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Russell2000

Everything Bubble could be the case..!How possible is another Bullish rally??? To answer this question let's review some important fundamentals. In the next few paragraphs, I will use a great article about Bubble by Investopedia and provide a real-life example and let you judge at the end. Since everyone could have misconceptions about certain issues, please feel free to write your contradicting views and help me learn from your ideas. What Is a Bubble? A basic characteristic of financial bubbles is the suspension of disbelief by most participants when the speculative price surge is occurring. ( My view: Almost everyone thinks there will be another Bullish rally soon. Check box number 1: filled) Bubble, in an economic context, generally refers to a situation where the price for something—an individual stock, a financial asset, or even an entire sector, market, or asset class—exceeds its fundamental value by a large margin. Financial bubbles, aka asset bubbles or economic bubbles, fit into four basic categories: stock market bubbles market bubbles credit bubbles commodity bubbles Let's evaluate them one by one! A: Stock market Bubble: I would to like use Buffet Indicator, The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. The Buffett Indicator was at elevated levels before the dotcom crash of 2000 to 2002, and before the financial crisis of 2008, but at respective values of 137% and 105%, lower than today's reading of 158%. (check box 2 filled) Sector Bubble: Some sectors like EV makers, green energy stocks, AI, Aerospace, and cryptocurrency-related stocks have been in a deflationary state since 3 months ago. (check box 3 filled) B: Market Bubble: Cryptocurrency market : After a +2300% gain in less than 14 months just lost 50% of its market cap in less than 2 weeks! (check box 4 filled) C: Credit Bubble: Margin debt stands at $847 billion highest number in the last 10 years..!(check box 5 filled) US Published National Debt:+ 28 Trillion (+133 Trillion is an alternative reality which means 855k/Taxpayer) (check box 6 filled) D: Commodity Bubble: Agricultural futures: everything is up between 10-303% in the past year. (check box 7 filled) Energy futures: everything is up between 53-111% in the past year. (check box 8 filled) Metals futures: everything is up between 9-92% in the past year. (check box 9 filled) The five steps in the lifecycle of a bubble: 1- Displacement 2- Boom (March 2020- February 2021) 3- Euphoria (February-April 2021) 4- Profit-taking (April- May 2021) 76% of stocks trading below their relative volume which means no new money coming to the market. (check box 10 filled) 5- Panic (Not started yet) Another concerning factor is the sharp drop that happened after earnings in most stocks! No need to say Gold started a new rally and seems it has no intention to correct in the past 2 months. Most importantly, I believe I have discovered a mathematical way to calculate the last stage of any bubble with acceptable accuracy..! Those who follow my work know it is not a baseless claim. I will provide some example: 1- EV makers Bubble: NIO was 57 2- Bitcoin: was 64-62 Based on my calculation: It is highly likely that we experience another round of sell-off by the next 4 weeks or sooner! I provide atleast 10 reasons for my bearish case, I would like to know what are your reasons for another Bullish rally? Cryptocurrency Market: Margin Statistic: U.S. Published National Debt: www.truthinaccounting.org Bubble: www.investopedia.com
TVC:SPX
by Moshkelgosha
12
SP500 - Can The Bull Market Really Continue?Idea for SPX: - Stock market is at a 100 year old resistance. - Can it really continue its parabolic bull run? - Here is an interesting fractal of the 20s to 50s, which closely matches with the current market conditions from the late 90s. - Right as the market hit the resistance, it did see a minor pullback and slowed for a year, but then continued its way up glued to the trendline for 10 years afterwards. Past performance does not guarantee future success, but based on this fractal, it is definitely not out of the question. Pullbacks are normal, so it is inevitable that we will have one, but this time, will it turn into more than just a minor pullback? That's a good question. GLHF - DPT
TVC:SPX
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
