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Russell2000

Russell 2000: FUNDAMENTAL + NEWS INFOs | LONG SETUPRUSSELL 2000 FORECAST: The Russell 2000 tumbles as U.S. inflation rises at the fastest pace since 1982 Lack of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine also weighs on sentiment, accelerating the sell-off on Wall Street The Russell 2000 near-term outlook remains bearish from a technical perspective The Russell 2000 fell Thursday in midday trading, sinking about 1.3% to 1,990, weighed down by risk-averse mood due to rising geopolitical tensions and rampant inflation in the United States. Investor sentiment improved briefly yesterday on expectations that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine could begin to de-escalate soon, but the winds shifted again today after high-level talks between the two countries' foreign ministers failed to produce any progress towards a ceasefire. To make matters worse, U.S. CPI continued to accelerate and reached 7.9% year-on-year in February, its highest level since 1982, driven by rising fuel, food and housing costs.The commodity market price shock of the past few days did not influence data for this period, so we can effectively say that inflation has not yet peaked, and that much higher readings are likely in the coming months. Mounting price pressures will lead the Fed to raise interest rates multiple times in 2022, starting at next week's meeting, although the hiking cycle may be less aggressive than anticipated earlier in the year amid extraordinary uncertainty stemming from the military conflict in Eastern Europe. In any case, the direction of travel is toward less accommodation and tighter financial conditions over the forecast horizon. The transition to a more restrictive monetary policy environment, coupled with weakening activity, runaway inflation, and the war in Ukraine, will ensure that volatility remains elevated for the foreseeable future, complicating the equity market recovery, particularly for cyclically oriented companies that are highly dependent on healthy GDP growth. This leaves the economically sensitive Russell 2000 in a precarious situation and vulnerable to near-term weakness.
OANDA:US2000USDLong
by INDEX_INSIDERS
RUSSEL 2000: DOWNTREND | PRICE ACTION IN BEARISH CHANNEL| SHORT Bigger isn't always better. Case in point: Lots of trading desks are locked in on the dramatic underperformance of the small-cap Russell 2000 Index amid the bounce-back in broader stocks from the late January lows. The Russell 2000 — which is often viewed a proxy for the strength (or lack thereof) of the domestic economy — is down 10.5% this year compared to a 6% drop for the S&P 500 and 3.6% decline for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Russell 2000 has lagged the S&P 500 by 25 percentage points in the past 12 months, its worst 12-month relative return since 1999, notes Goldman Sachs' David Kostin. "Decelerating GDP growth has been one headwind to the cyclical small-cap index. During the last 20 years, small-caps have lagged on average in periods when the yield curve was flattening, economic growth was strong but decelerating, or financial conditions were tightening," Kostin says. Traders are now trying to determine whether the weakness in the Russell 2000 suggests another pullback in the markets is in the offing. After all, larger cap stocks are exposed to the same things (tightening financial conditions, higher interest rates, inflation, etc.) as smaller companies. "The small cap Russell 2000 has been a “canary in the coal mine” for stocks for much of the past year — first warning softly as small cap momentum peaked along with other areas of euphoric sentiment in 1Q21 even as large caps continued to rise, and then more urgently as its breakdown from a year long range led the broader market lower. As stocks bounce from their January slide, though, small caps have shown signs of sputtering below their prior support. Floors can often become resistant when broken, and with the Russell 2000’s recent track record as a leading indicator for broader market weakness, we will be watching the reaction to this level closely. Failure would suggest further correction in stocks lies ahead, while a break above could indicate stabilization," explains Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel. Of course, the Russell 2000 sucking wind could mean absolutely nothing to the S&P 500's next big move. No analysis is fool proof. Just file this under your "Things to Watch List," especially as the bulls begin to resurface and blow their normal smoke in your face. Now go forth and conquer in what will be another mentally draining week of corporate earnings. Happy trading!
UShort
by FOREXN1
3
IWM - Looks like small caps might be in for a bit more hurtThe daily chart from the Covid crash to the peak of the Covid recovery paints a picture of the Russell 2000 that is eerily similar to a textbook sketch of Wyckoff's distribution theory. For the bulk of 2021 IWM respected a very clear support line that has been crashed through in 2022. Recent price action shows that old support being tested as a new resistance and buyers attempting to push prices through that level were flatly rejected. Furthermore, volume began spiking on drops in price below the 200 day moving average and any movement above it recently was met with anemic volume. This is not the excitement that we've been accustomed to in the small caps of 2020. The game has changed. With 1/3 of the Russell (at least) being non-revenue producing speculative companies that were exponentially over-valued during the 2020 bull run, it's hard to imagine that the grounding of the Russell isn't real and that it isn't coming. In today's market, giants like TSLA, AAPL, and MSFT are being dragged down to fundamental value. The small caps aren't immune, unfortunately. What's even worse is that a correction to AAPL's charts isn't as ghastly as some small caps that are trading at tens or hundreds of millions above their quarterly earnings. The Russell is an important index to watch if one is interested in small cap boomers. It serves as not only a tradable ETF but as a thermometer for the sentiment toward speculation. Right now, it appears that bullish sentiment and risk taking is waning and bearish sentiment is growing. This could lead to a gut wrenching performance for small caps going forward into 2022 and larger drops in former penny stocks that retail investors drove to epic heights in 2020 and early 2021. Many of these companies are still heavily overvalued after 50%+ drops in share prices. I'd expect volatility in the coming months as tax returns are pumped into these old favorites with the rallying cries of "buy the dip" and "moon next PR" on the breath of most novice investors and traders, especially those who are holding bags likely exponentially higher than current share prices. Once that surge of small money ends I would think that an abysmal summer is approaching for many of these strongholds. Most of the companies have made lofty promises and many of them have targeted this summer for validation of their business models and strategies. But in the face of generationally high inflation, wars, rate hikes, and supply chain disruptions along with a pandemic that is cyclically impacting humanity, will it matter? If Mr. Russell is any indication of what is to come, that answer is likely no. Spiking prices will likely be met with hard sell-offs and shorts that start to feel the squeeze will get a layer of protection from the trapped bulls just looking to get their money back out of the markets. It's not the best of news, but it shouldn't be considering that we aren't in the best of economic situations currently. Of course this is the markets and the markets have a mind of their own. It's wise not to get too caught up in bias and predictions to the point where you are unable to react appropriately and according to your plans. Good luck out there and God bless!!
