The MA 20, The RSI, and Another Bull RunWelcome back to my new long-term analysis. After we called the exact bottom in our last analysis, I am now showing what might happen next with the BTC price.
Today, we are looking at the monthly BTC/USD Chart.
With every BTC halving (dashed vertical lines) the chart is above the orange line, the monthly MA20 . The monthly MA20 decides whether the overall sentiment can be seen as bearish or bullish. A break above the MA20 after a successful crossing of the RSI (purple line in the RSI chart) and the MA7 of the RSI (yellow line in the RSI chart), sets the start of a new bull run as seen in 2019 and 2015. I’ve marked these important points with green circles . For visibility reasons, I left out the example from 2015, but you can easily recreate and see that it applies to that year as well. Whenever the chart is above the MA20, it doesn’t fall below it again until the beginning of the next bear cycle (the Covid-Crash remains an exception, as always).
So, the logical summary to determine a new bull run is the following:
Initial position: Chart has bottomed out (see my last analysis to find out how to detect the BTC bottoms) but is still below the MA20.
Step 1. RSI crosses the MA7 RSI to the upside.
Step 2. Chart crosses the MA20 to the upside.
Et voilà, we found the new beginning of the next bull run.
But where do we close our long positions?
Again, with the help of the RSI crossing the MA7 RSI we can also determine not the exact cycle top, but a precise area where we should close our long positions. When the RSI is in the oversold area (RSI above 80) and also crosses the MA7 RSI, but this time to the downside, we can consider the bull run over. I’ve marked these important points with red circles .
And, what’ next?
I did a little forecast to show what I think the future price movement for BTC can look like. We are facing a small mini-bull-run up to ~45-50k (~Dec 2023). After that, the price gets rejected quite heavily and stays close to the MA20, but always remains above it, until BTC is ready to take off for the next bull run which I think, based on the past timings, is around December 2024. The bull run top can be reached within half a year and could bring the price up to 170k, if not even more.
RUN
Next Bitcoin bull run top - 2025Based on data from previous Bitcoin cycles, it is possible to make an educated guess based on the trend curves and previous cycle time stamps of when the bull run will conclude and how high we can expect to go. Given the fact that crypto marked has matured over the years it is wise to assume that the next top and next bottom will not be as extreme as with the previous cycles. The prediction is that the next top will be around 120k USD on 2025 September and the bottom will be around 28k USD on September 2026.
SunRun to $30+
The TA is simple.
RUN has fallen below it's trend line and I believe this is unjustified in light of the companies fundamentals.
Solar and energy are hot markets as public pressure weighs on fossil fuel companies.
SunRun has solid earnings through a very bearish 2022,
and despite being not far off from First Solar in revenue, RUN hasn't received anywhere close to the same love from the bulls.
This is a high conviction trade for me
Target HKEX:30 +
$TAN: Solar names primed for a move upIf the ETF crosses the $84.03 mark during next week a huge rally can take place, daily charts are already bullish for a few days, I got into a position in $FSLR, $ENPH and $RUN recently, but might add an ETF position in $TAN as well if the weekly signal outlined here triggers.
Note that price crossed over the entire post COVID low till today Volume Profile POC here, which is an interesting technical variable, as it becomes easier to trigger a longer term trend signal as well if it gains traction next.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
FRC to $42The price spring should it break and hold should be fairly large and fast. It currently broke a major trend to the downside and hit an exit. It also has fairly smooth sailing should it break to the upside tomorrow. Exit trade should the blue trend break or should the stock price reject off the red trend. Buy the dips on the trend until it breaks, and then sell on the bottom side of the trend.
Getting close to another support level on $DJI, SCALPING onlyAs stated many times, in & out. Get as much as you can and then WAIT, be PATIENT IF you want to hold longer. It could be a while before we get another good longer term buy opportunity.
As stated before, SCALPING quick moves.
Most of these were not huge moves BUT Put premiums did lessen & provided 10-25% in minutes.
$MSFT went from 249 - 252
$ZS 106 - 108.5
$TSLA 170 -177
$COIN 53-55.2
$RUN 21.9 - 22.95
Picked up some gold miners $BTG $KGC Possible consolidation in the industry.
$DJI bouncing off Support levelEarly this open
RSI looks ok & is oversold. Not buy much but it's been a good amount of selling
Took advantage of this dib & went on buying spree. As we've been saying for some time, IN & OUT, scalps & short term trades.
We've also been SELLING PUTS to help reduce risk by bringing premium in. If the premium subsides a good amount we cover.
