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RUSSELL 2000

Daily Market Update for 10/4Summary: Rising Treasury Yields in the morning had investors exiting positions in Big Tech and Growth stocks, sending indexes lower for another day. However, OPEC held its position on a gradual increase in output despite an energy crunch, and they are still predicting higher demand in the coming months. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, October 04, 2021 Facts: -2.14%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 23%, Body: 75% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Large decline, low advance/decline ratio, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body with tiny upper wick, longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.29, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.30%), DJI (-0.94%), RUT (-1.08%), VIX (+8.82%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.63%) and Utilities (XLU +1.38%) at the top. Communications (XLC -2.16%) and Technology (XLK -2.32%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Rising Treasury Yields in the morning had investors exiting positions in Big Tech and Growth stocks, sending indexes lower for another day. However, OPEC held its position on a gradual increase in output despite an energy crunch, and they are still predicting higher demand in the coming months. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -2.14% decline. The selling started right at the market open and continued through the morning, creating a large red body covering 75% of the candle. The lower wick formed from a slight gain in the afternoon. The closing range was 23%. There were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fared better, only losing -0.94% for the day as the Energy sector helped the index. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.30%. The small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -1.08%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +8.56% for the day. Energy (XLE +1.63%) topped the sector list thanks to Monday morning's OPEC meeting news. The only other two sectors to gain for the day were Utilities (XLU +1.38%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.11%), both defensive sectors. Two growth sectors, Communications (XLC -2.16%) and Technology (XLK -2.32%) were at the bottom of the sector list. OPEC decided to hold output at current levels, predicting higher demand in the next several months. Factory Orders data released in the morning showed 1.2% month-over-month growth compared to the forecast of 1.0%. The US dollar index (DXY) declined -0.29%. US Treasury Yields were up for the day but settled back from a morning spike that panicked investors. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices were down sharply. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices also fell for the day. Crude Oil Futures was up +3.72% today. Copper and Aluminum futures also gained on the day, likely because of the higher-than-expected Factory Orders data. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.759. The CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped back into Extreme Fear. All four of the largest mega-caps had significant declines for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) seem to be getting some support at their current level, while Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are still in free-fall. Merck (MRK) was the top mega-cap for the day, followed by Exxon Mobil (XOM). At the bottom of the mega-cap list was Facebook (FB), which dealt with a multi-hour outage across its large social platforms. Only two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List advanced for the day. Tesla (TSLA) and CloudFlare (NET) ended the day with gains. The worst stocks on the list were Ehang Holdings (EH), Fastly (FSLY), and FUTU Holding (FUTU), all with more than 7% declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Trade Balance data will be available Tuesday morning before the market opens, and the Non-Manufacturing PMI data will come after the opening bell. PepsiCo (PEP) releases earnings before the market open. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq found support at a previous support/resistance level of 14,200. If the index can regain the trend-line from the 9/7 high, that will be a +1.04% advance for Tuesday. The five-day trend line points to a -0.26% decline. A continuation of today's one-day trend line ends with another -1.23% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Fear continues to grow over the debt ceiling discussion in Washington while mini-disasters play out worldwide, from the Evergrande challenge in China to the Energy crunch in the UK. Rising yields and higher inflation are bad news for Big Tech and Growth stocks. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
RUT (Russell 2000 ETF) - Resistance, Support, Trend - 09/05/21RUT has been consolidating between $2123.55 and $2348.03, for this year 2021. Bullish scenario: -RUT price breaks up above resistances to new all-time-highs. -Resistance levels: $2348.03, $2392.66. Bearish scenario: -RUT price pulls back down to test supports below (horizontal and trendline supports). -Support levels: $2240, $2123.55, $2060.54. Note: On the Weekly chart, RUT price has always been consolidating sideways for 2021.
TVC:RUT
by NoFomoCharts
Daily Market Update for 10/1Summary: Markets fell in the morning before bouncing and closing higher as investors returned to reopening trades and went hunting for discounts in the growth sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, October 01, 2021 Facts: +0.82%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 86%, Body: 25% Green Good: High closing range, closed above the 14,500 support area Bad: Big dip in the morning, gain on lower volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long lower wick under a small green body in the upper half of the candle Advance/Decline: Not available today Indexes: SPX (+1.15%), DJI (+1.43%), RUT (+1.69%), VIX (-8.60%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.36%) and Communications (XLC +1.69%) at the top. Health (XLV +0.02%) and Utilities (XLU +0.00%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets fell in the morning before bouncing and closing higher as investors returned to reopening trades and went hunting for discounts in the growth sectors. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.82% gain. Volume was lower than the previous day. The 25% green body sits above a long lower wick that formed in the morning. The index recovered to end the day with a 86% closing range. The lower high and lower low for the day continues a downtrend. Small caps performed well for the day, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) gaining +1.69%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +1.15%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.43%. The VIX Volatility Index declined -8.60% but remains above moving averages. All sectors gained for the day. Energy (XLE +3.36%) and Communications (XLC +1.69%) were at the top of the sector list. Health (XLV +0.02%) and Utilities (XLU +0.00%) were at the bottom. PCE Price Index data was higher than forecast, but not enough to alarm investors. Manufacturing data showed higher than expected activity. Consumer Sentiment numbers were higher than forecast. The US Dollar index (DXY) fell for another day after hitting a 52-week high on Wednesday. Treasury yields also retreated for the day. The gap between long-term and short-term yields is widening. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.737. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into the Fear range after dipping to Extreme Fear earlier this week. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 55.02 from 77.7 the previous week. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained over +2% as investors bought big tech stocks at a discount. Merck (MRK) entered the mega-cap list with a +8.37% gain after announcing an anti-viral pill that lowers the risk of hospitalization and death in COVID patients. Walt Disney (DIS) gained +4.04% for the day after settling a lawsuit with Scarlett Johansson. Alibaba (BABA) sat at the bottom of the mega-cap list with a -2.60% decline. PENN National Gaming (PENN) and DraftKings (DKNG) were at the top of the daily update growth list with +8.52% and +4.98% gains. At the bottom of the list were RH (RH) and Lemonade (MND), both declining more than -3%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is an OPEC meeting scheduled for Monday morning. Factory Orders data for August will be available after the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dipped to 14,300 before recovering and closing above the 14,500 support area. The one-day trend line leads to a +1.65% gain on Monday. Following the trend line from the 9/7 high would result in a -0.40% decline. The five-day trend line ends with a -1.90% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was nice to end the week with a gain in the markets. However, the gain came on lower volume, and the Nasdaq is still in a downtrend. Still, investors seemed optimistic about the economy as they increased bets in reopening trades and shopped for discounts in big tech stocks. It's amazing what a little pill can do for optimism. Thanks Merck! The expectation for Monday is Sideways, while the market determines if today's low was a bottom. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 9/30Summary: The market ended a red month with another red day while investors await action in congress on government funding, the debt ceiling, and the infrastructure bill. September is the first monthly decline for the S&P 500 since January. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, September 30, 2021 Facts: -0.44%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 2%, Body: 71% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Lost support at 14,500, failed after rally precedes new intraday low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick red body at bottom of the candle, longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.71, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-1.19%), DJI (-1.59%), RUT (-0.94%), VIX (+2.57%) Sector List: Communications (XLC -0.31%) and Technology (XLK -0.72%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.80%) and Industrials (XLI -2.05%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market ended a red month with another red day while investors await action in congress on government funding, the debt ceiling, and the infrastructure bill. September is the first monthly decline for the S&P 500 since January. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.44% decline. An afternoon rally failed, and the index set a new intraday low in the last hour of trading, ending the day with a 2% closing range. The 71% red body sits at the bottom of the candle with a long upper wick formed in the morning. Volume was higher than the previous day, marking the third day of distribution for the index. There were more declining than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -1.59% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) ended a red month with a -1.19% decline. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.94%. The VIX Volatility Index remains high with a +2.57% gain today. All sectors declined today. Communications (XLC -0.31%) and Technology (XLK -0.72%) were the best sectors for the day and were in positive territory before the late afternoon selling. Investors see opportunities to buy growth stocks at a discount. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.80%) and Industrials (XLI -2.05%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Revised GDP data for Q2 came in slightly higher than expected at 6.7% quarter-over-quarter. Initial Jobless Claims were worse than expected for another week and are trending higher. The US Dollar index (DXY) fell slightly for the day after hitting a 52 week high yesterday. US Treasury Yields fell back from their recent gains. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices declined for the day. Silver and Gold climbed +3.03% and +1.82% as alternative safe-haven investments. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum all fell sharply for the day. The put/call ratio rose to 0.870 as investors grew more bearish. The CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped into the Extreme Fear area. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 55.02 from 77.7 the previous week. All four largest mega-caps (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL) declined for the day and traded below their key moving average lines. Only a handful of stocks in the mega-cap list gained today. Netflix (NFLX) topped the list with a +1.88% gain. At the bottom of the list was Oracle (ORCL), with a -4.52% decline. The stocks in the Daily Update Growth List did not do too bad considering the index performance, with most of the stocks in the list gaining for the day. Roku (ROKU) was at the top of the list with a +3.44% gain. RH (RH) declined sharply after topping the list yesterday, losing -4.04% today. The losses may be related to the ominous message in Bed Bath & Beyond's (BBBY) outlook for the holiday season. During its earnings call, the company gave a bleak message, sending the stock tumbling by over 20%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The biggest news will come overnight as Congress votes on key legislation to fund the government, raise the debt ceiling, and pass the infrastructure bill. In the morning, inflation data will be made available for August. The PCE Price Index data comes before the market opens. After the market opens, we'll have a new ISM Manufacturing PMI, which shows activity in the manufacturing sector. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dropped below the 14,500 support area. The 21d EMA crossed below the 50d MA. If the index can return to the trend line from the 9/7 high, it would result in a +0.87% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a -0.15% decline. The five-day trend line ends with a -1.08% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There shouldn't be any surprises here if you've been following the updates. The indexes chopped up and down the past few days without any progress in Washington over funding the government and raising the debt ceiling. The sell-off in the last hour today was investors protecting against bad news tonight. At the same time, growth sectors led the day as some investors took the opportunity to buy positions at a discount. Now we wait. Based on the chart and three days of distribution, the expectation is for Sideways or Lower tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 9/29Summary: Two failed rallies for the Nasdaq ended in a decline for the day while the Dow Jones completed the day with a gain. Growing concerns about the debt ceiling debate in Washington and continued inflation in the economy have Investors playing defense. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, September 29, 2021 Facts: -0.24%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 10%, Body: 56% Red Good: Held support above 14,500 Bad: Red body, lower high, lower low, close lower on high volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick red body in lower part of the candle Advance/Decline: 0.52, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.16%), DJI (+0.26%), RUT (-0.20%), VIX (-2.97%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.31%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.91%) at the top. Technology (XLK -0.13%) and Materials (XLB -0.41%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Two failed rallies for the Nasdaq ended in a decline for the day while the Dow Jones completed the day with a gain. Growing concerns about the debt ceiling debate in Washington and continued inflation in the economy have Investors playing defense. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.24% decline. Volume was higher than the previous day. The closing range of 10% comes after two intraday rallies. Eventually, the 56% red body in the bottom of the candle led the index to rest above the 14,500 support area at the close. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.26% as the NYSE had more gainers than losers for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed with a +0.26% gain, but the Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.20%. The VIX Volatility Index fell -2.97% but remains high. Utilities (XLU +1.31%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.91%) were at the top of the sector list. Investors fled to defensive sectors to protect against further volatility. Growth and cyclical sectors were at the bottom of the list, with Technology (XLK -0.13%) and Materials (XLB -0.41%) performing the worst for the day. Pending Home Sales grew 8.1% in August vs. the forecast of 1.4%. Crude Oil Inventories were at 4.6 million barrels compared to a forecast of -1.7 million barrels. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose another +0.68% for the day, reaching its highest level since October 2020. Treasury Yields eased back slightly from recent gains. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose for the day while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices remained about the same. Silver declined -4.10% for the day. Gold also fell, losing -0.52%. The put/call ratio dropped to 0.729. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Fear area. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) were able to find support and end the day with gains. Alphabet (GOOGL) continued to tumble, losing another -1.09% today. Eli Lilly (LLY) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +3.95%. The company got an upgrade from Citigroup to a Buy rating and a new price target of $265. Netflix (MFLX) also performed well, gaining +2.61% after acquiring the video gaming company Night School. Alibaba (BABA) was the worst performer in the mega-cap list, declining -3.16%. The Daily Update growth list was mostly decliners for today. RH (RH) was the best performer, topping the list with a +1.65% gain. JD.com (JD) and Ehang Holding (EH) were at the bottom of the list, both losing more than 5% as Chinese stocks dropped lower today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead We will get an update on Q2 GDP numbers tomorrow morning. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will also be available before the market opens. Several Fed officials will speak in the morning. Don't expect any significant updates on funding for the government or the debt ceiling until a scheduled vote late in the evening on Thursday. Paychex (PAYX), CarMax (KMX), and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) are a few interesting earnings reports to watch out for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq had two failed rally attempts today before closing just above the 14,500 support area. If the index returns to the trend line from the 9/7 high, that would mean a gain of +0.88% for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a -0.39% decline. The five-day trend line ends with a -0.82% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There is not much to do other than wait for what happens in Washington over funding for the government and the debt ceiling. A default on US debt is not likely, but fear and doubt will continue to grow until the debate finishes. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 9/28Summary: Stocks fell on Tuesday among fears that the US government could shut down and default on its debt if there is no agreement in Congress to raise the debt ceiling this week. Treasury yields rose while interest-rate sensitive Technology stocks led markets lower. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, September 28, 2021 Facts: -2.83%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 2%, Body: 87% Red Good: Support above 14,500 Bad: Gap down at open, sell-off thru morning, close below key moving averages Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, small upper wick, smaller lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.17, almost six declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.04%), DJI (-1.63%), RUT (-2.25%), VIX (+23.93%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +0.34%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.60%) at the top. Communications (XLC -2.44%) and Technology (XLK -2.96%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stocks fell on Tuesday among fears that the US government could shut down and default on its debt if there is no agreement in Congress to raise the debt ceiling this week. Treasury yields rose while interest-rate sensitive Technology stocks led markets lower. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined -2.83% for the day. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle is 87% red body with small upper and lower wicks, and the closing range is 2%. There were nearly six declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -2.25%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -2.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -1.63%. The VIX Volatility Index soared +23.93%. Energy (XLE +0.34%) was the only sector to gain for the day. Real Estate (XLRE -0.60%) was the next best sector but declined more than a half percent. The worst two sectors for the day were Communications (XLC -2.44%) and Technology (XLK -2.96%). Consumer Sentiment released in the morning came in lower than forecast. Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen warned Congress that an economic crisis would occur if politicians did not agree to raise the debt ceiling. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose to its highest in 2021 with a +0.34% gain today. The US 2y Treasury Yield rose to its highest point since March 2020, while the 30y and 10y yields reached their highest level in three months. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices dropped sharply. Gold declined as the US dollar strengthened. Crude Oil Futures continue to rise. Timber fell significantly for the day. Aluminum Futures reached back to record highs. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.836. the CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Extreme Fear but remained in the Fear range. The largest four mega-caps led the market lower, with all four closing below their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines in a clear breakdown of support. Only two mega-caps, Alibaba (BABA) and Exxon Mobil (XOM), gained on the day. Nvidia (NVDA) incurred the most significant loss with a -4.44% decline. Technology and Communications stocks dominated the bottom of the mega-cap list. Alibaba was also the only gainer in the daily update growth list. Cloudflare (NET) was the biggest loser in the list, with a -7.92% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories become available after the market opens. The more important news will be any progress in Washington toward raising the debt ceiling. Jabil (JBL) releases earnings before the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dipped well below its 21d EMA and 50d MA before getting support above the 14,500 area. The one-day trend line points to another -0.61% decline for tomorrow. A return to the five-day trend line ends with a +1.05% advance. Getting back to the trend line from the 9/20 low would result in a +1.98% gain on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up When we approached the Fed's tapering decision last week, I thought we might see higher yields and a 2-3% or worse decline following the news. Instead, it's taken the fear of a government default on debt to scare investors out of stocks and bonds finally. What can we expect from here? As with all politics, we can expect a lot of drama and a long, drawn-out decision. Unless surprise progress is made, fears will only grow as we approach Janet Yellen's estimate of October 18th as the day the government will run out of funding. Yields will continue to rise as investors demand higher returns for higher risk as the government heads toward possible default. Technology and Growth stocks will continue to head lower. The expectation for tomorrow is lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 9/27Summary: Despite gains in the broader market, the technology sector weighed down the Nasdaq as Treasury yields increased. Core Durable Goods orders exceeded pre-pandemic levels and showed high demand for transportation items such as airplanes. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, September 27, 2021 Facts: -0.52%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 76%, Body: 11% Green Good: Rebound off the intraday low at the 50d MA Bad: Close below the 21d EMA, decline on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin green body in upper half of the candle Advance/Decline: 1.26, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.28%), DJI (+0.21%), RUT (+1.46%), VIX (+5.69%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.56%) and Financials (XLF +1.36%) at the top. Health (XLV -1.42%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.66%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Despite gains in the broader market, the technology sector weighed down the Nasdaq as Treasury yields increased. Core Durable Goods orders exceeded pre-pandemic levels and showed high demand for transportation items such as airplanes. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.52% decline after dipping more than one percent in the morning. Volume was higher than the previous day. After the morning dip, the index trended up for the rest of the day before pulling back from the late-afternoon intraday high. The thin green body in the upper half of the candle shows an indecisive day for the Nasdaq while the broader stock market rose. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rallied in the morning as investors rotated into small caps. The index rose +1.46% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also gained for the day, advancing +0.21%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.28%, weighed down by Technology mega-caps. Cyclical sectors dominated the top of the sector list, with Energy (XLE +3.56%) and Financials (XLF +1.36%) leading the way. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.54%) was the only non-cyclical sector to gain for the day. Defensive sectors were at the bottom of the list, with Health (XLV -1.42%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.66%) having the most significant losses. Durable Goods Orders rose 1.8% in August compared to the forecast of 0.7%. However, Core Durable Goods Orders, which excludes transportation items, rose only 0.2% compared to a forecast of 0.5%. Demand for transportation items rebounded to exceed pre-pandemic levels. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.14%. Treasury Yields on both long-term and short-term notes rose while the gap tightened. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell. Crude Oil Futures headed higher for the day, while aluminum futures fell back from record highs. The put/call ratio declined to 0.518, a very bullish level. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the center of the Fear range. All four largest mega-caps declined for the day, moving back below critical moving average lines. Of the four, Microsoft (MSFT) had the most significant decline, losing -1.73%. Alibaba (BABA) was at the top of the mega-cap list with a +3.52% gain, followed by Energy and Financial mega-caps that gained over 2%. At the bottom of the list was Adobe, with a -3.06% decline. The daily update growth list had mixed results. The best performer for the day was GrowGeneration (GRWG), which gained +4.77%. CloudFlare (NET) was the biggest loser, declining -5.79%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Confidence data will be in the spotlight tomorrow after the market opens. Other data released in the morning includes Goods Trade Balance and Retail Inventories. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock numbers will be available after the market closes. The Fed's Jerome Powell will update Congress on the economic recovery and Fed monetary policy. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq tested the 50d MA and closed below the 21d EMA. After the morning dip, the index trended up for the rest of the day. If the one-day trend were to continue, it would lead to a +0.58% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 9/20 low point to a +0.97% gain for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Higher yields and a strengthening USD are both going to place downward pressure on Technology stocks. The economic context that's creating the rising yields and dollar is supportive to small-caps and cyclicals. Based on the indecisive candle with a small green body, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 9/24Summary: Markets rallied for a third day on an improved economic outlook, bolstered by the Fed's Jerome Powell, who stated the economic decline and rally back to health is without modern precedent. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, September 24, 2021 Facts: -0.03%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 84%, Body: 71% Green Good: Close above 21d EMA, support in the ~15,000 area Bad: Close lower, lower high Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Inside day, mostly green body Advance/Decline: 0.55, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.15%), DJI (+0.10%), RUT (-0.49%), VIX (-4.72%) Sector List: Communications (XLC +0.82%) and Energy (XLE +0.75%) at the top. Health (XLV -0.41%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.14%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets rallied for a third day on an improved economic outlook, bolstered by the Fed's Jerome Powell, who stated the economic decline and rally back to health is without modern precedent. The Nasdaq closed slightly lower and on lower volume than the previous day. Although a lower close, the day was dominated by buyers after a dip at open. The closing range of 84% shows buyers took the day. However, there were two declining stocks for every advancing stock, indicating investors were very particular on where to place investments. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.15% for the day while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.10%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.49%, pulling back from two days of significant gains. Communications (XLC +0.82%) and Energy (XLE +0.75%) were the top sectors for the day. Defensive sectors were at the bottom of the list again, with Health (XLV -0.41%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.14%) having the worst losses. New Home Sales exceed forecasts. The reported 740,000 sales compared to the estimates of 714,000. Jerome Powell spoke in the morning on the economy, and he highlighted how businesses are working around the challenges of the pandemic. US Treasury Yields rose for a second day. The gap between long and short-term notes expanded. The US Dollar index gained +0.21%. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined to the day. Crude Oil prices continued to march higher. The Put/Call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.696. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the Fear area, moving back toward Neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 77.7 from 87.02 the previous week. Three of the four largest mega-caps are trading above the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Only Apple (AAPL) remains below the key moving averages. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.71%, helping the communications sector rise to the top of the sector list. Costco (COST) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +3.31% after announcing it was putting purchase limits back on some items such as toilet paper. The problem is not just over-purchasing, as seen earlier in the pandemic, but also because of shipping delays and supply chain disruptions. Nike (NKE) declined -6.26% and ended the day at the bottom of the mega-cap list. The company announced earnings that showed excellent growth but lowered sales forecasts due to supply chain issues. The daily update growth list was dominated by decliners today. SNAP (SNAP) ended the day as the top stock in the list with a +4.71% gain, lifting higher with the rest of the communications sector. Gains quickly tapered off into losses as we moved down the ranking. UP Fintech (TIGR) was the worst-performing stock in the list, declining -7.34%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Durable Goods Orders for August will be available on Monday morning. John Williams and Lael Brainard of the FOMC are to make comments later in the morning. There are no interesting earnings reports for the Daily Update on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dipped below the 21d EMA in the morning but could recover and close above the line in the afternoon. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 9/20 low point to a +0.98% gain on Monday. The one-day trend line ends with a +0.52% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Today marks one year for the Daily Market Update. It started out looking very different, but I'm proud to have written an update every single trading day for the past year, learning a ton along the way. Still learning a lot every day. Thanks to those who've read, liked, and commented on the updates this past year. Despite some profit-taking ahead of the weekend, Friday was not a bad way to close a choppy week which started with a very bearish move on Monday. The pivot was undoubtedly the Fed's statements on Wednesday that showed optimism for the economy while still not signaling an overly rushed bond tapering. Based on today's result, the expectation for Monday is sideways or higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
4
Daily Market Update for 9/23Summary: The Fed's reassurances on the economic outlook from Wednesday turned investors optimistic and sent indexes higher. Energy and Financials topped the sector list for a second day, two sectors that often lead the market out of a slump. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, September 23, 2021 Facts: +1.04%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 78%, Body: 60% Green Good: High A/D ratio, mostly green body Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Mostly green body with small upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 2.05, two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.21%), DJI (+1.48%), RUT (+1.82%), VIX (-10.73%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.50%) and Financials (XLF +2.45%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.49%) and Utilities (XLU -0.53%) at the bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Fed's reassurances on the economic outlook from Wednesday turned investors optimistic and sent indexes higher. Energy and Financials topped the sector list for a second day, two sectors that often lead the market out of a slump. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +1.04% gain. Volume was lower than the previous day. The 78% closing range is above a 60% green body surrounded by short upper and lower wicks. The upper wick formed as the index faded from the intraday high in the afternoon. The morning rally was enough to get the Nasdaq back above its 21d EMA line and remain above the critical support line in the afternoon. Small-caps led the day with a gain of +1.82% for the Russell 2000 (RUT). The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.21% and +1.48%, respectively. The VIX Volatility Index tumbled -10.73%. Energy (XLE +3.50%) and Financials (XLF +2.45%) were at the top of the sector list for a second day. Defensive sectors went to the bottom of the list, with Real Estate (XLRE -0.49%) and Utilities (XLU -0.53%) being the only two declining sectors today. Cyclicals dominated the top of the list as we move out of the slump, and investors see more growth in the near term. Initial Jobless Claims were higher than expected, but not enough to raise concern. The Manufacturing and Services PMI were just below targets but not too far off to cause an issue. Overall, things look optimistic for the economy, supporting the Fed's outlook on the recovery. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasuries all rose sharply for the day. The US Dollar index declined -0.38%. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose for the day while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell. Crude Oil prices were higher on Thursday. Timber continues to climb. Aluminum Futures is making new record highs. Copper declined slightly after a sharp advance yesterday. The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.571 for the day as investors grew bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into the Fear area after dipping into Extreme Fear earlier in the week. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 77.7 from 87.02 the previous week. All four largest mega-caps advanced for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) climbed back above their 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are approaching their key moving average lines but still closed below them today. Salesforce.com (CRM) updated guidance in the morning, which sent the stock to the top of the mega-cap list with a +7.21% gain. Big Banks and Big Oil dominated the other top mega-cap spots. Only four mega-caps declined, with Alibaba (BABA) having the worst performance of the day, declining -0.46%. The daily update growth list had a great day, but not all stocks enjoyed the rally. At the top of the list were Palantir (PLTR) and Digital Turbine (APPS), with gains of over 4.5%. The worst-performing stock in the list was RobinHood (HOOD) which declined -2.01% after soaring more than 10% yesterday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead New Home Sales data becomes available after the market opens on Friday morning. The Fed's Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 10a on Friday morning. Friday's earning reports include Carnival Corp (CCL). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose above the 15,000 support area and its 21d EMA today. The trend line from the 9/20 low points to another +1.13% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line ends with a +0.58% gain. The five-day trend line shows a -0.68% decline for tomorrow, a move back below the 21d EMA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up New optimism helped close the gap from Monday's open, and we are just barely in the positive for the week. One more day of gains could turn what felt like a bearish week earlier into quite a constructive week to build on in the rest of September. We have Energy and Financials leading us out of a slump. We have good breadth across the market, with small-caps outperforming. Volume remains elevated as we move higher, with higher highs and higher lows the last three days. All that momentum sets an expectation for Higher tomorrow. Knock on wood. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 9/22Summary: The Fed's optimistic view on the economy and reluctance to set an exact timeline for bond tapering got a positive reaction from investors. The US Dollar strengthened while the Treasury yield curve flattened. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, September 22, 2021 Facts: +1.02%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 71%, Body: 53% Green Good: Gain on higher volume, high closing range with close above 50d moving average Bad: Longer upper wick from fade after intraday high, but not terrible Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Large green body under a long upper wick Advance/Decline: 1.85, almost two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.95%), DJI (+1.00%), RUT (+1.48%), VIX (-14.33%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.08%) and Financials (XLF +1.67%) at the top. Communications (XLC -0.05%) and Utilities (XLU -0.06%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Fed's optimistic view on the economy and reluctance to set an exact timeline for bond tapering got a positive reaction from investors. The US Dollar strengthened while the Treasury yield curve flattened. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.02% gain. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle has a 53% green body with a 71% closing range. The upper wick is longer than the lower wick and formed after a fade from the intraday high set in the mid-afternoon. The morning half of the session was very bullish and brought the index above the 50d moving average line. There were almost two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed with a +1.48% gain. The Fed's outlook is particularly supportive to small caps as big tech and large caps benefited from the slump last year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.00%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.95%. Energy (XLE +3.08%) and Financials (XLF +1.67%) were the top sectors for the day. Communications (XLC -0.05%) and Utilities (XLU -0.06%) were the only two declining sectors. The Fed reiterated previous comments that the economy is still progressing despite headwinds from the Delta variant and that inflation remains transitory in their view. They will begin bond tapering soon, and more Fed officials see an interest rate hike in 2022 to be likely, with another in 2023. The fact that the fed did not announce a firm date on bond tapering while still maintaining a positive outlook on the economy is the likely cause of the very positive reactions from the market. The announcement that Evergrande in China would make its bond interest payment this week, after announcing earlier that it would delay the payment, gave investors confidence heading into the morning. The US Dollar (DXY) strengthened another +0.26%. 30y and 10y Treasury Yields dropped sharply while the 2y Treasury yield gained, flattening the yield curve. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Investment Bonds prices gained for the day. Crude Oil, Timber, Copper, and Aluminum all gained with Aluminum Futures shooting back to a new record high. The put/call ratio rose for the day, ending at 0.729. The higher ratio is likely from speculative bets placed before the Fed's announcement. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into Fear but remained near the Extreme Fear level. The largest four mega-caps gained for the day but still have some work to do to get above their key moving average lines. Nvidia (NVDA) and Netflix (NFLX) were the leading mega-caps of the day, gaining more than 3%. Facebook (FB) tumbled -3.99% after the company admitted that Apple's privacy changes are impacting its business. Adobe (ADBE) also lost more than -3.07% despite a strong earnings report that beat estimates. Investors took some profits while some analysts still believe the stock is overpriced. The majority of stocks in the daily update growth list gained for the day. RobinHood (HOOD) topped the list with a +10.85% gain after it announced it would add cryptocurrency wallets to its offering. Digital Turbine (APPS) was second in the list with a +7.48% gain. Peloton (PTON) was at the bottom of the list with a -6.31% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims data will be available on Thursday. Manufacturing and Services PMI will give an indication of economic activity. Nike (NKE), Accenture (CAN), and Costco (COST) will release earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rallied in the morning to rise above its 50-day moving average line. It neared the 15,000 support/resistance, setting the intraday high just after the Fed's announcement. It closes the day just above the 50-day moving average line. The one-day trend line points to a +0.76% gain for tomorrow to continue the rally. If the index returns to its downtrend, the trend line from the 9/7 high points to a -1.27% decline. The five-day trend line ends with a -1.69% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Fed has carried a careful tone throughout the pandemic. While delivering a positive outlook for the economy, the Fed's Jerome Powell noted that much still depends on the pandemic. He announced that bond tapering would start soon but did not set a hard date for beginning or a deadline for when to complete the tapering. Although interest rate hikes are now likely in 2022, officials still see the 2022 and 2023 interest rate rises to be small. The higher close on higher volume today and closing above the 50d moving average line show strength. There was resistance in the ~15,000 area, which may continue in tomorrow's session. The expectation is for Sideways or Higher tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 9/21Summary: Equity markets chopped up and down to end sideways while Treasury yields rose as investors remained cautious ahead of the Fed announcements on Wednesday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, September 21, 2021 Facts: +0.22%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 33%, Body: 38% Red Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Choppy day, faded into close Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Small body in between two equal size wicks Advance/Decline: 0.94, more declining stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.08%), DJI (-0.15%), RUT (+0.18%), VIX (-5.25%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +0.23%) and Health (XLV +0.15%) at the top. Communications (XLC -0.42%) and Industrials (XLI -0.53%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Equity markets chopped up and down to end sideways while Treasury yields rose as investors remained cautious ahead of the Fed announcements on Wednesday. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.22% gain. Volume was lower than the previous day. The 38% red body sits in the middle of the candle with equal-sized upper and lower wicks. The closing range is 33%. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) ended the day with an advance, gaining +0.18%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.08%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was off -0.15%. The VIX Volatility Index fell -5.25%. Five sectors ended the day with gains. Energy (XLE +0.23%) and Health (XLV +0.15%) were at the top of the sector list. Communications (XLC -0.42%) and Industrials (XLI -0.53%) at the bottom. Building Permits and Housing Starts showed a more bullish outlook for the economy, with both exceeding forecast. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock also showed higher demand than expected. The US Dollar weakened slightly, with the index declining -0.02%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields rose for the day while the 2y remained flat. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose for the day while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices remained the same. Gold and Silver both rose for the day. Copper and Aluminum futures continue to drop. Timber prices rose, likely on the positive Building Permits data. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined the last two days sharply, likely from investors positioning for a strengthening US Dollar. The put/call (PCCE) ratio dropped to 0.604. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Extreme Fear area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead US Existing Home Sales data and Crude Oil Inventories updates come in the morning. The Bank of Japan will make a Monetary Policy Statement overnight. This week, nothing is more significant than the Fed meeting and the statements coming at 2p on economic projects and interest rate decisions. Investors are looking for comments on when bond tapering will begin. General Mills will release earnings on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq chopped up and down in today's session, showing indecision in the market ahead of the Fed announcements. The one-day trend line points to another gain of +0.20% tomorrow. The trend line from the 9/7 high ends with a -0.19% decline. The five-day trend line shows a -1.06% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Tomorrow is the big day. The Fed will likely make a firm announcement around bond tapering, and we'll get an update on when Fed officials see interest rate hikes happening. But just as important will be the Economic Projections and the Fed's view on inflation which some experts see as easing for the remainder of the year. What should happen after that is the US Dollar strengthening and Treasury Yields rising. Those two moves will put downward pressure on mega-caps and growth stocks. We'll likely get another 2-3% decline in the indexes over the subsequent two trading sessions. If the reaction is worse, we could see the Nasdaq visit the 200-day moving average, which it has not touched since April 2020. There is the possibility that investors already priced in some of this news. It shouldn't come as a surprise to them that bond tapering will begin, and interest rate timing estimates will likely be pulled forward. If the Fed is more dovish than expected, we could have an opposite reaction and see a rally through the end of the week. That leads to the chart and the indecision in today's candle. The indecision in the candle and big economic event tomorrow leads to an expectation for Sideways, only because I don't allow myself to put an "I don't know." :) Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 9/20Summary: The narrow gains that held up markets last week turned into broad selling today, causing a sharp decline in all four major indexes. Fears that China's Evergrande would default on credit obligations exasperated worries over the health of the economy. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, September 20, 2021 Facts: -2.19%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 59%, Body: 14% Red Good: Support at 14,500 turned to late afternoon rally Bad: Gap-down, selling all-day Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin red body with a longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.14, seven declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.70%), DJI (-1.78%), RUT (-2.44%), VIX (+23.55%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU -0.93%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.24%) at the top. Financials (XLF -2.74%) and Energy (XLE -4.22%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The narrow gains that held up markets last week turned into broad selling today, causing a sharp decline in all four major indexes. Fears that China's Evergrande would default on credit obligations exasperated worries over the health of the economy. The Nasdaq closed -2.19% lower, after plunging almost -3.5% intra-day. The gap-down at open put the index below its 50d moving average line. After the morning sell-off, a rally in the last hour of trading brought the index back to a 59% closing range. The result is a small red body in the middle of a short upper and long lower wick. Volume was higher than average, albeit lower than Friday's extraordinarily high volume. The Russell 2000 (RUT) performed the worst among the major indexes, declining -2.44%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -1.70%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) dropped -1.78%. The VIX Volatility index was up 38.41% intraday but ended the day with a +23.65% gain. All sectors declined for the day. Utilities (XLU) and Real Estate (XLRE) were the best performing sectors as investors turned to safe-havens. Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE) were the bottom two sectors for the day. During the rally in the final hour, Financials and Energy performed best as they attempted recovery from significant losses. US Treasury Yields declined for the day as the gap continues to close between long-term and short-term yields. High Yield (HYG) corporate bonds sold off sharply while Investment Grade (LQD) corporate bond prices increased. Commodities were down across the board except for Gold which rose for the day. The put/call ratio rose to 0.833. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved into Extreme Fear. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL) all gapped down at open. Only Microsoft and Alphabet (GOOGL) closed the day above their 50d moving average. Only two mega-caps, Pfizer (PFE) and Eli Lilly (LLY) gained for the day. The worst performing mega-cap was Alibaba (BABA), declining more than -5%. The daily update growth list also had only two advancing stocks, Paycom (PAYC) and Chewy (CHWY). Chinese stocks UP Fintech (TIGR) and NIU (NIU) were the worst performers in the list, declining -8.6% and -9.2%, respectively. China's Evergrande made public over the weekend that they may not meet debt obligations due on Thursday. Some compare the possible default of the property giant with the failures of Lehman Brothers in the financial crisis. However, many experts believe the speculative comparison is incorrect. Nonetheless, it gave investors another thing to worry about on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts data will be available on Tuesday. Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), and AutoZone (AZO) are earnings reports to watch out for on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dove well below its 50d moving average line. The selling continued until just above the 14,500 area. A rally in the last hour recovered some of the losses. The trend line from the 9/7 high points to a +0.50% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line ends with a -0.02% decline. Such a sideways move for the index would be a welcome pause. The one-day trend line leads to another -2.27% decline for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Fears on top of a weak market last week turned into panic on Monday. It seemed some sanity entered back into the picture with the final hour of buying. Maybe the economy is ok. Maybe Evergrande isn't so much of a doomsday event. Maybe, but we'll have to see how the market carries itself tomorrow ahead of the Fed's announcements on Wednesday. The expectation is for Sideways or Lower on Tuesday. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Market Week in Review - 9/13/2021 - 9/17/2021Summary: Positive economic news couldn't break through the September blues, making for a choppy week in the markets. Investors are balancing good economic data with the possibility that Fed may start bond tapering soon. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. View on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "View on the Week." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, September 13, 2021 Facts: -0.07%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 40%, Body: 57% Red Good: Closed above the 21d EMA Bad: Two dips below 21d EMA, couldn't hold intraday high at open Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Red body in upper half of candle with a long lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.73, more declining than advancing Indexes: SPX (+0.23%), DJI (+0.76%), RUT (+0.59%), VIX (-7.54%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.87%) and Financials (XLF +1.14%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.18%) and Health (XLV -0.62%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The OPEC Monthly Report provided a positive outlook for the economy, stating that oil demand would exceed pre-pandemic levels next year. That sent oil futures and the Energy sector higher and turned investors more optimistic on value stocks and the re-opening trade. The Nasdaq closed the day with a -0.07% decline. Volume was higher than the previous day. The index started with a gain but quickly sold as investors rotated out of growth stocks and back into value stocks. The Nasdaq dipped below its 21d exponential moving average twice but was able to close above the line. The closing range of 40% is under a red body that covers more than half of the candle. There is a long lower wick with a tiny upper wick. More stocks declined than advanced on the Nasdaq. Notably, there were two advancing stocks for every declining stock on the New York Stock Exchange. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, September 14, 2021 Facts: -0.45%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 17%, Body: 76% Red Good: Support above 15,000 Bad: Mostly red body, lower high, lower low. a/d ratio Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body with small upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.28, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.57%), DJI (-0.84%), RUT (-1.37%), VIX (+0.46%) Sector List: Health (XLV -0.02%) and Technology (XLK -0.13%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.34%) and Energy (XLE -1.44%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower US Treasury Yields slid after the morning's consumer price index data added more confusion to the economic picture. Is lower than expected inflation a good thing or a bad thing? What does it mean for Fed monetary policy? The unanswered questions equate to risk for investors, sending them to safer bets. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.45% decline. Volume was lower than the previous day. The 76% red body represents a bearish day ending with the closing range of 17%. There were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, September 15, 2021 Facts: +0.82%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 93%, Body: 48% Green Good: Support at 15,000 sent started a rally into afternoon Bad: Could not break above yesterday's high Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long lower wick formed from morning sell, green upper body Advance/Decline: 1.31, more advancing than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.85%), DJI (+0.68%), RUT (+1.11%), VIX (-6.58%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +3.74%) and Industrials (XLI +1.10%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.36%) and Utilities (XLU -0.13%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Stocks rose on Wednesday after Crude Oil supplies signaled much higher demand than expected. That boosted the Energy sector by more than 3.5%, and the improved optimism drove broad gains across the market. The Nasdaq gained +0.82% for the day after getting support at 15,000 in the morning. The 48% green body led to a 93% closing range. Volume was lower than the previous day, and there were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The index could not break yesterday's high, so it is still in a downtrend, but the long lower wick formed from the bounce off 15,000 led to a rally in that afternoon that has potential. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, September 16, 2021 Facts: +0.13%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 85%, Body: 39% Green Good: Higher high, good closing range Bad: Dip below 21d EMA, low A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Short body in upper half of candle, long lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.81, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.16%), DJI (-0.18%), RUT (-0.07%), VIX (+2.81%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.46%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.19%) at the top. Materials (XLB -1.08%) and Energy (XLE -1.13%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways Better than expected Retail Sales data help the Consumer Discretionary sector advance to the top of the sector list. However, rising Treasury Yields subdued other sectors and sent three of the four major indexes to losses for the day. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.13% gain after dipping in the morning. The 39% green body is in the upper half of the candle, with a long lower wick representing the morning decline. After hitting the intraday low, the index rose through the afternoon to end with an 85% closing range. Volume was lower than the previous day, and there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, September 17, 2021 Facts: -0.91%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 27%, Body: 71% Red Good: Support at 15,000 Bad: Close below 21d EMA, lower high Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body with a small lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.82, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.91%), DJI (-0.48%), RUT (+0.18%), VIX (+11.34%) Sector List: Health (XLV +0.10%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.35%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.56%) and Materials (XLB -2.06%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Indexes closed lower while volume soared on quadruple-witching Friday. Only the Russell 2000 was able to end the day with gains. The Nasdaq moved back below its 21d EMA with a -0.91% decline today. Volume was more than 50% over average daily volume due to index and stock options expiration. The candle is primarily red body with a small lower wick. The closing range of 27% came after a rally before close. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- View on the Week Positive economic news couldn't break through the September blues, making for a choppy week in the markets. Investors are balancing good economic data with the possibility that Fed may start bond tapering soon. The week opened with the OPEC monthly report stating that oil demand will meet or exceed pre-pandemic levels by next year. That was a more robust outlook for oil and translates to a better global economic outlook. The new optimism focused investors on value and reopening stocks. As the week progressed, however, the better economic data for the US raised expectations that the Fed would begin tapering bond purchasing soon. While inflation data on Tuesday was slightly below forecasts, it was still high. Retail sales data on Wednesday was better than forecast and Crude Oil inventories on Thursday showed higher demand than expected. After Treasury Yields dipped on Monday and Tuesday, they turned sharply higher through the rest of the week. The US Dollar also strengthened significantly on Thursday and Friday, with the DXY dollar index climbing +0.84% over the two days. The next Fed meeting comes next week and investors are positioning for the news on bond tapering. Equities continue to slump as investors focus on specific safe bets and value stocks. The Advance/Decline ratio for the Nasdaq has only been above 1.0 once in the past ten trading days. However, there has not been a rotation into defensive sectors. Utilities declined 3% this week. The past two weeks looks more like a typical September slump than the start of a correction. The Nasdaq declined -0.47% for the week. Volume was higher than the previous week because of a spike in volume on quadruple-witching Friday. The closing range is 26%, the second week in a row of low closing range. Small-caps in the Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed this week, advancing +0.42% and ending the week with a 74% closing range. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost only -0.07% for the week. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.57%. The VIX volatility index declined -0.67%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Sectors Energy ( XLE ) topped the sector list this week after the OPEC Monthly Report on Monday projected that demand for oil would exceed pre-pandemic levels by next year. The sector also got a boost from Crude Oil Inventories data released on Wednesday that showed much higher demand than expected. Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) moved into second place after great Retail Sales data on Thursday. Utilities ( XLU ) and Materials ( XLB ) were the bottom two sectors for the week. Although markets were lower this week, investors did not flee to defensive sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.65% for the week. US Treasuries 30y yield declined for the week. The 10y and 2y yield both rose. The 2y yield also rose. The 30/5 spread declined for a second week. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced for the week. Silver and Gold fell for another week. Crude Oil rose for the week on a improved outlook from OPEC and better than expected demand in Crude Oil inventories deata. Timber declined for the week. Copper and Aluminum futures declined this week after big moves last week. Aluminum is still near record highs. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) bounced up and down this week, ending the week at 0.747. The CNN Fear & Greed Index moved back to Fear and is approaching Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 87.02 from 84.68 the previous week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Microsoft (MSFT) had an all-time record close on Thursday before selling off on Friday. The stock is up +1.41% for the week and trading above key moving average lines. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined this week but remain above their 10w and 40w moving average lines. Apple (AAPL) moved below its 10w moving average line with a -1.95% decline this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was the only of the four cryptocurrency to gain for the week, advancing +2.68%. Litecoin (LTCUSD) soared on fake news that Walmart would establish a relationship with the digital currency. The gains were quickly given back after Walmart acknowledges the news was false. The currency ended the week with a -3.94% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. Watch for news on the $3.5 trillion budget that will include a corporate tax hike. There are no relevant earnings reports for Monday. Tuesday Building Permits and Housing Starts data will be available on Tuesday. Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX) and AutoZone (AZO) are earnings reports to watch out for on Tuesday. Wednesday US Existing Home Sales data and Crude Oil Inventories updates come in the morning. The Bank of Japan will make a Monetary Policy Statement overnight. Nothing is more important this week than the Fed meeting and the statements to be made at 2p on economic projects and interest rate decisions. Investors are looking for statements on when bond tapering will begin. General Mills will release earnings on Wednesday. Thursday Initial Jobless Claims data will be available on Thursday. Manufacturing and Services PMI will give an indication on economic activity. Nike (NKE), Accenture (CAN), and Costco (COST) will release earnings on Thursday. Friday New Home Sales data becomes available after the market opens on Friday morning. The Fed's Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 10a on Friday morning. Friday's earning reports include Carnival Corp (CCL). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Economic data this past week shows that despite a soaring number of COVID cases in the US, the economy continued to march forward. Retail sales data in August was higher than expected, showing positive signs of growth for the US. And the forecast from OPEC is a continuing rise in demand for oil, providing an optimistic outlook for the global economy. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Although the data is a positive sign for the economy, the equities markets may react in a very different way. Bond tapering signals and end to easy money policy and the path toward higher interest rates. In addition, investors are bracing for the $3.5 trillion budget passing with an increase in corporate taxes. Despite the potential for growth in the economy, high valuations in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq will need to correct for all these headwinds. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq closed below its 21d EMA, but found support at 15,000 during several dips. If support at 15,000 is broke, there is another 1% to 2.5% drop before an additional support area created by trading in July and August. It's easier to see on the QQQ chart, with a volume profile. On the positive side, the levels are: The 10d moving average is at 15,191.90. This week's high is at 15,215.44. The all-time high is at 15,403.44. The index met several days of resistance around 15,400. 15,500 may be the next area of resistance. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The 21d EMA is at 15,090.88. 15,000 is an area of support, tested several times this week. The low of the week is 14,984.68, just below Friday's close. The 50d MA is at 14,875.47. 14,423.16 is the low of the most recent pullback. 14,200 remains a critical level if the index moves downward. 14,000 has been an area of support/resistance. There is a pivot at 13,903.73. A further pullback would likely hit the 200d moving average at 13,844.89. The index hasn't approached this line since rising above it in April 2020. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The September slump continues, but so far the markets are holding up well. The momentum will almost certainly move in one direction or the other after the Wednesday afternoon Fed comments on the economy and interest rate hikes. More important in the immediate future is any decisions they make on bond purchase tapering. Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 9/17 Summary: Indexes closed lower while volume soared on quadruple-witching Friday. Only the Russell 2000 was able to end the day with gains. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. The Daily Market Update growth list is here: www.tradingview.com It is not a list of all growth stocks, and the stocks in the list are not recommendations. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, September 17, 2021 Facts: -0.91%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 27%, Body: 71% Red Good: Support at 15,000 Bad: Close below 21d EMA, lower high Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body with a small lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.82, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.91%), DJI (-0.48%), RUT (+0.18%), VIX (+11.34%) Sector List: Health (XLV +0.10%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.35%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.56%) and Materials (XLB -2.06%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Indexes closed lower while volume soared on quadruple-witching Friday. Only the Russell 2000 was able to end the day with gains. The Nasdaq moved back below its 21d EMA with a -0.91% decline today. Volume was more than 50% over average daily volume due to index and stock options expiration. The candle is primarily red body with a small lower wick. The closing range of 27% came after a rally before close. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the only index to gain for the day, advancing +0.18%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.91%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.48%. The VIX Volatility index rose +11.34%. Only the Health (XLV +0.10%) sector ended the day with gains. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.35%) was the second-best sector but declined for the day. Technology (XLK -1.56%) and Materials (XLB -2.06%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Michigan Consumer Sentiment data was slightly lower than expected. The US Dollar strengthened by +0.41%. Treasury Yields continue to rise as bond investors anticipate the Fed to begin tapering bond purchases later this year. Both High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices tracked along with Treasury prices to close lower. Silver dropped another -2.33%, while Gold remained about the same. Timber declined -1.40%. Aluminum is holding near record-high levels. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose 0.747. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved closer to Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 87.02 from 84.68 the previous week. All of the four largest mega-caps declined. Microsoft (MSFT) closed just above its 21d EMA. Amazon (AMZN) also is above its 21d EMA and 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) dropped below its 21d EMA, and Apple (AAPL) moved below its 50d MA. The mega-cap list had only ten advancing stocks for the day. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) was the top gainer with a 6.49% advance. The company provided strong guidance on growth at its investor's day event. PayPal (PYPL) was at the bottom of the list, declining -2.34%. Digital Turbine (APPS) was the top gainer in the daily update growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. Watch for news on the $3.5 trillion budget that will include a corporate tax hike. Also, look for any signs from the Fed that bond tapering will begin. There are no relevant earnings reports for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved back below the 21d EMA but found support above 15,000. If the five-day trend line continues into Monday, it will end with a +0.22% gain. The trend line from the 9/7 high points to a -0.48% decline. The one-day trend line ends with a -0.75% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up A broad sell-off comes during a week of ups and downs among robust economic data. A positive for the economy, the data raises the possibility of the Fed tapering bond purchases faster. The result is rising yields on Treasury bonds and a strong US dollar, and both apply downward pressure on big tech and growth stocks. Add to that the potential for increased corporate taxes eating into earnings, and investors can expect further declines in the major indexes. The expectation for Monday is sideways or lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321