room to the downside should we find a bounce into March for Oil. Happy to sit short and looking for a technical break with the NY open.
Good luck all RUB bulls, as usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming!