Energy & Inflation - The Chickens Come Home to RoostThe worldwide pandemic gripped the markets two years ago, throwing the global economy into a brief tailspin. In hindsight, the decline in markets across all assets seems like the blink of an eye. At the time, it felt like an eternity.
Crude oil explodes and becomes very volatile
Natural gas at an unseasonal high
Coal reached a new record peak
US energy policy lit the fuse
Ukraine and inflation are pouring fuel on the fire
Energy demand evaporated, sending landlocked NYMEX crude oil below zero for the first time since trading began in the 1980s. Seaborne Brent petroleum fell to the lowest price of this century at $16 per barrel. Natural gas dropped to a twenty-five-year low at $1.432 per MMBtu, and coal prices fell under $40 per ton.
Central Bank liquidity and government stimulus that stabilized the economy ignited a recovery that began lifting prices. Two years later, the meltdown turned into a melt-up as raging inflation and the first significant war on European soil since World War II turned one crisis into another. The chickens came home to roost in the energy markets as prices went from famine to feast for producers and feast to famine for consumers.
Crude oil explodes and becomes very volatile
In March 2022, crude oil rose to the highest price since 2008 and blew through the $100 per barrel level as a hot knife goes through butter.
The monthly chart shows that after probing above $100 in late February, nearby NYMEX crude oil futures rose to $130.50 in March, before pulling back to just below the triple digit price at the end of last week.
The quarterly chart shows that the energy commodity rose for the eighth consecutive quarter in Q1 2022.
Nearby Brent crude oil futures, the benchmark for European, African, Middle Eastern, and Russian petroleum, exploded to $139.13 per barrel in March before pulling back to the $104 level on the June futures contract.
While crude oil corrected from the high, the price has been highly volatile, with $10 daily trading ranges becoming the norm instead of the exception.
Natural gas at an unseasonal high
The natural gas market moves into the injection season in late March as heating demand declines. March tends to be a bearish time in the natural gas market because of the energy commodity’s seasonality.
The monthly chart shows that nearby natural gas futures rose to a high of $5.832 in March, the highest level during the month that ends the withdrawal season since 2008. On April 1, the price was over the $5.70 per MMBtu level, more than double the level at the start of April 2021.
Coal reached a new record peak
Coal, the fossil fuel that environmentalists consider a four-letter energy commodity, rose to a new record high in March.
The monthly chart of thermal coal futures for delivery in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, shows the price reached a record $465 per ton in March before correcting to the $265.40 level. Meanwhile, the price remained above the previous record high from July 2008 at $224 per ton.
US energy policy lit the fuse
As the energy demand made a comeback from the lows during the second half of 2020, the change in US administrations planted very bullish seeds for fossil fuel prices. The shift in US energy policy was symbolic and real. On his first day in office on January 21, 2021, President Biden signed an executive order canceling the Keystone XL pipeline, fulfilling his campaign pledge to address climate change. Environmentalists and progressive Democrats called the US addiction to hydrocarbons an existential threat.
In 2021 and 2022, the administration banned drilling and fracking for oil and gas on Alaska’s federal lands and tightened regulations on hydrocarbon production. All the while, the demand for gas, oil, and coal was rising. OPEC+, the international oil cartel, and its partner Russia maintained production cuts as they received a gift from the US administration. In March 2020, USD petroleum output led the world at 13.1 million barrels per day. The shift in US energy policy to favor alternative and renewable fuels and inhibit hydrocarbon production and consumption handed the pricing power back to OPEC+ on a silver platter. After decades of striving for energy independence, the US surrendered it in a matter of months.
As the price rose, the Biden Administration continued to pander to its party’s progressive wing with green energy rhetoric while begging the cartel to increase output thrice. On each occasion, OPEC+ not so politely refused, and the oil price continued to rise. Meanwhile, natural gas and coal shortages pushed those commodities to multi-year highs.
The bottom line is that while addressing climate change is a noble cause, it is a multi-decade project. The US and worldwide consumers continue to depend on the hydrocarbons that power the globe. The shift in energy policy planted very bullish seeds where oil wells, gas fields, and coal mines once produced the energy commodities on US soil. An unexpected event made the prices combustible.
