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RUSSELL 2000

Daily Market Update for 5/11Summary: A gap down must have shocked the bulls into action as the major indices crawled their way back up from morning lows. The results show a rotation happened underneath a market sell-off. Growth stocks benefited from the rotation while the broader market had more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 11, 2021 Facts: -0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 89%, Body: 87% Good: Solid green body as bulls take over after gap down Bad: Lower high, lower low, lower close Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick green body with short upper wick and high closing range Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.87%), DJI (-1.36%), RUT (-0.26%), VIX (+11.09%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +0.33%) and Communications (XLC -0.29%) were top. Financials (XLF -1.77%) and Energy (XLE -2.57%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A gap down must have shocked the bulls into action as the major indices crawled their way back up from morning lows. The results show a rotation happened underneath a market sell-off. Growth stocks benefited from the rotation while the broader market had more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Nasdaq closed down -0.09% on lower volume. Despite a thick green-bodied candle, the lower high, lower low and lower close continue a downtrend that's in its ninth day. The body covers 87% of the candle with a closing range of 89% under a thin upper wick. Two stocks declined for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the next best major index with a -0.26% decline. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.87%. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) closed with a -1.36%, gapping down after setting a new all-time high yesterday. The VIX volatility index advanced +11.09% after being up more than 20% intraday. Only Materials (XLB +0.33%) ended the day with gains while Communications (XLC -0.29%) was the second best sector. Financials (XLF -1.77%) and Energy (XLE -2.57%) moved the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.12%. The US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury yields all rose for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.865. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains at neutral, moving just slightly to the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) was the only big four mega-cap to gain for the day, advancing +1.05% to get back above the 50d MA after gapping down at open. Apple (APPL) declined -0.74%, closing below its 50d MA. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.38% but was able to climb back above the 40d MA before close. Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.95% and closed below its 21d EMA. At the top of the mega-cap list were PayPal (PYPL), Netflix (NFLX), Adobe (ADBE) and Amazon (AMZN). Most mega-caps declined for the day. The biggest decliners include Exxon Mobil (XOM), Oracle (ORCL), Home Depot (HD) and Chevron (CVX). Growth stocks had a great day, especially considered against the major indices. Fastly (FSLY), Palantir (PLTR), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Fiverr (FVRR), and Chewy (CHWY) were top gainers with advances above 5%. All of these could be marking bottom pivots if rotation continues into growth. At the bottom of the growth stock list were Draft Kings (DKNG), RH (RH), GrowGeneration (GRWG) and DR Horton (DHI). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Price Index data for April will be released on Wednesday. An indicator of inflation, the numbers will be watched closely. Crude Oil Inventories will be updated in the morning after market open. The 10y treasure note auction will be in the afternoon. Toyota Motor (TM) along with a large number of Japanese company earnings reports will be released on Wednesday. Some other interesting reports will include Dynatrace (DT) and Bumble (BMBL). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The Nasdaq remains below the 50d moving average line. The one-day trend, if it continues, would result in a +1.69% gain. That would bring the index back above the 50d MA. The five-day trend line points to a -0.36% decline tomorrow. Following the trend-line from the 4/29 high would result in a -0.83% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's not clear to me why investors decided to jump back into growth stocks today. Perhaps they see a bottom and wanted to catch it. Or it's possible that a record amount of shorts on passive instruments such as ETFs is reversing and a short squeeze is underway. Or even a gamma squeeze as market makers cover the positions. Highly shorted ETFs have included tech and growth stocks as well as the QQQ ETF itself. So predicting where things will go next may be difficult. Expect a reaction, for better or worse, to the consumer price index data being released tomorrow, which will provide a view on inflation. I have some hope that the worst is already priced in and if the data shows less inflation than expected, we could get a boost. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/10Summary: Inflation looms over big tech and growth stocks like an approaching hurricane, keeping investors wondering when and how big it will hit. Last week's jobs data supported the government's case that there is still support needed for economic recovery and that inflation is transitionary. But a shutdown oil pipeline over the weekend has investors worried. And the coming updates on consumer and producer price index data are causing them to take a cautious stance. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 10, 2021 Facts: -2.55%, Volume higher, Closing range: 0%, Body: 100% Good: Nothing Bad: All red body, selling from open to close with a failed rally of the 50d MA Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Marubozu red, no upper or lower wick Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.74%), DJI (+0.66%), RUT (+1.35%), VIX (-9.24%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.01%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.76%) were top. Communications (XLC -1.92%) and Technology (XLK -2.52%). Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Inflation looms over big tech and growth stocks like an approaching hurricane, keeping investors wondering when and how big it will hit. Last week's jobs data supported the government's case that there is still support needed for economic recovery and that inflation is transitionary. But a shutdown oil pipeline over the weekend has investors worried. And the coming updates on consumer and producer price index data are causing them to take a cautious stance. The result was a big hit to big tech and growth stocks as the Nasdaq closed with a -2.55% decline on higher volume. The ominous marubozu candle has no upper and lower wick. It is 100% red body with a 0% closing range. The high of the day was the open and the low of the day was the close. There was a brief rally as the index hit the 50d moving average, but it was short and failed sending the index below the key support line. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also suffered from investors reducing risk, declining -2.59% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) was the least impacted with a -0.10% decline. The VIX volatility index advanced +17.80% for the day. Utilities (XLU +1.01%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.76%) were top sectors for the day as investors took defensive positions. Communications (XLC -1.92%) and Technology (XLK -2.52%) were the big losers. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced slightly, gaining +0.05% after last week's dip. The US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury yields all rose for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) declined while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) was flay while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.693. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains at neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the biggest mega-caps declined for the day. Amazon (AMZN) had the biggest loss with a -3.07% decline and closed below its 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) declined -2.58%, closing right at the 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -2.56%, closing right at the 21d EMA. Microsoft (MSFT) lost -2.09%, closing below the 21d EMA but above the 50d MA. Not all mega-caps declined for the day. Proctor & Gamble (PG), AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) held the top spots with over 1% gains. At the bottom of the list were Tesla (TSLA), ASML Holding (ASML), Facebook (FB) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). There were four stocks in the daily update growth list that gained for the day. Dr Horton (DHI) has been consistently done well on high demand in housing. The other three, Peloton (PTON), Etsy (ETSY), and Fastly (FSLY) were all in a very oversold state after sell-offs last week. At the bottom of the growth stock list were Lemonade (LMND), UP Fintech (TIGR), FUTU Holdings (FUTU) and Digital Turbine (APPS). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Tuesday, we will get the Monthly OPEC Report and the EIA Shot-Term Energy Outlook. The JOLTS Job Openings report for March will be released just after market open. FOMC Members are scheduled to speak throughout the day. There's also a 3y note-auction which is not quite as important as the 10y, but may be viewed as a preview for the longer term auction performance. Earnings releases will include Electronic Arts (EA), Palantir (PLTR), Unity Software (U), Quantumscape (QS), Plug Power (PLUG), Upstart (UPST), Lemonade (LMND), Open Lending (LPRO), and SelectQuote (SLQT). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The Nasdaq fell below the 50d moving average line today after failing to keep above the 21d EMA on Friday. I've removed the trend line from the 3/5 low and added a trend line from the 4/29 high. The five-day trend line points to a +1.48% recovery gain tomorrow. Following the trend-line from the 4/29 high would result in a sideways move tomorrow. That could be likely as investors wait for further input from economic data on Wednesday. The one-day trend line points to a -1.02% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The uncertainty around inflation continues to be a drag on big tech and growth stocks. Not only does it drag down the future value of earnings potential (which will impact growth stocks more than value stocks), but it also tests investors trust of the fed not to raise interest rates. It's a certainty that if the Fed mentions anything around monetary policy changes at this point, that investors will react severely. So what can you do? First of all, you could just go to cash and wait for better news. That news might come on Wednesday and/or Thursday if consumer and producer index data is lower than expected. The market seems to be pricing in the worst, so there's a good chance for a correction to the upside if the data shows less inflation. But you can also just stay focused on the stocks in your portfolio. Which ones are performing better than others and seem to be less impacted by inflation news? As inflation numbers go up, it's likely those stocks will continue have better relative strength. Keep stop losses in place to protect against any sudden rotations back to higher risk segments. If you get shaken out of a position, consider holding cash instead of entering new positions until the trend changes. Above all, always follow your system and your rules for investing your money. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week in Review - 5/3/2021 - 5/7/2021 Summary: The market is the great fortune teller, always trying to price in the future, not the present. We saw that in action this week in several ways. The first was with Janet Yellen's comments on Tuesday that interest rate hikes might be needed in the future. That sent investors into a frenzy sell-off before she walked back the comments. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 3, 2021 Facts: -0.48%, Volume lower, Closing range: 8%, Body: 85% Good: Held above the 21d EMA Bad: Lower high, lower low, could not stay above 14,000 Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body with small upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: Slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.27%), DJI (+0.70%), RUT (+0.49%%), VIX (-1.61%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.75%) and Materials (XLB +1.49%) were top sectors. Communications (XLC -0.53%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.54%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The cyclical sectors soared. The others did not. A rotation into reopening and cyclical stocks played well for all the major indexes except the Nasdaq which is heavy in big-tech and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed down -0.48% on lower volume. A brief rally attempt in the morning brought the index above 14,000 before selling off and testing the 21d EMA several times before closing just above the intraday lows. The thick red body covers 85% of the candle is surrounded by a short upper and lower wick with a closing range of 8%. There were slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 4, 2021 Facts: -1.88%, Volume higher, Closing range: 37% (w/gap), Body: 45% Good: Bounced off 50d moving average line Bad: Gap down on news, high volume distribution Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body in upper half of candle, long lower wick Advance/Decline: Almost four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.67%), DJI (+0.06%), RUT (-1.28%), VIX (+6.39%) Sectors: Materials (+1.09%) and Financials (XLF +0.80%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.04%) and Technology (XLK -1.79%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The market sold off sharply at open after comments from Janet Yellen suggested that interest rates might need to increase to keep the economy from overheating. Investors fled sectors more sensitive to interest rate hikes and rotated into the cyclical sectors. The Nasdaq opened with a gap-down and closed the day with a -1.88% decline on much higher volume. The index continued to decline after open until it hit the 50d moving average and found support through the afternoon. The result is a long lower wick underneath a 45% red body and a 37% closing range, considering the gap as part of the range. There were nearly four declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, May 5, 2021 Facts: -0.39%, Volume lower, Closing range: 13%, Body: 76% Good: Lower than average volume Bad: Lower high, thick red body from afternoon decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, thick red body with similar small upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.37%), DJI (+0.29%), RUT (-0.31%), VIX (-1.69%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.23%) and Materials (XLB +1.27%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -1.47%) and Utilities (XLU -1.69%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower This is not the rally we are looking for. The Dow Jones Industrial average closed at a record high today while the rest of the market struggled to hold any gains, with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 falling further behind the other major indexes. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.39% loss for the day on lower than average volume. The 13% closing range is under a 76% body with a short lower wick created from a late afternoon dip. The short upper wick was formed just after open before the bears took over. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 6, 2021 Facts: +0.37%, Volume higher, Closing range: 99%, Body: 38% Good: High closing range with gain on higher volume Bad: Lower low with dip below 50d moving average Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Hammer with long lower wick and smaller body in upper half of candle Advance/Decline: Almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.82%), DJI (+0.93%), RUT (+0.00%), VIX (-3.97%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.49%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.29%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.22%) and Health (XLV -0.13%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Another record was set for the Dow Jones Industrial average while value stocks continue to outpace growth stocks. Two intraday rallies might just be the action the Nasdaq needed to join the rally, but the gains were mostly isolated to the mega-caps. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.37% gain on higher volume. The mid-day rallies formed a long lower wick with a smaller 38% green body in the upper half of the candle, forming a hammer. A hammer can signal a trend reversal but needs to be confirmed the following day. The closing range of 99% comes after a rally late in the afternoon. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 7, 2021 Facts: +0.88%, Volume lower, Closing range: 60% (w/gap), Body: 21% Good: Higher close, higher high, higher low, confirmation of yesterday's hammer Bad: Lower volume, gap-up may need revisiting Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Longer upper wick over a thin green body in lower half of candle, gap-up at open Advance/Decline: About three gaining stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.74%), DJI (+0.66%), RUT (+1.35%), VIX (-9.24%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.78%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.22%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.30%) and Consumer Staples (+0.00%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher More records were set as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average both had record closes while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 joined the rally, also making gains. Employment data in the morning caused the dollar to fall which can give a boost to mega-caps and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.88% gain. Volume was lower and the morning rally faded through the day, giving the candle a 60% closing range (including the gap) and a thin 21% body under a long upper wick. Nonetheless, the positive gain with a higher high and higher low is a confirmation of the previous day's reversal hammer candle. There were three gaining stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The market is the great fortune teller, always trying to price in the future, not the present. We saw that in action this week in several ways. The first was with Janet Yellen's comments on Tuesday that interest rate hikes might be needed in the future. That sent investors into a frenzy sell-off before she walked back the comments. The second indication of future focus was that investors were much more focused on the guidance in earning reports than they were on the current results. Earning reports that beat expectations, but lowered or kept guidance the same were punished. Earnings reports that didn't meet expectations, but could provide higher guidance were rewarded. But possibly the biggest indication is the rotation from the growth stocks of the past year, to the value re-opening and infrastructure stocks of this year. While the Dow Jones industrial average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) were setting new records, the Nasdaq (IXIC) was still dropping, dipping below its 50d MA before finding any support. It was nearly the same for small-caps and the Russell 2000 (RUT). Thursday was the pivot day for both the Nasdaq and RUT, with long lower wicks and high closing ranges. The rally continued into Friday and provides some optimism for possible continuation into next week. But there is still a lot of rebuilding to do across both indexes. Many leading stocks will face overhead supply resistance as they move back toward new highs. While the two lagging indexes attempt to rally back to new highs, expect investors to stay hyper-focused on inflation and any responses from the Fed. Changes in monetary policy will be met with a swift reaction. The Nasdaq declined -1.51% for the week, ending the week in the middle of the range with a 52% closing range. Volume was lower than the previous week, with much of the volume focused on Tuesday's sell-off and Thursday's mid-day bounce. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) didn't have a single declining day during the week and advanced +2.67% over the five days. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +1.23% for the week. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.23% after taking a round trip below its 21d EMA and 50d MA but closing just above where it opened for the week. The VIX volatility index declined -10.32% for the week. It was the cyclical sectors that ruled the week. Energy ( XLE ), Materials ( XLB ), Financials ( XLF ) and Industrials ( XLI ) were the top four sectors of the week. The cyclical sectors are benefiting from a pick-up in economic activity driving demand for products from building materials, infrastructure and the manufacturing of consumables. Supply has not been able to keep up with the increased demand, driving commodity prices higher. Timber, Copper , Aluminum are all skyrocketing. And demand for oil is increasing as transportation picks back up. While the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) hit new all-time records, there were four sectors that lost for the week. Technology ( XLK ) and Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) fell on Monday thru Wednesday along with the Nasdaq, as investors rotated to re-opening and infrastructure stocks. Real Estate ( XLRE ) and Utilities ( XLU ) were the bottom two sectors. Investors did not have interest in the defensive equity plays this week. Investors remain confident in the equities market, but are playing toward value, re-opening and infrastructure. The US Treasury 30y, 10y and 2y yields all declined for the week, continuing to flatten the yield curve since its sharpest point in March. Both the High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined slightly while Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced. The US Dollar (DXY) declined -1.17% for the week, resting just above a support area from 2018. Commodities, especially the resources required for recovery, continue to reach new historic high prices. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced +5.94% and +3.53% for the week. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced +0.85%. Timber (WOOD) advanced +5.43%. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced +4.40% and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced +5.90%, putting in the fifth week in a row of gains. This growth/value comparison we've been tracking is showing the big rotation back into value over the past week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps The big four mega-caps were looking a little ugly on the daily charts this past two weeks. But it's always important to take a broader look at the weekly, and although not great, it doesn't look so bad either. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) all touched their 10e moving average lines, found support and closed above them. Microsoft was even able to get a slight gain for the week, advancing +0.11%. Apple (AAPL) was down -0.95%. Amazon (AMZN) had the biggest loss of -5.07%, but still stayed above the key moving average line. Alphabet (GOGL) had a dip but recovered, closing just -0.07% from where it opened the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Exxon Mobile (XOM) had a huge gain this week, advancing +9.07%. However, my other recovery stocks are all down. Delta Airlines (DAL) lost -1.74%. Marriott (MAR) declined -1.23%. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) lost -4.29%. So the focus on re-opening stocks may be more about the infrastructure plays and manufacturing goods required to meet increasing consumer demands. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) closed the week at 0.650, a little lower from the previous week, but was up and down throughout the week. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the greed side but not far off neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 87.79, after topping 100 last week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead There are still a high number of earnings reports, so keep an eye on your portfolio so you are not surprised. Monday There is not much significant economic news scheduled for Monday. JD.com (JD), Marriott (MAR), Roblox (RBLX), Trade Desk (TTD), Trex (TREX), Magnite (MGNI) and VUZIX (VUZI) are a few of the interesting earnings reports for Monday. Tuesday On Tuesday, we will get the Monthly OPEC Report and the EIA Shot-Term Energy Outlook. The JOLTS Job Openings report for March will be released just after market open. FOMC Members are scheduled to speak throughout the day. There's also a 3y note-auction which is not quite as important as the 10y, but may be viewed as a preview for the longer term auction performance. Earnings releases will include Electronic Arts (EA), Palantir (PLTR), Unity Software (U), Quantumscape (QS), Plug Power (PLUG), Upstart (UPST), Lemonade (LMND), Open Lending (LPRO), Selectquote (SLQT), Wednesday Consumer Price Index data for April will be released on Wednesday. An indicator of inflation, the numbers will be watched closely. Crude Oil Inventories will be updated in the morning after market open. The 10y treasure note auction will be in the afternoon. Toyota Motor (TM) along with a large number of Japanese company earnings reports will be released on Wednesday. Some other interesting reports will include Dynatrace (DT) and Bumble (BMBL). Thursday The weekly update on Jobless Claims comes on Thursday. Also Produce Price Index data will be released in the morning. Earnings Reports include Alibaba (BABA), Walt Disney (DIS), AirBnB (ABNB), Coinbase (COIN), DoorDash (DASH), Farfetch (FTCH), Celsius (CELH), and DermTech (DMTK). Friday Friday brings an update to Core Retail Sales for April. Export/Import Price Index data will also be released. Closer to open, the Industrial Production and Business Inventories data will be released. Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment numbers for May will come after the market open. Another large round of Japanese earnings reports come on Friday. UP fintech (TIGR) is also schedule to report on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Although there is caution in the market at all-time highs for two of the major indexes, there is a switch from previous weeks where Utilities and Real Estate were leading sectors, back to less cautious sectors. And although investors are still playing the value trade against the growth trade, we saw a growth and tech to start to play in the rally on Thursday as well. It's also very possible based on data available from banks, that hedge funds have been short selling the growth play which has forced prices even lower. The data says the increasing amount of shorts are coming via ETFs, which in light of the GameStop frenzy, seems to be the safer way to play the short side for now. But if the Nasdaq and the passive indexes start to rally, the hedgefunds will need to cover shorts nonetheless, possibly unlocking a short squeeze at a broader level. As the long as the fed keeps monetary policy, the market will continue to be propped up and any short-sell plays will eventually hit their limit and the buying has to begin again. Let's see. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side We've just had several weeks of first quarter earnings reports that beat the previous year, but shared lower guidance for the coming quarters. Many of those companies were driving the market to historical gains over the past year. Now that Q2 has arrived, the year-over-year comparable earnings will get much tougher. That's going to mean more downside for companies that are driving the high prices in the market. Still, as the economic recovery picks up more steam, investors worry over inflation and interest rates will increase as well. Any small statement like we saw from Yellen this past week could send investors for the exits. And if we actually see a response from the Fed that would touch monetary policy, it will certainly mean a taper tantrum if not done carefully. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq found itself below the 21d EMA again this week, but found support at the bottom of the channel from the March 2020 lows. That channel remains intact and the index closed above the 50d MA despite the dip. On the positive side, the levels are: The 21d EMA is at 13,797.33 and is a key level for the index to rise above. The 10d MA is at 13,882.14. 14,000 has been a key area of support/resistance. The index has only stayed above this level for a few days at a time since the beginning of 2021. This past weeks high is 14,042.12. The all-time high is at 14,211.57 is the all-time high and the high of this week. 14,923 is the middle line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom. The index has been in the channel, but below the midline for the past ten weeks. On the downside, there are a few key levels: A previous support area is around 13,600. The lower line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom is around 13,563 for next week. The 50d MA is is at 13,529.61 and is an important line to stay above. The low of this past week is 13,439.39. Let's get a higher low for next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up If you are a growth investor, it was probably a pretty tough week for your portfolio. Investors were focused on the value play and there was a ton of selling pressure for growth early in the week. But as the Dow Jones Industrial average and S&P 500 close the week at all-time highs, it could be just the right time to take profits and rotate them back into growth stocks. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/7Summary: More records were set as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average both had record closes while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 joined the rally, also making gains. Employment data in the morning caused the dollar to fall which can give a boost to mega-caps and growth stocks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 7, 2021 Facts: +0.88%, Volume lower, Closing range: 60% (w/gap), Body: 21% Good: Higher close, higher high, higher low, confirmation of yesterday's hammer Bad: Lower volume, gap-up may need revisiting Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Longer upper wick over a thin green body in lower half of candle, gap-up at open Advance/Decline: About three gaining stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.74%), DJI (+0.66%), RUT (+1.35%), VIX (-9.24%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.78%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.22%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.30%) and Consumer Staples (+0.00%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview More records were set as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average both had record closes while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 joined the rally, also making gains. Employment data in the morning caused the dollar to fall which can give a boost to mega-caps and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.88% gain. Volume was lower and the morning rally faded through the day, giving the candle a 60% closing range (including the gap) and a thin 21% body under a long upper wick. Nonetheless, the positive gain with a higher high and higher low is a confirmation of the previous day's reversal hammer candle. There were three gaining stocks for every declining stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.75%, while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) advanced +0.66%, both having record closes. The Russell 200 (RUT) gained +1.35% and closed with a 99% closing range. The VIX volatility index declined -9.24%. Energy (XLE +1.78%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.22%) were top. Utilities (XLU +0.30%) and Consumer Staples (+0.00%) were bottom. No sectors declined for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.73% after non-farm employment data was lower than expected. The US 30y, 10y advanced while the 2y yield declined, widening the spread between long and short term treasury notes. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. A continuing trend in the commodities resulting from the economic recovery. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.650. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved a bit more toward the greed side. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 87.79, after topping 100 last week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the biggest mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) declined with a -0.45% loss, closing underneath its 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) advanced +0.36% but could not quite close above the 21d EMA. Microsoft (MSFT) gapped-up at open and closed with a +1.09% gain, moving above its 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOGL) has been trading above the 21d EMA and continued its rally with a +0.62% gain today. Nike (NKE), ASML Holding (ASML), Nvidia (NVDA) and Comcast (CMCSA) topped the mega-caps list. At the bottom of the list were Verizon Communications (VZ), AT&T (T), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Walmart (WMT). Roku (ROKU) please investors with earnings, sending it to the top of the growth stock list with a 11.55% gain for the day. DataDog (DDOG), Digital Turbine (APPS) and Grow Generation (GRWG) were also near the top of the list with greater than 5% gains. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much significant economic news scheduled for Monday. JD.com (JD), Marriott (MAR), Roblox (RBLX), Trade Desk (TTD), Trex (TREX), Magnite (MGNI) are a few of the interesting earnings reports for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The Nasdaq rallied above the 21d EMA briefly before fading and closing below the line, but above the 13,600-13,700 support area. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +3.51% advance. The one-day trend line points to a -0.03% loss. The five-day trend line points to a -2.19% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Nonfarm employment data that was lower than expected today, sent the US Dollar tumbling. That was a good thing for large mega-caps and growth companies that benefit from a weaker dollar. But it alsos cause indexes to rise, including passive indexed instruments such as ETFs. There is data that shows a large number of short selling of ETFs from hedgefunds in the past month. No doubt, you probably have some stocks that seemed to never get support and they were likely impacted by the short selling. But when the big indexes start to move, those shorts need to be covered and it can cause the broader rally we saw today. I've marked an expectation for sideways on Monday, but let's hope for a continued squeeze that could take the major indexes another leg higher. Have a good weekend! Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/6Summary: Another record was set for the Dow Jones Industrial average while value stocks continue to outpace growth stocks. Two intraday rallies might just be the action the Nasdaq needed to join the rally, but the gains were mostly isolated to the mega-caps. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 6, 2021 Facts: +0.37%, Volume higher, Closing range: 99%, Body: 38% Good: High closing range with gain on higher volume Bad: Lower low with dip below 50d moving average Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Hammer with long lower wick and smaller body in upper half of candle Advance/Decline: Almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.82%), DJI (+0.93%), RUT (+0.00%), VIX (-3.97%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.49%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.29%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.22%) and Health (XLV -0.13%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Another record was set for the Dow Jones Industrial average while value stocks continue to outpace growth stocks. Two intraday rallies might just be the action the Nasdaq needed to join the rally, but the gains were mostly isolated to the mega-caps. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.37% gain on higher volume. The mid-day rallies formed a long lower wick with a smaller 38% green body in the upper half of the candle, forming a hammer. A hammer can signal a trend reversal but needs to be confirmed the following day. The closing range of 99% comes after a rally late in the afternoon. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) had another record close, gaining +0.93% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed +0.82%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) closed just about where it opened for no gain or loss. The VIX volatility index declined -3.97%. Financials (XLF +1.49%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.29%) topped the sector list. All sectors ended the day with gains. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.22%) and Health (XLV -0.13%) were the worst performers. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) stayed about the same with a -0.40% decline. The US 30y, 10y declined while the 2y yields rose. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined. Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) declined and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.722. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains near neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four biggest mega-caps reversed intraday losses to end the day with gains. Apple (AAPL) advanced +1.28%. Microsoft (MSFT) had a +1.32% gain. Amazon (AMZN) gained +1.10%. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.98%. Apple and Microsoft reversals came after tests of their 50 moving average. Alphabet (GOOGL) came close to the 21d EMA before moving higher. Cisco (CSCO), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK), JP Morgan (JPM) and PayPal (PYPL) were the top mega-caps for today. The majority of mega-caps ended the day with gains. Pfizer (PFE) and Tesla (TSLA) were at the bottom of the list with more than 1% declines. There were a few winners in the daily update growth stock list. Zynga (ZNGA) gained +5.62% after giving surprise guidance in their earnings call. Ehang Holdings (EH), PayPal (PYPL) and Facebook (FB) were other growth stocks at the top of the list. Fastly (FSLY) declined -27.13%, disappointing investors with their earnings release. Etsy (ETSY) also dropped after an earnings disappointment, declining -14.57%. CloudFlare (NET) declined -12.59%, but gained 8% after hours with an earnings report that exceeded expectations. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead More labor statistics will be released on Friday with the Average Hourly Earnings data, Nonfarm Payrolls, Labor Participation data and the Unemployment rate all released before market open. Adidas (ADDYY), BMW (BMWYY), DraftKings (DKNG), Cinemark (CNK) are a few of the companies to report on Friday and end a big earnings week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index dipped below the 50d moving average, but closed above the line. It also touched the lower boundary of a channel drawn from March 2020. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +4.22% advance which does not seem possible unless investor sentiment changed dramatically. The one-day trend line points to a -0.63% loss. The five-day trend line points to a -0.76% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Initial jobless claims data was much lower than expected, helping drive the rally in the Dow Jones today. But the Nasdaq dipped below the 50d moving average twice before finally rallying into close. Investors continued to react to the guidance in earnings reports much more closely than meeting current quarter expectations. Based on the hammer candlestick today, I'll look for sideways or higher tomorrow as an expectation. If so, that would be a nice confirmation of the reversal represented by today's candle. If not, then I'll continue to feel the pain while value stocks feel the gain. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/5Summary: This is not the rally we are looking for. The Dow Jones Industrial average closed at a record high today while the rest of the market struggled to hold any gains, with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 falling further behind the other major indexes. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, May 5, 2021 Facts: -0.39%, Volume lower, Closing range: 13%, Body: 76% Good: Lower than average volume Bad: Lower high, thick red body from afternoon decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, thick red body with similar small upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.37%), DJI (+0.29%), RUT (-0.31%), VIX (-1.69%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.23%) and Materials (XLB +1.27%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -1.47%) and Utilities (XLU -1.69%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview This is not the rally we are looking for. The Dow Jones Industrial average closed at a record high today while the rest of the market struggled to hold any gains, with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 falling further behind the other major indexes. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.39% loss for the day on lower than average volume. The 13% closing range is under a 76% body with a short lower wick created from a late afternoon dip. The short upper wick was formed just after open before the bears took over. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) gained +0.29% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) was nearly flat at a +0.07% advance. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.31%. The VIX volatility index declined -1.69%. Cyclicals are still the focus for the market, the only gaining sectors for the day. Energy (XLE +3.23%) and Materials (XLB +1.27%) were top. Crude Oil Inventories were much lower than expected, signaling higher demand. Real Estate (XLRE -1.47%) and Utilities (XLU -1.69%) were at the bottom. It doesn't seem investors are fleeing to safe bets like utilities, but they are going aggressively after cyclical stocks and not broadly making bets across all sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) stayed about the same with a -0.02% decline. The US 30y, 10y and 2y yields all declined with the yield curve flattening some more. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) declined and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.655. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains near neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained for the day with +0.20% and +0.35% advances. Microsoft declined -0.53%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -1.25%. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) led the mega-caps with ~3% gains. ASML Holding (ASML) and AbbVie (ABBV) round out the top four. Mastercard (MA), Walt Disney (DIS), Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN) were the bottom four mega-caps. Growth stocks continue to struggle in the current market. Penn National Gaming (PENN), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Nvidia (NVDA) and Solar Edge (SEDG) were at the top of a short list of growth stock gains for the day. Peloton (PTON) fell more than 14% on news of a recall on their Treadmills. Moderna (MRNA) fell -6.19% as the US decided to support lifting patent protections for COVID vaccines. Ehang Holdings (EH) and Roku (ROKU) were also at the bottom of the growth stock list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The weekly Initial Jobless Claims numbers will be released on Thursday morning as well as Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs. Thursday will be another busy day of earnings reports. Linde (LIN), Anheuser Busch (BUD), Volkswagen (BWAPY), Square (SQ), Fidelity (FIS), Moderna (MRNA), Roku (ROKU), Expedia (EXPE), Beyond Meat (BYND), AMC Entertainment (AMC) are some of the interesting reports. The earnings list is long, so check your portfolio for earnings events so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index moved back below the 13,600 - 13,700 area, but remains above the 50d moving average. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +4.22% advance which does not seem possible unless investor sentiment changed dramatically. The one-day trend line points to a -0.63% loss. The five-day trend line points to a -0.76% decline. If we break below the 50d MA, we'll start a new trend line from the 4/29 all-time high. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The story of earnings reactions continues this week. If you want to know what investors care about, it's pretty obvious they are looking beyond results and want to see guidance for the remainder of the year. That's the challenge for companies like Twilio and Etsy who beat earnings estimates this quarter but are offering lower guidance for the remainder of the year compared to the massive performance they had during the height of the pandemic. Both were down in afterhours trading. On the other hand, Zynga (ZNGA) missed estimates but offered upbeat guidance and rose more than 5% in after hours. The mortal sin however was to miss estimates and also not provide a positive outlook. Fastly (FSLY) did just that and dropped -17.5% after hours. Ouch! Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Daily Market Update for 5/4Summary: The market sold off sharply at open after comments from Janet Yellen suggested that interest rates might need to increase to keep the economy from overheating. Investors fled sectors more sensitive to interest rate hikes and rotated into the cyclical sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 4, 2021 Facts: -1.88%, Volume higher, Closing range: 37% (w/gap), Body: 45% Good: Bounced off 50d moving average line Bad: Gap down on news, high volume distribution Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body in upper half of candle, long lower wick Advance/Decline: Almost four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.67%), DJI (+0.06%), RUT (-1.28%), VIX (+6.39%) Sectors: Materials (+1.09%) and Financials (XLF +0.80%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.04%) and Technology (XLK -1.79%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market sold off sharply at open after comments from Janet Yellen suggested that interest rates might need to increase to keep the economy from overheating. Investors fled sectors more sensitive to interest rate hikes and rotated into the cyclical sectors. The Nasdaq opened with a gap-down and closed the day with a -1.88% decline on much higher volume. The index continued to decline after open until it hit the 50d moving average and found support through the afternoon. The result is a long lower wick underneath a 45% red body and a 37% closing range, considering the gap as part of the range. There were nearly four declining stocks for every advancing stock. Only the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) was able to recover from the morning sell-off and gain +0.06% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) dipped just below its 21d EMA before climbing back to end the day with a -0.67% decline. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -1.28%. The VIX volatility index advanced +6.39% but was up 20% intraday. The cyclical sectors benefited from the volatile day, with Materials (+1.09%) and Financials (XLF +0.80%) at the top of the list. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.04%) and Technology (XLK -1.79%) were bottom, sectors that are exposed to higher interest rates. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.35%. The US 30y treasury bond yield and 10y note yield both declined. The 2y note yield rose. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while the Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.741. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains near neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The big four mega-caps all had big declines. Apple (AAPL) declined -3.54%, finding support at its 50d moving average. Microsoft lost -1.62%. Amazon (AMZN) dropped below its 21d EMA with a -2.20% decline. Alphabet (GOOGL) is the only of the four to remain above the key moving average lines with a -1.55% loss today. AT&T (T), Oracle (ORCL), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) were the top mega-caps for the day. ASML Holdings (ASML), Apple (AAPL), PayPal (PYPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) were at the bottom of the list. Only a few of the growth stocks in the daily update list had gains. Peloton (PTON) and DR Horton (DHI) advanced under 1%. At the bottom of the list was Solar Edge (SEDG) with a 15.95% decline, disappointing investors with its earnings report. Moderna (MRNA), Enphase (ENPH) and SNAP (SNAP) also found themselves at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead ADP Nonfarm Employment data will be released on Wednesday morning. In addition, the purchasing manager indexes for Services and Non-Manufacturing sectors will be released after the market opens. Crude Oil Inventories will be updated in the morning as well. PayPal (PYPL), Uber (UBER), Boking (BKNG), General Motors (GM), MercadoLibre (MELI), Twilio (TWLO), Rocket (RKT), Hilton (HLT), Etsy (ETSY), HubSpot (HUBS), 10x Genomics (TXG), Qorvo (QRVO), Zynga (ZNGA), Fastly (FSLY), Redfin (RDFN), Palomar (PLMR) is an abbreviated list of a massive number of earnings reports for Wednesday. The earnings list is long, so check your portfolio for earnings events so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index found support at its 50d moving average line today and moved back into the 13,600 - 13,700 area. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +3.84% advance which would require a substantial confidence booster for investors to get that in one day. Nonetheless, it is the mid-point of that longer regression trend channel. The five-day trend line points to a -0.69% decline. The one-day trend line points to a -0.94% loss. If we break below the 50d MA, we'll start a new trend line from the 4/29 all-time high. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We've known how sensitive investors are to inflation and interest rate news. It showed up in last week's cold reception to any positive news, whether positive earnings or good economic numbers. And so it just took a few words from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to send investors into a frenzy this morning. Later in the day, she is walking back the comments but the damage to investor confidence is done. The good news is that in today's after hours market, reactions to positive earnings reports seems to be good. Lyft (LYFT) was trading up 6.10% after an earnings surprise. Zillow (Z) was up almost 5% with its earnings beat. Skillz (SKLZ) was down slightly after volatile aftermarket session as investors reacted to its earnings beat and improved guidance. Expecting sideways or lower for tomorrow with a hope for a positive expectation breaker. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/3Summary: The cyclical sectors soared. The others did not. A rotation into reopening and cyclical stocks played well for all the major indexes except the Nasdaq which is heavy in big-tech and growth stocks. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 3, 2021 Facts: -0.48%, Volume lower, Closing range: 8%, Body: 85% Good: Held above the 21d EMA Bad: Lower high, lower low, could not stay above 14,000 Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body with small upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: Slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.27%), DJI (+0.70%), RUT (+0.49%%), VIX (-1.61%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.75%) and Materials (XLB +1.49%) were top sectors. Communications (XLC -0.53%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.54%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The cyclical sectors soared. The others did not. A rotation into reopening and cyclical stocks played well for all the major indexes except the Nasdaq which is heavy in big-tech and growth stocks. The Nasdaq closed down -0.48% on lower volume. A brief rally attempt in the morning brought the index above 14,000 before selling off and testing the 21d EMA several times before closing just above the intraday lows. The thick red body covers 85% of the candle is surrounded by a short upper and lower wick with a closing range of 8%. There were slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) was the best performing index of the day, gaining +0.70%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.27% and had another record close. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +0.49%. The VIX volatility index declined -1.61%. Energy (XLE +2.75%) and Materials (XLB +1.49%) were the top sectors. All cyclical sectors gained for the day. Communications (XLC -0.53%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.54%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.37%. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y and 2y note yields all declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while the Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) remained flat. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.577. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) was the only gainer of the biggest four mega-caps with a +0.82% advance. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.13% after attempting to rise above the 21d EMA but failing. Amazon (AMZN) was down -2.33%, closing just above the 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.44%. Pfizer (PFE), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Home Depot (HD) and Oracle (ORCL) were the top mega-caps for the day. PayPal (PYPL), Amazon (AMZN), Salesforce.com (CRM) and Tesla (TSLA) were at the bottom of the list. It was another disappointing day for growth stocks, but there were some winners. Moderna (MRNA), DR Horton (DHI), RH (RH), and Penn National Gaming (PENN) topped the list. UP Fintech (TIGR), DataDog (DDOG), Digital Turbine (APPS), and Okta (OKTA) were at the bottom of the list, all with over 5% of declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tuesday will bring Exports, Imports and Trade Balance data before market open. Factory Orders data will be released after market open and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock levels will be released after market close. Tuesdays earnings reports will include Pfizer (PFE), T-Mobile (TMUS), CVS (CVS), Zillow (Z), Verisk (VRSK), Lyft (LYFT), Skillz (SKLZ). The earnings list is long, so check your portfolio for earnings events so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is below the 14,000 support/resistance area. Without a boost, we can expect there to be resistance before passing back above the line again. The trend line from the 3/5 low, points to a +2.16% advance, that would be back above 14,000 and just below the all-time high. The five-day trend line points to a sideways move with a small -0.05% decline. The one-day trend line points to a -0.75% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Investors are back into reopening trades, sending cyclicals back to the top of the sector list today. The rotation was tough for big tech and growth stocks. But manufacturing data in the morning brought yields and the US Dollar down which could be good for the growth plays in the coming days. There are lots of earnings reports this week. Watch for positive reports and how the market reacts to them. Will last week's cold reception of positive reports continue? Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week in Review - 4/26/2021 - 4/30/2021 Summary: The week began with continued momentum from the end of the previous week as investors speculated ahead of earnings reports from the biggest most influential companies in the market. Those companies gained on Monday as investors became more bullish, sending the put/call ratio to an overly bullish level. The result was that much of the positive earnings reports were already priced into the market, setting expectations even higher. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 26, 2021 Facts: +0.87%, Volume higher, Closing range: 89%, Body: 64% Good: Move up on higher volume and broadly shared gains Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Longer lower wick from dip at open, short upper wick after testing new high Advance/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.18%), DJI (-0.18%), RUT (+1.15%), VIX (+1.79%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +0.67%) and Materials (XLB +0.59%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.57%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -1.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher Momentum from the end of last week continued into Monday as markets open the week higher and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new records. There are some signs that investors are rotating out of safe bets and buying up speculative positions ahead of earnings reports. The Nasdaq had a record-setting close, ending the with a +0.87% gain and fell just shy of setting a new all-time high price. Volume was higher and advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks, great bullish signals for the rally. The closing range of 89% comes after a small dip before close. A longer lower wick was created by a dip just after open before the bulls quickly took over. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 27, 2021 Facts: -0.34%, Volume higher, Closing range: 24%, Body: 75% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Gap up at open, but couldn't hold on, distribution day on higher volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: No upper wick, thick red body with a short lower wick Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for each advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.02%), DJI (+0.01%), RUT (+0.14%), VIX (-0.45%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.21%) and Industrials (XLI +0.83%) were top. Health (XLV -0.58%) and Utilities (XLU -0.77%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways The Nasdaq opened with a gap up but couldn't hold on, selling off briskly in the morning along with the other major indexes. Eventually positive consumer confidence numbers and continued growing demand outlook from OPEC helped the markets to settle down and end the day with a relatively small pull back overall. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.34% decline on higher volume. The distribution day resulted in a 75% red body that ended with a 25% closing range. A small lower wick was formed in the morning before the index found support above 14,000. The higher high and higher low continue an uptrend since last Wednesday. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 28, 2021 Facts: -0.28%, Volume lower, Closing range: 17%, Body: 32% Good: Lower volume, sideways movement, with support above 14,000 Bad: Lower high and lower low with a low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Long upper wick above a small red body and low closing range Advance/Decline: Just slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.08%), DJI (-0.48%), RUT (+0.13%), VIX (-1.59%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.45%) and Communications (XLC +0.92%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.35%) and Technology (XLK -0.93%) Expectation: Sideways or Higher The market attempted to rally a few times today but came back to rest at intraday lows. The good news is those lows seemed to be support areas that the bears could not bust below. The two intraday rallies came in the morning and afternoon, the first possibly on earnings reactions and the second on no surprises from the FOMC press conference. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.28% loss in a day after testing and getting support around 14,050 three times. The long upper wick was formed from the morning and afternoon rally. The small 32% red body rests in the bottom of the candle above a 17% closing range and a small lower wick. Volume was lower for the day and there were just slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 29, 2021 Facts: +0.22%, Volume higher, Closing range: 50%, Body: 47% Good: New all-time high, higher volume, recovery from morning selling in afternoon Bad: Couldn't hold the high, lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, long lower wick with a thick red body in upper half of candle Advance/Decline: Just slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.68%), DJI (+0.71%), RUT (-0.38%), VIX (+1.91%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +2.77%) and Financial (XLF +1.78%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.08%) and Health (XLV -0.40%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher We got higher, we got lower and we got sideways. It was a whiplash day for the markets that saw record highs be broken right before a painful morning sell-off. Then the afternoon rally brought most of the major indexes back into positive territory and left the S&P 500 at another all-time record close. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +0.22% gain, a close that is within the highs and lows of the week, marking a sideways move. Volume was higher as the morning high set a record for the index, before selling off to a morning low which is also a low for the week. Finally in the afternoon, the index climbed back to the positive, leaving us with a long lower wick underneath a 47% red body and 50% closing range. There were nearly two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 30, 2021 Facts: -0.85%, Volume lower, Closing range: 15%, Body: 6% Good: Not much Bad: Failed rally in the morning, newer low in the afternoon Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Long upper wick and thin red body show the failed morning rally Advance/Decline: Three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.72%), DJI (-0.54%), RUT (-1.26%), VIX (+5.68%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +0.79%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.66%) were top sectors. Technology (XLK -1.36%) and Energy (XLE -2.53%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower It was not a great end to the month of April, with a failed rally in the morning that turned into lower lows in the afternoon. Investors are watching economic data closely, especially focused on measures of inflation driving expectations for an overheated economy. The Nasdaq closed the last day of April with a -0.85% decline on lower volume. The 6% body under a long upper wick and 15% closing range are the result of a morning rally attempt that faded quickly and turned into lower lows at the end of the day. The index was able to close just above the intraday low. Three stocks declined for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The week began with continued momentum from the end of the previous week as investors speculated ahead of earnings reports from the biggest most influential companies in the market. Those companies gained on Monday as investors became more bullish, sending the put/call ratio to an overly bullish level. The result was that much of the positive earnings reports were already priced into the market, setting expectations even higher. The first warning sign that the speculation may have fragile support was the reaction to Tesla's earnings report. Despite beating earnings and revenue estimates, the challenges faced by the company was too much for investors to remain positive even though none of those challenges were news. Next came a positive report by Microsoft, met with selling in after hours. AMD's positive report turned from gains in aftermarket to losses the next day. Apple and Amazon both turned gains into losses after positive reports. The only sector that was able to stay bullish was communications, with positive reports from Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) being met by investors with big gains. The two companies stand to benefit immensely from the increase in consumer activity as advertisers will increase spending to capture share of pocket books. The result was a choppy week for the indexes. The Nasdaq gapped up on Tuesday, but ended the day with losses. Those losses turned into more losses on Wednesday. Then a huge outside day hit on Thursday, setting a new all-time high for the index, but then dipping to the weekly low before ending the day with a small gain. Friday ended the week with another swing, but closing right where it opened. Small caps and the Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed early in the week, but the rally ended after Wednesday and the index dropped on Thursday and Friday. With so many positive earnings reports, why the negative reaction in the market? Inflation. It's looming like Godzilla emerging from the ocean, meeting up with King Kong (the Fed) and fighting over future outlook. Inflation is a necessary part of the economy growing back to pre-pandemic levels. And the Fed says that the inflation will be transitionary and they expect it to drop back to around or below 2% by end of the year. But analysts aren't sure. They fear that Inflation will eventually cause the Fed to take action and rase interest rates. So in the meantime, inflation is going to often cause good economic news to be met with a negative nelly reaction from investors. That seems to have driven much of what we saw this week. The Nasdaq closed down -0.39% for the week on higher volume. The closing range was a dismal 8% with a small body sitting in the bottom half of the candle. The upper wick is formed from the attempted rallies on Tuesday and Thursday. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.02% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) lost -0.50%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.24%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.41% for the week thanks to a strong small cap performance late in the week. The S&P 500 lost -0.13% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.46%. The VIX volatility index rose +7.39% and is trending up the last two weeks. Energy ( XLE ) led the weekly sector list for the first time since the first week of March. The sector was helped by oil prices that rose on Tuesday and Wednesday, and positive earnings reports from Exxon Mobile and Chevron. Financials ( XLF ) and Communications ( XLC ) stocks solidified second and third place with strong opens on Thursday. Financials was boosted by positive earnings reports from Capital One and S&P Global . Communications got a big lift from Alphabet and Facebook , as advertising revenues soar amidst consumers getting back to spending. Despite several positive earnings reports in the sector, Technology ( XLK ) ended the week in last place. Investor outlook appears to be that these big tech companies will not continue the same amount of growth in the next few quarters, especially compared to the previous year's numbers. The US 30y treasury bond and US 10y treasury note yields both declined for the week. The US 2y note yield also declined. The yield curve is slightly steeper than the previous week, but spreads are still trending sideways for the past two months. Both the High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced while Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices declined. The US Dollar (DXY) had its first gain after several weeks of declines. It advanced +0.51% this week. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined -0.38% and -0.47% for the week. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced +1.53%. Timber (WOOD) declined for another week, losing -0.70% Copper (COPPER1!) advanced +2.58% and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced +1.71%. That's four weeks of advances for the two metals required for infrastructure and manufacturing activity. This growth/value comparison we've been tracking is starting to trend back in favor of value. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps The big four mega-caps had mixed weeks. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) ended the week with gains. Amazon advanced +3.79% for the week and Alphabet advanced +2.33%. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) could not hold onto gains early in the week, despite both releasing positive earnings and revenue reports. Apple (AAPL) retreated -2.13% while Microsoft lost -3.43%. All big four mega-caps continue to trade above 10w and 40w moving average lines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. All four had gains this week. Marriott (MAR) had the smallest gain with a +0.11% advanced. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) and Delta Airlines (DAL) gained +2.53% and +2.45%. Exxon Mobil (XOM) exited the week with a +3.01% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) closed the week at 0.790, showing a little more caution among investors. On Monday it was a 0.492, very bullish. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the greed side but not far off neutral. The NAAIM exposure index moved up to 103.72. That's the first time exposure moved above 100 since February. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday Monday will start the month of May with Manufacturing data, which should show growth in the sector given the other economic recovery data showing demand for goods. Earnings reports on Monday will include Alibaba (BABA), Estee Lauder (EL), Loews (LO), SolarEdge (SEDG), and Avis (CAR). Tuesday Tuesday will bring Exports, Imports and Trade Balance data before market open. Factory Orders data will be released after market open and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock levels will be released after market close. Tuesdays earnings reports will include Pfizer (PFE), T-Mobile (TMUS), CVS (CVS), Zillow (Z), Verisk (VRSK), LYFT (LYFT), Skillz (SKLZ). Wednesday ADP Nonfarm Employment data will be released on Wednesday morning. In addition, the purchasing manager indexes for Services and Non-Manufacturing sectors will be released after the market opens. Crude Oil Inventories will be updated in the morning as well. PayPal (PYPL), Uber (UBER), Boking (BKNG), General Motors (GM), MercadoLibre (MELI), Twilio (TWLO), Rocket (RKT), Hilton (HLT), Etsy (ETSY), HubSpot (HUBS), 10x Genomics (TXG), Qorvo (QRVO), Zynga (ZNGA), Fastly (FSLY), Redfin (RDFN), Palomar (PLMR) is an abbreviated list of a massive number of earnings reports for Wednesday. Thursday The weekly Initial Jobless Claims numbers will be released on Thursday morning as well as Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs. Thursday will be another busy day of earnings reports. Linde (LIN), Anheuser Busch (BUD), Volkswagen (BWAPY), Square (SQ), Fidelity (FIS), Moderna (MRNA), Roku (ROKU), Expedia (EXPE), Beyond Meat (BYND), AMC Entertainment (AMC) are some of the interesting reports. Friday More labor statistics will be released on Friday with the Average Hourly Earnings data, Nonfarm Payrolls, Labor Participation data and the Unemployment rate all released before market open. Adidas (ADDYY), BMW (BMWYY), DraftKings (DKNG), Cinemark (CNK) are a few of the companies to report on Friday and end a big earnings week. This another super busy week of earnings reports. Check your own portfolio for earnings dates so you aren't surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side It may not be quite the week we were looking for, but we got a higher high and a higher low, setting up the markets for an uptrend from here. Even days with a dip, the index still seems to be closing around 14,000 which can be a support level from which to move higher. The Fed has stood strong on the statement that they would not touch interest rates despite inflation going above 2%. Now that the price data this past week is behind us, investors can move their focus off inflation and focus on the underlying economic strength that will be shown in manufacturing data, purchasing index data and employment data. That should put more confidence behind the positive earnings reports this past week. The treasury yield curve remains about the same over the past two months, easing fears that longer term interest rates would outpace short term rates and make money more expensive for growth companies. The US Dollar bounced off of recent lows on Friday, but remains low compared to the past year. That should help large multinationals. Another week of good earnings reports might be enough to turn sentiment upward and get a more positive reaction from investors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side The failed rally attempts among great earnings reports could just be the beginning. Investors don't trust that market leaders can continue the amazing growth they've showed over the past year. They also see headwinds coming if inflation continues at a high rate, causing a reaction by the Fed. The looming inflation numbers mean that even with great economic news, investors might just see added fuel to the fire of an overheated economy that needs to be controlled with higher interest rates. Combine that with a breakout of the US Dollar from a descent since the beginning of April and the two could cause quite an impact to valuations for the big multinational companies. The advance/decline ratio was above 1.0 only six times in April. Meaning most days in April there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks on the Nasdaq. That might be different in the broader market, but it doesn't bode well for big tech and growth stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq closed just below 14,000 this past week, but seemed to return to the area after dips. We want to get above that line and stay there to support further gains and break into new all-time highs. On the positive side, the levels are: 14,000 will be the first line to pass, also taking the index above the 10d moving average. The all-time high is at 14,211.57 is the all-time high and the high of this week. 14,850 is the middle line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom. The index has been in the channel, but below the midline for the past nine weeks. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The low of this past week is 13,941.63. Let's get a higher low for next week. The 21d exponential moving average is at 13,860.07. A previous support area is around 13,600. The 50d moving average has been moving sideways and is at 13,511.49. The lower line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom is around 13,515 for next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Can it get any better? That's what investors want to know. The economy is super charged for recover and the Fed continues support. But the more overheated the economic growth becomes, the more nervous investors will get. That's why seemingly positive news is being met with dips in the market. So the next week, we'll watch for reactions to earnings reports and economic news. If the reports are positive and the reactions are good, then we can rest easy. Otherwise, we'll be watching for those key levels to see just how nervous investors have become. If we lose support in some of the key levels, then a defensive position will be warranted. Lots of earning reports next week. Keep your eye on your portfolio so you are not surprised. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/30Summary: It was not a great end to the month of April, with a failed rally in the morning that turned into lower lows in the afternoon. Investors are watching economic data closely, especially focused on measures of inflation driving expectations for an overheated economy. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 30, 2021 Facts: -0.85%, Volume lower, Closing range: 15%, Body: 6% Good: Not much Bad: Failed rally in the morning, newer low in the afternoon Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Long upper wick and thin red body show the failed morning rally Advance/Decline: Three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.72%), DJI (-0.54%), RUT (-1.26%), VIX (+5.68%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +0.79%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.66%) were top sectors. Technology (XLK -1.36%) and Energy (XLE -2.53%) were bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was not a great end to the month of April, with a failed rally in the morning that turned into lower lows in the afternoon. Investors are watching economic data closely, especially focused on measures of inflation driving expectations for an overheated economy. The Nasdaq closed the last day of April with a -0.85% decline on lower volume. The 6% body under a long upper wick and 15% closing range are the result of a morning rally attempt that faded quickly and turned into lower lows at the end of the day. The index was able to close just above the intraday low. Three stocks declined for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed down -0.85% after a record close the previous day. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) closed down -0.54%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the worst performing index of the day with a -1.26% decline. The VIX volatility index advanced +5.68%. Utilities (XLU +0.79%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.66%) were top sectors as investors fled for safety within equity markets. Only four sectors closed the day with gains. Technology (XLK -1.36%) and Energy (XLE -2.53%) were the worst performing sectors for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) had advanced +0.73% on very bullish consumer data. The US 30y treasury bond yield remained flat while the 10y and 2y note yields declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while the Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.790. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moved back toward neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four big mega-caps declined for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) recovered from lows to close just -0.13% and a nice thick green candle on lower volume. It's trading below its 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL) declined -1.51% and closed just above the 21d EMA. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.11% and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -1.64%. Both are still trading well above key moving average lines and near all-time highs. Amazon could not hold onto aftermarket gains from a positive earnings report. A bit of a theme for the week. Tesla (TSLA), Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ) and Proctor & Gamble (PG) were the top mega-cap gainers for the day. At the bottom of the mega-cap list were Exxon Mobile (XOM), ASML Holdings (ASML), PayPal (PYPL) and Nvidia (NVDA). Only a handful of the daily update growth stocks rose for the day. Digital Turbine (APPS), NIO (NIO), Moderna (MRNA) and Snowflake (SNOW) topped the list. At the bottom of the list was Twitter (TWTR) with a huge -15.16% declined after providing disappointing guidance on user growth. Roku (ROKU), Solar Edge (SEDG) and Etsy (ETSY) were also at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Monday will kick off the month of May with Manufacturing data, which should show growth in the sector given the other economic recovery data. Earnings reports on Monday will include Alibaba (BABA), Estee Lauder (EL), Loews (LO), SolarEdge (SEDG), and Avis (CAR). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index is back just below the 14,000 line. If it dips again, expect some resistance at this line before making new highs. The trend line from the 3/5 low, points to a +1.65% advance. The five-day trend line results in a +0.16% gain. The one-day trend line points to a -0.61% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The week was full of positive earnings reports that turned into lower prices for the stocks. Investors seem worried that some of these outperforming companies will not be able to hold the growth into the next few quarters, especially relative to the previous year. Investors were especially sensitive to any guidance that was neutral to negative for the coming quarters. In addition to that sentiment, investors are watching economic indicators very closely. Although inflation is a positive sign that economic activity is returning, driving demand faster than supply, too much inflation could cause a reaction from the Fed. Not everyone believes the Fed will sit back indefinitely waiting for transitional inflation to subside. That results in investors moving into safer assets as they look over the coming quarters. Still, reactions are sometimes temporary and we could see investments rotate back into equities. For now, the expectation for the index is lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
May 2 Market UpdateIn the coming sessions, participants will want to pay attention to where the S&P 500 trades in relation to its $4,186.75-$4,110.50 balance area. Balance (Two-Timeframe Or Bracket): Rotational trade that denotes current prices offer favorable entry and exit. Balance-areas make it easy to spot change in the market (i.e., the transition from two-time frame trade, or balance, to one-time frame trade, or trend). Any activity above (below) the balance-area high suggests participants are interested in discovering higher (lower) prices. Any activity within the balance area suggests participants are looking for more information to base their next move; in such case, responsive buying and selling is the course of action. Responsive Buying (Selling): Buying (selling) in response to prices below (above) area of recent price acceptance. Initiative trade below the balance-area low suggests an inclination by participants to revert to the mean and repair some of the poor structure left behind prior discovery. Initiative trade above the balance area puts in play the $4,210.75 minimal excess rally-high, and the cluster of price extensions at and above $4,200.00, typical price targets based on Fibonacci principles. Initiative Buying (Selling): Buying (selling) within or above (below) previous price acceptance. Excess: A proper end to price discovery; the market travels too far while advertising prices. Responsive, other-timeframe (OTF) participants aggressively enter the market, leaving tails or gaps which denote unfair prices. So, in the best case, the S&P 500 makes an attempt to balance or discover prices as high as $4,300.00. In the worst case, participants look to auction the S&P 500 into prior poor structures and low-volume areas (LVNodes) that ought to offer little-to-no support. More On Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high-volume (HVNode). Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low-volume area (LVNode) which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test). If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low-volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.
TVC:DJI
by Physik
