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Russia

MOEX Russia Index reopens after one month Short-selling on stocks are banned. Foreign investors can`t sell stocks or OFZ ruble bonds until April 1. i think that is the reason why it went up +4.37% today. The index is now $2578 while in the Covid lockdown it went to $2080. And the world was at peace back then. I don`t see how the price of the index wouldn`t touch the $2080 level again. In fact, if the trading restrictions will be lifted after April 1st, then i think it can go down to $1550 and $1220 eventually.
RUS:IRUSShort
by TopgOptions
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to continue rising on further sanctGold gained by over 1% to reach a good $1,940 on Wednesday. Strategists at Commerzbank expect the yellow metal to extend its advance as critical NATO Summit on Ukraine could result in further sanctions against Russia. Gold in demand as safe-haven and store of value “The gold ETFs tracked by Bloomberg have registered inflows of nearly 33 tons this week. Inflows since the beginning of the month have totalled over 150 tons. In all likelihood, this month will be one of the most robust ever in terms of inflows.” “The ongoing high safety needs of market participants are probably behind the buying interest, as the war in Ukraine is continuing unabated and the West may well agree on new sanctions against Russia today.” “A high-level NATO meeting will be taking place today in Brussels, its main focus being on Russia. Further sanctions could fuel the inflation expectations of market participants, which would benefit gold in its role as a store of value. The gold price is therefore likely to continue rising for the time being.”
OANDA:XAUUSD
by sniper_2022
$MARA back in for another run 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* This morning my team purchased shares of digital mining bitcoin company Marathon digital $MARA at $25.92 per share. Our take profit is $32.75 with a stop loss at $24.90. Our Entry: $25.92 Take Profit: $32.75 Stop Loss: $24.90 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
NASDAQ:MARALong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
14
XAUUSD LONG TO 2019Gold is currently creating a very tricky & complex wave count in the markets & I believe there is still a chance for it to drop lower towards 1870. However, this wave count is also valid. We have seen completion of Wave 5 hitting a low of 1896 followed by a sharp move up. Since then we have been ranging within this tight zone which could be the start of a new uptrend. I will be trying long positions from here with a potential target of 1000 PIPS profit🦾 If this scenario fails, I will go back to my original buying zone at 1872-1867. All of my socials are listed on my TradingView profile. Feel free to follow my TradingView in order to keep up to date with all the latest analysis. Drop a like if you agree with this chart analysis or let me know if you disagree!
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
1
ZEC is in a wedge, but should break through the top resistanceIf you look at what PirateChain is doing after the sanctions were placed on Russia, you will see privacy crypto is in high demand. As the war drags on and the sanctions continue to strangle the Russian Oligarchs they will continue to use Privacy CryptoCoins to move money. ZEC has already had good upward movement after the sanctions were put in place. Even if they move toward the top resistance line that is a good return, but I believe it will break through that resistance if the sanctions are still in place. Just watch the news and get out if it looks like sanctions are going to be lifted. Yes I know this isn't the way to play the wedge, but with real world events I believe this is the time to get in and maximize profits.
by schlista
$UVXY taking profit for a 38% gain 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management Recap: My team entered $UVXY on February 9, 2022, at $12.60 per share. Our team took profit on $UVXY this morning at $17.42 per share today to secure a 38% gain. Congrats to those of you who took this trade! ENTRY: $12.60 TAKE PROFIT: $17.42 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
CBOE:UVXY
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
1
$MARA 500-yard dash 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* Today team purchased shares of digital mining bitcoin company Marathon digital $MARA at $21.30 per share. Our take profit is $26 with a stop loss at $20.75. Our Entry: $21.30 Take Profit: $26 Stop Loss: $20.75 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
NASDAQ:MARALong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
2
$MARA sold our shares with a 28.5% gain 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* Recap: My team purchased shares of digital mining bitcoin company Marathon digital $MARA at $21.30 per share on February 23, 2022. Our take profit was originally set at $26 but we were able to sell our shares after hours today at $27.5 for a gain of 28.5%. We sold early to secure our gains since we were already up so much, but my team believes that the uptrend will continue. Congrats to those of you who took this trade! Our Entry: $21.30 Take Profit (HIT): $27.5 Stop Loss: $20.75 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
NASDAQ:MARALong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
4
