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Russell2000

The 400, 30 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities shot up higher with you guessed it...Nasdaq leading the way. If investors did not have a large tech allocation, they have been left way way behind at least so far this year. ➤ S&P500 is up 5% YTD but is now back trafficking at the 400 level. This has been the recent "zero" line from where prices oscillate up and down 5% on either side. With VIX now collapsing to low levels, the up move since the 14th March low may be limited. This is especially true as we are in a range-bound market regime. ➤ Given the above, I took off half of my long position leaving a moderate sized exposure. In this environment, whenever price hits resistance or support, there is a chance the price can reverse rather aggressively. ➤ Note the sizable price gap due to today's jump at the open in the SPY. In recent times, all these gaps have been filled either immediately or shortly in the future. I don't see this gap being any different. ➤ Conclusion: A decent profit so far making up for lost time due to the sporadic trading action this month. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
The Flipper, 29 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Another low volatility day. Equity prices recovered to finish where it started the day. For me it meant flipping my short position to being long/buy. ➤ "The Flipper" in Cricket is a bowling action made famous by the legend leg spinner Shane Warne...may he rest in peace. It's a normal looking spinning delivery but actually just skids on straight with extra pace. It often leads to the Batters' demise as he/she is completely fooled. ➤ In a way, the recent price action in equities is like that. With all the fearmongering, banking crisis, etc etc...the market has hardly budged. What was lost was recovered. VIX also didn't shoot up aggressively and has completely collapsed once again. ➤ Will it continue? Is the market too complacent? You should know my answer to that...I really don't care all that much although it is interesting listening to all the arguments. ➤ I'm just trading the price action as I see it. If I'm right or wrong, make or lose money it certainly isn't because I thought about this macro factor or that. That's just not my skillset. ➤ Conclusion: A bit peeved at not being to realise a decent profit on the short...let's see what a maximum-sized long play will bring. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
A Short Stay, 28 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ A low volatility start to the week. NASDAQ underperformed while Russell 2000 small cap caught a bid. Price could not push through the short-term resistance level above 400 on the SPY. VIX keeps moving lower. ➤ I'm finally back in the action with a moderate short position. It's going to be a short stay, 1 or 2 days perhaps. It was kind of an unfortunate start. Equity prices burst higher in the few seconds into the close just after the opening of my position. A little bit annoyed with that. ➤ Conclusion: Remember that we are in choppy conditions so I'm not expecting any major directional moves as yet. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Chop Chop, 25 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The week ended positively for equities with brisk late buying on Friday trade. The exact opposite of the late strong sell-off on Wednesday just on a smaller scale. That sell-off remains the dominant feature. ➤ With the exception of Tech and perhaps day trading, it was pretty choppy everywhere else for generating returns. Somewhat like being swirled around in the washing machine not knowing where we will end up. At this juncture, one could come to the conclusion that despite all the hoo-ha about impending disaster it was just pure fear mongering built up with social media...at least in the very short term. ➤ I'm not too upset to have been left out of the action this week. I think any trade would have been chopped up and spat out. I'm looking forward to next week as the price action is evolving into a structure that is recognisable. ➤ Conclusion: Let's hope we don't get the same choppy conditions next week. Have a great weekend! EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
I'm No Day Trader, 24 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I'm not a day trader but it's a perfect market environment to be one. Volatility is just at the right level where prices swing/trend but are constrained in a range. Today was a perfect example. ➤ Equity prices swung up and down and finished slightly positive. Once again NASDAQ outperformed and the regional bank heavy Russell 2000 small cap stocks lagged. There's also lots of money to be made by astute sector selection just like last year. Money can still be made by a long-only investor in a Bear market! ➤ Today's price action keeps the Bears in play. An attempt to reverse yesterday's plunge failed albeit no further ground was lost. This was helped by the 200 day moving average acting as a wall of resistance. The VIX acted a bit better to correspond with that bearish tone but still looks unconvincing. ➤ Conclusion: We are getting closer to a suitable trade set-up. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
