NASDAQ Time to move more aggressively to the tech sector!Nasdaq (NDX) may be underperforming on its August recovery relative to the other indices (S&P500 and Russell 2000) but as the monthly candle closes today, there is a very encouraging signal coming from an index ratio that shows that this may be the time to get heavier on tech.
We will use the Russell 2000 index (RUT) as it represents a wider array of companies and place it against Nasdaq on the RUT/NDX ratio. Naturally over the years (this 1M chart shows data since 2006), the ratio declines within a Channel Down as historically the riskier tech sector attracts more capital and grows more.
However there are instances where Russell gains more against Nasdaq. We are currently though at a time where this isn't the case as the ratio seems to be under a consolidation that on previous fractals (March 2015, September 2008) led to more decline, thus gains for Nasdaq.
As you can see, this movements can be grasped by the Sine Waves, though not perfectly, but still goo enough to understand the cyclical pattern we're in, also with the help of the 1M RSI Triangles.
Nasdaq (which is represented by the blue trend-line) has started massive expansion Channel Up patterns following this unique signal given by the RUT/NDX ratio. The first was right after the 2009 Housing Crisis bottom and the second during the 2015/ 2016 E.U., VW and Oil crisis.
As a result, this could be an indication that even though the last crisis we had was 2022 Inflation Correction, Nasdaq may be starting a new bullish wave of massive gains against the rest of stock indices.
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RUSSELL 2000
Russell may rock n’ roll on rate cut and soft landing hopesRussell 2000 futures sit on uptrend support, making Friday’s close important following Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.
To get excited about US small caps, you need a soft economic landing and lower borrowing costs given many of its constituents are unprofitable and reliant on capital markets. Given Powell will discuss rate cuts and flag confidence in the Fed’s ability to stick a soft landing, it comes across as recipe for upside.
With the uptrend nearby, traders could initiate longs around these levels or even a touch lower with a stop loss below the level for protection. Should the price break 2186.4, there’s little in the way of visible resistance until the record highs.
If the trade works in your favour, consider raising you stop to entry level or higher, providing a free hit on upside. Good luck!
DS
RUSSELL starting a 1 year rally at least, targeting 3500.Ten months (October 7 2023, see chart below) ago we made the ultimate buy call on Russell 2000 (RUT) based on a 15-year Cyclical pattern:
As you can see the index made a straight up rebound on the 1M MA100 (green trend-line), while at the same time holding the Previous All Time High (ATH) Support. Excluding the black swan event of COVID, the ATH Support Zones have held every time since the 2009 Housing Crisis bottom, initiating the next Bull Phase of the Cycle.
This is representative of economic conditions thus far and this model shows that technically, we can only get higher from here. The index has just completed the 1st rebound phase (green ellipse) and is effectively supported by the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). The 3 times that this happened during this 15 year Cycle, a Channel Up followed that easily broke above the ATH and peaked the Cycle on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from ATH - bottom.
As a result, as long as the 1M MA50 holds, we are more bullish than ever on the Small Caps, targeting long-term 3500 (Fibonacci 2.0 extension).
Note: Every time the 1M RSI breaks above its MA trend-line again following a Bear Phase, the new Bull Cycle begins. We have displayed that with the ellipse patterns.
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US small cap bounce unconvincing despite risk revival The recovery in US small caps has been unconvincing over the past fortnight, struggling for upside unlike mega-cap rivals. Russell 2000 futures have been capped below the 50-day moving average for much of this period, running into sellers constantly above this level. Wednesday’s rejection above 2132.6 warns of building reversal risk, putting a potential break of uptrend support on the cards should US slowdown fears return.
If the price were to break the uptrend, traders could enter shorts with a tight stop either above the level or the 50-day moving average for protection, depending on your target. On that subject, the 200-day moving average or 1920 are levels to consider. If the price were to hold the uptrend, a close above the 50-day moving average would negate the bearish setup.
MACD and RSI continue to generate bearish signals on momentum, making selling rallies the preferred strategy near-term. Good luck!
DS
Small 'n Furious. Early 2020's Signaling A Big Midcap Run AheadThe Russell 2000 trailed the S&P 500 significantly in 2023, gaining about 17% compared to a gain of about 24% for the large cap index. That underperformance has spilled over into 2024. Year-to-date, the Russell 2000 is about 2% compared to a 7% gain in the S&P 500.
By the way, that valuation measures make the small cap Russell 2000 index much more compelling when compared to the S&P 500.
Small caps relative to the S&P 500 on a price-to-book basis is back to where it was in 1999, which was the absolute low and was a launch point of 12 years of outperformance for small caps.
