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DXY v's Brazil Russia India China B.R.I.C. CurrenciesNote how the two large pattern #HVF's kept you dollar long as the main directional trade from 2011 to 2022 But things may be turning around and this trade may, potentially be reversing. Often when commentators have given up on the idea of a multi polar world, end of dollar dominance , as price keep going the opposite direction. Is when the trade actually starts to kick into gear. These are major resource nations , with 40% of global pop. 30% of the land and well over a 1/4 of global GDP Would make sense to see this basket of currencies outperform our beloved Greenback.
TVC:DXYShort
by BallaJi
DXY: BRICS Creating New Reserve CurrencyHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. For the past eight decades, the U.S. dollar has been the dominant global currency following the Second World War. It has been widely accepted worldwide, with only a few exceptions, and is commonly recognized by the image of Andrew Jackson and the seal of the U.S. Treasury, making it the most recognizable export of the United States. The U.S. dollar became the reserve currency of the world following the Second World War, mainly because the United States was the dominant global economic and military power at the time. The Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 also played a crucial role in establishing the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency. Under this agreement, other countries agreed to peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar, which was backed by gold. This made the U.S. dollar a stable and reliable currency for international transactions, leading to its widespread acceptance as a reserve currency. Additionally, the U.S. had a large trade surplus, making it easier for other countries to hold dollars as reserves to pay for U.S. goods and services. The dominance of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency has been a source of both admiration and resentment among other countries and superpowers. Many countries have benefited from the stability and liquidity that the U.S. dollar provides as a reserve currency, allowing them to conduct international trade and investments with greater ease. However, some countries have also experienced the negative effects of dollar dominance, such as the risk of currency fluctuations and the potential for U.S. monetary policy decisions to have spillover effects on their own economies. The U.S. dollar was not only commonly used in international transactions but also widely held as a long-term store of value across the globe. Central banks worldwide held more U.S. dollars than any other currency. This resulted in low borrowing costs for Americans , which allowed middle-class people to buy homes. Furthermore, the U.S. government was able to incur significant debts without apparent consequences due to the dollar's global dominance. Americans may not have been aware of this situation, but it had a favorable impact on their daily lives. Occasionally, the Congress discussed the debt ceiling, but it seemed like an abstract topic that most people did not care about since America controlled the global reserve currency and could print U.S. dollars. This privilege made money cheap, and Americans enjoyed benefits that were not available to other countries. However, the thought of losing this dominance was too terrible to contemplate, and concerns began to arise around the time the Russian military entered Ukraine about a year ago. The consequences of such a loss would be dire, and it was a worrisome issue. The Russian military's invasion of Ukraine was destabilizing, as wars typically are. However, it was the West's reaction to the invasion that raised concerns. U.S. policymakers, led by USA President Joe Biden and supported by Republican senators, seemed intent on not only toppling the Russian government but also disrupting the post-World War II economic order that had benefitted the U.S. for decades. The sanctions weren't expected to harm the U.S. economy more than the Russian economy. Russia's economy is not heavily reliant on financial services but on natural resources such as oil, gas, iron, and coal . Despite the sanctions imposed on Russia, its Ruble remains stable against the US dollar, which suggests that the sanctions did not have a significant long-term impact on Russia's economy. The seizure of Russia's central bank's dollar reserves was intended to collapse Russia's credit system and cause bank runs, but it didn't happen. The USA did not consider the dangers when using the dollar, the sign of security and unity, as a weapon. The result of this is unsurprising, many countries lost confidence in the dollar. And so, Russia, Brazil, Pakistan, India, Malaysia, France, China, and Saudi Arabia are conducting business in currencies other than the US dollar, such as the Chinese currency Yuan. This is happening at a fast pace and shutting out the US dollar, which is losing trust from other countries due to its use as a weapon and excessive printing, leading to inflation and currency devaluation. 