Russell2000
The most important support and resistance level of Major IndexesSeptember 2021 was a horrible month for major indexes, they experienced the biggest decline since February 2021.
September performance:
S&P 500 (-4.76%)
NASDAQ 100(-5.73%)
Dow Jones(-4.29%)
Russell 2000(-3.05%)
Chance of making money by opening long positions in September was really low!
I believe raising the debt ceiling by Oct. 18 could bring market out of limbo..! But if it is not going to happen, we are going to see lower LOWs..!
Monitoring the market in the next 2 weeks for those who are sitting on cash will pays off..!
I would like to finish with George Soros:
In my financial dealings, the discover of error would often present an opportunity to take whatever profits I had made from my flawed initial insight or cut my losses if the insight had not yielded even a temporary profitable result. Most people are reluctant to admit that they are wrong; it gave me positive pleasure to discover a mistake because I know it could save me from financial grief.
In these charts, you can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days!
RUSSELL BREAK COMING SOON!!The Russell 2000 has been in a year long consolidation pattern - w/ price finding supply above 2315 & demand below 2165 - We are currently opening the month inside last months & last quarters value - which makes price action neutral at the moment - BUT price held up well durning this latest equity selloff showing some relative strength & a possible short term higher low - looking for a break & buildup above 2257 top setup for another test of the highs w/ probability of finally breaking out of this range increasing - however price action below this months open should b considered negative and any bullish setups would have to wait till we move back above.
Watch & see how it plays out!!!
RUSSEL INDEX : MOST Favourable RUSSEL 2000 expected to outperform all US Index in next Upmove ..... Maximum down is 2125...
The worst trading month of the year finally finished..!Let's Review My posts About September 2021 before it happens:
1- August 24th, 2021:
What is "witching" and why is it quadruple?
Conclusion:
We can use this data to find the seasonality of the market! This could help us make better decisions especially in the weeks leading to Quadruple witching.
2- September 2nd, 2021:
The market does not like long weekends..!
It seems in 2021, anytime we have had a long weekend, it has been followed by a correction between 1.5 - 5.5%.
Another important historical data that makes it more likely is September performance!
The average monthly historical return of S&P 500 between 1950-2017, shows September is the worst month of the year..!(Investopedia)
I believe a 2-4% correction could be the most probable scenario in the coming week..!
3- September 8th, 2021:
Breaking down a movement!
4- September 9th, 2021:
Rounding Top or More correction is coming..!
Last words:
S&P 500 finished September with -4.76%, very close to my (-2% to 4% prediction) on September 2nd, 2021.
This was the biggest monthly correction since March 2020..!
Try to gather as much data as you can and use them with a neutral mindset, you will see the result!
Moshkelgosha
Market Dashboard - RecapWith NAS and SPX making Lower Lows it time to be on the look-out for RSI Divergences, Volume and a reversal pattern. The prospective i-H&S pattern on NAS was swamped by Russell confirmation of a H&S: as the Vix breaks out a pennant. The game changes Vix +20, in this case resistance is being met with instant selling pressure.
Weekly Bearish Harami at PCZ of Bearish 5-0 on PalantirWe are at the PCZ of a bearish 5-0 and the weekly candle which is currently opened is as of right now a Bearish Harami but it hasn't closed yet but since i like to speculate and get the best price i will be entering a bearish position tomorrow in anticipation of the weekly closing bearishly and i suspect that it will make a lower low down to the 0.886 retracement.
Major indexes Review and Support level UpdateAll major indexes started the week with a down gap and have continued sinking so far.
These are the fact we should pay attention to:
1- 4786 out of 5816 traded assets are trading at lower prices today, 82.2%.
2- All major indexes trading below their 50 days moving averages
3- They are all trading near to the lowest daily numbers, which shows they are not settled down.
4- They just experienced 4-7% correction from their tops..!
5- This is the longest time in the history of the S&P 500 without a 10% correction.
6- September historically is the worst month of the year in comparison to other months in the past 70 years.
7- This correction must be considered as a correction unless we have enough evidence of trend reversal.
8- S&P 500 and Dow Jones have been closed at lower numbers 8 days out of the last 10 trading days, and NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 7 out of last 10 days closed at lower numbers! this clearly showed in short term more correction is more likely..!
In conclusion, I believe we should wait for a sign of reversal, and we do not have any sign yet.
Being ready is important:
Let's review the process of this analysis in the past few weeks:
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
RTY - Russell 2000 a consistent Sell @ HighsIndependent Producers are being systematically crushed, slowly being
wiped off the Competition Map.
The Map itself is on a well defined Roll Up.
Wreck them, collect them.
Master of the obvious type stuff I know but many seem to cling to their
hopes.
The RUT has a large composition of Mixed Bags to hold.
Weightings:
Consumer Discretionary @ 13.1%
Financials @ 15.1%
Health Care @ 21..11%
Industrials @ 15.35%
Information Technology @ 14.13%
Communications, Consumer Staples, Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities,
Telecoms and Real Estate make up the balance.
A horizontally opposed group of Sectors... On the surface of it, many
would argue it is a balanced Index.
It is certainly not, it is a place where Wall Street Parks $ during periods
of indecision as it is a "Safe Place" for BlackRock and Vanguard to defend
positions.... there are 2,000, but a very few are needed based upon
the Sector weightings.
