$IWM Outlook 05/30 - 06/02 @capgainsgroupAs the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ rally into the green for the year, the Russell 2000 (aka the small cap index) has lagged behind and is barely green at +1.03% YTD for 2023. One of the reasons why this index hasn’t been doing well can be attributed to the index’s 15.18% allocation in the Finance Sector. Failing regional banks such as Silicon Valley Bank ( NASDAQ:SIVB ) and Signature Bank ( OTC:SBNY ) haven’t helped the index much.
Investors who would like to play the Russell 2000 should pay attention to the 5 major sectors that makes up 73.23% of AMEX:IWM : Health Care (17.62%), Industrials (16.66%), Financials (15.18%), Information Technology (12.74%), and Consumer Discretionary (11.03%).
Technical Analysis:
AMEX:IWM recently formed a Death Cross (50 SMA x 200 SMA) on the daily chart in mid April. Although not very clean, there is a support uptrend line dating back to October 2022. Also, it seems like we have a head and shoulders pattern, using the Daily 170.30 level as the neckline.
Bulls will want price to reclaim the weekly 178.90 level as a support.
I lean bearish on this index. If AMEX:IWM can’t reclaim the two daily gaps above, at 176.74 - 177.42 and 180.53 - 181.28, I expect it to come down and test the yellow uptrend line and potentially break it to the downside in the coming weeks.
Upside Targets: 176.74 → 177.42 → 180.71 → 181.28 → 183.76 Extended: 186.91
Downside Targets: 174.09 → 172.33 → 171.41 → 170.30 → 169.32 Extended: 166.81
Russell2000
Why are investors turning their attention to mid-cap stocks?This will be the 2 questions we will be discussing today
1. So, what is happening on this divergence and its implication?
2. And who is leading who?
a. Large cap leading the mid-to-small cap market? Or
b. The mid-to-small cap leading the large cap market?
The answer: The mid-to-small cap is leading the large cap market and why is it so?
If recession hits, hypothetically mid-to-small cap stocks employing the majority of the work force or employees in United States will be the most affected, this huge workforce is also considered as the mass consumer.
The large cap stocks, their business depends on the mass consumer. If the mass consumers start to tighten their belts, the large cap stocks revenue will also be affected subsequently.
Some reference for traders:
E-mini S&P MidCap 400 & Option:
Outright:
0.10 index points = $10.00
Micro E-mini S&P MidCap 400:
CME ClearPort:
0.05 index points = $0.50
E-mini Russell 2000 & Option:
Outright:
0.10 index points = $5.00
Micro E-mini Russell 200
Outright:
0.10 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
RTY Short. We got a nice rejection of the Daily sell zone. Looking for continuation to 1745 and then ultimately 1700.
Entry Price - 1774
Stop loss - 1800 (I would like to see a strong close above 1800 level.
First Target - 1745
Final Target - 1700
Please share your views. Thank you
Russell & SPX breakoutRussell & SPX are valued against gold on this graph. It is the first spread graph analysis that uses the Russell index . I used it to represent mid-sized firms, which are arguably a better representation of the overall health of U.S economy (particularly banking stability); and SPX . Considering the ongoing USD turbulence, Gold historically and intuitively appears to be the most suitable asset to measure against for analyses.
The graph shows what the market is expecting from next week (full of crucial macro readings), and it doesn’t look good.
Feel free to comment!
Why Russell Index the most Reflective for Bank Run Crisis?Russell represents the true economy of United States.
There are 2,000 medium size companies with each value between $300m to $2b. The index includes a diverse range of companies from various sectors, including financials, healthcare, consumer goods, industrials, and technology. In my opinion Russell represents the true economy of united states.
If the bank run crisis deepens, it is possible that 2,000 companies will not hold up well. The reasons for this are stated in the video. This could affect the other major indices, with the Russell 2000 potentially leading the pack. The Russell 2000 is considered more reflective of the US economy compared to the other major indices with big names like Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft.