💭Final Thoughts 💭 We look to history to speculate on the future. As the saying goes, history repeats itself. During the First World War, the German government borrowed heavily to finance the war effort, resulting in a significant increase in national debt. The government continued to print money to pay for its expenses, which led to hyperinflation and a collapse of the German economy in the early 1920s. In 1923, the German mark was practically worthless, and people had to carry wheelbarrows of money to buy basic goods. This hyperinflation had a devastating effect on the German people, wiping out their savings and pensions and causing widespread poverty and social unrest. The situation stabilized when the German government introduced a new currency, the Rentenmark, backed by mortgages on agricultural and industrial land which restored some degree of confidence in the currency. The German government basically inflated their currency due to excessive debt accumulated from war. The United States has a similar history with wars, relying on the reserve currency status to recover from the economic damage of these wars. However, considering the large economical impact of Russia and BRICS's contribution the the economy, it could be catastrophic due to the current state of the US economy. The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are exploring the possibility of creating a new reserve currency as an alternative to the US dollar-dominated international financial system. The proposal was discussed at a virtual meeting of the BRICS finance ministers and central bank governors, with a goal to decrease the dependency on the US dollar and increase trade between member countries. However, no specific details were provided yet about the potential reserve currency. _______________________ 📢 Show us some LOVE 🧡 Follow for daily updates and trade ideas on Crypto , Stocks , Forex and Commodities 💎 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
TVC:DXYShort
by CryptoCheck-
53
Ascending triangle on the USD/RUB pair. What to expect next?Hello. On the USD/RUB pair, a technical analysis pattern of an ascending triangle is forming. We have two potential scenarios. The first scenario is that if the ascending trend line is broken and the price consolidates below it we can expect further price decline to the Fibonacci level of 0.618 or 66 RUB/USD. On the chart it is noticeable how the support levels correlate with Fibonacci levels. The second scenario is that the price breaks through the resistance zone around 78 RUB/USD and continues to move upward to 86 RUB/USD. This price range is a global resistance level. If you go back on the chart you can see how the asset approached this level back in 2015 and then underwent a correction. This is not financial advice. Everything you do is at your own risk.
by neverovv
Dollar slows for Thanksgiving or Christmas 2022Jerome Powell is the #1 Financial terrorist on Planet Earth right now, soon the powers above him will demand an end to his regime of Maximizing damage upon Working People around the globe Hyper financialization of all goods and services has proven to be a failed experiment. the global economy needs to organically re-organize and re-energize itself. One single un-elected US bureacrat is not suited to fix this calamity - and based on FED predications, analysis, and results of their actions - they are incompetent to the challenge at hand
ICEUS:DXYShort
by noam_chom
💶 EUR; Lowest Rate in 19 Years ( Risk of Energy Crisis )🆖As the risks of an energy crisis increase, the euro is nearing its lowest level in 19 years Today, the price of natural gas has increased by 9%, and the price of electricity for one year in Germany is 14 times higher than the level of one year ago. The numbers are crippling for heavy industries, with Germany's DAX down 2.3 percent today, the steepest drop in the global index. The euro has strengthened over the past six weeks as the US dollar weakened against a less accommodative Federal Reserve, but that rally appears to have come to an end. Meanwhile, Europe's economic outlook is rapidly deteriorating. The EUR/USD low was at0.9952 in July and is now about 20 pips away. If this rate breaks, the euro will hit its lowest level since late 2002.What is surprising is that the people of Europe have not yet realized how bad the economic situation will be. There is a lag in energy price increases that has not yet been felt and depends on different countries and contract structures, but there is a lot of difficulty ahead. ✌️ Good luck with your trading and investing and remember: Trade smart…OR JUST DON’T TRADE! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👉This analysis is my personal opinion ,not a financial advice ,so do your own research. 💚 if you're fan of my analyses please follow me , give a big thumbs 👍 OR drop a comment 🗯
