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RUSSELL 2000

Daily Market Update for 4/7Summary: Stocks weren't sure what to do on Thursday, but Bonds sold off as investors continue to digest what Fed actions may be in store for later this year. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 7, 2022 Facts: +0.06%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 72%, Body: 12% Green Good: High closing range Bad: Lower high, lower low, dip below 50d MA Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin green body above a long lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.48, more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.43%), DJI (+0.25%), RUT (-0.35%), VIX (-2.49%) Sector List: Health (XLV +1.92%) and Energy (XLE +1.31%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.82%) and Communications (XLC -0.87%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stocks weren't sure what to do on Thursday, but Bonds sold off as investors continue to digest what Fed actions may be in store for later this year. The Nasdaq recovered from an intraday dip to close +0.06% higher. The candle has a 12% body in the upper half of the candle. It's above a long lower wick that formed in the first half of the day as the index plunged below the 50d MA. Prices recovered in the afternoon before the Nasdaq hit resistance at the 21d EMA and formed a short upper wick before close. The closing range was good at 72%, but there were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) was the best index today, advancing by +0.43%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +0.25%. Small-caps did not do well with the Russell 2000 (RUT) declining by -0.35%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -2.49%. Seven of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Health (XLV +1.92%) and Energy (XLE +1.31%) were at the top of the list. Real Estate (XLRE -0.82%) and Communications (XLC -0.87%) had the biggest losses. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims were less than forecast. 166,000 claims were counted against the expectation of 200,000. The US Dollar index (DXY) continued higher, climbing by +0.13% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. The gap between the 10y and 2y continues to widen. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell for another day. Brent Oil dipped below $100 but then closed the day just above that mark. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.799. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Neutral. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index rose to 83.41 from 79.72 the previous week. Three of the big six mega-caps ended the day with gains. Tesla (TSLA) gained +1.10%, followed by Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) which gained +0.62% and +0.18%. Pfizer (PFE) was the top mega-cap, followed by other Health sector stocks. Pfizer gained +4.33% today. Pfizer announces the acquisition of ReViral, a respiratory virus drugmaker. At the bottom of the mega-cap list was Alibaba (BABA). Chewy (CHWY) was the top stock in the Daily Update Growth List. Chinese stocks dominated the bottom of the list with Ehang Holdings (EH) falling by -7.17% to land at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, published by the USDA, will be published at noon tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dipped below the 50d MA mid-day before recovering and finding resistance at the 21d EMA before close. If the one-day trend line continues, that would mean a +0.38% gain on Friday. The trend line from the 3/29 high and the five-day trend line point to -0.98% and -1.47% declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market is still sorting out what interest rate hikes and the balance-sheet runoff means for the rest of 2022. If the bond market is an indication, then we will likely see more volatility in equities, especially with growth stocks. Higher yields and the strengthening US dollar will especially put pressure on large multinationals that depend on repatriated revenues. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/6Summary: A look at the Fed meeting minutes didn't do much to alleviate investor worries over inflation and near-term Fed actions. That created a wildly volatile day for equities while the US Dollar strengthened and Treasury yields rose. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 6, 2022 Facts: -2.22%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 26% (w/gap), Body: 47% Red Good: Recovery from the intraday lows Bad: Gap down at open, low closing range, high volume on decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Gap down, longer lower wick under a 50% red body. Advance/Decline: 0.29, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.97%), DJI (-0.42%), RUT (-1.42%), VIX (+5.09%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.99%) and Health (XLV +1.52%) at the top. Technology (XLK -2.37%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.55%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A look at the Fed meeting minutes didn't do much to alleviate investor worries over inflation and near-term Fed actions. That created a wildly volatile day for equities while the US Dollar strengthened and Treasury yields rose. The Nasdaq declined by -2.22%. Volume was higher than the previous day. The index opened with a gap down to start below the 21d EMA, continued lower until getting support at the 50d MA and recovering some of the loss. The candle has a 26% closing range, considering the full range from yesterday's low to include the gap. There were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -1.42%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell by -0.97%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.42%. The VIX Volatility Index rose another +5.09%. Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day with Utilities (XLU +1.99%) and Health (XLV +1.52%) performing the best. Growth sectors led markets lower. Technology (XLK -2.37%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.55%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Crude Oil Inventories were higher than expected, helping Crude Oil futures to drop. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose to +0.14%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y yield declined. That continued to widen the gap after the yields inverted briefly last week. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices continue to drop. Brent Oil dropped to $101. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.897. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into the Fear range. The big six mega-cap charts were crushed by the sell-off. Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA) all broke below key moving averages. Only Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) remain above the three moving averages I track. Nvidia had the biggest drop, declining by -5.88% while Apple faired the best, declining only -1.85%. Eli Lilly (LLY) along with the rest of the Health sector did well. LLY topped the mega-cap list with a +4.56% gain. Nvidia and Tesla were at the bottom of the mega-cap list. All stocks in the Daily Update Growth List declined. Twitter (TWTR) had the smallest decline, falling only -0.41%. The biggest declines were from Beyond Meat (BYND) and Cloudflare (NET), which both fell over 8%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will kick off with the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as well as several Fed members are scheduled to speak throughout the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq opened the day below the 21d EMA and continued lower before getting support at the 50d MA. The trend line from the 3/29 high, the five-day trend line, and the one-day trend line all point to a +0.30% advance for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It seems that the Fed will shed $95 billion a month from the balance sheet and raise interest rates 225 more basis points before the end of the year. That will be three 50 point increases and three 25 point increases. The good news, is now we know. The bad news is that the impact on your favorite equities may not be over yet. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/5Summary: Brainard turns hawkish and sucks the energy out of the market. Equities dropped as yields soared. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 5, 2022 Facts: -2.26%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 11%, Body: 86% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Lower high, lower low, closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, tiny upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.24, 4 declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.26%), DJI (-0.80%), RUT (-2.36%), VIX (+13.25%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.63%) and Health (XLV +0.21%) at the top. Technology (XLK -2.11%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.34%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Brainard turns hawkish and sucks the energy out of the market. Equities dropped as yields soared. The Nasdaq declined by -2.26%. Volume was higher than the previous day. The lower high and lower low as well as the low closing range all mark a bearish day of distribution. The red body covers 86% of the candle and leaves behind an 11% closing range. There were more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined the most, losing -2.36$. The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped by -1.26%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost -0.80%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +13.25%. Only four of the eleven S&P 500 (SPX) sectors, all defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU +0.63%) and Health (XLV +0.21%) were the top gainers. Technology (XLK -2.11%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.34%) had the most significant declines. Services and non-Manufacturing PMI indexes were slightly lower than expected. The trade balance also showed a more negative picture than forecast, but not too far off the expectation. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.50%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose but the yield curve continues to recover from the temporary inversion last week. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined sharply. Brent Oil is hovering near $105 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.753. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved toward the Fear range but remains close to Neutral. All big six meg-caps declined. Nvidia (NVDA) declined by -5.22%, closing below its 21d EMA. Amazon (AMZN) lost -2.55%, dropping back below its 200d MA. The other four remain above their moving average lines but are showing the same volatility as the rest of the market. United Health (UNH) was at the top of the mega-cap list with a +1.52% gain. Alibaba (BABA) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -5.53% today. Alibaba topped the list yesterday. Only two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List, RH (RH) and Twitter (TWTR) ended the day with gains. RH gained +7.10% after Josh Brown of Ritholtz doubled his position in the company. Beyond Meat (BYND) was at the bottom of the list, dropping by -7.85%. The stock had plenty of company as more than half of the list declined more than 5%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead After the market opens on Wednesday, we'll get the weekly update on Crude Oil Inventories. The Meeting Minutes from the most recent FOMC gathering will be released in the afternoon, giving investors more detail into the conversations around inflation and the proposed Fed response. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq lost support at 14,500 on the economic data and then descended further after Brainard's public comments on inflation and the Fed response. If the index is to return to the trend line from the 3/14 low, it would require a +4.34% advance. That is not likely to happen in just one day. The five-day trend line is pointing to a +0.26% advance for Wednesday. If the one-day trend line continues, the index will test the 21d EMA with a possible decline of -1.51%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Why did Lael Brainard's hawkish views cause so much turmoil in the markets? She's considered one of the most dovish of the Fed governors. So it was a big deal when she said the Fed should draw down the balance sheet at a rapid pace. It also adds more evidence to the mix that the Fed will also raise interest rates by 50 basis points next month, compared to the 25 basis points last month. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/4Summary: Equities rallied on the first day of the week. Large-cap growth stocks drove the rally while Twitter soared 27% on news that Elon Musk bought a significant stake in the company. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 4, 2022 Facts: +1.90%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 99%, Body: 92% Green Good: Higher high, higher low, great closing range Bad: Lower volume on gain Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body, small lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.18 Indexes: SPX (+0.81%), DJI (+0.30%), RUT (+0.21%), VIX (+0.16%) Sector List: Communications (XLC +2.76%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.25%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.77%) and Health (XLV -0.83%) at the bottom. Expectation: -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Equities rallied on the first day of the week. Large-cap growth stocks drove the rally while Twitter soared 27% on news that Elon Musk bought a significant stake in the company. The Nasdaq rose by +1.90%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle is 92% green body with a tiny lower wick and really no upper wick as the index ended the day with a 99% closing range. The higher high and higher low starts the week off in an uptrend. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.81%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced by +0.30%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rose by +0.21%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) moved higher by +0.16%. Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Communications (XLC +2.76%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.25%) were the top sectors, the former helped by Twitter's big gain. Utilities (XLU -0.77%) and Health (XLV -0.83%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Factory Orders for February met expectations. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.43%. US 30y and 10y Yields rose while the 2y Yield declined. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced. Brent Oil rose back above $105 for a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.640. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at the mid-point of Neutral. All big six mega-caps gained with Tesla (TSLA) leading the way, advancing +5.61% for the day. Amazon (AMZN) closed back above its 200d moving average, gaining +2.93% today. All big six are above their key moving averages. Alibaba (BABA) was the top mega-cap for the day. It advanced +6.62% along with many other Chinese stocks that rallied. Pfizer (PFE) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -1.22% today. Twitter (TWTR) was the top stock in the Daily Update Growth List. The company's stock price soared +27.12% after Elon Musk took a 9% stake in the company. Twitter was followed by Chinese Fintech companies. FUTU Holding (FUTU) gained +19.51% and UP Fintech (TIGR) gained +13.74%. There were no decliners in the list, but Crowdstrike (CRWD) landed at the bottom, advancing only +0.52% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tuesday morning will bring Import/Export data for February. We will also get the Services and Non-Manufacturing PMI data for March. The data shows the level of activity in those sectors. API Weekly Crude Oil stock comes in the afternoon. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved met resistance at the 14,500 level, but then closed above that level after a late-session rally. If the index returns to the trend line from the 3/14 low, that would mean a +2.17% gain for Tuesday. The one-day trend line points to a +0.77%. The five-day trend line is still sloping downward from the 3/29 high. That line ends with a -1.79% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a good start to the week. Investors seem positive about the news of withdrawals in Ukraine. It also helped to have the shiny object of Twitter's rally to attract attention to the market. We'll see if the rally can continue this week. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/1Summary: Small-caps led the way higher on Friday, but defensive sectors continued to top the sector list with mixed news in economic data. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 1, 2022 Facts: +0.29%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 74%, Body: 5% Red Good: High closing range, recovery from dip Bad: Lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin red body in upper part of candle, long lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.1, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.34%), DJI (+0.40%), RUT (+1.01%), VIX (-4.52%) Sector List: Real Estate (XLRE +1.99%) and Utilities (XLU +1.40%) at the top. Technology (XLK -0.30%) and Industrials (XLI -0.78%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Small-caps led the way higher on Friday, but defensive sectors continued to top the sector list with mixed news in economic data. The Nasdaq rose +0.29%. The candle has a thin red body in the upper half and a long lower wick. Despite the high closing range of 74%, the candle has a lower high and lower low from the previous day. Volume was lower than Thursday. However, there were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the other indexes, moving up by +1.01%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.34% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.40%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -4.52%. Eight of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Real Estate (XLRE +1.99%) and Utilities (XLU +1.40%) were the top-performing sectors. Technology (XLK -0.30%) and Industrials (XLI -0.78%) were at the bottom of the list. Payrolls grew less than expected in March, with Nonfarm Payrolls gaining 431,000 compared to the forecast of 490,000. However, the unemployment rate declined to 3.6%, better than the expected 3.7%. The ISM Manufacturing PMI that shows the health of the sector, came in at 57.1 compared to the expected 59.0 The US Dollar index (DXY ) gained by +0.22%. The US 30y Treasury Yield declined while the 10y and 2y Treasury Yields rose. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices fell but Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices gained slightly. Brent Oil ended the week below $105. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.784. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the Fear side, but near Neutral. Four of the big six gained for the day. Alphabet (GOOG) had the biggest gain, advancing +0.75% after testing its 200d MA. Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) followed with +0.75%, +0.36% and +0.35% gains. Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) declined but only Amazon remains below its 200d MA. Verizon Wireless (VZ) was the top mega-cap for the day. The communications company gained +2.32% on Friday. Nvidia was the worst-performing stock in the mega-cap list. Stocks in the Daily Update Growth List did well for the day. Fastly (FSLY) topped the list with a +7.65% gain. Draft Kings (DKNG) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -2.16%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Factory Orders data for February will be released on Monday after the market opens. ZoomInfo (ZI) is among a shortlist of earnings reports to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Despite the daily gain, the Nasdaq put in a lower low and lower high on the day, continuing a downtrend over the last three days of the week. If the index returns to the trend line from the 3/14 low, that would require a +3.88% for Monday. Returning to that trend line would likely take a few days. The five-day trend line is in decline, but the index would still need a +0.25% to return to that line. The one-day trend line is also in decline despite ending the day with a gain. If the one-day trend continues, expect a -0.78% decline for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up After two strong days on Monday and Tuesday, the Nasdaq entered a downtrend for the remainder of the week. It's not a bad thing, as it allows moving averages to catch up, keeping the market from getting extended. Oil prices seem to be coming down which is good. Maersk says that supply chain issues created by shipping costs could be resolved in a few months. That is good news. Market direction for next week depends a lot on the war in Ukraine. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/31Summary: No sector avoided losses among continuing worries over the war in Ukraine and the Fed's response to inflation. Chinese stocks moved lower on disappointing economic data and COVID outbreaks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 31, 2022 Facts: -1.54%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 1%, Body: 94% Red Good: Lower volume Bad: Closing range, advance/decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, tiny upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.41, more than two declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.57%), DJI (-1.56%), RUT (-1.00%), VIX (+6.36%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU -0.11%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.24%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.92%) and Financials (XLF -2.29%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview No sector avoided losses among continuing worries over the war in Ukraine and the Fed's response to inflation. Chinese stocks moved lower on disappointing economic data and COVID outbreaks. The Nasdaq fell by -1.54%. Volume was lower than the previous day but the 94% red body and 1% closing range show selling throughout the day. There is a small upper wick formed after open but then a sell-off in the last hour erased a lower wick leaving behind a thick red bodied candle. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -1.57% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -1.56%. Small caps held up the best with the Russell 2000 (RUT) declining only -1.00%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +6.26%. All S&P 500 sectors declined. Defensive sectors were at the top of the sector list. Utilities (XLU -0.11%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.24%) had the least significant declines. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.92%) and Financials (XLF -2.29%) were at the bottom of the list. PCE Price Index data was slightly lower than forecast. Weekly Initial Jobless claims came in at 202,000 compared to the forecast of 197,000. The Chicago PMI for March showed a stronger than expected manufacturing sector. The US Dollar index (DXY) grew +0.52%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields were lower while the 2y Yields increased. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate bond prices moved lower. Brent Oil moved below $110, ending the day at $105.22. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.787. The CNN Fear & Greed index is just on the Fear side of Neutral. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index rose to 79.72 from 52.69 the previous week. All of the big six declined today. Alphabet had the biggest loss, declining by -2.10%. However, Amazon (AMZN) is the only one trading below any moving average line (the 200d MA). No mega-caps gained today. Costco (COST) faired the best, only declining -0.11%. The biggest loser was Alibaba (BABA), declining -6.67% to end up at the bottom of the list. The Daily Update Growth List had just eight stocks with gains. The best stock in the list was MongoDb, gaining +3.11%. Chinese stocks were at the bottom of the list with FUTU Holdings (FUTU) having the largest decline. The stock fell by -12.94%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow is payrolls Friday when we get the monthly look at employment data in the early morning. We will also get the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index after the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continued to pull back from the recent rally. If the index will return to the trend line from the 3/14 low, it would take a +4.49% gain which is not likely to come in one day. The five-day trend line points to a +2.80% gain. If the one-day trend continues, we can expect another -0.23% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investor jitters drove selling today. The war in Ukraine. Continuing high inflation. Economic data from China amid COVID outbreaks. Those were the major themes and will continue to drive volatility in the days and possibly weeks ahead. We just ended the worst quarter for equities since the pandemic began. Here's hoping for a better Q2! Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/30Summary: Stocks pulled back after yesterday's rally as investors awaited any breakthroughs in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 30, 2022 Facts: -1.21%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 26%, Body: 52% Red Good: Lower volume on decline, still well above last week's close Bad: Closing range, lower high, lower low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Medium red body in middle of candle, equal upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.33, three declining for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.63%), DJI (-0.19%), RUT (-1.97%), VIX (+2.28%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.16%) and Utilities (XLU +0.83%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.33%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.52%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stocks pulled back after yesterday's rally as investors awaited any breakthroughs in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations. The Nasdaq fell by -1.21%. The decline nearly filled the gap-up at yesterday's open. Volume was lower than the previous day. The 52% red body sits in the middle of candle with equal length upper and lower wicks. The upper wick, formed in the morning. The index then declined, briefly pausing at 14,500 before moving lower. A quick rally before the close created the lower wick. The Russell 2000 (RUT) had the biggest decline, pulling back by -1.97% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped -0.63%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined only -0.19%, helped by a rally in energy stocks. Four of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Energy (XLE +1.16%) was at the top of the sector list, followed closely by Utilities (XLU +0.83%). The other two gaining sectors were both defensive sectors. Technology (XLK -1.33%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.52%) were at the bottom of the list. GDP data for Q4 was lower than expected, showing quarter-over-quarter growth of 6.9% compared to expected growth of 7.1%. GDP Price Index data also came in lower than expected, possibly good news that prices are growing less quickly than thought. Crude Oil Inventories were lower than expected, helping boost oil prices today. Brent Oil prices moved higher on reports that Germany may ration oil and the US Crude Oil Inventories were lower than expected. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined by -0.58%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined and the inversion in the 10y and 2y started to recover. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.627. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at Neutral. All big six declined. Amazon (AMZN) dipped back below its 200d MA but all others are well above moving averages. Novo Nordisk (NOVO) was the top mega-cap today, advancing +2.12%. UnitedHealth (UNH) followed with a +2.12% advance, helping the health sector end the day with gains. ASML Holding (ASML) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining by -3.47%. The Daily Update Growth List had only three gainers. Lululemon Athletica (LULU) was at the top of the list, gaining +9.58% on strong earnings and a stock repurchase announcement. RH (RH) and Chewy (CHWY) both disappointed investors with their earnings and landed at the bottom of the list. They declined by -13.33% and -16.10% respectively. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead PCE Price Index Data along with Personal Spending for February comes in the morning. We will also get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. After the market opens, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index data will provide a look at manufacturing health. Walgreens (WBA) reports earnings tomorrow. The company will give one more look at the health of the Retail sector which so far had mixed results in earnings this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq pulled back from yesterday's rally. On the way down, it go support at 14,500 but then ended the day below that area. If the index returns to the trend line from the 3/14 low, that would mean a +2.83% gain for Thursday. The five-day trend line points to a +2.11% gain. If the pull-back continues, the one-day trend line ends with a -1.15% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors, and the general public, were hoping for more of a breakthrough in negotiations to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. Negotiators on both sides needed time to write a formal agreement and get support from within their parties. Talks will resume in online formats on Friday. Germany has said it may start to ration oil. That caused Brent Oil to rise above $110 again today but is now back below that mark. Tomorrow's inflation data tomorrow will have the most influence over markets as we wait for better news from Ukraine. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/28Summary: More yield curve inversion in bond markets raised eyebrows while a drop in oil prices helped equities rally. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. I had a vacation last week and decided to stay away from the computer as much as possible, so no Daily Updates for the past week. Overall a constructive week for the market, but fear-driven volatility persists as global events unfold and the yield curve inverts for the first time since 2008. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 28, 2022 Facts: +1.31%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 100%, Body: 70% Green Good: 100% closing range, consistent gains after morning dip. Bad: Lower volume, and advance/decline ratio below 1.0 Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thick green body above a medium lower wick. No upper wick. Advance/Decline: 0.64, three declining stocks for every two advancing Indexes: SPX (+0.71%), DJI (+0.27%), RUT (+0.00%), VIX (-5.67%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.67%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.27%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.45%) and Energy (XLE -2.48%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview More yield curve inversion in bond markets raised eyebrows while a drop in oil prices helped equities rally. The Nasdaq gained +1.31% for the day, continuing the rally since March 14. Volume was lower than the previous day and there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. So although the rally continues, it is slowing. That could be constructive, allowing for moving averages to catch up. Or it could mean another dip is ahead. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.71%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.27%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) stayed flat. The VIX Volatility Index declined -5.67%, continuing to drop back to normal levels, but still elevated. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.67%) led the sector list, helped by Tesla's (TSLA) 8% gain. Real Estate (XLRE +1.27%) was the next best sector. Materials (XLB -0.45%) and Energy (XLE -2.48%) were at the bottom of the sector list. The Energy sector was brought down by a dip in oil prices. The 5y Treasury Yield rose above the 30y yield for the first time since February 2006. Inversions signal future recessions. The inversion in 2006 preceeded the 2008 Financial Crisis and a 60% correction in US equity markets. Brent Oil fell by -8.64% but remained above $105. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.32% today. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 5y and 2y Treasury yields advanced. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold both declined sharply. The put/call ratio declined to 0.654. The big six all gained today with Tesla (TSLA) leading the way with a +8.03% gain. Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) followed with +2.56% and +2.31% gains. With Amazon moving above its 200d moving average, now all six are above the three key moving average lines. Tesla topped the broader mega-cap list as well. Big oil companies were at the bottom of the list with Royal Dutch Shell (SHEL) having the biggest loss, declining by -2.90%. The Daily Update Growth List did very well with only a handful of declining stocks in the list. At the top of the list was DoorDash (DASH), gaining +8.68%. GrowGeneration (GRWG) declined by -4.05%, ending down at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead How Price Index data for January will be available in the morning. After the market opens, we'll see CB Consumer Confidence for March and the JOLTs Job Openings for February. More Fed members are scheduled to speak tomorrow and investors will be watching for any aggressively hawkish comments. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock comes in the afternoon. Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Chewy (CHWY), RH (RH) are among some of the interesting earnings reports for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq seems to have support at 14,000 and is heading toward the support/resistance area of 14,500. If the trend from the 3/14 low continues, we can expect a +1.89% advance for Tuesday. The one-day trend line points to a +0.33%. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -0.72% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It will be interesting to watch how the market reacts to more inversion in the yield curve. The higher yields on shorter-term Treasuries could be a combination of worries about the war in Ukraine, but also could be over fears of a recession induced by the Fed's attempts to control inflation. Typically, an inversion signals a recession that is still months to a couple of years away. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
RTY UpdateLooks to me like the market just wants to bounce sideways, I hope that's the case because sideways rangebound trading is just about the easiest way to make money. In any case, if you're still bullish, wait until MFI goes oversold before buying the dip. I woke up late today and missed the morning drop so staying out for now. Garbage stocks are tempting but I'll probably have to wait to see what happens tomorrow. Might buy a few CHWY puts or something EOD if there's no afternoon rebound. I told you guys short squeezes always run 3 or 4 days, looks like that's over. Could just go sideways though.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by hungry_hippo
Daily Market Update for 3/18Summary: The Nasdaq had its best week since November 2020, rallying more than 10% from Monday's low to close with a +8.18% gain. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 18, 2022 Facts: +2.05%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 99%, Body: 89% Green Good: High volume advance, great closing range Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body, tiny lower wick, no upper wick Advance/Decline: 1.86, more than three advancing for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+1.17%), DJI (+0.80%), RUT (+1.02%), VIX (-7.01%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.11%) and Technology (XLK +2.05%) at the top. Energy (XLE -0.09%) and Utilities (XLU -0.85%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq had its best week since November 2020, rallying more than 10% from Monday's low to close with a +8.18% gain. The tech-dominated index rose +2.05% for the day. Volume was much higher thanks to a quadruple witching day where derivative contracts all expire the same day, causing an increase in volume. The candle is 89% green body with a 99% closing range, leaving behind a small lower wick created right after the market opened. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by +1.17%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose by +0.80%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +1.02%. The VIX Volatility Index fell further, declining -7.01% today. Nine of the eleven S&P 500 (SPX) sectors gained today. Growth sectors led again with Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.11%) and Technology (XLK +2.05%) at the top of the sector list. Energy (XLE -0.09%) and Utilities (XLU -0.85%) were the two declining sectors. Existing Home Sales for February declined -7.2% month-over-month. Much more than the forecast of a -1.0% decline. Brent Oil remained above $100, closing at $105 today. The US Dollar index (DXY) gained +0.22%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yieldS declined while the 2y Treasury yield advanced. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced. Gold and Silver declined. Timber continues to rise back toward its 2022 highs after dropping sharply this month. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.676. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the middle of the Fear range as it moves back toward neutral. A drop in market volatility and less demand for safe-haven assets is driving the move in the index. The big six made significant progress in their charts today. Nvidia (NVDA) is outperforming in the current rally, gaining +6.81% and well above its moving average lines. All six are above their 21d exponential moving average. Five are above their 50d moving average. Three of the six are above their 200d moving average. Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list with a +7.90% gain, beating out Nvidia for the top spot. Verizon Communications (VZ) was at the bottom of the list, declining -2.98%. In the Daily Update Growth List, UP Fintech (TIGR) was at the top. The company benefited from both the momentum in Chinese stocks and a great earnings report and outlook. The stock soared +33.66% today. The stock is up +73.42% for the week and over 100% from its low on Monday. The other Chinese stocks in the list also dominated the top spots. Only two stocks declined in the growth list, Solar Edge (SEDG) declined -0.66% and Penn National Gaming (PENN) lost -0.11%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic data scheduled for Monday, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak in the morning. Nike (NKE), Pinduoduo (PDD), and Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) report earnings on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved above the 13,800 and closed right just above the 50d moving average line. The one-day and five-day trend lines and the trend line from the 3/14 low all point to a gain of around 2% on Monday if the current momentum continues. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I thought there might be a pullback in indexes today as investors take profits and protect from war news over the weekend. The optimism and high volume from expiring derivative contracts were enough to keep the strong rally from Monday's low alive. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/17Summary: All sectors rose on Thursday as investors' worries eased about interest rate hikes and the war in Ukraine. However, oil prices are on the rise again and could create more volatility to close the week. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, March 17, 2022 Facts: +1.33%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 84% Green Good: Closing range, support at 21d EMA, advance/decline Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a tiny lower wick Advance/Decline: 2.85, almost three advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.23%), DJI (+1.23%), RUT (+1.69%), VIX (-3.75%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.44%) and Materials (XLB +1.92%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.69%) and Utilities (XLU +0.42%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview All sectors rose on Thursday as investors' worries eased about interest rate hikes and the war in Ukraine. However, oil prices are on the rise again and could create more volatility to close the week. The Nasdaq rose +1.33%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle is covered by an 84% green body. A tiny lower wick formed when the index dipped to the 21d EMA. The closing range of 98% comes after a late afternoon rally. There were nearly three advancing stocks for every declining stock. Small-caps outperformed today with the Russell 2000 (RUT) gaining +1.69%. The S&P 500 (SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) both rose by +1.23%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -3.75%. All S&P 500 sectors advanced. Energy (XLE +3.44%) and Materials (XLB +1.92%) were the top two as oil prices and commodity prices rose again. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.69%) and Utilities (XLU +0.42%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Building Permits and Housing Starts in February were higher than forecasted. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in less than expected. There were only 214,000 claims vs the forecast of 220,000. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for March showed much better conditions than expected, with the index registering 27.4 vs the expectation of 15.0. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined by -0.39%. US Treasury yields didn't move much but all declined a bit today. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices continued to rebound higher from their low points on Monday. Brent Oil closed the day above $100 again. Silver and Gold both were higher. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.709. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into the Fear range from Extreme Fear yesterday. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 46.68 from exposure of 42.58 last week. The big six all rose but more modestly than the previous two days. Tesla (TSLA) had the biggest gain, rising by +3.73% today. Amazon (AMZN) was next with a +2.70% gain. Nvidia (NVDA) closed above its 50d moving average, gaining +1.10%, and is not above all three moving averages I track. Tesla topped the broader mega-cap list with its gain. At the bottom of the list was Alibaba (BABA), declining -4.39% as investors take profits from yesterday's massive rise for Chinese stocks. Lemonade (LMND) topped the Daily Update Growth List, gaining +14.54%. The Chinese stocks that topped the list yesterday, were at the bottom of the list today. Niu Technologies (NIU) declined by -6.51%, landing at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead After the market opens on Friday, we'll have the Existing Home Sales stats for February. Friday is a quadruple witching day for the market which means that derivatives for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire on the same day creating more volatility than usual in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose in the morning but then dipped back to the 21d EMA where it got support and then rose higher for the rest of the day. The trend line from the 3/14 low is pointing at a +2.81% advance if this current rally can continue. The one-day trend line ends with a +1.48% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line points to a -0.29% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market seems much more optimistic over the last few days. There's a big spike in stocks that are over their 50d moving average as the gains since Tuesday were broadly shared across the market. Still, after three days of big gains and investors wanting to protect from war news over the weekend, we may see some selling to end the week. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
S&P AnalysisLet's look at the money-supply adjusted S&P. If you're not familiar with money-supply adjusted charts, just know that money supply expansion always fuels the rise in asset prices first. Historically this takes about 6-18 months to play out. Now ask yourself, how long has it been since the 2020 mega-easing policy response of the FED? It seems like those tailwinds are now behind us and fading. In 2020, it sure seemed like we were headed into a bear market, there was a sharp correction down, but at the risk of losing capital, market participants had to resort to obeying the master that is monetary policy, or risk losing capital. Sorry for all of the lines and arrows here but stick with me for a minute :) It's important to define what the criteria for a "decline" is in order to know what to expect. I don't believe the coercion in 2020 can be definitively described as a correction/decline for various reasons, but let's try to keep it technical here, in terms of what the chart tells us. Before a DECLINE, there were a few things that played out together in 2001 and 2008: 1) A declining 100W SMA for 1 year or longer. 2) RSI 14 SMA 14 made a quick break to the 30s/40s area and STAYED there for longer than 6 months. 3) There was a few years of divergence in the RSI 14 SMA 14. Before a RECOVERY, there were a few things that played out together in 2003 and 2009: 1) Price broke out above the 100W SMA. 2) RSI 14 SMA 14 made a break above 50. 3) Once #1 and #2 took place, the 100W SMA began rising. The market is still indecisive at the moment. Our criteria of a DECLINE has not been met. At the same time, neither has our criteria for a RECOVERY, because we did not see a DECLINE. Dip buyers are buying in with all they've got. But is that really enough to prop up a 50 trillion dollar stock market (before you account for derivatives)? I must admit, it's really hard to be completely bullish or bearish here. I'm tending on the side of bearishness because it means that I have less to lose overall. I'd rather lose less than gain more at this point. The market isn't exactly showing raging bullish potential here with looming rising interest rates. But we haven't seen any definitive bearish signs either. Which means we could be in store for some complex correction action until our "DECLINE" criteria is finally met. One thing is clear though, there's so many traders willing to buy the dip right now, it's safe to say that most of them have never experienced devastating losses, which is usually a sign of looming losses to come. Thanks for reading and I hope this gives some perspective on the current risk of the assets market. Don't forget to hedge your bets!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by fringe_chartist
What is going on in Small Caps?After successfully predicting a 10-15% decline in Russell 2000 now we need to look at it once again..! I think the top of the orange box could be a strong resistance level and the relief rally will be ended there..! Also, this could be the SOW part of Wyckoff model: Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
TVC:RUT
by Moshkelgosha
2
Daily Market Update for 3/16Summary: The Fed brought no new surprises today, but the initial reaction caused a dip in indexes that reversed into a late after rally higher. Chinese stocks took off after the government pledged to support the stock market and not penalize companies with foreign listings. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, March 16, 2022 Facts: +3.77%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 99%, Body: 71% Green Good: Closing range of 99%, higher volume Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Gap up, large green body over long lower wick, not upper wick Advance/Decline: 3.34, more than three advancing for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+2.24%), DJI (+1.55%), RUT (+3.14%), VIX (-10.59%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.41%) and Technology (XLK +3.25%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.18%) and Energy (XLE -0.46%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Fed brought no new surprises today, but the initial reaction caused a dip in indexes that reversed into a late after rally higher. Chinese stocks took off after the government pledged to support the stock market and not penalize companies with foreign listings. The Nasdaq closed +3.77% higher for the day. The index opened with a gap up which faded as the Fed interest rate news approached. When the news hit, the Nasdaq fell -1.92% in about 30 minutes but then reversed and climbed +3.42% from the intraday low. The wild session created a long lower wick that sites below a 71% green body and a 99% closing range. There were more than three advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advance +3.14%. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by +2.24%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose by +1.55%. The VIX Volatility Index fell -10.59%. Nine of the eleven S&P 500 (SPX) sectors gained for the day. Growth sectors led with Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.41%) and Technology (XLK +3.25%) at the top of the list. Utilities (XLU -0.18%) and Energy (XLE -0.46%) were the two losing sectors. The Fed's decision was to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, a widely anticipated level for the first-rate hike. However, the Fed also announced plans to take on inflation aggressively with up to seven more rate hikes this year to end the year with a 1.75% to 2% interest rate. That aggressive stance was likely the reason for the initial reaction from investors. In other economic news, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales for February were less than forecast. Export Prices were higher and Import Prices were lower than forecast. Crude Oil Inventories were higher than expected. The US Dollar index (DXY) fell by -0.62% with most of that coming after the Fed announcement. The US 30y Treasury Yield declined while the 10y and 2y Yield rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Brent Oil topped $100 briefly but ended the day with a decline. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.795. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved closer to Neutral but remained in the Extreme Fear range. All of the big six advanced. Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Nvidia (NVDA) rose above their 21d EMA lines. Amazon (AMZN) closed above both its 21d EMA and 50d MA. Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list with a massive +36.76% gain as the Chinese government vowed to support public companies. Stocks at the bottom of the mega-cap list all had less than 1% declines. Johnson & Johnson was at the bottom of the list with a -0.92% decline. 23 stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained over 10%. The six Chinese stocks in the list gained over 25%. The top stock was Futu Holdings which soared by +39.54%. Not a single stock in the list declined. CrowdStrike (CRWD) had the smallest gain, advancing by +0.54%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts data for February will come in the morning. We will also get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Just before the market opens, the Industrial Production numbers for February will be released. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index met resistance at the 21d EMA in the morning, then got support at 13,000 in the afternoon dip, and finally climbed back to close above the 21d EMA. Because of the sharp afternoon rally, even the one-day regression trend line points to a decline tomorrow, which would be -0.96%. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, it would mean a -2.95% decline. The trend line from the 2/10 high points to a -4.89%. Just for some optimism, if we followed the trend line from the 3/14 low, it points to a +2.58% gain for Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up What a wild reaction to the Fed announcement. It may take some time to sort out where investors in both equities and bonds see the impact of the more hawkish fed. We might see some more volatility over the next few days as investors react to the Fed's new plans and any developments in Ukraine. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/15Summary: Oil prices dropped below 99.01 and the Producer Price Index indicated some relief on inflation, giving some assurance to investors that the Fed might not get too hawkish with interest rate hikes. That helped markets bounce to the upside on Tuesday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, March 15, 2022 Facts: +2.92%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 93%, Body: 74% Green Good: Solid green candle, higher high/low, great closing range Bad: Couldn't quite get above 13,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body, with a lower wick longer than upper wick Advance/Decline: 1.33, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+2.14%), DJI (+1.82%), RUT (+1.40%), VIX (-6.11%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +3.36%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.35%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.79%) and Energy (XLE -3.66%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Oil prices dropped below 99.01 and the Producer Price Index indicated some relief on inflation, giving some assurance to investors that the Fed might not get too hawkish with interest rate hikes. That helped markets bounce to the upside on Tuesday. The Nasdaq rose +2.92%. Volume was lower than the previous day but still higher than the 50-day average volume. The candle has a 74% green body with a short lower wick and barely any upper wick, ending the day with a 93% closing range. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +2.14%, helped by the large mega-caps that performed well for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +1.82%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +1.40%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -6.11%, but remains elevated. All S&P 500 sectors except for the Energy sector gained. Growth sectors topped the list. Technology (XLK +3.36%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +3.35%) were the top-performing sectors. Energy (XLE -3.66%) dropped as the price of oil plunged from its recent highs. The Producer Price Index for February showed growth in prices of 0.8% compared to the forecast of 0.9%. The Core Producer Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose by only 0.2% but was expected to rise 0.6%. The NY Empire State Manufacturing index showed worsening conditions for the sector, registering -11.80 compared to the forecast of +7.0. Brent Oil fell below $100 for the first time since prices soared in the first week of March. The US Dollar index (DXY) declined by -0.08%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose while the 2y yield declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold prices continued to fall. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.907. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the Extreme Fear area. The big six all gained today. Nvidia (NVDA) led the list of six with a +7.70% gain. Tesla (TSLA) advanced +4.63%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) both gained around 3.9%. Nvidia and Tesla also topped the broader mega-cap list. Only four mega-caps declined. Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) were at the bottom of the list with -5.06% and -5.69% declines. Peloton rose +11.93% after getting positive commentary from an analyst at Bernstein. Only three stocks in the list had a decline, led by Sumo Logic which lost -1.42%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead In the morning, Retail Sales data for February will be available. Sales are expected to be less than in January. Crude Oil Inventories will be available after the market opens. The biggest news for tomorrow will be the Fed meeting and their interest rate decision which will come at 2p in the afternoon. Investors will also be interested in the interest rate projections for the rest of this year. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq returned to the 13,000 support/resistance area. It was not able to close above the line, but could possibly move back above it tomorrow. If the one-day trend line continues, expect a +1.28% advance for Wednesday. If the index returns to the trend line from the 2/10 high, that would mean a -1.51% decline. The five-day trend line points to a -2.88% decline for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Finally, oil prices and the producer price index relieved some pressure from inflation worries. Markets reacted positively to the news and had a nice bump to the upside today. But investors will be even more sensitive to what comes from the Fed meeting tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/14Summary: Investors continued to move out of equities as the war continues in Ukraine and the Fed heads toward its first rate hike since the start of the pandemic. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, March 14, 2022 Facts: -2.04%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 7%, Body: 59% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Long upper wick from failed rally, closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long upper wick over a thick red body Advance/Decline: 0.36, nearly three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.74%), DJI (+0.00%), RUT (-1.92%), VIX (+3.32%) Sector List: Financials (XLF +1.26%) and Health (XLV +0.71%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.85%) and Energy (XLE -2.99%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors continued to move out of equities as the war continues in Ukraine and the Fed heads toward its first rate hike since the start of the pandemic. The Nasdaq declined by -2.04%. A rally in the morning failed to hold, creating a long upper wick above a thick red body covering 59% of the candle. The closing range was dismal at 7%, leaving behind a tiny lower wick. Volume was higher than the previous day. Only the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) avoided a loss for the day, but only climbed a fraction, ending the day even at +0.00%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -0.74%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped -1.92%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +3.32%. Four of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Financials (XLF +1.26%) and Health (XLV +0.71%) were at the top of the sector list. Technology (XLK -1.85%) and Energy (XLE -2.99%) at the bottom. The Energy sector is pulling back from recent gains as the price of oil drops. Brent Oil dropped to $103.55 per barrel. The US Dollar index (DXY) stayed about even, declining by just -0.04%. US Treasury Yields all rose sharply. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices dropped. Silver and Gold both declined. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.929. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in Extreme Fear but edged toward Neutral. All of the big six declined. Tesla (TSLA) again was the worst of the six, declining -3.64%. Microsoft (MSFT) had the smallest decline but still dropped by -1.30%. Pfizer (PFE) topped the mega-cap list for a second day, advancing +3.94% today. Likewise, Alibaba (BABA) was at the bottom of the list again, declining by -10.32%. Only three of the Daily Update Growth List stocks advanced. PayPal (PYPL) topped the list with a +0.31% gain. Six stocks in the list declined more than 10%, with five of those stocks being Chinese companies. Ehang Holding (EH) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -16.45%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The February Producer Price Index (PPI) data will arrive in the morning. The data provides a forward-looking view on inflation pressures. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index will also be available. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be published in the afternoon after the market closes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved toward its 40-month exponential moving average which provided a bottom for corrections in the past. The only corrections to break through that line are 2000, 2008, and 2020. If the index returns to the trend line from the 2/10 high and the five-day trend line, that would mean a +1.64% gain for Tuesday. The one-day trend line leads to a -3.29% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I saw some headlines today that said investors were moving into safe-haven assets but today we see the US dollar is steady, there are higher Treasury yields (selling bonds) and lower Silver and Gold prices. Cryptocurrencies aren't moving all that much. There certainly wasn't much interest in risk assets either. The Fed meeting comes on Wednesday. Unless some huge surprise rate increase comes, I'd expect the market to move opposite of what it's doing now. Investors tend to overprotect heading into these events. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 3/11Summary: Markets ended a choppy week with another losing session. Growth sectors sold off the most as investors moved to safer assets for the weekend. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, March 11, 2022 Facts: -2.18%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 3%, Body: 94% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Mostly red body, lost support at 13,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Outside day, long red body, tiny wicks Advance/Decline: 0.44, more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.30%), DJI (-0.69%), RUT (-1.59%), VIX (+1.72%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU -0.34%) and Financials (XLF -0.71%) at the top. Communications (XLC -1.80%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.92%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets ended a choppy week with another losing session. Growth sectors sold off the most as investors moved to safer assets for the weekend. The Nasdaq closed lower by -2.18% on higher volume than the previous day. The 94% red body is surrounded by tiny upper and lower wicks. A 3% closing range represents the selling throughout the day and into the final minutes of the market. There were more than two stocks that declined for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) slid -1.30% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.69%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined by -1.59%. The VIX Volatility index rose by +1.72%. All S&P 500 sectors declined today. Utilities (XLU -0.34%) and Financials (XLF -0.71%) were at the top. Communications (XLC -1.80%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.92%) had the biggest declines. Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment for March were lower than forecast, possibly weighed down by the war in Ukraine. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose +0.61%. The US 30y Treasury Yield declined while the 10y and 2y yields rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Brent Oil prices rose but remained below $110 a barrel. Silver and Gold declined, but not much compared to the rising strength of the US dollar. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.863. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained in Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 42.58, from 30.3 the previous week. The survey of money managers is taken on Wednesday evenings and the market rose this past Wednesday before dipping again on Thursday and Friday. All of the big six declined. Tesla (TSLA) fell the most, losing -5.12%. Pfizer (PFE) was the top mega-cap for the, advancing +2.17%. Alibaba (BABA) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining by -6.68%. Only two of the stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained. Chewy (CHWY) rose +2.27% while Solar Edge (SEDG) gained +0.89%. Five of the growth stocks declined more than 10%. DocuSign (DOCU) fell -20.10% after providing weak guidance and an analyst downgraded the stock and dropped its price target from $175 to $100. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much scheduled US economic news to start the week. Wednesday will bring the Fed's meeting and final interest rate decisions. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq held for a while around the 13,000 mark but then dropped below that area later in the afternoon. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a +1.79% gain for Monday. The trend line from the 2/10 high, points to a +0.53% advance. The one-day trend leads to a -1.56% decline to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a crazy week. It looked like investors were optimistic on Wednesday but the gains were given back to losses by the end of the day Friday. Given the big decline was likely from investors closing positions to avoid bad news over the weekend, we might see a bounce on Monday. However, expect more volatility until we find a firm bottom with support. The expectation for Monday is Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321