Get started

Russianruble

What does a market reaction to the Fed's decision say?Since yesterday, by and large, was the first full day of working out the Fed’s emergency decision to lower the rate by 0.5%, today some results can be summed up. And they are generally disappointing for optimists. In theory, stock markets should have perked up and provoked a sharp increase in stock indices. But this did not happen, that is, there was growth, but not at the scale that could be expected. In theory, the pressure on the dollar should have intensified. But yesterday, the Dollar Index rose. In theory, the Fear Index was to drop significantly. But according to the results of yesterday, the decrease was insignificant. What are all these signals talking about? The magic of Central banks no longer works the way it used to. Lower rates no longer automatically resolve existing problems. And this is a very alarming signal for stock market buyers, gold sellers, and other optimists. It seems that the bubble is nevertheless broken and the air, despite all the efforts of its creators, is gradually coming out. In general, monetary policy has exhausted itself and this is an extremely alarming signal: if the situation worsens, it will not be possible to resolve the situation with the usual methods. The consequences of the coronavirus have not even begun to appear, and Nasdaq is quoted 10% below the maximum and, it seems, can no longer grow with the certainty with which it was literally a couple of weeks ago. So in everything that happens, we see the strongest confirmation of our basic investment ideas: sales on world stock markets, and especially on the US stock market; gold purchases and sales of risky assets (such as the Russian ruble). But back to the events of yesterday, which was very full of news. The Bank of Canada lowered the rate immediately by 0.5%. The Canadian dollar obediently worked this out, losing about 100 points paired with the dollar. But in general, the reaction was relatively calm at such a massive reduction in rates. US employment data from ADP turned out to be quite good: +183K with a forecast of +170K. What sets in a positive mood against the dollar ahead of Friday's official statistics. The ISM Index in the non-productive sphere also pleasantly surprised: 57.3 points with a forecast of 54.8 points. But the Eurozone indices traditionally fell short of expectations and for the most part, came out worse than forecasts. Well, the results of super-Tuesday played into the hands of the dollar, on which Biden won quite unexpectedly, who is considered a more adequate option from the Democrats as opposed to the “left” Sanders. In general, our desire to sell a pair of EURUSD intensified up to the recommendation to sell the pair from the current ones with the addition of any attempt to grow. Oil stocks in the United States have grown quite slightly, but all the attention of oil market participants has been riveted to the OPEC meeting and OPEC+ decisions. It is very likely that today some specific information will appear that could provoke strong movements in the oil market. If OPEC+ decides on additional reductions (ideally about 1 million b/d), oil has a chance of growth. The main stumbling block is Russia and its unwillingness to scale up the reduction.
by Trade24Fx
Oil and world are in danger, a pound in anticipationTraditionally, we start the review with news about the coronavirus epidemic. Once again, we note that the matter is even on its scale - thousands of times more people die from ordinary flu, and hundreds of thousands of times more get sick each year. The point is the problems that this epidemic has on the global economy. A number of key industrial centers in China have been completely or partially idle for the third week. Each such day is further destruction of the global supply chain, and if there are still enough stocks in warehouses, then every day the risk of a shortage of materials to continue the activities of companies becomes higher, as well as the scale of losses. One of the main victims this week maybe oil. We wrote that last week OPEC+ was able to tentatively agree to reduce oil production by another 600K b/d. But yesterday information appeared that Russia could refuse this. And here, even in Libya, the warring parties are close to signing a peace treaty, which is fraught with the return of several hundred thousand barrels per day to the oil market. And all this is happening against the backdrop of a sharp drop in oil demand from China. Not surprisingly, some experts predict an oil drop of at least 10% in the foreseeable future. In general, oil sales this week remain our basic trading idea. Returning to the current figures on the scale of the epidemic, we note that the number of deaths is approaching 1,000, and the number of cases is close to 50,000. Once again, we recall that these are official statistics. The main mass of experts converges in opinion, that the figures are underestimated by several times to several tens of times. In connection with such a development of events, we cannot but recall our recommendation to sell the Russian ruble. The conditions for this are almost ideal, especially when you consider that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lowered the rate again last week and plans to do this further in 2020. Today, in terms of macroeconomic statistics, it will be interesting primarily for the British pound. Data on GDP and industrial production can trigger a surge in volatility in pound pairs. Given that in recent days, the pound was already under strong downward pressure, weak data will almost certainly trigger a new wave of sales. But at the same time, good numbers can give a start for strengthening the pound - points for its purchases are very attractive. In general, today you can try news trading, with pending orders or enter after the news, playing back a fundamental positive or negative.