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EXPRESS Long-term and medium-term forecast for USDRUBEXPRESS Long-term and medium-term forecast for USDRUB Dear friends, This idea is open and published as part of my content promotion. I draw your attention to the fact that from 11.11 all forecasts are only in the closed channel. At the moment, there are already reviews on GOLD, EURUSD, S&P 500 I hope you find this idea useful and support it with your like. EXPRESS Long-term and medium-term forecast for USDRUB Most likely scenarios: Global scenario - movement within the bull channel Weekly TF - movement within the descending channel. Daily TF - the most likely target for bulls before the end of the year is 64.50 - 65.20 rubles The key change scenario is the red line. The exit below will mean an appreciation of the ruble shortly, with a possible minimum of 62 rubles (see red arrows) If the current scenario continues, the maximum will be around 65.50 rubles for 1 USD (see grey arrows). Full analysis for the next year will be possible to do only at the close of the December candle. Good luck to everyone and good profits! Yours faithfully, Michael @Hyipov =================================================== ====== Like and subscribe if you liked the material I will be glad to any message. Thank you very much Everyone GTI Dear Friends, I remind you that this is only my personal view of the market, which I share with you. I do not guarantee profits. Only you make the final decision and all the risks associated with it.
by Hypov
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2019.02.12Here we go for a round of EM FX market updates and with Oil on the move first up USDRUB. After the doldrums of Thanksgiving liquidity is starting to enter back into play, although with market out of position there is no need to overload exposure. The USD tide is turning and clients here are pressing the buy side on RUB crosses to play the dollar sell-off. More activity coming with NY session, a good level to pick up offers as the cross drives through technical momentum at 64.3x. Best of luck all those in RUB
Short
by ridethepig
3
In Soviet Russia, Money Buys YOU! - (USDRUB)Hello Traders! The Ruble has been in a steady uptrend for a while now. It's no secret that Russian debt, lowest of developed nations (Roughly $200B) is so low now that Russia claims to have enough cash on hand to cover their debts completely. After the last Russian economic crisis, policies under Putin have sought to eliminate debt and generate faith in the economy. I believe strong fundamentals combined with positive technicals create here a wonderful long opportunity! We can start layering in immediately. Even TD9 shows an imminent buy opportunity. Be careful of manipulation! Stay safe and good luck traders.
Long
by vox-populi
Saudi Aramco Fire to be Bullish Oil? If you have not heard, Saudi Aramco refineries apparently got hit by a drone attack and are now in flames. The US has come out and blamed Iran for this attack. This should be bullish oil, I am looking for a break above the 58.75 zone. I am bearish on oil given the fundamentals and the fact that we are likely heading to a recession. However, anything geopolitical will keep oil buoyed. To be honest oil needs to be kept up. A lot of western oil companies took out loans from banks during the recent fall in oil. If oil falls and these oil companies feel the pinch once again and cannot afford to pay their loans to the banks...the banks will also fall. Oil seems like it needs to be 'managed' above 40 or 50 to keep these companies from falling. If you have read my work on the US Dollar, I have outlined why the Dollar going HIGHER will exacerbate the world problems. You can read that post linked below. Russia and China are attacking Dollar demand. Right now the US has what the French called 'exorbitant privilege' meaning as long as the Dollar remains the reserve currency, there will always be artificial demand for it. Meaning the US can print as much dollars they want without having to care about their debt and deficits. Once US Dollar demand takes a hit, the Chinese can sell off their treasuries and do some damage ( especially when interest rates are cut and moved lower). But they are targeting the Petro Dollar: the US Dollar being used for oil payments. Iran is key for Russia and China. As the US Dollar gets stronger, nations such as South Korea, Japan, Turkey, India and some European nations have chosen to purchase oil from Iran because Iran accepts any currency besides the US Dollar for their oil. Japan, South Korea and some European nations have chosen to lessen or halt their imports due to US pressure. However Turkey and India told the US to mind their own business. The Indian Rupee and the Turkish Lira have been decimated due to the US Dollar strength. These nations essentially cannot afford using the Dollar to buy Oil. Iran is convenient for them