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Russianruble

USDRUB can top around 93.500 but is due for a sharp correction.This is the much talked about (due to the pending sanctions against Russia) USDRUB pair on the 1W time-frame. As you see, it follows a very structured pattern within a multi-year bullish Channel. The price tops every time above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension and one Fibonacci extension higher in the Channel than the previous Higher High. The sequence indicates that the next Higher High should be around 93.500. It is still a solid buy on the short-term but if the Cycle continues to repeat this pattern, then is due for a correction on the long-term back to Fib 1.0. Trade according to your horizon and risk tolerance. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
4
USDRUB Russian ruble is no longer aligned to Crude Oil priceI don`t want to be prophetic, but does George Soros ( 91 years), The Greatest Speculator of all time, want to be remembered as The Man Broke the Bank of Russia too? Developments in Kazakhstan and NATO supporting Ukraine to defend against an invasion from Russia are bad signs for the ruble. US, UK and other officials started the evacuation of their embassy employees Kyiv. The US, UK and other NATO members warned Russia about the heavy sanctions bombardment in case the tension with Ukraine escalates. Bank of Russia wants Full Ban on Crypto, calling Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme. Russia's central bank consider trading, mining and crypto usage illegal. the Russian Ministry of Finance also announced a halt of foreign currency purchases, to withhold the further downslide of the ruble. I see an imminent breakout of usd to all time high if the tensions escalates. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Long
by TopgOptions
7
$USDRUB - Could drop to 70.5Hi guys! 👋🏻 🔔 Globally, oil prices soar, as lockdown restrictions ease and airlines resume operations. Crude is traded near $80 and Brent already surpassed the $83 per barrel mark. Russia is World’s third largest oil supplier. 🔔 Through the year, the Russian Ministry of finance continued its streak of foreign currency and gold purchases. These factors support the strengthening of ruble at least until the end of the year, while the growing foreign currency portfolio will act as a great instrument for Russia to keep the USD/RUB rate within the range of their interest. 🔔 From the technical point of view, USD/RUB also looks bearish for now. There is a descending channel on a daily USD/RUB chart. The 70.5 support area is an important level to watch, as it will be decisive for the next move of USD/RUB. Based on the rules of the falling wedge pattern, the price must complete the 5 wave move and reverse, as it’s a trend reversal pattern. 🔔 However, if the price drops below 70.5 which might happen due to several reasons, interest hike risk, weakening the US Dollar, soaring oil and gas prices. Russia sealing gas export deals with other EU countries, then USD/RUB might proceed down to 68 and 67 as seen on a weekly chart below. 🔔 The pressure on the US Dollar index is high as well, the most anticipated NFP data release today. These data will draw a further course of the US Dollar index, which has already tested a severe resistance zone at 94.3. ✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻 If you like the idea hit the 👍🏻 button, follow me for more ideas.
Short
by azizelliott
2
Wave of pessimismFollow this link, where I explained my vision of USD/RUB EUR/USD EUR/RUB. Now a little more about EUR/RUB. We have almost reached the level of the 4th wave, according to the theory, at this level, there is the greatest probability of a rebound. The word "almost" spoils everything(we have almost reached this level earlier). Because of the "almost", I now have less confidence that the 3rd wave is starting now. But, in my opinion, it is safer to wait out a small correction.
by loco_mango
Wave of pessimismThose who follow my ideas know that I have been waiting for the growth of the euro for a long time. I was more pessimistic about the dollar. Now, it seems to me, the rebound will continue. I do not know whether it will be big or small(the graph shows two main options). Due to the EUR / USD exchange rate, I assume that a 5-wave structure will begin on the EUR/RUB chart, or the correction will continue a little, and then growth will begin, and we will not move beyond the highest point of the USD/RUB chart.
