Is BNGO Undervalued In The Short Term?NASDAQ:BNGO
TVC:RUT
EASYMARKETS:NDQUSD
In my previous articles I have talked about the fundamentals of BNGO and how I believe it is a strong company in the long term. For this reason I am choosing to hold a long position on BNGO. I added more shares at $4.00 today, increasing my long term holdings, and ability to sell covered calls. I trust that management will continue to grow the company, and that the future will be bright.
That being said, in the short term investors must find a way to make money in the rocky price movement of BNGO's stock price. We will speaking in a three month time frame for majority of this article. BNGO has faced a steady decline over the last few months with very little chance of breaking out, but on November 24, 2021 the price appeared to stop, with a huge influx of buyers into the price. this came after the stock began to free fall triggering limit buys to kick in. Everyday positive news comes out on BNGO and yet the price continues to decline, this causes fear into buying in. The large influx of buying suggests that people believe in the company, but are nervous about the short term potential of the company. Will the price continue to go down? I believe we will know within the next 2 weeks. With industry peers continuing to grow in price, the RUT (marked in orange) hasn't felt the same decline as BNGO in the last month, and has instead turned rather positive, suggesting momentum may be shifting. If BNGO can hop on the momentum shift of small cap stocks, the price may pull out of this down trend. We must also consider the NSADAQ which has felt a pull back since the start of November. With the overall market feeling the effects of a down turn, it is no surprise a stock so price elastic would be affected. after considering all these implications, we can realize that the price of BNGO is heavily based off the buyer mindset. If the next two weeks are good for both the RUT and NDQ, BNGO will rally along, if not BNGO will continue to fall as seller pile in and buyers dwindle out.
“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” - Warren Buffett
As today (November 29 , 2021 comes to a close, it appears BNGO has sold off more than it has been bought on the day, which is the first time since July 14, 2021. The latter date signaled the start of the steady decline we have seen. Is this an indicator of the continuation of tough times ahead, or is this the lack patience investors have, who will regret the move in the short term? Although times are uncertain, investors should always plan to hold for the long term, traders may come and go, and the bulls will always be there, but by protecting yourself against downside loss, BNGO should be the least of investors worries.
I am currently selling covered calls against my position on a 45 - 100 day basis, I am doing this to remain profitable on a diving stock. I am holding put options below the current price as a way to hedge against loss, and a major free fall back to 1$ or below. I bought more shares today as a way to further increase my ability to sell covered calls. I am unaffected by the short term price movement of the stock based off my suggested positions below.
Current Positions In BNGO:
Stock positions @5.97
Stock Positions @4.00
Short Call options @1.21 for a strike of $5, for 21-01-2022.
Long Put options @0.22 for a strike of $4, for 17-12-2021. This is to hedge against short term downside lost.
Long Put Options @0. 05 for a strike of $2, for 21-01-2022. to protect against a major free fall in price.
Short Call options @0.21 for a strike of $6, for 21-01-2022. This is my most recent addition to continue generating income on my long position- and to help pay for the continuation of purchasing put options against a free fall.
Russell2000
that's what SL is for.recently russel broke the ceiling that was holding it for almost a year.
now it would be interesting entering a long during the retest. placing the SL just bellow last low made the 27th of october.
not because it's a safe trade but becasuse of the RR involved, since that the range has been broken, this leaves us with a proyection to the up side equivalent to the range it selve, wich is also the 1.6fib proyection of the recent impulse after the lst corrective phase.
currently the price is sitting on the 50% retracement of the move done until now.
on daily there are clear signs of a correction in act, volume is not as high as during the ceiling break and tho it made almost the sale movement.
on 4htf stochastic is starting to cross to the upside, i find stochastic the best indicator to trade russel's mid high tf, since it's a "range indicator", and in a range is where rus has been for almost a year.
on the 1H ft, there are divergences on stoch and rsi. this doesn't mean that the divergence can't follow forming.
in the end, it's a nice RR trade of 4:1, in'm already booked in at the 50%fib, and if goes to 38% i will think about adding contracts, using the same sl.
take in count that trading is not about having a 80% hit rate, that's impossible, and if some one says he does...well he was probably long during 2020/21. i mean, it doesn't surprise me that people will have had great RR these 2 years, but that shouldn't be taken as reference. the normal hit rate should be around 50% and risk managing like if your life depended on it makes your account grow steadily and constantly.
use the power of a steady compound growth rather than a yolo
and use SL, que pa' eso estàn Ramon
Hustle in the RussellAnother straight forward idea, RTY came back into a very nice retracement area with the down sloping trend line and horizontal support from the September high. This is a great area to add for a bounce and a stop would be a daily close below today's low. The target is around the 2380 area, and if all goes well it should tag it before the end of the year.
20 year elliott wave analysis ($iwm)someone asked me this evening if i thought iwm was in a phase of distribution right now- so i decided to take a deep dive into the entire history of this chart, and here's what i've come up with.
no, i do not think it is in a phase of distribution, instead it actually looks like a massive bull flag - in elliott wave theory terms, i'll call it a double or triple three - hard to say for now, since it is only halfway through this flat corrective phase.
my low ball long term upside target for iwm is at $335, high ball would be $375
this is in confluence with my 12 year spy analysis, you can view it down below:
ps. flat corrections can take a really long time to resolve, so i'd wait for a definitive break out, and a retest of the entire channel that it's in right now before attempting to play that upside swing.
US2000 Russel Supply And Demand Analysis-Price broke out of 1 year range.
- Looking for long positions if price pulls back
into the RBR demand using it as support/ breakout
restest zone.
-Confirmation on LTF
S&P 5,000,000The talk of the town is the Market is overdue for a plummet!
Fun fact: This has been the narrative for the last decade as far as I am aware.
It's more likely that the major indicies will continue grinding up or even go sideways a bit.
This chart certainly appears to signal "euphoria". It looks overextended, parabolic, intimidating, right?
Now if we press the reality button labeled "log" it will adjust the chart based on percentage change. Then like magic, we can adjust the visual scale and BOOM, it's all gone. Of course the ideal chart to use lies somewhere in the middle. But when looking at a long term chart with large numbers, always use log scale. (Try it on Bitcoin)
What are we even worried about?
Suppose we do get a sell off. Let's measure out the damage from the Global Financial Crisis. We find more number magic with the percentage gains going up are far greater than while going down.
What about the looming Solvency Crisis?
"What if's" are not going to make anyone money unless you're the one selling click bait articles. But there is a way to trade this and still feel safe. Here are the conditions...
Put on a 1 Hour chart, buy dips, sell rallies. Each short term rally is about $50-$100 on the S&P500 and the benefit of short term trades under the conditions below helps steer clear of "crisis" danger.
1. (Daily) MACD is above zero
2. (Daily) EMA is acting as support
3. (1 Hour) RSI dips to bottom channel
There you have it. Feel free to stay on the sidelines with Peter Schiff and Steve Van Metere but this is my strategy for trading micro ES futures up until September 2021.
Will post active trades below.
Trading is risky. Don't do it.
Hard to analyze W/ high volatility in 2021 !Symmetrical Triangle: A symmetrical triangle is
composed of a diagonal falling upper trendline and
a diagonally rising lower trendline. As the price
moves toward the apex, it will inevitably breach
the upper trendline for a breakout and uptrend on
rising prices or breach the lower trendline forming
a breakdown and downtrend with falling prices.