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Natural Gas’s Price Is As Combustible as the Energy CommodityVolatility in markets creates opportunity, but as risk is always a function of reward, the more the upside, the greater the potential for losses. Since natural gas futures began trading on the NYMEX in 1990, more than a few market participants have lost fortunes in the market that has traded as low as $1.02 and as high as $15.65 per MMBtu. Over five times higher since June 2020 US LNG to Asia was sold out for more than a decade A very volatile energy commodity Europe’s dependence on Russia causes supply issues If prices in Europe are a guide, we could see a challenge to the 2008 and 2005 highs The high came in 2005 when a devastating hurricane destroyed natural gas infrastructure along the US Gulf Coast at the NYMEX delivery point at the Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana. Another storm in 2008 took the price above the $10 per MMBtu level but to a lower high. Over the next twelve years, the natural gas market changed. Massive discoveries of quadrillions of cubic feet of natural gas in the US Marcellus and Utica shale regions and technological advances in fracking and extracting natural gas from the earth’s crust caused the supplies to soar and the price to decline. Since necessity is the mother of invention, two new demand verticals developed. Natural gas replaced coal in the US for power generation. Meanwhile, turning gas into liquid for transport beyond the US pipeline network created an export market for the energy commodity. In 2020, the price fell to the lowest level since 1995 at below $1.50 per MMBtu. Since then, the bear has transformed into a bull. Over five times higher since June 2020 The most recent peak in the natural gas futures arena took the price to $8.0650 on April 18. The weekly chart shows the explosive move from the $1.44 level in late June 2020 to the April 18 high, over five and one-half times higher in less than two years. Moving to a multi-year high as the peak season for demand approaches is one thing, but this rally comes as the peak season ended in March. US LNG to Asia was sold out for more than a decade The natural gas price in Asia has been far above US prices for years. The domestic US natural gas market’s transformation and expanding the addressable market far beyond the US pipeline network has made the energy commodity and NYMEX natural gas futures market more sensitive to international prices and supply and demand fundamentals. Cheniere Energy (LNG) is a leading supplier of liquefied natural gas that travels worldwide on ocean vessels. In 2021, Cheniere’s CEO told CNBC that the company was sold out of LNG for more than a decade after signing long-term supply contracts with Asian consumers. Asian prices were multiples of US prices, making the business highly profitable. Cheniere’s share price has reflected the booming demand for LNG. LNG shares rose from $27.06 in March 2020 to the most recent high of $149.42 in March 2022. At the $135.70 level on April 22, LNG shares reflect the growing demand for their energy product. While the shares and revenues exploded higher, earnings have been elusive. The chart shows the negative earnings trend since Q1 2021. A survey of twenty analysts on Yahoo Finance has an average price target of $149.50 for LNG shares, with forecasts ranging from $61 to $180 per share. LNG is a leader, but the EPS issue could cause the stock to become as volatile as the natural gas price over the past week. A very volatile energy commodity While price ranges tend to widen at higher levels, natural gas volatility was head-spinning over the past week. As the daily chart of May NYMEX natural gas futures highlights, after trading to a high of $8.065 per MMBtu on April 18, the price moved below the $7 level on April 19. Natural gas has never been for the faint of heart as the price has ranged from $1.02 to $15.65 per MMBtu since trading on NYMEX began in 1990. However, after over a decade of lower highs and lower lows, the trend changed in June 2020. The long-term chart illustrates the trend changed when natural gas futures moved above the 2018 $4.929 per MMBtu high, ushering in a bullish path of least resistance for the energy commodity. The quarterly price ranges since mid-2021 are the broadest since 2008, the last time the energy commodity eclipsed the $10 per MMBtu level. Europe’s dependence on Russia causes supply issues The previous administration warned Germany and the EU about depending on Russia for natural gas supplies. Meanwhile, US energy policy shifted from “drill-baby-drill” and “frack-baby-frack” in January 2021 when the Biden Administration began fulfilling its campaign pledge to address climate change. Stricter regulations, canceling pipelines, and bans on fracking and drilling on federal lands caused