by loco_mango
Russian Ruble - Higher Inflation data to trigger RUBLE Buying Fundamentals Today's Russian inflation data could increase market bets of an interest rate hike by the Russian central bank in August. Against low-interest-rate yielding currencies like the U.S Dollar and Euro, we could see a stronger Ruble as long as the risk of U.S sanctions on Russia does not persist. Key Points: Russia’s inflation currently stands at 5.50%. This overshoots the central bank's inflation target of 4.00% Markets betting on a rate hike by the Russian Central Bank August from 5.00% to 6.00% Russian 10 Year Bond Yield sits at 7.20%. Higher Inflation data could push up bond yields are cause the currency to strengthen. What To Watch Russian Employment Data & Unemployment Rate Oil Prices Inflation Rate Trade Idea’s Higher Inflation - Buy RUB Technicals RUB at major support levels against EUR @ 88.00 RUB at major support levels against USD @ 72.00 ATR Volatility USD/RUB 5.64% EUR/RUB 5.17%
Short
by KayansMarkets
Crude Oil - Buy Analysis Oil continues its bullish advance as Oil demand comes roaring back as governments across the world vaccinate their domestic populations and set up a global demand increase for Oil as OPEC keeps supply limited. Investments banks such as Goldman Sach's have an extremely bullish view on the commodity, calling for Oil to enter a super cycle. In this video I look at Macroeconomic data that predicts Oil prices and we also look at Volatility to know where the buying opportunities are if Oil continues its bullish trend.
TVC:UKOILLong
by KayansMarkets
USD/RUB, targeting 77.174 (big move coming)Backdrop Rapidly escalating trade war tensions between US and China and concerns on a potential second wave of covid-19 continue to linger. President Putin faces many challenges domestically, and his policies could ultimately impact the direction on the ruble. Trouble at home Russia is struggling to contain covid-19 at home and is on track to remain top 3 in the number of confirmed cases. While the death toll of 3,388 is significantly lower than most EU countries, I would take this figure with a grain of salt. In fact, the same view can be applied across all countries as every government classifies the deceased in a different way. Nevertheless, over the past month, President Putin announced the gradual easing of restrictions, with local governors given the ability to decide on implementations and timelines. This is slightly uncommon given how tight Putin has run his ship, but also a strategic move on his part given that he could shift the blame on local governors should there be a rise in infections. It's noteworthy that President Putin's approval rating is already at its lowest since his inauguration in 1999. Given that Russia is heading towards its most serious recession since 1998, his base of support could decline further in the next several months. Putin's administration can take all the credit if easing plans bode well for the economy. China - Catch 22 Russia has built strong ties with China over the past decade amid deteriorating relationships with the West. President Putin cannot afford to take the same stance as US President Trump on blaming China's alleged mishandling of covid-19 given China is its biggest strategic partner and hedge against the US and EU. What can Russia do? Putin could either divert attention by increasing geopolitical tensions (vis-a-vis Crimea type of move). However, such a bold strategy could do more harm than good. The only way out seems to be shifting focus towards structural and regulatory reforms, and reducing corruption. In fact, there is more incentive to diversify its economy now given the sharp drop in oil prices. However, Putin's administration has yet to deploy massive fiscal support (as seen by other countries). I suspect this will come towards the end of the year; the reluctance may have to do with timing of the referendum (his political plan is to remain as Russia's president potentially until 2036). Rate cut implications Last month, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) lowered its rate by 50 bps to 5.50% in line with market expectations, while signaling for more cuts to come to reduce recessionary risks. The pair retreated in response to CBR's dovishness and rate cut. At this stage, I don't see rate cuts as a big deal given every central bank is easing, so long as the CBR's word remains credible. If the latter does not hold, currency interventions may be required to stop RUB depreciation. Technical analysis I believe we are in favor of a move higher in the pair as we breakout from a descending triangle pattern. There are plenty of shorter time frame technical analysis on the pair - that's not the ultimate focus here, but rather to take a directional view based on fundamental analysis. Risks / opportunities On the contrary, RUB could be one of the most attractive EM plays if Putin's administration can weather the storm and implement comprehensive economic reforms. Currently, I am not of that bullish view, particularly on the backdrop of covid-19, while any heightened tensions between the US and China is a negative for RUB. As such, targeting near April highs of 77.174 as an initial target with stop loss set (at 69.946) under the support zone of around 72.700.
Long
by Miloslaw
6