AUDUSD UPDATEwe are still waiting for an objective break below our green trendline last swing standing (blue zone) to sell this one.
keeping in mind that price can still test the upper red resistance/supply zone before going downward.
but we will only look for sell opportunities on AUDUSD as price is approaching a rejection zone in red.
Rules
So what is the secret? Part 2. Going from begginer to pro.Hello, so first of all I mentionned in this idea what I think are the most important rules to keep in mind, and a guideline on how to build a system / a career:
In this idea I would like to show what I think is the end goal, and how I would advice someone getting there.
I saw a nice chart on the internet "How traders think versus How trading actually works", I modified it a bit, this is my view on the subject:
I would not know how to explain to a complete beginner, but I think I understand the beginners that already read a bit about all this.
Let me explain what is in this pie:
About the watching the markets... some... people... still deposit money to cryptopia. Exchange went bankrupt. "It's just FUD", "don't look at the news they might convince you not to H0DL". Crypto community is the perfect example of what not to do, just unbelievable. Complete bunch of idiots. People that deposit money to a broker/exhange that went down have nothing to do in this business, stick to watching tv.
If I had to guide someone I think going throught these steps would be what I would choose:
0- If they are eager to buy and sell with real money, go on a small account and sizes as small as possible. If they are already not able to control themselves, no point even trying. Cannot advance they have to be able to control themselves first.
1- Start just reading, watching videos. There is alot of nonsense, trolling, and just dumb ignorant people that give their opinion. So do not take anything for granted and absorb it all. There are some warning signs. Kid that went huge leverage and made 10,000% returns at once and starts calling himself the legend, the master of charts... Most people can tell this is dumb, right? I am not sure to be honest. Well at least 1/3 can I imagine. If you can't, go to step -1 and build your understanding of the world, common sense, some mathematics too especially probabilities.
2- I would make a feedback on what the person knows, I do this myself all the time. Re-learn everything make sure the foundations are solid and that it is all natural don't need to overthink it. But with experience it will really become natural. Decide what you like more (this will change with time) and start going in that direction. Also check if what you like (catching the falling knife bottom right before the trend reverses and riding it to the top) is possible (no) or just silly (yes).
2- Write a plan or a set of rules. How do you want to do this? Any system can do. Have a system that tells you what to look for and then detail it a bit.
Say the rules are 1- Define the trend 2- Find out what is driving it and where it could end 3- Risk factors 4- Should I hop on & when? 5- How to set stop loss 6- Exit
For each number from 1 to 6 you write how you do this. Does not have to be perfect.
3- I would suggest starting with a risk reward ratio not too high I just do not think it is a good idea to have a reward much greater than risk at this point. Try being right about the trend as much as possible, avoiding the really bad days, not to gamble, not to chase losers, understanding more how markets move.
Stick to 1 or 2 (2 may be preferable to not get bad habits) markets. Maybe Bitcoin (and some alts) since it is very popular and also very educational, as well as gold, or indices if you prefer. Indices good. I think this is what I learned the first. Story time I remember (I think) the first chart I analysed was Bitcoin in 2014. It had no support till 100 to 250$ yikes. I was already a bear before I was a trader back in 2014. First markets I learned about and watched were the stock markets. Every one was always super serious about how many points were up or down and afraid of a big crisis, even when I was 8 or so I was thinking "oh calm down dude".
4- Time for a break. Might as well do that after a lose spree.
5- Review past trades. What was good? What went wrong? What happened that day? Why? Why did the price go up? Down? Following people on various sites helps for this rather than just being isolated, well I think it does, but careful there are plenty of idiots let's call them that, that just attribute price action to the dumbest things. When you start breathing talking finance, it becomes easier. At that point you may be 1 year in, you should start to get a feel of the markets and understand better how they move. Focus on working on your strong points weak points average points :p
6- You should have refined your trading, and try having a profitable or at least break even strategy over a great enough number of trade that you know it is probably not just a lucky - on unlucky - run. Being non delusional is important. If you kept winning in a raging bull market, be aware of that. You are on your own and there is no one to tell you that. Well there is MrRenev but people do not listen. I think now you should focus on avoiding really risky trades such as have the potential for massive slippage or just ahead of some important report, weed out the bad ones. Also, you get better at holding when you should hold, and exiting when you should exit.