As of January 31, 2024 small caps price-to-book ratio is 2.01, as it described on FTSE Russell 2000 Index Factsheet.
Like a sensationally increased shares of Supermicro NASDAQ:SMCI or e.l.f. Beauty Inc NYSE:ELF , I believe many other small cap stocks can be the best ideas for 2024, in part because of that participation in the ongoing stock market rally is improving and is no longer concentrated in just ultra-mega-cap tech stocks, like it was in 2023.
If so-called breadth improves in the stock market, then small cap stocks will catch a bid.
There are three factors will help to boost small-cap stocks in 2024.
First, fund flows into the stock market are necessary for small cap stocks to outperform. If retail funds aren't flowing into the stock market, then funds likely aren't flowing into small cap stocks.
That have changed already in late 2023 as investors start to warm up the stock market.
To be clear, let's take a look at lower technical graph, so-called "AUM", or AMEX:IWM assets under management chart, that is one of the most important ETFs metrics. While it's been correlated pretty well with IWM price action over the past two years, last December has changed the rule, as managed assets smartly jumped to almost historical highs.
Second, small cap stocks are highly levered and tend to have a higher cost of capital, so a decline or no more hikes in interest rates should benefit small cap stocks much more than large cap stocks.
To be clear, let's compare two graphs: for actual U.S. Interest Rate and Expected on Dec, 2024 Interest Rate.
Finally, an expansion in economic growth could be a "huge tailwind" for small cap stocks as they are highly exposed to the domestic economy.
An overlooked area of the stock market is set to soar in 2024 after significantly underperforming the S&P 500 last year.
In technical terms, AMEX:IWM graph is near to break its 52- and 104-weeks highs, to deliver the price 50 percent higher after a breakthrough, like it did it before, on the hottest ever edge of 2020 and 2021.
$RUT FANTASTIC STRENGTH, $NDX is the opposite!WOW what a phenomenal day!
There was HUGE volume on the TVC:RUT AMEX:IWM & it closed near the highs of the day!!!
NASDAQ:NDX on the other hand had heavier than normal volume and closed near the lows of the day
Add to the misery, bearish engulfing was formed today. NASDAQ:QQQ
Did we just see the initiation of money rotation?
Navigating Frothy US Equities with S&P SpreadsNavigating frothiness in US equities requires both caution and tact. With the S&P 500 nearing its all-time high amid flashing recession signals, investors must be vigilant with volatility during upcoming earnings season, driven by outsized expectations.
This paper explores the persistent recession indicators and forces at play during upcoming earnings. The paper posits a spread trade using CME’s Micro E-Mini futures (Long S&P 500 and Short Russell 2000) to maintain upside potential with reduced downside risk.
RECESSION RISKS PERSIST AS RATES REMAIN HIGH
On Friday, the PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred gauge) showed inflation cooling to 2.6% in May, in line with expectations. Price pressures are slowly abating.
Numbers aside, the broader economic landscape presents a complex picture.
Signals from the job market point to unemployment claimants at a record high for the past two and a half year with job openings shrinking drastically. Personal earnings were higher than anticipated in May (0.5% vs 0.4%), but spending was below expectations. Consumers are being more cautious. Mint Finance covered these nuances in a previous paper .
Housing is flashing weakness as new housing starts hit a four-year low in May. Soaring prices and steep mortgage rates are weighing on demand.
The Fed’s policy path remains unconfirmed. However, consensus point to a rate cut as early as September. Even if that happens, rates are expected to decline gradually.
Source: CME FedWatch
Despite risk of recession, the S&P 500 has had an exemplary showing this year, trading near their all-time high. YTD performance of 15% in 2024 has been far higher than the 74-year average of 4%.
Yet, the performance has been increasingly top-heavy. Nvidia, Apple, and the rest of the tech titans have contributed much of the gains in the broad S&P500 index as it is market cap weighted. The index is heavily reliant on and sensitive to the performance of these mega-caps.
The equal-weighted S&P 500 index is up only by 4% in sharp contrast. The spread between the S&P 500 and its equal-weighted counterpart is near its highest point since 2008. The spreads between the S&P 500 and both the Russell 2000 and S&P Midcap indexes have reached multi-decade highs.
Outperformance was re-affirmed after the recent earnings season. Mega-caps crushed EPS and revenue expectations and reported phenomenal guidance while other stocks, especially utility and energy sector reported revenue and EPS figures below estimates according to FactSet report .
Rallies in mega-cap stocks are being driven by idiosyncratic tailwinds, such as advancements in AI. Meanwhile, slowing consumer spending in the US is raising concerns for the broader market.
