RUSSELL 2000
Daily Market Update for 2/18Summary: Worries over Ukraine caused another day of losses to cap a volatile week.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Friday, February 18, 2022
Facts: -1.23%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 28%, Body: 63% Red
Good: Nothing
Bad: Lower higher, lower low, lower close all on higher volume
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Large red body, longer lower wick, low closing range
Advance/Decline: 0.54, almost two declining stocks for every advancing
Indexes: SPX (-0.72%), DJI (-0.68%), RUT (-0.92%), VIX (-1.28%)
Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.18%) and Financials (XLF -0.03%) at the top. Industrials (XLI -0.83%) and Technology (XLK -1.01%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Lower
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Market Overview
Worries over Ukraine caused another day of losses to cap a volatile week.
The Nasdaq closed lower by -1.23%. Volume was higher than the previous day. The longer lower wick formed in the morning before the index bounced off intraday lows. A failed rally in the afternoon left behind a 63% red body and a 28% closing range. There were almost two declining stocks for every stock that advanced.
The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -0.72%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -0.68%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped -0.92%. Despite the declines in the major indexes, the VIX Volatility Index closed lower by -1.28%. Today's volatility was less than the previous day that saw significant losses across the market.
Only two of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day, with the top sector being a safe haven. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.18%) and Financials (XLF -0.03%) were the two gaining sectors. Industrials (XLI -0.83%) and Technology (XLK -1.01%) had the most significant losses.
Existing Home Sales for January were higher than expected. 6.5 million homes sold compared to the forecast of 6.1 million. As expected, the Fed's John Williams was much more optimistic about inflation than officials who spoke earlier in the week.
The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.32%. US Treasury Yields all declined as investors poured into the safer instruments. The yield curve is flattening again as the short-term outlook sours against the backdrop of the Ukraine conflict. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices followed Treasury prices higher (yield down, prices up). Gold remained at recent highs.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) topped 1.0 again, ending the day at 1.05. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Fear range. The put/call component of the CNN index is broken and, if working, would probably put the overall index near or within Extreme Fear. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index dropped to 53.49 from 66.8 the previous week.
All big six mega-caps declined today. Nvidia (NVDA) dropped -3.53%, getting support at its 200d moving average. Besides Nvidia, only Tesla (TSLA) remains above its 200d MA despite a -2.21% decline today.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +2.58% on further momentum after its earnings report earlier this week. Alibaba (BABA) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -4.37% loss.
Only two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List, Netflix (NFLX) and D.R. Horton (DHI) gained for the day. Netflix gained +1.19% while D.R Horton advanced +0.83%. Draft Kings (DKNG) and Roku (ROKU) were at the bottom of the list, declining more than -20% after disappointing investors with guidance outlook in their earnings releases.
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Looking ahead
U.S. Markets will be closed on Monday for President's Day.
Tuesday will kick off with February Manufacturing and Service Purchasing Managers Index data just after the market opens. Shortly after that, the CB Consumer Confidence numbers for February will be available.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa) will be the big earnings report to start the week. Also reporting on Tuesday will be Home Depot (HD), MercadoLibre (MELI), Nu Holdings (NU), Teladoc (TDOC), and Virgin Galactic (SPCE).
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq moved lower, not showing much support at any levels yet.
If the index returns to the five-day trend line and the trend line from the 2/10 high, we can expect a +0.44% gain for Tuesday.
If the one-day trend line continues, expect another -0.71% decline.
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Wrap-up
Right now, we are almost entirely dependent on the outcome of the Ukraine conflict. Certainly, investors did not want to hold riskier assets over a three-day weekend with the tensions still elevated.
The expectation for Tuesday is lower.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 2/17Summary: The Ukraine crisis continues to shift and cause volatility in the market. Safe haven metals and defensive sector stocks benefited from the investor flight to safety.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Thursday, February 17, 2022
Facts: -2.88%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 4%, Body: 91% Red
Good: Nothing
Bad: Distribution day, closing range, advance/decline ratio
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Mostly red body, tiny upper and lower wicks.
Advance/Decline: 0.32, three declining for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-2.12%), DJI (-1.78%), RUT (-2.46%), VIX (+15.73%)
Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.77%) and Utilities (XLU +0.06%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.68%) and Technology (XLK -2.99%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Lower
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Market Overview
The Ukraine crisis continues to shift and cause volatility in the market. Safe haven metals and defensive sector stocks benefited from the investor flight to safety.
The Nasdaq declined -by 2.88%. Volume was higher than the previous day but lower than the 50-day average volume. The candle is 91% red body with tiny upper and lower wicks. The selling was steady throughout the day, leaving the candle with a 4% closing range. There were three stocks that declined for every advancing stock.
The Nasdaq had the largest loss, weighed down by big tech. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was next, giving up -2.36% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -by 2.12% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -1.78%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) gained +15.73%.
Only two defensive sectors gained for the day, Consumer Staples (XLP +0.77%) and Utilities (XLU +0.06%). The worst-performing sectors were Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.68%) and Technology (XLK -2.99%).
Building Permits for January were higher than expected while Housing Starts were lower than expected. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for February was at 16, short of the forecasted 20. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were higher than forecast. There were 248,000 claims compared to the expected 219,000.
The US Dollar index (DXY) was nearly flat, climbing just +0.02%. US Treasury Yields all declined and the curve flatted a bit on the near-term economic worries. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced. Gold prices rose sharply, gaining +1.56% today. Silver gained +1.08%.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.846. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in the Fear range. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure Index dropped to 53.49 from 66.8 the previous week.
All big six mega-caps declined for the day. Tesla (TSLA) dropped the most, declining -by 5.09%. Meta (FB) lost -4.08% and dropped below Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) in market capitalization. The big six will exchange Nvidia (NVDA) for Meta (FB) starting next week, but TSM may pass Nvidia.
Walmart (WMT) was the top mega-cap, gaining +4.01% after an earnings beat and surprisingly positive outlook. Nvidia (NVDA) held above TSM in market cap despite declining by -7.56% today and landing at the bottom of the mega-cap list.
DoorDash (DASH) soared to the top of the Daily Update Growth List, gaining +10.69% after revealing strong growth in orders and providing positive guidance. Only two stocks in the growth list gained. The rest of the list saw some huge losses. Fastly (FSLY) dropped -33.63% after earnings. Earnings beat expectations but the guidance was much lower than street expectations.
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Looking ahead
The morning will bring Existing Homes Sales data for January. FOMC Member Williams is scheduled to speak tomorrow. He is typically more dovish than members such as Bullard who is calling for aggressive interest rate hikes.
Earnings reports tomorrow include Deere & Company (DE), Campbell Soup (CPB), and DraftKings (DKNG).
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq dropped below the 13,800 support/resistance area.
If the index returns to the five-day trend line, it would mean a +1.44% advance for Friday.
A return to the trend line from the 2/10 high points to a +0.51% advance for tomorrow.
The one-day trend line ends with another -1.67% decline.
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Wrap-up
Most everything hinges on the shifting status of the crisis in Ukraine. Until that is fully resolved we can continue to expect volatility. Before Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, the Nasdaq hit an all-time high and then correct about -10% during the conflict. This year, the Nasdaq already corrected -20% so will it go lower or just stay around this level until the conflict is resolved?
The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Russell 2000 - Bloomberg Special small-cap stock market index (ONE TO WATCH)
TVC:RUT
RUSSELL:RUT
AMEX:IWM
CME_MINI:RTY1!
AMEX:IWO
OANDA:US2000USD
AAN
AAOI
AAON
AAT
AAWW
AAXN
ABCB
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Aaron’s, Inc.
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAON, Inc.
American Assets Trust, Inc.
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc.
Axon Enterprise, Inc.
Ameris Bancorp
Abeona Therapeutics, Inc.
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.
ABM Industries, Inc.
Allegiance Bancshares, Inc. (Texas)
Associated Capital Group, Inc.
Arcosa, Inc.
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Atlantic Capital Bancshares, Inc.
ACCO Brands Corp.
Acer Therapeutics, Inc.
Achillion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Acacia Communications, Inc.
ACI Worldwide, Inc.
Axcelis Technologies, Inc.
ACNB Corp.
Acorda Therapeutics, Inc.
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp.
Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc.
AcelRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Acacia Research Corp.
Agree Realty Corp.
Advanced Emissions Solutions, Inc.
ADMA Biologics, Inc.
Adamas Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Adient plc
Aduro BioTech, Inc.
Advanced Disposal Services, Inc.
ADTRAN, Inc.
Addus HomeCare Corp.
Adverum Biotechnologies, Inc.
Aegion Corp.
Advanced Energy Industries, Inc.
American Equity Investment Life Holding Co.
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
Aerie Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Armstrong Flooring, Inc.
American Finance Trust, Inc.
Affimed NV
AgeX Therapeutics, Inc.
Agenus, Inc.
Aeglea Biotherapeutics, Inc.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp.
PlayAGS, Inc.
Argan, Inc.
Agilysys, Inc.
Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc.
Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc.
Arlington Asset Investment Corp.
Altra Industrial Motion Corp.
Aimmune Therapeutics, Inc.
Albany International Corp.
AAR Corp.
Airgain, Inc.
Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc.
Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc.
Great Ajax Corp.
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.
Akcea Therapeutics, Inc.
Acadia Realty Trust
Akero Therapeutics, Inc.
Akorn, Inc.
AK Steel Holding Corp.
Akoustis Technologies, Inc.
Albireo Pharma, Inc.
Alico, Inc.
Alder Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.
Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc.
ALLETE, Inc.
Alector, Inc.
Alexander & Baldwin, Inc.
Alamo Group, Inc.
Allegiant Travel Co.
Allakos, Inc.
Allogene Therapeutics, Inc.
AstroNova, Inc.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
Altus Midstream Co.
Altair Engineering, Inc.
Alexander’s, Inc.
AMAG Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Amalgamated Bank
Ambarella, Inc.
Ambac Financial Group, Inc.
AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.
Amedisys, Inc.
Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc.
AssetMark Financial Holdings, Inc.
Amkor Technology, Inc.
AMN Healthcare Services, Inc.
American National Bankshares, Inc. (Virginia)
Allied Motion Technologies, Inc.
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Ameresco, Inc.
Amyris, Inc.
Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
American Superconductor Corp.
AMERISAFE, Inc.
American Software, Inc.
Amerant Bancorp, Inc.
American Woodmark Corp.
AnaptysBio, Inc.
The Andersons, Inc.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
AngioDynamics, Inc.
Anworth Mortgage Asset Corp.
Anika Therapeutics, Inc.
ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
American Outdoor Brands Corp.
Alpha & Omega Semiconductor Ltd.
Artisan Partners Asset Management, Inc.
American Public Education, Inc.
Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Apogee Enterprises, Inc.
AppFolio, Inc.
Appian Corp.
Digital Turbine, Inc.
Preferred Apartment Communities, Inc.
Apyx Medical Corp.
Evoqua Water Technologies Corp.
American Renal Associates Holdings, Inc.
Accuray, Inc.
ArcBest Corp.
Arch Coal, Inc.
Ardelyx, Inc.
Ares Management Corp.
Argo Group International Holdings Ltd.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
American Realty Investors, Inc.
Arlo Technologies, Inc.
Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Archrock, Inc.
Arrow Financial Corp.
ArQule, Inc.
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
Artesian Resources Corp.
Arvinas, Inc.
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Ardmore Shipping Corp.
ASGN, Inc.
Advansix, Inc.
Assembly Biosciences, Inc.
Ascena Retail Group, Inc.
Altisource Portfolio Solutions SA
Assertio Therapeutics, Inc.
Astec Industries, Inc.
Atlantic Power Corp.
Alphatec Holdings, Inc.
A10 Networks, Inc.
Anterix, Inc.
Adtalem Global Education, Inc.
Athersys, Inc.
Allegheny Technologies, Inc.
Atkore International Group, Inc.
Ames National Corp.
ATN International, Inc.
Athenex, Inc.
Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc.
AtriCure, Inc.
Atrion Corp.
Astronics Corp.
Antares Pharma, Inc.
Air Transport Services Group, Inc.
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp.
Avista Corp.
AeroVironment, Inc.
Avalon GloboCare Corp.
American Vanguard Corp.
Avedra
Avid Technology, Inc.
Avanos Medical, Inc.
Avrobio, Inc.
AVX Corp.
Anavex Life Sciences Corp.
Avaya Holdings Corp.
American States Water Co.
Axos Financial, Inc.
Abraxas Petroleum Corp.
Accelerate Diagnostics, Inc.
Anixter International, Inc.
AxoGen, Inc.
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings
Axcella Health, Inc.
Axonics Modulation Technologies, Inc.
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.
AXT, Inc.
Aircastle Ltd.
AZZ, Inc.
Barnes Group, Inc.
Banc of California, Inc.
Bandwidth, Inc.
BancFirst Corp. (Oklahoma)
Banner Corp.
Liberty Media Corp. Liberty Braves
Liberty Media Corp. Liberty Braves
Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.
Concrete Pumping Holdings, Inc.
BridgeBio Pharma, Inc.
Barrett Business Services, Inc.
BBX Capital Corp.
BCB Bancorp, Inc.
Boise Cascade Co.
Bonanza Creek Energy, Inc.
Atreca, Inc.
BayCom Corp.
The Brink’s Co.
Blucora, Inc.
Brightcove, Inc.
Balchem Corp.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Belden, Inc.
Bridge Bancorp, Inc.
BioDelivery Sciences International, Inc.
Bloom Energy Corp.
BioTelemetry, Inc.
Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc.
Bel Fuse, Inc.
Bank First Corp.
BankFinancial Corp.
Saul Centers, Inc.
Business First Bancshares, Inc.
Briggs & Stratton Corp.
B&G Foods, Inc.
BG Staffing, Inc.
Biglari Holdings, Inc.
Bar Harbor Bankshares
Benchmark Electronics, Inc.
Berkshire Hills Bancorp, Inc.
Braemar Hotels & Resorts, Inc.
Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding Co. Ltd.
Big Lots, Inc.
Option Care Health, Inc.
BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.
BJ’s Restaurants, Inc.
Brookdale Senior Living, Inc.
The Buckle, Inc.
Black Hills Corp.
BlackLine, Inc.
Blue Bird Corp.
TopBuild Corp.
Builders FirstSource, Inc.
BioLife Solutions, Inc.
Blackbaud, Inc.
Bloomin’ Brands, Inc.
Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio
BMC Stock Holdings, Inc.
Badger Meter, Inc.
Bank of Marin Bancorp
Bryn Mawr Bank Corp.
Barnes & Noble Education, Inc.
Benefitfocus, Inc.
Bank of Commerce Holdings
Audentes Therapeutics, Inc.
Boston Omaha Corp.
DMC Global, Inc.
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
Box, Inc.
Boston Private Financial Holdings, Inc.
Blueprint Medicines Corp.
The Bank of Princeton
Brady Corp.
Craft Brew Alliance, Inc.
Bluerock Residential Growth REIT, Inc.
Bridgford Foods Corp.
Brookline Bancorp, Inc.
Brooks Automation, Inc.
BRT Apartments Corp.
Berry Petroleum Corp.
Bassett Furniture Industries, Inc.
BioSig Technologies, Inc.
BrightSphere Investment Group, Inc.
Sierra Bancorp
Biospecifics Technologies Corp.
Bank7 Corp.
BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.
Peabody Energy Corp.
First Busey Corp.
BrightView Holdings, Inc.
Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.
Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.
BlueLinx Holdings, Inc.
Bluegreen Vacations Corp.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.
BancorpSouth Bank
Byline Bancorp, Inc.
Boyd Gaming Corp.
BeyondSpring, Inc.
Beazer Homes USA, Inc.
Camden National Corp. (Maine)
Cadence Bancorporation
CAI International, Inc.
Cheesecake Factory, Inc.
Caleres, Inc.
Calithera Biosciences, Inc.
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
Calix, Inc.
CalAmp Corp.
Avis Budget Group, Inc.
CARA Therapeutics, Inc.
Carbonite, Inc.
Carter Bank & Trust
Cargurus, Inc.
Carolina Financial Corp.
Cars.com, Inc.
Casa Systems, Inc.
Meta Financial Group, Inc.
CASI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Cass Information Systems, Inc.
Cambridge Bancorp
Cardtronics plc
The Cato Corp.
Catasys, Inc.
Cathay General Bancorp
Colony Bankcorp, Inc.
CymaBay Therapeutics, Inc.
Cincinnati Bell, Inc.
CBL & Associates Properties, Inc.
Carbon Black, Inc. (Massachusetts)
Cambrex Corporation
Cellular Biomedicine Group, Inc.
Capital Bancorp, Inc. (Maryland)
Continental Building Products, Inc.
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.
CBTX, Inc. (Texas)
Community Bank System, Inc.
CBIZ, Inc.
Coastal Financial Corp. (Washington)
Capital City Bank Group, Inc.
Chase Corp.
Cabot Microelectronics Corp.
CNB Financial Corp. (Pennsylvania)
Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings, Inc.
Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc.
Cross Country Healthcare, Inc.
Century Communities, Inc.
ChemoCentryx, Inc.
Coeur Mining, Inc.
Cardlytics, Inc.
Avid Bioservices, Inc.
CareDx, Inc.
Cedar Realty Trust, Inc.
Chromadex Corp.
Codexis, Inc.
Cadiz, Inc.
CECO Environmental Corp.
Career Education Corp.
CONSOL Energy, Inc.
Celcuity, Inc.
Celsius Holdings, Inc.
Central Garden & Pet Co.
Central Garden & Pet Co.
Century Aluminum Co.
Cerecor, Inc.
Cerus Corp.
Central European Media Enterprises Ltd.
CEVA, Inc.
CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc.
C&F Financial Corp.
Capitol Federal Financial, Inc.
ConforMIS, Inc.
Chaparral Energy, Inc.
City Holding Co.
Community Healthcare Trust, Inc.
Churchill Downs, Inc.
The Chefs’ Warehouse, Inc.
Chegg, Inc.
Chiasma, Inc.
Chemung Financial Corp.
Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp.
Charah Solutions, Inc.
Coherus BioSciences, Inc.
Chico’s FAS, Inc.
Chuy’s Holdings, Inc.
Citizens, Inc. (Austin, Texas)
City Office REIT, Inc.
CIRCOR International, Inc.
Cision Ltd.
Civista Bancshares, Inc.
CompX International, Inc.
C&J Energy Services, Inc.
SEACOR Holdings, Inc.
Checkpoint Therapeutics, Inc.
Clarus Corp.
Columbia Financial, Inc.
Collectors Universe, Inc.
Cloudera, Inc.
Chatham Lodging Trust
Cleveland-Cliffs, Inc.
Clearfield, Inc.
Mack-Cali Realty Corp.
Colony Credit Real Estate, Inc.
Clean Energy Fuels Corp.
Clipper Realty, Inc.
Clovis Oncology, Inc.
Clearwater Paper Corp.
Calyxt, Inc.
Cambium Networks Corp.
Commercial Metals Co.
Columbus McKinnon Corp.
CIM Commercial Trust Corp.
Cumulus Media, Inc.
Capstead Mortgage Corp.
Compass Minerals International, Inc.
Cimpress Plc
Costamare Inc.
Chimerix, Inc.
Comtech Telecommunications Corp.
Century Bancorp, Inc. (Massachusetts)
Concert Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Conduent, Inc.
CONMED Corp.
Cannae Holdings, Inc.
CNO Financial Group, Inc.
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.
Cornerstone Building Brands, Inc.
Cohen & Steers, Inc. (New York)
Consolidated Communications Holdings, Inc.
Constellation Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Century Casinos, Inc.
CNX Resources Corp.
PC Connection, Inc.
Coda Octopus Group, Inc.
Cohu, Inc.
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.
Columbia Banking System, Inc.
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.
Conn’s, Inc.
Mr. Cooper Group, Inc.
Core-Mark Holding Co., Inc.
CorEnergy Infrastructure Trust, Inc.
Corcept Therapeutics, Inc.
Cowen, Inc.
Callon Petroleum Co.
Central Pacific Financial Corp.
Chesapeake Utilities Corp.
CorePoint Lodging, Inc.
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Cooper-Standard Holdings, Inc.
Computer Programs & Systems, Inc.
CRA International, Inc.
Corbus Pharmaceuticals Holdings, Inc.
California Resources Corp.
Care.com, Inc.
Crawford & Co.
Comstock Resources, Inc.
CorMedix, Inc.
America’s Car-Mart, Inc.
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Crocs, Inc.
Carpenter Technology Corp.
Cortexyme, Inc.
Cirrus Logic, Inc.
CorVel Corp.
CryoLife, Inc.
Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc.
CenterState Bank Corp.
CSG Systems International, Inc.
Cardiovascular Systems, Inc.
Castlight Health, Inc.
Cornerstone OnDemand, Inc.
Caesarstone Ltd.
Castle Biosciences, Inc.
CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc.
Carriage Services, Inc.
CSW Industrials, Inc.
Cooper Tire & Rubber Co.
Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (Kentucky)
CytomX Therapeutics, Inc.
Consolidated-Tomoka Land Co.
Contura Energy, Inc.
Centric Brands, Inc.
CareTrust REIT, Inc.
Citi Trends, Inc.
CTS Corp.
CytoSorbents Corp.
CatchMark Timber Trust, Inc.
Connecticut Water Service, Inc.
Cubic Corp.
Customers Bancorp, Inc.
Cue Biopharma, Inc.
Culp, Inc.
CURO Group Holdings Corp.
Cutera, Inc.
Covanta Holding Corp.
CVB Financial Corp.
Cavco Industries, Inc.
Central Valley Community Bancorp
Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.
Calavo Growers, Inc.
CVR Energy, Inc.
Covia Holdings Corp.
Commvault Systems, Inc.
Codorus Valley Bancorp, Inc.
CEL-SCI Corp.
Corindus Vascular Robotics, Inc.
Covenant Transportation Group, Inc.
Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.
Clearway Energy, Inc.
Clearway Energy, Inc.
Camping World Holdings, Inc.
Cushman & Wakefield Plc
Casella Waste Systems, Inc.
California Water Service Group
CoreCivic, Inc.
Cyclerion Therapeutics, Inc.
Community Health Systems, Inc.
CryoPort, Inc.
Cytokinetics, Inc.
Citizens & Northern Corp.
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Daktronics, Inc.
Dana, Inc.
Darling Ingredients, Inc.
Diebold Nixdorf, Inc.
Designer Brands, Inc.
Ducommun, Inc.