E-mini Russell 2000 Index Futures & Option
Outright:
0.10 index points = $5.00
Micro E-mini Russell 2000 Index Futures
Outright:
0.10 index points = $0.50
Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures & Option
Outright:
0.25 index points = $1.25
Micro E-mini Nasdaq Index Futures & Option
Outright:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Micro E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Futures
Outright:
1.0 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Bring Back the Vol, 3 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Sharp drop in equities accompanied by a spike in the VIX. It seems the market didn't like the taste of abnormal low vol. It wanted things to get back to "normal". As a Trader, "normal" is good although sometimes we end up on the wrong side like today. Bring back the Volatility.
➤ The Strategy did as it should by halving the position size yesterday in anticipation that some level of downside may occur. I cut my long position further today upon another exit signal. My secondary strategy signaled a short trade. Overall I have a small long position going into US Interest Rate Decision/FOMC day.
➤ Before you ask, I have no view on the outcome of the interest rate decision and what may or may not happen. I don't spend much time on those fundamental aspects of the market. There are plenty of talking heads that will offer their opinion but only listen to those people who actually have a wager on the outcome. I wouldn't trust anyone who doesn't have skin in the game.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Looking to recoup some losses
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
Reversal Time? 2 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ An attempt to break above the Feb high fell flat. Literally. Equities ended where it started, slighty down from Friday close. It isn't a good look.
➤ Over the last few days, there has been a deceleration in the up move evidenced by the smaller candle sizes or price bars. It's like a car decelerating towards a known barrier ahead. It isn't confident that it can crash through the barrier or maybe it doesn't want to at all.
➤ I'm not here to question the car or in our case the market why or why not. I am here to best respond to what I can see from a short-term technical trading perspective. I therefore have cut my long position back to a moderate size. The chances for a price reversal is much higher and managing that risk is essential. There is still enough risk on the table to make good profits if the car decides to crash through but the car may indeed decide to go in reverse.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Perhaps this prey is too big to take down.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
So now back down to the 200 day?Traders,
We have now touched the underside of our macro uptrend (3) three times and the bulls have been unable to break to the topside again. Is is time for them to sit the bench for a few weeks, get their wind back, and let the bears take us back down to retest that 200 day one more time? It might be.
Stew
Head and Shoulders Topping Formation on the Russell2000The recent failure of First Republic Bank highlights the problems facing the US banking system. These problems include the continued increase of delinquency rates on Credit cards, Commercial Real Estate & Automobiles, as well as a decrease of commercial bank deposits and M2 money supply (-4.2% YoY). These problems, among others, are causing banking institutions to rein in their lending to build reserves and take on debt from the FED & FHLBs to meet deposit withdrawals. This reduces the profitability of banks and restricts credit into the economy, which reduces economic activity as a whole. The economy had already begun slowing heavily before the credit crunch began in March 2023, but the current business cycle downturn, combined with 3 large regional bank failures and rising continuing jobless claims, portend a severe & lengthy economic contraction. The Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators registered a -7.2% YoY Contraction recently. Since 1968, Any Conference Board LEI contraction of more than -2% YoY has never yielded a false positive in regards to a coming recession.
Over 40% of Russell2000 companies are unprofitable and over 24% of S&P500 companies are zombie companies. Markets are still very overvalued within the context of a 5% Fed funds rate, contracting earnings, a credit crunch, and ongoing quantitative tightening by the FED. The markets have been seeing less buying volumes as well as carving out a head and shoulders top on the Russell2000. Other problems facing the banks include the popping auto & commercial real estate debt bubbles, as well as increasing large corporate bankruptcies (The most since 2010 thus far this year). The IPO market is the weakest it has been since 2009 (by total proceeds), which is also hurting Investment banking profits. I see the potential for 5%-10% possible upside and 35%-50% downside for the Russell2000 & S&P500 over the next 9 -18 months.
Thank you for reading,
Alexander C. Lambert
Banish the Bears 4ever (and a summary of other asset classes)🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
1 May 2023
➤ Bullish sentiment drove prices higher once more on the last day of April trade. The momentum is building to take out the Feb high at 418.31 on the SPY. This level is important if looking at the monthly chart. A monthly close above this level will in my opinion bring about the beginnings of a longer term bull market. Will this occur in May?