AMEX:IWM
by TradingTacticsPro
Russell2000 Held at 2100 Support, Counter Trend Move to 2280Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 15-Min Chart. Support appears to have held at around the 2100 for the Russell 2000 Index (US2000). This is corroborated by the US2000 crossing above its medium term (195-MA) moving average. Also the Supertrend broke above its 2146 resistance above the last trading session. When observing the technical indicators there is a unique pattern on the Awesome Oscillator (AO) and the RSI. There is positive price divergence with the indicators. The AO is above 0 and the RSI is greater than 50. It is expected that US2000 rallies towards the 2280 price level. Failure of this move will be seen if US2000 declines below 2100. The Point and Figure chart as well is showing a bullish reversal. Support is seen around 2110 and the Index rallied above its short (30-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) moving averages. There are also positive crossovers with the short and medium as well as short and long term MAs. The AO is above 0 with the RSI trading above 50. The longer term view remains corrective for the US2000. Resistance is observed around 2185. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 2100 and a target of 2280. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.70. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time of publishing I have exposure to US2000.
OANDA:US2000USDLong
by Ceddy86
Russell 2000 - Bloomberg Special small-cap stock market index (ONE TO WATCH) TVC:RUT RUSSELL:RUT AMEX:IWM CME_MINI:RTY1! AMEX:IWO OANDA:US2000USD AAN AAOI AAON AAT AAWW AAXN ABCB ABEO ABG ABM ABTX AC ACA ACAD ACBI ACCO ACER ACHN ACIA ACIW ACLS ACNB ACOR ACRE ACRS ACRX ACTG ADC ADES ADMA ADMS ADNT ADRO ADSW ADTN ADUS ADVM AEGN AEIS AEL AEO AERI AFI AFIN AFMD AGE AGEN AGLE AGM AGS AGX AGYS AHH AHT AI AIMC AIMT AIN AIR AIRG AIT AJRD AJX AKBA AKCA AKR AKRO AKRX AKS AKTS ALBO ALCO ALDR ALDX ALE ALEC ALEX ALG ALGT ALLK ALLO ALOT ALRM ALTM ALTR ALX AMAG AMAL AMBA AMBC AMC AMED AMEH AMK AMKR AMN AMNB AMOT AMPH AMRC AMRS AMRX AMSC AMSF AMSWA AMTB AMWD ANAB ANDE ANF ANGO ANH ANIK ANIP AOBC AOSL APAM APEI APLS APOG APPF APPN APPS APTS APYX AQUA ARA ARAY ARCB ARCH ARDX ARES ARGO ARI ARL ARLO ARNA AROC AROW ARQL ARR ARTNA ARVN ARWR ASC ASGN ASIX ASMB ASNA ASPS ASRT ASTE AT ATEC ATEN ATEX ATGE ATHX ATI ATKR ATLO ATNI ATNX ATRA ATRC ATRI ATRO ATRS ATSG AUB AVA AVAV AVCO AVD AVDR AVID AVNS AVRO AVX AVXL AVYA AWR AX AXAS AXDX AXE AXGN AXL AXLA AXNX AXSM AXTI AYR AZZ B BANC BAND BANF BANR BATRA BATRK BBBY BBCP BBIO BBSI BBX BCBP BCC BCEI BCEL BCML BCO BCOR BCOV BCPC BCRX BDC BDGE BDSI BE BEAT BECN BELFB BFC BFIN BFS BFST BGG BGS BGSF BH BHB BHE BHLB BHR BHVN BIG BIOS BJ BJRI BKD BKE BKH BL BLBD BLD BLDR BLFS BLKB BLMN BLX BMCH BMI BMRC BMTC BNED BNFT BOCH BOLD BOMN BOOM BOOT BOX BPFH BPMC BPRN BRC BREW BRG BRID BRKL BRKS BRT BRY BSET BSGM BSIG BSRR BSTC BSVN BTAI BTU BUSE BV BWB BWFG BXC BXG BXMT BXS BY BYD BYSI BZH CAC CADE CAI CAKE CAL CALA CALM CALX CAMP CAR CARA CARB CARE CARG CARO CARS CASA CASH CASI CASS CATC CATM CATO CATS CATY CBAN CBAY CBB CBL CBLK CBM CBMG CBNK CBPX CBRL CBTX CBU CBZ CCB CCBG CCF CCMP CCNE CCO CCOI CCRN CCS CCXI CDE CDLX CDMO CDNA CDR CDXC CDXS CDZI CECE CECO CEIX CELC CELH CENT CENTA CENX CERC CERS CETV CEVA CFB CFFI CFFN CFMS CHAP CHCO CHCT CHDN CHEF CHGG CHMA CHMG CHMI CHRA CHRS CHS CHUY CIA CIO CIR CISN CIVB CIX CJ CKH CKPT CLAR CLBK CLCT CLDR CLDT CLF CLFD CLI CLNC CLNE CLPR CLVS CLW CLXT CMBM CMC CMCO CMCT CMLS CMO CMP CMPR CMRE CMRX CMTL CNBKA CNCE CNDT CNMD CNNE CNO CNOB CNR CNS CNSL CNST CNTY CNX CNXN CODA COHU COKE COLB COLL CONN COOP CORE CORR CORT COWN CPE CPF CPK CPLG CPRX CPS CPSI CRAI CRBP CRC CRCM CRD.A CRK CRMD CRMT CRNX CROX CRS CRTX CRUS CRVL CRY CRZO CSFL CSGS CSII CSLT CSOD CSTE CSTL CSTR CSV CSWI CTB CTBI CTMX CTO CTRA CTRC CTRE CTRN CTS CTSO CTT CTWS CUB CUBI CUE CULP CURO CUTR CVA CVBF CVCO CVCY CVGI CVGW CVI CVIA CVLT CVLY CVM CVRS CVTI CWCO CWEN CWEN.A CWH CWK CWST CWT CXW CYCN CYH CYRX CYTK CZNC Aaron’s, Inc. Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. AAON, Inc. American Assets Trust, Inc. Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. Axon Enterprise, Inc. Ameris Bancorp Abeona Therapeutics, Inc. Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. ABM Industries, Inc. Allegiance Bancshares, Inc. (Texas) Associated Capital Group, Inc. Arcosa, Inc. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Atlantic Capital Bancshares, Inc. ACCO Brands Corp. Acer Therapeutics, Inc. Achillion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Acacia Communications, Inc. ACI Worldwide, Inc. Axcelis Technologies, Inc. ACNB Corp. Acorda Therapeutics, Inc. Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp. Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc. AcelRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Acacia Research Corp. Agree Realty Corp. Advanced Emissions Solutions, Inc. ADMA Biologics, Inc. Adamas Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Adient plc Aduro BioTech, Inc. Advanced Disposal Services, Inc. ADTRAN, Inc. Addus HomeCare Corp. Adverum Biotechnologies, Inc. Aegion Corp. Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. American Equity Investment Life Holding Co. 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Camden National Corp. (Maine) Cadence Bancorporation CAI International, Inc. Cheesecake Factory, Inc. Caleres, Inc. Calithera Biosciences, Inc. Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. Calix, Inc. CalAmp Corp. Avis Budget Group, Inc. CARA Therapeutics, Inc. Carbonite, Inc. Carter Bank & Trust Cargurus, Inc. Carolina Financial Corp. Cars.com, Inc. Casa Systems, Inc. Meta Financial Group, Inc. CASI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Cass Information Systems, Inc. Cambridge Bancorp Cardtronics plc The Cato Corp. Catasys, Inc. Cathay General Bancorp Colony Bankcorp, Inc. CymaBay Therapeutics, Inc. Cincinnati Bell, Inc. CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. Carbon Black, Inc. (Massachusetts) Cambrex Corporation Cellular Biomedicine Group, Inc. Capital Bancorp, Inc. (Maryland) Continental Building Products, Inc. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBTX, Inc. (Texas) Community Bank System, Inc. CBIZ, Inc. Coastal Financial Corp. (Washington) Capital City Bank Group, Inc. Chase Corp. Cabot Microelectronics Corp. CNB Financial Corp. (Pennsylvania) Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings, Inc. Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. Cross Country Healthcare, Inc. Century Communities, Inc. ChemoCentryx, Inc. Coeur Mining, Inc. Cardlytics, Inc. Avid Bioservices, Inc. CareDx, Inc. Cedar Realty Trust, Inc. Chromadex Corp. Codexis, Inc. Cadiz, Inc. CECO Environmental Corp. Career Education Corp. CONSOL Energy, Inc. Celcuity, Inc. Celsius Holdings, Inc. Central Garden & Pet Co. Central Garden & Pet Co. Century Aluminum Co. Cerecor, Inc. Cerus Corp. Central European Media Enterprises Ltd. CEVA, Inc. CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. C&F Financial Corp. Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. ConforMIS, Inc. Chaparral Energy, Inc. City Holding Co. Community Healthcare Trust, Inc. Churchill Downs, Inc. The Chefs’ Warehouse, Inc. Chegg, Inc. Chiasma, Inc. Chemung Financial Corp. Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp. Charah Solutions, Inc. Coherus BioSciences, Inc. Chico’s FAS, Inc. Chuy’s Holdings, Inc. Citizens, Inc. (Austin, Texas) City Office REIT, Inc. CIRCOR International, Inc. Cision Ltd. Civista Bancshares, Inc. CompX International, Inc. C&J Energy Services, Inc. SEACOR Holdings, Inc. Checkpoint Therapeutics, Inc. Clarus Corp. Columbia Financial, Inc. Collectors Universe, Inc. Cloudera, Inc. Chatham Lodging Trust Cleveland-Cliffs, Inc. Clearfield, Inc. Mack-Cali Realty Corp. Colony Credit Real Estate, Inc. Clean Energy Fuels Corp. Clipper Realty, Inc. Clovis Oncology, Inc. Clearwater Paper Corp. Calyxt, Inc. Cambium Networks Corp. Commercial Metals Co. Columbus McKinnon Corp. CIM Commercial Trust Corp. Cumulus Media, Inc. Capstead Mortgage Corp. Compass Minerals International, Inc. Cimpress Plc Costamare Inc. Chimerix, Inc. Comtech Telecommunications Corp. Century Bancorp, Inc. (Massachusetts) Concert Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Conduent, Inc. CONMED Corp. Cannae Holdings, Inc. CNO Financial Group, Inc. ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. Cornerstone Building Brands, Inc. Cohen & Steers, Inc. (New York) Consolidated Communications Holdings, Inc. Constellation Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Century Casinos, Inc. CNX Resources Corp. PC Connection, Inc. Coda Octopus Group, Inc. Cohu, Inc. Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. Columbia Banking System, Inc. Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. Conn’s, Inc. Mr. Cooper Group, Inc. Core-Mark Holding Co., Inc. CorEnergy Infrastructure Trust, Inc. Corcept Therapeutics, Inc. Cowen, Inc. Callon Petroleum Co. Central Pacific Financial Corp. Chesapeake Utilities Corp. CorePoint Lodging, Inc. Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Cooper-Standard Holdings, Inc. Computer Programs & Systems, Inc. CRA International, Inc. Corbus Pharmaceuticals Holdings, Inc. California Resources Corp. Care.com, Inc. Crawford & Co. Comstock Resources, Inc. CorMedix, Inc. America’s Car-Mart, Inc. Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Crocs, Inc. Carpenter Technology Corp. Cortexyme, Inc. Cirrus Logic, Inc. CorVel Corp. CryoLife, Inc. Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. CenterState Bank Corp. CSG Systems International, Inc. Cardiovascular Systems, Inc. Castlight Health, Inc. Cornerstone OnDemand, Inc. Caesarstone Ltd. Castle Biosciences, Inc. CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. Carriage Services, Inc. CSW Industrials, Inc. Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (Kentucky) CytomX Therapeutics, Inc. Consolidated-Tomoka Land Co. Contura Energy, Inc. Centric Brands, Inc. CareTrust REIT, Inc. Citi Trends, Inc. CTS Corp. CytoSorbents Corp. CatchMark Timber Trust, Inc. Connecticut Water Service, Inc. Cubic Corp. Customers Bancorp, Inc. Cue Biopharma, Inc. Culp, Inc. CURO Group Holdings Corp. Cutera, Inc. Covanta Holding Corp. CVB Financial Corp. Cavco Industries, Inc. Central Valley Community Bancorp Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. Calavo Growers, Inc. CVR Energy, Inc. Covia Holdings Corp. Commvault Systems, Inc. Codorus Valley Bancorp, Inc. CEL-SCI Corp. Corindus Vascular Robotics, Inc. Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. Clearway Energy, Inc. Clearway Energy, Inc. Camping World Holdings, Inc. Cushman & Wakefield Plc Casella Waste Systems, Inc. California Water Service Group CoreCivic, Inc. Cyclerion Therapeutics, Inc. Community Health Systems, Inc. CryoPort, Inc. Cytokinetics, Inc. Citizens & Northern Corp. Russell 2000 Stocks List (D-K) DAKT DAN DAR DBD DBI DCO DCOM DCPH DDD DDS DEA DECK DENN DERM DF DFIN DGICA DGII DHIL DHT DHX DIN DIOD DJCO DK DLA DLTH DLX DMRC DNBF DNLI DNOW DNR DO DOC DOMO DOOR DORM DOVA DPLO DRH DRNA DRQ DS DSKE DSPG DSSI DTIL DVAX DX DXPE DY DZSI EAT EB EBF EBIX EBS EBSB EBTC ECHO ECOL ECOM ECOR ECPG EDIT EE EEX EFC EFSC EGAN EGBN EGHT EGLE EGOV EGP EGRX EHTH EIDX EIG EIGI EIGR ELF ELOX ELVT ELY EME EML ENDP ENFC ENOB ENPH ENS ENSG ENTA ENV ENVA ENZ EOLS EPAY EPC EPM EPRT EPZM EQBK ERA ERI ERII EROS ESCA ESE ESGR ESNT ESPR ESQ ESSA ESTE ESXB ETH ETM EVBG EVBN EVC EVER EVFM EVH EVI EVLO EVOP EVRI EVTC EXLS EXPI EXPO EXPR EXTN EXTR EYE EYPT EZPW FARM FARO FATE FBC FBIZ FBK FBM FBMS FBNC FBP FC FCAP FCBC FCBP FCCY FCF FCFS FCN FCPT FDBC FDEF FDP FELE FET FF FFBC FFG FFIC FFIN FFNW FFWM FG FGBI FGEN FI FIBK FII FISI FIT FIVN FIX FIXX FIZZ FLDM FLIC FLMN FLNT FLOW FLWS FLXN FLXS FMAO FMBH FMBI FMNB FN FNCB FNHC FNKO FNLC FNWB FOCS FOE FOLD FOR FORM FORR FOSL FOXF FPI FPRX FR FRAC FRAF FRBA FRBK FRGI FRME FRPH FRPT FRTA FSB FSBW FSCT FSP FSS FSTR FTK FTR FTSI FTSV FUL FULC FULT FVCB FWRD GABC GAIA GALT GATX GBCI GBL GBLI GBT GBX GCAP GCBC GCI GCO GCP GDEN GDOT GDP GEF GEF.B GEN GENC GEO GEOS GERN GES GFF GFN GHDX GHL GHM GIII GKOS GLDD GLNG GLOG GLRE GLT GLUU GLYC GME GMED GMRE GMS GNC GNE GNK GNL GNLN GNMK GNRC GNTY GNW GOGO GOLF GOOD GORO GOSS GPI GPMT GPOR GPRE GPRO GPX GRBK GRC GRIF GRPN GRTS GSBC GSHD GSIT GTHX GTLS GTN GTS GTT GTY GTYH GVA GWB GWGH GWRS HA HABT HAE HAFC HALL HALO HARP HASI HAYN HBB HBCP HBMD HBNC HCAT HCC HCCI HCI HCKT HCSG HEES HELE HFFG HFWA HI HIBB HIFS HIIQ HL HLI HLIO HLIT HLNE HLX HMHC HMN HMST HMSY HMTV HNGR HNI HNRG HOFT HOMB HOME HONE HOOK HOPE HPR HQY HR HRI HRTG HRTX HSC HSII HSKA HSTM HT HTBI HTBK HTH HTLD HTLF HTZ HUBG HUD HURC HURN HVT HWBK HWC HWKN HY HZO I IBCP IBKC IBOC IBP IBTX ICD ICFI ICHR ICPT IDCC IDEX IDT IESC IHC III IIIN IIIV IIN IIPR IIVI ILPT IMAX IMGN IMKTA IMMR IMMU IMXI INBK INDB INFN INGN INN INO INOV INS INSE INSG INSM INSP INST INSW INT INTL INVA INWK IOSP IOTS IOVA IPAR IPHI IPHS IPI IRBT IRDM IRET IRMD IRT IRTC IRWD ISBC ISCA ISRL ISTR ITCI ITGR ITI ITIC ITRI IVC IVR JACK JAG JAX JBSS JBT JCAP JCOM JCP JELD JILL JJSF JNCE JOE JOUT JRVR JYNT KAI KALA KALU KALV KAMN KBAL KBH KBR KDMN KE KELYA KEM KFRC KFY KIDS KIN KLDO KLXE KMT KN KNL KNSA KNSL KOD KOP KPTI KRA KREF KRG KRNY KRO KRTX KRUS KRYS KTB KTOS KURA KVHI KW KWR KZR Daktronics, Inc. Dana, Inc. Darling Ingredients, Inc. Diebold Nixdorf, Inc. Designer Brands, Inc. Ducommun, Inc. Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. Deciphera Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 3D Systems Corp. Dillard’s, Inc. Easterly Government Properties, Inc. Deckers Outdoor Corp. Denny’s Corp. Dermira, Inc. Dean Foods Co. Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. Donegal Group, Inc. Digi International, Inc. Diamond Hill Investment Group, Inc. DHT Holdings, Inc. DHI Group, Inc. Dine Brands Global, Inc. Diodes, Inc. Daily Journal Corp. Delek US Holdings, Inc. Delta Apparel, Inc. Duluth Holdings, Inc. Deluxe Corp. Digimarc Corp. DNB Financial Corporation Denali Therapeutics, Inc. NOW, Inc. Denbury Resources, Inc. Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. Physicians Realty Trust Domo, Inc. Masonite International Corp. Dorman Products, Inc. Dova Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Diplomat Pharmacy, Inc. DiamondRock Hospitality Co. Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Dril-Quip, Inc. Drive Shack, Inc. Daseke, Inc. DSP Group, Inc. Diamond S Shipping, Inc. Precision BioSciences, Inc. Dynavax Technologies Corp. Dynex Capital, Inc. DXP Enterprises, Inc. Dycom Industries, Inc. DASAN Zhone Solutions Inc. Brinker International, Inc. Eventbrite, Inc. Ennis, Inc. Ebix, Inc. Emergent BioSolutions, Inc. Meridian Bancorp, Inc. Enterprise Bancorp, Inc. Echo Global Logistics, Inc. US Ecology, Inc. ChannelAdvisor Corp. electroCore, Inc. Encore Capital Group, Inc. Editas Medicine, Inc. El Paso Electric Co. Emerald Holding, Inc. Ellington Financial, Inc. Enterprise Financial Services Corp. eGain Corp. Eagle Bancorp, Inc. (Maryland) 8×8, Inc. Eagle Bulk Shipping, Inc. NIC, Inc. EastGroup Properties, Inc. Eagle Pharmaceuticals, Inc. eHealth, Inc. Eidos Therapeutics, Inc. Employers Holdings, Inc. Endurance International Group Eiger BioPharmaceuticals, Inc. e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. Eloxx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Elevate Credit, Inc. Callaway Golf Co. EMCOR Group, Inc. The Eastern Co. Endo International Plc Entegra Financial Corp. Enochian Biosciences, Inc. Enphase Energy, Inc. EnerSys The Ensign Group, Inc. Enanta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Envestnet, Inc. Enova International, Inc. Enzo Biochem, Inc. Evolus, Inc. Bottomline Technologies, Inc. Edgewell Personal Care Co. Evolution Petroleum Corp. Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. Epizyme, Inc. Equity Bancshares, Inc. Era Group, Inc. Eldorado Resorts, Inc. Energy Recovery, Inc. Eros International Plc Escalade, Inc. ESCO Technologies, Inc. Enstar Group Ltd. Essent Group Ltd. Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc. ESSA Bancorp, Inc. Earthstone Energy, Inc. Community Bankers Trust Corp. Ethan Allen Interiors, Inc. Entercom Communications Corp. Everbridge, Inc. Evans Bancorp, Inc. Entravision Communications Corp. EverQuote, Inc. Evofem Biosciences, Inc. Evolent Health, Inc. EVI Industries, Inc. Evelo Biosciences, Inc. EVO Payments, Inc. Everi Holdings, Inc. EVERTEC, Inc. ExlService Holdings, Inc. eXp World Holdings, Inc. Exponent, Inc. Express, Inc. Exterran Corp. Extreme Networks, Inc. National Vision Holdings, Inc. EyePoint Pharmaceuticals, Inc. EZCORP, Inc. Farmer Brothers Co. FARO Technologies, Inc. Fate Therapeutics, Inc. Flagstar Bancorp, Inc. First Business Financial Services, Inc. FB Financial Corp. Foundation Building Materials, Inc. The First Bancshares, Inc. (Mississippi) First Bancorp (North Carolina) First BanCorp (Puerto Rico) Franklin Covey Co. First Capital, Inc. First Community Bancshares, Inc. (Virginia) First Choice Bancorp (California) 1st Constitution Bancorp First Commonwealth Financial Corp. FirstCash, Inc. FTI Consulting, Inc. Four Corners Property Trust, Inc. Fidelity D&D Bancorp, Inc. First Defiance Financial Corp. Fresh Del Monte Produce, Inc. Franklin Electric Co., Inc. Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. FutureFuel Corp. First Financial Bancorp (Ohio) FBL Financial Group, Inc. Flushing Financial Corp. First Financial Bankshares, Inc. First Financial Northwest, Inc. First Foundation, Inc. FGL Holdings First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. FibroGen, Inc. Frank’s International NV First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (Montana) Federated Investors, Inc. Financial Institutions, Inc. Fitbit, Inc. Five9, Inc. Comfort Systems USA, Inc. Homology Medicines, Inc. National Beverage Corp. Fluidigm Corp. The First of Long Island Corp. Falcon Minerals Corp. Fluent, Inc. SPX Flow, Inc. 