2
The Best Dentist, 23 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The Market is indeed the BEST Dentist. Rarely does it allow a gap to remain. The price gap in the SPY from Tuesday trade was immediately filled. Yesterday, I contemplated about the manner in that it was to be filled. The Market decided on the second option - a spike higher before moving lower. ➤ Equity markets sold-off aggressively at the end of the trading session. Small cap was battered once more losing almost double that of the major indices. ➤ Inspite of the selling, the VIX remained unperturbed. I would be sceptical of this bearishness if there was to be no follow-through selling and a move higher in the VIX. As you know, I'm keen to see follow-through action as a means of confirming a directional move. ➤ I was hoping for a bullish or small bearish day. That would have neatly set-up a potential short trade. Today's action stole a lot of that potential. That means I will need to wait patiently and see how price action evolves. ➤ Conclusion: Trading action has been a start and stop affair similar to Feb. Hopefully we will get into the action towards the end of the month! EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Watch the Gap, 22 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Another positive day in equity markets and I'm sensing some kind of pattern. Small cap caught up a bit with the main indices. ➤ Today (Wednesday) is the main event. It's the US Fed interest rate decision day. There's no doubt everyone has an eye or ear on the announcement. ➤ Before you ask, I have no clue on the outcome per se and I don't particularly care. I don't have skin in the game so I'm not gonna be losing any sleep over it. BUT I'm of course interested in the price action post data release. I'm hoping the price action isn't too messy and ruin a good potential trade set-up. ➤ In terms of likely movement, there is an open price gap in the SPY due to Tuesday trade. Price can easily close that gap. The sequence of events would be interesting. Will the gap be closed immediately with a downward spike or will it be closed after a failure of an initial bullish phase? I again have no idea. ➤ Conclusion: Price action so far points to a bullish bias. We saw a similar set-up in Sept 2022. That time, price reversed immediately. Take care. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - DOWN ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
None The Wiser, 21 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Positive day in equity markets and for once Nasdaq lagged in the advance against other major indices. ➤ There's lots of conjecture out there about the outperformance of the Nasdaq and for that matter Bitcoin over recent days during banking crisis. In my opinion, this was all directly related to the massive drop in yields in the Bond market. Lower rates generally benefits tech valuations (through their ability to borrow cheaply i.e a lower cost cost of capital). This risk-on mode also benefits Bitcoin. The high correlation between Tech and Nasdaq still hold. ➤ There is the argument that Bitcoin is now showing signs of "de-coupling" due it's "safe haven" status and being the anti-thesis of a de-basing fiat system. It may be true on the margin but in my view there is insufficient evidence. ➤ In terms of the overall price action today in equities, I am none the wiser to what happens next. Once again, the price was engulfed within the large Bullish bar on Thursday last week. VIX dropped marginally too but it is still elevated. Overall, it provides a slight bias towards the Bulls. ➤ Conclusion: I'm looking forward to less ambiguous price action. This may occur post Wednesday's Fed interest rate decision. NOTES: 200-day Moving average back into the mix.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
