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USDWTI H4 - Long SetupUSDWTI H4 A break short of $70/barrel would be quite significant in my eyes, threatening the break as we speak, but need to ideally see a solid H4 close below. Our H4 support region is trading marginally below that $70 whole number, but the 'zone' is still a decent support region. Just need to wait for price exhaustion, especially with a volatile pair like WTI. Not personally something I'm looking to trade this early on in the week, but worth updating the watchlist from yesterdays webinar.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by Trade_Simple_FX
Hacking For Ransom- A Franchise- When’s The IPO?My phone constantly rings with solicitations for solar energy, extending the automobile warranty for cars I got rid of years ago, and with dire warnings that charges are pending against me from social security, the IRS, or other agencies. Some are annoying, but many are scams. A few years ago, I opened an email that locked my entire computer system with a message that I would receive the key if I paid a handsome sum in Bitcoin. I chose to get rid of my hard drive and start all over again. Losing years of files was the price for an education. I have never opened a file from an unknown source since that experience. I am even extra careful with attachments from known sources these days. The hackers have been winning Companies have been paying- Colonial and JBS Cryptocurrencies are untraceable The US government says- You’re on your own The ramifications are staggering for businesses and markets Hackers are an ongoing and growing problem for individuals, companies, and even government agencies. Whether they sit in Russia, China, North Korea, or our own backyards, there seems to be no stopping the efforts to extract a ransom. Hackers have been attacking those with insufficient security and have become so technologically sophisticated that they can pierce cyber armor that protects data and the ability to conduct business. The ransom business is profitable. It has a low overhead and is growing. It is disruptive and dangerous. The nefarious offshoot of technological advances is so successful that a public offering of shares in hacking companies would likely receive a high valuation and lots of interest. After all, it’s a real money maker for the culprits. The hackers have been winning Around two years ago, my 91-year-old dad received a phone call from someone saying he was an attorney for his grandson. The caller said my son was involved in a car accident, was in the hospital in Boston, and was under arrest for driving under the influence. He asked my father to send money immediately for his grandson’s defense. Fortunately, he called me, and I immediately called my son, who was sitting at his desk at work in New York City. The call was a scam. I called the FBI, who said they deal with this every day, and there was little they could do as the scammers use networks and phones that are untraceable. Technology has only made law enforcement’s job more challenging. Savvy criminals have been winning. While we did not fall for the scam, many succumb as they pull on emotional drawstrings. What grandfather would not do anything to help or protect their grandchild? If one out of ten or even one hundred scamming attempts succeeds, the criminal venture is highly profitable. Meanwhile, hacking computers take scamming to a new level. When a hacker gets inside the systems of a business or a government agency, they can extract valuable data, proprietary corporate information or shut down all business activity. The latter seems to be the most profitable as companies with little choice are paying up and forking over millions, making hackers huge winners. Companies have been paying- Colonial and JBS Two hacking instances in 2021 temporarily roiled commodity markets. On May 7, Colonial Pipeline, a US oil pipeline system originating in Houston, Texas carries gasoline and jet fuel to the Southeastern United States, was the victim of a ransomware cyberattack. The hack impacted computerized equipment that manages the pipeline system. The move created fuel shortages and caused refining spreads to spike higher in mid-May. The chart shows the spike in the gasoline crack spread to $27.30 per barrel during the week of May 10. The refining margin moved to the highest level since September 2017 as the market feared shortages and consumers in the Southeast began hoarding gasoline. Jet fuel is a distillate oil product. The NYMEX heating oil futures contract is a proxy for other distillates like jet fuel. The chart of the heating oil refining spreads illustrates the rise to $21.28 per barrel during the week of May 10 as the Colonial Pipeline hack created fears of shortages. Colonial Pipeline CEO Joseph Blount told the US Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs; his company paid a $4.4 million ransom on May 8, the day after the attack. The payment was in Bitcoin, the hacker’s currency of choice. On June 1, JBS, the world’s leading beef supplier, suffered a hack of its computer networks that briefly shut down operations in the US and Australia. While the Colonial hack caused gasoline and distillate prices to spike higher, the beef markets spiked to the downside. August feeder cattle futures dropped to a low of $1.4510 on June 1. August live cattle futures plunged to $1.14625 per pound on fears that meat processing plants would not accept animals because of the hack. JBS CEO Andre Nogueira said the company paid hackers an $11 million ransom “to prevent any further risks for our customers.” Cryptocurrencies are untraceable Some market participants and government officials believe that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are causing a rise in hacking that holds companies and individuals hostage. Cryptocurrencies are a libertarian form of money that flies beneath the radar of government officials, central banks, and regulators. While the blockchain records transactions, they are anonymous. Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank, and Janet Yellen, the US Treasury Secretary, have expressed concerns about the nefarious uses of cryptocurrencies long before the recent hacks. Passions run high in digital currencies. A few years ago, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon called Bitcoin a “fraud.” At the same time, Warren Buffett, one of the world’s preeminent value investors, said cryptocurrencies are “financial rat poison squared.” Charlie Munger, Mr. Buffet’s 97-year-old partner, doubled down and called cryptocurrencies “disgusting” and a threat to civilization in recent comments. The lack of regulation and anonymity make Bitcoin and other cryptos a hacker’s dream. The US government says- You’re on your own The payment of ransom by companies that are critical parts of the US’s energy and food supply chain infrastructure is a failure of the government to protect the businesses and people they serve. Colonial and JBS pay taxes. The individuals that depend on their products pay taxes. The US government is responsible for a safe environment. While the Biden administration promised to get to the bottom of the hacking issues, the President said that the businesses were on their own. President Biden told a reporter, “The bottom line is that I cannot dictate that the private companies do certain things relative to cybersecurity. A lot of you are very seasoned reporters; you’ve been covering this debate up on the Capitol Hill for—before I became President—and, unrelated to President Trump, just a debate internally among Senators as to whether or not the government should be assisting. And it gets into privacy issues and a whole range of things.” The ransom payments were a sign that the businesses could not wait or depend on the world’s leading democracy for assistance. At a recent summit in Geneva, President Biden sought assistance from Russian leader Vladimir Putin as Russia is a leading source of hacking activity. Since the meeting, the hacks continue. Last week, the US leader called his Russian counterpart again to reiterate his displeasure. The ramifications are staggering for businesses and markets The ramifications of hacking for ransom are downright scary. If the culprits can hold a critical energy pipeline and the world’s leading beef supplier hostage, what about the US power grid, water supply, farm and logistical networks, and other critical infrastructure? When companies or individuals pay the ransom, there is no guarantee that the hackers will not demand more or refuse to provide the key so systems can operate. Moreover, a hack that takes data or proprietary information could be a gift that keeps on giving to hackers. It seems that the anonymity of the cryptocurrency asset class only exacerbates the problem. If a hacker cannot receive untraceable payment, they will be less likely to attack. Meanwhile, infrastructure, companies, and individuals remain at risk. With more regulation on the horizon, hackers may use a closing window of opportunity to step up their nefarious activities. A massive hack could impact markets across all asset classes, not only their prices but also their continued operation. Hacking and ransom attacks are a clear and present danger that is growing. They have the potential to disrupt markets and the supply chains for essential products and services. Use the link below to sign up for the next Monday Night Strategy Call Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Andy_Hecht
30
Polimetal(POLY)Disclaimer/ On average, 90% of all stocks move down with the market, and 75% move up. The wave principle applies to some extent to individual stocks, but counting the waves for them is often confusing and does not have much practical significance. But since the company has a large capitalization, we assume that the state of the shares depends on the psychology of the masses. Information Polymetal International plc shares are traded on the Moscow, Kazakhstan, and London Stock Exchanges, are included in the MICEX index, FTSE 250, and FTSE Gold Mines index. The portfolio of projects of JSC "Polymetal" includes 36 licenses with a total area of more than 7800 sq. km. DIVIDEND POLICY Effective August 26, 2020, to increase the transparency of the decision-making process on the amount of dividends and to ensure the predictability of capital allocation while maintaining the dividend yield at a level above the industry average, the Board of Directors approved the replacement of the special dividend with a new approach to the payment of the final dividend. Thus, the Company's amended dividend policy will assume the following: - The minimum amount of the final dividend will be 50% of the adjusted net profit for