Ukraine and inflation are pouring fuel on the fire
In previous articles before the invasion, we wrote that the February 4 meeting between China’s President Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin was a “watershed event.” The $117 billion trade agreement was secondary to the “no-limits” support deal.
Twenty days after the leaders shook hands at the Beijing Winter Olympics opening ceremony, Russia invaded Ukraine launching a bloody and devasting war that created a massive schism in the geopolitical landscape. Sanctions on Russia, retaliatory measures, and heated rhetoric ignited an explosive fuse in fossil fuel markets.
In crude oil, the price rose as Russia is a leading producer. Supply concerns pushed the Brent and WTI futures markets into backwardations where deferred prices were lower than prices for nearby delivery. The price eclipsed the $100 per barrel level for the first time since 2014 and reached the highest price since 2008. Asian and European natural gas prices were trading at much higher levels than the US Henry Hub price before Russia’s invasion. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices exploded to a new record peak in March.
The chart of ICE UK natural gas futures speaks for itself with the explosive move to a record peak in March. LNG changed the US natural gas market over the past years, expanding its reach beyond the North American pipeline network. LNG now travels the world by ocean tankers, making US domestic prices more sensitive to worldwide levels. In the wake of Russian aggression and European sanctions, Europe is attempting to wean itself from its addiction to Russian natural gas, increasing the need for US LNG imports. The increase in demand has put upward pressure on US natural gas prices and downward pressure on inventories, which were over 14% below the five-year average for the week ending on March 25, 2022.
In the coal market, China and India have had a healthy appetite for the dirtiest fossil fuel. Moreover, rising oil and natural gas prices put upward pressure on coal, a less expensive alternative.
Meanwhile, rising inflation is causing production costs to rise as labor, equipment, and all other aspects of extracting fossil fuels and all commodities from the earth’s crust have skyrocketed. Rising energy prices are a root cause of increasing inflation, but it has become a vicious cycle that also impacts energy output costs. The February US inflation data ran at the highest level in over four decades.
Last week, the US President announced the release of one million barrels per day from the US strategic petroleum reserve. Taping the supplies could run 180 days, making it the most significant use of the SPR in history. Meanwhile, over the past decades, most SPR releases have not pushed prices lower, and some have caused rallies in the oil futures market.
US energy policy planted bullish seeds for fossil fuel prices in early 2021. It did not take long for the chickens to come home to roost. Now that consumers are pay $4, $5, $6, and $7 per gallon for gasoline, the administration calls higher prices the Russian President’s fault, a convenient political ploy. The perfect bullish storm in energy began long before Russian troops rolled over Ukraine’s border. The Russian leader and sanctions poured fuel on an already raging inflationary fire in the energy markets. However, US energy, monetary, and fiscal policies were the original arsonists. The base prices for oil, gas, and coal will remain elevated for as long as the eye can see. Buying dips is likely to be the optimal approach to the sector. Since corrections in commodities markets can be brutal, adjust your risk-reward horizons to reflect wide price variance.
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$UVXY market rally slowing down? 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management
Bitcoin and the US markets all seem to be losing steam after rallying for the majority of the month of March. My team is now expecting the markets to retrace and behave bearish leading into the month of April.
Some US states have been proposing a possible stimulus check to residents to help fight inflation. This may send the markets higher, but in our opinion, this would be an ignorant course of action and it is unlikely to pass. We believe that this would only delay the inevitable recession and cause the inflation situation to grow even worse. With this unlikely scenario being said, we still believe that now is the time to position ourselves defensively against the market.
My team will be using $UVXY again as our market hedge, and we hope to come out on top with it just as before.
We entered $UVXY today at $14.25 per share. Our take profit is set at $18 with a stop loss at $13.25.