7- Now is the time to increase that risk to reward ratio. The best, the really top trades, they all have high risk to reward ratios. It is broken. It is like hacking. You can get very profitable this way. There are some opportunities where the odds are high even thought the risk to reward is big. One of the reason why I do not recommend this earlier is you lose 5 in a row you do not know if you made a mistake or it is all normal. Better have plenty of winners and try looking "ok so did I enter too early or not how far did they go" etc. You just have more to work with. I don't think going high reward/risk from the start is really a good idea.
Once you are good at picking winners, and weeding out the really bad ones, you can focus on raising your RR while trying to maintain a decent winrate.
If you manage to get a high RR, above 5, then maybe you can focus on increasing winrate a bit again. It might be time to start looking at a new market too, if you are comfortable with the 1/2 you started with.
8- Permanent learning improving, adjusting to new conditions. At that point you know what to do and it gets more specific.
* You can use an indicator if you like it, but chill out with the indicators my gawd. Most of them don't even tell anything you cannot see on the chart for yourself when you have some screen time.
Possible GBP/AUD short Position!!SMP TRADING
SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Chart time frame - H4
Timeframe - 1-3 days
Actions on -
A – Activating Event
Market will meet resistance in zone @1.864 - .... and fall to the @1.79. In order to enter, the pair MUST be in line with my Entry Procedure....
B – Beliefs
Market move towards the first Target 1 level @ 1.79
FX:GBPAUD
Trade Management
Entered @ Sign up for mentoring
Stop Loss @ Sign up for mentoring
Target 1 @ 1.79
Target 2 @ ....
Risk/Reward @ 6.1
Happy trading :)
Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !!
Join our Mentoring Program TODAY!! twitter.com
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This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
the bull-flag could still be intact. BUT WATCH OUTIF !! we still are in a big bullish flag, we will still need to finish the last C wave off the 5 wave. and remeber the rule. the C wave in the finishing 5 wave can be very LONG! wich means we will drop a lot. if this is what this pair is doing.
we can begin to by back in 0.31300 - 0.31150 range
if this scenario is playing out. I think we will go very green in next week
NOT A TRADING ADVICE!
A judgement call on the NIFTYI don't advocate breaking one's trading methodology or rules. However, exceptionally I say that one can exercise some common sense and judgement in taking a position (subject to an acceptable stop-loss).
This trade picture is one such exception. Elsewhere I would have said that one can make exceptions.
The phenomenal Successful Trading Plan 103 & 104SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLGY/PSCHYOLGOY
The phenomenal Successful Trading Plan 103/04
3. Trade Preparation
By concentrating on getting ready, the exchanging plans for the higher time allotments, the cash administration will dependably keep the proportion altogether. Trade proportion is the quantity of pips one may make versus the quantity for which one has a chance. Trade proportions for swing exchanging the H4 time span can be around +3 to +5 to +1 positive, which is incredible. However, on the D1 and W1 time periods, it can be +5 to as high as +50 to 1 positive.
4. Trading Rules
As with any business, money management, or in the case of trading, trade management, is a crucial element that needs to be addressed in your trading plan. Having a robust trading plan with predetermined trading rules will allow you to act subjectively in response to market changes. Trading is not about winning all the time; it is about effectively managing your trades, whether they are winners or losers. Unfortunately, many come to trading with a gambling mentality and do not exploit the advantages available when managing trades.
Do not risk one cent on the market until you have clearly defined each of your trade management rules.