by PRO_SMART_Trader
5
USD/UAN Ritual devaluation of the Ukrainian UAN. Situation nowRitual figures on the chart that were ahead of the events in Ukraine. The timeframe on the chart is 1 week. 57 weeks (12) Time 399 days 21 (management changes) Potential maximum channel height + 303% 57 weeks. 399 days. It all depends on how the price fixes in these important areas. Fixing the price above a certain zone will mean further growth of the dollar and the depreciation of the hryvnia. Target 1 zone + 47% 2 zone + 173% 3 zone + 303% A well-run crowd works like one foolish person. This graph shows the 1 day depreciation of the hryvnia in 2014 on the timeframe. At that time, there were well-known sad events in Ukraine. Maidan. Coup d'etat. The war in the Donbass. Detachment of the Crimea. All numbers in key areas are readable in meaning and not random. The schedule and non-random numbers in key areas were far ahead of events in the country. And not all the way around as the crowd thinks. On the chart, the timeframe is 1 day. The former ritual devaluation of the hryvnia. Growth 288 bar. (18) -666 402d (42) Destruction change. Maidan. The war in Ukraine in the Donbass in 2014. Detachment of the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine. + 310% (13 mirrored). The birth of a new government. In order to always manage the herd, it is sometimes necessary to fulfill the insignificant desires of the sheep, so that faith in the herd is maintained that the wolf is not a wolf, but just a sheep in sheep's clothing. In a herd, a person plays the role that the herd has formed and given to him. He is experiencing this role, he is comfortable in this role. Without this role, there will be the realization that he is a jerk, bio trash, one of many. Background player in a game. But when he is in the role, he is an important person, primarily for himself. _____________________________________________ Coup d'etat. "Maidan" and ritual figures. Coup d'etat. "Maidan" - Independence Square in Ukraine November 21, 2013 - February 22, 2014. Everything is clear according to plan with pedantic observance of all ritual terms for the owners. It is very important. As we see the numbers are not random. 21 = our century + 18-666 + 3 (the birth of a new one). 22 - change of what is. Pay attention to which digits of the pulses of the maxima. 13,111 33,711 The years for the implementation of this local project are also not random. 2013 (13 new management) 2014 (14 destruction of the old government). Not understanding people that they do not decide anything in their life, but are just fuel in someone else's game, just makes them that fuel _________________________________________________________________ Ukrainian bonds OBGZ and an hourly nuclear bomb for this country. The issue of OBGZ exceeded UAH 100 billion ($ 4.06 billion)! This is a nuclear bomb with a clockwork for the Ukrainian economy, which would work without the global financial crisis. The hryvnia will be in a very sad position. What do you think is the secret to strengthening the hryvnia against the dollar in the fall of 2019? The trick is issuing bonds of the internal state loan (OVDP) of Ukraine. For the first time in history, the issue of OBGZ exceeded UAH 100 billion ($ 4.06 billion) !!! The vast majority of bonds owned by foreigners are issued in hryvnia (an average of UAH 98.17 billion, or $ 3.61 billion). The rest are issued in dollars and euros. The Ministry of Finance on September 24 raised 13.2 billion hryvnias from the sale of government bonds. Most of which came from 5-year bonds. Reports the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. The total volume of 5-year government bonds reached 33.9 billion hryvnia. Weighted average rates of return were: for 6-month government bonds - 15.89% for 1-year government bonds - 15.09% Who does not understand all the salt that the state is forced to pay anyway! Even if there is a collapse of the economy! And he will be! Only default announcements give the state the right not to pay interest to investors, but then there is a risk of lowering the country's credit rating. And this is tantamount to default. As in this case, Ukraine will be equal in carelessness for investment with African countries. If directly without water, then the whole of Ukraine was completely sold for a temporary benefit before the financial crisis. All national enterprises and lands will be transferred to "investors" who will force Ukraine to pay debts on their investments. A default announcement will not save how the IMF will declare a loan to repay the same debt on bonds at a certain percentage. Ukraine owes huge amounts to the Navy. And every newly made temporary "king" is not averse to taking a loan from