ENTRY: $14.25
TAKE PROFIT: $18
STOP LOSS: $13.25
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Bitcoin Daily TA : 04.04.22 As we can see the price broke the 46K resistance zone , now the price is consolidating above this level, by maintaining the support in 44K zone , we can expect the price to rise to the Equilibrium (50% fib ratio of the main downtrend) in the range $ 49,500 to $ 52,000, if this rsistance is broken, one of the most appealing and important ranges for saving profits of whales and institutions is from 52K to 56.5K range ! Important price supports are $ 44500 and then the range of $ 40400 to $ 41,500, respectively! Targets will be updated!
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⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 04.04.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
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Three Reasons to Be Skeptical of Higher Oil Prices... For NowOil broke down lower off news that Biden will start to use US oil reserves to the tune of 1M barrels per day and also considered adding more ethanol to gasoline to fight soaring costs. This was enough to bring oil down from the $100 handle, albeit briefly. We found support just above our level at 96.88, about 100 ticks north at 97.78 before we saw a nice pivot back to the $100 handle. However, the Kovach OBV is still very bearish after this selloff, so we will need more momentum to come through if we want to solidify the $100's again. If we drop further, then 96.88, 95.24, then 92.03 are the next targets. It does appear that oil has priced in the news, so we are likely to stabilize and form a value area in the low $100's, with $106 a likely target if that is the case.
Why you can lose your investments on SBER So technically we have the same picture like Alibaba - WXY
PUSRPOSE IS 68 rub
WHY WILL WE HAVE SO TOUGH FALL:
1) Short position denial
2) non-residents have no ability to sell
3) WE HAVE 1 TRILLION FOR BUYING STOCKS AND WE STILL DIDN'T SEE THAT MONEY IN THE DEPTH OF MARKET( FNB doesn't want to buy at these levels )
4)Traders are not fools and they are gonna make a lot of limit positions i guess
Make a screen if i'm gonna be right don't tell me that i didn't warned you :)
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$SPY the illuminati 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management
!! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !!
If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
BUYING GOLD - LONG TERM CUP AND HANDLE PATTERN what just happened with the Russian Central Bank - pegged 1 gram of gold to 5000 rubles (about 50 bucks) at the same time, Putin made it so that Russian Gas and oil can only be purchased in Rubles.
Meaning: Putin basically just pegged Russian Oil and Gas to Gold, using paper rubles as
a proxy. Europe will need to either buy Rubles from Putin in Gold, in order to buy Gas and Oil, or they will have to buy directly in Gold. This means there will soon be more demand for Rubles and with 5000 to 1 peg and oil being priced directly in gold - we could see a massive price disruption in terms of how much Gold a USD can actually still buy.
Foreign Countries holding our dollar debt notes in reserve will see less of a use for them and will want to start dumping them, in order to get something more stable, something which holds its value.
Basically, any currency pegged to gold now will fit the bill? This means these countries -
like Japan will be dumping their dollar debt as fast as they can. They're not going to simply go down with
the ship.
This will all have a deflationary effect on the Ruble making it more valuable over time.
This means Putin will be able to re-peg the Ruble to Gold at whatever rate he wants, down the line, its
5000 rubles today. Tomorrow it might be 500, and then 100, and then 10.
This also means all those excess dollars being dumped by foreign nations are about to come home and could cause even worse inflation than were seeing now.
150+ oil soon? #OILI'm a betting man, OIL seems like decent spot to long here. Ukraine Russia isn't going to stop soon and I cant see Russian enemies paying in ruble, and lets be honest even if Biden does take from the reserve its 5% of the daily American use and they need to replenish again at some stage, not factoring in OPEC either.
XAUUSD LONG TO 2140If you go back to my page and read the description, you'd see I also said there is a possibility that Gold could drop lower towards 1872-1850. We haven't exactly hit 1872 yet which we STILL COULD, but this is still a good zone to go long from. We've seen Gold drop roughly 700 PIPS since yesterday alone, liquidating all the buyers who got into the market late. This manipulative drop could be the last drop and now we will see Wave 5 start.
Let me know if you agree and drop a like. All my socials are on my TradingView profile. Follow my page for more free analysis!