Dime Community Bancshares, Inc.
Deciphera Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
3D Systems Corp.
Dillard’s, Inc.
Easterly Government Properties, Inc.
Deckers Outdoor Corp.
Denny’s Corp.
Dermira, Inc.
Dean Foods Co.
Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc.
Donegal Group, Inc.
Digi International, Inc.
Diamond Hill Investment Group, Inc.
DHT Holdings, Inc.
DHI Group, Inc.
Dine Brands Global, Inc.
Diodes, Inc.
Daily Journal Corp.
Delek US Holdings, Inc.
Delta Apparel, Inc.
Duluth Holdings, Inc.
Deluxe Corp.
Digimarc Corp.
DNB Financial Corporation
Denali Therapeutics, Inc.
NOW, Inc.
Denbury Resources, Inc.
Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc.
Physicians Realty Trust
Domo, Inc.
Masonite International Corp.
Dorman Products, Inc.
Dova Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Diplomat Pharmacy, Inc.
DiamondRock Hospitality Co.
Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Dril-Quip, Inc.
Drive Shack, Inc.
Daseke, Inc.
DSP Group, Inc.
Diamond S Shipping, Inc.
Precision BioSciences, Inc.
Dynavax Technologies Corp.
Dynex Capital, Inc.
DXP Enterprises, Inc.
Dycom Industries, Inc.
DASAN Zhone Solutions Inc.
Brinker International, Inc.
Eventbrite, Inc.
Ennis, Inc.
Ebix, Inc.
Emergent BioSolutions, Inc.
Meridian Bancorp, Inc.
Enterprise Bancorp, Inc.
Echo Global Logistics, Inc.
US Ecology, Inc.
ChannelAdvisor Corp.
electroCore, Inc.
Encore Capital Group, Inc.
Editas Medicine, Inc.
El Paso Electric Co.
Emerald Holding, Inc.
Ellington Financial, Inc.
Enterprise Financial Services Corp.
eGain Corp.
Eagle Bancorp, Inc. (Maryland)
8×8, Inc.
Eagle Bulk Shipping, Inc.
NIC, Inc.
EastGroup Properties, Inc.
Eagle Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
eHealth, Inc.
Eidos Therapeutics, Inc.
Employers Holdings, Inc.
Endurance International Group
Eiger BioPharmaceuticals, Inc.
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
Eloxx Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Elevate Credit, Inc.
Callaway Golf Co.
EMCOR Group, Inc.
The Eastern Co.
Endo International Plc
Entegra Financial Corp.
Enochian Biosciences, Inc.
Enphase Energy, Inc.
EnerSys
The Ensign Group, Inc.
Enanta Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Envestnet, Inc.
Enova International, Inc.
Enzo Biochem, Inc.
Evolus, Inc.
Bottomline Technologies, Inc.
Edgewell Personal Care Co.
Evolution Petroleum Corp.
Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.
Epizyme, Inc.
Equity Bancshares, Inc.
Era Group, Inc.
Eldorado Resorts, Inc.
Energy Recovery, Inc.
Eros International Plc
Escalade, Inc.
ESCO Technologies, Inc.
Enstar Group Ltd.
Essent Group Ltd.
Esperion Therapeutics, Inc.
Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc.
ESSA Bancorp, Inc.
Earthstone Energy, Inc.
Community Bankers Trust Corp.
Ethan Allen Interiors, Inc.
Entercom Communications Corp.
Everbridge, Inc.
Evans Bancorp, Inc.
Entravision Communications Corp.
EverQuote, Inc.
Evofem Biosciences, Inc.
Evolent Health, Inc.
EVI Industries, Inc.
Evelo Biosciences, Inc.
EVO Payments, Inc.
Everi Holdings, Inc.
EVERTEC, Inc.
ExlService Holdings, Inc.
eXp World Holdings, Inc.
Exponent, Inc.
Express, Inc.
Exterran Corp.
Extreme Networks, Inc.
National Vision Holdings, Inc.
EyePoint Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
EZCORP, Inc.
Farmer Brothers Co.
FARO Technologies, Inc.
Fate Therapeutics, Inc.
Flagstar Bancorp, Inc.
First Business Financial Services, Inc.
FB Financial Corp.
Foundation Building Materials, Inc.
The First Bancshares, Inc. (Mississippi)
First Bancorp (North Carolina)
First BanCorp (Puerto Rico)
Franklin Covey Co.
First Capital, Inc.
First Community Bancshares, Inc. (Virginia)
First Choice Bancorp (California)
1st Constitution Bancorp
First Commonwealth Financial Corp.
FirstCash, Inc.
FTI Consulting, Inc.
Four Corners Property Trust, Inc.
Fidelity D&D Bancorp, Inc.
First Defiance Financial Corp.
Fresh Del Monte Produce, Inc.
Franklin Electric Co., Inc.
Forum Energy Technologies, Inc.
FutureFuel Corp.
First Financial Bancorp (Ohio)
FBL Financial Group, Inc.
Flushing Financial Corp.
First Financial Bankshares, Inc.
First Financial Northwest, Inc.
First Foundation, Inc.
FGL Holdings
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.
FibroGen, Inc.
Frank’s International NV
First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (Montana)
Federated Investors, Inc.
Financial Institutions, Inc.
Fitbit, Inc.
Five9, Inc.
Comfort Systems USA, Inc.
Homology Medicines, Inc.
National Beverage Corp.
Fluidigm Corp.
The First of Long Island Corp.
Falcon Minerals Corp.
Fluent, Inc.
SPX Flow, Inc.
1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc.
Flexion Therapeutics, Inc.
Flexsteel Industries, Inc.
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc. (Ohio)
First Mid Bancshares, Inc.
First Midwest Bancorp, Inc. (Illinois)
Farmers National Banc Corp.
Fabrinet
FNCB Bancorp, Inc.
FedNat Holding Co.
Funko, Inc.
The First Bancorp, Inc. (Maine)
First Northwest Bancorp (Washington)
Focus Financial Partners, Inc.
Ferro Corp.
Amicus Therapeutics, Inc.
Forestar Group, Inc.
FormFactor, Inc.
Forrester Research, Inc.
Fossil Group, Inc.
Fox Factory Holding Corp.
Farmland Partners, Inc.
Five Prime Therapeutics, Inc.
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.
Keane Group, Inc.
Franklin Financial Services Corp.
First Bank (Hamilton, New Jersey)
Republic First Bancorp, Inc.
Fiesta Restaurant Group, Inc.
First Merchants Corp. (Indiana)
FRP Holdings, Inc.
Freshpet Inc.
Forterra, Inc.
Franklin Financial Network, Inc.
FS Bancorp, Inc.
ForeScout Technologies, Inc.
Franklin Street Properties Corp.
Federal Signal Corp.
L.B. Foster Co.
Flotek Industries, Inc.
Frontier Communications Corp.
FTS International, Inc.
Forty Seven, Inc.
H.B. Fuller Co.
Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc.
Fulton Financial Corp.
FVCBankcorp, Inc.
Forward Air Corp.
German American Bancorp, Inc.
Gaia, Inc.
Galectin Therapeutics, Inc.
GATX Corp.
Glacier Bancorp, Inc.
GAMCO Investors, Inc.
Global Indemnity Ltd.
Global Blood Therapeutics, Inc.
Greenbrier Cos., Inc.
GAIN Capital Holdings, Inc.
Greene County Bancorp, Inc.
Gannett Co., Inc.
Genesco, Inc.
GCP Applied Technologies, Inc.
Golden Entertainment, Inc.
Green Dot Corp.
Goodrich Petroleum Corp.
Greif, Inc.
Greif, Inc.
Genesis Healthcare, Inc.
Gencor Industries, Inc.
The GEO Group, Inc.
Geospace Technologies Corp.
Geron Corp.
Guess?, Inc.
Griffon Corp.
General Finance Corp.
Genomic Health, Inc.
Greenhill & Co., Inc.
Graham Corp.
G-III Apparel Group Ltd.
Glaukos Corp.
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp.
Golar LNG Ltd.
GasLog Ltd.
Greenlight Capital Re Ltd.
P.H. Glatfelter Co.
Glu Mobile, Inc.
GlycoMimetics, Inc.
GameStop Corp.
Globus Medical, Inc.
Global Medical REIT, Inc.
GMS, Inc.
GNC Holdings, Inc.
Genie Energy Ltd.
Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd.
Global Net Lease, Inc.
Greenlane Holdings, Inc.
GenMark Diagnostics, Inc.
Generac Holdings, Inc.
Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (Texas)
Genworth Financial, Inc.
Gogo, Inc.
Acushnet Holdings Corp.
Gladstone Commercial Corp.
Gold Resource Corp.
Gossamer Bio, Inc.
Group 1 Automotive, Inc.
Granite Point Mortgage Trust, Inc.
Gulfport Energy Corp.
Green Plains, Inc.
GoPro, Inc.
GP Strategies Corp.
Green Brick Partners, Inc.
The Gorman-Rupp Co.
Griffin Industrial Realty, Inc.
Groupon, Inc.
Gritstone Oncology, Inc.
Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. (Missouri)
Goosehead Insurance, Inc.
GSI Technology, Inc.
G1 Therapeutics, Inc.
Chart Industries, Inc.
Gray Television, Inc.
Triple-S Management Corp.
GTT Communications, Inc.
Getty Realty Corp.
GTY Technology Holdings, Inc.
Granite Construction, Inc.
Great Western Bancorp, Inc. (South Dakota)
GWG Holdings, Inc.
Global Water Resources, Inc.
Hawaiian Holdings, Inc.
The Habit Restaurants, Inc.
Haemonetics Corp.
Hanmi Financial Corp.
Hallmark Financial Services, Inc.
Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc.
Harpoon Therapeutics, Inc.
Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure
Haynes International, Inc.
Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Co.
Home Bancorp, Inc.
Howard Bancorp, Inc. (Maryland)
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (Indiana)
Health Catalyst, Inc.
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
Heritage-Crystal Clean, Inc.
HCI Group, Inc.
The Hackett Group, Inc.
Healthcare Services Group, Inc.
H&E Equipment Services, Inc.
Helen of Troy Ltd.
HF Foods Group, Inc.
Heritage Financial Corp. (Washington)
Hillenbrand, Inc.
Hibbett Sports, Inc.
Hingham Institution for Savings
Health Insurance Innovations, Inc.
Hecla Mining Co.
Houlihan Lokey, Inc.
Helios Technologies, Inc.
Harmonic, Inc.
Hamilton Lane, Inc.
Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc.
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Co.
Horace Mann Educators Corp.
HomeStreet, Inc.
HMS Holdings Corp.
Hemisphere Media Group, Inc.
Hanger, Inc.
HNI Corp.
Hallador Energy Co.
Hooker Furniture Corp.
Home Bancshares, Inc. (Arkansas)
At Home Group, Inc.
HarborOne Bancorp, Inc.
HOOKIPA Pharma, Inc.
Hope Bancorp, Inc.
HighPoint Resources Corp.
HealthEquity, Inc.
Healthcare Realty Trust, Inc.
Herc Holdings, Inc.
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.
Heron Therapeutics, Inc.
Harsco Corp.
Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc.
Heska Corp.
HealthStream, Inc.
Hersha Hospitality Trust
HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.
Heritage Commerce Corp.
Hilltop Holdings, Inc.
Heartland Express, Inc.
Heartland Financial USA, Inc.
Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.