the IMF to appease the people during his reign. And what will happen then does not interest him. Do you think local actors in the government did not understand this? No, everyone understood and I am sure all these billions are already where they are needed. In the future, no one was planning to pay a percentage of income to investors in Ukrainian bonds, as it is physically impossible even without a financial crisis. Just local authorities took the opportunity. And it is clear that this was an order from above. _______________________________________________________________ EUR / RUB I also did the EUR / RUB trading idea several days before the price increase at the lowest entry point when confirming support and the zone, I think this is also relevant, as it is the same trash currency. Symmetric triangle. Trends Reversal zones. The situation is now. 2 target achieved + 32%
Long
by SpartaBTC
21
It's the market, babyINVESTMENT CONTEXT For the first time in over three decades Germany reported monthly trade deficit in goods, which accounts for EUR 1bn, against analyst expectations of EUR 1.2bn surplus. The spike in energy prices translated into higher import costs, while the sanctions imposed on Russia and China’s coronavirus lockdowns negatively affected exports Iran slashed the prices of its crude oil to stay competitive with Russia in regards to Chinese clients, in an attempt to maintain market share amidst OPEC's approved volume increases In the first half of 2022 coal imports in Europe increased by 35% on a yearly basis, earmarking the continent's struggle to cope with lower crude oil and natural gas supplies from Russia In June, the Caixin China General Services Purchasing Managers Index reached 54.5, beating analysts expectations of 49.7. Analysts appreciate the index crossing the 50-point threshold which separates expansion from contraction The ECB expressed concern on the potential overlapping amongst the EU member States in the matter of regulating cryptocurrencies. Aiming at "harmonizing" the bloc's policy-making on the issue, the bloc is about to implement Markets in Crypto-Assets, or MiCA, framework  After shedding USD 200mln assets in the past three weeks, Coinbase-backed crypto lender Vauld suspended trading and withdrawals. Meanwhile, Estonian cryptocurrency exchange capped withdrawals to USD 5k a day PROFONE'S TAKE European electricity prices hit record high levels, soaring on July 4 to EUR 325/MWh in Germany and EUR 366/MWh in France. European zinc and aluminum producers, whose activity hinges on energy prices, are struggling due to the combined effect of surging costs and falling prices on industrial metals as recession fears loom. Profs maintain bearish views on European energy, not ultimately considering that Nord Stream 1 pipeline will be closed for maintenance starting July 11. Elsewhere, French nuclear capacity stands at historical lows, since the country had to shut down for an indefinite period 12 of its 56 reactors due to unexpected corrosion of infrastructures. As a result, neighboring countries are now forced to burn additional gas to provide France with electricity, while all continent struggles to fill inventories before winter under mounting fears of further Russia's cuts of gas supply. PROFZERO'S TAKE What is a currency? To think of currencies in terms of supply and demand tends to be trickier than, for instance, commodities. After all, how can there be "demand" for money? What is the use for one, especially if foreign? And what is the return? In reality, it takes but to look at 2 pairs to understand the extend of supply-demand logics into FX markets. Looking at RUB/USD, we see right away that something must be off. The pair is now trading below its point before the war (61.08 vs. 75.45 on February 7), at a time when Russia had 9.5% interest rate and U.S. was still stuck at zero-rate. Today, the base rate applied by the Russian Central Bank is still 9.5% (after it shot to 20% a few days following the invasion of Ukraine), while that imparted by the Fed is 1.50%; yet, RUB is stronger than ever. Why? Because demand can't fully satisfy itself unloading RUB-based exposure (think of Russian equities held by international investors), while artificial demand for RUB has been created when Gazprom (GAZP) demanded energy bills to be honored in currency. Looking at EUR/USD instead, it is hard to justify the 15% slide on a yearly basis just by looking at fundamentals. While it is true that the Fed's monetary policy has been much more responsive to inflation than the ECB's, forward rates ought to be tilted to a sensibly stronger EUR due to more resilient growth in the area. Why is that not happening? The answer lies in the USD 4tn capitalization wiped from the S&P 500 and perhaps also the USD 2.1tn evaporated in the blockchain space - an unprecedented watershed of cash which sought refuge in cash USD-denominated deposits.