➤ In the very short-term I am positioned long with maximum position size. Hopefully the bullish momentum will continue and kick start the new month on the right foot.
➤ Let's have a quick overview of other assets:
⦿ USD (daily): Winding sideways. I expect further weakening, 1.13 being the target (EURUSD).
⦿ TLT (weekly): Still range bound. I favour the long-term downtrend meaning higher interest rates. Interest rate decision this week may see prices breakout up. Downtrend remains in place unless price moves above 114. At that level, we indeed may see a change in trend.
⦿ GOLD (daily): Retracing, looks poised to take out the all time high at 2070
⦿ NATGAS (weekly): Still unable to break above the 2.30 long term resistance zone. It doesn't look strong enough to breach the resistance. Further downside expected.
⦿ OIL (3-day): Bullish move may have peaked. If true, I expect a re-test of the low at a minimum at HKEX:64 (WTI). $64/65 is a multi-year support level. A break below would see much lower prices.
⦿ BTC (weekly): Testing, probing the long-term resistance level at HKEX:30 ,000/31,000. Price can drop further (pick your level) but the new bull trend is firmly in place.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 The Hunt is on.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
Banish the Bears, 28 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ An aggressive pump higher today in equities, undoing all the Bear's work over the previous days. The Bears are banished...or are they?
➤ It does look like one-way traffic at the moment. The Bulls have control. The only issue I have so far is their inability to close a month beyond the Feb 2023 high. This monthly high close (and there's just one trading day left this month) would in my opinion seal the deal for the long-term Bullish scenario.
➤ If this doesn't happen in April we will have to wait for May...but May is known as the month of "sell and go away". If Bears can hold out for another month, the scales may tip in their favour.
➤ I took profit on my long positions. Unfortunately, my mistake as detailed yesterday diminished what would have been a good pay-day. I hold a small long position.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 The Hunt was part failure part success. I'm still very hungry. I'm sure my Cubs are too.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
I Made A Boo Boo, 27 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ At an index level, equities couldn't hang on to early gains and retreated for another day. The price actually closed a minor gap from the previous uptrend as shown by the blue arrows. Note that there is a minor gap higher and a large gap lower from current levels in the SPY. The question is which one will get filled first? Comment below on what you think.
➤ This daily post is generally used to provide observations about the market and price action in pariticular but it also serves as a trading journal for myself. Today marks the first Trading Mistake I've made this year.
➤ I wrongly sized the current trade - double the size it should have been. That is why I cut my positions in half when this was realised. Of course, the Trading Gods have a habit of punishing mistakes to its maximum effect by taking that partial loss at the lows of the day! Unfortunately, I'm not alone with Copiers suffering the same fate. Sorry.
➤ Trading mistakes are part of the game. I accept that. The real issue here is that I didn't recognise the error straight away. I have now put in place a procedure to mitigate this from occurring again.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 The consolation is that it was a surface scratch and not a deep wound.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
Pretty Ugly, 26 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ From sitting pretty to pretty ugly. Today's price action has upended the bullish thesis that I was building. However, one ugly day doesn't mean things will now completely reverse. We need two days...OK, I'm just kidding. But on a serious note, the balance of power between the Bulls and Bears have seriously swung towards the Bears.
➤ In after-hours, GOOGL and MSFT stock are being heavily supported post earnings release. Let's see if this can hold up on Wednesday in particular at a broader market/index level. Note that AMZN and META also release earnings this week Wed/Thu (but after market close).
➤ Clearly, the Regional Bank crisis is on-going with FRC in the spotlight. This may re-spark conditions that was experienced during the SVB phase of the crisis.
➤ I got a very short-term buy signal and that was executed dutifully. I am now moderately long and looking for a quick bounce.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Pounced. A successful or failed hunt? We will know soon.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
Sitting Pretty, 25 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities is proof that the world is flat. Flat and dull. I'm kidding, that's just Singapore. Although just after US market close I felt a light shake of the building evidenced by the swaying window blinds. I believe that was the tremor caused by a large earthquake off Indonesia. That was pretty much all the "excitement" for the day.
