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Russianruble

EW ANALYSIS: Long-term And Short-term View On Russian RubleHello traders! Today we will talk about pretty clear Russian Ruble. From a technical perspective, we see very interesting price action and wave structure based on Elliott Wave theory. Let's start with Weekly chart: In EW theory, after every five waves, a three-wave correction follows and as you can see, USDRUB is turning down after five waves up. So, we can expect at least three waves A-B-C of decline where wave C is still missing, which means that strong Russian Ruble can be coming in the next few weeks/months. Daily chart: Looking at the daily chart we can see an impulsive five-wave rally within wave (C) of B, so seems like USDRUB has completed a flat correction and found a resistance at 70.65 level, especially because of a current sharp and impulsive decline into wave A/1 away from highs. So, what we expect now is minimum three waves of decline at least back to 61.61 area, A/1 - B/2 - C/3. Intra-day hourly chart: At the hourly chart, we can see a very nice bounce away from A/1 lows with five waves up and three waves of pullback, which means that wave B/2 can be underway and should be made by three waves a-b-c, where wave c is still missing and can be reached around ideal 61,8% Fibonacci retracement and 68 area. However, we want to say that Russian Ruble can be strong in the upcoming year, so we decided to share our view, just keep in mind that this may become more complex, so as long as it's trading below 70.65 invalidation level, we will remain bearish! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
by ew-forecast
4
We'll have the JPY sandwich please=> Russia remains under pressure here after suspending FX purchases through to the end of September => The circus from the Whitehouse will be back from recess shortly and will likely impose further sanctions against Russia, this will increase appetite for flows outside of RUB and similarly to the logic in ZARJPY we are using JPY as a beneficiary of these risk flows. => The risk to our thesis is an improvement in foreign policy relationships between Congress and the US, a scenario with very low odds as per today. => GL
Short
by ridethepig