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. Flexion Therapeutics, Inc. Flexsteel Industries, Inc. Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc. (Ohio) First Mid Bancshares, Inc. First Midwest Bancorp, Inc. (Illinois) Farmers National Banc Corp. Fabrinet FNCB Bancorp, Inc. FedNat Holding Co. Funko, Inc. The First Bancorp, Inc. (Maine) First Northwest Bancorp (Washington) Focus Financial Partners, Inc. Ferro Corp. Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. Forestar Group, Inc. FormFactor, Inc. Forrester Research, Inc. Fossil Group, Inc. Fox Factory Holding Corp. Farmland Partners, Inc. Five Prime Therapeutics, Inc. First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. Keane Group, Inc. Franklin Financial Services Corp. First Bank (Hamilton, New Jersey) Republic First Bancorp, Inc. Fiesta Restaurant Group, Inc. First Merchants Corp. (Indiana) FRP Holdings, Inc. Freshpet Inc. Forterra, Inc. Franklin Financial Network, Inc. FS Bancorp, Inc. ForeScout Technologies, Inc. Franklin Street Properties Corp. Federal Signal Corp. L.B. Foster Co. Flotek Industries, Inc. Frontier Communications Corp. FTS International, Inc. Forty Seven, Inc. H.B. Fuller Co. Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. Fulton Financial Corp. FVCBankcorp, Inc. Forward Air Corp. German American Bancorp, Inc. Gaia, Inc. Galectin Therapeutics, Inc. GATX Corp. Glacier Bancorp, Inc. GAMCO Investors, Inc. Global Indemnity Ltd. Global Blood Therapeutics, Inc. Greenbrier Cos., Inc. GAIN Capital Holdings, Inc. Greene County Bancorp, Inc. Gannett Co., Inc. Genesco, Inc. GCP Applied Technologies, Inc. Golden Entertainment, Inc. Green Dot Corp. Goodrich Petroleum Corp. Greif, Inc. Greif, Inc. Genesis Healthcare, Inc. Gencor Industries, Inc. The GEO Group, Inc. Geospace Technologies Corp. Geron Corp. Guess?, Inc. Griffon Corp. General Finance Corp. Genomic Health, Inc. Greenhill & Co., Inc. Graham Corp. G-III Apparel Group Ltd. Glaukos Corp. Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp. Golar LNG Ltd. GasLog Ltd. Greenlight Capital Re Ltd. P.H. Glatfelter Co. Glu Mobile, Inc. GlycoMimetics, Inc. GameStop Corp. Globus Medical, Inc. Global Medical REIT, Inc. GMS, Inc. GNC Holdings, Inc. Genie Energy Ltd. Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. Global Net Lease, Inc. Greenlane Holdings, Inc. GenMark Diagnostics, Inc. Generac Holdings, Inc. Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (Texas) Genworth Financial, Inc. Gogo, Inc. Acushnet Holdings Corp. Gladstone Commercial Corp. Gold Resource Corp. Gossamer Bio, Inc. Group 1 Automotive, Inc. Granite Point Mortgage Trust, Inc. Gulfport Energy Corp. Green Plains, Inc. GoPro, Inc. GP Strategies Corp. Green Brick Partners, Inc. The Gorman-Rupp Co. Griffin Industrial Realty, Inc. Groupon, Inc. Gritstone Oncology, Inc. Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. (Missouri) Goosehead Insurance, Inc. GSI Technology, Inc. G1 Therapeutics, Inc. Chart Industries, Inc. Gray Television, Inc. Triple-S Management Corp. GTT Communications, Inc. Getty Realty Corp. GTY Technology Holdings, Inc. Granite Construction, Inc. Great Western Bancorp, Inc. (South Dakota) GWG Holdings, Inc. Global Water Resources, Inc. Hawaiian Holdings, Inc. The Habit Restaurants, Inc. Haemonetics Corp. Hanmi Financial Corp. Hallmark Financial Services, Inc. Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. Harpoon Therapeutics, Inc. Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Haynes International, Inc. Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Co. Home Bancorp, Inc. Howard Bancorp, Inc. (Maryland) Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (Indiana) Health Catalyst, Inc. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. Heritage-Crystal Clean, Inc. HCI Group, Inc. The Hackett Group, Inc. Healthcare Services Group, Inc. H&E Equipment Services, Inc. Helen of Troy Ltd. HF Foods Group, Inc. Heritage Financial Corp. (Washington) Hillenbrand, Inc. Hibbett Sports, Inc. Hingham Institution for Savings Health Insurance Innovations, Inc. Hecla Mining Co. Houlihan Lokey, Inc. Helios Technologies, Inc. Harmonic, Inc. Hamilton Lane, Inc. Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Co. Horace Mann Educators Corp. HomeStreet, Inc. HMS Holdings Corp. Hemisphere Media Group, Inc. Hanger, Inc. HNI Corp. Hallador Energy Co. Hooker Furniture Corp. Home Bancshares, Inc. (Arkansas) At Home Group, Inc. HarborOne Bancorp, Inc. HOOKIPA Pharma, Inc. Hope Bancorp, Inc. HighPoint Resources Corp. HealthEquity, Inc. Healthcare Realty Trust, Inc. Herc Holdings, Inc. Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. Heron Therapeutics, Inc. Harsco Corp. Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. Heska Corp. HealthStream, Inc. Hersha Hospitality Trust HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. Heritage Commerce Corp. Hilltop Holdings, Inc. Heartland Express, Inc. Heartland Financial USA, Inc. Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. Hub Group, Inc. Hudson Ltd. Hurco Cos., Inc. Huron Consulting Group, Inc. Haverty Furniture Cos., Inc. Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. Hancock Whitney Corp. Hawkins, Inc. Hyster-Yale Materials Handling, Inc. MarineMax, Inc. Intelsat SA Independent Bank Corp. (Michigan) IBERIABANK Corp. International Bancshares Corp. Installed Building Products, Inc. Independent Bank Group, Inc. Independence Contract Drilling, Inc. ICF International, Inc. Ichor Holdings Ltd. Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc. InterDigital, Inc. Ideanomics, Inc. IDT Corp. IES Holdings, Inc. Independence Holding Co. Information Services Group, Inc. Insteel Industries, Inc. i3 Verticals, Inc. Intricon Corp. Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. II-VI, Inc. Industrial Logistics Properties Trust IMAX Corp. ImmunoGen, Inc. Ingles Markets, Inc. Immersion Corp. Immunomedics, Inc. International Money Express, Inc. First Internet Bancorp Independent Bank Corp. (Massachusetts) Infinera Corp. Inogen, Inc. Summit Hotel Properties, Inc. Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Inovalon Holdings, Inc. Intelligent Systems Corp. Inspired Entertainment, Inc. Inseego Corp. Insmed, Inc. Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. Instructure, Inc. International Seaways, Inc. World Fuel Services Corp. INTL FCStone, Inc. Innoviva, Inc. InnerWorkings, Inc. Innospec, Inc. Adesto Technologies Corp. Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. Inter Parfums, Inc. Inphi Corp. Innophos Holdings, Inc. Intrepid Potash, Inc. iRobot Corp. Iridium Communications, Inc. Investors Real Estate Trust IRadimed Corp. Independence Realty Trust, Inc. iRhythm Technologies, Inc. Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Investors Bancorp, Inc. (New Jersey) International Speedway Corp. Isramco, Inc. Investar Holding Corp. Intra-Cellular Therapies, Inc. Integer Holdings Corp. Iteris, Inc. Investors Title Co. Itron, Inc. Invacare Corp. Invesco Mortgage Capital, Inc. Jack in the Box, Inc. Jagged Peak Energy, Inc. J. Alexander’s Holdings, Inc. John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. John Bean Technologies Corp. Jernigan Capital, Inc. j2 Global, Inc. J. C. Penney Co., Inc. JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. J.Jill, Inc. J&J Snack Foods Corp. Jounce Therapeutics, Inc. The St. Joe Co. Johnson Outdoors, Inc. James River Group Holdings Ltd. The Joint Corp. (United States) Kadant, Inc. Kala Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Kaiser Aluminum Corp. KalVista Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Kaman Corp. Kimball International, Inc. KB Home KBR, Inc. Kadmon Holdings, Inc. Kimball Electronics, Inc. Kelly Services, Inc. KEMET Corp. Kforce, Inc. Korn Ferry OrthoPediatrics Corp. Kindred Biosciences, Inc. Kaleido Biosciences, Inc. KLX Energy Services Holdings, Inc. Kennametal, Inc. Knowles Corp. Knoll, Inc. Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd. Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. Kodiak Sciences, Inc. Koppers Holdings, Inc. Karyopharm Therapeutics, Inc. Kraton Corp. KKR Real Estate Finance Trust, Inc. Kite Realty Group Trust Kearny Financial Corp. Kronos Worldwide, Inc. Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. Kura Sushi USA, Inc. Krystal Biotech, Inc. Kontoor Brands, Inc. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Kura Oncology, Inc. KVH Industries, Inc. (Delaware) Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. Quaker Chemical Corp. Kezar Life Sciences, Inc. Russell 2000 Stocks List (L-R) LAD LADR LANC LAND LASR LAUR LAWS LBAI LBC LBRT LC LCI LCII LCNB LCTX LCUT LDL LE LEAF LEE LEGH LEVL LFVN LGIH LGND LHCG LILA LILAK LIND LITE LIVN LIVX LJPC LKFN LKSD LL LLNW LMAT LMNR LMNX LNDC LNN LNTH LOB LOCO LOGC LORL LOVE LPG LPI LPSN LPX LQDA LQDT LRN LSCC LTC LTHM LTRPA LTS LTXB LVGO LXFR LXP LXRX LXU LZB MANT MATW MATX MAXR MBI MBII MBIN MBIO MBUU MBWM MC MCB MCBC MCFT MCHX MCRB MCRI MCRN MCS MDC MDCA MDCO MDGL MDP MDR MDRX MEC MED MEDP MEET MEI MEIP MESA METC MFIN MFNC MFSF MG MGEE MGLN MGNX MGPI MGRC MGTA MGTX MGY MHO MIK MINI MIRM MITK MITT MJCO MLAB MLHR MLI MLND MLP MLR MLVF MMAC MMI MMS MMSI MNK MNKD MNLO MNOV MNR MNRL MNRO MNSB MNTA MOBL MOD MODN MOFG MOG.A MORF MOV MPAA MPB MPX MR MRC MRCY MRKR MRLN MRNS MRSN MRTN MRTX MSA MSBI MSEX MSGN MSON MSTR MTDR MTEM MTH MTOR MTRN MTRX MTSC MTSI MTW MTX MTZ MUSA MVBF MWA MXL MYE MYGN MYOK MYRG NANO NAT NATH NATR NAV NBEV NBHC NBN NBR NBTB NC NCBS NCI NCMI NCSM NDLS NE NEO NEOG NERV NESR NEWM NEXT NFBK NG NGHC NGM NGS NGVC NGVT NHC NHI NINE NJR NKSH NL NMIH NMRK NNBR NNI NODK NOG NOVA NOVT NP NPK NPO NPTN NR NRC NRCG NRIM NSA NSIT NSP NSSC NSTG NTB NTCT NTGN NTGR NTLA NTRA NTUS NUVA NVAX NVCR NVEC NVEE NVRO NVTA NWBI NWE NWFL NWLI NWN NWPX NX NXGN NXRT NXTC NYMT NYNY OAS OBNK OCFC OCN OCUL OCX ODC ODP ODT OEC OFG OFIX OFLX OGS OII OIS OLBK OLP OMCL OMER OMI OMN ONB ONCE ONDK OOMA OPB OPBK OPI OPK OPRX OPTN OPY ORA ORBC ORC ORGO ORIT ORRF OSBC OSG OSIS OSMT OSPN OSTK OSUR OSW OTTR OVBC OVLY OXM PACB PACD PAHC PAR PARR PATK PAYS PBFS PBH PBI PBIP PBPB PBYI PCB PCH PCRX PCSB PCYO PDCE PDCO PDFS PDLB PDLI PDM PEB PEBK PEBO PEGI PEI PENN PETQ PETS PFBC PFBI PFGC PFIS PFNX PFS PFSI PGC PGNX PGTI PHAS PHR PHUN PHX PI PICO PIRS PJC PJT PKBK PKD PKE PKOH PLAB PLAY PLCE PLMR PLOW PLPC PLSE PLT PLUG PLUS PLXS PMBC PMT PNM PNRG PNTG POL POR POWI POWL PPBI PQG PRA PRAA PRFT PRGS PRGX PRIM PRK PRLB PRMW PRNB PRO PROS PROV PRPL PRSC PRSP PRTA PRTH PRTK PRTY PRVL PSB PSDO PSMT PSN PSNL PTCT PTE PTGX PTLA PTN PTSI PTVCB PUB PUMP PVAC PVBC PWOD PYX PZN PZZA QADA QCRH QDEL QEP QLYS QNST QTRX QTS QTWO QUAD QUOT RAD RAMP RARE RARX RAVN RBB RBBN RBCAA RBNC RC RCII RCKT RCKY RCM RCUS RDFN RDI RDN RDNT RDUS REAL RECN REGI REI REPH REPL RES RESI RETA REV REVG REX REXR RFL RGCO RGEN RGNX RGR RGS RH RHP RICK RIGL RILY RLGT RLGY RLH RLI RLJ RM RMAX RMBI RMBS RMNI RMR RMTI RNET RNST ROAD ROAN ROCK ROG ROIC ROLL ROSE RPD RPT RRBI RRD RRGB RRR RRTS RST RTEC RTIX RTRX RTW RUBI RUBY RUN RUSHA RUSHB RUTH RVI RVNC RVSB RWT RXN RYAM RYI RYTM
OANDA:US2000USD
by MaverickTrading