➤ I'm of the strong opinion that this flat and dull inactivity is a show that the Bulls are sitting pretty awaitng the next leg higher. Why are they taking a time-out? Probably to suck in as many shorts as possible to load up on their positions.
➤ I currently hold a small long position.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Ready to pounce.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
The Chop, 24 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities finished flat to down once more. Recent movement has been very low volatility as reflected by the VIX. I still favour further upside as price is well supported at these levels.
➤ That being said, my primary trading strategy did signal an exit and that was executed at end of Friday trade. An exit doesn't mean I am expecting to reverse and go Short. It just means the current trade has run its course. I still hold a long position with 20% of capital due to my secondary trading strategy.
➤ Let's have a quick overview of other assets:
⦿ USD (daily): Similar to the equity market, experiencing a small retracement. I expect further weakening, 1.13 being the target (EURUSD).
⦿ TLT (weekly): Still range bound. I favour the long-term downtrend meaning higher interest rates.
⦿ GOLD (daily): Also retracing but I expect all time highs.
⦿ NATGAS (weekly): Bounced higher to the 2.30 long term resistance zone. It doesn't look strong enough to breach the resistance. Further downside expected.
⦿ OIL (3-day): Bullish move may have peaked. If true, I expect a re-test of the low at a minimum at HKEX:64 (WTI)
⦿ BTC (weekly): As expected, we saw some profit taking. Price can drop further (pick your level) but the new bull trend is firmly in place.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Awaiting the next Primary trade signal...
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
Just Another, 21 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities lost ground after a weak open followed by an attempt to make up ground only to lose it all and more prior to a small bounce off the low at close. Overall, it was just another meaningless day.
➤ Meaningless in the context that the price action has not broken any structures that warrants attention e.g a breakout out of a range. Right now, this small drop from the 18th April high is just another retracement in the uptrend and does not look to have any sinister intent. The favoured conclusion is for price to rise further.
➤ My Secondary Trading Strategy gave another buy signal to build on that conclusion. We are now at maximum position sizing (20% of capital). It is a small allocation in the overall scheme of things but it is only intended to add a marginal return to compliment my Primary Strategy.
➤ My overall long exposure is now moderate.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 As yet there's no evidence that the Bulls are done.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
I Blinked First, 20 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Kind of like opposite day with today's price action acting in reverse of Tuesday. Again, tight ranging and finishing flat. Yesterday I posed the question: Who Blinks First? Alluding to the idea that there is a regime shift incoming that will determine a period of Bullish prosperity or a brutal Bearish collapse.
➤ Whilst it is way too early to come to a conclusion, I must admit I have blinked first in the favour of the Bulls by adding a small long position using the $SPY. Let me explain why...
➤ Recall that I posted a recent note introducing a secondary Trading strategy to compliment my primary source of return. The long SPY position is its debut. One of the key reasons for implementing the secondary strategy is that on average it has a much longer holding period. This is especially true in the case of a long/buy position.
➤ An achilles heal of my primary strategy is that it is very sensitive to price movement. Trends can be bumpy along the way meaning that it sometimes does not allow me to ride the full extent of a huge trend (up or down). My secondary strategy does a better job at that.
➤ With that in mind, today's buy reflects a potential extension of the current up trend for a while longer. If true, that would give the Bulls the opportunity to close April beyond the Feb 2023 high. In my past notes, I have discussed the importance of such a monthly close and how that favours a return of a long-term Bullish market environment.
➤ Clearly, my buy signal could be wrong and exited soon. However, that is the state of play as I see it and the month is nearing drawing to a rapid close.
➤ Despite the new buy, my overall long exposure is still small.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Trust your signals, don't second guess.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
Who Blinks First? 19 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities ended slightly higher at the lower end of today's trading range. It was another one of those days that meant little by itself yet a story is unfolding within the context of a string of these days.
➤ When prices leapt higher from the March low, we saw the aggressive acceleration with large-sized daily moves and price gaps from day to day. A sign of excitement and enthusiasm. In recent days, we see the complete contrast with hesitative small daily moves creeping higher each day.
➤ With my best "tape" reading glasses on, I still cannot decipher which binary outcome it will be: Re-acceleration upwards explained by an upward accumulation phase or a Bearish trend reversal explained by the tiring progress into key resistance levels. Only one outcome can be true.