because they can use their own currency to purchase oil. As the US Dollar gets stronger, more nations will want to ditch the petro dollar and purchase Iranian oil. On a side note, Russia and China have put a lot of money into Venezuela and backing Maduro...it is likely they have told him that when Venezuelan production comes back to par, Venezuela will NOT accept US Dollars for their oil. Whereas the US backed Guaido would essentially only accept US Dollars for Oil. We have seen this situation occur with Saddan Hussain in Iraq and Gaddafi in Libya where it was likely they were taken out due to the fact they were beginning to accept other currencies besides the Dollar. The Russian and Chinese plan is simple. To get more nations to drop the US Dollar as the Dollar price goes up. In fact with their large Gold reserves, they may be telling dark pools to keep buying the dollar. Yes, there currency will fall against the US Dollar, but their gold priced against their currency increases so they avoid damage. This is how the Russian central bank pretty much fought off US Sanctions. So as the Dollar gets stronger, more nations will elect to purchase oil from Iran. This means that Saudi Arabia begins to lose market share because their customers are going to Iran. This would force the Saudi's to drop the Dollar in order to entice customers...but there is another thing. Putin has been getting close with Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) who is expected to be the next King. We have all seen that Putin-MBS and Trump watching from behind high five meme. It is likely that when MBS becomes King, he will drop the US Dollar with a guarantee that the Russian military will offer Saudi Arabia protection from any US responses. Right now Saudi Arabia can influence American foreign policy greatly. I am sure they have told the US to deal with Iran otherwise they drop the Petro Dollar. They are in a very strong position. For the Americans, I think they know that Iran is the key. They know they need to take Iran out. Of course Iran is no pushover. But the military will have to strike Iran in order to protect US Dollar demand. The US military is the armed branch of the Federal Reserve and the US will have to use the military to force every nations to accept and use the US Dollar and punish those that do not.
TVC:USOIL
by Uncharted-FX
21
EURRUB | A Possible Mid-Term BUY Area.Hi, Slowly I start to add some mid-term (weeks, months) trading & investment opportunities into my TradingView account. The first one which looks technically pretty nice is EURRUB. Pretty soon you can start building your long position on EURRUB and it starts from the round number 70. Obviously, do your own research, read fundamentals and etc. Technical criteria are: 1. Previously worked resistance becomes support. In 2017, this level worked 2 to 3* times as a resistance level. Actually, it has worked also as a support level - in 2016 July and 2015 October-November 2. The round number 70 should act as a support level 3. The black trendlines make this wide support area much stronger 4. Weekly EMA200 acts as a support level. 5. Minor trendline (blue) third touch matching exactly with the blue box. This minor trendline is also a lower trendline from the bullish chart pattern "Falling Wedge". It is just information because patterns are only then valid when the breakout has occurred! 6.(!) Wait for a bullish candlestick formation to be more secure. As said, do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to build your long position! Please, take a second to support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You! Best regards, Vaido
Long
by VaidoVeek
1
Daily MOEX Russia stock market Index forecast analysis22-Jul Price trend forecast timing analysis based on pretiming algorithm of Supply-Demand(S&D) strength. Investing position: In Falling section of high risk & low profit S&D strength Trend: In the midst of a downward trend of strong downward momentum price flow marked by temporary rises and strong falls. Today's S&D strength Flow: Supply-Demand(S&D) strength flow appropriate to the current trend. View forecasts shape of candlestick 10 days in the future: www.pretiming.com Forecast D+1 Candlestick Color : RED Candlestick %D+1 Range forecast: 0.3% (HIGH) ~ -0.6% (LOW), -0.2% (CLOSE) %AVG in case of rising: 0.7% (HIGH) ~ -0.3% (LOW), 0.4% (CLOSE) %AVG in case of falling: 0.2% (HIGH) ~ -0.8% (LOW), -0.5% (CLOSE)
RUS:IRUS
by pretiming
FOREX, ruble, August and Jaroslaw KosatyThe fact that there was no fundamental force majeure yesterday led to the “calm” Wednesday. In fact, the last statistics outcome prepared in line with forecasts as well as UK inflation rate. After crossing the new local Minimum yesterday, the pound “changed the situation” in the afternoon. So, we recommend looking for points for its buying. Traditionally we cannot but mention Mr Trump’s Twitter account which he uses as “negotiation table”. “We have a long way to go as far as tariffs where China is concerned, if we want. We have another $325 billion we can put a tariff on, if we want,” Trump said. As the result Gold at 1430. So, we recoomend to sell gold from these points, and buy it from these 1400. As for the Russian ruble sellings. Well, August is not “the luckiest” month for the ruble. “ August's” Force majeure situations, as well as fundamental negative have affected the ruble. Start with the August Coup (1991) and default (1998) to Kursk submarine disaster and Russian-Georgian (2008) and Russian-Ukrainian wars (2014). In this light, Jaroslaw Kosaty, a currency strategist at Poland’s largest bank, sees the currency sinking about 9% against the dollar by the end of the year. His forecast of 69 rubles per dollar. The reason is that Bank of Russia’s switch to monetary easing. Therefore we recommend selling Russian ruble. The Federal Reserve abandoned foreign-exchange-market intervention. Recall that a strong dollar is on Trump’s way. As a result, his verbal attacks are becoming more aggressive and let the markets suspect that the United States will move from something in mind to something in kind. Treasury can intervene without the Federal Reserve's agreement (2000). We are waiting to see if it happens again. But the rick factor exists. The most interesting trading option is short dollar. Therefore, we continue to recommend looking for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market. Our trading preferences for today are as follows: sell US dollar, oil, ruble and gold, but buy the pound.
Long
by Trade24Fx
G-20 meeting, OPEC meeting & rubleThe last week was not that calm. The Fed on Wednesday it clear that they are ready to reduce the interest rate. Some of the analysts are predicting the dollar falls in the near future by 5 - 10 %. So, we are looking for dollar selling points this week. On Friday the ruble buyers experienced an unpleasant moment when the ruble literary has collapsed and lost 1 % of its value. The reason is that US lawmakers are proposing to impose sanctions against the public debt of the Russian Federation in response to Russia's intervention in the elections. Recall, we recommend to sell the ruble and the current price looks extremely attractive. As for the new sanctions, for now, this is just talking, but the reaction the ruble reaction shows that it is vulnerable even to simple rumors. Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt are confirmed as the final two. Boris Johnson has led the voting so far, achieving more votes each time. A winner will be picked up in a month's time. And in the meantime, the candidates are In the process of rolling out their campaigns. The upcoming week is unlikely to be an easy one. The important macroeconomic statistics will be published (US GDP data also), two important events for financial markets will take place this week. This is the OPEC meeting, where the fate of OPEC + №2 should be decided. Accordingly, the oil market could get a boost for several months. And, of course, the G-20 meeting. First of all, we are expecting a signal about the end of the trade war. By the way, if such a signal appears, we strongly recommend paying attention to gold, which gets very high and is clearly ready to fall down. Our trading preferences for the week have changed: we will continue to look for points for selling the US dollar against the Japanese yen, the euro and the pound. But with gold purchases in the week, we slow down, at least, aggressive ones. We expect a correction in gold and prepare for its sale. The oil trade is paused, for the time being - until OPEC meeting result announcement. The ruble sales not only did not lose its relevance but also became the most attractive.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Pound is growth leader, dollar and ruble in danger and FEDThe best day for the pound over the past six weeks. Sum up, the result of its growth was the highest among the 30 other currencies on FOREX. Causes - a general correction in dollar pairs and possibility of Brexit progress. It is about the progress in the negotiations between Government and the leaders of the opposition Labor Party. As a result, by the middle of the next week, a compromise on Brexit may appear. In addition, a decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the UK will be announced on Thursday. But we will talk about it tomorrow. Today, the Fed’s Open Market Operations Committee will announce its decision. With a 98% probability, the rate will remain unchanged. That is characteristic 2% put on a decrease in the rate. Obviously, the rate change is not worth waiting. But in general, if you look at the likelihood of lowering the rate until the end of the year, then the tendency is rather “dovish”: the probability that by the end of the year the rate will be decreased is 60-70%. What does this mean for the dollar? - Nothing good. Yesterday's sales - further proof of that. The weak inflation component in the latest report on US GDP indicates that the expectations of a rate hike in 2019 by the Fed are not that baseless. Thus, yesterday the markets were discounted under a possible "pigeon" tone by the Fed. Note that as a reason for the Fed’s optimism is the latest figures for US GDP (they are much higher than forecasts). So the results are quite unpredictable in terms of the Central Bank’s comments. Our position as a whole is to sell the dollar. But, it will need to be adjusted in the process of results announcement. Returning to the events of yesterday, we should note relatively good data on the Eurozone GDP (exceeded forecasts: 0.4%, with market expectations averaging 0.3%). But the GDP of Canada frankly disappointed: in February, the indicator fell by 0.1%. In addition, the situation with unemployment in the Eurozone was better than experts' expectations (7.7%, with a forecast of 7.8%). In this light, yesterday's growth of EURUSD above 1.12 can be considered as logical. Democratic Leader Senator Chuck Schumer called on the United States to impose additional sanctions against Russia. And today, in the US Congress should pass a hearing on Russia, which could result in another tightening of sanctions. As for our positions, today we are continuing to look for points for the dollar sales against the euro, pound, as well as the Australian and Canadian dollars. In addition, we will buy gold, as well as sell oil and the Russian ruble on the intraday basis.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Where investors will run to? OPEC +, it’s time to buy euroQuite unclear statistics on personal income and expenses in the United States appeared on Monday. The first one came out worse than expected, and the second - better. In addition, Europe has reported a low level of consumer confidence. Firstly, the euro is very cheap, and secondly, today we are waiting for data on the GDP of the Eurozone and a data block for Germany. Societe Generale recommends analysts to buy EURUSD with targets of 1.16. The reason - hopes for improving the economic situation in the Eurozone. Nouriel Roubini (American economist, a professor at NYU's Stern School of Business) broke out with apocalyptic predictions about the future recession in the global economy and the early flight of investors into safe assets. Among the possible triggers of global problems, Roubini calls the huge debts accumulated by countries, especially the US, trade wars between the US and China, the bad shape of the Eurozone economy, the political risks of developing countries (Turkey, Venezuela, Iran, Brazil, etc.), as well as unpredictable Trump’s actions on the eve of the 2020 elections in the United States. In this light, we recall our recommendations for buying gold. If investors run, then this is determined by one of their goals. Meanwhile, OPEC + is trying to stop the start of the correction in the oil market. In particular, Russian President Putin announced the fulfillment of the OPEC + deal, none of the participating countries raised the question of whether to withdraw from the deal as well. Recall the deal expires in June. And its non-renewal is fraught with the appearance on the market of an additional 1.2 million b / d. This will definitely lead to a sharp decline in oil prices. Our position on oil this week is unchanged - we look forward to the start of the correction and recommend selling the asset. Another reason for reflection was the information that more than one-third of the 80 respondents (managers at Central Banks owning assets of € 7 trillion) made it clear that they are ready to reduce the share of British assets under their personal control (the results of a Central Banking Publications survey). Given that we are talking about tens of billions of pounds that could potentially be spilled onto the market, this news is very negative for pound buyers. However, while there are no facts, it’s obviously premature to panic. As for our positions, today we are continuing to look for points for selling the dollar against the euro, pound, as well as the Australian and Canadian dollars. In addition, we will buy gold, as well as sell oil and the Russian ruble on the intraday basis.
Long
by Trade24Fx
USD bonds arbitrage opportunity: long RUSB short FXRULSE:RUSB is an ETF on 22 investment grade Russian USD denominated eurobonds. At current moment RUSB trades at significant discount to its own basket. This is a unique buying opportunity that can be captured either by long only investrors or by arbitrageurs. In case of long only - buy at 23.90 and hold enjoying the recovery of Russian eurobonds or put a sell order above fair value being 24.35 to earn about 2% absolute only on spread in approximately a month time plus appreciation of Russian eurobonds. For arbitrageurs - buy RUSB, short FXRU, to capture the spread.
R
by ITIFunds