In depth analysis of the stock market! Macro series pt3Part 3 This is the third part of the macro analysis series. In this part we'll focus on analyzing the current situation of the stock market based on fundamental and technical analysis, while trying to map out the future depending on how the Fed and the economy move. You can find the rest of the analysis on the links down below. Let’s now transition into stocks and have a look at the three major US indices, as they are the best way to get a good picture of what is going on in stocks markets broadly. It is hard to find a way to get the full picture in one chart, especially when it comes to looking things globally. That’s why we’ll focus only on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000, due to the fact that the US has been leading this rally, as well as because we can get information on the performance of different types of stocks. Starting with the S&P, it is clear that it has broken its uptrend and has found support on the first major support level, around 4220-4280. On that level it also happens to be the 300 DMA, but the issue is that the market keeps testing the support (bearish) and it has been rejected by the 200 DMA on the first bounce. Nevertheless, the support has held beautifully up until now and might have even bottomed. In our opinion this isn’t the final bottom as we expected to see more downside at some point in 2022, with 3900-4000 being the first major target. This area is potentially one of the best ones for the final bottom as that’s the only breakout the market didn’t retest, plus there is a gap there on SPY. So far, the current correction was 12.4% top to bottom, and getting down to 3900-4000 would be around 18%, which is more than enough for a major bottom to be in. Back in 2018 it took a 21% correction for the Fed to pivot and stop raising rates. It wouldn’t surprise us at all if the Fed was forced to stop raising rates and maybe even restart QE if the S&P500 fell more than 20%, although it wouldn’t do it just because stocks fell. If US treasury bonds are going down (yields up), then the 60/40 portfolios would be losing value rapidly by being forced to sell both bonds and stocks. Of course, the problem isn’t just these two markets going down and affecting investor sentiment and spending, but the problems they can create on credit markets broadly. For example, if stocks and bonds go down, it is very likely that corporate bonds will go down too, and therefore many companies which are already struggling, would be forced to borrow with much higher yields or not be able to borrow at all. Again, the problem is that there is too much debt and the system isn’t be able to withstand rapid changes in interest rates and liquidity. Like we mentioned above, the S&P doesn’t show the full picture, so we need to add the other two major indices to the mix. We’ll start with some important stats and move into their charts. From their Feb 2020 highs, the S&P went up 41%, the Nasdaq 71% and the Russell 44%. The Russell was the best performer from the March 2020 bottom up until March 2021, where it started going sideways and entered a very clear distribution phase. That’s because it benefited the most from long term US yields going up and the loose financial conditions that helped smaller companies do well. Another important component to the rally was the speculative mania that started from the Wall Street Bets subreddit with Gamestop, and then spread into other heavily shorted companies which started rallying hard. This is potentially a sign that deflation is coming back and that buying US large caps is still the best bet over the next few months. However, once that mania started reaching its peak, we saw several sectors and ETFs roll over, in and out of the US. We saw SPAK, ARKK and even the Shanghai index all top at the same time on Feb 2021. In exactly one year the RUT had 150% rally from top to bottom and until reaches its 2018-2019 highs it will probably underperform relative to other major US indices. Despite many stocks performing poorly, the SPX and NDX kept going higher, so it started becoming obvious that something was shifting. So how did that happen? How could several sectors of the market go down, how could so many stocks go sideways and lose value, and the major US indices continue to rally? The clear explanation is that the rally was led by US tech giants. US tech behemoths kept gaining market share and kept growing and growing. Despite what many people might think, these tech behemoths going up while everything else is suffering isn’t a long-term bullish signal, neither an inflationary one. That’s because many view these companies essentially as safe assets and treat them like long duration bonds. When looking at where stocks are right now, it is very clear that they are significantly oversold on a Daily timeframe, something also confirmed by several metrics. At the same time though, they are still pretty expensive as they had exceeded the yearly average return (10%) by a lot. Their momentum is strong to the downside and on a weekly timeframe they haven’t gotten oversold. Many of you have probably heard people say many times that the stock market is overvalued and that a big bear market is near, only to see the market rally relentlessly up until a month ago. It is very important to note that the stock market based on most metrics is actually overvalued and has reached levels that historically would have led to a bear market. Even though this might be true; it doesn’t mean that because a certain signal worked in the past it will work again. Regardless of what all these metrics are indicating, the stock market could pull another 2-3x from here in the next decade, while having several 10-30% corrections in the meantime. That’s because the dynamics of the markets are very complex and keep evolving, while more and more people are depended on the stock market to go up, both of which have turned the stock market as something that the government and the Fed need to protect. Even if that wasn’t the case, any market can stay irrational for a very long period of time. All the people who are believe they are thinking rationally are dumfounded because invest based on some potentially outdated models, as they discount many other factors like market structure, psychology and liquidity. Eventually they will probably be right, but in the meantime, they’d have missed a lot of opportunities. Currently the SPX and NDX flirted with support for a bit and bounced, while RUT made a new low and then bounced. The next resistance for SPX and NDX is 3-5% higher, while for RUT it is 5-10% higher. Getting there doesn’t mean we will get a huge rejection, as it is more likely that markets take a break and chop before deciding which