Total Volatility is Highest for the RTY relative to the ES YM NQ (NQ Being 2nd in VX).
___________________________________________________________________
We anticipate a run back up to the Top of the Range @ 2335, our last sell for
a great many handles due South.
Russel 2000: further upside potential?A price action above 2250 supports a bullish trend direction.
Remains above its 200-day simple moving average.
Upside price potential supports the bullish trend.
Improving bullish trend according to Heikin Ashi.
Might see a scenario of walking of the Bollinger Bands
Note the price action that is low according to the Linear Regression channel pattern. This also supports a bullish bias.
RTY and what I learn from my brotherI have not posted in few weeks and why is because I have working on new strategy. Everything I know of trading I learn from my brother honestly. He is the best trader I know and smartest person I know. He mentors me with trading. Much more in the past than now because I am a much better trader now. But he still helps me. He bankrolled my first trading account with 25000 USD and when I make this back I try and pay him back but he said keep it. Wow! I'm lucky. He is incredible with computers and he is a person that big companies hire to try and break in to their computers system and he finds the holes and weakness. (He got into a bit of teenage trouble for this, but he is very good man, now especially). He is also on tradingview but that is where I will leave it. Then he builds algorhythms that seal up the flaws. I don't pretend to understand. He also codes for trading strategies and I have the advantage of getting them no cost. but I digress. LOL
So I notice that after 6 months that my returns start to fade some. This is despite me not changing anything about my strategy. So I seek my brothers advice. I ask him if this is statistically significant or not. He did some analysis and said yes this is real and significant. When your strategy becomes less profitable the market has adjusted to your strategy and it is time to make some adjustments. He said he would give me the strategy he is using now, but I said nope let me figure this out. So I get to work and I come up with a strategy that uses a moving average, RSI and ADX/DI. No shapes or wedges, support or drawing. I like this.
I played around with my new strategy and use backtester that my brother uses. I find I can win almost 80% of trades with a risk reward of well over 3:!. I go to him and I say this can't be right. So he analyzed it too and came up with similar numbers. He said now for to forward test it for the real test. So over the past few weeks I did this and so did my brother. These are the results.
PuckBunny
total trades 72
wins 55
losses 17
win percentage 76%
reward to risk ratio: 3.53:1
Sortino ratio of 2.03
Brother Puckbunny
total trades 84
wins 69
losses 15
win percentage 82%
Reward to risk: 3.22:1
Sortino ratio 2.41
So of course he always beats me and I ask him how. he said he adjusted my moving average to change to longer or shorter depending on volatility. Thus more trades, more win percentage and more money. He gave me the indicator he built for this and make it dummy (me) proof by showing the sells and buys on chart.
An interesting part of this strategy is that the risk is quite large. In fact, in some trades the risk is 4 times more than potential reward. The thinking is that based on chance alone the price is much more likely to hit target than be stopped out. Add to this a directional bias and you have a winning strategy. the big risk is the opposite of what most of us were teach. However, he has built a safety being that he adjusts the stop in kind of a reverse trailing stop loss, based on how much below entry price is and volatility. So this big risk is rarely realized.
So I have been using this strategy for 1 week and I take 7 trades and win them all. Now this is my first one to post. You can see details on chart.
RTY long 2272 (you can see buy signal on chart)
stop loss 2166 (I know right?)
Let's see how this goes.
S&P500 SPX week 34 preview and trading ideaYesterday (Monday 23 Aug), the market quickly recovered the last week correction and is trying to test the $4500 level. The S&P 500 E-mini Futures tested the $4492 level around 08:00 AM (London Time, GMT+1).
The previous correction lasted about 5 days and it took about 5 days to recover. This correction, as well as the recovery, lasted both 2 days. After the breakout of the previous resistance level, we expect a trading range of around 66 points ($4455 – $4520).
The focus of the week is on the Federal Reserve policymakers’ virtual appearance at the bank’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (Thursday – Saturday). Fed Chair Powell will speak on Friday. This event, as well as other factors such as the “New Home Sales”, “Core Durable Good Orders”, “Crude Oil Inventories”, “GDP Q2”, “Initial Jobless Claims”, etc. will add volatility to the week.
This week’s trading idea is to sell the 4535/4540 vertical call spread with expiration 27 Aug 2021 for a credit around $0.55 against a $5 collateral.
Russell 2000 back to support zone and down 6 days in a rowThe Russell 2000 ($IWM) is once again back to this 210 band of prior support. We've seen buyers step in around this this level about half a dozen times this year. We're also closing below the lower Bollinger Band.
The million dollar question: Is this time different? Place your bets!
RUSSELL ON MULTI MONTH BULLISHTapering should not stop this index to reach the moon. FED still keeps printing anyway. Meanwhile, business and economic environment will be getting better from this good momentum.
Gold 120 Pips In ProfitGood day guys! This is just an update in regards to this trade I put out over in the morning. We did get the RSI divergence to the zone that was marked and our entries were placed. We are currently up 118+ pips in profit. If you were able to get into this position, be sure to trail your SL into profit. Do not be surprised if you see price head higher to form a topping pattern. We do appreciate you for checking out this post and remember, we will see you on the other side.
Rodrick Goss (CEO)
Third Eye Traders