➤ I remain long with a small position.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Who will blink first?
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
Price Projections, 18 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities finished in a robust manner at the highs although it was a low volatility day. It looks like the price is digesting the break out of the short-term consolidation prior to jumping higher. The question is how much higher?
➤ I studied the Wyckoff Method some years ago under the teachings of well-known proponents Roman Bogomazov and Bruce Fraser at Wyckoff Analytics. Although I only apply some minor elements of Wyckoff philosophy in my trading strategy, it was a transformative educational experience that opened my mind to the inner workings of the market.
➤ The reason why I bring up Wyckoff is that the methodology does incorporate a price projection element using the "point & figure" chart. This chart is "old school" in that is was predominantly used by Traders in the physical trading pits at exchanges. It simplifies a messy chart by displaying price action in terms of movement rather by chronological time.
➤ So let's play around with the price projection. I used the Dec 2022 consolidation to calibrate the inputs and it gave me a price of 411.5 for the SPY. This is the projection from the Mar 2023 low. Obviously we have already met that target. In the Dec example, the price did spike a few points higher than the projection prior to actual price reversal in Feb 2023. We should apply the same leeway. Coincidentally that would allow the price to peak around 415-418 near the Feb 2023 high - an obvious point for a reversal.
➤ I remain long with a small position.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Let's see if the price is about to peak as suggested.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
The VIX Collapse, 17 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ On Friday the S&P500 held above short-term support on top of the trading range although it did give up earlier gains. That is not unsurprising as I did expect the support to be tested. The major feature was the collapse of the VIX to relatively low levels. My "A Regime Shift" post (linked) delves into what this may mean.
➤ A quick round up of other markets is warranted as we are sitting at interesting levels in many instances in their respective timeframes:
⦿ USD (daily): New low set, testing the breakdown. A successful test should see further weakening
⦿ TLT (weekly): Range bound. The bounce off the low looks corrective, the long-term downtrend is favoured
⦿ GOLD (daily): Choppy 2 steps up 1 step down but the uptrend is firmly entranched. I expect all time highs.
⦿ NATGAS (weekly): Testing resistance level. Unsuccessful so far. I expect further weakness if the test fails
⦿ OIL (3-day): Another week of gains would strengthen the bullish case with a Change of Behaviour, the first step for a true trend change
⦿ BTC (weekly): Testing long-term resistance. We may see some profit taking but the new bull trend is firmly in place.
➤ I have reduced my long equity positioning to minimum sizing to reflect a lower conviction on the short-term price movement.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Big flood of earnings should provide insight into further market direction.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
The Break Through, 14 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Yesterday I said narrow price ranges don't last long. It lasted a day more than I had hoped for but today we saw the break through. S&P500 broke above the short-term trading range. Not only that, it also broke an assortment of resistance levels.
➤ Before we get carried away, we should note that there is usually a test of the support level (previously resistance levels). The test may fail and price reverses back into the range. When that happens, it is likely the price will keep moving down to at least the bottom of that range.
➤ 418.31 on the SPY is the upside level that I am looking at. A break through that level would be very meaningful indeed. Especially if price can hold above it at month end. Why at month end? In my view, a monthly close above that high will change my overall long-term Bearish stance to Bullish.
➤ I hold a moderate long position.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Look up. Short-term equity trend has been upgraded.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
Treading Water, 13 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities failed to take advantage of the early bullish mood. Prices ended weakly for a solid down day.
➤ Yesterday I talked about the current state of the market and it being in a short-term consolidation phase. This is a situation where prices move up and down within a range treading water prior to breaking out higher or lower. Allowing for a new trend to emerge. Typically, the longer the consolidation phase the longer the subsequent trending phase. It's like a coiled spring releasing all its pent up energy.
➤ Today we saw the price fail to break above and continue to tread water. It is a delicate balance because the consolidation has a narrow range (high to low). Narrow ranges don't usually last very long.
➤ I've cut half of my long position in response to the further coiling of price. Short-term direction bias gets more cloudy the longer this goes on.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Tread lightly.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN