MOEX Rebounds: Domestic Power Overcomes Geopolitical HeadwindsThe MOEX Index in Russia exhibits surprising resilience, recovering to pre-war levels in May 2024. This upswing stems from a confluence of factors:
* **Shifting Investment Landscape:** Western sanctions have curbed foreign participation, but a surge in domestic retail investment and capital inflows from allied countries has mitigated the impact.
* **Robust Corporate Performance:** Energy companies, buoyed by high global prices, report strong financials. Increased revenue and profitability allow for continued investment and dividend payouts, attracting domestic investors.
* **Renewed IPO Activity:** Tentative signs of a revival in domestic IPO activity suggest a cautious return of investor confidence in the Russian market.
However, challenges remain:
* **Sanctions and Foreign Investment:** The full impact of sanctions is yet to be determined. Restricted foreign investment limits market liquidity, potentially hindering future growth. Additionally, sectors reliant on foreign technology may face long-term constraints.
* **Geopolitical Uncertainty and Military Spending:** The ongoing war in Ukraine and associated geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on the Russian economy. While increased military spending benefits some sectors in the short term, it could strain the treasury in the long run.
**Turkey's Potential Role in Sanctions Busting:**
The article discusses a concerning development: Turkey's potential role in facilitating the re-export of Russian oil products to Europe. This practice, if confirmed, could undermine sanctions aimed at limiting Russia's war chest. Further investigation and potential enforcement actions may be required.
**Trade Idea: Long MOEX**
This analysis suggests a long position on MOEX.
* **Entry:** 3535.87
* **Target Profits (T.P.):** 3724.67, 3992.71, 4300.33, etc. (as listed in your original article)
* **Stop Loss (S.L.):** 3079.14
**Conclusion:**
The MOEX recovery is a fascinating case study. While domestic factors drive the market in the short term, the long-term trajectory hinges on the evolving geopolitical landscape, the effectiveness of sanctions, and the overall health of the Russian economy. The potential for Turkish involvement in sanctions circumvention adds another layer of complexity.
Russianmarket
YNDX Stock: Unveiling Bullish Secrets Amidst Restructuring DelayProfessional Technical Analysis for YNDX Stock : Navigating Bullish Momentum Amidst Restructuring News
Introduction:
The recent restructuring announcement by Yandex, the tech giant, has triggered speculation and rumors, introducing an intriguing dynamic to the YNDX stock landscape. This professional technical analysis aims to decipher the implications of the delayed restructuring deal and assess the emerging bullish momentum.
Market News and Restructuring Delay:
The article on Investing.com ( www.investing.com ) provides insights into the anticipated delay of Yandex's restructuring deal until early 2024. This development has sparked market speculation and fueled rumors, adding an element of uncertainty to YNDX stock.
Technical Analysis - Bullish Momentum:
Post the restructuring delay announcement on the 25th, a surge of bullish momentum has been detected on the weekly timeframe for YNDX stock. A breakout candle has emerged, signaling a potential continuation of an ascending triangle pattern towards the 3110.6 mark. This pattern suggests a positive outlook, and traders are advised to monitor the developments closely.
Key Price Levels to Watch:
Take Profit at $2497.0 : The initial target for profit-taking aligns with the ascending triangle's breakout, presenting an opportunity for traders to capitalize on the bullish momentum.
Take Profit at $2613.8 : As the momentum builds, the second profit-taking level serves as a strategic point to secure gains, anticipating further upward movement in YNDX stock.
Take Profit at $2733.4 : The third and final profit-taking level represents a calculated exit point, considering the evolving market dynamics and the ascending triangle pattern's potential continuation.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the delay in Yandex's restructuring deal has introduced an element of uncertainty, sparking rumors and speculation in the market. The subsequent surge in bullish momentum, particularly evident on the weekly timeframe, paints a positive picture for YNDX stock. Traders are advised to exercise caution and closely monitor the ascending triangle pattern's development, with the identified profit-taking levels serving as strategic guides in navigating this dynamic market landscape.
Russia - RTS$ Index - Does this suggest War will go end? Does this suggest War will go end?
A multi-year triangle gives us a clue.
Triangles are one of the most recognizable patterns in the Elliott Wave Principle. As with all wave patterns, they occur at every time scale and the large-degree triangles are especially interesting because they often contain a notable socionomic element.
Large-degree triangles in rallies are bear markets. Sideways movement in nominal terms means that, with consumer price inflation generally positive, in real terms, market value is being lost. Large-degree triangles during stock market rallies are manifestations of a negative social mood. It’s not surprising, therefore, that the ends of triangles often correspond with a news event of a social action that has been driven by this negative mood.
The chart above shows the Russian Trading System Index. This is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of 50 Russian stocks traded on the Moscow Exchange, calculated in U.S. dollars. As such, it takes into account the performance of the Russian ruble as well as the stock market. Since 2008, the index appears to have traced out a multi-year triangle, with the final wave ((E)) down now in operation.