RISK OF SHARP CORRECTION WARRANTS SPREAD POSITION
According to FactSet , Q1 earnings season was positive. Only 19% of firms reported earnings below expectations. Actual average EPS YoY growth for the index was 5.9% (above 3.4% expected as of March 31).
Frothiness in the equity market is palpable. Consistent outperformance by mega caps is baked into investor expectations. Strong earnings are already factored into prices, as evidenced by the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 28.38x (far higher than the 10-year average of 20x translating to a 42% above average earnings expectations). Average P/E ratio in the best performing tech sector is even higher at 37.47x.
Even minor shortfalls in guidance or revenue/earnings can lead to significant corrections in such a climate. The FactSet reports that 31.8% of firms which beat earnings EPS estimates by up to +5% saw average price decline of -0.9%.
Source: FactSet Research
In fact, overall, positive earnings only drove a 0.9% increase in price (1% 10Y historical average) while a negative earnings report led to 2.8% drop (-2.3% 10Y historical average).
Source: FactSet Research
Market frothiness elevates risk of a sharp price correction in single names during Q2 earnings. Analysts are concerned as expectations for Q2 EPS YoY growth have been lowered from 9% on 31/March to 8.8% as of 22/June.
Despite this, mega-caps remain in solid position. Robust demand for AI, buoyant advertising revenue, globalized revenue streams, and substantial market dominance have positioned them to continue growing at a disproportionate rate.
In case the upcoming Q2 results pan out similarly to Q1 in favor of mega-caps, the S&P 500 will continue to outperform the broader market indices.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
The S&P 500, with its high concentration of mega-cap stocks, is likely to perform better than broader market indices in the coming earnings season. However, recession signals are also flashing.
The S&P 500 does not perform well during recessions. Over the last four recessions, it has declined an average of -14%. Comparatively the spread between S&P 500/Russell 2000 spread has increased 1.7%.
The S&P 500/Russell 2000 spread has also outperformed during the six-month preceding recessions.
Given the S&P 500-Russell 2000 spread's historical outperformance during recessions, a spread position presents less downside risk compared to an outright long position in the S&P 500.
This strategy also maintains a bullish outlook on the top-heavy S&P 500's potential to outperform in the upcoming season.
Moreover, the spread trade preserves the upside potential in the ongoing rally, as its performance has been comparable to an outright long position in the S&P 500.
A view on the spread between the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 can be expressed using CME Micro E-Mini Equity futures. At 1/10th the size of the full-size E-mini futures, the Micro contracts allow for smaller trades with more granular exposure.
A long position in the Micro E-Mini S&P 500 futures expiring in September (MESU2024) can be offset by a short position on 2 x Micro E-Mini Russell 2000 futures expiring in September (M2KU24). This position is highly margin-efficient as CME offers margin credit for this spread.
Hypothetical trade set up in summary requires entry at 2.69x, with a target at 2.78x coupled with stop loss at 2.6x.
The simulated payoffs are described below.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Russel 2000 - Consolidation into Q3
Hey Guys,
For this Index the Consolidation period has been there since the big Engulfing Candle on the Yearly Chart happened in 22.
To become bullish again Russel has to move beyond 2280 (-1625 is the lower end with a mid-point of 1940)…
Until then I will take a neutral bias towards this Index. Most likely we will consolidate on the 3D Chart between the two white lines - Demand and Supply Lines from the Quarterly Chart. Keep in mind that the Blue Box is the High of 23 and the Red Box Constitutes the Middle Line of 22.
I am looking to go long from the lower part and short from the upper part of the Consolidation - until a break occurs.
Normally I would enter on the 4h or 2h Chart but I will break it down to the 1H Chart because I like to take entries from there (Risk - Reward wise).
Thanks for reading
RUSSELL 2000 to bottom soon on the 1D MA200.Last time we looked into Russell 2000 (RUT) on May 09 (see chart below), we expected a technical pull-back, and even though it gave one more week of upside, the index eventually did start to correct:
As mentioned then, we see similarities with the January - March 2022 Bear Flag but mirrored (Bull Flag). That pattern made a Double Bottom on the 1980 Symmetrical Support. Since however it was the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) that offered the most recent Support (April 15), we expect the Double Bottom to take place this time on it.
The 1955 symmetrical level would be a fair projection but overall even on the current prices, the index is a solid R/R buy opportunity. Our Target is intact at 2293 (Resistance 2).