oil and gas output to decline. While it handed the pricing power in the oil market back to the international oil cartel and Russia, it also limited Europe’s options for natural gas supplies. While the administration took a hard line against US production, it supported a Russian natural gas pipeline to supply Europe with the energy commodity. The February 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine changed the world. While the US, European, and other allied countries came together with severe sanctions, Europe’s dependence on Russian gas remains a window of opportunity for the Putin government. Retaliating for other sanctions, Russia is now demanding rubles for natural gas supplies, boosting the currency despite other stringent sanctions. The US government has leaned on companies like Cheniere to divert supplies from Asia to Europe. However, the administration’s energy policy has not supported the new US terminals to liquefy natural gas and increase supply capacity. Russia remains in the driver’s seat in European natural gas requirements and is free to drive the price higher. If prices in Europe are a guide, we could see a challenge to the 2008 and 2005 highs At the recent $8+ high, US natural gas futures rose to the highest price since 2008. Meanwhile, European prices have screamed higher in 2022. The long-term chart shows ICE UK natural gas futures rose to $800 in March. Before 2021, the all-time high was at the $117 level in 2005. At $171.39 at the end of last week, European natural gas prices remain at lofty levels above the pre-2021 record peak. Natural gas has transformed into a far more international commodity. The US lost an opportunity to supply Europe and remove cash flow from Russia before the first Russian soldier crossed Ukraine’s border on February 24. The revenue from natural gas sales to Europe is funding the first major European war since WW II. Rising natural gas prices will fuel inflation and hit consumers in their pocketbooks in the US. Natural gas is another victim of inflation, the war in Ukraine, and US energy policy. Addressing climate change is a noble cause, but fossil fuels continue to power the world. The shift from hydrocarbons to alternative and renewable fuels is a multi-decade, not a multi-month process. The economic and geopolitical landscapes and US energy policy shift ignited a very bullish fuse in a very combustible commodity. Natural gas price explosions and implosions could be the norm instead of the exception over the coming months and years. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:NG1!
by Andy_Hecht
Nat Gas Should Hold Support @ $6.5The natural gas market has been supply constrained ever since the Russian ukraine war started. The war is significant to the natural gas market because Russia is the worlds 2nd largest producer of natural gas. Russia also holds 20% of the worlds natural gas reserves. NAT GAS is trading above a crucial 10 year resistance level around $6.5, we broke this level around April 13th. Since breaking that level we saw NAT GAS trade up to $6.5, now we are seeing NAT GAS come back down to this level, I believe we see this $6.5 level hold and NAT GAS move higher
NLong
by Value-Invest
BITCOIN 6H TA : 04.21.22 (Update) Yesterday we saw that the price reacted negatively by reaching 42K and with a 3% correction to the level of $ 40800, it was able to react positively to this support level (BB +) and is currently trying to break the resistance of $ 43300. , Considering the volume of market and the power of Bulls at the price of $ 41600 on the current trading day, we can expect the price to rise above $ 43000 and wait for the price to break and consolidate above this level. Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 04.21.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
5
$US30 the glass house 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! $US30 has been consolidating outside of our bearish channel for the past 2 weeks. Many traders automatically assume that this is bullish, but appearances can sometimes be deceiving. My team still expects a strong bearish move to take place within the next couple of weeks, but it may retest 35350-35850 before that happens. Overall, the market appears to be waiting for a catalyst to justify an impulsive move down. Our guess is that repercussions/escalations from the Russian-Ukraine crisis will kick this move into motion before May arrives. If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
U
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