Following are seven trading rules, which you must determine for each and every trade you make and some potential considerations for each:
1. Entry
2. Initial Stop Loss
3. Position Size
4. Re-entry
5. Trailing Stop Loss
6. Adding (Position Building)
7. Profit Taking Exit Strategies
For each one of these rules, you must have a pre-defined trading plan. You must know when you will enter the trade and execute your entry when the criteria are met. You must know your initial risk for each trade as determined by your initial stop loss before you risk any money on the market. You must plan when you will add to your winning positions and how you plan to exit your winning trades. It is not effective to determine your trading plan while in the trade. Emotional and psychological factors will influence your judgement and affect your decisions
FOLLOW YOUR TRADING PLAN, REMAIN DISCIPLINED AND KEEP LEARNING :)
More elements will follow... Like, share, Comment and follow us to keep updated on our professional trading ideas and education :)
Trading Entry and Exit ChecklistsSELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Trading Entry and Exit checklists
Over the past 18 years of trading, it has been a crucial step in my development to constantly critique myself and my trading strategy. I constantly monitor my performance on a daily, weekly,monthly,quartley and yearly timeframe. Listed below is a small simple example of some of the checklists that i have used in the past prior to entering and exiting a trade.
Entry Rules
1. Is the stop loss placed past the strongest support or resistance line?
2. Am i following my trading rules?
3. The risk/reward is acceptable
4. Have i double checked my entry/stop loss and target position?
5. No news announcements that will affect my trade?
6. Bid/ask spread - Is it in normal range for this pair, this session, this time?
7. AM i risking more then my agreed 1%?
8. Correlation - AM i trading against myself with already open trading trades?
Exit Rules
1. Has the market behaved as predicted? If so stay on track
2. Has the trade reached the support or resistance line?
3. Has the stop been placed too far away? or to close?
4. Am i exiting to early?
5. If unsure of trade exit immediately?
6. If i was impatient and entered trade exit immediately?
7. Is there an upcoming news event that will affect my trade?
8. Is the trade changing directions?
9. Don't take profits to early!! Are you exiting before your target line?
How has yours differed? is it similar?
My 10 Rules before Taking a Trade.1 : Dessiner les Niveaux clés et la Tendance.
(a) Trend and Supports/Resistances Majeures. (12-16x timeframe)
(b) Trend et Support/Resistance on shorter term(6 or 8 time short). Draw the most recurrent Fibonaccis retracements or/and extensions.
(c) Check Action Price on your trading timeframe. Draw short-term fibos.
2: Find a Signal
Only valid on KEY LEVEL.
Ideally respect the trend, with exception of reversal trades.
No signal. STAY FIAT.
Ignore Signals if :
-Low volume.
-Complex retracement.
-Sloppy action price.
3 : Find Confluences.
Is this scenario direction or targets the same if i use different projections? Different Bias? Does market profile validate my fibo support?
Confluences help classify your potential setups by quality and help reduce exposure and overtrading.
4 : Plan the trade.
We have the entries, the targets. Congrats that was the easy part, now you need to find invalidations, partial profit targets and when to rise your stops. For advanced trader, time to plan your time related stoploss, potential re-entries and how you plan to ladder your entries.
Reminder : The closer your stop is, the best is your ratio and so are your earnings, in the long game, ladder entries will boost your profits.
5 : Calculate your REALISTIC Risk/Reward.
No volume on the breakout of your triangle? no reaction on your fibo level? Trump is on a twitter fury and excite the dumb money.Most of the trades are not gonna go like you planned, you're gonna need to get out or reduce your exposure for many reasons.
Being optimistic is good day to day life, when trading it's the opposite. Be Honest and Pessimist.
6 : Define Sizings and Maximal Exposures.
Up to you, i personnally use 1% for my best setups, when i'm not so confident or trading an aggressive setup probably more like 0.3%. I usually ladder my entries with 4-10 positions. Still working on it.
Reminder : A drawdown >25% brings a risk of ruin between 0.5 to 1%. My 10 years experience in risk/reward management 2 cents. This one percent HAPPENS. A human common bias is considering small percentage as irrelevant. They are very relevant, get other this bias.