What Will A Geopolitical Compromise Means For Markets?Henry Clay was a US Senator from Kentucky, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, the US Secretary of State, and a Presidential candidate in the 1800s. His legacy and nickname were “The Great Compromiser” for his involvement with the Missouri Compromise, the Compromise Tariff of 1833, and the Compromise of 1850. As Henry Clay understood, any great compromise means that both sides at the negotiating table must come to an agreement that makes them uncomfortable or incomplete. The price of an asset is always the correct price A messy geopolitical landscape Option one- A Great Compromise- High Odds Option two- A prolonged conflict Option three- The unthinkable In 2022, the geopolitical temperature has risen to the highest level since WW II. On February 4, Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin met at the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics. The leaders signed a $117 billion trade agreement, but the watershed event was the “no-limits” cooperation understanding. Twenty days later, after the end of the Olympics, Russia invaded Ukraine, launching the first major war on European soil in over three-quarters of a century. Many analysts believe the Russian invasion sets the stage for Chinese reunification with Taiwan. Markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes. Volatility in markets across all asset classes has increased, and uncertainty is the market’s worst enemy. The war, sanctions, retaliation, and a Chinese-Russian alliance threatens the status quo over the previous decades. The price of an asset is always the correct price As we learned in early 2020 in nearly all asset classes, bear markets can take prices to levels that defy logic and rational and logical analysis. The same holds on the upside as price spikes can reach unthinkable heights. The moves to the upside or downside compel many market participants to sell what they believe are tops or buy when they think the market cannot go any lower. Picking tops or bottoms is more about ego than making money, as the effort contradicts to prevailing trends. Picking a top or a bottom is a statement that the current price is too high or too low, which is always a mistake. Market participants can be wrong, but markets are never wrong. The price of any asset is always the right price because it is the level where buyers and sellers agree on a value in a transparent marketplace. Declaring a market top or bottom is a contrarian statement as it goes against the prevailing trend. A messy geopolitical landscape Two years ago, the world faced a common enemy as COVID-19 ignored borders, race, religion, political ideology, and all of the other factors that separate countries and people. In February and March 2022, the world faces new and daunting challenges: The Chinese and Russian leaders shook hands on a “no-limits” alliance. Russia invaded Ukraine, starting the first major war in Europe since World War II. Ukraine continues to put up fierce resistance. The US, NATO allies in Europe and allies worldwide slapped sanctions on Russia. Russia retaliated with export bans and other measures. North Korea test-fired ICBM missiles. Iran fired missiles near the US embassy in Iraq. Russian missiles came within miles of the Polish border. An attack on Poland triggers article five of NATO’s charter- An attack on one member is an attack on all. China and Russia stand on opposite sides of the conflict from the US and Europe. China plans to reunify with Taiwan against their will. On the US domestic scene, the US remains divided along political lines with mid-term elections in November. The central bank liquidity and government stimulus that stabilized the economy during the pandemic ignited an inflationary fuse before the geopolitical landscape deteriorated. The war in Ukraine only exacerbates price increases as Russia is a leading world producer of raw materials. Europe’s breadbasket in Ukraine and Russia is now a mine and battlefield at the start of the 2022 crop year. Russia and Ukraine typically supply one-third of the world’s wheat and other crops. They are also leading fertilizer exporters, causing problems in other worldwide growing regions. In 2022, the war will lead to rising prices, falling supplies, and the potential for famine and civil uprisings. Historically, food shortages have caused many revolutions. The 2010 Arab Spring that began as food riots in Tunisia and Egypt caused the sweeping political change in North Africa and the Middle East. Meanwhile, the Biden administration pledged to address climate change by supporting alternative and renewable fuels and inhibiting the production and consumption of fossil fuels. US production declined in 2021. After decades of working to achieve energy independence from the Middle East, US policy handed the pricing power to the international oil cartel. Since 2016, Russia has had an increasing role in OPEC’s production policy. In 2022, the cartel does not move unless Moscow agrees to cooperate. Oil prices were already rising when Russia invaded Ukraine, and they moved over $100 per barrel after the attack. Meanwhile, other fossil fuels have moved higher. Coal traded to a new all-time peak. US natural gas rose to a multi-year high, and European and Asia gas prices rose to record levels. Rising energy prices fueled inflation, and the war has poured fuel on an already burning inflationary fire. The war in Ukraine is less than one month old, and the human toll is rising. Tensions are at the highest level in decades. Markets are nervous, and the developments on the geopolitical over the coming days and weeks will dictate the direction of markets across all asset classes. I see three potential outcomes. Option one- A Great Compromise- High Odds In the current standoff, neither side wants to give an inch. The Russian leader faces disgrace or worse if he loses to an inferior military but