Daily Market Update for 4/29Summary: We got higher, we got lower and we got sideways. It was a whiplash day for the markets that saw record highs be broken right before a painful morning sell-off. Then the afternoon rally brought most of the major indexes back into positive territory and left the S&P 500 at another all-time record close. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 29, 2021 Facts: +0.22%, Volume higher, Closing range: 50%, Body: 47% Good: New all-time high, higher volume, recovery from morning selling in afternoon Bad: Couldn't hold the high, lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, long lower wick with a thick red body in upper half of candle Advance/Decline: Just slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.68%), DJI (+0.71%), RUT (-0.38%), VIX (+1.91%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +2.77%) and Financial (XLF +1.78%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.08%) and Health (XLV -0.40%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview We got higher, we got lower and we got sideways. It was a whiplash day for the markets that saw record highs be broken right before a painful morning sell-off. Then the afternoon rally brought most of the major indexes back into positive territory and left the S&P 500 at another all-time record close. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +0.22% gain, a close that is within the highs and lows of the week, marking a sideways move. Volume was higher as the morning high set a record for the index, before selling off to a morning low which is also a low for the week. Finally in the afternoon, the index climbed back to the positive, leaving us with a long lower wick underneath a 47% red body and 50% closing range. There were nearly two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 closed at a record high, gaining +0.68% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) closed the day with a +0.71% gain. The Russell 2000 (RUT) underperformed the other indexes for the first time in several days, losing -0.38%. The VIX volatility index advanced +1.91%. Communications (XLC +2.77%) was a top sector thanks to earning reports from Alphabet earlier in the week and Facebook yesterday. Financials (XLF +1.78%) was the second best of the day. Technology (XLK -0.08%) and Health (XLV -0.40%) were the only losing sectors for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) had advanced +0.04%. The US 30y treasury bond and 10y note yield advanced while the 2y note yield both declined. The yield curve is beginning to steepen again with the spread between long term and short term yields widening over the past week. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices rose while the Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advancedslightly. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.585. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving more toward the extreme greed range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index topped for the first time since February, coming in at 103.72 this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Alphabet (GOOGL) it's advance after a great earnings report earlier this week, gaining +1.53% today. Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.37% ahead of earnings today. Aftermarket the stock is +2.3% on a positive reaction from earnings. Apple (AAPL) ended the day with a -0.07% after a positive earnings report that sent the stock up +2.61% before fading. Microsoft (MSFT) continues a second day of declines, losing -0.81% today and closing below its 21d EMA. Facebook (FB) topped the list of mega-caps with a +7.3% gain and helping the communications sector top the sector list for the day. Comcast (CMCSA), Bank of America (BAC) and Alphabet (GOOGL) also topped the list with greater than 2% gains. At the bottom of the list were Tesla (TSLA), Mastercard (MA), PayPal (PYPL) and Alibaba (BABA). It was not a great day for growth stocks, with most of the stocks in the daily update list declining for the day. Pinterest (PINS), Dr Horton (DHI), Zynga (ZNGA) were among the few gainers. MongoDB (MDB), Ehang Holdings (EH), NIO (NIO) and ServiceNow (NOW) had losses over 5% with ServiceNow declining -9.37%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Thursday, new GDP data will be released which is expected to be 6.5%. Initial Jobless Claims data will hopefully continue to fall. Pending Home Sales data will be released after market open. Friday will close the big earnings week with Alibaba (BABA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), AbbVie (ABBV), Chevron (CVX), AstraZeneca (AZN), Johnson Controls (JCI), and Komatsu (KMTUY). Be sure to check your portfolio for earnings reports so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index set a new all-time high today, then dipped between the 14,000 support area before the bulls came in to end back above the key level. The trend line from the 3/5 low, points to a +0.99% advance. The five-day trend line results in a +0.71% gain. Despite the lower close, the one-day trend line points to a +0.20% for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a whiplash day with a mixed finish. A record close for the S&P 500, an indecisive candle on the RUT, and a mediocre finish for the Nasdaq. Move earnings have been met with positive reaction after hours only to turn into negative moves the following day. But overall the market is still in an uptrend. We'll look for momentum from the today's afternoon to carry into tomorrow's morning, hopefully boosted by positive economic news around employment and consumer sentiment and behaviors. The expectations is still for sideways or higher and if we get lower, we'll revisit what might be driving investors in one direction or the other. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 4/28Summary: The market attempted to rally a few times today but came back to rest at intraday lows. The good news is those lows seemed to be support areas that the bears could not bust below. The two intraday rallies came in the morning and afternoon, the first possibly on earnings reactions and the second on no surprises from the FOMC press conference. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 28, 2021 Facts: -0.28%, Volume lower, Closing range: 17%, Body: 32% Good: Lower volume, sideways movement, with support above 14,000 Bad: Lower high and lower low with a low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Long upper wick above a small red body and low closing range Advance/Decline: Just slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.08%), DJI (-0.48%), RUT (+0.13%), VIX (-1.59%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.45%) and Communications (XLC +0.92%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.35%) and Technology (XLK -0.93%) Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market attempted to rally a few times today but came back to rest at intraday lows. The good news is those lows seemed to be support areas that the bears could not bust below. The two intraday rallies came in the morning and afternoon, the first possibly on earnings reactions and the second on no surprises from the FOMC press conference. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.28% loss in a day after testing and getting support around 14,050 three times. The long upper wick was formed from the morning and afternoon rally. The small 32% red body rests in the bottom of the candle above a 17% closing range and a small lower wick. Volume was lower for the day and there were just slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to outperform with a +0.13% advance today. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.08% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.48%. The VIX volatility index declined -1.59%. The combination of low volatility, along with low volume decline, plus the support at intraday lows is a good signal. Energy (XLE +1.21%) and Communications (XLC +0.92%) were the top sectors of the day. Energy was buoyed by positive data on oil demand. Communications rose on excitement over Alphabet's surprise beat on earnings. Real Estate (XLRE -0.35%) and Technology (XLK -0.93%) were the bottom performers for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) had declined -0.32%. The US 30y treasury bond yield remained flat. The US 10y and 2y treasury note yields both declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices rose while the Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices stayed flat. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined slightly. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) also had small declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.602. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains just on the greed side of the neutral area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) had opposite reactions to positive earnings reports, likely based on investor reaction to guidance given during the releases. Alphabet gapped higher with a +2.97% gain for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) gapped lower with a -2.83% loss for the day. Both break out in opposite directions from their respective bases. Microsoft's base broke downward but did get support at the 21d EMA line. Amazon (AMZN) continues a breakout from earlier this week with a +1.20% gain today. Apple (AAPL) moved lower with a -0.60% loss, but remains within its base. Exxon Mobile (XOM), Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) join Alphabet as the top four mega-caps for the day. Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and ASML Holdings (ASML) were the bottom four. UP Fintech (TIGR), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), SNAP (SNAP) and Etsy (ETSY) topped the daily update growth stock list. At the bottom of the list were Enphase (ENPH) and Pinterest (PINS) with big -14% losses. AMD had a very positive post market reaction from yesterday's earnings report, but couldn't hold the gains and ended the day with a -1.40% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Thursday, new GDP data will be released which is expected to be 6.5%. Initial Jobless Claims data will hopefully continue to fall. Pending Home Sales data will be released after market open. We will also get any reaction from Biden's remarks to congress which are expected to have updates on economic support as well as taxes to pay for infrastructure plans. Earnings reports have been mostly positive this week, but reactions have been mixed. On Thursday, reports include Amazon (AMZN), Mastercard (MA), Comcast (CMCSA), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), McDonald's (MCD), Baidu (BIDU), Atlassian (TEAM), Twitter (TWTR), Fortinet (FTNT), Royal Caribbean (RCL), and Logitech (LOGI). Be sure to check your portfolio for earnings reports so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index declined today but stayed about the 14,000 support area. The trend line from the 3/5 low, points to a +0.99% advance. The five-day trend line results in a +0.71% gain. Despite the lower close, the one-day trend line points to a +0.20% for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up A few positive earnings reports weren't enough to give the markets the lift they needed, although the bulls certainly made attempts during the day. Nervousness remained over additional earnings reports coming later today and this week. And investors await remarks from Biden that will include proposals around new taxes. The capital gains tax would seem to be priced in by now, but any further surprises from the President's speech could have a negative reaction. However, given the support the index got at intraday lows above 14,000 and the positive earnings reports in after hours, it's reasonable to expect the markets to move higher tomorrow. At a minimum they should move sideways. If they move lower, then that should be a red flag that something else is going on. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/27Summary: The Nasdaq opened with a gap up but couldn't hold on, selling off briskly in the morning along with the other major indexes. Eventually positive consumer confidence numbers and continued growing demand outlook from OPEC helped the markets to settle down and end the day with a relatively small pull back overall. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 27, 2021 Facts: -0.34%, Volume higher, Closing range: 24%, Body: 75% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Gap up at open, but couldn't hold on, distribution day on higher volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: No upper wick, thick red body with a short lower wick Advance/Decline: Two declining stocks for each advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.02%), DJI (+0.01%), RUT (+0.14%), VIX (-0.45%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.21%) and Industrials (XLI +0.83%) were top. Health (XLV -0.58%) and Utilities (XLU -0.77%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq opened with a gap up but couldn't hold on, selling off briskly in the morning along with the other major indexes. Eventually positive consumer confidence numbers and continued growing demand outlook from OPEC helped the markets to settle down and end the day with a relatively small pull back overall. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.34% decline on higher volume. The distribution day resulted in a 75% red body that ended with a 25% closing range. A small lower wick was formed in the morning before the index found support above 14,000. The higher high and higher low continue an uptrend since last Wednesday. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed again with a +0.14% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) ended the day with a +0.01% gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.02%. The VIX volatility index declined -0.45%. Only three sectors gained for the day. Energy (XLE +1.21%), Industrials (XLI +0.83%), Financials (XLF +0.79%) were the gainers. Health (XLV -0.58%) and Utilities (XLU -0.77%) were the biggest losers. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) had a small +0.05% gain. The US 30y treasury bond and US 10y and 2y note yields all advanced for the day. The spread widened between the 10y and 2y note yields. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both declined. Silver (SILVER) advanced while Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.548. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains just on the greed side of the neutral area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) advanced with +0.16% and +0.25% gains. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined with -0.24% and -0.82% losses. Both Microsoft and Alphabet beat expectations on earnings reports after hours. Microsoft declined almost 4% in afterhours trading before gaining back some. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained over 4% in afterhours. The mixed reactions are result of the high expectations from investors. Microsoft had great results, but Alphabet absolutely smashed results. Alphabet also announced a stock buyback of $50 billion. Alibaba (BABA), Exxon Mobile (XOM), Bank of America (BAC) and Oracle (ORCL) were a diverse mix of mega-caps to top the list for today. Tesla (TSLA) was at the bottom of the list with a -4.53% decline despite beating analyst expectations in their earnings report yesterday. Intel (INTC), Verizon (VZ) and PayPal (PYPL) round out the top four mega-caps. Growth stocks were mixed for the day. Ehang Holdings (EH), RH (RH), Moderna (MRNA) and JD.com (JD) were the top gainers, all advancing over 3%. UP Fintech (TIGR), NIO (NIO) and Tesla (TSLA) were at the bottom of the list. Investors reacted positively to AMD's (AMD) earnings report, sending the stock up 4%. Pinterest (PINS) warned about lower user growth after the pandemic and the stock slid over 10% in afterhours trading. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Wednesday's news will include the Goods Trade Balance and Retail Inventories before market open. Crude Oil Inventories after the market open. There is a Fed Interest Rate Decision and FOMC Press Conference after 2pm. No changes are expected to monetary policy, but investors will watch closely the words and tone during the broadcast. President Biden is expected to announce his tax proposals in a speech after the market closes. There may be some caution added to the market sentiment tomorrow based on the latter two news events. Wednesday includes earnings reports from Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Qualcomm (QCOM), Boeing (BA), Shopify (SHOP), ServiceNow (NOW), ADP (ADP), Spotify (SPOT), Ford (F), eBay (EBAY), and Teladoc (TDOC). Be sure to check your portfolio for earnings reports so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index nearly made it to a new all-time high before dipping in the morning. It did hold key support areas. The five-day trend line results in a +0.96% gain. The trend line from the 3/5 low, points to a +0.25% decline. The one-day trend line shows a sideways trend to -0.08%, which may be reasonable if sentiment is cautious heading into the late day speeches by the Fed and President. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It feels like the market is search for some direction based on earnings reports released so far this week. Tesla had great results, but investors are cautious about some of the headwinds in China and the safety issues in the US. Microsoft had record results but not quite enough to keep investors satisfied after hours. Alphabet and AMD were heartedly supported after their results. The reaction to other earnings reports such as Visa and Starbucks seem to be in line with the results. Based on the candlestick chart, the higher high and higher low kept the Nasdaq in an uptrend, but the red candle and failed gap up provide some mixed signal. So the expectation is for sideways tomorrow and investors continue to cautiously watch earnings while also reacting to the tone from the Fed and any unexpected news from Biden. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/26Summary: Momentum from the end of last week continued into Monday as markets open the week higher and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new records. There are some signs that investors are rotating out of safe bets and buying up speculative positions ahead of earnings reports. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 26, 2021 Facts: +0.87%, Volume higher, Closing range: 89%, Body: 64% Good: Move up on higher volume and broadly shared gains Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Longer lower wick from dip at open, short upper wick after testing new high Advance/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.18%), DJI (-0.18%), RUT (+1.15%), VIX (+1.79%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +0.67%) and Materials (XLB +0.59%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.57%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -1.