GOLD to 1400???"The Bank of Russia, the country’s central bank, has surprisingly announced a fixed price for buying gold with roubles" - The Conversation 05/04/2022 Announcement: 5000 Rubles per gram tied to Gold! - As of March 28 2022 Just an insight of how this may impact the price of Gold: There are 28 grams in each ounce. 28 grams for 5,000 rubles per gram is 140,000 rubles. When we analyse the conversion rate of rubles into US dollar; 100 rubles, 90 pounds, for each US dollar. If the rubles are tied to gold at 5000 rubles per gram, and there are 28 grams per ounce, which means that an ounce of gold would cost 140,000 rubles, then the conversion into US dollars means that gold costs 1400 dollars per ounce when used the rubles, instead of 1,928 dollars by ounce using the dollars. Russia just wiped out about 30 percent (30%) of the US dollar worldwide when it comes to gold ingots. People all over the world are literally throwing their money on the ruble and throwing away dollars and euros to do it. Now, when we look at price we can see key reversal signals with strong Demand zones around 1550 and 1400. Personally, I believe these levels will be met!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SergenTrades
2
CITIGROUP: earnings coming soonNext week will be published the US most important banks earnings and among them, Citigroup is for sure the one with the best focus. In particular, the US bank is the one with higher exposition in Russia: almost 10 billion dollars. So, what can be the next scenario? I'm short on CITI due to both fundamental reason and technical reason: We are in a short trend, so basically, being trend follower, I will search for retracement to be in. CCI oscillator gives long signal plus bullish divergency on the price. This can give the necessary boost to the stock to retrace up to 56-58 dollars before getting back to its lowest price.
NYSE:CShort
by paolodambra1
2
XAUUSD LONG TO 2140If you scroll through my page, you’d remember I posted this alternative analysis a few weeks ago. This is still a possibility hence why I am hedging my buy with a sell. Before the next leg of the Gold market goes higher, we still need a liquidity sweep below the previous Wave 4 in order to fill the imbalance. The current choppy price action would make sense as it would be considered a corrective wave, rather then an impulse. FOMC tonight could break the current range. I will be catching this move on behalf of myself & my Account Management investors. Let me know if you agree and drop a like. All my socials are on my TradingView profile. Follow my page for more free analysis!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
1
Long Emerging Markets as the World DeDollarization BloomsAll the empires and dynasties I studied rose and declined in a classic Big Cycle that has clear markers that allow us to see where we are in it. This Big Cycle produces swings between 1) peaceful and prosperous periods of great creativity and productivity that raise living standards a lot and 2) depression, revolution, and war periods when there is a lot of fighting over wealth and power and a lot of destruction of wealth, life, and other things we cherish
AMEX:EEMLong
by noam_chom
2
EURGBP bearish scenario:EURGBP runs lower yesterday. The EURGBP is following the EURUSD's move and in the process has shifted the bias back to the downside. Investors remain worried that the European economy, which relies heavily on Russia to meet its energy needs, will suffer the most from the spillover effect of the Ukraine crisis. But Bank of England had softened its language on the need for further interest rate hikes should act as a headwind for the British pound and help limit losses for the EUR/GBP cross. In this pair, technical analysis shows a technical figure Rising Wedge. The Rising Wedge broke through the support line on 06/04/2022. EUR/GBP is forming a bearish formation on a daily chart. If the price holds below this level, we will have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 11 days with a target of 0.82025. According to the experts, your stop loss should be around 0.08513 if you enter this position. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Short
by legacyFXofficial
Energy & Inflation - The Chickens Come Home to RoostThe worldwide pandemic gripped the markets two years ago, throwing the global economy into a brief tailspin. In hindsight, the decline in markets across all assets seems like the blink of an eye. At the time, it felt like an eternity. Crude oil explodes and becomes very volatile Natural gas at an unseasonal high Coal reached a new record peak US energy policy lit the fuse Ukraine and inflation are pouring fuel on the fire Energy demand evaporated, sending landlocked NYMEX crude oil below zero for the first time since trading began in the 1980s. Seaborne Brent petroleum fell to the lowest price of this century at $16 per barrel. Natural gas dropped to a twenty-five-year low at $1.432 per MMBtu, and coal prices fell under $40 per ton. Central Bank liquidity and government stimulus that stabilized the economy ignited a recovery that began lifting prices. Two years later, the meltdown