Russia - RTS$ Index - Does this suggest War will go end? Does this suggest War will go end?
A multi-year triangle gives us a clue.
Triangles are one of the most recognizable patterns in the Elliott Wave Principle. As with all wave patterns, they occur at every time scale and the large-degree triangles are especially interesting because they often contain a notable socionomic element.
Large-degree triangles in rallies are bear markets. Sideways movement in nominal terms means that, with consumer price inflation generally positive, in real terms, market value is being lost. Large-degree triangles during stock market rallies are manifestations of a negative social mood. It’s not surprising, therefore, that the ends of triangles often correspond with a news event of a social action that has been driven by this negative mood.
The chart above shows the Russian Trading System Index. This is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of 50 Russian stocks traded on the Moscow Exchange, calculated in U.S. dollars. As such, it takes into account the performance of the Russian ruble as well as the stock market. Since 2008, the index appears to have traced out a multi-year triangle, with the final wave ((E)) down now in operation.
Notice that it was towards the end of the decline in wave ((C)) of the triangle that Russia made its first incursion into Ukraine in August 2014, escalating it further in November of that year.
Fast forward to 2022, and with over 190,000 Russian troops in on Ukraine, another incursion happened. Nevertheless, Russian President Putin states that he has no intention to invade other European countries.
Given the Elliott wave pattern, and what appears to be the waxing anger of the final wave lower in social mood, we take those statements with a bucket-full of salt. This sociometer is anticipating that a dramatic social action it's coming to an end?