Hub Group, Inc.
Hudson Ltd.
Hurco Cos., Inc.
Huron Consulting Group, Inc.
Haverty Furniture Cos., Inc.
Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc.
Hancock Whitney Corp.
Hawkins, Inc.
Hyster-Yale Materials Handling, Inc.
MarineMax, Inc.
Intelsat SA
Independent Bank Corp. (Michigan)
IBERIABANK Corp.
International Bancshares Corp.
Installed Building Products, Inc.
Independent Bank Group, Inc.
Independence Contract Drilling, Inc.
ICF International, Inc.
Ichor Holdings Ltd.
Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
InterDigital, Inc.
Ideanomics, Inc.
IDT Corp.
IES Holdings, Inc.
Independence Holding Co.
Information Services Group, Inc.
Insteel Industries, Inc.
i3 Verticals, Inc.
Intricon Corp.
Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc.
II-VI, Inc.
Industrial Logistics Properties Trust
IMAX Corp.
ImmunoGen, Inc.
Ingles Markets, Inc.
Immersion Corp.
Immunomedics, Inc.
International Money Express, Inc.
First Internet Bancorp
Independent Bank Corp. (Massachusetts)
Infinera Corp.
Inogen, Inc.
Summit Hotel Properties, Inc.
Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Inovalon Holdings, Inc.
Intelligent Systems Corp.
Inspired Entertainment, Inc.
Inseego Corp.
Insmed, Inc.
Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.
Instructure, Inc.
International Seaways, Inc.
World Fuel Services Corp.
INTL FCStone, Inc.
Innoviva, Inc.
InnerWorkings, Inc.
Innospec, Inc.
Adesto Technologies Corp.
Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.
Inter Parfums, Inc.
Inphi Corp.
Innophos Holdings, Inc.
Intrepid Potash, Inc.
iRobot Corp.
Iridium Communications, Inc.
Investors Real Estate Trust
IRadimed Corp.
Independence Realty Trust, Inc.
iRhythm Technologies, Inc.
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Investors Bancorp, Inc. (New Jersey)
International Speedway Corp.
Isramco, Inc.
Investar Holding Corp.
Intra-Cellular Therapies, Inc.
Integer Holdings Corp.
Iteris, Inc.
Investors Title Co.
Itron, Inc.
Invacare Corp.
Invesco Mortgage Capital, Inc.
Jack in the Box, Inc.
Jagged Peak Energy, Inc.
J. Alexander’s Holdings, Inc.
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.
John Bean Technologies Corp.
Jernigan Capital, Inc.
j2 Global, Inc.
J. C. Penney Co., Inc.
JELD-WEN Holding, Inc.
J.Jill, Inc.
J&J Snack Foods Corp.
Jounce Therapeutics, Inc.
The St. Joe Co.
Johnson Outdoors, Inc.
James River Group Holdings Ltd.
The Joint Corp. (United States)
Kadant, Inc.
Kala Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Kaiser Aluminum Corp.
KalVista Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Kaman Corp.
Kimball International, Inc.
KB Home
KBR, Inc.
Kadmon Holdings, Inc.
Kimball Electronics, Inc.
Kelly Services, Inc.
KEMET Corp.
Kforce, Inc.
Korn Ferry
OrthoPediatrics Corp.
Kindred Biosciences, Inc.
Kaleido Biosciences, Inc.
KLX Energy Services Holdings, Inc.
Kennametal, Inc.
Knowles Corp.
Knoll, Inc.
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.
Kodiak Sciences, Inc.
Koppers Holdings, Inc.
Karyopharm Therapeutics, Inc.
Kraton Corp.
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust, Inc.
Kite Realty Group Trust
Kearny Financial Corp.
Kronos Worldwide, Inc.
Karuna Therapeutics, Inc.
Kura Sushi USA, Inc.
Krystal Biotech, Inc.
Kontoor Brands, Inc.
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.
Kura Oncology, Inc.
KVH Industries, Inc. (Delaware)
Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc.
Quaker Chemical Corp.
Kezar Life Sciences, Inc.
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Daily Market Update for 2/16Summary: Indexes took a breather from the big gains on Tuesday while the market awaited the Fed meeting minutes and the world contended with the shifting situation in Ukraine. Investors rotated profits in mid-caps into small-cap and large-cap bets today, focused on value and cyclical stocks.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Wednesday, February 16, 2022
Facts: -0.11%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 83%, Body: 37% Green
Good: Higher high, good closing range, advance/decline above 1.0
Bad: Lower low
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low
Candle: Large lower wick underneath a medium green size body. Small upper wick.
Advance/Decline: 1.12, more advancing than declining stocks
Indexes: SPX (+0.09%), DJI (-0.16%), RUT (+0.14%), VIX (-5.49%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +0.81%) and Materials (XLB +0.73%) at the top. Technology (XLK -0.10%) and Communications (XLC -0.70%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
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Market Overview
Indexes took a breather from the big gains on Tuesday while the market awaited the Fed meeting minutes and the world contended with the shifting situation in Ukraine. Investors rotated profits in mid-caps into small-cap and large-cap bets today, focused on value and cyclical stocks.
The Nasdaq ended the day with a -0.11% decline. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has a 37% green body in the upper half resulting in an 83% closing range. The longer lower wick formed right after opening and the index didn't recover until mid-afternoon when the Fed meeting minutes were released. There were more advancing than declining stocks.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed for the day, gaining by +0.14%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.09% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.16%. The VIX Volatility Index dropped -by 5.49%.
Energy (XLE +0.81%) and Materials (XLB +0.73%) were the top sectors. Only two of the eleven S&P 500 sectors declined, Technology (XLK -0.10%) and Communications (XLC -0.70%).
Economic news was positive, depending on your point of view. Retail Sales for January exceeded the forecast. Core Retail Sales climbed 3.3% month-over-month. The expectation was 0.8% growth in sales. On one hand, it's good to see consumer spending continue but on the other hand, it could cause further price increases as demand continues to outpace supply.
Industrial Production for January was also higher than expected. It grew by 1.4% compared to a 0.4% forecast.
The Fed meeting minutes to January did not contain any surprises. The Fed will begin raising interest rates and reducing the balance sheet in March.
The US Dollar index (DXY) declined by -0.21%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined and the gap further widened as investors become more comfortable with the economy in the near term. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices both increased.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.893. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Neutral but remained in the Fear range.
Three of the big six mega-caps advanced. Amazon (AMZN) had the biggest jump with a +1.02% gain. Meta (FB) fell another -2.02%. We may need to replace Meta with Nvidia, which now has a higher market capitalization.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) had the largest gain in the mega-cap list, rising +1.79% today. Meta was at the bottom of the mega-cap list.
Only a small number of the Daily Update Growth List stocks gained for the day. DataDog (DDOG) was at the top of the list with a +2.92% gain. Fiverr (FVRR) had the most significant loss, dropping by -10.69% and landing at the bottom of the growth list.
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Looking ahead
Building Permits and Housing Starts data for January will be available in the morning. We'll also get the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for February. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims come tomorrow as well.
Earnings reports for tomorrow will include Walmart (WMT), Palantir (PLTR), Roku (ROKU), and Redfin (RDFN).
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq opened lower but then recovered in the afternoon after investors found no surprises in the Fed's meeting minutes.
The one-day trend line meets up with the trend line from the 1/24 low at a +1.15% gain for Thursday.
The five-day trend line results in a -1.97% decline.
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Wrap-up
We thankfully had no surprises in the Fed meeting minutes for January. That provided some solid ground for investors to stand on. However, the situation in Ukraine continues to shift as mixed signals come from Russia on whether they are reducing troops on the border.
The outside day today keeps yesterday's gains intact, and with the high closing range, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Higher.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 2/15Summary: Markets bounced back on the good news that Russia would reduce forces at the Ukraine border. The result was broad gains across the market and upward jumps in the major indexes.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Tuesday, February 15, 2022
Facts: +2.53%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 86% Green
Good: Higher volume upward move with breadth gains (A/D ratio), closing range
Bad: Nothing
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low
Candle: Mostly green body, small lower wick, gap up at open
Advance/Decline: 3.32, more than three advancing for every declining stock
Indexes: SPX (+1.58%), DJI (+1.22%), RUT (+2.75%), VIX (-9.28%)
Sector List: Technology (XLK +2.63%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.24%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.47%) and Energy (XLE -1.05%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
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Market Overview
Markets bounced back on the good news that Russia would reduce forces at the Ukraine border. The result was broad gains across the market and upward jumps in the major indexes.
The Nasdaq gapped up at the open and closed the day with a +2.53% gain. Volume was slightly higher than the previous day but lower than the 50-day average. The candle has an 86% green body and a 98% closing range. A small lower wick formed at mid-day before the index rallied into a close. There were more than three stocks that gained for every stock that declined.
Small-caps outperformed with the Russell 2000 (RUT) gaining +2.75%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +1.58% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.22%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) fell by -9.32% but remained elevated.
Nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors rose for the day. Technology (XLK +2.63%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.24%) were the top two sectors. Utilities (XLU -0.47%) and Energy (XLE -1.05%) were the only two to decline. Energy fell as the crisis eases in the Ukraine and pressures on oil prices alleviate.
Economic data was not great for today. The Producer Price Index numbers for January were higher than expected, signaling further inflation coming for consumers. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for February was lower than expected, printing 3.10 against the forecast of 12.15.
The US Dollar index (DXY) declined -by 0.32%. 30y and 10y US Treasury Yields advanced while the 2y yield declined, putting at least a pause on the flattening yield curve. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices improved while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined.
Silver and Gold fell sharply as investors moved back to riskier assets. Crude Oil Futures declined on the Ukraine news.
The put/call ratio declined to 0.759. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range.
All big six mega-caps advanced. Apple (AAPL) gained +2.32% to close above its 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Tesla (TSLA) topped them all with a +5.33% gain.
Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list, advancing +9.18% today. The three mega-cap oil companies were at the bottom of the list. Exxon Mobile (XOM), Shell (SHEL), and Chevron (CVX) all lost more than 1%.
Sea Limited (SE) bounced back from yesterday's huge loss, gaining +15.78% today and topping the Daily Update Growth List. Investors sold the stock yesterday on news that one of its popular games would be banned in India. They came back today after giving it a second thought and seeing Cathie Wood's Ark Investment firm buy into the dip. There was only one loser, Zynga (ZNGA), on the growth list. The company declined -by 0.11%.
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Looking ahead
Tomorrow morning will bring Retail Sales data for January. Sales dipped more than expected in December and are expected to recover last month. We will also get Industrial Production and Business Inventories for January, both indicators for the economy. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories numbers will be available after the market opens.
Tech giants Nvidia (NVDA) and Cisco (CSCO) report earnings tomorrow evening. Applied Materials (AMAT), Shopify (SHOP), Synopsys (SNPS), Hilton (HLT), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Trade Desk (TTD), DoorDash (DASH), Hyatt (H), Quantamscape (QS), Crocs (CROX), and Fisker (FSR) are among others reporting tomorrow.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq gapped up and gained throughout the day, closing below the 21d EMA.
If the index returns to the trend line from the 1/24 low, it would mean a +1.18% gain for tomorrow.
The one-day trend line points to a +0.50% advance.
The five-day trend line ends with a -3.12% decline.
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Wrap-up
With Russia removing some troops from Ukraine, a conflict seems less likely. That helped ease oil prices and worries about even more inflation on top of already high inflation. The gap between long-term and short-term yields widened as the short-term outlook turned slightly better.
There's still a lot of reason to expect volatility over the next few months. The dynamics looked good today, but there are unknowns with the Fed that won't start to be resolved until next month.
For tomorrow, the expectation is Higher or Sideways.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 2/14Summary: It went up. It went down. In the end, there was no love or hate on Valentine's day as the Nasdaq closed where it opened. The indecision in the market comes among worries over Ukraine and how aggressively the Fed will deal with inflation.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Monday, February 14, 2022
Facts: -0.00%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 49%, Body: 9% Green
Good: Lower volume, Ok closing range
Bad: Lower high, lower low
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Spinning top signals indecision, thin body between equal upper and lower wicks
Advance/Decline: 0.48, more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-0.38%), DJI (-0.49%), RUT (-0.46%), VIX (+3.55%)
Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.57%) and Communications (XLC +0.01%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.12%) and Energy (XLE -2.36%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Lower
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Market Overview
It went up. It went down. In the end, there was no love or hate on Valentine's day as the Nasdaq closed where it opened. The indecision in the market comes among worries over Ukraine and how aggressively the Fed will deal with inflation.
The Nasdaq closed flat for the day. Volume was lower than the previous day. A rise in the morning created the upper wick while a sell-off in the early afternoon created the lower wick. The thin body of 9% left the index with only a -0.24 change, rounding to a 0% move. There were two stocks that declined for every advancing stock.
The S&P 500 (SPX) closed -0.38% lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -by 0.49%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -by 0.36%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +3.58%.
Of the eleven S&P 500 sectors, only Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.57%) and Communications (XLC +0.01%) ended the day with gains. Technology (XLK -0.03%) had a small loss. Financials (XLF -1.12%) and Energy (XLE -2.36%) were at the bottom of the list.
Multiple Fed officials made appearances today. Bullard restated his view that interest rates should be at 1% by summer. Other Fed officials were more dovish, causing indecision among investors.
The US Dollar strengthened compared to other currencies. The dollar index (DXY) rose +0.27%. Treasury Yields rose across the board while the gap between long-term and short-term yields continues to tighten. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Silver and Gold continued to climb as safe-haven assets. Crude Oil Futures hit another high.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 1.050, the second time it rose above 1.0 in a month. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is in the Fear range.
Four of the big six mega-caps ended the day with gains. Tesla (TSLA) had the biggest move, rising by +1.83%, likely helped by the overwhelming presence of other Electric Vehicles during the Superbowl commercials. Meta (FB) continued to slide, falling -0.84% today.
Tesla also topped the broader mega-cap list, followed by Nvidia (NVDA) which gained +1.33%. Abbott Laboratories (ABT) was at the bottom of the list, declining -by 2.16%.
Digital Turbine (APPS) topped the Daily Update Growth List, rising by +5.84%. Sea Limited (SE) declined -by 18.39% after India banned one of its popular apps. That sent the stock to the bottom of the growth list.
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Looking ahead
Producer Price Index data for January will be available in the morning before the market opens. The data is another indicator of inflation as price increases for producers will eventually make it to consumers. Also released in the morning will be the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for February.
Airbnb (BNB), Zoetis (ZTTS), Fidelity (FIS), Marriott (MAR), Roblox (RBLX), Zoominfo (ZI), and SolarEdge (SEDG) are among the earnings reports for tomorrow.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq dipped below the 13,800 support area and then recovered to close just below 13,800.
If the index moves back to the trend line from the 1/24 low, it would mean a +3.89% gain.
The five-day trend line ends with a -0.07% decline.
If the one-day trend line continues, it leads to a -0.69% decline for tomorrow.
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Wrap-up
The market showed how undecided investors continue to be on what will happen in Ukraine and how the Fed will handle continued inflation. Not only did the index chop up and down, but the fact that the Nasdaq ended the day where it began is a signal of indecision. Another final signal is the low volume as investors didn't want to make large moves based on unknowns.
With the lower high and lower low, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
In depth analysis of the stock market! Macro series pt3Part 3 This is the third part of the macro analysis series. In this part we'll focus on analyzing the current situation of the stock market based on fundamental and technical analysis, while trying to map out the future depending on how the Fed and the economy move. You can find the rest of the analysis on the links down below.
Let’s now transition into stocks and have a look at the three major US indices, as they are the best way to get a good picture of what is going on in stocks markets broadly. It is hard to find a way to get the full picture in one chart, especially when it comes to looking things globally. That’s why we’ll focus only on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000, due to the fact that the US has been leading this rally, as well as because we can get information on the performance of different types of stocks. Starting with the S&P, it is clear that it has broken its uptrend and has found support on the first major support level, around 4220-4280. On that level it also happens to be the 300 DMA, but the issue is that the market keeps testing the support (bearish) and it has been rejected by the 200 DMA on the first bounce. Nevertheless, the support has held beautifully up until now and might have even bottomed. In our opinion this isn’t the final bottom as we expected to see more downside at some point in 2022, with 3900-4000 being the first major target. This area is potentially one of the best ones for the final bottom as that’s the only breakout the market didn’t retest, plus there is a gap there on SPY. So far, the current correction was 12.4% top to bottom, and getting down to 3900-4000 would be around 18%, which is more than enough for a major bottom to be in. Back in 2018 it took a 21% correction for the Fed to pivot and stop raising rates. It wouldn’t surprise us at all if the Fed was forced to stop raising rates and maybe even restart QE if the S&P500 fell more than 20%, although it wouldn’t do it just because stocks fell. If US treasury bonds are going down (yields up), then the 60/40 portfolios would be losing value rapidly by being forced to sell both bonds and stocks. Of course, the problem isn’t just these two markets going down and affecting investor sentiment and spending, but the problems they can create on credit markets broadly. For example, if stocks and bonds go down, it is very likely that corporate bonds will go down too, and therefore many companies which are already struggling, would be forced to borrow with much higher yields or not be able to borrow at all. Again, the problem is that there is too much debt and the system isn’t be able to withstand rapid changes in interest rates and liquidity.
Like we mentioned above, the S&P doesn’t show the full picture, so we need to add the other two major indices to the mix. We’ll start with some important stats and move into their charts. From their Feb 2020 highs, the S&P went up 41%, the Nasdaq 71% and the Russell 44%. The Russell was the best performer from the March 2020 bottom up until March 2021, where it started going sideways and entered a very clear distribution phase. That’s because it benefited the most from long term US yields going up and the loose financial conditions that helped smaller companies do well. Another important component to the rally was the speculative mania that started from the Wall Street Bets subreddit with Gamestop, and then spread into other heavily shorted companies which started rallying hard. This is potentially a sign that deflation is coming back and that buying US large caps is still the best bet over the next few months. However, once that mania started reaching its peak, we saw several sectors and ETFs roll over, in and out of the US. We saw SPAK, ARKK and even the Shanghai index all top at the same time on Feb 2021. In exactly one year the RUT had 150% rally from top to bottom and until reaches its 2018-2019 highs it will probably underperform relative to other major US indices. Despite many stocks performing poorly, the SPX and NDX kept going higher, so it started becoming obvious that something was shifting. So how did that happen? How could several sectors of the market go down, how could so many stocks go sideways and lose value, and the major US indices continue to rally? The clear explanation is that the rally was led by US tech giants. US tech behemoths kept gaining market share and kept growing and growing. Despite what many people might think, these tech behemoths going up while everything else is suffering isn’t a long-term bullish signal, neither an inflationary one. That’s because many view these companies essentially as safe assets and treat them like long duration bonds.
When looking at where stocks are right now, it is very clear that they are significantly oversold on a Daily timeframe, something also confirmed by several metrics. At the same time though, they are still pretty expensive as they had exceeded the yearly average return (10%) by a lot. Their momentum is strong to the downside and on a weekly timeframe they haven’t gotten oversold. Many of you have probably heard people say many times that the stock market is overvalued and that a big bear market is near, only to see the market rally relentlessly up until a month ago. It is very important to note that the stock market based on most metrics is actually overvalued and has reached levels that historically would have led to a bear market. Even though this might be true; it doesn’t mean that because a certain signal worked in the past it will work again. Regardless of what all these metrics are indicating, the stock market could pull another 2-3x from here in the next decade, while having several 10-30% corrections in the meantime. That’s because the dynamics of the markets are very complex and keep evolving, while more and more people are depended on the stock market to go up, both of which have turned the stock market as something that the government and the Fed need to protect. Even if that wasn’t the case, any market can stay irrational for a very long period of time. All the people who are believe they are thinking rationally are dumfounded because invest based on some potentially outdated models, as they discount many other factors like market structure, psychology and liquidity. Eventually they will probably be right, but in the meantime, they’d have missed a lot of opportunities.
Currently the SPX and NDX flirted with support for a bit and bounced, while RUT made a new low and then bounced. The next resistance for SPX and NDX is 3-5% higher, while for RUT it is 5-10% higher. Getting there doesn’t mean we will get a huge rejection, as it is more likely that markets take a break and chop before deciding which direction they are going to choose. It is even possible that the SPX could make new ATHs before it starts rolling over again. The reason is that we could shake out late bears and potentially late longs coming in to take advantage of the ‘liquidity’ the Fed is providing as QE hasn’t stopped yet. The fact that the markets closed the week at pretty much the same level they were before hawkish Fed meeting, is fairly bullish. Because it means that the markets have somewhat priced in a lot of the negativity and there are many people who sold late. Even from a sentiment point of view, there are several ‘indicators’ that are screaming buy. Some examples are twitter polls both in stocks and crypto being skewed 25/75 bullish/bearish, real-life people I know that wanted to buy at 65k BTC tell me they are worried that I could lose everything, as well as everyone on twitter talking about how ARKK is down so much that its 2-year performance is now equivalent to that of Berkshire Hathaway.
In terms of the next key support for SPX and NDX, it is 10% lower while for RUT it is 10-16% lower. If the market gets there, we could either see the final bottom there, or simply a very and a strong bouncer. It is pretty early to tell whether the bull market is over yet, but in our opinion it seems unlikely. By looking back at the 1995-2000 period on the NDX, we can see that once the market broke above the major diagonal resistance, there were lots of 10-20% corrections and retests of that diagonal. This time around we’ve only tested the diagonal twice and this the largest correction out of the four that have occurred and were larger than 10%. The only index out of the three that is indicating major issues, is the Russell.
Another very important index that isn’t tracking the performance of stocks, but is tracking the volatility of the stock market is the VIX. The VIX can give us a lot of information around fear, uncertainty and change, based on the levels it is trading at and based on how it’s moving. Generally speaking, when the VIX is trading below 16, there is little uncertainty, fear and change, when the VIX is trading 16-32 things there is change, however fear and uncertainty are at moderate levels, while with VIX above 32 there is a lot of uncertainty, a lot of fear and things are changing rapidly. The higher the VIX, the more intense the sentiment on the market. During this correction the VIX got up to 39, which historically is pretty high and was even higher than the 36-37 zone which has as acted as ‘resistance’ on the VIX several times in the past. Although this could be the top for the VIX (bottom for stocks) like in Dec 2018 when the Fed was hiking rates, in our opinion it isn’t and we expect 48-50 to be the top for VIX (bottom for stocks). There are several reasons behind this thinking and a lot goes back to the Fed, the economy, etc, most importantly however, it has to do with the psychology of the market. We feel investors haven’t been scared enough in order to fully capitulate and be shaken out of their longs, neither is the Fed cornered enough to do a 180 turn yet. With so many things changing in the world it doesn’t make sense for volatility to be so low and that at some point as the Fed is raising rates, something could break and cause significant panic. One thing to keep in mind is that in case of severe economic weakness and rapid drop in the inflation rate, then the Fed could use that as an excuse not to raise rates before the market forces them to stop. In that scenario the VIX might topped for a very long time at 39, as the markets will assume the Fed has their back and they don’t have to worry about higher interest rates.