In my opinion :
<1% risk per trade is MANDATORY if your capital is consequently above your cash flow.
1-3% if you cash flow afford you to rebuild your capital quickly.
>3% if you are masochist.
7 : Mental check-up
Am i calm? Do i want to trade this setup logically or am i pushed by Greed or desire of Revenge? What are my recent results? Am i emotionally involved? What are my recent results?
Winning Tilt : Care of Overtrading, loose Stop losses, passing by mandatory partial profit.
Losing Tilt : Care of Stops too tight, freezing and undertrading.
8 : Accept uncertainty and pending loss.
A drawdown is normal even to very successful traders, for exemple with 50% success rate, you are gonna frequently have a 16 consecutive losing streak. Why this trade would be exceptionnal? Don't take this trade if you are not ready to lose 16 times your stop without blinking, without complaining. If you find yourself doing that, then it's a sign you are too exposed. you DON'T HAVE to risk 1% per trade, especially if you haven't proved you are a winning trader with a long history of profitable trades. Accept this trade is almost irrelevant and part a of a bigger picture. A lifetime of profitable trades that are going to increase your capital. No more no less.
9 Backtest before exposing yourself.
Is this trade part of my bigger plan? Am i in my confort zone? Am i factually profitable with that sort of trades? If yes, Green Light.
If no, don't panic, this work is not worthless. It is very valuable to open ourselves at other technical analysis, other instruments. But no so recommended to burn some bills on it. Time to Paper test this setup, or trade it on a demo account. Make stats on it, is it better than your actual strategy? Yes, you just made yourself richer? No?Smarter then..
Warning! ADA goes down to go square up Hi guys!
Rule number one: Every coins should go square up.
At the moment, Ada follows the rule number one! It has square up at his first support.
Now, will it go up or go down has his next resistance to still square up?
If ADA goes down, it will go down at 60%!
So, WARNING!!!! Be patient and enter at the right time.
Add me on telegram to invest at the right time in ADABTC.
Free: web.telegram.org
PRIVATE ROOM $$: write me privately here or telegram: @JadeDD
I love you xxx
AUDUSD > Long PossibilityAUDUSD > Area of interest > 0.77462 - 0.77542
Oanda 10/13/17 closing price @ 0.78860 w/ increase @ 0.88%
Pullback to S2 / S3 levels is required for set-up to remain valid.
Buy Stop Entry will be placed with further confirmation and if analysis rules/strategies are met.
Potential Targets:
T/P 1 @ 0.78676
T/P 2 @ 0.78894
T/P 3 @ 0.79987
* Personal analysis only. Please use your own rules and strategies prior to entering market.
** Forex trading involves HIGH RISK.
Before entering a trade, carefully consider your objectives, financial resources and level of experience.
LONG AGN | Recover since 05/05/2017 will push above SMA200. www.tradingview.com
Stock oversold.
As always. Target is floating and not set . If the trade is successful, I will close once it hit's SMA200 again.
Basic rules for trading my Swing levelsBASIC RULES FOR TRADING MY SWING TRADE LEVELS :
SL/PT
For every swing trade I use different SL. It is because I search the chart for the best place for the stop loss order.
My PT depends on how far my SL is. Ideally the distance to PT is more or less the same as the distance to my previously determined SL (if I choose SL for example 100 pips, I use PT also around 100 pips). This is because I like Risk Reward Ratio close to 1:1. However, there are more ways to trade my swing levels. Here are some with very good results:
a. Risk Reward Ratio 1:1 : When trading this way I don’t move my SL. There are only two possible outcomes: full SL or full PT.