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Momentum from the end of last week continued into Monday as markets open the week higher and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new records. There are some signs that investors are rotating out of safe bets and buying up speculative positions ahead of earnings reports. The Nasdaq had a record-setting close, ending the with a +0.87% gain and fell just shy of setting a new all-time high price. Volume was higher and advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks, great bullish signals for the rally. The closing range of 89% comes after a small dip before close. A longer lower wick was created by a dip just after open before the bulls quickly took over. The S&P 500 also had a record-setting close, advancing +0.18%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the major indexes for a fourth day, gaining +1.15% as it attempts to climb back towards highs. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.18%. The VIX volatility index rose +1.79%. Energy (XLE +0.67%) and Materials (XLB +0.59%) were the top sectors of the day. Financials (XLF +0.40%) started the day in the lead, but faded thru the day. Utilities (XLU -0.57%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -1.12%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) remained flat with a +0.01% gain. The US 30y treasury bond and US 10y and 2y note yields all advanced for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. Core Durable Goods orders for March indicate increased demand for commodities. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.492. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index remains just on the greed side of the neutral area. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four biggest mega-caps gained today heading into earnings reports this week. Amazon (AMZN) gained +2.04%, nearing the top of a three week base. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) had smaller gains but are also tempting breakouts from recent bases. Investors are optimistic for positive earnings reports from these giants. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), PayPal (PYPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA) topped the mega-cap list. Tesla (TSLA) also was near the top heading into an earnings report that beat but sent the stock back down after hours. Some of that may be jitters about safety issues domestically and controversy in China, but something a negative reaction to positive earnings is something to watch closely with other mega-cap earnings this week. At the bottom of the mega-cap list were Walmart (WMT), Coca-Cola (KO), Pepsico (PEP) and Procter & Gamble (PG). These are the top four by cap in the consumer staples sector (XLP). Investors are rotating out of consumer staples and into riskier assets. It was another good day for the growth stock list with almost all the stocks tracked by the daily update having gains. At the top of the list were Ehang Holdings (EH), MongoDb (MDB), GrowGeneration (GRWG) and UP Fintech (TIGR). At the bottom of the list were Twitter (TWTR), JD.com (JD), SNAP (SNAP) and Etsy (ETSY). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The House Price Index data on Tuesday will be interesting. It has been at its highest level since 2014. Higher prices are supposed to be bullish for the USD. Consumer Confidence data will be released just after market open. The API Weekly crude oil report will be released after close. Probably more important than the economic news will be the earnings reports. On Tuesday, Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Visa (V), Eli Lily (LLY), United Parcel Service (UPS), Starbucks (SBUX), General Electric (GE), 3M (MMM), AMD (AMD), ABB (ABB), Pinterest (PINS), Enphase (ENPH), and FireEye (FEYE). Be sure to check your portfolio for earnings reports so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index neared the all-time high, stopped just short of it, but still set a record close. The one-day trend line points to a +0.76% gain for Tuesday. The five-day trend line results in a +0.43% gain. The trend line from the 3/5 low, points to a -0.39% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The speculation ahead of earnings reports is a bit obvious in Monday's market movements. Rotations out of defensive plays and into growth sectors is coupled with a dip in the put/call ratio to an overly bullish level. Nonetheless, we have been waiting for a momentum signal of broad gains on higher volume. But investors should be careful since the market may be pricing in the positive earnings ahead of the actual reports. The first example is Tesla beat expectations, but its price is dropping after hours. Tesla's drop may be from other issues and not the earnings reports. But it could be that the market priced in the beat ahead of time and sold the news. If that continues throughout the week, it would be an ominous signal for big-tech and growth stocks. Keep a close eye on the earnings reports even if you don't own the stock. And definitely know when earnings reports are due for your portfolio to not be surprised. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week in Review - 4/19/2021 - 4/23/2021Summary: The start to the week was not much of a surprise. Major indexes pulled back from record highs set the previous week. Those highs were from overextended mega-caps and the daily gains were not shared broadly across the market. We were watching for a day with broader gains and higher volume. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, April 19, 2021 Facts: -0.98%, Volume lower, Closing range: 36%, Body: 35% Good: Afternoon support after hitting 13,850 Bad: Lower high, lower low, back below 14,000 line Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Body in the middle of candle, about equal upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: Almost four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.53%), DJI (-0.36%), RUT (-1.36%), VIX (+6.40%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.31%) and Health (XLV +0.02%) were only gaining sectors. Technology (XLK -0.83%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.12%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower After closing last week at record highs, it's reasonable that the equity markets pull back a bit before advancing again. That pull back came abruptly as the session opened in the morning but the markets found some support heading into the afternoon. The Nasdaq declined -0.98% on lower volume for the day. The upper wick formed in the first 15 minutes of trading, The declines came mostly in the morning, forming the lower wick. The candle finished the day with a 36% closing range at the bottom of a red 35% body in the center of the candle. There were almost 4 declining stocks for every one advancing stock on a day of lower highs and lower lows. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, April 20, 2021 Facts: -0.92%, Volume lower, Closing range: 38%, Body: 47% Good: Support at 21d EMA and 13,700 area Bad: Closing range from morning sell-off Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thick red body with a longer lower wick Advance/Decline: Almost five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.68%), DJI (-0.75%), RUT (-1.96%), VIX (+8.00%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +1.27%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.11%) were the top sectors. Financials (XLF -1.87%) and Energy (XLE -2.65%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The market continued to pull back for another day as investors begin to absorb more earnings reports. Those results and the guidance not only impact to their respective stock prices but also indicate what parts of the economy are recovering faster or slower. The Nasdaq closed down -0.92% on lower volume with a closing range of 38%. That closing range came after heavy morning selling, a bounce off the 21d EMA and a few tests of the 13,700 area. The index find support there and rallied a bit into close to finish with a thick red 47% red body over a longer lower wick. There were almost five declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, April 21, 2021 Facts: +1.19%, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Body: 84% Good: Test of 21d EMA in morning then buying throughout the day, rally into close Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Long green body with no upper wick, small lower wick Advance/Decline: Five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.93%), DJI (+0.93%), RUT (+2.35%), VIX (-6.32%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.82%) and Financials (XLF +1.39%) were the top sectors. Communications (XLC +0.17%) and Utilities (-0.84%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher The gains were broad across segments and sectors today, pivoting the indexes to the upside after a few days of declines. The only thing that was missing is higher volume that would indicate more institutional support in the gains. We'll take what we got for now and then keep a close eye in the days to come. The Nasdaq finally had the advance/decline ratio above 1.0 after eight sessions in a row of more decliners than advancers. Along with great support from mega-caps, the index closed with a +1.19% gain and a closing range of 100%. The 84% green body is above a small lower wick formed from a dip at open. Otherwise, the bulls led the index higher through the whole day. There were over 5 advancing stocks for every 2 declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 22, 2021 Facts: -0.94%, Volume higher, Closing range: 19%, Body: 55% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Mid-day reversal on high volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Reversal candle, gap up with long upper wick, turning into a lower close Advance/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.92%), DJI (-0.94%), RUT (-0.31%), VIX (+6.91%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE -0.43%) and Health (XLV -0.45%) were top. Technology (XLK -1.17%) and Materials (XLB -1.69%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The day started by honoring the expectation we had of a move higher, but a mid-day reversal busted that expectation, erasing the gains and sending prices plummeting. The reason was obvious. News broke that Biden would propose a huge increase in capital gains tax. So we'll look closely at the impact and what we might expect from here. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.94% decline on higher volume. The higher volume distribution starting at the 1pm news alert. The 94% red body is below a longer upper wick that formed from the morning rally before the news. The closing range is 19% and shows some recovery from the initial selling of the news. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 23, 2021 Facts: +1.44%, Volume lower, Closing range: 78%, Body: 75% Good: Now lower wick, strong buying all morning Bad: Slight dip into close as the weekend arrives Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a longer upper wick from the dip at close Advance/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.09%), DJI (+0.67%), RUT (+1.76%), VIX (-7.38%) Sectors: Financial (XLF +1.87%) and Materials (XLB +1.64%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.13%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.26%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher Strong economic data sent the markets higher on Friday as investors shook off the capital gains tax worries. Small caps took the lead for another session as gains were shared broadly across segments and sectors. The Nasdaq gained +1.44% on lower volume than yesterday, but higher volume than earlier in the week. The 75% body is above a very tiny lower wick. The closing range of 78% is just below a longer upper wick that formed in the last 30 minutes of the session from selling into the weekend. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The start to the week was not much of a surprise. Major indexes pulled back from record highs set the previous week. Those highs were from overextended mega-caps and the daily gains were not shared broadly across the market. We were watching for a day with broader gains and higher volume. After two days of pullbacks, that hit the small caps the hardest, the turn in the in the market came on Wednesday. The advance/decline line finally moved above 1.0 with five advancing stocks for every two declining stocks, but volume was still lower than previous days. It looked like we would get the broad gains and higher volume on Thursday as the market opened with another rally. But the rally was short lived. News of Biden raising the capital gains tax hit the street and investors sold off positions in the afternoon. But even in the selling, small caps were still outperforming and there was a sense that the sell the news event would find a bottom and the rally could resume. And it did. Friday picked back up where we were trying to go on Thursday morning. There were broad gains across the market. And although volume was lower than Thursday, it was higher than the previous days and gave us the positive signal we were looking for. This growth/value comparison we've been tracking continued to move sideways this week as growth and value plays moved together. The Nasdaq retreated -0.25% for the week, but ended with a closing range of 87% after recovering from the dip at the beginning of the week and rebounding from the capital gains tax scare mid-week. The index was able to set just a slightly higher high than the previous week, but also set a lower low. More importantly, the index closed above 14,000 for a second week in a row. Volume was lower than the previous week. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.41% for the week thanks to a strong small cap performance late in the week. The S&P 500 lost -0.13% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.46%. The VIX volatility index rose +6.65% over a back-and-forth week. Despite the declines across the major indexes, there were two sectors that soared. Real Estate ( XLRE ) ended the week as the top sector, advancing over 2%. Three factors helped the sector breakout and then stay on top the whole week. The economic recovery is a boon for the real estate industry as occupancy rates climb driving demand and prices higher. Interest rates remain low thanks to the Fed's continued easy money policy, keeping costs low. And in a climate of nervous investors, fearful of new lockdowns around the world, the real estate sector becomes a nice defensive play that has growth potential as well. Healthcare ( XLV ) was the second best sector of the week. The sector has lagged behind the S&P 500 since the beginning of the year. Positive earnings reports from UnitedHealth ( UNH ) and Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ ) over the past few weeks gave it the momentum needed to catch up with a 1.81% advance this week. The only other sectors that had gains for the week were Materials ( XLB ) and Industrials ( XLI ), both responding positively to great economic recovery news. At the bottom of the sector list were Energy ( XLE ) and Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ). Energy stocks continue to underperform as oil prices have been dropping in recent weeks. Consumer Discretionary was a big part of the S&P 500 setting records the previous three weeks and was due to pause or pullback this week. Earnings reports from Tesla ( TSLA ) and Amazon ( AMZN ) next week will have a big influence on the sector performance. The yield curve continues to flatten this week with the US 30y treasury bond and US 10y treasury note yields both declining. The US 2y note yield rose slightly. Both the High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced for the week. The US Dollar (DXY) continues to slide from the end of March, declining another -0.86% this week. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) both advanced for the week. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined -1.46%. Timber (WOOD) declined -1.71% but is still near highs. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced for another week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Big Four Mega-caps The big four mega-caps continue to outpace the rest of the market. Alphabet (GOOGL) moved up +0.75% for the week. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.16% while Apple (AAPL) advanced +0.12%. Only Amazon (AMZN) declined for the week, losing -1.72%. All four are trading above their 10w and 40w moving average lines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Only Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) could end the week with a light gain after dipping below its 10w moving average line and closing above it. Marriott (MAR) also dipped below the line but close above it, declining just -0.18% for the week. Exxon Mobil (XOM) declined -1.92%, closing the week below the 10w moving average. Delta (DAL) declined -1.80% and also remained below the line. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) closed the week 0.651. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved to the greed side but not far off neutral. The NAAIM exposure index remained about the same, moving just slightly lower to 95.6. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday will kick-off the week with Core Durable Goods orders data for March. The data is a leading indicator showing increased manufacturing data to respond to higher consumer demand. The House Price Index data on Tuesday will be interesting. It has been at its highest level since 2014. Higher prices are supposed to be bullish for the USD. Consumer Confidence data will be released just after market open. The API Weekly crude oil report will be released after close. Wednesday's news will include the Good Trade Balance and Retail Inventories before market open. Crude Oil Inventories after the market open. There is a Fed Interest Rate Decision and FOMC Press Conference after 2pm. On Thursday, new GDP data will be released which is expected to be 6.5%. Initial Jobless Claims data will hopefully continue to fall. Pending Home Sales data will be released after market open. Inflation will be front and center again on Friday. PCE Price Index data will be released in the morning. That will compliment Personal Spending data and Consumer Expectations and Sentiment that have all been driving higher demand and higher prices. The frequency of earnings reports will start to pick up next week. Investors will be watching all earnings reports closely to measure sector performance in the economic recovery. Kicking off on Monday will be reports from Tesla (TSLA), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Canon (CAJ), Albertsons (ACI). On Tuesday, Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Visa (V), Eli Lily (LLY), United Parcel Service (UPS), Starbucks (SBUX), General Electric (GE), 3M (MMM), AMD (AMD), ABB (ABB), and FireEye (FEYE). Wednesday includes reports from Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Qualcomm (QCOM), Boeing (BA), Shopify (SHOP), ServiceNow (NOW), ADP (ADP), Spotify (SPOT), Ford (F), eBay (EBAY), and Teladoc (TDOC). On Thursday, Amazon (AMZN), Mastercard (MA), Comcast (CMCSA), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), McDonald's (MCD), Baidu (BIDU), Atlassian (TEAM), Twitter (TWTR), Fortinet (FTNT), Royal Caribbean (RCL), and Logitech (LOGI). Friday will close the big earnings week with Alibaba (BABA), Exxon Mobil (XOM), AbbVie (ABBV), Chevron (CVX), AstraZeneca (AZN), Johnson Controls (JCI), and Komatsu (KMTUY). It would be an understatement to say this is not an exhaustive list. Check your own portfolio for earnings dates so you aren't surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Despite the scare on Thursday, the market gave us a lot to be excited about in the last three days. We saw the advance/decline line finally move above 1.0 as the small caps began to rebound and drive the Russell 2000 higher. With the mega-caps also moving up, it will provide a lot of momentum into next week, possibly getting the Nasdaq to a new all-time high. More economic news throughout the week should support the view that the economy is booming and drive further positive sentiment to the market. Treasury yields are coming down, making money cheaper again. The USD dollar weakening can be a boost to large multinationals. Positive earnings reports this week may be just the boost the market needs to head higher. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Volume continues to move lower even as the market gains, potentially signaling a top. From the start of the year, the highest volume weeks are red declining weeks. This may be the reduction of retail investors participating in the active market, but it could also be institutions reducing positions. Any of the economic news events this week could be a negative surprise start a sell-off. Especially any hints from the Fed of monetary policy changes would be received with a big negative reaction. Positive earnings reports this week may already be priced in, and any disappointing results or guidance will certainly alarm investors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq closed above 14,000 two weeks in a row, but can it move toward an all-time high? That's the question for this week. On the positive side, the levels are: 14,062.74 is the high of this week. That will be the first price to beat this week. The all-time high is at 14,175.12. 14,727 is the middle line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom. The index has been below the midline for the past nine weeks. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The 10d MA is at 13,928.15. The index dipped below this line the past week, but closed above it on Friday. The 21d exponential moving average is at 13,739.15. The low of this past week is 13,698.67. Let's get a higher low for next week. The 50d moving average is at 13,504.97. The lower line of the channel from the March 2020 bottom is around 13,360 for next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There are smart people that say the market is extended and positive news and earning reports are already priced in. There are also smart people who believe the recovering economy and support of the Fed is going to send the market higher. I try to see both sides in the market week in review, so how to decide? Follow price. Next week, with all the earning reports and economic news, the only questions that need to be answered is what happens to the indexes and what happens to the stocks in your portfolio. Live by your investment rules and let them be your guide. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/23Summary: Very strong economic data sent the markets higher on Friday as investors shook off the capital gains worries. Small caps took the lead for another session as gains were shared broadly across segments and sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, April 23, 2021 Facts: +1.44%, Volume lower, Closing range: 78%, Body: 75% Good: Now lower wick, strong buying all morning Bad: Slight dip into close as the weekend arrives Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a longer upper wick from the dip at close Advance/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.09%), DJI (+0.67%), RUT (+1.76%), VIX (-7.38%) Sectors: Financial (XLF +1.87%) and Materials (XLB +1.64%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.13%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.26%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Very strong economic data sent the markets higher on Friday as investors shook off the capital gains worries. Small caps took the lead for another session as gains were shared broadly across segments and sectors. The Nasdaq gained +1.44% on lower volume than yesterday, but higher volume than earlier in the week. The 75% body is above a very tiny lower wick. The closing range of 78% is just below a longer upper wick that formed in the last 30 minutes of the session from selling into the weekend. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the major indexes for a third day, bucking the trend of lower performance the last few weeks. It gained +1.76% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed with a +1.09% advance while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) closed up +0.67%. The VIX volatility index retreated -7.38%. Financial (XLF +1.87%) and Materials (XLB +1.64%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.13%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.26%) were the only sectors with declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.49%. The sharp decline came as treasury bonds sold off. The US 30y treasury bond and US 10y and 2y note yields all advanced for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices both advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both advanced. The commodities advance are after surprisingly strong economic data following a great jobs report yesterday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call rose to 0.651. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving toward the greed side, but not at extreme greed. The NAAIM money manager exposure index remains about the same as last week at 95.6. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four biggest mega-caps gained today. Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +2.10%, closing at a new all-time high. Apple (AAPL) gained +1.80%. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +1.55%. Amazon (AMZN) held onto a +0.96% despite fading later in the session. ASML Holding (ASML), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Nvidia (NVDA) and Bank of America (BAC) led the mega-caps for the day, all with more than 2% gains. Intel (INTC), Netflix (NFLX), Procter & Gamble) and Pepsico (PEP) were at the bottom of the list. Almost every stock in the daily update growth list had gains for the day. UP Fintech (TIGR) led the list with a +14.18% gain. Cloudflare (NET), SNAP (SNAP) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) round out the top four. MongoDb (MDB), Peloton (PTON) and Beyond Meat (BYND) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Monday will kick-off the week with Core Durable Goods orders data for March. The data is a leading indicator showing increased manufacturing data to respond to higher consumer demand. The frequency of earnings reports will really start to pick up next week. Kicking off on Monday will be reports from Tesla (TSLA), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Canon (CAJ), Albertsons (ACI). Investors will be watching all earnings reports closely to measure sector performance in the economic recovery. Be sure to check your portfolio for earnings reports so you are not surprised. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index was able to get back above the 14,000 area and hold that line even with the dip at close. The one-day trend line points to a +1.40% gain for Monday. The trend line from the 3/5 low, points to a +0.35% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -0.23% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The worries about higher capital gains tax was short lived. Biden has always said he would raise taxes and so those worries were likely already priced in. Today's rally easily erased yesterday's downward reversal from the sell the news event. The economic data this morning included higher Services and Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales data that exceeded even high expectations. Add that to the positive jobs data yesterday and it was enough to excite investors over the strong economy today. Still, investors will watch earnings reports closely next week to see what sectors are performing best in the recovery. Not only will earnings be compared to last year's pandemic numbers, but guidance for the next quarter and year will be watch closely. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 4/22Summary: The day started by honoring the expectation we had of a move higher, but a mid-day reversal busted that expectation, erasing the gains and sending prices plummeting. The reason was obvious. News broke that Biden would propose a huge increase in capital gains tax. So we'll look closely at the impact and what we might expect from here. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, April 22, 2021 Facts: -0.94%, Volume higher, Closing range: 19%, Body: 55% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Mid-day reversal on high volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Reversal candle, gap up with long upper wick, turning into a lower close Advance/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.92%), DJI (-0.94%), RUT (-0.31%), VIX (+6.91%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE -0.43%) and Health (XLV -0.45%) were top. Technology (XLK -1.17%) and Materials (XLB -1.69%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The day started by honoring the expectation we had of a move higher, but a mid-day reversal busted that expectation, erasing the gains and sending prices plummeting. The reason was obvious. News broke that Biden would propose a huge increase in capital gains tax. So we'll look closely at the impact and what we might expect from here. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.94% decline on higher volume. The higher volume distribution starting at the 1pm news alert. The 94% red body is below a longer upper wick that formed from the morning rally before the news. The closing range is 19% and shows some recovery from the initial selling of the news. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) rallied 1.25% in the morning before downturn. It ended the day with a -0.31% loss, fairing the best among the major indexes. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.92% while the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) declined -0.94%, both giving up most of yesterday's gains. The VIX volatility index rose +6.91%. There was a sharp change in the sector performance list at the news. All sectors lost gains in the morning and ended the day with a loss. Growth sectors moved to the bottom along with Materials (XLB -1.69%) which has been outperforming the other sectors recently. Real Estate (XLRE -0.43%) and Health (XLV -0.45%) were top sectors for the day. Technology (XLK -1.17%) and Materials (XLB -1.69%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.18%. The US 30y treasury bond and US 10y and 2y note yields all declined for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined. Timber (WOOD) declined for another day. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) both declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call rose to 0.639. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is leaning toward the greed side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four biggest mega-caps declined for the day. Amazon (AMZN) lost -1.58%, Microsoft (MSFT) was down -1.31%, Apple (AAPL) declined -1.17% and Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -1.13%. They all still trade above the 21d EMA and bases are intact. AT&T (T) gained +4.15% after a great earnings report and didn't seem impacted by the afternoon swing (although it did close off intraday highs after morning profit taking). Abbot Labs (ABT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Mastercard (MA) were also at the top of the mega-cap list, but all with under 1% gains. Most mega-caps declined for the day with high-growth names such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) taking the worst hits. The growth stock list was not terribly impacted by the afternoon sell-off. About half of the daily update list closed the day with gains. Solar Edge (SEDG) and Enphase (ENPH) topped the list with 7.69% and 3.74% gains. Crowdstrike (CRWD) and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) also ended the day near the top of the list. At the bottom of the list were Draft Kings (DKNG), PENN Gaming (PENN), Grow Generation (GRWG) and Twitter (TWTR). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead On Friday the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index data will be released. The data is an indicator for economic activity the respective sectors. New Home Sales data will also be released in the morning. Friday will close the week with earnings reports from Honeywell (HON) and American Express (AXP). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The index popped above 14,000 in the morning before the afternoon downside reversal. It seemed to find support at around 13,800. The trend line from the 3/5 low points to a +1.50% gain for Friday. The five-day trend line points to a -0.14% decline. If today's one-day trend continues, it would mean a -1.37% loss for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The news that Biden may raise the capital gains tax was enough to send the market into a short panic today. Although the tax would be a ways off, it's likely investors would take gains in the current year under the current tax rules rather than wait for later years. That sell-off at the end of year is what the market will look to price in now. You saw it show up in the hit to growth sectors and high growth stocks, especially stocks that have big gains over the past year. But there's a good possibility that the market just overreacted today to some disappointing news. A good amount of money that is in the market is protected from tax since it comes in from retirement plans and passive indexes. To what degree that's true is what we'll find out as Biden's proposal makes it through the hurdles in its way and the market prices in the impact. The news was enough to bust our expectation for Higher today and rethink where things might head for tomorrow. Based on the candlesticks, we have to observe the a downside reversal and expectation for lower tomorrow. But the higher high and higher low opens up the possibility for sideways. Sideways or lower. Certainly, we'd welcome another expectation breaker and move higher tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321