XAUUSD LONG (ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS)If you go back to my page, you'd see my previous long analysis from 1915 is running in 200 PIPS profit currently. If you read the description, you'd see I also said there is a possibility that Gold could drop lower towards 1872-1850. As we approach the end of the quarter, a lot of institutions will be closing out their Gold longs which can lead to Gold prices dropping lower as they will seek for lower prices to buy from.
If the previous analysis is invalidated, this here is the next analysis and zones we will be looking to buy from Gold and hold long term into new high's. Let me know if you agree and drop a like. Follow my page for more free analysis!
Weakly SOS (sign of strength) RADA #RADA Electronic Industries Ltd., a defense #technology company, #develops, manufactures, markets, and sells #defense electronics to various air #forces and companies worldwide. It offers digital video/audio/data recorders; high definition digital video/audio/data recording for fighter and trainer #aircraft; a range of head-up-displays color video cameras for fighter aircraft; and various ground debriefing solutions. The #company also provides avionics solutions, such as mission data recorders and debriefing solutions and HUD video cameras; and avionics for unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) comprising interface control processors, engine control computers, payload management computers, and others.
In addition, it offers land-based tactical radars for defense forces, critical infrastructure protection, border surveillance, active military protection, and counter-drone applications. The company was incorporated in 1970 and is headquartered in Netanya, #Israel.
#nyse #nasdaq #trend #military
Will importers cave into Putin’s gas for Rubles demand?In what is widely seen as an attempt to circumvent Western sanctions and prop up the Russian ruble, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently required “unfriendly” buyers of the country’s natural gas to pay in rubles, a move that could have far-reaching implications on global oil and energy supply.
"I have decided to implement a set of measures to transfer payment for our gas supplies to unfriendly countries into Russian rubles,” news outlets quoted Putin as saying in a government meeting last week, adding that Russia would turn down payments for natural-gas supplies in currencies “that have compromised themselves,” including dollars and euros.
Putin has given the Russian central bank and gas suppliers like Gazprom, Rosneft and Lukoil a week to implement the change.
Why is Putin pushing for ruble payments?
Russia’s decision came as the country’s oil trade has been left in disarray as importers put orders on hold amid a wide condemnation of the Kremlin’s attacks on Ukraine. Since the war broke out over a month ago, concerns of a global energy crisis intensified, sending pump prices skyrocketing to record highs and fanning global inflation fears.
Economic sanctions imposed by the US and its Western allies have also caused the Russian ruble to fall to record lows in the early weeks since the war started, further weakening the Russian economy.
Putin’s latest move sent the ruble to its strongest in nearly a month against the US dollar last week, although it was still down ~25% this year as of Monday, March 28, at ~106 against the dollar.
Will importers cave in?
Russia supplies nearly 40% of the European Union’s natural gas and over 25% of the region’s crude oil. Although the global oil cartel known as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other non-OPEC oil-exporting nations played down concerns of a global oil shortage as the war drags on, many industry players fear a potential demand destruction that could cause oil demand to peak and fall when pump prices become too expensive.
To reinstate the balance in oil supply and demand especially during wintertime in Europe, EU-based importers of Russian oil could then choose to yield to Putin’s demands and pay in rubles.
However, EU leaders, shortly after Putin’s announcement, stood firm and rejected the Kremlin’s demands, with Slovenia Prime Minister Janez Jansa saying “nobody will pay in rubles,” Bloomberg News reported. The message was backed by leaders of Ireland, Italy, Croatia, and Germany, among others, ahead of a summit meeting in Brussels. The leaders stressed that Putin’s demand would be in violation of their existing contracts.
Adding to Putin’s woes is US President Joe Biden’s pledge to deliver 15 billion cubic meters of liquified natural gas to Europe this year on top of the shipments that are already on their way to Europe.
The probability of EU importers caving into Russia’s demands are also looking less likely as the EU steps up its efforts to discontinue buying Russian gas before 2030.
Faster transition to renewable energy sources
Instead of a far-reaching energy crisis that many fear could come out of the Russia-Ukraine war, sanctions against Russia and the Kremlin’s countersanctions could accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources. Europe could speed up the construction of LNG terminals across the continent to store LNG deliveries from allies including the US.