by ProfZero
M for (M)aybe invading a sovereign nation wasnt such a good ideaJust made kind of a prediction yesterday since some friends were interested in the RUB hitting the floor Original prediction made yesterday (3:42AM pacific time 28th) And then looked at today (also the idea has this anyway). Seemed pretty easy and I'm not sure where it will go from here or how far down it will go. It just depends on the war and any further sanctions, I guess. If it goes down like the Crimea timeframe, it should hit 0. Did you know monopoly money has a value? Since there are a number of them in each box, and they cost paper to produce, they are worth some fraction of a USD. Possibly, it could be worth more than the ruble soon!! Hope everyone stops this madness and people don't have to die.
Short
by sofie4
3
Patience on the Ruble with Olmec Strategy ENG / ESP ENG The Ruble faces strong resistance at the 0.0121 level and the question remains; Has it already flipped the previous level for support? In my opinion this has not yet happened and the entry remains in the same position as in the previous post. Personally I did not expect such a strong rally after the trend changed. I expected a much more aggressive selling despite the trend change given the combination of events on the ground and changes to natural gas purchasing agreements. By inverting the Price volume trend we can see more clearly that the current volume is unsustainable. I am expecting a 10 - 15% price decrease in the Ruble in the next few days. ESP El Rublo enfrenta una fuerte resistencia en el nivel de 0.0121 y la pregunta permanece; ¿Ya ha cambiado el nivel anterior por soporte? En mi opinión esto aún no ha sucedido y la entrada se mantiene en la misma posición que en la publicación anterior. Personalmente, no esperaba un repunte tan fuerte después del cambio de tendencia. Esperaba una venta mucho más agresiva a pesar del cambio de tendencia dada la combinación de eventos sobre el terreno y cambios en los acuerdos de compra de gas natural. Al invertir la tendencia del volumen del precio, podemos ver más claramente que el volumen actual es insostenible. Espero una disminución del precio del rublo del 10 al 15% en los próximos días.
Long
by ASX1X
BTC/USDT Long or Short? 22.3.16Bitcoin is in a trading range, and due to the Fed meeting, many traders are reluctant to buy and sell in the area. In my opinion, in order to enter the short and long positions, we have to wait for the price to break and stabilize. In the 1-hour timeframe, a pattern similar to the Waikoff pattern is forming that the price should move upwards to complete the pattern, but this does not mean the end of the downtrend. Bitcoin has a supply range of 45,000, which could increase to 50,000-53,000 if this range is broken and new news such as the China-Taiwan wars, Russia's use of chemical and nuclear weapons, etc. are not transmitted. But in the event of this news or an increase in interest rates by at least 0.5% bitcoin can move to the support of 29,000-30,000. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Sadegh Ahmadi: @SDQ_Crypto 📅 16.Mar.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please LIKE and COMMENT , It Keeps me motivated to do better❤️
by SDQ_Crypto
2
USDRUB worst case scenarioif you haven`t read my first article when i expected the 86 level to be reached after the Russian ruble was no longer aligned to Crude Oil price: or the 95 target after the Ukraine invasion: this time i expect, considering all the sanctions and the fact that exchanges are selling USD in Russia for a price at least 30% higher than the forex market; i even saw a picture where 1 usd was selling for 250 RUB, then my prediction in 150 this time, or the dollar to be 2X stronger than it was at the beginning of this was. Looking forward to read your opinion about it. is it true that the US Dollar is already trading so high at the exchanges? Is Bitcoin a safe haven in these times of uncertainty?
Long
by TopgOptions
2