Russell 2000 - Please Stop Buying ItPick any path you want, none look appealing from a bull's perspective. I created this chart today because I found incomprehensible that the Russell tape kept getting bought aggressively into today's close. Forget about the fact that this index has tested the lows of this triangular range (black date range above) several times, but what is more troubling is that these are small-cap companies trading at what used to be Blue Chip prices, like a year ago. Small caps should be respected for their bearishness; they are the first to get punched when the indices agree downward and they are also the hardest to get punched. This makes sense because smaller companies are less likely to maintain operations during times of economic hardship due to a number of logical cash-flow-related items. Thus, while it hasn't been made abundantly clear by the media or US politicians yet (Europe is less delusional) that the economy is doing not-so-great, I find it ridiculous that the only index to get aggresively bought during this intensely bearish afternoon session was the Russell 2k. This is a testament to how little people fear markets these days, or rather, it is that they have only experienced this 2020 rally and do not care/were not alive during the year 2008. The type of fear that has been omnipresent since January 2021 is that of FOMO. Typically, when people are fearful of transient, bearish price action, the natural reaction is to panic-sell. Well, it's now clear that we have entered a new age where it is human nature to panic buy the riskiest assets when markets show bearishness. I only kid, of course - there is no actual no new age of anything. In fact, I'd imagine that it'll only take the first near-term apolcalyptic selloff to reprogram the market masses. All I ask is that you not be long the Russell at times where it makes more sense to be long just about anything unrelated to stocks. -Apigolyptic Selloff 2k21 AMEX:IWM RUSSELL:RUT GLOBALPRIME:US2000 TSE:SMALL500 BMFBOVESPA:SMLL SPCFD:SPX NASDAQ:IXIC DJCFD:DJI CURRENCYCOM:US500 CURRENCYCOM:US100 CURRENCYCOM:US30 CBOE:RVX
FOREXCOM:US2000Short
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
9
Market Crash road mapIf you are shorting the market which sounds wise at this time, be careful of corrections. When you are in the Bearish market, any upward moves could be a correction and could last for weeks! 2008 Market Crash Example: 2000 Market Crash Example: The same rule applies to Russell 200, S&P 500, and Dow Jones, But Tech stocks, small caps, companies without revenue, and profitability are the most vulnerable and may lose 90% of their market cap! like most EV makers with a 50-70% decrease in their market cap so far! sit on cash and having some leveraged Inverse ETF could be a good plan..!
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Moshkelgosha
9
My favorite color is RED..!I prepared all my followers for this and convinced them to sit on Cash, Buy inverse ETFs, and Short The market..! My followers are the happiest traders today. and I am happy to see their smiles on the worst days of the market..! Those who have early access to my trading ideas have the chance to perform better. Don't you believe it? Check my recently private post: I have lots of technical and fundamental reasons that this correction will be different and is going to be more than 10%, you will see the technical reasons in my charts. Let’s review the fundamentals: 1- The most important factor is limiting margin for hedge funds by banks, after Archegos capital management phenomenon..! 2- The Buffett Indicator was at elevated levels before the dotcom crash of 2000 to 2002, and before the financial crisis of 2008, but at respective values of 137% and 105%, lower than today's reading of 157%.(Stansberry research) 3- Americans are now holding more money in stocks than ever before... and that includes the peak of the dot-com bubble. The data is from JPMorgan Chase and the Federal Reserve. It includes any stock that folks may hold in 401(k) accounts as well. Right now, 41% of our financial assets are allocated to stocks. Again, that's higher than the dot-com peak of 37%. 4- Constant money out flux since early 2021 which decreases the trading value in more than 95% of stocks! 5-Margin debt stands at $822 billion – an increase of more than 25% since September of last year.(Stansberry research) Conclusion: Any factor that limits new money influx will have negative effects on markets, and Bubbles always burst when they have their biggest size! To protect your capital: *Use tight stop loss even for your long-term investments. ** Hedge your positions using inverse ETFs like SQQQ, SPXU,… *** Always accept the loss when it is small, if it becomes bigger it will become harder to accept! Moshkelgosha If you are interested to have early access to my trading ideas, check the signature box below the post for more information.