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RUSSELL 2000 preparing for a long-term rally.Last time we looked at Russell 2000 (RUT) on April 01 (see chart below), we called for a pull-back towards the Symmetrical Suport Zone, which as you see took place and the price immediately rebounded:
We are now at the top of the Channel Down, which so far is a mirror of the January - March 2022 Channel Up and technically is the Handle of the long-term Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern and a Bull Flag. As long as the index remains within the Flag, one last test of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is possible but our long-term Target of 2293.0 (Resistance 2) remains intact.
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Dow and Russell could extend lowerDow and Rusell2k have rallied back and may be finding seller supply at current levels. If prices go lower and fail to hold recent support, then an extension of the down move could be in play.
The majority of the gains stocks have been from the ai and magnificent 7 stocks (nvidia, amazon, tesla, microsoft, apple, google, meta). These stacks are a larger percentage of the sp500 and nasdaq than the dow and russell. The rest of the economy may not be fairing as well as the implied moves of the magnificent 7 which is attracting all the momentum money.
Higher rates affecting funding costs would hit industrials in the dow and the small businesses more in the russell2k.
RUSSELL 2000 Bottom of Channel Up. Buy signal.Russell 2000 reached the bottom of the (1d) Channel Up on a symmetric -9.20% bearish leg, like the one before.
It is holding above the MA100 (1d), same with August 25th 2023, which was also a -9.15% decline but the rebound failed to close over the MA50 (1d) and resumed the downtrend.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price and as long as daily candles are closed over the MA100 (1d).
2. Sell if a daily candle gets closed under the MA100 (1d).
Targets:
1. 2230 (+13.61% rise like the bullish leg before).
2. 1830 (-15.63% decline from the top, like the March 24th 2023 low).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is on a pattern consistent with -9.20% declines. It is approaching the 30.00 oversold limit.
Please like, follow and comment!!
RUSSELL 2000 Testing key 2022 Resistance. Rejection or breakout?Russell 2000 (RUT) finally hit our 2140 Target, which we called for on our last pull-back and buy signal (December 28 2023, see chart below):
Even before that signal, we caught the ideal bottom buy for a full bullish swing:
At the moment the situation is different as the index is on full bullish technicals, having hit the 2140 Resistance which was formed by the March 28 2022 High. Needless to say, breaking above this 2-year Resistance opens the way for a Resistance 2 (2293) test.
We believe the key here lies on the 1W (weekly) closing. As long as Russell fails to close a 1W candle above Resistance 1, we will wait for a buy on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). If it falls and closes even below the 1D MA50, we will add a last buy on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and the top of the Symmetrical Support Zone, where all candles of the Jan - March 2022 Bear Flag closed.
Our expectation is that this uptrend will form a Bull Flag, in similar fashion as the 2021/22 downtrend formed a Bear Flag. If on the other hand the index does close a 1W candle above Resistance 1, we will have a technical bullish break-out and on that occasion, we will buy on the spot. In all cases our medium-term Target will be 2293 (Resistance 2).
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$QQQE & $RUT show breadth is not as bad as they're saying$QQQW is the equal weight NASDAQ:NDX and it is at an all time high, forming a cup. The question is, "Will it form the handle & breakout"?
TVC:RUT is in an uptrend but facing trouble at resistance.
This shows that breadth is not as bad as they paint it to be. However, it could be a lot better.
AMEX:IWM
U.S. Small Cap 3000 makes new ATH but U.S. Small Cap 2000 lagsU.S. Small Cap 3000 - TVC:RUA
✅A new ATH breaking above the Dec 2022 ATH
U.S. Small Cap 2000 - TVC:RUT
🚨Continues to demonstrate relative weakness
Light Blue by area on the chart 🔵
The U.S. small cap 3000 finally caught up with the other major indices such as the SP:SPX and NASDAQ:NDX as it previously has been demonstrating relative weakness failing to make new highs. That changed with the close of last week.
The U.S. Small Caps 3000 index is inclusive of the large cap 1000 Index. The 3000 index also uses market capitalization-weighted methodology. This means the larger 1000 companies have a greater impact on the indexes performance. This may explain why the 3000 index is out performing the 2000 small caps index by a wide margin. The Small caps 2000 is a better representation of the of small-cap stocks/businesses whose market capitalization is about $250 million to $2 billion
🧐 So the 1000 Large-Cap stocks direct the majority of the small cap 3000 index's performance. The heavy spearhead of the index is the 1000 large caps.