turned into a melt-up as raging inflation and the first significant war on European soil since World War II turned one crisis into another. The chickens came home to roost in the energy markets as prices went from famine to feast for producers and feast to famine for consumers. Crude oil explodes and becomes very volatile In March 2022, crude oil rose to the highest price since 2008 and blew through the $100 per barrel level as a hot knife goes through butter. The monthly chart shows that after probing above $100 in late February, nearby NYMEX crude oil futures rose to $130.50 in March, before pulling back to just below the triple digit price at the end of last week. The quarterly chart shows that the energy commodity rose for the eighth consecutive quarter in Q1 2022. Nearby Brent crude oil futures, the benchmark for European, African, Middle Eastern, and Russian petroleum, exploded to $139.13 per barrel in March before pulling back to the $104 level on the June futures contract. While crude oil corrected from the high, the price has been highly volatile, with $10 daily trading ranges becoming the norm instead of the exception. Natural gas at an unseasonal high The natural gas market moves into the injection season in late March as heating demand declines. March tends to be a bearish time in the natural gas market because of the energy commodity’s seasonality. The monthly chart shows that nearby natural gas futures rose to a high of $5.832 in March, the highest level during the month that ends the withdrawal season since 2008. On April 1, the price was over the $5.70 per MMBtu level, more than double the level at the start of April 2021. Coal reached a new record peak Coal, the fossil fuel that environmentalists consider a four-letter energy commodity, rose to a new record high in March. The monthly chart of thermal coal futures for delivery in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, shows the price reached a record $465 per ton in March before correcting to the $265.40 level. Meanwhile, the price remained above the previous record high from July 2008 at $224 per ton. US energy policy lit the fuse As the energy demand made a comeback from the lows during the second half of 2020, the change in US administrations planted very bullish seeds for fossil fuel prices. The shift in US energy policy was symbolic and real. On his first day in office on January 21, 2021, President Biden signed an executive order canceling the Keystone XL pipeline, fulfilling his campaign pledge to address climate change. Environmentalists and progressive Democrats called the US addiction to hydrocarbons an existential threat. In 2021 and 2022, the administration banned drilling and fracking for oil and gas on Alaska’s federal lands and tightened regulations on hydrocarbon production. All the while, the demand for gas, oil, and coal was rising. OPEC+, the international oil cartel, and its partner Russia maintained production cuts as they received a gift from the US administration. In March 2020, USD petroleum output led the world at 13.1 million barrels per day. The shift in US energy policy to favor alternative and renewable fuels and inhibit hydrocarbon production and consumption handed the pricing power back to OPEC+ on a silver platter. After decades of striving for energy independence, the US surrendered it in a matter of months. As the price rose, the Biden Administration continued to pander to its party’s progressive wing with green energy rhetoric while begging the cartel to increase output thrice. On each occasion, OPEC+ not so politely refused, and the oil price continued to rise. Meanwhile, natural gas and coal shortages pushed those commodities to multi-year highs. The bottom line is that while addressing climate change is a noble cause, it is a multi-decade project. The US and worldwide consumers continue to depend on the hydrocarbons that power the globe. The shift in energy policy planted very bullish seeds where oil wells, gas fields, and coal mines once produced the energy commodities on US soil. An unexpected event made the prices combustible. Ukraine and inflation are pouring fuel on the fire In previous articles before the invasion, we wrote that the February 4 meeting between China’s President Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin was a “watershed event.” The $117 billion trade agreement was secondary to the “no-limits” support deal. Twenty days after the leaders shook hands at the Beijing Winter Olympics opening ceremony, Russia invaded Ukraine launching a bloody and devasting war that created a massive schism in the geopolitical landscape. Sanctions on Russia, retaliatory measures, and heated rhetoric ignited an explosive fuse in fossil fuel markets. In crude oil, the price rose as Russia is a leading producer. Supply concerns pushed the Brent and WTI futures markets into backwardations where deferred prices were lower than prices for nearby delivery. The price eclipsed the $100 per barrel level for the first time since 2014 and reached the highest price since 2008. Asian and European natural gas prices were trading at much higher levels than the US Henry Hub price before Russia’s invasion. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices exploded to a new record peak in March. The chart of ICE UK natural gas futures speaks for itself with the explosive move to a record peak in March. LNG changed the US natural gas market over the past years, expanding its reach beyond the North American pipeline network. LNG now travels the world by ocean tankers, making US domestic prices more sensitive to worldwide levels. In the wake of Russian aggression and European sanctions, Europe is attempting to wean itself from its addiction to Russian natural gas, increasing the need for US LNG imports. The increase in demand has put upward pressure on US natural gas prices and downward pressure on inventories, which were over 14% below the five-year average for the week ending on March 25, 2022. In the coal market, China and India have had a healthy appetite for the dirtiest fossil fuel. Moreover, rising oil and natural gas prices put upward pressure on coal, a less expensive alternative. Meanwhile, rising inflation is causing production costs to rise as labor, equipment, and all other aspects of extracting fossil fuels and all commodities from the earth’s crust have skyrocketed. Rising energy prices are a root cause of increasing inflation, but it has become a vicious cycle that also impacts energy output costs. The February US inflation data ran at the highest level in over four decades. Last week, the US President announced the release of one million barrels per day from the US strategic petroleum reserve. Taping the supplies could run 180 days, making it the most significant use of the SPR in history. Meanwhile, over the past decades, most SPR releases have not pushed prices lower, and some have caused rallies in the oil futures market. US energy policy planted bullish seeds for fossil fuel prices in early 2021. It did not take long for the chickens to come home to roost. Now that consumers are pay $4, $5, $6, and $7 per gallon for gasoline, the administration calls higher prices the Russian President’s fault, a convenient political ploy. The perfect bullish storm in energy began long before Russian troops rolled over Ukraine’s border. The Russian leader and sanctions poured fuel on an already raging inflationary fire in the energy markets. However, US energy, monetary, and fiscal policies were the original arsonists. The base prices for oil, gas, and coal will remain elevated for as long as the eye can see. Buying dips is likely to be the optimal approach to the sector. Since corrections in commodities markets can be brutal, adjust your risk-reward horizons to reflect wide price variance. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by Andy_Hecht
$UVXY market rally slowing down? 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management Bitcoin and the US markets all seem to be losing steam after rallying for the majority of the month of March. My team is now expecting the markets to retrace and behave bearish leading into the month of April. Some US states have been proposing a possible stimulus check to residents to help fight inflation. This may send the markets higher, but in our opinion, this would be an ignorant course of action and it is unlikely to pass. We believe that this would only delay the inevitable recession and cause the inflation situation to grow even worse. With this unlikely scenario being said, we still believe that now is the time to position ourselves defensively against the market. My team will be using $UVXY again as our market hedge, and we hope to come out on top with it just as before. We entered $UVXY today at $14.25 per share. Our take profit is set at $18 with a stop loss at $13.25. ENTRY: $14.25 TAKE PROFIT: $18 STOP LOSS: $13.25 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
CBOE:UVXYLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
12
Bitcoin Daily TA : 04.04.22 As we can see the price broke the 46K resistance zone , now the price is consolidating above this level, by maintaining the support in 44K zone , we can expect the price to rise to the Equilibrium (50% fib ratio of the main downtrend) in the range $ 49,500 to $ 52,000, if this rsistance is broken, one of the most appealing and important ranges for saving profits of whales and institutions is from 52K to 56.5K range ! Important price supports are $ 44500 and then the range of $ 40400 to $ 41,500, respectively! Targets will be updated! Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 04.04.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
5