Russell2000
Jamie Gun2Head Idea - Buying US2000Trade Idea: Buying US2000
Reasoning: Some RSI divergence being seen, looking for some window dressing by hedge funds and a move higher today!
Entry Level: 1694
Take Profit Level: 1750
Stop Loss: 1667
Risk/Reward: 2.07:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Russell 2000 / M2 Money Supply: Discounted to 500 MVA & @support"Russell 2000 / M2 Money Supply" ratio
1) It moves in a horizental trend in the long-term.
2) %20 discounted compared to 500 days MVA.
3) Nearly touched a major long-term horizental support.
Of course it can also move more downwards if the crisis/war deepens but we can say that the probability of upwards move is more likely.
First target: 0.095-0.100
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Buying US2000Trade Idea: Buying US2000
Reasoning: Oversold RSI on the daily, looks to be putting in a short term bottom
Entry Level: 1685.0
Take Profit Level: 1759.0
Stop Loss: 1661.0
Risk/Reward: 3.08:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Russel 2000 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September Russel 2000 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September
Currently our volatility for Russel is at 4.3%, increasing from 3.76% last week, located on 70th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 16.7% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 1746
BOT 1620
At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 28% chance that the previous high from last week of 1830 is going to be touched
- There is a 70% chance that the previous low from last week 1660 is going to be touched
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 2.9% for bull candles and 2.95% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep
- Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
BULL TRAP BEAR MARKET BULL RUN WATCHING UVXYAMEX:UVXY
UVXY is known to watch greed and fear while rising on fear.
Federal minutes release is tomorrow; in the meanwhile this late afternoon
the indices and the ETFs that track them printed bearish engulfing candles
taking away as much as 1% in moments- this may be a fear escalation process.
To capitalize on this I took call options on UVXY with an expiration on this Friday.
UVXY is 3 the YTD low. SMAs 50, 100 and 200 are above. as target candidates.
Horizontal resistances are drawn. Time will tell. Looks good right now.
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Buying US2000Trade Idea: Buying US2000
Reasoning: RSI bullish divergence, looking for a bounce on indices today!
Entry Level: 1789
Take Profit Level: 1829
Stop Loss: 1776
Risk/Reward: 3.08:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Prefer to fade into the rally on US2000USDUS2000USD0 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1860 (stop at 1895)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A higher correction is expected. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 1775 and 1760
Resistance: 1815 / 1830 / 1840
Support: 1800 / 1790 / 1775
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Selling rallies on US2000USDUS2000USD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1880 (stop at 1910)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. We are trading at oversold extremes. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 1790 and 1730
Resistance: 1830 / 1935 / 2025
Support: 1785 / 1730 / 1640
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
RUT- Russell 2000 Mid Caps GOOD DAYS AHEADThe RUT ETF crashed with the COVID market phenomenon but then recovered better and faster than the SPY in 116 % of price appreciation
in less than the one year that followed. Since then RUT retraced about 1/2 of that uptrend.
Presently on the weekly chart, the price is relatively stable. The RSI bottomed out in the oversold territory and is now in mid-range
with RSI above its Ichimoku cloud. All of this is positive or at least not the overly negative of doom and gloom.
I believe that it will soon be time to begin a dollar cost averaging into some long-term call options on RUT
as things are not as bad as the media, banks and large institutional players want to portray to retail traders and
investors.
Nasdaq’s past is a timely reminder.The Nasdaq 100 Index has had an incredible run, rewarding long-term investors with massive outperformance over the past 20 years. But as traders we want to position ourselves to benefit from short-term events as well.
Look closer at the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, you’ll find a similar setup to today, just 22 years prior, where the Nasdaq was trading incredibly rich compared to the S&P 500 and the Russell.
We can also look at the ratio of the Nasdaq vs its peers to understand on a relative basis, how expensive or cheap the index is trading. Currently, both ratios still trade close to the 2000s high, a critical level where the ratio topped out and then crashed in a dramatic fashion thereafter. From a timing perspective, the Nasdaq 100/S&P 500 ratio took roughly 30 months to bottom out while the Nasdaq 100/Russell 2000 ratio took 27 months. With the current decline only 9 months young, we expect more pain for Nasdaq for quite a while longer.
On a shorter timeframe, we see the 2 ratios near or at critical levels. The Nasdaq 100/S&P 500 ratio seems to have completed a double top, broken the neckline, and then come back to retest the neckline before being clearly rejected. This allows us to be comfortably bearish on the ratio.
As for the Nasdaq 100/Russell 2000, the ratio is currently trading close to a major support level, the break of which will likely send it tumbling down.
To set up this trade, we could:
- Short 1 Nasdaq 100 Futures contract (NQZ2 Index)
- Long 1 S&P 500 Futures (ESZ2 Index)
However, this trade has certain risks as the dollar value effect of a 1-point move in the Nasdaq 100 ($20) is different from a 1-point move in the S&P500 ($50).
Therefore, another way to set up this spread trade would be to:
- Short 5 Nasdaq 100 Futures contract (NQZ2 Index)
- Long 2 S&P 500 Futures (ESZ2 Index)
Where the dollar value of the position is equal whether the Nasdaq or S&P moves by 1 point. Trading this spread would be eligible for a margin offset of up to 70%, meaning that the capital required to set up this trade is low.
We think the Nasdaq’s past behavior might be back to haunt investors, hence we prefer to be on the short side, whether using the outright short or a spread to express our view.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Selling US2000Trade Idea: Selling US2000
Reasoning: Looking for selloff to extend - targeting 61.8% fib level
Entry Level: 1989.0
Take Profit Level: 13512.0
Stop Loss: 1953.0
Risk/Reward: 2.77:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.