During the GFC the VIX peaked at 95 and during the Covid crash at 85. Back then once it got down to 15-16 it had two spikes up to 48, while this time around it has remained lower with most peaks below 40. Of course, 39 is a perfectly reasonable top for 2022, although we don’t see a way that the Fed hikes 3+ times without at least one of them creating significant panic. Last point on the VIX and stocks broadly, is that it looks like it has formed a significant bottom throughout 2021 and that it currently has a proper long term bullish structure. It’s pretty rare to see it form significant higher highs and higher lows, which could be seen as a sign that there is at least another leg up. Maybe go down to 18-22, test the yearly Pivot & the major moving averages, and then pump.
Daily Market Update for 2/11Summary: Worries rose this week over the Ukraine conflict's impact on inflation and driving a more hawkish response from the Fed. If you are not ok with the wild ride, hopefully you are on the sidelines.
Notes
I fat-fingered the date yesterday and then copied it through the entire publishing process. :(
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Friday, February 11, 2022
Facts: -2.78%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 11%, Body: 82% Red
Good: Nothing
Bad: Long red body, higher volume, low advance/decline, new low for the week
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Mostly red body, short upper and lower wicks
Advance/Decline: 0.46, more than two declining for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-1.90%), DJI (-1.43%), RUT (-1.02%), VIX (+14.43%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.91%) and Utilities (XLU +0.06%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.87%) and Technology (XLK -3.05%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Lower
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Market Overview
Worries rose this week over the Ukraine conflict's impact on inflation and driving a more hawkish response from the Fed. If you are not ok with the wild ride, hopefully, you are on the sidelines.
The Nasdaq dropped -2.78% today. Volume was higher than Thursday while consistent selling throughout the day created an 83% red body. The 11% closing range put the index just below the 13,800 support area. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock.
Small-caps lost but held up better than the other indexes. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -by 1.02%. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) were down -1.90% and -1.43% respectively. The VIX Volatility Index rose +14.43%. The sentiment index soared more than 50% intraday.
The one sector benefiting from the Ukraine crisis is Energy (XLE +2.91%) which stands to profit from soaring energy prices. Only one other sector gained today, the defensive sector of Utilities (XLU +0.06%). The other nine S&P 500 sectors declined. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.87%) and Technology (XLK -3.05%) had the most significant losses.
The Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment numbers did not help with investors' worries. Consumer Sentiment was at 61.7 against a forecast of 67.5 and down from the previous month's number of 67.2.
The US Dollar index (DXY) rose. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all dropped. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices dropped sharply (opposite of Treasury prices), while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices tracked along with Treasuries, rising today. Gold rose +1.75% to a new three-month high. Silver gained as well. Crude Oil Futures of course moved higher on the Ukraine worries. Other commodities were lower for the day.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.972. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range. Note that the Put/Call Options component (which says Extreme Greed) of this index seems to have some bad data. If this component showed the real numbers, the overall index would likely be in Extreme Greed now.
All of the big six mega-caps declined sharply. Tesla (TSLA) dropped -by 4.93%. Meta (FB) bounced off its 21d EMA and ended the day with a -3.74% decline. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) also dropped below their 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) are back below their 200d MA, dropping -3.13% and -2.43% today.
The top three mega-caps for the day were all big Energy stocks. Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) both gained over 2%, while Royal Dutch Shell (SHEL) gained +1.27%. Recent gains for energy stocks helped Shell into the mega-cap category. The biggest loser in the mega-cap list was Nvidia (NVDA) with a -7.26% loss today.
There were only three stocks that gained in the Daily Update Growth List. UP Fintech (TIGR) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) were first and third, gaining +4.09% and +1.89%. Draft Kings (DKNG) was second in the list, rising +2.41% today. Cloudflare (NET) declined -by 9.52% to end up at the bottom of the list. The stock was up after hours yesterday thanks to a great earnings report and outlook, but the market is not able to stomach any risk right now so investors took profits.
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Looking ahead
The Fed Reserve announced a closed-door meeting for Monday under expedited procedures to discuss interest rates. An early hike of interest rates is very likely.
Advanced Auto Parts (APP) and Avis (CAR) reports earnings on Monday evening.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The index landed at the 13,800 support area which was prior resistance. It's not a strong support area yet, but we'll see how it goes.
If the index heads back to the trend line from the 1/24 bottom, it would require a +4.63% gain on Monday.
The five-day trend line points to a +2.79% for the start of the week.
If the one-day trend continues, it would mean another -3.82% decline.
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Wrap-up
Investors offloaded risk and moved into safe havens today as the Ukraine conflict continues to evolve. The safe-haven US Dollar rose compared to other currencies. Treasury bond prices rose (prices rise when yields drop). Riskier Corporate bond prices declined. And equities fell.
As inflation is at its highest in 40 years, it looks like it could go even higher with the Ukraine conflict. The Fed will meet for an expedited procedure on Monday, likely to start raising interest rates.
The expectation for Monday is Lower. Once the news clears from the Fed's expedited meeting, we'll have a better picture of where things head from there.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 12/10Summary: Consumer Price data showed inflation at its highest in forty years, raising concerns that the Fed will be more hawkish in its March rate hike than previously thought. Treasury yields soared while equities pulled back.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Thursday, February 10, 2022
Facts: -2.10%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 17%, Body: 11% Red
Good: Higher high
Bad: Lower low, lower closing range, high volume on decline
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low
Candle: Long upper wick over a thin red body
Advance/Decline: 0.52, two declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-1.81%), DJI (-1.47%), RUT (-1.55%), VIX (+19.79%)
Sector List: Materials (XLB -0.58%) and Energy (XLE -0.62%) at the top. Technology (XLK -2.61%) and Real Estate (XLRE -2.85%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Lower
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Market Overview
Consumer Price data showed inflation at its highest in forty years, raising concerns that the Fed will be more hawkish in its March rate hike than previously thought. Treasury yields soared while equities pulled back.
The Nasdaq declined -1.81% for the day. The index rallied after opening lower, passed yesterday's high, but then sold off the rest of the day as investors turned bearish. That left behind a long upper wick and a small 11% red body. The low closing range was 17%. The decline came on higher volume than the previous day and represented two declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped -1.81% led lower by big tech. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -by 1.55%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) did a little better with a -1.55% decline. It was helped by the Materials sector early morning rally. The VIX Volatility Index rose by 19.68%
All eleven S&P 500 (SPX) sectors declined. Materials (XLB -0.58%) and Energy (XLE -0.62%) both rallied in the morning, helping them top the sector list for the day. Technology (XLK -2.61%) and Real Estate (XLRE -2.85%) were the bottom two sectors.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January showed an increase of 7.5% year-over-year, the largest increase in forty years. The Core CPI, which excludes oil and gas, increase 6.0% year-over-year. Initial Jobless Claims were at 223,000. The Fed's priority of a strong labor market appears healthy, allowing it to take a more hawkish approach to control inflation.
The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.25%. The US 2y Treasury Yield rose over 16% and topped 1.6% after markets closed. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields also rose sharply, but the gap between long-term and short-term yields squeezed considerably. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices dropped sharply along with Treasury prices. Copper and Aluminum futures continue to rise.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.708. That rise is less than one might expect given the conditions, but investors are likely betting on a brief CPI reaction and then rebound. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 66.8 from 62.54 the previous week. The survey of money managers is conducted on Wednesdays after the market closes.
All big six mega-caps declined today. Tesla (TSLA) had the worst decline, falling -by 2.95%. It was followed by Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) which fell -2.84% and -2.36%.
Walt Disney topped the mega-cap list with a +3.35% gain. The company showed a great post-pandemic recovery in its earnings report released yesterday. The only other mega-cap to gain today was Coca-Cola (KO) which gained +0.54% after beating analyst expectations in a morning earnings report. Adobe (ADBE) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -5.12% decline.
DataDog (DDOG) smashed expectations in its earnings report and provided a great outlook. That sent the stock up nearly 20% intraday. It settled with a +12.28% gain to top the Daily Update Growth List. GrowGeneration (GRWG) was second in the list, gaining +5.67% on the passing of the Safe Banking Act in the House of Representatives which will benefit the cannabis industry. The bill passed thru the House six times but has yet to pass the Senate.
DoorDash (DASH) was at the bottom of the Growth List with a -9.54% decline. As additional states pullback mask mandates and other pandemic measures, investors are expecting diners to return to restaurants.
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Looking ahead
The Fed monetary Policy Report is due tomorrow morning. After the market opens, the Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment numbers for February will be available. Do consumers see inflation easing or will they confirm fears of further price pressures?
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq opened lower, but then rallied until it hit resistance at 14,500 and fell back below the 21d EMA. I don't usually mention the 10d simple moving average, but it has provided support over the past six sessions. The index closed right above that line today.
If the index returns to the longer trend, the five-day trend line, and the trend line from the low on 1/24, it would mean a +2.25% gain for Friday.
The one-day trend line points to a -1.90% decline.
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Wrap-up
You can thank James Bullard of the St Louis Fed for today's reversal to the downside. The inflation data was enough to have markets open earlier, but Bullard's comments ended the morning rally. Bullard told the press that he would be open to additional rate hikes outside of regular meetings and wanted to see the rate at one percent by July. Ouch!
We'll have to wait until tomorrow to see how the market further digests that fear. Based on the chart, the expectation is lower.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 2/9Summary: Markets closed sharply higher on Wednesday, led by big tech and broad gains across almost all segments.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Wednesday, February 9, 2022
Facts: +2.08%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 100%, Body: 76% Green
Good: Closing range, high volume, advance/decline ratio
Bad: Gap may need filled
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low
Candle: Gap-up at open, small lower wick, no upper wick
Advance/Decline: 2.18, more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock
Indexes: SPX (+1.45%), DJI (+0.86%), RUT (+1.86%), VIX (-6.90%)
Sector List: Communications (XLC +2.82%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.42%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.44%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.03%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
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Market Overview
Markets closed sharply higher on Wednesday, led by big tech and broad gains across almost all segments.
The Nasdaq rose +2.08% after a gap-up at open. The strength of the move was supported by higher volume and broad gains across stocks in the index. More than two stocks advanced for every declining stock. A short dip after the open created a lower wick but did not close the gap from yesterday's high. The 76% green body and 100% closing range left behind no upper wick.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) did very well for a third day, gaining +1.86%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose +1.45%, helped by gains from all sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose +0.86%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -6.90%.
All eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Communications (XLC +2.82%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.42%) were the top sectors. Utilities (XLU +0.44%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.03%) were at the bottom.
Crude Oil Inventories were lower than expected. The afternoon's 10y note auction showed strong demand, contributing to a dip in yields.
The US Dollar index (DXY) declined -by 0.07%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y Treasury yield rose. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices increased sharply. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices also rose. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum Futures all increased.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.664. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved toward Neutral but remains in the Fear range.
Of the big six mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) declined. The -0.14% pullback came after several days of gains and resistance at the 50d MA. Meta (FB) reversed from its post-earning losses, rising +5.37% today and helping the Communications sector outperform. Microsoft (MSFT) moved above its 21d EMA with a +2.18% advance today. Alphabet (GOOG) rose +1.57% to close back above its 50d MA.
Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list, gaining +6.36%. The company ended its pursuit toward acquiring ARM, stating regulatory hurdles as the reason. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was at the bottom of the list, declining -by 1.57%.
All stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained today. Enphase (ENPH) rose by +12.03% to top the list. The company beat on earnings and revenue and provided a strong outlook for this year. Zynga (ZNGA) was at the bottom of the list but still advanced by +0.33%.
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Looking ahead
The most anticipated economic news this week comes in the morning. It is the Consumer Price Index data for January which will give a read on inflation. The numbers are due at 8:30a. At the same time, we will get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data.
The earnings season continues to outperform analyst expectations. Tomorrow will bring earnings from Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), Unilever (UL), Datadog (DDOG), DexCom (DXCM), Cloudflare (NET), Twitter (TWTR), Zillow (Z), InMode (INMD), and UpWork (UPWK) among others. Check your portfolio for earnings events as the list is long.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The gap-up for the Nasdaq started above the 21d EMA and the index continued to rise before hitting the 14,500 support/resistance area.
If the one-day trend continues, expect a +0.72% advance for Thursday.
The five-day trend line and trend line from the 1/24 low point to a -0.32% decline.
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Wrap-up
We are getting the types of signal that we like to see before a strong uptrend, but much will depend on what the inflation data tells the market tomorrow morning.
Today's broad gains on higher volume are constructive and represent investors' reactions over a stronger-than-expected earnings season.
We may see a lateral move tomorrow or a dip to fill the gap created this morning. A more severe decline would come if inflation data surprises high. The expectation based on the chart is Sideways or Higher.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
In which phase do you think small caps are?What would be the point of publishing something without making the audience think about it?
Questions:
1- Do you think there is a similarity between this chart and the picture below it?
2-If you think there is a similarity, which phase do you think small-caps are in?
3- do you want to learn more about this type of analysis?
if your answer is yes, you can read the free articles:
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Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
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Daily Market Update for 2/8Summary: Equity indexes were led higher by cyclical and tech sectors while small-caps outperformed for another day, providing the breadth needed for good structural gains. Treasury yields continued higher, reaching levels not seen since the pandemic began.
Notes
In yesterday's (Monday) update, I included Wednesday's set of Economic News and Earning Reports for "Looking Ahead". It was past midnight in the US and I didn't notice I was looking at the wrong day.
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Tuesday, February 8, 2022
Facts: +1.28%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 89%, Body: 72% Green
Good: Closing range, high advance/decline line, volume slightly higher on gain
Bad: Lower high, lower low
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Mostly green body, with short upper and lower wicks
Advance/Decline: 1.7, more than three advancing for every two declining stocks
Indexes: SPX (+0.84%), DJI (+1.06%), RUT (+1.63%), VIX (-6.21%)
Sector List: Materials (XLB +1.55%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.41%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.90%) and Energy (XLE -2.15%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
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Market Overview
Equity indexes were led higher by cyclical and tech sectors while small-caps outperformed for another day, providing the breadth needed for good structural gains. Treasury yields continued higher, reaching levels not seen since the pandemic began.
The Nasdaq rose +1.28%, lifted by big tech and small growth stocks alike. The morning saw a dip lower than the previous day's low, but the index recovered to close with an 89% closing range. The upper wick didn't quite set a higher high. The lower low and lower high are not great but are offset by the 72% green body, high closing range, and higher volume. There were also more than three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the other indexes for a second day, advancing +1.63%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.06%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose by +0.84%. The VIX Volatility Index receded by -6.21%.
Eight of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained, led by Materials (XLB +1.55%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.41%). At the bottom of the list were Real Estate (XLRE -0.90%) and Energy (XLE -2.15%). Although growth sectors did well, the Communications (XLC -0.04%) sector was weighed down by Meta (FB).
Trade Balance data showed the US exporting more goods in December than expected.
The US Dollar strengthened, with the index (DXY) climbing +0.22%. Treasury yields rose for the day and are now at pre-pandemic levels. Although yield levels are returning to pre-pandemic levels, the yield curve is still steep relative to just before the pandemic crash when it was nearly flat. Both the High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Timber prices and Aluminum Futures are both up sharply today. Aluminum Futures are back to a multi-year high.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) increased to 0.743. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range.
Of the big six mega-caps, only Meta (FB) declined, falling another -2.10% and weighing down the communications sector. Amazon (AMZN) continues to advance, gaining +2.20% today and closing just below its 50d MA.
China helped send Alibaba (BABA) to the top of the mega-cap list. The company gained +6.17% after China state-related funds entered the market to provide support. At the bottom of the mega-cap list is Pfizer (PFE). Pfizer declined -by 2.84% after missing revenue estimates in its earnings release.
Peloton topped the Daily Update Growth List for a second day, gaining +25.28% on top of the +20% gain on Monday. Peloton was followed in the list by several Chinese growth stocks. RobinHood (HOOD) was at the bottom of the list for a second day, declining -by 3.81% today.
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Looking ahead
Crude Oil Inventories will be available after the market opens tomorrow. Two Fed officials (Bowman and Mester) speak in the morning. There is a 10-year note auction scheduled for the afternoon.
Toyota (TM ), Walt Disney (DIS), CVS (CVS), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Uber (UBER), Honda (HMC), Yum! Brands (YUM), Twilio (TWLO), and Zynga (ZNGA) are some of the significant earnings reports for Wednesday.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq is nearing the 21d EMA again as it attempts to return to a longer-term upper trend.
The one-day trend line and the trend line from the 1/24 low both point to a +1.26% gain for Wednesday.
The five-day trend line points to a -1.46% decline.
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Wrap-up
Investor sentiment remains at a bearish level. The put/call ratio continues to show a high amount of put hedging. The ratio's multi-day average is at its highest since March 2020. The safe-haven demand component of the CNN Fear & Greed index is high. That means many investors have their money on the sidelines. That is confirmed by the low exposure index from the NAAIM money manager survey.
So when things are this bearish, we're looking for turning points where investors might come rushing back into the market and give us another multi-week or even multi-month gain.
The last three days including Friday, have shown some change in the market. The advance/decline line was above 1.0 all three days which means more stocks gaining than declining. Today, big tech joined the gains as well which helped the Nasdaq move up in addition to small-caps. And support from China state-related funds into Chinese equities also pulls some risk out of the market.
There are no guarantees, but perhaps the market is ready for a solid period of gains, at least until the Fed acts in March.
For tomorrow, the expectation is Sideways or Higher.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 2/7Summary: Small-caps outperformed while Meta continued to weigh on major indexes, creating a volatile day for equities.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Monday, February 7, 2022
Facts: -0.58%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 16%, Body: 39% Red
Good: Higher high, higher low, advance/decline line
Bad: Decline on higher volume, closing range
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low
Candle: Longer upper wick over a red body, low closing range
Advance/Decline: 1.43, almost three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks
Indexes: SPX (-0.37%), DJI (+0.00%), RUT (+0.51%), VIX (-1.55%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.28%) and Financials (XLF +0.30%) at the top. Technology (XLK -0.66%) and Communications (XLC -1.74%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways
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Market Overview
Small-caps outperformed while Meta continued to weigh on major indexes, creating a volatile day for equities.
The Nasdaq was down -0.58% for the day. Volume was higher for the day. A rally in the first 20 minutes created a long upper wick and a higher high than the previous day. The rally faded and eventually the index sold into the close, creating a closing range of 16% under a 39% red body. Despite the decline with higher volume, there were almost three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed for the day as small-caps got some attention, lifting the index by +0.51%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -by 0.37% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) ended the day flat. The VIX Volatility Index declined -by 1.51%.
Five out of the eleven S&P 500 indexes advanced. Energy (XLE +1.28%) and Financials (XLF +0.30%) were the best two sectors. Technology (XLK -0.66%) and Communications (XLC -1.74%) were at the bottom of the list.
The US Dollar index (DXY) declined -by 0.07%. US 30y and 10y Treasury yields rose while the 2y Treasury yield declined. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate bond prices increased. Crude Oil Futures finally declined a big after climbing sharply last week. Aluminum Futures hit a high for 2022.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.729. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the Fear range.
Of the big six mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) ended the day in the positive, gaining +0.19%. Meta (FB) dragged the market down with a -5.14% decline. Alphabet (GOOGL) dropped back below its 50d MA with a -2.86% decline.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) was the top-performing mega-cap for today. At the bottom of the mega-cap list was Alibaba (BABA), declining -by 6.05%.
Peloton (PTON) topped the Daily Update Growth List with a +20.93% swing to the positive. Rumors emerged this weekend that several companies, including Amazon and Nike, were looking at a potential acquisition of the beaten-down company. The biggest loser in the Growth List was RobinHood (HOOD), dropping -by 8.37%.
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Looking ahead
Crude Oil Inventories will be available after the market opens tomorrow. Two Fed officials (Bowman and Mester) speak in the morning. There is a 10-year note auction scheduled for the afternoon.
Toyota (TM ), Walt Disney (DIS), CVS (CVS), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Uber (UBER), Honda (HMC), Yum! Brands (YUM), Twilio (TWLO), and Zynga (ZNGA) are some of the significant earnings reports for Tuesday.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The index whipped up and down today in a sideways move, ending with a sell-off at close for a decline.
If the index returns to the trend line from the 1/24 low, that would mean a +2.56% gain for tomorrow.
The one-day and five-day trend lines point to a -0.37% decline.
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Wrap-up
Investors can expect more twists and turns as the market rotates from one risk asset to the next, looking for returns while reducing exposure to Inflation and Interest rates.
The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 2/4Summary: Amazon helped markets move higher on Friday, but some trepidation remained for investors who are worried about a hawkish Fed.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Friday, February 4, 2022
Facts: +1.58%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 66%, Body: 37% Green
Good: Higher high, good closing range, advance/decline ratio
Bad: Lower low, volume
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low
Candle: Similar length upper and lower wicks with a medium-size green body
Advance/Decline: 1.68, more than three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks
Indexes: SPX (+0.52%), DJI (-0.06%), RUT (+0.57%), VIX (-4.68%)
Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.84%) and Financials (XLF +1.70%) at the top. Real Estate (XRE -1.37%) and Materials (XLB -1.66%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
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Market Overview
Amazon helped markets move higher on Friday, but some trepidation remained for investors who are worried about a hawkish Fed.
The Nasdaq gained +1.58%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has similar length upper and lower wicks with a 66% green body in the middle of the candle. The higher high is great and the closing range is good. However, the lower low in the morning was a surprise and a sell-off before close, creating the upper wick, shows nervous investors heading into a weekend. There were more than three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks.
The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.52% and the Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +0.57%. The Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJI), weighed down by large cyclicals, declined -by 0.06%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) remains elevated but declined by -4.68% today.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.84%) was the top sector for the day, led higher by Amazon. Financials (XLF +1.70%) was the next best sector, helped by rising yields on Treasuries. Real Estate (XRE -1.37%) and Materials (XLB -1.66%) were at the bottom of the sector list.
