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Russell2000

The Boy Who Cried Wolf, 26th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities recovered after a very weak start to end the session flat. It was a case of the Boy Who Cried Wolf. ➤ This counts as the second time in recent days that equities has refused to fall when it ought have. The first cry was on 18th January. Despite the fall that day, equities recovered quickly unable to gain downside momentum. Today was the second cry but there was again no wolf. ➤ The price is still playing chicken with the 200-day moving average. Similar to what occurred during Nov/Dec 2022. Today, there was a lot of effort used to support the recovery. That recovery was only sufficient to break-even. Having spent all that energy, how much is there left in the tank? ➤ I currently hold no position. ➤ Conclusion: Fool me once, fool me twice...
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
When downside volatility becomes an advantage.It’s been a while since we looked at the Russell 2000. For the uninitiated, the Russell 2000 index is a small-cap stock market index that is made up of the smallest 2000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The small-cap nature means a few things, volatility tends to be higher for one. And capturing this downside volatility using the Russell 2000 as compared with the S&P 500 has almost always proven more fruitful. When to take this trade you may ask? The recession bellwether indicator of the 2Y – 10Y yield spread is a simple place to start. With the benefit of hindsight, shorting each of the indexes at the peak ‘inversion’ points proves to be a decently successful strategy. Especially so using the Russell 2000. So the next question to ask is if we are near the peak point of inversion? To answer this, we have to circle back to research from last week, where we discussed the expected rate path for the Federal Reserve (Fed). In short, markets seem to be pricing in a Fed pause, followed by a pivot in the coming year. Looking back at the charts, this shift in stance (or pause) highlighted in the top chart generally marks the turning points for the 2y-10y yield curve inversion, highlighted in the bottom chart. Therefore, with markets expecting a pause as early as the first quarter, we suspect that the turning point for the yield curve inversion is just around the corner. On price action, the 1900 level proves to be of significant resistance, with multiple attempts to break through being rejected. As prices creep towards this resistance level once again, we think this might just provide another attractive opportunity for trading. Zooming out to a daily timeframe, the 0.382 Fibonacci levels marked by the previous high and low, also coincide close to the resistance levels on the shorter timeframe. The proven downside volatility, along with the coming turning point in the yield curve inversion, keeps us bearish on the Russell 2000. Additionally, the price action points to significant resistance overhead, around the 1900 level. Setting our stop at 2035 level (one Average True Range away & close to the next resistance level) and take the profit level at 1690, with each 1-point increment in the Russell 2000 futures contract equal to 50$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by inspirante
10
A Pause, 25th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities ended slightly weaker and traded in a narrow range (for once). There are a lot of games being played at the widely watched 200-day moving average that the S&P500 now sits. ➤ There's an overall contraction in the price swings in recent months due to the sideways moving market (since at least November 2022, stretching to May 2022). This flat-lining of movement is a process of building up energy for the next large directional move whatever that may be. ➤ Many people have observed the formation of the inverse head & shoulders chart pattern (a bullish formation). I'm not a big fan of these formations as they are unreliable but more so the construction of the current pattern looks "non-textbook" if I can put it politely. ➤ I currently hold no position. ➤ Conclusion: Pause in the action but not for long. MrStocky The Professional Loss Maker
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
A Trader's Dilemma, 24th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Another bullish day. Price has reversed the recent weakness and set a new short-term high. Yet, I'm not buying into it right now. Why? Well it's not because of my fundamentally (misplaced?) bearish view. I don't trade on those views. I trade by reading the short-term technicals. I'm completely agnostic when it comes to being long or short. ➤ Today there is no trade because I am faced with a Trader's Dilemma and it's forcing a strong debate within. ➤ The price setup is NOT something I've seen from years past (at least 13yrs in my data). It looks very much like a bullish continuation in the short-term but with bearish overtones too. If I went bullish, I would be using a max. position size. If bearish, half size. So, what's the optimal decision? If I had to force a trade, I would be a buyer. That means using max. risk on an untested trade set-up. Perhaps reducing the trade size is better? That would mean giving up on large profits knowing I'm more likely to be right than wrong. ➤ I've made my decision and have decided to restrain myself in making the trade because this trade set-up is "novel". In cricketing terms, I'm letting the ball "pass through to the keeper" and ignoring my greed for making money. At the end of the day, I'm not "forced" to make the trade. I can choose to not play. There's always another opportunity with a better set-up. ➤ I currently hold no position. ➤ Conclusion: What would be your decision if faced with this situation?
