🤨 When in Doubt...17th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ ...sit out. In my humble opinion, the current short-term price action in equities are highly ambiguous. This often happens at key inflexion points when prices temporarily move sideways. Sometimes this is the market digesting recent moves e.g. the upward surge or the market is in search of direction awaiting some news or catalyst.
➤ With ambiguity comes the danger of forcing a trade or reading too much into a particular price action. For example, the Russell 2000 small cap stocks performed terribly today, breaking below support. Technically, I could make a case for shorting the Russell yet if I look at other equity indices, they ended above or very near support levels on this bearish day. The VIX (fear index) actually contracted showing lack of bearishness. Based on my experience, it is much better to wait another day for things to develop than eagerly risk capital in search of gains.
➤ I currently have zero exposure in the market. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Thursday is Action Day?
Russell2000
That Was Not Good, 16th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ I didn't change the title from yesterday's post for an obvious reason. The news about the "errant" missile landing in Poland. The first thing that comes to mind is "uncertainty". Uncertainty is not good for markets albeit this one may be short-lived.
➤ That being said, from a technical view point, markets bounced off the daily low strongly closing the gap created by the higher open. The uptrend is intact for now. Speaking of gaps, there is a large gap unclosed since 13th Sept just above current levels in the S&P500 (SPY). There is also the massive gap created on 10th Nov when prices leapt higher post inflation data. The market likes to close those price gaps.
➤ The last of my long positions was closed. Leaving us in a familiar territory of having no positions. That's not a bad thing given the uncertainty.
The key to my Strategy is to only get involved when there is a clear price structure with a good probability of success. I don't think I'll be out of the action for long though. Price action on Wednesday will most likely determine new positioning.
➤ I currently have zero exposure in the market. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Wednesday is Action Day.
Russel friend of BTCThe Russell Index has a strong correlation with BTC. Many people look at SPX and Nasdaq first. But we think we need to take a look at this chart. If you overlay a chart of bitcoin on a chart of this index, you will understand everything. But this analysis is not about that. At the moment, Bitcoin, along with Russell, is at an important stage in moving forward. We see a global downward trend line, which we are now inside. The price on 1d is formed by equal highs with the liquidity pool. RSI shows weakness on 1d. At the time of writing, the price eliminates liquidity and fills in market inefficiencies. This could serve as a potential turning point. At the same time, Bitcoin is also showing signs of weakness. We believe that at the moment there is a high probability of a reversal formation. Watch the price.
will small caps save the market or fail at resistancerussel is making its high, and the question is will it print this and reverse following the rest of the market lower, or is this resistance breaking on a second touch to melt the market up with more squeeze. right now the hourly is most important. as long as were below nadaraya watson estimate it feels like price belongs toward bottom of envelope and lower horizontal, and if we bounce we should go back toward estimate or upper horizontal.
Apple Inc. Price target: $70.00/share
As part of my inverse big tech ETF...
Apple is another SHORT position going into this economic slowdown. Projecting $AAPL to decline about -60% to the 200-D MA, the .618 fib, and the pre-pandemic level.
1) Cause: Operating margin are coming down. Effect: Apple cutting costs (Bearish setup)
2) Market cap still holding on which is why $AAPL hasn't crashed yet.
3) Downward EPS revisions
Short the RussellThe market is perpetuating low risk taking which makes the Russell a better broad index short than the S&P500. There's more room to the downside for this one to play out. We suggest a smaller position to which one can add incrementally after it makes it's move. The stop loss can also be moved closer to Breakeven to improve on the Ratio.
Jamie Gun2Head Idea - Buying US2000Trade Idea: Buying US2000
Reasoning: Some RSI divergence being seen, looking for some window dressing by hedge funds and a move higher today!
Entry Level: 1694
Take Profit Level: 1750
Stop Loss: 1667
Risk/Reward: 2.07:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Russell 2000 / M2 Money Supply: Discounted to 500 MVA & @support"Russell 2000 / M2 Money Supply" ratio
1) It moves in a horizental trend in the long-term.
2) %20 discounted compared to 500 days MVA.
3) Nearly touched a major long-term horizental support.
Of course it can also move more downwards if the crisis/war deepens but we can say that the probability of upwards move is more likely.
First target: 0.095-0.100
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Buying US2000Trade Idea: Buying US2000
Reasoning: Oversold RSI on the daily, looks to be putting in a short term bottom
Entry Level: 1685.0
Take Profit Level: 1759.0
Stop Loss: 1661.0
Risk/Reward: 3.08:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Russel 2000 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September Russel 2000 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September
Currently our volatility for Russel is at 4.3%, increasing from 3.76% last week, located on 70th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 16.7% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 1746
BOT 1620
At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 28% chance that the previous high from last week of 1830 is going to be touched
- There is a 70% chance that the previous low from last week 1660 is going to be touched
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 2.9% for bull candles and 2.95% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep
- Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
BULL TRAP BEAR MARKET BULL RUN WATCHING UVXYAMEX:UVXY
UVXY is known to watch greed and fear while rising on fear.
Federal minutes release is tomorrow; in the meanwhile this late afternoon
the indices and the ETFs that track them printed bearish engulfing candles
taking away as much as 1% in moments- this may be a fear escalation process.
To capitalize on this I took call options on UVXY with an expiration on this Friday.
UVXY is 3 the YTD low. SMAs 50, 100 and 200 are above. as target candidates.
Horizontal resistances are drawn. Time will tell. Looks good right now.
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Buying US2000Trade Idea: Buying US2000
Reasoning: RSI bullish divergence, looking for a bounce on indices today!
Entry Level: 1789
Take Profit Level: 1829
Stop Loss: 1776
Risk/Reward: 3.08:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.