No one is safe when the floor falls out!UBS buys Credit Suisse, central banks liquidity provision, and a massive repricing in rates marked a significantly volatile week. As the storm of bank contagion continues to brew, one index in particular is trading unlike the others! We’re talking about the Nasdaq here. Trading higher while its peer indexes get beaten down in a somewhat unusual fashion. Another way to look at it, since this February, S&P500, Dow Jones & Russell 2000 is down 5%, 7% & 13% respectively, while the Nasdaq is pretty much flat. In one of our previous posts, we highlight how the ratio of Nasdaq/S&P500 topped higher than the 2000s Dot-com bubble. While the ratio traded lower after we covered it, this recent move basically put the ratio back to the level when we first highlighted it. The ratio also traded cleanly off the .236 Fibonacci line and the trend support. With the ratio now at the previous resistance level, and extended from the trend line, this could present another opportunity to consider a short. Interestingly if we use a Logarithm y-axis, the upward trend of the ratio becomes clearer. Here, we see all 3 ratios at critical resistance levels and away from the long-term trend. While it’s a bit challenging to pinpoint the exact reason, we think the chorus of lower target rates and more cuts priced in has propelled the possibly interest rate-sensitive benchmark higher. But, when the floor falls out, it doesn’t matter if you can jump the highest! We think the current springboard for the Nasdaq Index can only take it so far and here’s why: If a true contagion event does play out, then the sell-off is likely not going to discriminate. And looking at the 2000s period, Nasdaq continued to tumble while the fed paused and cut rates. Of course, we’re not blind to the fact that the 2000s was a whole different era and the crisis was driven by a tech bubble, so the Nasdaq would of course, face a larger correction. Our point here is to highlight that in a true contagion event, sell-offs do not discriminate. On the flip side, if a contagion event does not play out, the Fed is still faced with Inflation which has been way above its target. Not forgetting the Fed’s dot plot terminal rate at 5.1% and a hawkish Fed chair just days before the SVB bank collapse, if the coast is clear of any banking crisis then the path for further rate hikes or holding rates higher for longer could come back into play. Both of which could trigger a repricing in the Nasdaq. Given the opportunistic setup in all 3 index ratios, it is possible to establish a short on any of them. Using the Nasdaq Futures and S&P500 Futures as an example we could: - Short 5 Nasdaq 100 Futures - Long 2 S&P 500 Futures In this trade set-up, the dollar value of the two legs of trade will remain equal, despite the direction in which the Nasdaq or S&P moves. If NQ future moves by 1 point, the short leg of the trade (5 lots of NQ futures) would change by 100 USD. So does the dollar value in the long leg of the set-up (2 lots of ES futures). The same setup is possible with the Micro Nasdaq and S&P500 Futures as well, whereas in the latter case, the 1-point move is equal to 10 USD instead of 100 USD. Trading this spread would be eligible for a margin offset of up to 70%, meaning that the capital required to set up this trade is much lower. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by inspirante
Mixed Territory, 20 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Friday trade in Equities ended down. However, when viewed from the candlestick charts, you can see that the price action was fully "engulfed" by the Bullish candle/bar on Thursday. The interpretation of this action should therefore place more importance on the dominant Bullish candle. ➤ In early Monday Asian trade, things are positively biased. However, we should be aware of the current short and medium technical set-ups in and around the news flow. ➤ In the short-term (since Jan 2 high), we are still in a down-trend (lower lows, lower highs) but in the medium-term (since Oct '22 low), we remain in an up trend (higher highs, higher lows). This paints a mixed picture. When we are in this territory, prices tend to fluctuate more due to the conflicting positioning of market participants. ➤ First and foremost, I think VIX will settle down lower in the immediate term. It may then spike again. That may present a great short opportunity. Keep in mind that the Wednesday 22nd Fed rate decision will probably be the most watched market event ever. ➤ Conclusion: Stick closely to your trading/investment plan, don't get swayed by the news flow. NOTES: BTC and Gold are well supported. I will provide an update on Gold price action later today.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
spx500 is in stage 1 still 1- markets are dynamic 2- when a trend got broken, new one starts not necessarily a reversed of last trend. 3- for now, we can say that, the stage 4 (bearish/ decline faze) has ended. 4- we are now in the end of a stage 1 situation but, it can go to a stage 2 or new stage 4 . I mean in this situation we cant be sure about the next main trend. so, being cash or trading with minimum position size and maximum risk management is highly recommended for now. be aware of volume spike and to see more details go to the daily time-farm. which daily candles accompanied with a bigger volumes?