The employment data released in the morning showed a robust labor market which is good for the economy, but bad for investors who see more reason for the Fed to be hawkish. Nonfarm Payrolls for January defied expectations by adding 467,000 jobs. Analysts expected a much lower number of 150,000 due to Omicron. Average Hourly Earnings increased 5.7% year-over-year, more than the expected 5.2% increase, signaling sticky inflation.
The US Dollar strengthened for the first time in five days. The index (DXY) rose +0.13%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields rose sharply on expectations of a more hawkish Fed. As yields rise, prices drop and Corporate Bond prices follow big moves in Treasuries. Both the High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices were sharply lower for the day. Crude Oil Futures continue to soar higher, rising +3.93% today, likely due to both increased demand outlook and potential supply disruption from possible actions in Ukraine.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) fell to 0.808. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index showed an increase in exposure, rising to 62.54 from 53.39 the previous week. The exposure index is released on Wednesday nights, so does not reflect Thursday's market declines.
Four of the big six mega-caps gained for the day. Amazon (AMZN) added $150 billion to its market cap, the largest rise in history on the day after Meta (FB) recorded the largest market cap loss in history. Amazon gained +13.54% after an exemplary fourth-quarter earnings report and 2022 outlook for the business. Tesla (TSLA) rose +3.61%. Microsoft (MSFT) hit resistance at its 21d EMA but closed with a +1.56% gain. Apple (AAPL) got support at its 50d MA but closed -0.29% lower.
Amazon was the best mega-cap for the day. Bank of America (BAC) was second with a +3.98% gain, followed by Tesla. Novo Nordisk (NVO) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -4.74% decline after missing analyst profit estimates.
Snap (SNAP) topped the Daily Update Growth List with a whopping +58.82% gain after reporting huge user growth and ad sales. Pinterest (PINS) was third on the list, gaining +11.18%. The two smaller players put further pressure on Meta after the top social network blamed Apple and TikTok for declines in their business. D.R. Horton (DHI) was at the bottom of the list, falling -by 4.72% along with the Real Estate sector.
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Looking ahead
It will be a quiet start to the week for economic news with no significant events planned for Monday.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq had an outside day today with the low and high both outside yesterday's low and high. It's representative of continued volatility in equity markets.
If the one-day trend continues, that would follow the trend-line from the 1/24 low and mean a +2.27% gain on Monday.
If the index follows the five-day trend, that would result in a -0.04% decline.
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Wrap-up
Investors are torn between an economy that's continuing to show strength and what that means for Fed action later this year. Will the Fed raise rates three times, four times, six times? Will the March rate hike by 0.25% or 0.50%? Estimates are all across the board among analysts. Those who believe inflation will begin to ease see a more dovish Fed and fewer rate hikes. Those who believe inflation will stay high expect a more hawkish Fed and higher rate hikes.
The expectation for Monday is Sideways or Higher.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 2/3Summary: Meta killed the rally. Perhaps Amazon can restart it.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Thursday, February 3, 2022
Facts: -3.74%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 7% (w/gap), Body: 47% Red
Good: Stayed above 13,800. Lower volume despite gap-down at open.
Bad: Failed intraday rally, low closing range
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Gap-down at open, long upper wick over red body
Advance/Decline: 0.32, three declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-2.44%), DJI (-1.45%), RUT (-1.90%), VIX (+10.23%)
Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.03%) and Health (XLV -0.43%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.06%) and Communications (XLC -6.69%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Lower
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Market Overview
Meta killed the rally. Perhaps Amazon can restart it.
The Nasdaq closed down by -3.74% on Thursday, its worst decline since September 2020. After a gap-down at open, a rally attempt in the morning could close the gap, creating a long upper wick above a 47% red body as the rally turned into more losses. The closing range was 7% with the gap. The only potential positive is the lower volume. There were three declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -by 2.44%, led lower by growth sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -by 1.45%. Small-caps didn't do too bad relatively speaking, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) down -1.90%. The VIX Volatility Index bounced up by -10.24%.
Among the eleven S&P 500 sectors, only Consumer Staples (XLP +0.03%) held in the positive for the day. That was followed by Health (XLV -0.43%) as the next best sector. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.06%) and Communications (XLC -6.69%) were at the bottom of the sector list.
Positive economic data wasn't enough to save sentiment. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims was lower than expected. There were 238,000 claims compared to the forecast of 245,000 claims. In a surprise for the labor market, Nonfarm Productivity for Q4 rose by 6.6% compared to the expected 3.2%. Unit Labor Costs for Q4 were expected to rise 1.5%, but increased by only 0.3%.
Purchasing Managers Index data for the Non-Manufacturing / Services sector were both higher than forecasted. The indexes show the sector is improving, but not quite at the accelerated pace of previous months.
The Bank of England followed through with an expected interest rate hike of 0.25%, bringing the interest rate to 0.50%.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to fall. It declined -by 0.67% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose for the day. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined sharply. Silver and Gold declined. Crude Oil Futures moved ever higher.
The put/call ratio rose to 0.955. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further into the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index showed an increase in exposure, rising to 62.54 from 53.39 the previous week. The exposure index is released on Wednesday nights.
All big six mega-caps declined. Meta (FB) led the way with a -26.39% decline, erasing more than $250 billion in market value and dropping below Tesla (TSLA) in market cap. Ouch. Amazon (AMZN) dropped -7.81% for the day, but is up nearly 15% in after-hours thanks to a great fourth-quarter earnings report. Microsoft (MSFT) dropped back below its 21d EMA with a -3.90% decline.
Only a handful of mega-caps gained for the day. UnitedHealth (UNG) topped the list with a +1.87% gain. The health services provider is heading toward a new all-time high. Amazon and Facebook were at the bottom of the mega-cap list.
In the Daily Update Growth List, only RobinHood (HOOD) and Alibaba (BABA) ended the day in the positive. They advanced +0.93% and +0.48% respectively. Helped to the bottom of the list by Facebook and the communications sector sell-off was Snap (SNAP). Snap declined -by 23.60% for the day. However, the company beat earnings expectations with 42% revenue growth and a first-time net profit. The company soared 60% in after-hours trading.
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Looking ahead
More employment data will be available in the morning. Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate for January are the most significant of the metrics to be released before the market opens.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq fell back below the 21d EMA today and is approaching the 13,800 area which may turn to support.
If the index rallies to return to the trend line from the 1.24 low, that would mean a +4.60% advance for Friday.
The five-day trend line points to a +3.85%.
If the one-day trend continues, that would mean a -1.44% decline.
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Wrap-up
Meta lost more than $250 billion of market cap in one day. That's the largest since Apple's huge loss in 2020. It was enough to have an impact across the entire communications sector and the entire market.
Now we have earnings beats from Amazon, Snap, and Pinterest today. Is it enough to lift indexes back into the recent upward trend? Can we get a breadth of gains across the market on higher volume on Friday? That would help with investor sentiment heading into the weekend.
The big six earnings are all out now. Five of the six mega-caps beat expectations. Four of the six provided positive surprises on guidance as well. Add to that numerous positive reports from the rest of the market, and corporate America appears to be very healthy.
The labor data today is interesting. The slower increase in labor costs could help tame inflation in Q1. Add to that the typical slowdown in shipping which could alleviate high container costs and allow the whole system to unclog. We could start to see opinions change toward how hawkish the Fed will be this year.
As for the chart, I don't count after-hours activity in expectations. So the expectation is still Lower for tomorrow, but we will likely get a surprise Higher.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Daily Market Update for 2/2Summary: The rally in the Nasdaq slowed on Wednesday as investors took profits in some sectors while chasing a more select set of companies turning in great earnings this past two weeks.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Wednesday, February 2, 2022
Facts: +0.50%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 64%, Body: 32% Red
Good: Higher high, higher low, decent closing range
Bad: Red body, lower volume gain, low advance/decline
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low
Candle: Long lower wick under a thin red body
Advance/Decline: 0.52, two declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (+0.94%), DJI (+0.63%), RUT (-1.03%), VIX (+0.59%)
Sector List: Communications (XLC +2.00%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.72%) at the top. Materials (XLB +0.31%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.60%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways
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Market Overview
The rally in the Nasdaq slowed on Wednesday as investors took profits in some sectors while chasing a more select set of companies turning in great earnings this past two weeks.
The Nasdaq gained +0.50% for the day. The index opened with a gap up but declined through the morning to create a long lower wick. The recovery in the afternoon left behind a 32% red body and a 64% closing range. Volume was lower than the previous day. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.94%, led higher by Alphabet's huge gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +0.63%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -by 1.03%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) rose by +0.59%.
Communications (XLC +2.00%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.72%) were the top two of the eleven S&P 500 sectors. Only one sector, Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.60%) declined.
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for January showed a decline of 301,000 payrolls vs an expected increase of 207,000.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued its fall, declining -by 0.29% today. Treasury Yields are relatively steady with small declines across the 30y, 10y, and 2y yield. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices increased. Crude Oil Futures continues to rise. Timber and Copper Futures are also on the rise while Aluminum Futures is falling.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) increased to 0.751. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Fear range.
Four of the big six gained today. Alphabet (GOOG) was the big winner with a +7.52%. The stock was up over 10% intraday, setting a new all-time high but couldn't hold on for a record close. Microsoft (MSFT) rose +1.52% to close above its 21d EMA. Meta (FB) rose +1.25% but is down over 20% after hours, disappointing investors with missed earnings expectations.
Google was at the top of the mega-cap list, followed by Qualcomm (QCOM) which rose +6.25% in anticipation of earnings which turned out great. Despite the great earnings, the stock is down after hours. Alibaba (BABA) is at the bottom of the mega-cap list. The stock remains volatile with a -3.41% decline today.
There were only four stocks with gains in the Daily Update Growth List. Nvidia (NVDA) topped the list, gaining +2.45% today. At the bottom of the list was PayPal (PYPL) which declined -24.59 after missing most business metrics and lowering its outlook in its earnings call yesterday. That also brought down Block (SQ) by -10.63%.
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Looking ahead
The weekly jobless claims will be available before the market opens tomorrow. We'll also have the Q4 Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs data at the same time.
After the market opens, we'll get Non-Manufacturing / Services Purchasing Managers Index data for January that shows if the sector is growing or shrinking in economic activity.
Amazon (AMZN) will round out the big six earnings reports for this season. In addition, we'll get earnings for Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK), Shell (SHEL), Honeywell (HON), Ford Motor (F), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Snap (SNAP), Unity Software (U), Pinterest (PINS), and Paylocity (PCTY). The list of reports for Thursday is long and these are just a few relevant to the Daily Update.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq closed just above the 21d EMA today. The index hit resistance at 14,500 after opening, slid through the morning but regained ground to close higher.
If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a +2.48% advance for Thursday.
The one-day trend line and trend line from the 1/24 low point to a +0.21% gain.
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Wrap-up
Great earnings reports have helped the Nasdaq rally. However, the disappointment on Facebook earnings could derail things tomorrow. Overall, the earnings season is still strong, but the size of Facebook will influence the entire market, especially with a severe reaction to the miss.
Based on the chart the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways, but a move Lower would not be a huge surprise.
Stay healthy and trade safe!