Notice that it was towards the end of the decline in wave ((C)) of the triangle that Russia made its first incursion into Ukraine in August 2014, escalating it further in November of that year.
Fast forward to 2022, and with over 190,000 Russian troops in on Ukraine, another incursion happened. Nevertheless, Russian President Putin states that he has no intention to invade other European countries.
Given the Elliott wave pattern, and what appears to be the waxing anger of the final wave lower in social mood, we take those statements with a bucket-full of salt. This sociometer is anticipating that a dramatic social action it's coming to an end?
MOEX reopens after 1 month haltedImportant restrictions as Moscow's Exchange reopens 4 hours a day:
- Short-selling banned
- Selling of shares banned for foreign investors
- Only 33 stocks available for trading
After being halted for 1 month, the Russian market reopens with important restrictions. Also, many institutional brokers from the EU and other NATO countries banned trading on Russian assets. From the technical analysis perspective, it's impossible to assess accurate price movement with so many restrictions and market manipulation by the Russian Federal Bank that is trying to avoid a market crash. So far, the measures have been successful and the aim is to keep holding the market until this crisis is resolved. The downtrend though, it's still there with an important resistance line, even with short-selling banned and other restrictions, Russian investors could panic and sell at market. This is absolutely historic.
The US Markets Have Not Fallen yet
It's make me angry! All this situation around Ukraine. I'm from Russia and I'm not ashamed of it. Although there has come a period that it is not safe to be Russian now. And I'm worried about my kids because their mama is Russian. My husband from Germany and we live in Germany now and it is here that anti-Russian sentiments are especially strong!
I always considered myself intelligent and thoughtful, it's not for nothing that I work as a financial analyst. But now I feel confused.
If I would stay in my country I believe that I will have more opportunities to use this situation but I'm here. I'm sure that european governments understand what they doing. And also they represent what kind of reverse effect sanctions against Russia will give them.
The United States has imposed a ban on the import of oil, a number of petroleum products, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal from the Russian Federation. The British Foreign Ministry called on Europe to extend sanctions on oil and gas from Russia.
I will not say that many people will lose their jobs in Russia because of sanctions, and life in general will become more expensive. But it will be hard in Europe, too.
Have you seen gasoline prices yet? In Germany, the cost of 1 liter has increased to 2.30 euros, in the Netherlands it is already 2.5 euros. Ads appeared in stores stating that there are restrictions on buying products in one hand. And it is only beginning…
If you ask how did the sanctions affect me? I will answer that for the third week my work has been frozen because there are no traiding in russian stock markets. Some of the clients I work with are also from Russia, their accounts are also blocked, my bank card is disconnected from SWIFT and I can no longer use it until I return to Russia.
What else? Oh, yes, the dollar and euro exchange rates against the ruble have increased by 38% and 30% over the past two weeks.
The news that I read and analyze in Russia and Europe differ as black and white. I will not say who is right, the truth is in the middle. But why does everyone forget and do not want to admit that this whole situation in Ukraine happened thanks to the support of America? And that the Russians have been oppressed for 8 years? And that in general, the United States has always benefited from war on the territory of other countries and it is convenient to write off miscalculations and failures in the economy under this idea.
I apologize for this post, but I can't stay silent anymore. I want other people to think about what is really happening and that Russia is not the first country to face an economic blockade, there were Iran and Venezuela. So the point, as always, is who benefits from it!
The US markets have not fallen yet, look at the weekly chart of the S& P500 and remove all illusions, the nearest target is 3600-3800 points.
Russian stocks - good chance for risky investorsRussian stocks fall amid growing tensions in Russian-Ukrainian relations. Moscow Exchange Index ( MOEX , RUB) is short-term oversold and trying to bounce off support area 2850-2900. There is no divergence on MACD , so we view current decline as a correction, but not reversal.
We expect recovery of MOEX Index by 40-50% within 2-4 months.
IMPORTANT TO WAIT FOR BREAK - GAZP GAZPROM - 30 MN - MY IDEAThank you for your likes! Really appreciated! Please also share to benefit as many people as possible!
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GAZP GAZPROM price is ranging after a long run down and some consolidation, finding a balance now.
The trend can change if the market evolve out of the boundaries illustrated by the two parallel blue lines acting as natural support and resistance.
If you are already in the spot, taking small profit to get out and waiting a better opportunity would be in line with the probability of seeing the market breaking the lines and creating a chance to understand in which direction you should invest.
WAITING FOR BREAK!
RTSI: Confirmed long term bullish break out.The Russian stock market has crossed above its long term (since 2008) long term bearish pattern this March and is currently aiming at the 1,340 1W Resistance. There is potential that the former Lower High trend line will turn into support now. Our long term target on this market is 1,500.
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