SP:SPX
by asharifan
Spot On, 17 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Thursday trade saw the biggest one day gain of the year for equities. There cannot be any doubt of it's Bullish intent. For the past few days we saw prices being supported after bouts of selling pressure. This absorption of the selling is what has led to the huge move. ➤ I was spot on with that observation having taken a long position the day prior. I have now sold my position and sitting once more on the sideline. Price may continue to move higher but I'm happy to have grabbed a quick win along with a decent earlier win on the Short trade. ➤ The higher price gap was immediately filled and there are no more open price gaps at this juncture. ➤ What to expect next? Despite the bullish move, the price structure as I see it still provides an opportunity for a drop. The VIX remains elevated relative to recent history and may again spike higher. There is still fear in the market place. It's too early to say if the low set on Monday will be surpassed but there may be an attempt to test that if it will hold. ➤ Conclusion: I expect further trade opportunites next week. NOTES: Tech continues to outperform. S&P500 has not made a new low, medium uptrend remains intact. Bank failures/support and recent economic data likely moving Central banks to a dovish tone.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Expect the Unexpected, 16 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities once again recovered the majority of losses to finish the day with positive momentum. If you read my post last week about the "Follow-Through" this is exactly what I meant. Despite the sharp drop and fear in the marketplace, there was no follow-through. Thus the signs point to a rebound higher and I'm now positioned that way with a moderate long position. ➤ As you know, I'm only talking about the very short-term i.e. a few days at the most. That is where I get most transparency and the reason why I operate in this space as a short-term Trader. ➤ The lower price gap in the S&P500 was immediately filled and now a higher gap has been left open. I'm hoping this will get filled in favour of my long position. ➤ Conclusion: With heightened volatility, you can throw a large amount of logic out of the door. Emotional responses are the main driver. Often this is no rational. Expect the unexpected. NOTES: Tech continues to outperform. S&P500 has not made a new low as yet. Medium uptrend remains intact.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
"Th-Th-The, Th-Th-The, Th-Th... That's all, folks!", 15 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities recovered all losses since last Friday when things really started to fall apart. In the words of Porky Pig: "Th-Th-The, Th-Th-The, Th-Th... That's all, folks!" With a bit of a stutter, the crisis is all but averted. Sound the all clear! ➤ Well, that's my view in the very short-term from a technical basis. The only thing that I'm waiting for is an exit signal and/or a signal to reverse my short position to a buy/long position. What happens after the very short-term is anyone's guess. ➤ I note that there is a lower gap that has formed as a result of today's price action. Let's see if the gap is filled immediately or at a later date. ➤ From a fundamental perspective, if the crisis is resolved/contained, then there is no reason for the Fed to pause rising interest rates. They can keep pushing rates higher in order to fight inflation until "something" else breaks. That means there is no immediate "pivot". ➤ Conclusion: Watch the VIX to see if volatilty remains heightened or it continues to collapse post assurances by the US regulatory authorities. NOTES: Tech outperformed last couple of days. I assume much of this is based on the "pivot" or lower rate expectations.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Defended, 14 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities finished lower on Monday trade. If you had shut your eyes and ears over the weekend and arrived right now after market close, you’d think the market performance at the index level was just like any usual day in the past year. It was volatile, but it was certainly nothing extraordinary. In that respect, the regulatory authorities have done their job to “calm” markets. However, the movements in the regional banks and hyper volatility in Bonds tells us it was anything but ordinary. ➤ S&P500 price fell but was defended at the congestion zone that includes the level at which the year started. VIX hit 30 at my panic level and then receded. I expect things to settle down for a little while until market participants fully digest the ramifications of the policy changes and post mortem of the last 72hrs. There is however a slew of economic data this week starting with CPI Tuesday! ➤ I took off half of my short positions to lock-in profits given the above price action. ➤ In the short-term, prices are in a downtrend having established lower highs and lower lows. In the medium-term, the uptrend remains in tact although barely. A move below the 22nd Dec low would set a lower low and void the uptrend based on classical definition of an uptrend. ➤ Conclusion: Lots of volatility means lots of opportunity. Good luck All! NOTES: $BTC and crypto reacted very well in contrast. Small cap continues to underperform.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Technical Expectations, 12 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Most of you don't come to me for my thoughts on the fundamental aspects of the market environment and I don't usually offer them. There is however one particular aspect I think is worthy of mention. ➤ By now most of you should have read about the fundamental state of affairs in regards to SVB (Silicon Valley Bank). There are huge ramifications in regards to the further potential fall-out. ➤ If the fear or actual contagion takes place with similarly positioned banks or financial institutions then the next "target" would once again entangle the crypto space. Silvergate was the pre-cursor. But the "BIG" one or the "last man standing" is Signature Bank through its "Signet" service. ➤ Signet is as I understand it the basic backbone or gateway of fiat-to-crypto capital flows. It is the infrastructure for capital movement between the two worlds. If Signature Bank gets into trouble, the knock-on effects on crypto might be crippling at least in the short-term. Let's face it, crypto is not yet mature enough to be it's own self sustaining ecosystem. Anyway that's my take on this matter. I stand corrected. ➤ Back to the technicals, although we saw continued selling in equities on Friday, there was some late buying at end of day and into after-hours trading. I cannot tell you if this was dumb money bargin/dip buying or smart money taking advantage of the sharp drop. ➤ The VIX spiked to 28 before receding. For me, the panic level in equity markets is for a move in the VIX to 30 or beyond. We didn't get there. Of course, any contagion fear or otherwise should move VIX much higher. If it doesn't, it should be an "all clear" sign at least in the short-term. ➤ Conclusion: What will be important is the messenging by the US regulatory authorities and how market participants react to it. I would expect some sort of clarification or official stance taken prior to markets opening in Asia on Monday. Silence or a message that doesn't allay fears may result in a bad outcome in the short-term. NOTES: $BTC and crypto price is holding well despite the most recent developments.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Taking A Swing, 10 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I'm probably being overdramatic by saying all hell has broken loose but it certainly looked that way from my perspective with today's equity performance. The VIX certainly portrayed it by spiking much higher. ➤ Equities experienced the biggest daily drop this year. It is an acceleration of the drop from the Feb 2 high. It was only yesterday that I was more in favour of an upward swing. Today's price action clearly have swung it back to the Bears. ➤ It's finally time. Continuing with my cricket analogy: The ball was delivered to my liking and I have taken a big swing of the bat. Will I be able to score some runs or will I get caught? ➤ Is this just the beginning of a fast and furious drop or will it be a short-lived affair? In the case I am right. The downside targets are 387, 380 and 370 on the SPY. ➤ Conclusion: I am Short with full risk after today's price action. NOTES: S&P500 looks to have moved decisively away from the 200 day moving average.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
The Probabilities Have Swung, 9 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equity prices finished the day slightly up countering attempts for a further fall. Following-on from yesterday's note, that means there was NO FOLLOW-THROUGH by the Bears. ➤ I think the probabilities now favour a short-term reversal higher for the Bulls. A lacklustre uptick in the VIX with such a Bearish day yesterday was perhaps the first sign the probabilities have swung. ➤ As a Trader, I play the market based on probabilities. Let me explain this in keeping with my cricket analogy but this time from the perspective of the Batter. The Batter will play a shot depending on the type of delivery s/he receives from the Bowler just like in Baseball. The choice is to leave the ball or hit the ball with varying strength and direction. The more the ball is pitched to your liking (or to your strength), the higher the chance of your success of putting runs on the board. ➤ This is why in recent days I have not offered a shot and have let the ball "pass through to the keeper". Of course I want to trade but the market conditions have not offered balls delivered to my liking. I therefore watch closely, keep my concentration and wait. ➤ Conclusion: A shot at shorting the market is not out of the question but another day like today will see me take a Bullish shot. NOTES: S&P500 is still firmly attracted to the 200 day moving average. Price continues to whipsaw.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
The Follow-Through, 8 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equity prices ended the day sharply lower. It was either this or the other way round. I hope you chose the right side. I'm still sidelined. ➤ It's not all bad being sidelined. I get to think and write more in regards to my insights into markets and their behaviour. ➤ As I said, NO trade was triggered today. It was close. Now I await the "follow-through". I'm pretty fond of that term because it first resonated with me through watching one of my favourite sports: Cricket. ➤ The "follow-through" action of a Fast Bowler in Cricket is very important. It's the ending action after the ball is released. It's vital for a Fast Bowler who steams in at great pace to have a smooth ending action in order to direct the ball as s/he wished, reduce chance of injury and not to be penalised for running on the pitch. It's all a bit technical but it's very important. ➤ A follow-through is just as important when it comes to market movement. It is important for the Bears to see a continuation of today's action tomorrow. Without a proper follow-through, this down move will be reversed easily. That's what I'll be looking out for tomorrow. ➤ Conclusion: A good follow-through to the downside would almost certainly see me leave the sidelines and become a short-term Bear. NOTES: all price gaps have been closed. VIX did not explode higher as it should have.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
2