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Effects of the coronavirus grow as panic in marketsThe coronavirus epidemic is gaining momentum. At least, according to statistics. The number of deaths is already close to 100, and the number of cases is close to 3,000. China is forced to react harder. The magnitude of the effects on the economy is growing exponentially. Lunar New Year celebrations are extended for at least 3 more days. Actually, more than one review can be devoted to the chronicles of the coronavirus and attempts to assess their consequences. But we are still more interested in the reaction of financial markets and how to capitalize on this force majeure. Panic in the financial markets after the weekend intensified. The Fear Index (VIX) literally skyrocketed, increasing by more than 40% in a couple of days! So far, everything is developing exactly with our recommendations: safe-haven assets are growing in price, stock markets have rained down, risky assets like the Russian ruble are losing, oil and other commodity assets are continuing to decline. So further deterioration of the epidemic situation will obviously be accompanied by the development of these trends. Therefore, the basic trading plan is still unchanged: we buy gold and the Japanese yen, sell the Russian ruble, sell shares. As for oil (WTI brand), the support we outlined 51.20 +/- is clearly the goal of the current movement. If events will develop as they develop, and the asset will be able to break through this support, then oil sales may well become uncontrolled. But until this happens, 51.20 seems to be a good point for shopping (for aggressive traders, conservative in place, we would wait until the markets calm down). Today, quite important statistics for the United States will be published (orders for durable goods and the level of consumer confidence), but let's be realistic - everyone is not up to it now.
Short
by Trade24Fx
China’s epidemic, Brexit, the ECB, ruble, and oilWednesday was remembered by the next highs in the US stock market. The madness continues, but characteristic is the reluctance of gold to decline against this background. It turns out that buying gold is currently practically risk-free: with an increase in demand for risky assets, it does not fall, but at the same time, any concerns of investors instantly provoke an increase in asset prices. Speaking of investor concerns. The coronavirus epidemic in China seems to be gaining momentum and is at risk of spreading around the world. And although China’s official authorities claim that the situation is under control, there are risks of causing significant economic damage to the Chinese economy. Events take place at the time of the New Year holidays in China, which traditionally attract millions of tourists. In general, the chances of a trend continuing in a slowdown in China's economy are very high. Against such a background, gold purchases continue to be one of our favorite deals to date. Another top deal for us is the purchase of the British pound. The reasons are the same - Brexit is slowly but surely moving towards the implementation of the “soft” scenario, and this is an occasion for the growth of the pound in the region of 1.40. Yesterday, the GBPUSD pair jerked up due to the fact that the House of Lords of the British Parliament approved the Brexit bill. So on January 31, Great Britain will leave the European Union. From February, a transitional period will begin, which will last until the end of 2020. Bank Canals expectedly left the rate unchanged yesterday. However, the Canadian dollar was still under pressure, and the trading tactics proposed by us in yesterday's review worked out 100%. It is a pity that it can hardly be applied today in the case of the euro. The ECB will announce its decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the afternoon. Almost certainly everything will be unchanged. But comments can be quite unexpected. It is about the announcement of the details of the new monetary policy strategy of the Central Bank. As expected, it will include a phasing out of quantitative easing and the era of zero rates. If nothing changes, we do not expect a significant increase in the euro today. Even when changing the strategy of the Central Bank, it’s not about the months, but about the years that will be needed for its practical implementation. Downward pressure has clearly prevailed lately, and aggression on the part of the ECB has not come for years. The Russian ruble continues to decline in the foreign exchange market, but the potential for its reduction has not yet been fully exhausted. It still seems rather vulnerable to us, so we will use any attempts to strengthen the ruble for its sales. Oil yesterday declined quite aggressively and overcame an important level of support, which opens the way to a further decline. Considering that the markets again turned their attention to an oversupply of oil in 2020, we will refrain from aggressive asset purchases for now.
Long
by Trade24Fx
ridethepig | RUB Spot Commentary 2020.01.20Now bull's reserves have been activated and exhausted, the diagonal swing towards the new lows at the key 60 handle is the aim. This momentum play is a characteristic impulsive swing. The moves constitute a great example of the lust to exploit the brilliant effect of technical analysis, because of the accuracy that is endowed with incredible resilience. The first compelling chart shows the highs being set in this monthly swing; the total removal of its lows opened up the same flows in EURRUB: The swings we have just glimpsed at are quite typical and although it will likely not feel necessary here, the importance of in checking the 60 handle for headlines and masses. Mostly only one player benefits from this entire flow, but that is quite sufficient. I expect sellers to show some strength over the coming days and weeks. A lot of talk of few large hands in Oil buying dividends. In any case looking for the infamous 60 target. Thanks as usual for all the support with likes, comments, charts and etc. Jump into the conversation with any questions.
Short
by ridethepig
The week results: many events but few changesThe previous week was rich in important events, some of which can be formally classified as “game changers”, but judging by the dynamics of prices in the financial markets, the game did not undergo any special changes. Let's start with the most global. The United States and China signed documents on the first part of the trade deal. But there was no euphoria - almost immediately it became clear that this was really only the first step towards solving the problem. Hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs remain in force, and harm to the global economy will continue to be done. China's GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2019 was minimal over the past 30 years, which is the best illustration of the previous phrase. Other macroeconomic statistics released last week clearly confirmed this. The UK was the most disastrous data: GDP, industrial production, retail sales - all in the red and much worse than forecasts. Statistics from the US and the Eurozone also did not shine: industrial production in the States and the Eurozone came out in the negative zone. In general, against the backdrop of such statistics, we were once again surprised at new historical highs in the US stock market and became even stronger in our belief in its imminent decline. Madness cannot last forever. We already wrote about Putin’s initiatives and Medvedev’s resignation in Russia. We only note that the sale of the Russian ruble after the sale of shares in the US stock market and gold purchases, in our opinion, is one of the most promising positions in the financial markets as a whole. Speaking of gold. After the gold sellers could not get anything out of the signing of the agreement between the USA and China, we became even more fond of buying this asset both within the day and in the medium term, especially after gold returned above 1550. The Japanese yen, although it looks weakened, also It is a good alternative to gold, but in the foreign exchange market. Speaking about the upcoming week, we note that it promises to be even more interesting. It can be called the "Central Banks Week". The Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada and the ECB will announce their decisions on monetary policy parameters in their countries. And although experts do not expect global changes, given the weak form of the global economy, one can count on fairly “pigeon” sentiments in the ranks of the Central Banks.
Short
by Trade24Fx
The US & China, Russian reforms and an oil situationAfter the United States and China completed the first phase of negotiations, the result of which was not as rosy as many expected, the markets decided to take a break and continued to develop existing trends. Note that the current optimism has exhausted itself. But the negative on the horizon more than enough. Only the first step has been taken. Now the parties need to move on and begin the negotiation process on phase number 2. Given that the first phase was an extremely painful process, we are waiting for a problem on the way to the second. Do not forget also that the first phase still needs to be performed. For example, China must buy hundreds of billions of dollars of agricultural products from the United States. Not the fact that he will do it. Therefore, you should not expect a happy ending in the foreseeable future. Accordingly, we continue to look for points for the purchase of safe-haven assets both within the day and in the medium-term - gold and the Japanese yen. The growing pressure on the oil market is largely due to market concerns. Trade wars have shown themselves to be extremely destructive. Their continuation is further damage to the global economy, which in turn will lead to a decrease in oil demand. Nevertheless, we consider current oil prices favorable for intraday purchases (with small stops). The situation in Iran is very unstable; in Iraq, too, not everything is calm. That is, problems with the supply of oil on the market can arise at any time. In the news plan, the most interesting continued to happen around Russia and the Russian ruble. A more detailed analysis of the situation and our recommendation to sell the Russian ruble we will do in a separate review. In the meantime, we note that many experts perceive the dissolution of the Government and Putin's initiative to amend the Constitution as the next qualitatively new level of the usurpation of power. Which in itself is bad, because it deprives at least some hope of a change in the course and manner of behavior of the Russian Federation in the international arena with all the ensuing in the form of sanctions and the role of the rogue state. As for macroeconomic statistics on Thursday, the main event of the day was the publication of data on retail sales in the United States. The data came out exactly as part of the forecasts. Today, in the news plan, it is interesting with data on China's GDP (released as part of forecasts), as well as retail sales in the UK, inflation in the Eurozone and industrial production in the United States. In general, the day promises to be eventful, which means movements in the foreign exchange market and, accordingly, the possibility of earning.
Long
by Trade24Fx
The end of the positive, pressure on the pound & BoEThe US and China have signed documents for the first phase of the trade deal. It would seem that this has been expected for a very long time and this is an excellent occasion for a mass exodus from safe-haven assets and another injection of capital into risky assets. But it was not there. Gold yesterday was more than comfortable, and the Japanese yen in the foreign exchange market stopped pouring. The reason for this market behavior is that most US tariffs on Chinese goods will continue until the second phase of the agreement is signed. So, we can again recall the slowdown in the global economy as a result of trade wars, and the ghost of a global recession has become more tangible. In general, we continue to recommend the purchase of safe-haven assets. The inability of gold and Japanese yen sellers to use their main reason to intensify the decline in prices for safe-haven assets very clearly signals their weakness. Another pretty important event yesterday was the publication of inflation data from the UK. Unexpectedly, for most experts, inflation slowed to a three-year low (annual consumer price inflation in the UK fell to 1.3% in December from 1.5% in November). Considering that the issue of lowering interest rates by the Bank of England has recently been actively accelerated among analysts, now there are many more reasons for this. Actually, many are waiting for a rate reduction this month. Formally, the pound is a strong bearish signal. But we will not rush to sell it anyway. Recent events show that Brexit has been and remains the main driver of the pound's dynamics. It is news from these fronts that can provoke the formation of directional movement in pound pairs. And since Brexit is going according to plan so far, we see no reason to revise our recommendation for pound purchases intraday and medium-term. Recall that with favorable developments, the growth potential of the pound paired with the dollar is about 1000 points. From yesterday's data, it is worth noting also the weak data on industrial production in the Eurozone: -1.5% with a forecast of -1.0%. In this light, recall that the EUR/JPY pair is still at excellent points of sale. Today, all financial markets are focusing on US retail sales data. We will prepare for weak data, and accordingly, we will look for points for its sales in the foreign exchange market. The best candidate for this role is the USD/JPY pair. We consider the dissolution of the Government in Russia and the plan to redistribute the system of power in the country as an excellent opportunity to sell expensive Russian rubles. The usurpation of power from the point of view of modern history has rarely led to something good for the country's economy.
by Trade24Fx
USDRUB is ON Sale NowAfter the US took an airstrike on Iran and killing its top general, I have been looking for a countercurrency for USD other than Gold and Oil... and so, USDRUB was detected. Moreover, its price action gave us a convincing sell bias as it has successfully broken the weekly 200ma. This set up will be targeting 55.000 psychological level that was previously tested in 2018 with a risk control stop at 65.000 level. I was able to enter my sell order at 62 this Monday, Jan 06, and this pair is already trading at 61.15 as of this writing. My trading plan will be to partially take half my profit at 61 level, and addsome more at 60, letting the original half position and the additional order to ride the selling pressure upto 55 target price. Caveat! Let me know your comments and reactions too.
Short
by BadongDee
Risk insurance, what to do with the dollar, oil and the rubleYesterday's opening brought gold to the highest mark since 2013. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, gold is by far the best hedge against geopolitical risks. We generally agree with this and continue to recommend buying the asset, since we believe that the mark of 1800 is an achievable goal for gold this year. But it is much more promising trading ideas in terms of earnings is the US high-tech sector shares sale of for us. But since we are conducting a separate branch of stock reviews, let's get back to the currency and commodity markets, as well as the news. Key events continue to develop around the conflict between the US and Iran. Key news for today: Soleimani killed (second most important person in Iran); Iran announced impending revenge; Iraq asked US troops to leave the country; Trump announced 52 targets in Iran in response to possible attacks; Iran has completely withdrawn from the nuclear deal. Total, the situation is developing, but so far more horizontally than vertically. The growth of gold and oil is rather an attempt to discount in advance under the escalation of the conflict. Although we prefer from time to time to go against the stream and open reverse positions, for now, we recommend going in the direction of travel. At least, we will definitely continue the purchase of gold. As for oil, its further growth will depend entirely on Iran’s actions. In general, we do not believe in the rapid transition of processes to the terminal stage, which means that we do not believe in further oil growth. But first of all, one should proceed from the facts. Therefore, for the time being, we maintain neutrality in oil. Which, however, it does not stop buying an asset within a day from interesting points, as well as selling it in the absence of tough fundamental contraindications. The Russian ruble is still extremely attractive for sales. So those of our readers who have not sold it yet can do it today. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, attention should be paid to consumer inflation and retail sales in the Eurozone, as well as data from the USA (ISM index of business activity in the services sector, production orders and trade balance).
TVC:NDQLong
by Trade24Fx
The year begins extremely unsuccessfully, so we will earnIn the news plan, the year began extremely unsuccessfully. The elimination of Iranian general Kassem Suleymani (he was the second most important in Iran after the main ayatollah) was headline news. We wrote about in our weekend reviews “Escape to safe-haven Assets Activated: $ 1800 Gold” and “Will the Suleyman Killing Become a Black Swan for the US Stock Market”. Will this event become a real "game-changer" we will see. But the primary reactions of the markets are showing how the events will develop in response to any the conflict escalation. Gold will hit 1800. Oil, if Iran decides to block the Strait of Hormuz, will continue to grow. Stock markets rush down. So it’s possible and even necessary to earn. Weak data on business activity indices were shown from all around the world. But the main event was the publication of the US Manufacturing Sector Index, which fell to a 10-year low. So our expectations of sales in the US stock market have the background. Our basic position - recommendations to sell the US dollar. In December, the dollar lost about 2%: this was the maximum monthly decline over the past 2 years. Weak data and the threat of collapse of price bubbles in different segments of the US financial market will push the Fed to further lower rates and continue to inject money through repo markets or new quantitative easing programs. Which will inevitably provoke a new round of dollar weakness? So we will buy the USDRUB in the future. Selling the Russian ruble from current points is a great opportunity, despite our expectations of dollar weakness. This week the statistics on the US labour market is expected to be published. And this is a guaranteed surge of volatility and a great opportunity for making money. But we will talk about this later.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Thin market and statistical arbitrage in safe-haven assetsThe period of the Christmas holidays is traditionally characterized by low liquidity in the financial markets (so-called “thin market”). So you can increase the level of aggressiveness in trading to the maximum due to the relatively insignificant volatility. But at the same time, the probability of flash crashes and sharp inexplicable jumps in volatility during such periods is maximum. We have not noticed any flash crashes on this Christmas, however, strange movements were present. Dynamics of safe-haven assets during Christmas week, for example. Gold has been growing steadily that day and consolidated above 1510. At the same time, the Japanese yen is under pressure and buyers tried to break through the resistance level at 109.60. Well, yen rate dynamics could be explained by Trump’s announcement that an official ceremony of signing an interim trade agreement between the United States and China will be held soon. But the growth of gold, in this case, is illogical. Who is right in the end: gold or the yen - we will see. And we have a trading idea about this. This is the so-called statistical arbitrage. The correlation level between gold and the Japanese yen in 2019 was quite high. That is, statistically, they should change synchronously. Now there is a desynchronization (divergence). It can be eliminated either if gold drops sharply, and the yen remains unchanged, or the yen rises sharply with gold remains at the same level. Both of these options guarantee earnings if you simultaneously sell gold and buy the Japanese yen. And finally, another excellent trading opportunity - sale of the Russian ruble. For those who are already in the pair's purchases, we would recommend adding twice the volume.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Trump Impeachment, infernal sanctions, BoE & BoJUS President Donald Trump has been impeached by the Democratic-led House of Representatives for obstruction of Congress and abuse of power related to his dealings with Ukraine. The votes made Trump only the third president in United States history to be impeached and set the stage for a likely trial in the Republican-led Senate in January. This event has already been included in current prices and moods in the financial markets. Note, the fate of Trump is in the hands of the Senate, and there are 2/3 of the Republicans, so, Trump is not in danger. Nevertheless, we cannot but note that our already strong desire to sell the dollar after such news only intensified. After a volatile market on Tuesday, Wednesday became a respite day. But today there is a possibility of the return of strong movements in pound pairs in the foreign exchange market. It is about the announcement of the results of the Bank of England. Experts expect the parameters of monetary policy in the country to remain unchanged. In general, this will be in line with the current mood of the leading Central banks in the world, which have taken a break and are following the development of events. So, surprises should be expected only from Mark Carney’s comments. Our expectations and a trading plan for today. As the pound sales dwindled yesterday. The markets have calmed down. So you can not be afraid of a crazy panic wave, which will be able to absorb our position beneath. Therefore, today we are returning to the idea of buying a pound both on the intraday and in the medium-term positions. The EU and Johnson’s comments could provoke local outbursts of volatility, and the direction of the price dynamics of the pound will be determined by the nature of information injections. But if you sit and wait for this kind of information, then you can freeze trading activity at all. So do not be afraid of opening the trade - the only restriction taking into account current realities is setting up the stops for each of the trade. Recall that we believe that the pound’s real value is 500, or even 1000 pips more expensive, which means buying is a promising trading idea. Among other trading ideas, we note simply excellent points for the sale of the Russian ruble. The fact is that yesterday the relevant committee of the US Senate approved sanctions against Russia for interfering in the elections. We are talking about the so-called "hellish sanctions." Of course, the bill still needs to be voted on and given to Trump for signature, so it is still a long way from implementation. The fact that the process is in progress cannot but put pressure on the ruble. That is why its current price is a gift that is simply a sin to refuse from. But in order to make this position more balanced, we recommend using oil purchases as a hedge. Actually, the ruble is growing because of oil growth. Even after the announcement of the OPEC + decision to increase production cuts, we recommend buying oil. So far, the dynamics of the asset fully justify this recommendation, which testifies in favour of our correct understanding of the situation. The Bank of Japan has already announced its decision. The expected monetary policy parameters remained unchanged. Therefore we purchase the Japanese yen. Low volatility, coupled with the USDJPY near to the top of the medium-term range, makes the deal quite profitable on the other hand with very limited risks. That is, sales of the USDJPY from 109.60 with stops above 109.90 and minimum profits of about 108.50 (or even 107.30) make the deal extremely interesting.
by Trade24Fx
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2019.02.12Here we go for a round of EM FX market updates and with Oil on the move first up USDRUB. After the doldrums of Thanksgiving liquidity is starting to enter back into play, although with market out of position there is no need to overload exposure. The USD tide is turning and clients here are pressing the buy side on RUB crosses to play the dollar sell-off. More activity coming with NY session, a good level to pick up offers as the cross drives through technical momentum at 64.3x. Best of luck all those in RUB
Short
by ridethepig
3
What to expect this week: main events and our recommendationsThe volatility in the foreign exchange market reached its minimum in recent years. The VIX Fear Index was also confidently at the bottom. The absence of significant events entailed the absence of strong movements in the foreign exchange market. Friday perhaps was the exception. Another weak statistics from the Eurozone and the UK contributed to the activation of sellers of the euro and the pound. The main concern for the markets was the adoption by the US Congress of an act in support of protesters in Hong Kong. China reacted extremely painfully to this, considering it was interference in its internal affairs. And since the first phase of the trade deal between the US and China is already at the finish line, this could potentially lead to the disruption of the deal. But on Friday, Trump said he would veto the bill. In the USA, in the meantime, the impeachment process continues, which in itself is a kind of guarantee against a sharp rise in the dollar value in the foreign exchange market. So, despite the activation of buyers of the dollar on Friday and sellers of safe-haven assets against the background of such news, we still see no reason to revise our trading preferences. And on Monday we will buy the pound and the euro against the US dollar, and we will also buy gold and the Japanese yen. Rising oil prices stopped on Friday, as we expected, our recommendation to sell oil has become even more relevant. Do not forget to sell the Russian ruble as well. As for the upcoming week, it has a chance to become low-volatility. Data on US GDP is formally extremely important, but it will be a revised value, that is, the probability of surprise appear is low.
Long
by Trade24Fx