impassioned Ukrainian population, many of who would choose death over capitulation. The US and Europe do not want to appease Russia like the UK’s Nevil Chamberlain appeased Hitler in the 1930s. China may support Russia, but the world’s second-leading economy has close economic ties with the US and Europe. A Henry Clay-inspired great compromiser could emerge and come up with a solution where Russia, China, the US, Europe, and the rest of the world walk away from the negotiating table unhappy but with a workable solution. I believe, and it is more than a bit of wishful thinking, that this is the high odds result of the current geopolitical mess, and the result will go down in history as the great compromise of 2022. A great compromise would likely lead to a significant stock market rally and a commodity correction. Option two- A prolonged conflict A prolonged conflict where Russians fight a long and bloody war against Ukrainian forces will devastate the world economy and peace. Russia may capture territory, but it is clear President Putin will never capture the souls of the Ukrainian masses. The Russian brutality over the past weeks will never be forgotten. President Putin did not count on the passionate resistance Russian troops encountered across Ukraine. The longer the battle and the more brutal the weapons, the greater the price for Russians controlling the territory over the coming years. Millions of refugees have left the country, but that leaves over 40 million Ukrainians; most now consider Russians their mortal enemy. A long battle will weaken the Russian military and the Russian leader abroad. A prolonged conflict will cause sanctions to collapse Russia’s economy, causing domestic problems for President Putin and his government. Moreover, skirmishes are likely to break out worldwide. In the early days of the war in Ukraine, North Korea and Iran flexed their military muscles. With Europe and the US focused on Ukraine, China could use the opportunity to seize Taiwan. A prolonged conflict would weigh on US stocks and likely lift commodity prices to higher highs. Option three- The unthinkable The final option is the nuclear one, which is low odds, but a highly frightening scenario. If Russian aggression spreads across the Ukraine border into Poland or any NATO member country, it will trigger Article five that states an attack on one is an attack on all. The US and Russia have the most nuclear weapons, which increases the potential of MAD or mutually assured destruction. In this scenario, it does not matter how markets react as the world would face a disastrous situation. I believe that a great compromise is on the horizon, which would cause markets to stabilize. However, the extent of the compromise is critical as it must address the current situation in Ukraine and Taiwan and threats from North Korea and Iran. Anything short of a comprehensive understanding between the world’s powers will cause years of rising tension and threats to the nearly eight billion people that inhabit our planet. Where is Henry Clay when the world needs him? Expect the volatility in markets to continue. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
SP:SPX
by Andy_Hecht
2
Understanding Market Risks Through HistoryIn this post, I'll be referring to the historical chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) in order to explain my perspective on risks associated with the market, and how to respond to current market conditions as a trader and investor. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only . In my previous educational post, I discussed why the Fed's rate hikes were not as significant to us as we thought it'd be. I mentioned the idea of the market already pricing in not only the information itself, but also people's reactions to it as well. As announced, the Fed raised rates on the 16th of March, approving the first interest rate hike in more than three years. As anticipated in my investment thesis, the market handled this well, and the Nasdaq index alone has bounced over 10.49% since the lows of the past 5 days. Today, I'm going to talk about the war in Ukraine from a statistical standpoint, and how this is unlikely to lead to a multi-year recession . Historical Cases - In 1914, the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand marked the beginning of the first global scale war modern society would witness - The war lasted 4 years before Germany admitted its defeat and signed the armistice agreement. - During this time, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit record highs of 110%, making today's 7% figures look moderate. - After the war, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied a whopping 504%, before the American economy was struck with the Great Recession. - After the Great Recession, the world faced a second world war in 1939, which started with Germany's invasion of Poland. - The markets crashed, but not as severely as the Great Depression, and CPI recorded 74% during this period. - With Japan's surrender, uncertainty was resolved, resulting in the DJI delivering 523% returns. - Then came the Vietnam war in 1964, which started with the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution. - The market ranged sideways for almost a decade, creating lower lows, with situations deteriorated by the Oil Shock of 1973. - During this period, CPI hit record highs of 207% with factors of global uncertainty such as the war, which the US couldn't seem to win, and Oil Shock. - After the war ended and the economy recovered from the Oil Shock, DJI delivered a whopping 1,447% returns, until the market started shaking again with the 911 terrorist