Not looking for home runs.
We should have an okay day today but a lot of damage has been done to #stocks.
$MSFT $TSLA $ZS $UDOW $TQQQ $RUN
Beginning to nibble on #GOLD miners $BTG $KGC $FNV doing well today
$DJI dip bought yesterday paying off, $NDX #stocks BOUNCINGYesterday pointed out that we were using cash on that dip
We had sold decent amount couple days before from the longs of last week.
Bought (Sold puts) $MSFT $UDOW $TQQQ $RUN $ZS and others
With rates increasing & #FED staying hawkish how are we not going lower?
Maybe not here but we've stated before MANY times that #markets don't work, especially now, the way most think.
It's psychology & BIG MONEY moves how they see it.
$DJI can very well stay RANGEBOUND for a bit. Stayed this way for 2 weeks in December.
The indices are "easier" to track so find your fav company and use indices to trade around it.
PROSBUSD - Bump and Run Reversal Bottom Pattern?Bump and Run Reversal Bottom Pattern
The bump-and-run reversal bottom is a chart pattern that is a surprisingly good performer in both bull (ranking best for performance) and bear markets (ranking second best). It has a low break even failure rate and high average rise after the breakout. Discovered by Thomas Bulkowski in 1999.
Don-Key Finance 2023 key resistance to breakAnyone in Don-Key Finance will want to see these two trendlines broken in order for a higher target moving into the 2025 bull run. DON needs to break between the $0.04 and $0.06 price range in order to move higher. These are major resistance trend lines that need to be broken through and would be nice if this happens in 2023 if not then we wait till 2024.
200K FOR BITCOIN Baby Shark, doo-doo, doo-doo
Baby Shark, doo-doo, doo-doo
Baby Shark, doo-doo, doo-doo
Baby Shark
Mommy Shark, doo-doo, doo-doo
Mommy Shark, doo-doo, doo-doo
Mommy Shark, doo-doo, doo-doo
Mommy Shark
Daddy Shark, doo-doo, doo-doo
Daddy Shark, doo-doo, doo-doo
Daddy Shark, doo-doo, doo-doo
Daddy Shark
Grandma Shark, doo-doo, doo-doo
Grandma Shark, doo-doo, doo-doo
Grandma Shark, doo-doo, doo-doo
Grandma Shark
Grandpa Shark, doo-doo, doo-doo
Grandpa Shark, doo-doo, doo-doo
Grandpa Shark, doo-doo, doo-doo
Grandpa Shark
Let's go hunt, doo-doo, doo-doo
Let's go hunt, doo-doo, doo-doo
Let's go hunt, doo-doo, doo-doo
Let's go hunt
Run away, doo-doo, doo-doo
Run away, doo-doo, doo-doo
Run away, doo-doo, doo-doo
Run away (ah!)
Safe at last, doo-doo, doo-doo
Safe at last, doo-doo, doo-doo
Safe at last, doo-doo, doo-doo
Safe at last (phew)
It's the end, doo-doo, doo-doo
It's the end, doo-doo, doo-doo
It's the end, doo-doo, doo-doo
It's the end
🟨 Climax Run - $TLRY exampleI have covered this in my education blog, but here is a great example of a Climax Run Stock
Checklist
✅ Price looks almost vertical
❌ Run occurs after at least 18 weeks of the first base. (This run is 5 weeks after first base)
✅ Rapid advancement +180%
✅ Last 8 days before drop was 7 out of 8 days up
✅ Last 2 trading days we saw the largest trading range
❌ Stock is not extended above 200d MA - since no 200 days of trading (early IPO)
❌ No Stock splits
SUNRUN is my next 10x opportunitySunrun is a provider of photovoltaic systems and battery energy storage products, primarily for residential customers as per the official description about the company.
Solar business is a growing area and the company's financials are also improving in line with this growth trend.
The current market cap is around 5-6 billion USD and I think there will be more upside based on the positive market prospects and I am thinking a c.10x to a market cap of minimum 50 billion USD in the next years.
So, I am investing in this one for the long run.
Please comment if you have more insight about the company.
IMPORTANT: This is not a financial advice.
RUN Solar Stock Uptrending from earningsRUN is benefiting from the federal incentives policies. As shown on the chart
Price has risen 48% since the earnings report which was quite favorable.
It is consistently above the Ichimoku cloud and is now in a consolidation.
I see this as a good swing-long setup with the stop loss under the cloud
or instead wait for a pullback. The target would be $37 at the swing high
in mid September or when relative strength hits 80 and shows a bearish
trend.