Agora Energiewende, a German think-tank, suggests a 32% reduction in Europe’s gas consumption by 2027 if the continent slashes its use of fossil fuels and transition to wind and solar energy in the next five years. This measure could save the EU between 127 billion euros and 318 billion euros on gas imports, the think-tank said. Scaling up renewable energy in the EU could allow the continent to avoid 80% of today’s Russian gas imports by 2027, Agora Energiewende added.
MOEX reopens after 1 month haltedImportant restrictions as Moscow's Exchange reopens 4 hours a day:
- Short-selling banned
- Selling of shares banned for foreign investors
- Only 33 stocks available for trading
After being halted for 1 month, the Russian market reopens with important restrictions. Also, many institutional brokers from the EU and other NATO countries banned trading on Russian assets. From the technical analysis perspective, it's impossible to assess accurate price movement with so many restrictions and market manipulation by the Russian Federal Bank that is trying to avoid a market crash. So far, the measures have been successful and the aim is to keep holding the market until this crisis is resolved. The downtrend though, it's still there with an important resistance line, even with short-selling banned and other restrictions, Russian investors could panic and sell at market. This is absolutely historic.
ZEC Continues upward in wedge about to breakoutWatch ZEC continue to rise as the Russians use ZEC to bypass sanctions. ZECs anonymous transactions make it a preferred crypto currency for the Oligarchs looking to work around the sanctions (also Pirate Chain is the other). Over the next 18 days I see ZEC going up another 20+% and then it will cross over the upper resistance and continue upward to $300. UNLESS sanctions are lifted. If the sanctions are lifted get out of the privacy cryptos at least for a little while as the Oligarchs pull their money out as they won't need to use it any longer.
The main #MODE of Market Is #SHORTLong story short I marked the exact idea of this position that you can see, I'm still looking for any positions that can make some $ for us, the thing that you have to e careful about is just managing the risk and the capital you have, and remember I always showing the door, and the one that walking through it is you!
Remember This One?As you can see and as I always use to say you can have a very perfect prediction of markets actions by reverse analyzing, and you can see perfectly on the chart that we have here and the points that price just reacted to!
This is an #update for the #usdt #dominance I once shared in my #ideas you can find it on that section of my profile if you want!
Here is what I believe could happen to #USD #DomainaceAs we talked about the theory of #USDT #DOMAINACE and you know how to predict the markets actions by analyzing this symbol simply,heres what I bleve about the next few candles, despite it is on a critical zone at this point and its testing the support zone that it's broken a few candles ago I believe it'll be a torturing bearish candle for the #dominance of #usdt
I'm circling and trying to find something to hunt I'm not usually comfortable when #usdt #dominance is on a critical point but as I said I believe #usdt #dominace is on #bulish #mode so I'm looking for #short positions here's what I found in the first place, but plz try not to take any extra risk on any positions that you are opening!
Stay safe!
MOEX and BTC coupling?The Russian stock exchange MOEX has been impacted by sanctions and war conditions in Ukraine. There is a clear mirroring in the price of BTC and the Russian exchange.
**Update**
NEW - Russia to accept #Bitcoin as payment for energy exports, says Pavel Zavalny, Chairman of the Energy Committee.
LUKOY if i had to pick one russian stockIf i had to pick one russian stock after this huge sell-off, that would be LUKOIL (LUKOY).
PJSC LUKOIL engages in exploration, production, refining, marketing, and distribution of oil and gas.
Last year they had earnings of $773Bil and paid a dividend of $7.35, which is now higher than the price of one share.
It will be adjusted for sure.
The Market Cap is also low, $31.608Bil.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
MOEX Russia Index reopens after one month Short-selling on stocks are banned.
Foreign investors can`t sell stocks or OFZ ruble bonds until April 1.
i think that is the reason why it went up +4.37% today.
The index is now $2578 while in the Covid lockdown it went to $2080. And the world was at peace back then.
I don`t see how the price of the index wouldn`t touch the $2080 level again.
In fact, if the trading restrictions will be lifted after April 1st, then i think it can go down to $1550 and $1220 eventually.