attacks against the United States. Lessons Learned - So what is it that the market tells us? - I've outlined what wars and regional conflicts do to markets in the post below: - Historical cases tell us that the market prices in information about the war, and corrects in advance. - Once the conflict actually takes place, the market starts to bounce from its local lows, as uncertainty has been resolved to an extent. - From a macro perspective, as seen through the historical chart of the DJI, the end of wars usually mark the beginning of a multi-year bull rally as negative sentiment will have been completely cleared by then. Market Risks - That is not to say that I'm irresponsibly bullish. I do think there could be probable cases that lead to a global expansion of the crisis, and the collapse of the financial markets. - For instance, Russia's use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) could damage the markets to a greater extent than anticipated. - It seems as though the market is considering this to be an improbable case, which it is, but there's no reason to be too complacent. - According to an FSB whistleblower, it was recently revealed that Xi Jinping had plans to invade Taiwan this fall, depending on the success of Russia. - If that were the case, then it wouldn't be a huge logical leap to consider north Korea's possible initiation of war against South Korea, and a war breaking out at a global scale. Conclusion [/b It all boils down to uncertainty in the market, and people's irrational responses to it. I believe that a successful negotiation between Russia and Ukraine could lead the markets to swiftly rebound once again, though that is not the only factor of uncertainty at the moment. Inflation (CPI) will eventually cool down in an organic manner, as markets realize the stability that is being brought to the economy, and the Fed's actual influence on the market. People ignore bad news during uptrends, and they ignore good news during downtrends. I see a plethora of opportunities where companies that generate tremendous cash flow at an increasing rate with insane growth indicators, are neglected by the market. It's important that we clearly understand where we're at in terms of the market cycle. I believe that we're at a corrective phase of a bull market, rather than at the beginning of a recession. During corrections of bull markets, the smart move is to buy cheap stocks. It's worked effectively in making money 100 years ago, and I don't doubt that it'll work now as well. If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
TVC:DJIEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
8
Will sanctions on Russia backfire on the U.S.? What about crypto- Sanctions, led by the U.S. in hopes of punishing Russian aggression may NOT have the impact the U.S. is hoping for? Could they actually backfire? - Saudi Arabia rejects Biden's request for talks on increasing oil production and instead announces that they are considering accepting Yuan instead of dollars for Chinese Oil sales (per house rules, links to sources are not allowed) - India's move to "explore" alternative payment channels with Russia to avoid sanctions (per house rules, links to sources are not allowed) - With official inflation numbers running at 8% and climbing the Federal Reserve is being forced to raise interest rates for the first time since 2018 (per house rules, links to sources are not allowed). Multiple rate hikes are projected. The last time rates were raised markets crashed and the Fed quickly reversed course. This leads many to say that the Fed won't really raise rates as much as projected, because the market won't let them, but what these people don't seem to get is that in order to finance the U.S. national debt, new debt has to be sold every year. As inflation rises countries like Saudi Arabia become more and more inclined to invest in assets that show a return or at least hold their value. This means that unless you raise the rates to a level that offsets inflation many investors will move elsewhere and you won't be able to take on new debt. Central banks are cornered. Once they start raising rates government budgets will quickly hit a wall as interest payments on existing debt become unmanageable. - This may devastate the dollar along with the U.S. economy, but it may be great for crypto
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
GBPCHF could try to break the long lasting trend...or notGBPCHF is really undecided nowadays. It has a long lasting trend to fall since the January of 2000. Now it has formed a giant triangle bottoming at around 1.18. Now the Bank of England is in a rate hiking cycle while the Swiss National Bank does not indicate a rate hike any time soon, so a strengthening of the pound is very likely. Besides that, the shockwaves of Brexit are slowly fading, Boris Johnson and his administration set a clear path for the economy (hopefully a good path), so everything is in order, in theory. On the other hand, the war in Ukraine, the sanctions on Russia, the supply chain problems and the UK's firm anti-russian position and rethoric bring some uncertainty to the equation. On the long run I expect a possible break-out attempt to the upside, targeting the upper end of the falling yellow falling channel firs (around 1.247), then the upper end of the blue triangle (around 1.26). Be cautious! The other scenario is a rapid fall to the bottom of the channel (1.194), then to the bottom of the triangle (1.18). Follow me for more updates on the pair and other assets. Don't forget: money is weird and unpredictable, so plan for all possible scenarios and hedge your positions!
Long
by weirdmoney