the second half of the year (provided that the ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA is below the established threshold of 2.5 x). - In addition, the Board of Directors reserves the right to increase the final dividend to a maximum payout of 100% of free cash flow (provided that it is greater than 50% of adjusted net income). In making this decision, the Board of Directors will take into account, among other factors, the Company's macroeconomic forecasts, debt burden, and future capital investments. - The interim dividend formula will remain unchanged – 50% of adjusted net profit for the first half of the year (subject to the ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA below the established threshold of 2.5 x). - The transfer of dividends to the shareholders ' accounts after payment takes some time. Please contact your broker for more details. Taking into account these changes, starting from 2021, Polymetal will pay dividends twice a year
P
by loco_mango
3
Polys(PLZL)Disclaimer/ On average, 90% of all stocks move down with the market, and 75% move up. The wave principle applies to some extent to individual stocks, but counting the waves for them is often confusing and does not have much practical significance. But since the company has a large capitalization, we assume that the state of the shares depends on the psychology of the masses. Information Polyus (formerly Polyus Gold) is a Russian gold mining company. One of the largest in the world and the largest in Russia in terms of gold production. It was founded in 2006 during the separation of the gold mining assets of OJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel (CJSC Polyus and its subsidiaries) into an independent public company on the basis of the assets owned by CJSC Polyus, a 100% subsidiary of Norilsk Nickel. In December 2006, American Depositary receipts (ADRs) for Polyus Gold shares were listed on the London Stock Exchange. In 2009, Russian businessman Suleiman Kerimov bought a 37 % stake in Polyus Gold from Vladimir Potanin for $1.3 billion. In 2011, as a result of the reversal agreement, the new holding company became Kazakhgold Group Limited, which in the same year was renamed Polyus Gold International Limited (PGIL). In June 2012, PGIL shares received a premium listing on the London Stock Exchange. In June 2017, PJSC Polyus conducted a secondary placement of its shares, in which 9% of the shares were placed for $800 million. In April 2019, 3.84% of the shares were sold as part of a new secondary placement procedure PJSC "Polyus" for about $390 million. As a result, the share of the company's securities in free circulation was about 20.51%.The Group's proven and probable reserves (P&P) amount to 64 million ounces — the third largest in the world
RUS:PLZL
by loco_mango
BTC/USDT The Volume is not enough! #SHORTI am so sorry for just basing my TA with how and what I feel... now I ve been checking the market and its movement together with the FUDs and good news... FUD = BTC Russia Tracked??? (FBI) Good news = Defi eyed by Amazon; hath 500$ Million to BTC by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. Considered TA: RSI ATR VOL and the Movement at 1D 4hr and 1HR considering the fri sat sun being the weakest days. We still have Huge fear and denial in the market. But the people who wants to Hodl and learn are many they are just silent. sold 50% to buy that 27 26 25
Short
by PuyatanHoldings
2
Trading Idea - #GAZPROMIn the short term a SELL, in the long term a BUY! SELL/SHORT ENTRY: 5.08 EUR TARGET: 4.35 EUR (+14%) STOP: 5.55 EUR 1.) Medium-term resistance level at 5.20 EUR seems to be too strong for the actual company situation! 2.) This stock could be of great interest to investors looking for returns. 3.) Now it's getting political!!!! The German government's coordinator for transatlantic cooperation, Peter Beyer (CDU), has described the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline as an obstacle to restarting relations with the USA. He has shown willingness to freeze construction in order to be able to resolve difficulties with the USA. 4.) Nord Stream 2 is now around 95 percent complete, according to the information. The pipeline is expected to transport 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia to Germany per year. 5.) The upward sales expectations show a return of the positive expectations of the analysts at this company. 6.) The analysts' average target price is relatively far removed from the current price, which suggests a potentially significant long-term increase in value.
GShort
by Traderherz-Analytics
Trading Idea - #TCS Group HoldingSHORT ENTRY: 47.70 EUR TARGET1: 42.50 EUR (+10%) TARGET2: 36.60 EUR (+23%) STOP: 53.43 EUR 1.) TCS is losing momentum. Couldn't break the 53.00 EUR resistance line! 2.) after a strong upward trend with 2 significant impulses, I expect a 2-step correction. See above TARGET 1 and TARGET 2! 3.) The main business of TCS Group Holding is private customer banking within the Russian Federation, which is handled by Tinkoff Bank. TCS is a provider of online financial services for private customers via its own platform. TCS Bank specializes in credit cards and online consumer credit in Russia. 4.) TCS announces a massive buyback of shares by August 2021. The necessary expenditures could force the share into the correction in the medium term.