direction they are going to choose. It is even possible that the SPX could make new ATHs before it starts rolling over again. The reason is that we could shake out late bears and potentially late longs coming in to take advantage of the ‘liquidity’ the Fed is providing as QE hasn’t stopped yet. The fact that the markets closed the week at pretty much the same level they were before hawkish Fed meeting, is fairly bullish. Because it means that the markets have somewhat priced in a lot of the negativity and there are many people who sold late. Even from a sentiment point of view, there are several ‘indicators’ that are screaming buy. Some examples are twitter polls both in stocks and crypto being skewed 25/75 bullish/bearish, real-life people I know that wanted to buy at 65k BTC tell me they are worried that I could lose everything, as well as everyone on twitter talking about how ARKK is down so much that its 2-year performance is now equivalent to that of Berkshire Hathaway. In terms of the next key support for SPX and NDX, it is 10% lower while for RUT it is 10-16% lower. If the market gets there, we could either see the final bottom there, or simply a very and a strong bouncer. It is pretty early to tell whether the bull market is over yet, but in our opinion it seems unlikely. By looking back at the 1995-2000 period on the NDX, we can see that once the market broke above the major diagonal resistance, there were lots of 10-20% corrections and retests of that diagonal. This time around we’ve only tested the diagonal twice and this the largest correction out of the four that have occurred and were larger than 10%. The only index out of the three that is indicating major issues, is the Russell. Another very important index that isn’t tracking the performance of stocks, but is tracking the volatility of the stock market is the VIX. The VIX can give us a lot of information around fear, uncertainty and change, based on the levels it is trading at and based on how it’s moving. Generally speaking, when the VIX is trading below 16, there is little uncertainty, fear and change, when the VIX is trading 16-32 things there is change, however fear and uncertainty are at moderate levels, while with VIX above 32 there is a lot of uncertainty, a lot of fear and things are changing rapidly. The higher the VIX, the more intense the sentiment on the market. During this correction the VIX got up to 39, which historically is pretty high and was even higher than the 36-37 zone which has as acted as ‘resistance’ on the VIX several times in the past. Although this could be the top for the VIX (bottom for stocks) like in Dec 2018 when the Fed was hiking rates, in our opinion it isn’t and we expect 48-50 to be the top for VIX (bottom for stocks). There are several reasons behind this thinking and a lot goes back to the Fed, the economy, etc, most importantly however, it has to do with the psychology of the market. We feel investors haven’t been scared enough in order to fully capitulate and be shaken out of their longs, neither is the Fed cornered enough to do a 180 turn yet. With so many things changing in the world it doesn’t make sense for volatility to be so low and that at some point as the Fed is raising rates, something could break and cause significant panic. One thing to keep in mind is that in case of severe economic weakness and rapid drop in the inflation rate, then the Fed could use that as an excuse not to raise rates before the market forces them to stop. In that scenario the VIX might topped for a very long time at 39, as the markets will assume the Fed has their back and they don’t have to worry about higher interest rates. During the GFC the VIX peaked at 95 and during the Covid crash at 85. Back then once it got down to 15-16 it had two spikes up to 48, while this time around it has remained lower with most peaks below 40. Of course, 39 is a perfectly reasonable top for 2022, although we don’t see a way that the Fed hikes 3+ times without at least one of them creating significant panic. Last point on the VIX and stocks broadly, is that it looks like it has formed a significant bottom throughout 2021 and that it currently has a proper long term bullish structure. It’s pretty rare to see it form significant higher highs and higher lows, which could be seen as a sign that there is at least another leg up. Maybe go down to 18-22, test the yearly Pivot & the major moving averages, and then pump.
FX:SPX500
by BitcoinMacro
Risk Management Trading is a business based on probabilities, therefore the key to success in this field is to stack the odds/probabilities in your favor - in simpler terms take high probability trades. Idea behind this trade : parabolic move upwards Reasoning: BB bands tightening up- this is generally seen right before an explosive move - Price is above the ATR indicating a bullish environment Conclusion: TZA can potentially have a massive move upwards * I always prioritize excellence in risk management, therefore in every trade you take no matter your level of conviction you must always protect your capital, my favorite forms of risk management is : 1. Hedge 2. Diversification 3. Position sizing 4. Stop loss Just to name a few
AMEX:TZALong
by Everythingxyz
$IWM Russel 2000 - Small caps previous support now resistance?Small caps tend to lead the market. Not a great picture as we saw a strong reversal off previous support yesterday. Technically we have the 50dma trading below both the declining 200day sma and emas. The moving averages are pointing down and we are still under the anchored vwaps from the previous highs. We also seem to be forming a rising wedge formation which are usually continuation patterns in the direction of the previous trend (currently down). Not much to be bullish about in this chart, so odds are in favour of further downside, unless we can climb above a mountain of significant resistance levels above (something which seems unlikely at this stage).
AMEX:IWMShort
by MarcoOlevano