If you don’t feel that agressive you can move your SL in simillar way like in intraday trading i.e.: move SL below/above the reaction or at BE when you are about 70 – 80 % in open profit.
b. Risk Reward Ratio 1:2: You try to gain 2x more than you risk. When price reaches 50 % of your profit you move your SL below/above the reaction. For example: your SL is 120 pips so you want PT 240 pips. When the price moves 120 pips in your favour (50 %) you move your SL below/above the reaction. This method has very good results but is quite mentally challenging.
c. The same as previous one with the exception that you don’t move your SL below/above reaction but at your break even level.
d. Risk Reward Ratio market dependant: Risk Reward Ratio in this method ranges from 1:1 to 1:2 depending on the market conditions. This requires some skill to determine how far the move could go. I use this method when I want more than 1:1 but don’t want to go for Risk Reward Ratio 1:2 because I think it is too risky. My most frequent risk reward ratio with this method is around 1:1,5
*I use limit orders when trading swing trades.
Macroeconomic events
I trade my swing positions even during significant (marked in red) macroeconomic news. There are so many of them every week that if I wanted to quit my position before every such event the position would just rarely have enough time to reach my PT which is usually over 80 pips far.This approach may look a bit agressive but it is working nicely.
There is one exception: I close all my swing positions and all pending orders before the most significant news. Those are news that are issued by central banks and concern their monetary policy. Here are some of them:
a. Monetary Policy Statement and BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)
b. FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate (USD)
c. Federal Funds Rate and Official Bank Rate (GBP)
d. RBA Monetary Policy Statement and Cash Rate (AUD)
e. RBNZ Rate Statement and Official Cash Rate (NZD)
f. Bank of Canada Rate Statement and Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report (CAD)
g. Minimum Bid Rate and ECB Press Conference (EUR)
h. Some other significant news concerning Brexit, US presidental election, significant news concerning Grexit, etc...
*If you trade your own swing trades with SL tighter than about 50 pips I suggest you adapt the rules and close the trades even before less significant macro events.
Basic rules for trading my intraday levelsTrading rules for intraday levels
1 . Understanding levels
- I trade all my levels when the price reaches them. If I have for example 2 short levels it doesn’t mean that price will go up to reach those two levels nor does it mean that I think the market is going down. What it means is: If the price reaches 1st short level – I go in the short trade. Using rules I wrote below. If the price reaches the 2nd short level I go again in a short position using the same rules.
2. Profit Target/Stop loss
- Profit target: 10 pips.
- Stop loss: 12 pips.
- I use this PT/SL because it suits me personally. It is also possible to go for much bigger profit targets because there is strong reaction to my levels quite often. I recommend trying 1st profit target 10 pips and 2nd profit target for example 20 pips (or use some type of trailing).
3. Securing your position
- If the market went your way at least 7-8 or more pips it is possible to move SL. This way you can prevent turning a winner into a loser. You can move SL either to the place where the market turned or to Break even level. If you move the stop loss or not depends on your own judgement and your risk aversion.
4. When I consider the level already “tested“
- If the market turns 3 or less pips before reaching the intraday level and makes 8 or more pips consider the level already tested and do not trade it anymore. This rule is not so clear-cut. For example if the market turns 2 pips before my level and makes 12 pip reaction – I won’t take the trade anymore. However if the market turns 3 pips sooner and makes not so strong 8 pip reaction I may still take the trade.
5. Macroeconomic news
- Never trade during significant macroeconomic news. Close all intraday trades at least 3 minutes before the announcement no matter if they are in open profit or losing. You can trade again if you see that there is no reaction to the news or wait about 10 minutes after the announcement (or better – after the macro volatility subsides).
6. Limit vs. market orders
- For intraday trades I use market orders only. I use alarms that I put few pips before the levels so I don’t miss any.
- It is possible to use limit orders but you need to be aware of these factors:
o Macroeconomic news
o Situations when market turns a bit sooner making the level not valid anymore.
o Sometimes with market order you can jump in the trade for a slightly better price.
o Securing the position is harder when away from computer.
o
7. How long are levels valid
- My intraday levels are valid until they are tested or until the next levels are published.
- My levels work for EU, US and ASIAN trading session.
- I usuallly don’t trade Asian session because I need to sleep from time to time