1Short
by Traderherz-Analytics
POG(Petropavlovsk) Disclaimer/ On average, 90% of all stocks move down with the market, and 75% move up. The wave principle applies to some extent to individual stocks, but counting the waves for them is often confusing and does not have much practical significance. But since the company has a large capitalization, we assume that the state of the shares depends on the psychology of the masses./ (There are more doubts than usual right now) / It is also interesting that companies with a smaller capitalization have a greater chance to"shoot" . In this case, the shot can be as large as 2000%.(unlikely)(Do not forget that the Moscow stock exchange has a limit on the growth of 40%, but the London stock exchange, it seems, does not) As you can see, the graph shows 3 options: 1) The 3rd wave has started(The most improbable) 2) Continuation of the correction, taking into account the fact that there will now be a correction to this correction. (The most preferred option, since it converges with my plans for gold, etc.) 3) Continuation of the correction Information The company's shares are included in the FTSE 250 index calculation and Gold Mining on the FTSE The company's shares as of August 2020 were distributed as follows: Yuzhuralzoloto Group-24.34% Prosperity Capital Management Limited – 11,59% Everest Alliance Limited (CABS Platform Limited) – 6.44% Russian Welfare Fund – 6.10% Slevin LLC — 3.85% Societe Generale SA – 0,47% Bonum Capital – 2,98%
PLong
by loco_mango
The second option, more preferable.This option is more preferable because the fall converges with my expectations about the EUR/RUB, all the waves are poorly formed driving waves, the last moving wave in particular. Accordingly, we need to think about the composition of this index. Consists of: 1) GAZP - 15.00%(Most likely there will be a correction) 2) SBER -13.84%(Most likely there will be a correction) 3) LKOH - 13.43%(Most likely there will be a correction) 4) GMKN - 6.26%(Most likely there will be a correction) 5) YNDX - 5.31%(Most likely there will be a correction) 6) NVTK - 5.31%(Most likely there will be a correction) 7) TATN - 4.50%(There may be a lateral correction) 8) ROSN - 4.41%(Most likely there will be a correction)
RUS:RTSIShort
by loco_mango
Sberbank to break, but only with good earnings reportHi there, I've been following Sberbank and here are my thoughts: there is a strong resistance level at 290-296, which is facing an uprising trend line (dotted line). In simple terms, I expect a continuation of a trend with a break out through that resistance level. Sberbank is being fundamentally strong company, hence I expect positive breakout. The only major concern is an earnings report on the 26th, hence I do not expect a break out before that. MA50 tends to be a local support level for a trend. Of course, the earnings might not match expectations and then I would expect a pull back to test new levels later, but let's see. Not an advise to invest, but feel free to share your reflection!
RUS:SBERLong
by nikhrushchev
Brent Crude - Looking Overextended Ahead of OPEC+ MeetingOil prices have enjoyed a remarkable rally over the last four months as the world has gone from entering the most severe wave of Covid-19 to rolling out vaccines and planning its final exit from the restrictions. Efforts by OPEC+ have been key to this, including the surprise one million barrel cut from Saudi Arabia earlier in the year, which confirmed the group was committed to bringing the market back into balance even as the world starts to emerge from the pandemic. But the next phase is arguably the most challenging for the group so it's so surprise that the week before the next meeting, we're seeing momentum slipping on the daily chart, even as prices are hitting new highs. That kind of divergence is a red flag rather than a reversal signal but after such a powerful run and ahead of a meeting that could be challenging, a correction wouldn't be entirely surprising. We could still see some more gains in the near-term but the closer it gets to $70, the more interesting the momentum indicators will become, given the psychological barrier and the fact it has historically been a key level of resistance. The 4-hour chart shows that price is currently quite extended, with it being quite far from the moving averages compared to where it's traded the last few months. A move back towards the 55/89 SMA band would be very interesting, with it having been a key support zone all the way up. There have been small moves below at times but broadly speaking, it has been a key reversal point. A break below this could signal a larger correction, although that may well depend on the outcome of next week's meeting and how positive investors stay in the face of rising yields.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by OANDA
USDRUB could drop to RR 66-68 once below 72The RUB is getting stronger amid global weakness of USD (DXY) and rising crude oil. Below RR 72 the move to the upside could be invalidated. There is a chance that this drop could extend to the downside to build the large wave Y of WXY flat correction. We saw such a drop in wave W before. The minimum target is to hit the start point of wave X at RR 68. The equal distance with wave W could send the USDRUB even deeper to RR 66. I added the inverse UKOIL on the left scale. It shows that RUB accumulated a huge divergence as oil is rising and RUB doesn't catch up with it. Before last summer the correlation worked amazingly well. Do you agree with this view? Please share your comments below. Cheers!
Short
by aibek