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Russel2000

Weekly IWM log: Are the candles trying to light our way?Last week we had a great example of a bearish harami candle formation on the weekly chart. A few weeks previously we a weekly bearish engulfment.. The intermediate tend line is broken from last October. Still the long term up trend line is intact but I think there is a good chance we will be at least testing that line, esp if we finish the week with an another bearish engulfment formation. We'll see. Have a good week. Goodguy.
AMEX:IWMShort
by goodguy
4
Death Cross on $RUT $IUX makes the hunt for red octoberOn Sept 20th, we posted on our StockTwits about the formation of an Evening Star pattern. The Russell 2000 index managed to also form a death cross on the same day the Evening Star pattern was formed. This typically spells out danger for the future. As the indicators reach oversold territory, there is a chance buyers may bring it back up to the 200 day before this finally breaks lower. The 1100 support will probably be tested first.
IShort
by Wincreaseteam
Small Caps Lead Into a Recovery, Also Lead into a RecessionThe Russell 2000 has seen strong moves to the downside, as market participants wonder whether or not there is a market top in place (regardless of what CNBC says), Price action is in an important place, resting on an ascending trend line created in mid-June. A break (with a retest and rejection of new resistance/former support is best) would iniate a short position targeting 1,100 over the next couple months. We are likely to see the more riskier equities decline as the Fed "finishes" the QE taper in October, which will likely mix sentiment among traders. The Fed's vague, nonsensical policies will play an important role. If support holds, a retraction could be seen to a secondary descending trend (dotted).
RShort
by CommoditiesTrader
1
Hit First Target; Nears Second Target Per Forecast #Russell2000Friends, This past June 04th, I released three forecast targets, namely: 1 - TG-1 = 115.52 - 04 JUN 14 2 - TG-2 = 117.83 - 04 JUN 14 and 3 - TG-Hi = 119.72 - 04 JUN 2014. (See recent analysis that generated these targets here: ) As of today's close (Monday, 09 JUN 2014), the first target got steam-rolled then used as a springboard (pink arrow) for further advancement in price action. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: Outlook remains intact as price action is now eyeing the second forecast target @ 117.83. As indicated before, the extreme forecast (TG-Hi or TG-Lo) typically refer to lesser probabilities, which if reached, tend to act as significant counter-trend or reversal price points. The escape velocity that propelled price towards the first target should remain in force, indicative of a Wave-3 anatomy in Elliott Waves parlance. If indeed TG-Hi imposes a significant resistance, then the EW pattern trader might potentially see a A-B-C retracement pattern back towards the GREEN dashed bullish trendline, which price used as its launchpad. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting --------------------- Twitter: @4xForecaster ---------------------
AMEX:IWMLong
by 4xForecaster
2
#Russell2000: Forecast Targets In Decreasing Probability OrderFriends, Screening $IWM through my predictive/forecasting model, the following three targets were generated: 1 - TG-1 = 115.52 - 04 JUN 2014 2 - TG-2 = 117.83 - 04 JUN 2014 and 3 - TG-Hi = 119.72 - 04 JUN 2014. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING ORIGIN: These forecast targets are defined using the same predictive/forecasting model that produced all of my prior "Dead-On Hits" (simply Google "Dead-On Target Hits + 4xQuad" or "Dead-On Target Hits + 4xForecaster" for a variety, or simply go to my archives here: bit.ly). CHANNEL POINT DEFINITION: Using TradingView's built-in channel tool, I projected downwards the top values line-up, allowing to define an acceptabe channel containing price around its vacillations. The median line was also able to approximate a line up of candle bodies/shadows as validation points for that median. Now that the channel is drawn and price-based validation has been established, I looked for a a bullish trendline that would justify the recent price action to the upside, as it broke out of the channel. Striking is the fact that price did NOT validate the upper-side of the channel as it would classically do when price validates a trendline that is turned from resistance to support. The fact that this did not occur may simply imply that the green dashed trendline which has been validated about 6 times now, is taking over the supportive role as price moves up and away. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING: As defined above, the model is capable to define step-wise levels of R/S, as well as reversals. Here, price has a higher probability to arrive at TG-1 than it does at TG-Hi, but if it arrived at that highest forecast, it would then have a greater probability of reversing to a significant depth. As the data becomes too scarce to define a probability of depth reversal, I usually advise the trader to first use a Fib-paced approximation of the reversal, such as 38.2, 50. or 61.8 numbers. I also advise the pattern trader to look into the probability of a pattern completion - In this case, A Bearish Bat comes to sight if and when price completes is ascent to TG-Hi, although others might also perceive the possibility of a Bearish Shark, in which case, an ensuing 50% decline at/near TG-Hi would be expected, based on the 5-0 pattern, which is a known acolyte to the Shark pattern. OVERALL: Chart is bullish. Model calls for higher targets. Underlying technical analysis corroborate a probability of price breaking out to the upside - For these reasons, TradingView's directional indicator is switched to "Long". Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting -------------------------- Twitter: @4xForecaster --------------------------
AMEX:IWMLong
by 4xForecaster