TVC:RUTShort
by Moshkelgosha
1
What's the Russell 2000 telling us ? Hi there. Beginning trader and technical analyst who received my education from TRi school of trader development. *My charts are not financial and/or trade advice and are posted for entertainment purposes. Another day with head buried in charts. If there are any small cap, bottom hunters like me who have been in there hunting things that seem like they aren't going to stop going down or have finally found a bottom, then you may have been wondering when things might turn, and we begin seeing our portfolios going back up, and we can more aggressively hunt favorable long entries that show indication of stabilization and turning to add to our position. Well if this chart is any indication I'm starting to think the time may be soon. I'm starting to see some double bottoms coming in on price and indicators, granted it is as the top of price action. It does look like price action has broken out of a potential Head and Shoulder Pattern and will be invalidated at the areas noted in chart. Some fundamental considerations: Inflation fears particularly impact small caps and their cost in production. Possibly, there is a momentary pause on new money coming in from recent retail investors who have entered small cap positions in the past on the hype and Robinhood usability. Perhaps their retail money has been temporarily redirected to a more enthusiastic and euphoric crypto market? It will be interesting to keep an eye on the Russell to see if any sharp down turns-or more euphoria- in that space impact the 2000's trend. Appreciate sharing of different perspectives on my analysis or sharing of your own. Thanks for stopping by. Happy hunting. RUSSELL:RUT
TVC:RUT
by Cryptough
3
DJIA/Gold Ratio & 30-year Bonds/Russell2000 in Phase Transition!The Dow Jones (IA) / Gold Ratio and the U.S. 30-year Treasury Bonds / Russell2000 Index Ratio are coinciding at key levels. Both ratios are at historic turning points, foreshadowing their respective Phase Transitions! (and as such, indicating highly volatile, multi-standard deviation moves in the global equity indexes.) The title chart is an extended (120 years) view of the ongoing DJIA / Gold analysis, this time applying the same metric as used in the earlier US 30-year Treasuries / Russell2000 Ratio analysis; ... For easy comparisons. U.S. Market Capitalization / U.S. GDP now having exceeded 2.75 while the Historic Norm (not the low) remains 0.78 - i.e. ~70% below current levels(!!) - , it is rather self-evident that these phase transitions are likely to result in major (equity) market declines, and on a global scale. U.S. Margin Debt / U.S. GDP has also surpassed all previous, historic records (by a very wide margin!), not only in nominal measures but also in relative terms! I.e. Once this trap door opens (forced liquidations??... The most likely, least resistance path, catalyst) an initial 20%-25% decline in the SP500 would be well within the minimum expected.
TVC:DJI
by Nemo_Confidat
22
SPX & Russel 2000 since 2003 "Bands of brothers ride together"Getting divergence between these 2 indexes and crossing below zero line or just above the zero line we get a heads up kind of signals for higher volatility in SPX. Median of 44 days and Average of 45 days to pullbacks. Median & Average pullback of 9.9 % & 10 %. DATA: - 29 day to 11% pullback - 71 days to 4% pullback -58 days to 10% pullback -39 days to 15% pullback - 3 day to 5% pullback -Mid of 4% pullback -1 day to 3% pullback - 92 days to 12% pullback - Double: 44 & 6 days to 20% correction -62 days to 12% pullback -90 days to 8 % pullback. -------------------------- 0.01 readings -Zero Days to 10% pullback -69 days to 6 % pullback -3 days for a 3% pullback -49 days for a 6 % pullback
TVC:SPX
by samitrading
4
CAUTION It's pretty common for BTC to have 20-30% corrections in a bull market and has been doing phenomenal with coinciding with previous run-ups. I believe this is the 4th or 5th correction to this magnitude. Things look pretty swell from where we came from this year and last and hope it can continue. We just had a crossing on the weekly MACD and things are looking ripe for maybe another push higher. RSI on the monthly cart is also declining from overbought territory. There was a similar run up and fall in price action and when BTC futures started trading on CME compared to the COIN listing recently. Regardless if you are HODLING forever or just trying to make quick movements in the price action of shitcoins it looks like we are taking a breather and could be something other than a correction. I'm remaining on the cautious side with everything else thats developing across world markets and in the US. That's all folks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by moonman777
2