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
1
Missed It By That Much! 20th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Yes, that's exactly what happened with my long position. A large move higher in equities the day after I got out (for a loss). That basically sums up why Trading can sometimes be so frustrating. These days I just take a deep breath and move on. My younger-self would have tore my hair out! ➤ So what does this bullish move mean? Very little in my opinion. It's just another choppy day. We need to see if the S&P500 can break above 4000 or it goes back below 3900. A move in either direction should determine the primary trend for the next week(s). ➤ I currently hold no position. ➤ Conclusion: Standing by to see which direction the market favours.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Back to Normal, 20th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities prices continued to fall. Two price gaps were closed. A lower gap that formed on the 10th Jan and the opening gap from Thursday trade. S&P500 has fallen below the support level at 390. ➤ I think it is clear that price has just formed a lower high. I could argue the short-term downtrend from the Dec 2022 high has been established. This counters the uptrend from the Oct 2022 low but re-aligns with the long-term downtrend since Jan 2022. Did you get that? ➤ Another thing that has re-aligned is that the Tech/Growth/Small cap stocks finally underperformed the DJIA and broader S&P500. This is "normal" behaviour under a risk-off period. Does that mean we are back to 2022 mode? ➤ I closed my long position with a loss as price didn't respond like I wanted. What I want and what the market gives are two separate things. Price may still bounce but I'm not going to risk it at this stage. ➤ Conclusion: Next trade is most likely an opportunity to go short. Standing by.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Bang! 19th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities fell sharpely on Wednesday trade. It was the largest down move of the new year. The market is reminding us that it's not a one way ticket to the moon. VIX is back above 20. I think we can forgive it for having a peek below the pink zone although I did think it would go lower prior to any rebound. ➤ S&P500 was battling the 200-day moving average. Price movement today rejected that level. It's not a conclusive failure as prices tend to whipsaw around such keenly watched technical levels. ➤ Still of interest is that the NASDAQ/TECH is still outperforming the DJIA BLUE CHIPS even on a large down day like today. Normally you would expect "riskier" assets to sell-off more during a risk-off phase. ➤ I opened a moderate long position looking for a quick trade. ➤ Conclusion: Dull one moment, intense the next.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Beginning of the End, 18th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ OK, I'm being over-dramatic with the title of today's note. It actually was a pretty dull day of trading. NASDAQ continues to outperform the Blue Chip indices showing that overall risk-on behaviour is still prevalent. ➤ VIX did bounce higher back into the pink zone. Is this the start of something bearish? It's ambigious. The price action in the S&P500 was not meaningful other than to say there was some profit-taking. With earnings season starting, prices may be jumpy too. ➤ I have closed my long positions and now hold no positions. ➤ Conclusion: Dull action leads to more intense action. Looking forward to it.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
It Works Until It Doesn't, 15th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ This daily note comes a day early because I probably won't have time tomorrow morning. ➤ The VIX has fallen to it's lowest level for many months. It looks to be heading lower. This was a result of continued optimism in something...I'm not sure what exactly. Nevertheless, I'm not interested in knowing. I'm only interested in making money. ➤ Previously, when the VIX fell to these levels, we saw it reverse higher with equity markets falling. It was going like clockwork. However, markets don't remain static, things works until it doesn't. Many people have found this out with the reversal of the Dollar Trade. ➤ The next level for the VIX to potentially reverse higher is at 16. This was the low set at the ALL TIME HIGH for the S&P500 equity index. If you look back further in time, this level was the lows set on many occasions in 2021. ➤ I remain long with a small position. ➤ Conclusion: FIX your eyes on the VIX.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Collapse,13th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The inflation number was as expected but managed to inflate equity prices higher. The small cap Russell 2000 leading the charge. This is a big change when the blue-chips were leading throughout last year. Tech is making up good ground as well. ➤ VIX collapsed below 20. Sending a strong signal to "fear" no more. Perhaps that is correct. Looking at the S&P500 chart, there is little resistance all the way up to 410. It is currently battling the 200 day moving average. For many investors, a clear break above this MA is a strong Bullish signal. ➤ I remain long with a small position. ➤ Conclusion: Watch the VIX, it is in the pink zone where Bears have instilled fear in recent times.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