The S&P 500 Index tracks the largest 500 publicly traded companies, with exposure to 80% of U.S. stocks, compared to the U.S. Small Cap 3000’s 96% in U.S. Stocks
🧐 So the small caps 3000 index is a very concentrated index made up of primarily large U.S. stocks, even more concentrated by the S&P500
Divergence in Progress
On this chart you can see that in Dec 2022 the U.S. Small Cap 3000 index made a new high whilst the 2000 index made a lower high. This was a warning signal at the time that prices were about to roll over. This is not a guaranteed signal however it is something to watch out for and it appears to be in progress again at present. We can add it to our armory of risk indicators that can, when used in aggregate, help inform us of probable outcomes (not guaranteed outcomes). One would hope the Small Cap 2000 would base here or make a new high.
We can continue to watch these two indexes and see how they move together for an indication of things to come.
You can find this chart on TradingView and hit play to see how they are moving in lockstep.
PUKA
$DJI now in short term downtrend, NDX, SPX & RUT already wereLooks like the TVC:DJI is in a short term downtrend.
NASDAQ:NDX SP:SPX & TVC:RUT all are in short term down trends which begin couple days or so ago.
TVC:VIX is at higher end of the recent pattern and it keeps poking it.
*(TOOK THIS FROM ANOTHER POST
Remember, the more something is poked the weaker it becomes
Picture paper holding a marble
Poke with a needle
Poke enough & that marble falls
Same works to the upside)*
The TVC:TNX or10 yr #yield looks to be setting up decently on the 4hr intraday.
#stocks
RUT 2K Fell 17.50% After the Last U.S. Credit DowngradeIf you haven`t bought the RUT 2K regional Double Bottom here:
On Tuesday, Fitch Ratings downgraded the US debt rating from the highest AAA rating to AA+, citing "a steady deterioration in standards of governance."
This downgrade occurred following last-minute negotiations among lawmakers to secure a debt ceiling deal earlier this year, which put the nation at risk of its first default.
Following a similar credit downgrade in the past, the RUT 2K Russell 2000 experienced a sharp decline of 17.50% within a three-month period. S&P, one of the three major credit rating firms, downgraded U.S. debt on Aug. 5, 2011, after another significant debt ceiling battle.
Presently, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.15%, reaching its highest level since November 2022.
Even though is not likely, a 17.50% decline will lead to a Price Target of $1630 for RUT 2K.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
RUT 2K Price Prediction for 2024If you haven`t bought the Double Bottom on RUT 2K:
Then you probably know that small caps haven`t participated in the 2023 market rally.
That`s why I believe investors will will for opportunities in the small cap stocks in 2024, and Russell 2000 index might offer a bigger return than the S&P this year.
My price prediction for RUT 2K is $2560 by the end of the year.
RUSSELL 2000 on a 20 month High! Is it sustainable?Russell 2000 (RUT) gave us an excellent buy entry on our last call (see chart below), as we achieved the most optimal buy near Support 2 and rallied all the way to our 2000 Target:
The Resistance Zone broke and this delivered a new 20-month High on the index, the effect of which is more accurately seen on the 1W time-frame. The question is, how sustainable can this rally be?
Well as the 1W RSI is only 3 points away from getting overbought (70.00) for the first time since March 2021, having also entered the 2 year Higher Highs Zone, it becomes less and less sustainable. In fact a less risky medium-term strategy would be to start selling and target the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). That is where we will reverse to a buy and target Resistance 1 at 2140.
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OUTSIDE DAY for ALL major averagesWhat a turnaround for ALL the MAJOR averages!
As we've been saying over and over again.......
The END OF DAY IS WHAT MATTERS!!!
*Indices formed an OUTSIDE DAY*
Outside days can signify 2 things:
CONTINUATION
OR
REVERSAL (of the current trend)
Being that the day ended lower, LIGHT VOLUME though, we will take this as a WARNING!!!!!!!
RSI fell pretty hard, #stocks could just experience profit taking for a bit.
__________________________________________
TVC:VIX roaring & seems 2b stronger this time around.
TVC:DXY close to support and seems to be trying to base again.
2 Yr #yield showing positive divergence.
10Yr oversold - don't see anything out the norm in either one of these, yet at least.
$RSP & $RUT performing better at the moment, vs $SPXAMEX:RSP vs AMEX:SPY
Equal weight vs regular #SP500
We can see that equal weight has been performing better
Russell 2000
TVC:RUT is no longer stuck in a rut :)
It had a fake breakout in the daily charts in August but look at it now.
That weekly is looking Nicely!
We've stated a few times that we believed these 2 would be moving better than normal averages.
We also said TVC:DJI would keep leading, it has. Another new All time high.
Another call, NASDAQ:NDX should surpass, it's more aggressive.