2% MORE PLEASE,12th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ S&P500 accelerated higher with full confidence. Gapping up and finishing at the high of the day. All we need now is another 2% more! ➤ Why 2%? It's simple. For most Investors, that would take their 2023 returns to around 5-10%. The current interest rate is around 4-5% pa. All you need to do is exit equities and stick all the money on deposit at the bank...an easy double digit return for the year. Don't worry about 2022...that's ancient history. ➤ I remain long with a small position. ➤ Conclusion: Yes, I'm just kidding, that's not how investing works...NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Excitement, 11th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ S&P500 reversed yesterday's price action. The excitement is building and it's not because of the inflation data. ➤ Wyckoffians will know what I'm talking about. The recent price action post break out of the small consolidation phase over the last couple of weeks is a classic looking Bullish/Accumulation pattern. It's almost textbook perfect. If it all goes to plan, prices are poised to explode higher. ➤ I remain long with a small position. ➤ Conclusion: Becareful of perfection.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
1
What have we here? 10th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ S&P500 tried and failed to break the 390 level. It was a thing of beauty if you were a neutral or positioned short. If you were long...🤬🤯🤦‍♀️ ➤ All is not lost. The price did not break back into the consolidation (blue rectangle). The Bulls should still be favoured. It is usual for the price to retrace the break out to test that the break is true. You can refer to yesterday's note about a false break. ➤ I reduced my long position. ➤ Conclusion: The market is anxious. It wants to go up but it's unsure if it should.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
Is now the time to buy stock indices?The Russell, and other stock indices, have been in a retrace move since November 2021. High inflation and fears of a predicted recession are the driving force of the current downside. Is now the time to re-enter equities? Is the retrace move coming to the end? Have the markets found a bottom? Here are my thoughts... Fundamental Analysis Inflation is coming down and seems much more under control. High inflation and rate hikes are no longer a shock to the markets but have become a norm. Obviously, inflation is still high but it does look like it has peaked. The markets are expecting further minor rate hikes to continue to bring inflation down to a more healthy rate. Last weeks US non-manufacturing PMI figure suggests that the US could be heading into the expected recession - what has been predicted by many over the last 6 months or so could be starting to crystallise. A recession is not a good thing, but recession could be good for the equity markets, as economies will be acting as most analysts and traders have been expecting, which brings some sense and stability to the markets. Technical Analysis The retrace move recently found support around a key weekly horizontal level and around the 50.0% Fibonacci retrace level. On lower time-frames, price has closed above a consolidation area. All is marked on the chart above. Summary So, going back to my original question... 'Is now the time to buy global stock indices', my answer is 'I don't know', as nothing is certain within the financial trading, no trades or analysis is guaranteed. Saying this though, I went long last Friday based on the analysis in this post. If price does swing lower, my next areas of interest are around 1650 and around the weekly 61.8& Fib level. Things to beware of are; inflation starting to climb again, a deeper recession than expected. Either of these things (hopefully not both of them!) could bring stock markets lower.
FX:US2000Long
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
The Real Test...9th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ S&P500 marched higher to finish above the consolidation phase that I have mentioned in previous posts. The real test is if the price can hold above the breakout. ➤ In order to do so, the Bulls will need to overcome the first hurdle at the 390 level on the SPY. This is not the strongest of hurdles. Price has sliced through this level (up and down) on numerous occasions. It is therefore not the most reliable. ➤ A failure to hold would see prices reverse back into the consolidation. This would not be a good sign and I think the Bears would be encouraged to take advantage to push prices down to 371 at the minimum. ➤ I currently hold a moderately sized long position. ➤ Conclusion: The bulk of the action may centre around the US inflation data on Jan 12th along with the start of earnings season.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
Boxed In...6th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ S&P500 gapped lower and did not recover. It finished the day sitting on the support level. Price is clearly boxed in a consolidation phase as illustrated. ➤ Exponents of Elliott Wave Theory could interpret the current price action in two ways. In the Bullish case, price is developing an ABC corrective pattern after the 5 wave impulsive move off the October 2022 bottom. The Bearish interpretation is that price is in a wave 2 retracement as part of a 5 wave impulsive move lower from the December high. In either case, it points to a choppy period with a resolution soon. ➤ I currently hold a moderately sized long position. ➤ Conclusion: Who's right and who's wrong?
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
First Opportunity...5th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Once more optimism helped equities start higher in morning trade. Not surprisingly, that enthusiasm waned again as price filled the opening gap by falling back to the support level. The difference today was that the price recovered to close the day above the opening. ➤ Given the strength, I have taken this opportunity to open my first trades of the year. I'm looking for continued strength. The first hurdle is to break above the consolidation high at 387.3 on the $SPY, 390 is then the second hurdle. I don't expect to hold this buy position for long especially if price stays within the consolidation or fails to the downside. ➤ I currently hold a moderately sized long position. ➤ Conclusion: We're off to the races.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro