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RUSSELL 2000

Daily Market Update for 12/14Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (31d), 12/8 (5d), the 12/9 pivot (4d) and today 12/11 (1d).   If you have ideas to make the daily update better, please let me know in the comments.   I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time.   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, December 14, 2020 Once upon a time you dressed so fine Facts: +0.50%, Volume higher, Closing range: 7%, Body: 7% Good: HH/HL, gain on higher volume Bad: Long upper wick, low closing range Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Long upper shadow, very slim body Advance/Decline: 0.99, about even on advancing and declining stocks Sectors: Technology (XLK +0.36%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.15%). Expectation: Lower   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview   The Nasdaq opened the week with a gap up as first doses of the vaccine for COVID19 were being delivered to frontline health workers. The index climbed from there to a morning high, but then sold off the rest of the day to close near the open. The long upper wick of the candle indicates the buyer momentum in the morning turning to selling in the afternoon. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.50% gain on higher volume. The closing range of 7% with a 7% body and no lower wick shows the bears took over in the afternoon. There were about an even amount of advancing stocks and declining stocks.   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The Russell 2000 (RUT +0.11%) was the only other index to end the day positive. The S&P 500 (SPX -0.44%) and the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI -0.62%) both had losses on the day. All of the indexes have low closing ranges with little to no lower wicks. Technology (XLK +0.36%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.15%) were the top sectors. All other sectors were down for the day with Energy (XLE -3.50%) performing the worst. Utilities (XLU -0.51%) briefly led in the morning, indicating some defensive moves for investors, but sold off later in the day even as the major indexes fell back from morning highs.   The VIX volatility index rose +6.05%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Indicators   Yields on the US 30y, 10y and 2y treasury bonds all dropped for the day with the spreads between long term and short term remaining about the same. Corporate bond yields rose slightly for the day while short term (3-7y) treasury bond yields remained about the same. The move away from corporate bonds (causing yields to rise) is something to watch but not yet significant.     The US dollar (DXY -0.06%) declined for the day. Silver (SILVER -0.46%) and Gold (GOLD -0.63%) both dropped for the day. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1! -0.12%) was also down slightly. Timber (WOOD +0.27%) gained for the day. Copper (COPPER1! +0.00%) was even while Aluminum (ALI1! +1.59%) gained for the day.     The put/call ratio rose to 0.566, back to the overly bullish side. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market.   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders   The biggest four mega-caps had mixed days. Microsoft (MSFT +0.44%) closed back above its 21d EMA and 50d MA. Amazon (AMZN +1.3%) was able to close above its 21d EMA but could not stay above the 50d MA after crossing it mid-day. Alphabet (GOOGL -1.27%) closed below its 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL -0.51%) had a loss for the day but continues to trade above its 21d EMA and 50d MA. The moving averages are key lines of support and resistance and show how these large companies are performing in the market and influencing the indexes. Other mega-caps also had a mix of results. The biggest gainers were Tesla (TSLA +4.89%), Netflix (NFLX +3.82%), PayPal (PYPL +3.14%) and Nvidia (NVDA +2.27%).  Walt Disney (DIS -3.65%) and Pfizer (PFE -4.64%) dropped back from recent gains. Growth stocks that did well include Peloton (PTON +4.11%), Datadog (DDOG +3.32%) and Fiverr (FVRR +2.58%). An older favorite, Qualys (QLYS +7.51%) had a big gain after news of a security breach in the US Treasury department. Social Media stocks Pinterest (PINS -1.88%) and SNAP (SNAP -3.24%) did not fare so well for the day. DOMO (DOMO +20.84%) broke out on huge volume today.   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead   Economic news tomorrow will include Import/Export price indexes. Industrial Production data for November will also be released and is expected to be lower than the previous month.   There are no notable earnings announcements on Monday for the daily market update.   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a +1.92% which would bring the index back to new all-time highs. The one-day and five-day trend lines, as well as the trend line from the 12/9 pivot are pointing to a -0.5% to -0.67% loss for tomorrow. So far the 12,250 area has held-up well as support and is just above the 21d EMA. If the index passes through the 12,250 support area and the 21d EMA, then the next support area is the November support around 12,000. A drop tomorrow beyond that point should raise the alarm.   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up   It was a bit of a rocky start to the week. The market opened up with positive news that vaccines were being delivered to frontline healthcare workers. There was optimism on stimulus talks in congress as well as a positive outlook for Brexit negotiations overseas. However, as the day went on, concerns around new COVID lockdowns and what would come of the Fed meetings this week began weighing on investor confidence. The morning surge in Utilities and the dropping treasury bond yields are both signs of that nervousness, while the jitters were confirmed in the afternoon sell-off. This is likely how the week will progress. More back and forth as the market mixes positive and negative news, mixed expectations on global outlook, and measuring when the pandemic will finally come to an end. But overall, the index is starting the week with a higher low than the previous week and a higher high than the previous day. Many growth stocks are continuing to do what they are supposed to do, grow. Keep an eye out for indications of change, but the trend is your friend. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: FDX, LEN, MU, CCL EARNINGS; XOP/XLE, IWM/RUTEARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT-RELATED VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS (IN ORDER OF ANNOUNCEMENT): Here are the options-liquid underlyings announcing next week that I've culled down to 30-day >50% as candidates for volatility contraction plays: LEN (21/49/11.6%),* announcing Wednesday after market close MU (24/52/12.2%), announcing Wednesday (no time specified) FDX (29/53/11.9%), announcing Thursday after market close CCL (27/91/21.1%), announcing Friday (no time specified) Pictured here is a January 15th 17.5/27.5 short strangle in CCL which announces Friday, paying 1.36 as of Friday close with delta/theta of -4.86/4.84 with break evens wide of 2 times the expected move on the call side, and between the 1 and 2 x on the put. Although no time is currently specified, it is likely to announce before market open (because who, like, announces after Friday close?), so would look to put on a play in the waning hours of Thursday's session if you want to take advantage of Friday's post-announcement volatility contraction. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY BANG FOR YOUR BUCK: XOP (21/60/16.3%)** GDXJ (15/44/12.9%) XLE (30/45/12.5%) KRE 924/41/11.1%) SLV (25/40/11.2%) GDX (16/38/10.7%) EWZ (15/39/10.6%) XBI (24/38/10.0%) BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: IWM (25/30/7.8%) QQQ (23/30/7.6%) DIA (16/23/6.0%) SPY (16/23/5.6%) EFA (20/24/5.1%) TREASURY/BOND FUNDS: Adding a little bond/treasury section to here since I occasionally park what would otherwise be idle cash in short puts (See Post Below). TLT (11/15/3.99%) (1.609% yield) HYG (11/11/2.41%) (4.917% yield) EMB (5/9/--)*** (4.024% yield) AGG (29/8/--)*** (2.252% yield) * -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where 30-day implied is relative to where it's been over the last 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, what the January 15th at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price. ** -- Here, I'm using the short straddle price nearest 45 days until expiry to calculate the "bang for your buck" percentage, which would be the January 29th weekly. *** -- EMB and AGG don't have weeklies nearest 45 days.
NYSE:CCL
by NaughtyPines
2
Market Week In Review - 12/7/2020 - 12/11/2020The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the original charts for more detail each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, December 7, 2020 Run for your life with me Facts: +0.45%, Volume lower, Closing range: 78%, Body: 78% Good: Higher high, higher low, closing range Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: No lower wick, small upper wick, green body Advance/Decline: 0.91, slightly more declining stocks then advancing stocks Sectors: Communications (XLC +0.63%) and Utilities (XLU +0.56%) were the leading sectors. Energy (XLE -2.34%) was the worst performing sector. Expectation: Sideways or Higher It was a good start to the week for the Nasdaq. The only problem, it was only the Nasdaq. The other major indexes had decidedly different days while the Nasdaq made a new all-time high. The index ended the day with a +0.45% gain on lower volume. The closing range of 78% and green body of 78% represent a day with no lower wick where the morning open was the low and the index never revisited that spot. There were two pullbacks in the afternoon that brought the index to the middle of the range, but both were bought back. The second pull back around 3:30p followed Consumer Credit data that was half of expectation. There were slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, December 8, 2020 If anything could ever be this good again Facts: +0.50%, Volume higher, Closing range: 92%, Body: 56% Good: Close higher on volume, reversing morning lows Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Bullish outside day with longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.77, more than three advancers for every two decliners Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.49%) and Health Services (XLV +0.76%) were top sectors. Utilities (XLU -0.30%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.46%) were the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher After sending some mixed signals on Monday, the market reconfirmed the current bullish rally on Tuesday. The Nasdaq closed at an all-time high, and the Russell 2000 continued its rally after a short pause. There was more breadth in the market with more than three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks on the Nasdaq and 195 stocks making new highs. The index finished the day with a +0.50% on higher volume. The outside day is marked by a higher high and lower low than Monday and is bullish with the 92% closing range and large 56% body over a long lower wick. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, December 9, 2020 Long road to ruin there in your eyes Facts: -1.94%, Volume higher, Closing range: 15%, Body: 80% Good: Support above 12,300 Bad: Sold off with little to no upward reversals Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Bearish outside reversal day Advance/Decline: 0.54, two decliners for every advancer Sectors: Energy (XLE +0.22%) and Industrials (XLI +0.22%) were top sectors. Communications (XLC -1.19%) and Technology (XLK -1.92%) were the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower 191 stocks on the Nasdaq managed to set a new high before the index took a downward spiral that never came back. The index closed sharply down after progress stalled in congress to pass a new stimulus bill. By the end of the day there were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Nasdaq finished with a -1.94% loss on higher volume. The closing range of 15% and 80% red body define a bearish outside reversal candle with a higher high and a lower low than yesterday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, December 10, 2020 Do you remember the days We built these paper mountains?   Facts: +0.54%, Volume lower, Closing range: 88%, Body: 73% Good: Held support near 12,250, closed near high Bad: Gap down at open, then choppy intraday Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick green body, high closing range Advance/Decline: 1.59, three advancing to two declining Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.07%) was top. Industrials (XLI -0.95%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher   The Nasdaq opened the day with a gap down after disappointing employment data released in the morning. The index tested the support area around 12,250, but refused to go lower. The bulls ruled the morning as the index rose to the intraday high and then going back and forth in a choppy afternoon but closing near the high. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.54% gain on lower volume. The closing range was 88% with a 73% body. There were three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, December 11, 2020 Take it till life runs out   Facts: -0.23%, Volume lower, Closing range: 96%, Body: 30% Good: Held support near 12,250 Bad: Inside day not indicating direction Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Inside day, small body over longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.69, three declining to every two advancing Sectors: Communications (XLC +0.60%) was top. Energy (XLE -1.15%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways   The Nasdaq closed the week with an inside day that included an intraday bounce of the 12,250 support area. That inside day could mean a continuation of the downward bearish movement. However, balance that with a high closing range and the mid-day reversal which could be a bullish sign. The direction changes came as mixed economic news was shared. Producer Purchasing Index was lower than expected, released before market open. Consumer Confidence was higher than expected, released mid-morning. Ultimately it was a stop-gap bill in congress to prevent government shutdown that brought the index off its lows to close with a 93% closing range and a 30% body over a long lower wick. The Nasdaq finished the day with a -0.23% loss, a much smaller loss than the 1% at mid-session. There were almost three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The Nasdaq lost -0.69% in a volatile week that had new all-time highs at the top and tested support areas at the bottom. The weekly candle has a closing range of 42% under a 21% red body. The candle's long upper wick and long lower wick along with the smaller body represent a week of indecision. And that's exactly what it felt like. There was one broad market rally day, and all the others were either lopsided gains for the Nasdaq or rotations among sectors. Volume for the week was lower than last week, but higher than average. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.96% for the week and the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) pulled back -0.57%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the only index to finish the week with gains, climbing +1.02%. That is the sixth week in a row that the small-cap index outperformed the other major indexes. The week began with a new all-time high. However, Monday's rally was not shared by the other indexes, sending mixed signals on what would happen next. What happened on Tuesday was a big rally day where all indexes gained for the day, likely on the positive news that UK had administered its first vaccine dose. That would be short-lived as Wednesday brought a sell-off that resulted in the Nasdaq losing almost 2%. The next two days continued the down trend with lower highs and another losing day on Friday. Stepping back and looking at the weekly chart, the Nasdaq still has a higher high and a higher low. The indecisive candle is still in an uptrend which could confirm the rally continuation next week. However, this is the lowest closing range in six weeks, potentially a turning point. Despite starting the week in last place, Energy (XLE) rose to the top of the sector list starting from Tuesday as the first vaccine doses were made available in the UK. That positive vaccine news boosted the sector that is likely to benefit from the increased activity in travel and leisure sectors. Communications (XLC) led at the beginning of the week, but could not keep up with Energy and finished the week in second. Utilities (XLU) also had moments of leadership on Monday and Tuesday. The sector is a defensive play in equities and an alternative to moving money into other safe havens such as bonds. Real Estate (XLRE) was the worst performing sector for the week. Technology (XLK) that heavily impacts market performance, underperformed the S&P 500 this week. Communications (XLC) led for two days, before being overtaken by the top three and ending the week in fourth place. Utilities (XLU) was the loser of the week. The defensive play was not needed by investors who seemed optimistic about vaccines, stimulus talks and oil agreements. That was enough optimism to ignore the unemployment data signaling trouble for the economy. US Treasury Bond Yields were lower for the week as investors bought up the safe haven bonds among volatility in the equity market. The spreads between long term and short term bonds tightened, although the US10Y-US02Y spread widened on Friday. The bond buying did give some support to the US Dollar. The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.30% for the week. That follows a three week downtrend that brought the dollar to its lowest value since April 2018. Corporate bond yields rose for the week while short term treasury bonds yield lowered. This wider spread between the two bonds shows a bit nervousness in US corporations and the economic recovery. The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at a much more comfortable level of 0.737, showing a bit less bullish optimism among investors. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment which typically proceeds a pullback in the market. The indicator was at 0.458 just before the September correction and it was at 0.489 just before the short October correction. Silver (SILVER) was down -1.05% for the week while Gold (GOLD) remained flat at -0.08% for the week. Crude Oil was up +0.94% as demand continues to increase from summer lows. Timber (WOOD) is still in strong demand gaining another +3.11%. Copper (COPPER!1) continued to climb with a +0.86% gain while Aluminum (ALI1!) dropped -1.25%. Only Apple (AAPL) was able to finish the week with a gain, albeit just a slight increase over open. The doji style candle is entirely above the 10w MA which is a good sign for continuation of the upwards trend. Alphabet (GOOGL) traded well above its 10w MA but the week brings a lower high and lower low. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) closed the week below their 10w MA. The week had two big IPOs. The first was DoorDash (DASH) which traded with a 20% range on Wednesday's opening day and following with two days of an 8% range. AirBnB (ABNB) was the second big IPO, opening on Thursday with a 15% swing in the first 30 minutes. That action settled down to finish the week with a loss. Greenwich Lifesciences (GLSI) traded up 2868% on Wednesday before settling at around a 930% gain by close. The company disclosed a 100% survival rate in trials of a breast cancer treatment. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead The week will begin with the OPEC monthly report on Monday. On Wednesday, Retail Sales data for November will be released. The FOMC will release several reports and the Fed will announce any decision on Interest Rate changes. The interest rates are expected to remain the same. Thursday will bring Building Permits data for November. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims will also be released. Thursday will also bring earnings announcements from Rite Aid (RAD), Fedex (FDX) and Jabil (JBL). Nike (NKE) will announce earnings on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side For the bullish side, take a look at the weekly chart. The week ended with a higher high and a lower low. That's the most apparent sign that we are still in an uptrend, despite a few choppy days this week. Volume was a little lower but higher than recent weekly averages. As I write this, the Pfizer vaccine has been approved for the US and we should start to see the first doses made available in a few days. Each time we have vaccine news, there is a boost to the markets on improving confidence in the economic recovery. The US markets have lagged behind other foreign markets that are seen as recovering sooner from the pandemic. The availability of the vaccine in the US, could change that expectation. The Put/Call ratio finally settled back into a reasonable range just above 0.7. Other contrarian indexes such at the CNN Fear & Greed index are starting to ease back to normal levels. The weeks before Christmas historically do well in the markets. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Congress went another week with mixed news on further stimulus and it now looks like it will be delayed until the new year. The markets soared on news that a bipartisan group of senators agreed to compromise on stimulus, but those hopes were quickly smashed by a refusal from Mitch McConnell to accept included terms. Optimism for a stimulus continued to wane as the week went on. Short term treasury bond yields have been declining and the spread between long term and short term yields is widening. The buy up of short term bonds as well as the sale of corporate bonds shows some nervousness among investors in equity markets. The nervousness resulted in a week of back-and-forth prices, rotations among industry sectors and lopsided rallies among the indexes. That volatility could also be seen in the VIX as it reversed from a downward trend that started six weeks ago. The VIX is at the same level it was the week of December 10, 2018 right before another decline into Christmas. The Fed is not expected to change interest rates on Thursday. However, there is talk that short-term inflation is on the rise. If the fed were to decide to control that with an interest rate hike, it would surprise the markets and have at least a short-term negative impact on equities. The weeks before Christmas historically do well in the markets, except when they don't. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch There are several key levels in the Nasdaq to keep an eye out for and respond accordingly. First on the positive side: The high of Friday at 12,383.50 will be the first test. Let's see if the index can put in a new daily high to start the week. It was a good sign when the index passed 12,500 last week, but it is now below that line again. That could be an area of resistance moving back upward. The all-time high is at 12,607.14. A new all-time high signals the continuing bullish rally. The next round-number resistance could come at 13,000. Round-number resistance is caused by traders’ tendency to put in sell orders at round numbers. On the downside, there are several key levels to raise caution flags: The support area of 12,250 proved itself this week. Hopefully, that area will hold the index above that price level. The 21d EMA is at 12,169.43. The index has closed above this moving average line for the last 29 trading days. November support area is at 12,000 and a round-number point. A move below this line would raise flags for investors. The 50d MA is at 11,758.18. The low of Thursday, Nov 4 is at 11,394.21. There is a gap to fill below that line. September Support line is at 11,300. Dropping to this level would be a sure sign of correction. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We are on the march to the Christmas holiday. Historically, this is one of the best times of the year to be in the market. Except two years ago in December 2018, when the market took a final dive to bottom out on Christmas eve day and then start a new rally the day after Christmas. The vaccines in the US will start to become available next week and a massive coordination effort is under way to make sure it gets to the right people as soon as possible. Progress with that deployment should provide confidence to investors. Caution and risk management is a must. But let's hope for a clear uptrend early in the week and momentum through the holidays. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 12/11Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (30d), 12/7 (5d), the 12/9 pivot (3d) and today 12/11 (1d).   If you have ideas to make the daily update better, please let me know in the comments.   I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time.   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, December 11, 2020 Take it till life runs out   Facts: -0.23%, Volume lower, Closing range: 96%, Body: 30% Good: Held support near 12,250 Bad: Inside day not indicating direction Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Inside day, small body over longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.69, three declining to every two advancing Sectors: Communications (XLC +0.60%) was top. Energy (XLE -1.15%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview   The Nasdaq closed the week with an inside day that included an intraday bounce of the 12,250 support area. That inside day could mean a continuation of the downward bearish movement. However, balance that with a high closing range and the mid-day reversal which could be a bullish sign. The direction changes came as mixed economic news was shared. Producer Purchasing Index was lower than expected, released before market open. Consumer Confidence was higher than expected, released mid-morning. Ultimately it was a stop-gap bill in congress to prevent government shutdown that brought the index off its lows to close with a 93% closing range and a 30% body over a long lower wick. The Nasdaq finished the day with a -0.23% loss, a much smaller loss than the 1% at mid-session. There were almost three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks.   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI +0.16%) was the only major index to finish the day with gains. The S&P 500 (SPX -0.13%) and the Russell 2000 (RUT -0.57%) had losses for the day. The S&P 500 had a lower high and lower low, while the Dow Jones Industrial finished the week with an outside day. Communications (XLC +0.60%) was the top sector. Industrials (XLI +0.24%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.22%) were the next two best performing. Energy (XLE -1.15%) and Financials (XLF -1.01%) were the worst performing of the day.   The VIX volatility index gained +3.51%. At the mid-day high it was up 11.76%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Indicators   US 30y and 10y treasury bond yields rose while the 2y yield sharply dropped as investors bought up the short-term bonds. The spread between the 30y and 10y yields remained the same, while the spread between 10y and 2y yields widened. The yield on corporate bonds rose for the day while short term treasury bond yields fell, tightening the spread between the two as investors exchange riskier corporate bonds for safe-haven treasury bonds.     The US dollar (DXY +0.18%) rose for the day. Silver (SILVER -0.10%) and Gold (GOLD -0.08%) dropped slightly today. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1! -1.09%) dropped back from yesterday's gain. Timber (WOOD +0.149%) gained for the day. Copper (COPPER1! -0.73%) and Aluminum (ALI1! +-1.79%) lost ground for the day.     The put/call ratio rose to 0.737, a reversal in recent overly bullish sentiment. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market.   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders   Three of the four biggest mega-caps had gains for the day. Microsoft (MSFT +1.30%) and Amazon (+0.48%) both gained but still closed below their 21d EMA and 50d MA key moving averages. Alphabet (GOOGL +0.4%) also rose for the day and is trading right at its 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL -0.67%) was the only of the four to have a loss. AAPL is trading above the key moving averages, but showed a bearish harami candle showing some indecision with investors.   Other mega-caps that had gains include Walt Disney (DIS +13.59%) that had huge gains after announcing new plans and price increases for its streaming service. Toyota Motor Corp (TM +5.54%) rose on news that they'll introduce an electric vehicle to their lineup. Tesla (TSLA -2.72%) was down for the day. Facebook (FB -1.29%) also continued losses after the US government announced lawsuits to break-up the company earlier in the week. Growth stocks were at the extremes on Friday. Solar Edge (SEDG +6.59%), CHWY (CHWY +9.02%), MongoDB (MDB +6.56%), and ETSY (ETSY +2.86%) were among the big gainers. Lululemon (LULU -6.71%) was down, despite a great earnings release the night before. Restoration Hardware (RH -5.29%), Snowflake (SNOW -5.18%) and RIOT (RIOT -7.28%) were among other losers. This week's big IPOs AirBnb (ABNB -3.77%) and DoorDash (DASH -5.91%) also lost on the day. Moderna (MRNA +0.80%) is up another 3% after hours on an announcement that the US government will double its purchase of the company's vaccine doses.   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead   OPEC will release its monthly report on Monday. Otherwise, there is not much economic news coming for Monday.   There are no notable earnings announcements on Monday for the daily market update.   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a +2.16% which would bring the index back to new all-time highs. The one-day trend line is pointing to a sideways move that would result in a -0.08% loss. The five-day trend and the trend from the 12/9 pivot are pointing to a -1.04% which would retest the 12,250 support area. So far that area has held-up well and is just above the 21d EMA. The QQQ ETF successfully tested its own 21d EMA the last two days. If the index passes through the 12,250 support area and the 21d EMA, then the next support area is the November support around 12,000. A drop tomorrow beyond that point should raise the alarm.   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up   The last several days have all offered a very different character to the market. Tuesday seemed everything was going well, another new all-time high with a very bullish candle. However, the rally day wasn't shared by the other major indexes. Wednesday brought a bearish drop of almost 2% and it seemed that would continue into Thursday. Thursday turned out to be very bullish for growth stocks, but the rally attempt wasn't shared broadly. We end the week on Friday with a back-and-forth session that left the Nasdaq with an indecisive inside day. Some signals show bullish and some show bearish. It is finally time to get some rest this weekend from a long week, refresh mentally and be ready to respond to whatever comes on Monday. Stay healthy and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 12/10Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (29d), 12/4 (5d), the 12/9 pivot (2d) and today 12/10 (1d).   If you have ideas to make the daily update better, please let me know in the comments.   I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time.   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, December 10, 2020 Do you remember the days We built these paper mountains?   Facts: +0.54%, Volume lower, Closing range: 88%, Body: 73% Good: Held support near 12,250, closed near high Bad: Gap down at open, then choppy intraday Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick green body, high closing range Advance/Decline: 1.59, three advancing to two declining Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.07%) was top. Industrials (XLI -0.95%) was bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview   The Nasdaq opened the day with a gap down after disappointing employment data released in the morning. The index tested the support area around 12,250, but refused to go lower. The bulls ruled the morning as the index rose to the intraday high and then going back and forth in a choppy afternoon but closing near the high. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.54% gain on lower volume. The closing range was 88% with a 73% body. There were three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks.   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX -0.13%) and Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI -0.23%) declined for the day. The Russell 2000 (RUT +1.08%) outperformed the other indexes and finished the day with a gain.   Energy (XLE +3.07%) led the day. Financials (XLF +0.17%), Technology (XLK +0.14%) and Communications (XLC +0.06%) were the only other sectors with gains. Industrials (XLI -0.95%) was the worst performing sector of the day.   The VIX volatility index gained +1.12%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Indicators     US30Y and US10Y bond yields dropped for the day and spreads widened slightly between US10Y and US02Y bonds. The US02Y continues the downward trend from a 11/12 pivot.   Corporate Bond yields fell for the day. The spread tightened slightly between corporate and short-term treasury bonds.     The US dollar (DXY -0.29%) dropped for the day. Silver (SILVER +0.04%) and Gold (GOLD -0.15%) were relatively even compared to the previous days drop. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1! +2.96%) spiked as vaccines began rolling out globally. Timber (WOOD +0.29%) gained for the day. Copper (COPPER1! +1.94%) and Aluminum (ALI1! +0.81%) also had gains.     The put/call ratio dropped back to 0.570 showing a little more bullish optimism than yesterday. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market.   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders   Apple (AAPL +1.2%) was the only of the four biggest mega-caps to end the day with gains. Amazon (AMZN -0.09%) and Microsoft (MSFT -0.6%) had a second day of losses and closed below the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Alphabet (GOOGL -0.57%) continues to slide from 12/3 high and closed right at its 21d EMA.     Not a lot of mega-caps had gains for the day. Tesla (TSLA +3.74%), PayPal (PYPL +2.15%) and Netflix (NFLX +1.52%) were among the top mega-cap gainers. AT&T (T -2.45%) pulled back after two days of big gains. Many growth stocks reversed yesterday's losses. Cloudflare (NET +8.72%) was a top performer. Twitter (TWTR +8.43%) possibly benefited from news the US government would sue to break up Facebook (FB -0.29%). Restoration Hardware (RH -3.20%) lost on the day after beating expectations in their earnings release. Adobe (ADBE -1.42%) was down after hours despite beating expectations and providing a stronger-than-expected outlook.  It was a similar story for Lululemon (LULU +1.52%), Broadcom (AVGO -1.48%), Oracle (ORCL -0.42%), Costco (COST -0.40%).   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead   Tomorrow will bring Producer Price Index data for November before the market opens. New consumer sentiment data will be released in the morning after the market opens.   There are no notable earnings announcements for the daily market update.   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance   I've added a trend line from yesterday's high to mark a pivot. The trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a +1.96% which would bring the index back to new all-time highs. The five-day trend and one-day trend are pointing to a sideways move for a +0.17% gain. The two day trend line from the 12/9 pivot is pointing to a -1.36% loss which would put the index right at the 12,250 support area that has developed in December. The index would still be above the 21d EMA at that point.   If the index passes through the 21d EMA, then the next support area is the November support around 12,000. A drop tomorrow beyond that point should raise the alarm.   -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up   If you are a growth investor, it sure did feel like a bullish reversal today, after yesterday's 2% pull back on the Nasdaq. There are some things to keep in mind. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial both dropped for the day, showing some lopsided focus to the one day rally. With the exception of Apple, the biggest mega-caps did not participate in the rally and are trading below key moving average lines. Good growth stocks releasing earnings that beat expectations are selling off on the news. Smart investors selling into strength to protect profits. The Two-Year Treasury bond yield has been sliding since a mid-November pivot and is approaching early September levels. Although, yesterday's pullback helped elevate the put/call ratio, it dropped back today and continues to show overlay bullish outlook by investors, something that can be dangerous. SQQQ volume is elevated as investors hedge portfolios and/or expect a drop in prices. If yesterday shook you out of some positions, be cautious as you move back in as we may see more volatility heading into the holidays. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 12/9Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (28d), 12/3 (5d), and today 12/9 (1d). If you have ideas to make the daily update better, please let me know in the comments. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, December 9, 2020 Long road to ruin there in your eyes Facts: -1.94%, Volume higher, Closing range: 15%, Body: 80% Good: Support above 12,300 Bad: Sold off with little to no upward reversals Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Bearish outside reversal day Advance/Decline: 0.54, two decliners for every advancer Sectors: Energy (XLE +0.22%) and Industrials (XLI +0.22%) were top sectors. Communications (XLC -1.19%) and Technology (XLK -1.92%) were the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview 191 stocks on the Nasdaq managed to set a new high before the index took a downward spiral that never came back. The index closed sharply down after progress stalled in congress to pass a new stimulus bill. By the end of the day there were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Nasdaq finished with a -1.94% loss on higher volume. The closing range of 15% and 80% red body define a bearish outside reversal candle with a higher high and a lower low than yesterday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX -0.79%), Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI -0.35%) and Russell 2000 (RUT -0.82%) also reversed lower from yesterdays gains. They all outperformed the Nasdaq, with the Dow Jones Industrial having the smallest loss. Energy (XLE +0.22%) and Industrials (XLI +0.22%) were the leading sectors of the day. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.10%) led mid-morning before losing ground. Communications (XLC -1.19%) was just behind Energy at the beginning of the day but finished second to last, ahead of Technology (XLK -1.92%). The VIX volatility index gained +7.69%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Indicators US30Y and US10Y bond yields rose for the day while spreads between long term and short term bonds stayed about even. Corporate Bond yields also rose for the day. The spread widened a bit between corporate bonds and short-term treasury bonds as investors became a little more nervous about economic recovery. The US dollar (DXY +0.15%) rose for the day. It is reversing off a low not seen since April 2018. Silver (SILVER -2.43%) and Gold (GOLD -1.63%) dropped back from a recent high. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1! +0.18%) ticked up a bit despite Crude Oil Inventories data being higher than expected. Timber (WOOD +1.33%) gained for the day. Copper (COPPER1! +0.45%) and Aluminum (ALI1! +2.33%) reversed from yesterday’s losses. The put/call ratio rose to 0.644 showing less optimism from investors. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The big four mega-caps all had losses for the day. Apple (AAPL -2.09%) and Alphabet (GOOGL -1.85%) are still trading above key moving average lines. Microsoft (MSFT -1.95%) and Amazon (AMZN -2.3%) closed below their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Most other mega-caps were down for the day. AT&T (T +2.11%) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ +1.02%) were able to complete a second day of gains. Tesla (TSLA -6.99%) and Netflix (NFLX -3.72%) fell back from recent gains. Hardest hit were the growth stocks. Moderna (MRNA -7.81%), Cloudflare (NET -7.47%), Okta (OKTA -7.47%) and Fastly (FSLY -6.99%) were among the biggest losers. PagerDuty (PD +0.49%) was one of the few growth stocks I watch that had a gain. Restoration Hardware (RH -0.89%) is up 1% after hours after beating expectations on earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Core Consumer Price Index data for November will be released tomorrow before the market opens. Initial Jobless Claims will also be released before the market opens. Lululemon Athletica (LULU -2.02%), Broadcom (AVGO -1.70%), Oracle (ORCL +1.19%), and Costco (COST -0.88%) are among companies reporting earnings after hours. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The trend lines diverged today for the first time in a few weeks. The long-term trend from the 10/30 bottom continues to point to new all-time highs with a gain of +2.36%. The five-day trend flattened a bit but still points to a +1.53% gain. The one-day trend line is pointing to another -3.12% decline. That trend line is derived from the steep slope of today’s sell-off. Likely the index will pause before passing through three support areas. The first area is around 12,250-12,300. Next, expect the index to get some support at the 21d EMA. If not, then the third support area is the November support around 12,000. A drop tomorrow beyond that point should raise the alarm. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The day started with several breakouts in both large, mid, and small-cap stocks. The Nasdaq had 191 stocks hit new highs before reversing and going lower. Many of the breakouts failed and the prices are back below the day’s open. When so many breakouts fail, there may be something wrong. The Nasdaq had a sharp pull-back from a new all-time high. It could bounce back tomorrow, or it could continue to pull back a bit until it finds an area of support. If support areas break down, that could mean a deeper and/or longer correction. Have a plan for raising cash and getting to the sideline or using a hedge strategy to protect your portfolio. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 12/8Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (27d), 12/2 (5d), and today 12/8 (1d). If you have ideas to make the daily update better, please let me know in the comments. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, December 8, 2020 If anything could ever be this good again Facts: +0.50%, Volume higher, Closing range: 92%, Body: 56% Good: Close higher on volume, reversing morning lows Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Bullish outside day with longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 1.77, more than three advancers for every two decliners Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.49%) and Health Services (XLV +0.76%) were top sectors. Utilities (XLU -0.30%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.46%) were the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview After sending some mixed signals on Monday, the market reconfirmed the current bullish rally on Tuesday. The Nasdaq closed at an all time high, and the Russell 2000 continued its rally after a short pause. There was more breadth in the market with more than three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks on the Nasdaq and 195 stocks making new highs. The index finished the day with a +0.50% on higher volume. The outside day is marked by a higher high and lower low than Monday and is bullish with the 92% closing range and large 56% body over a long lower wick. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors All major indexes closed the day higher with the Russell 2000 (RUT +1.40%) returning to the top of the list. The S&P 500 (SPX +0.28%) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI +0.35%) shook off potential reversal patterns yesterday to produce a bullish gain today. Energy (XLE +1.49%) was the leading sector of the day. Health (XLV +0.76%) came in second and just ahead of four other sectors also with positive gains. Real Estate (XLRE -0.46%) was the worst performing sector. Utilities (XLU -0.30%) lost on the day as investors exited the defensive play. The VIX volatility index dropped -2.91%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Indicators US30Y and US10Y bond yields dropped for another day and the spreads between long term and short-term bonds tightened. Corporate Bond yields also rose another day while short term treasury bond yields dropped. The tightening spread between the two bond types shows a little hesitation of investors but is not yet significant. The US dollar (DXY +0.14%) rose for the day. It is reversing off a low not seen since April 2018. Silver (SILVER +0.37%) and Gold (GOLD +0.39%) are continuing to climb from early December pivots. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1! -1.61%) dropped after Crude Oil Stock numbers came in higher than expected signaling lower demand. Timber (WOOD +1.36%) gained for the day. Copper (COPPER1! -0.43%) continued to pull back from recent highs. Aluminum (ALI1! -1.29%) is forming a downward trend, pivoting off last week’s high. The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.486 but is still showing overly bullish sentiment. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Three of the four biggest mega-caps had gains for the day with Microsoft (MSFT +0.8%) and Amazon (AMZN +0.61%) outperforming the index for the first time in several sessions. Apple (AAPL +0.51%) also outperformed but is showing some indecision in the days result. Alphabet (GOOGL -0.31%) was the only one of the four that lost for the day and is trending down from a 12/3 reversal day. Amazon closed above its 21d EMA but is still trading below its 50d EMA. Plenty of mega-caps closed the day with gains. AT&T (T +3.95%) was a top performer followed by Pfizer (PFE +3.18%). Johnson & Johnson (JNJ +1.73%) is testing some upper resistance. Tesla (TSLA +1.27%) continues its climb toward inclusion in the S&P 500 on 12/21. Fastly (FSLY +14.69%) led popular growth stocks with a huge gain and three days of whipsaw action. Moderna (MRNA +6.48%), Draft Kings (DKNG +6.09%) and ETSY (ETSY +4.49%) were also top performers on a day that many growth stocks did well. Sumo Holdings (SUMO +18.05%) had a huge gain after a big loss the day before upon surprising investors with a mid-day earnings report. The earnings report beat expectations but spooked investors when it was released without warning in the middle of the day. Retail stock Chewy (CHWY +5.84%) dipped -1.44% after hours even after beating expectations on revenue and earnings. MongoDb (MDB +0.90%) also beat expectations but is down -3.14% after hours. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead JOLT Job Openings data will be released tomorrow which will provide an update on recovering businesses. More job openings could mean businesses are coming back online after being stymied by pandemic lock downs. That would have a positive impact on the US Dollar. Crude Oil Inventories data will also be released and may disappoint as did the inventory information released today by the API and the dismal short-term energy outlook. Mortgage data and Wholesale Inventories will also be released providing some clues on consumer confidence and retail heading into the holidays. Adobe (ADBE +0.62%), Restoration Hardware (RH +0.69%) and Campbell Soup (CB +0.04%) are notable companies releasing earnings after market close tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The one-day trend line points to a gain of +1.07% tomorrow. The five-day trend line and longer trend line from the 10/30 bottom are pointing to a more modest gain of +0.12%. Both outcomes would continue the streak of all-time highs. After six days of gains, it would not be a surprise to see a small pullback. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market continues its bullish climb, making new all-time highs almost every day for the past week. It seems to shrug off any bad news, focusing optimism on the coming vaccines and the possibility of a new stimulus. Although the gains have been consistent, that have not been gains so huge to extend the index way above support areas. The key moving average lines are still within view. A pause or pullback would not be a surprise, but also does not seem necessary just yet. On the other hand, the overly bullish optimism shown in the put/call ratio remains a concern. This level of optimism usually proceeds a sharp pullback in the market. There are some indications that the optimism is cooling. The downward movement in treasury bonds and loosening spread between corporate and short-term treasury bonds show a small amount of caution in the market. And the CNN Fear & Greed index has pulled back from the high greed levels in recent days. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 12/7Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (26d), 12/1 (5d), and today 12/7 (1d). If you have ideas to make the daily update better, please let me know in the comments. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, December 7, 2020 Run for your life with me Facts: +0.45%, Volume lower, Closing range: 78%, Body: 78% Good: Higher high, higher low, closing range Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: No lower wick, small upper wick, green body Advance/Decline: 0.91, slightly more declining stocks then advancing stocks Sectors: Communications (XLC +0.63%) and Utilities (XLU +0.56%) were the leading sectors. Energy (XLE -2.34%) was the worst performing sector. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was a good start to the week for the Nasdaq. The only problem, it was only the Nasdaq. The other major indexes had decidedly different days while the Nasdaq made a new all-time high. The index ended the day with a +0.45% gain on lower volume. The closing range of 78% and green body of 78% represent a day with no lower wick where the morning open was the low and the index never revisited that spot. There were two pullbacks in the afternoon that brought the index to the middle of the range, but both were bought back. The second pull back around 3:30p followed Consumer Credit data that was half of expectation. There were slightly more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors Results were not as good for the other major indexes. The S&P 500 (SPX -0.19%), Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI -0.49%), and the Russell 2000 (RUT -0.06%) all closed the day with losses. The S&P 500 chart shows a bearish harami candle. The Dow Jones Industrial shows a bearish reversal that opened at an all-time high but closed below the mid-range of the previous day. The Russell 2000 candle is an indecisive spinning top. Although the expectation for the Nasdaq chart would be sideways or higher, the rest of the indexes are not providing such a positive outlook. Communications (XLC +0.63%) and Technology (XLK +0.29%) were in the top three sectors. The Nasdaq has many stocks who are in these sectors. The surprise sector in the top three is Utilities (XLU +0.56%), a defensive play for investors, showing a bit of nervousness. Utilities peaked in the morning as the top sector but fell back to second place behind Communications. Energy (XLE -2.34%) is back at the bottom of the sector list on heightened concerns around the pandemic and new lockdowns in California. The VIX volatility index rose by +2.45% and broke through the upper line of a downward channel for the past three weeks. That is a trend to watch closely as an indicator of investor nervousness. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Indicators US30Y and US10Y bond yields dropped for the day and the spreads between long term and short-term bonds tightened. Yields rise when investors sell bonds and yields lower when investors buy bonds. The yields are still within an upward channel, but it is something to watch this week. Corporate Bond yields rose slightly for the day while short term treasury bond yields dropped. The tightening spread between the two bond types shows a little hesitation of investors but is not significant yet. The US dollar (DXY +0.10%) rose for the day. It is reversing off a low not seen since April 2018. Silver (SILVER +1.11%) and Gold (GOLD +0.07%) are continuing to climb from early December pivots. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1! +0.56%) is up despite a lowered outlook for Energy on pandemic worries. Timber (WOOD -0.04%) was about even on the day. Copper (COPPER1! -0.34%) had its first decline after a seven-day run. Aluminum (ALI1! -1.26%) is forming a downward trend, pivoting off last week’s high. The put/call ratio dropped to 0.480, still showing overly bullish sentiment. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four big mega-caps, only Apple (AAPL +1.23%) closed the day with gains, outperforming the Nasdaq. Microsoft (MSFT -0.03%) dipped below the key moving average lines, the 21d EMA and the 50d MA. Amazon (AMZN -0.14%) closed below the two support/resistance lines. Alphabet (GOOGL -0.37%) closed with a loss but is still trading well above the moving average lines. Just over half of mega-caps closed the day with losses. Tesla (TSLA +7.13%) closed at a new all-time high after a short pullback. Netflix (NFLX +3.51%) finally broke above its 50d MA on higher volume. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM +2.56%) and Pfizer (PFE +2.26%) round out the top four mega-cap gains for the day. Intel (INTC -3.43%) pivoted down after nine consecutive days of gains. If was a good day for growth stocks. Cloudflare (NET +5.96%), NIO (NIO +4.81%), Moderna (MRNA +4.59%) and Pinterest (PINS +4.46%) were some of the leading gainers for the day. Fastly (FSLY -3.65%) returned to its 50d MA after acquisition rumors yesterday sent the stock on a round trip. Coupa Software (COUP +1.82%) is up 4.34% post-market upon beating expectations on earnings. Sumo Logic (SUMO -18.10%) surprised investors by releasing its first earnings report mid-day. The stock tumbled but is now up 5% after hours. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock numbers will be released tomorrow. In addition, Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs data for Q3 will be released. Retail stock Chewy (CHWY -0.21%) will announce earnings tomorrow after market close. MongoDb (MDB +1.02%) will be one of the few tech stocks to announce earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line and longer trend line from the 10/30 bottom are pointing to a +0.23% gain. The one-day trend line points to a small loss of 0.29%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Just looking at the Nasdaq chart, it looks like we had a very bullish Monday. But looking at the limited breadth of gainers/losers, the mix of Utilities as a defensive play and the slight drop in treasury bond yields, it’s not a surprise to see a much more bearish look on the other major index charts. And yet, the contrarian indicator put/call ratio moved even lower as investors seem bullish, possibly overly bullish to be good. Any bad news on the pandemic, vaccines or stimulus could be a catalyst for a pullback or even correction. Watch your favorite stocks for signs of trouble, failed breakouts, or unexpected reversals off uptrends. Keep engaged as a stimulus could send the market to new heights but do have a plan if the market pulls back significantly. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ/GDX, XLE, KRE, SLV, IWM/RUTEARNINGS: No options liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week that meet my criteria for a volatility contraction play, although ORCL (24/31) and WORK (2/33) both announce and could be played in some other way. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE THE JANUARY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: GDXJ (14/41/12.1%) XLE (25/41/10.4%) KRE (23/40/10.6%) SLV (28/41/10.2%) GDX (15/38/10.2%) EWZ (15/39/10.0%) BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE THE JANUARY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: IWM (23/28/7.1%) QQQ (20/27/6.3%) DIA (15/21/5.2%) SPY (12/20/4.8%) EFA (17/24/4.4%) Pictured here is a RUT January 22nd 1655/1705 short put vertical with the short option leg camped out at the 16 delta. Markets are showing wide in the off hours, but look to get at least 10% of the width of the spread out of any play, with the preference being to put something on in a down day with the accompanying rise in volatility and expansion of the "probability cone." A smaller alternative would naturally be in IWM, where I'd look to get at least .50 out of January 22nd 162.5/167.5 5-wide. For those who like to swim naked, the IWM January 22nd 162.5 (15 delta) and was paying 1.91 as of Friday close (1.15% ROC at max as a function of notional risk; 8.93% annualized). * * * On the IRA/retirement account front, I'll be looking to programmatically deploy buying power in broad market over medium to long-term time frames over the next several weeks and then turn to focusing on shorter term plays, so you're likely to see some apparently oddball things in my ideas feed that won't make a ton of sense looked at in isolation and won't be for everybody not only due to buying power effect, but due to duration. I'm using SPY here, but one can certainly do something similar in another of the cheaper (a relative term) exchange-traded funds with high liquidity that will allow you to ladder out in time without giving up too much to lack of liquidity in longer duration. Essentially, it will look like a short put ladder, but with the rungs put on over time in increasing duration in similarly delta'd strikes or in strikes which pay a certain ROC %-age relative to the strike price (e.g., the SPY February 19th 321 short put, paying 3.27; the March 19th 300 short put, paying 3.02; the April 16th 283, paying 2.87, etc.), after which the individual rungs will be separately managed. Although this isn't particularly buying power efficient relative to defined risk spreads, I'm shooting for a setup that is relatively set and forget running into retirement where I don't necessarily have to pop my portfolio open on a daily (or even weekly) basis to manage trades, but can go for fairly lengthy periods of time without having to touch or manage rungs and with modest expectations as to ROC %-age. As a "quasi-cash" option, I'll also continue to deploy idle buying power in things like HYG puts (See Post Below) just that I'm not earning 0% of 0 and where I'm comfortable taking on shares and selling call against. Point in fact, that is probably not a bad stand-alone setup for an extremely conservative investor who isn't keen on taking broad market bullish assumption positions at all-time-highs where a number of people are calling "bubble" week after week. That being said, even this type of setup isn't riskless, as we saw in the March "sell everything" dip. At some point, you will potentially have to take on shares ... .
TVC:RUT
by NaughtyPines
2
Market Week In Review - 11/30/2020 - 12/4/2020The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future. I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I'm including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the original charts for more detail each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 30, 2020 Takin’ everythin’ in my stride Facts: -0.06% lower, Volume higher, Closing range: 79%, Body: 12% Good: Long lower shadow, filled gap but held support at 12,000 Bad: Dip in morning after a new all-time high Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Outside day, 12% red body with long lower wick. Advance/Decline: 0.58, about three declining for every advancing stock Sectors: Technology (XLK +0.67%) and Health (XLV +0.27) were the only gaining sectors. Energy (XLE -5.53%) was the worst preforming. Expectation: Higher Gap filled. 12,000 support held. New Intraday all-time high. The Nasdaq held a volatile session today that started with a new all-time high in the morning, but quickly turned down to fill the gap from Friday’s open and test the 12,000 support area. The good news is that it successfully held the support and closed not too far from the day’s highs. The bad news is it caused a lot of churn in many portfolios as there were 3 declining stocks for every 2 advancing stocks. The index closed with a small -0.06% loss, a sideways move that is not unexpected after last weeks gains. The closing range is 79% with a 12% body and a long lower wick that shows the bears ruled the morning, but the bulls saved the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, December 1, 2020 I was shaking at the knees Facts: +1.28% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 64%, Body: 29% Good: New all-time high, afternoon dip stayed in upper half of range Bad: Gap up with lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Spinning top, longer upper/lower wicks than body. Advance/Decline: 0.88, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Sectors: Communications (XLC +1.83%) and Financials (XLF +1.54%) top. Industrials (XLI -0.25%) only losing sector. Expectation: Sideways The Nasdaq opened the first session of December on a gap up and further strengthened during the morning on news that a bi-partisan group of senators put a fresh stimulus plan back on the table for negotiation. The gains took the index to a new all-time high before reversing course in the afternoon and closing in the middle of the trading range. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.28% gain on lower volume. The closing range was at 64% with a 29% green body. The spinning top candlestick has upper and lower wicks longer than the body, indicating indecision, which could represent some doubt on whether the new stimulus will pass through the political hoops and become real. The gains on the Nasdaq were not broad across the stocks, with more declining stocks than advancing stocks for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, December 2, 2020 Running out of chips, you got no line in an 8-bit town Facts: -0.05% lower, Volume lower, Closing range: 93%, Body: 45% Good: Filled the gap, but closed near the high Bad: Did not reach yesterday's high Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Longer lower wick similar to Mon Advance/Decline: 1.21, more advancing stocks than declining stocks Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.25%) and Financials (XLF +1.10%) were the leading sectors. Materials (XLB -1.28%) was the bottom sector. Expectation: Higher The Nasdaq started the day with a pullback, dropping more than a percentage point off Tuesday’s close. Disappointing employment data added to recent sober outlook on economic recovery. Despite that, by 10am the market made a turn for the better and had steady gains with a little back and forth in the afternoon. The index closed with a small -0.05% loss, but with a closing range of 93% and a green 45% body in the upper half of the candle. The day looks very similar to Monday with a dip in the morning led by the bears, but strength in the afternoon as the bulls came back into the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, December 3, 2020 We ain't no legend, ain't no cause We're just livin' for today Facts: +0.23%, Volume higher, Closing range: 25%, Body: 10% Good: New all-time high, higher low Bad: Closing range below 40%, sell-off before close Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Shooting star, long upper wick, tiny body Advance/Decline: 1.54, more advancing stocks than declining stocks Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.05%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.74%) were the leading sectors. Utilities (XLU -1.04%) was the bottom sector. Expectation: Lower The Nasdaq soared to new highs today after slightly better employment data than expected. The session was already choppy before a selloff in the afternoon caused by disappointing news about supply chain issues impacting the ability to produce vaccines. The result is a shooting star candlestick that prompts a cautious outlook for the next session. The index closed with +0.23% gain on higher volume. The closing range was 23% with a thin body of 10% at the bottom of the candlestick. There were about 3 advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, December 4, 2020 So look at me now I'm just makin' my play Facts: +0.70%, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Body: 74% Good: Close at 100% CR with new all-time high Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: No upper wick, tiny lower wick Advance/Decline: 2.31, more than two advancing stocks for every declining stocks Sectors: Energy (XLE +5.45%) and Materials (XLB +2.02%) were the leading sectors. Utilities (XLU -1.00%) was the only sector with losses. Expectation: Higher What is a great way to end a week? Closing at the top of the trading range with a new all-time high. The Nasdaq opened and climbed throughout the morning, shrugging off bad news on employment numbers and rising on hopes for a completed stimulus bill. There was a small pullback in the afternoon but nothing could hold the index back as it climbed to a new all-time high. The index closed with a +0.70% gain on lower volume. The 100% closing range with a 74% green body represents a very bullish day. It was also broad with two advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The Nasdaq gained 2.15% this week, ending the week with a 100% closing range, meaning the index closed at the high for the week. That high was also a new all-time high. The index is now up 38.17% for the year and up 87.96% from the March bottom. Weekly volume for the Nasdaq was 54% higher than the 10w average. The S&P 500 was up +1.67% for the week and the Dow Jones Industrial was up +1.03%. The Russell 2000 closed with a +2.37% weekly gain. That is the fifth week in a row that the RUT finished with gains. It is also the fifth week in a row to outperform the other major indexes. Small-caps FTW. The week began with a new all-time high on Monday that turned into a sell-off which tested the 12,000 area. The support held and the index recovered, closing the day with a small loss. That test proved to be a character builder for a week that would bring quite a few challenges. The first challenge started on Monday when OPEC leaders seemed to be at an impasse on oil production. That debate would take all week, not resolving until Friday morning. Tuesday brought another rotation that produced a back-and-forth on the sector leader charts throughout the day. Mid-cap growth stocks again took the brunt of the rotation, with more money flowing to small-caps and large-caps. Nonetheless, the index had a good gain on the day. Wednesday brought another morning dip after disappointing employment data showed the recovery may be stalling. However, the index was able to recover for a small loss, following an apparent agreement between the Fed and Treasury that more stimulus was needed. Thursday seemed to be going well. An expected gain in the index was supported by positive Initial Jobless Claims data in the morning. That sent the index to an all-time high, but then Pfizer announced supply chain issues would impact their original plans for scaling vaccine production. The index had a sharp sell-off in the afternoon but somehow was able to close with +0.23% gain. On Friday, the market was ready to shrug off any bad news and finally turn in a big gain to close the week. Ending the week at a 100% closing range with a solid gain, sets up the market for a bullish outlook for Monday. There have been ups and downs on the Nasdaq the last five weeks, but overall, the market has been bullish. Every week has a higher high and a higher low. The average closing range for each week is at 79.8%, meaning even on down weeks, the bulls bought up any sales that the bears created. Not including the short week for Thanksgiving, the past two full weeks have seen an increase in trading volume included with the gains. Energy (XLE) is now in its fourth week of leading the sectors list. It did not look that way at the beginning of the week when it sold off sharply amongst disagreements between OPEC members on future oil production. It rose back to the lead as those talks began getting better on Wednesday and OPEC finally had agreement on Friday. Technology (XLK) and Health Services (XLV) nearly tied for second. They shared the lead on Tuesday. Health Services had a huge boost after the UK announced approval of the Pfizer vaccine. Both Health Services and Technology did not move much after the progress on Tuesday, but it was enough to keep them in position for a solid tying 2nd place ending. Communications (XLC) led for two days, before being overtaken by the top three and ending the week in fourth place. Utilities (XLU) was the loser of the week. The defensive play was not needed by investors who seemed optimistic about vaccines, stimulus talks and oil agreements. That was enough optimism to ignore the unemployment data signaling trouble for the economy. US Treasury Bond Yields rose to their highest point since February with both the US30Y-US10Y and US10Y-US02Y spreads widening. The sell-off of bonds coincides with a drop in the US Dollar and signals two things that could be happening. First, investors are continuing to stay with riskier assets in the US equity markets since bonds will not keep up with expected inflation at the current rates. Second, global investors are moving investments to countries that are more quickly emerging from the pandemic and will have economies recover faster. Many countries in Asia have had the pandemic well under control and aggressive lock downs in European countries have now resulted in better recovery data than the US. The U.S. Dollar (DXY) lost -1.19% for the week, continuing a slide that puts the dollar at its lowest level since April 2018. The weaker dollar is coming as disappointing employment data signals a slower economic recover than originally anticipated. Some weakening of the dollar is expected given current fiscal policy and a weakened dollar can bring eventual inflation that the Fed wants to see. But at some point, other countries will respond with their own fiscal policy to keep currencies from creating unbalanced competition for imports/exports. Corporate Bond yields continue to drop (prices in the chart rise, yields drop) while short term Treasury Bond yields rose. The tightening spread (bottom chart) between the two types of bonds shows optimism on US corporations’ ability to pay back debts and survive economic challenges. The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at the low level of 0.500, showing overly bullish sentiment in the market. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment which typically proceeds a pullback in the market. The indicator was at 0.458 just before the September correction and it was at 0.489 just before the short October correction. Silver (SLIVER) was up +6.63% for the week and Gold (GOLD) was flat at +0.02% for the week. Crude Oil was up +1.28% as demand continues to increase from summer lows. Timber (WOOD) is still in strong demand gaining another +2.54%. Soybean Futures dropped back -2.41% from its highest point since 2016. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) finished the week with gains. Apple broke out of a price consolidation that had progressed over the previous 12 weeks. Alphabet set a new all-time high and is leading the big four mega-caps in performance for the last eight weeks. Microsoft (MSFT) closed the week with a loss but above the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines which were tested three times during the week. Amazon (AMZN) closed the week below the two moving average lines which often act as price support or price resistance areas. Snowflake (SNOW) which had a massive IPO in September, released its first quarterly earnings report on Wednesday after market close. It put in two days of huge gains on Thursday and Friday. In addition to Snowflake, there were other growth stocks with huge gains after earnings this week. Zscaler (ZS) rose 26% after earnings, Crowdstrike (CRWD) was up 14%, DocuSign (DOCU) lifted 11% before falling back to a 5% gain, and Cloudera (CLDR) closed up 7% after earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead The week will start off without much scheduled news on Monday. Tuesday will bring the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook which provides a near-term perspective on energy markets. On Wednesday, Job Openings data will be shared that could shed some more light on employment outlook. Crude Oil Inventories will also be released. Initial Jobless Claims comes on Thursday. Two key price indexes will be released on Thursday and Friday. The consumer price index will provide a view on purchasing trends and inflation. The producer price index will give a better indication of how prices are moving and whether higher prices for producers will be passed on to consumers and result in inflation. Interesting earnings reports for next week include Cintas Corp (CTAS) on Monday. Fedex (FDX) results will be watched, but guidance on Q4 could have some signals in it about how the retail holiday season is going. Carnival (CCL) will report on Friday. Carnival has steadily gained in value since the vaccine was announced. Also, Nike (NKE) will report on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side The most bullish sign for the market right now is the progress of a bi-partisan stimulus bill that seems to be moving along smoothly. The new bill comes after a multiple-day testimony from the Fed’s Jerome Powell to congress. Also, the Treasury’s Steven Mnuchin agreed with Powell’s recommendations, a reversal from the disagreement they had weeks earlier. Continued QE from the Fed and additional stimulus will give a boost to the market. The last five weeks show a strong uptrend with the bulls in control. Any sales in equities were quickly met with purchasing by bulls. Even this past week, Monday and Wednesday began with morning dips that were bought back up by the afternoon. The weekly closing range of the index is high but the gains have not been so super-charged to cause worry. The dollar is continuing to slide. There must be a point where this hurts more than it helps. However, in the short-term a weaker dollar can be in favor for US-based multinational companies. The US Dollar makes exports cheaper and more competitive in international markets. It also increases the value of foreign subsidiary revenues when the revenue is repatriated to the US. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Employment data this week continued to be bleak, a result of more lockdowns and further impact on companies that cannot afford to keep staff on the payroll. This is causing investors to look at the foreign currencies and markets of countries whose economies will more quickly recover from the pandemic. This seems to be isolated to liquidation of US bonds and currencies, but it may extend to the equity markets at some point. The Put/Call ratio is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish sentiment. It typically will be at the extreme bullish side before a market pullback, or the extreme bearish side before a market rally. The indicator was at 0.458 just before the September correction and it was at 0.489 just before the short October correction. The indicator is currently at 0.500. This is also confirmed by the CNN Fear & Greed contrarian indicator which shows an extremely high greed rating of 89. The US Dollar is still well-above lows from 2018 and earlier lows from 2004-2014. However, the continued slide could indicate investors are nervous about the US economy and want to exchange US Dollar investments for other foreign currencies. That bearish sentiment can extend to other US markets. The markets may continue to go up, despite several signals of fragility. But that fragility could come to a test with any bad news over the next few weeks. Bad news could be vaccine delays, new lockdowns, US-China tensions, or the failure of congress to pass a new stimulus bill. Right now, the markets are looking to the future, but the wrong news may bring investors focus quickly to the short-term. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch There are several key levels in the Nasdaq to keep an eye out for and respond accordingly. First on the positive side: Look for the Nasdaq to keep near or above the all-time high set this week of 12,464.23. The next round-number resistance could come at 12,500 or 13,000. Round-number resistance is caused by traders’ tendency to put in sell orders at round numbers. On the downside, there are several key levels to raise caution flags: There was some resistance/support visible in intraday trading around the 12,250 area. That has been noted on the chart. If there is a pullback, hopefully the index stays above that area. The 21d EMA is at 12,006.42. The index has closed above this moving average line for 22 trading days. November support area is at 12,000 and a round-number point. A move back to this line would be a 4% loss and it is critical the index stay above it to keep the rally going. The 50d MA is at 11,625.88. The low of Thursday, Nov 4 is at 11,394.21. There is a gap to fill below that line. September Support line is at 11,300. Dropping to this level would be a sure sign of correction. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market has had a strong five-week rally from the 10/30 bottom, but it has not been an easy journey. The path has been full of rotations often caused by unexpected news around vaccines, politics, or the oil industry. For investors, it’s been a time of searching for new leading sectors and new market leaders that stick. It is not easy to find them. As we get closer to the holidays, the economic factors are beginning to evolve. The US Dollar is sliding at an accelerating rate. We are learning more about president-elect Biden’s pick for key positions in leadership for the economy. That is giving hints to what fiscal policies may be put in place. And we can see the light at the end of the tunnel for the pandemic, but that means companies who performed well during the pandemic are changing guidance for future quarters. Nonetheless, we must follow price or miss out on growth opportunities. It is important to have a risk management plan in place. If the market changes course, know what you will do, whether sell or hold, for each of the investments in your portfolio. Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 12/4Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (25d), 11/30 (5d), and today 12/3 (1d). If you have ideas to make the daily update better, please let me know in the comments. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, December 4, 2020 So look at me now I'm just makin' my play Facts: +0.70%, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Body: 74% Good: Close at 100% CR with new all-time high Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: No upper wick, tiny lower wick Advance/Decline: 2.31, more than two advancing stocks for every declining stocks Sectors: Energy (XLE +5.45%) and Materials (XLB +2.02%) were the leading sectors. Utilities (XLU -1.00%) was the only sector with losses. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview What is a great way to end a week? Closing at the top of the trading range with a new all-time high. The Nasdaq opened and climbed throughout the morning, shrugging off bad news on employment numbers and rising on hopes for a completed stimulus bill. There was a small pullback in the afternoon but nothing could hold the index back as it climbed to a new all-time high. The index closed with a +0.70% gain on lower volume. The 100% closing range with a 74% green body represents a very bullish day. It was also broad with two advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The Russell 2000 (RUT +2.37%) had the best showing of the day while the S&P 500 (+0.88%) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI +0.83%) also had very bullish days. All three of these indexes have candles with 100% body, no upper or lower wicks. Energy (XLE +5.45%) soared on news that OPEC finally came to an agreement on oil production after many days of discussion. Materials (XLB +2.02%) was the next highest performing sector for the day. All sectors except Utilities (XLU -1.00%) had gains for the day. XLU tends to be a defensive play for investors and it did see a slight uptick at the end of the day as money moved into the safer bet for the weekend. The VIX volatility index dropped by -2.30%, reversing a previous three-day climb. Yesterday, it had touched the top line of a downward channel that is nearly three weeks long. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Indicators US30Y and US10Y bond yields rose for the day and the US30Y-US10Y and US10Y-US02Y spreads both widened. Yields rise when investors exit bonds, signaling optimism for riskier markets. Corporate Bond yields dropped while short term treasury bond yields rose for another day. The tightening spread between these bond types show investors are comfortable with corporations being able to survive any economic challenges and pay back debts in the future. The US dollar (DXY +0.13%) rose for the day. It is currently at a level not seen since April 2018. Silver (SILVER +0.65%) rose while Gold (GOLD -0.11%) fell back for the day. Crude Oil Futures (CRUDEOIL1! +0.77%) rose for the day, putting in three consecutive days of gains. Timber (WOOD +1.33%) rose for the day. Aluminum (ALI1! +0.98%) rebounded from yesterdays loss. The put/call ratio remained at 0.500, still showing overly bullish sentiment. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The big four mega-caps underperformed the market for the day with Microsoft (MSFT +0.6%) and Alphabet (+0.11%) ending the day with modest gains. Apple (AAPL -0.56%) and Amazon (AMZN -0.76%) ended the day with losses. Microsoft dropped below its 21d EMA to test the 50d MA once again but recovered and closed above the 21d EMA. Amazon closed below both key moving average lines that typically show support or resistance on price movement. Apple and Google are trading well above these lines. Most mega-caps ended the day with gains. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM +4.25%) was the top performing mega-cap with Mastercard (MA +2.75%) and Visa (+2.23%) following behind in 2nd and 3rd place. Salesforce (CRM +2.21%) is attempting a recovery from losses earlier in the week after their earnings release. Popular growth stocks had a mixed day with top gainers offsetting those with losses. PagerDuty (PD +26.21%) had a huge gain after an earnings beat. Snowflake (SNOW +14.07%) put in another huge gain after yesterday’s 16% gain. DocuSign (DOCU +5.29%) and Cloudera (+7.17%) also had gains for the day after their earnings and outlook topped analyst expectations. Marvell (MRVL -4.70%) disappointed investors with their earnings release. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There are no major economic news events scheduled for Monday. Coupa Software (COUP -0.32%) will announce earnings after market close. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line is pointing to a +070% gain. The one-day trend line and longer trend line from the 10/30 bottom are both pointing to a +0.22% gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market did not seem concerned with the declining pace of new jobs being added to the market, although it was all over the headlines. Perhaps it is the confidence that a stimulus will soon be here to help with unemployment. Or it could be the OPEC agreement and boost to Energy had a momentum impact on the other sectors. Or it could just be the market being the market. Have a great weekend and take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 12/3Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (24d), 11/26 (5d), and today 12/3 (1d). If you have ideas to make the daily update better, please let me know in the comments. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, December 3, 2020 We ain't no legend, ain't no cause We're just livin' for today Facts: +0.23%, Volume higher, Closing range: 25%, Body: 10% Good: New all-time high, higher low Bad: Closing range below 40%, sell-off before close Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Shooting star, long upper wick, tiny body Advance/Decline: 1.54, more advancing stocks than declining stocks Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.05%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.74%) were the leading sectors. Utilities (XLU -1.04%) was the bottom sector. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq soared to new highs today after slightly better employment data than expected. The session was already choppy before a selloff in the afternoon caused by disappointing news about supply chain issues impacting the ability to produce vaccines. The result is a shooting star candlestick that prompts a cautious outlook for the next session. The index closed with +0.23% gain on higher volume. The closing range was 23% with a thin body of 10% at the bottom of the candlestick. There were about 3 advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI +0.29%) and Russell 2000 (RUT +0.58%) both outperformed the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 (SPX -0.06%) ended the day with losses. Energy (XLE +1.05%) was the leading sector with Real Estate (XLRE +0.74%) coming in second. Utilities (XLU -1.04%) was the worst performing sector of the day. Technology (XLK -0.06%) finished even with the S&P 500. The VIX volatility index rose for the third day in a row ending the day with a +0.52% gain. It is still on a downward trending channel. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Indicators US30Y and US10Y bond yields fell for the day while the spreads tightened slightly. Corporate Bond yields dropped while short term treasury bond yields rose for another day. Investors continue moving to riskier assets signaling at least some confidence in the economic recovery. The US dollar (DXY -0.44%) continues to slide. It is currently at a level not seen since April 2018. Silver (SILVER -0.26%) fell back while Gold (GOLD +0.57%) gained for the day. Crude Oil Futures (CRUDEOIL1! +0.77%) rose for a second day. Timber (WOOD +0.27%) rose for the day. Aluminum (ALI1! -1.69%) fell back from recent gains. The put/call ratio dropped to 0.500, and still showing overly bullish sentiment. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Each of the big four mega-caps were showing gains intraday but closed the day with losses. Apple (AAPL -0.11%) and Alphabet (GOOGL -0.17%) are trading well-above their key 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Microsoft (MSFT -0.52%) and Amazon (AMZN -0.52%) ended with equal losses. Microsoft tested its 21d EMA but found support. Amazon tested its 50d MA and found support. Other mega-caps were about split on gainers and losers. Tesla (TSLA +4.32%) was the top mega-cap performer of the day as it approaches the date to be added to the S&P500. Intel (INTC +2.18%) has had a continuous gains over the last eight days. Growth stocks had a great day after several companies exceed expectations on earnings announcements yesterday. Zscaler (ZS +26.45%), CrowdStrike (CRWD +13.64%), ESTC (ESTC +12.59%), and Snowflake (+16.13%) all soared today following their announcements. Splunk (SPLK -23.25%) had the opposite reaction after incurring a loss in quarterly earnings. Cloudera (CLDR +3.39%) and DocuSign (DOCU +6.11%) released earnings after market close and are up 8% and 3% in afterhours trading, respectively. Marvell (MRVL -0.22%) is down 6% after hours on a disappointing outlook in their earnings report. Waddell & Reed (WDR +50.44%) had a huge gain after Macquarie (MIC -0.12%) announced they will acquire the wealth management company. Michaels (MIK +20.29%) retailer rose on strong earnings. Insurance company Lemonade (LMND +20.23%) popped after getting a recommend from Tom Gardner of The Motley Fool. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will bring more employment data including average hourly earnings, nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. Analysts are expecting the change in nonfarm payrolls for November to continue downward but at a lower rate. As a result, the Unemployment Rate would be slightly better. A negative expectation breaker could further slide the US Dollar. Big Lots (BIG +0.76%) will announce earnings before market open. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The five-day trend line is pointing to a +0.93% while the one-day trend line is pointing to a +0.22% gain. The longer trend line from the 10/30 bottom splits the two possibilities. Although the trendlines point to gains, the bearish end to the day today indicates the possibility of a further loss tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The day started with positive news that Initial Jobless Claims were less than expected, a good sign for a recovering economy. That trend needs to be supported by more progress toward vaccine availability to end the pandemic restrictions and lockdowns. When Pfizer announced supply chain issues in producing the vaccine, it had an immediate reaction from the market in late afternoon trading. Now that the market is closed, the news can be absorbed, and we can hope for a reduced concern as the market opens tomorrow. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 12/2Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (23d), 11/25 (5d), and today 12/2 (1d). If you have ideas to make the daily update better, please let me know in the comments. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, December 2, 2020 Running out of chips, you got no line in an 8-bit town Facts: -0.05% lower, Volume lower, Closing range: 93%, Body: 45% Good: Filled the gap, but closed near the high Bad: Did not reach yesterday's high Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Longer lower wick similar to Wed Advance/Decline: 1.21, more advancing stocks than declining stocks Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.25%) and Financials (XLF +1.10%) were the leading sectors. Materials (XLB -1.28%) was the bottom sector. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq started the day with a pullback, dropping more than a percentage point off Tuesday’s close. Disappointing employment data added to recent sober outlook on economic recovery. Despite that, by 10am the market made a turn for the better and had steady gains with a little back and forth in the afternoon. The index closed with a small -0.05% loss, but with a closing range of 93% and a green 45% body in the upper half of the candle. The day looks very similar to Monday with a dip in the morning led by the bears, but strength in the afternoon as the bulls came back into the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors All the major indexes ended the day with gains. The S&P 500 (SPX +1.13%) finished with gains just behind the Nasdaq. The gains for the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI +0.63%) and Russell 2000 (RUT +0.89%) were not as high. The DJI closed in the lower part of the trading range. There was much more focus between the sectors than yesterday with Energy (XLE +3.25%) leading for the day. Financials (XLF +1.10%) and Communications (XLC +0.93%) were the next two sectors. Energy and Financials leading has been the theme of the past few weeks. Materials (XLB -1.28%) was the worst performing sector of the day. Technology (XLK -0.15%) started the morning as the worst sector, but recovered and ended the day just underperforming the SPX index. The VIX volatility index rose slightly by +1.93%. It is still on a downward trending channel. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Indicators US30Y and US10Y bond yields rose for the second day and spreads widened slightly again. Corporate Bond yields dropped for the day while short term treasury bond yields rose. The tightening spread shows investors moving to riskier assets signaling some confidence in the economy. The US dollar (DXY -0.1%) continues to slide. It is currently at a level not seen since April 2018. Silver (SILVER +0.50%) and Gold (GOLD +0.83%) gained for a second day in a row. Crude Oil Futures (CRUDEOIL1! +2.19%) rose on news that a vaccine has been approved in the UK. Timber (WOOD -0.98%) pulled back a bit from yesterday’s gain. Aluminum (ALI1! +0.28%) continued to climb higher. The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.514, but still showing overly bullish optimism. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (APPL +0.29%) and Alphabet (GOOGL +1.65%) both had gains for the day and are showing momentum. Microsoft (MSFT -0.39%) dipped below the 21d EMA to test the 50d MA but closed above both lines with a loss for the day. Amazon (AMZN -0.51%) also tested its 50d MA and then was bought back to close well above the line. Those tests are uncomfortable but show bullish support as investors buy the dip at a commonly used indicator value. Most mega-caps ended the day with gains. Pfizer (PFE +3.53%) got a boost from the vaccine approval in the UK. Walt Disney (DIS +2.79%) continued its recent climb while JP Morgan Chase (JPM +1.92%) and United Health Group (UNH +1.87%) round out the top performing mega-caps for the day. Growth stocks had a mixed day. SNAP (SNAP +6.72%) and NIO (NIO +5.78%) had significant gains. Crowdstrike (CRWD -3.84%) and ZScaler (ZS -3.22%) both dipped heading into earnings but are up 12% after hours with an expectation beat. Snowflake (SNOW -4.24%) disappointed investors with a net loss higher than expected by analysts. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow will bring more employment data with the Initial Jobless Claims. The news is not expected to be great but a surprise in one direction or another would impact the US Dollar. Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index data for November will be released and show whether non-manufacturing sectors are expanding or contracting. Expectation is for a 56. Anything over 50 is expanding. A surprise higher value would be a positive sign. A few notable earnings releases tomorrow include Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI -1.75%), Kroger (KR -2.18%) and Lands End (LE +1.46%), and Dollar General (DG -1.05%) are among retail companies reporting. Cloudera (CLDR -1.15%), DocuSign (DOCU +0.92%), Marvell (MRVL -2.19%) and PagerDuty (PD -1.44%) are some of the tech growth stocks reporting. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance All the trend lines are pointing to positive gains for tomorrow. There is a range from +0.28% for the long-term trend line from the 10/30 bottom to +1.01% for the five-day trend line. There may be a support/resistance area forming at the 12,230 area. It acted as resistance on Friday and Monday, and then was tested as support in this mornings trading. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Yesterday, I set an expectation for a “sideways” move today. Don’t consider it a prediction that I got right, since predictions are more often wrong. The point is to have an expectation that when confirmed, it can tell us the market is acting normally (or at least what I view as normal). I have an expectation for "higher" tomorrow. It is also not a prediction. The market will do whatever it decides to do. But if the market does not move higher, it could be a cause for concern, especially with the contrarian indicators at concerning levels. Assuming a support area at 12,230 is forming I would want to see that hold. I also would want to see the momentum of the big four mega-caps continue upwards, and that would almost certainly draw up the indexes. That seems very possible as the US Dollar weakens and benefits those large multi-nationals. Jerome Powell finished is comments in front of congress today and asked for more stimulus for the economy. And unlike a few weeks ago, the Treasury’s Steven Mnuchin agrees. That’s good news for continued liquidity in the market. The only question then becomes where the liquidity goes, which cap sectors, which industrial groups, which market leaders. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 12/1Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (22d), 11/24 (5d), and today 11/30 (1d). If you have ideas to make the daily update better, please let me know in the comments. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, December 1, 2020 I was shaking at the knees Facts: +1.28% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 64%, Body: 29% Good: New all-time high, afternoon dip stayed in upper half of range Bad: Gap up with lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Spinning top, longer upper/lower wicks than body. Advance/Decline: 0.88, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Sectors: Communications (XLC +1.83%) and Financials (XLF +1.54%) top. Industrials (XLI -0.25%) only losing sector. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Nasdaq opened the first session of December on a gap up and further strengthened during the morning on news that a bi-partisan group of senators put a fresh stimulus plan back on the table for negotiation. The gains took the index to a new all-time high before reversing course in the afternoon and closing in the middle of the trading range. The Nasdaq closed with a +1.28% gain on lower volume. The closing range was at 64% with a 29% green body. The spinning top candlestick has upper and lower wicks longer than the body, indicating indecision, which could represent some doubt on whether the new stimulus will pass through the political hoops and become real. The gains on the Nasdaq were not broad across the stocks, with more declining stocks than advancing stocks for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors All the major indexes ended the day with gains. The S&P 500 (SPX +1.13%) finished with gains just behind the Nasdaq. The gains for the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI +0.63%) and Russell 2000 (RUT +0.89%) were not as high. The DJI closed in the lower part of the trading range. There was some churn in the sectors throughout the day. Communications (XLC +1.83%) ended the day with the highest gains, followed by Financials (XLF +1.54%). Energy (XLE +0.46%) led the morning with a 3% gain but lost those gains after OPEC struggled to reach a consensus on production. Healthcare (XLV +0.84%) also started the day with gains but faded before the morning was over. The only losing sector for the day was Industrials (XLI -0.25%). Even Industrials did well in the morning before manufacturers purchasing data came in less than expected, signaling less future demand for the sector. The VIX volatility index rose slightly by +0.97%, but is still in a downward trend. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Indicators US30Y and US10Y bond yields spiked on the stimulus news. US30Y-US10Y spread widened slightly while the US10Y-US02Y spreads widened by 11%. Corporate Bond yields also rose for the day but not as must as Treasury bonds, tightening the spread between the two groups. The US dollar (DXY -0.75%) had a sharp decline after the stimulus news. Silver (SILVER +5.96%) and Gold (GOLD +2.14%) pivoted off yesterday’s low to make solid gains. Crude Oil Futures (CRUDEOIL1! -1.16%) continued to slide on indecision from OPEC. Timber (WOOD +2.85%) got a huge boost from the stimulus news. Aluminum (ALI1! +1.13%) is on the rise again after moving sideways for a few weeks. The put/call ratio dipped to 0.508 showing overly bullish optimism. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible pullback in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All the big four mega-caps outperformed the index today. Apple (AAPL +3.08%) had the largest gain of the four as its breaking out of a consolidation pattern. Microsoft (MSFT +1.00%), Amazon (AMZN +1.64%), and Alphabet (GOOGL +2.33%) are all trading in an area of support above their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon all have overhead supply to clear that may provide resistance for more gains. Most mega-caps had gains on the day. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM +3.96%) led semiconductors higher while Facebook (FB +3.46%) contributed to the Communications sector’s lead for the day. Growth stocks did not benefit from the stimulus news and many had losses on the day. Zoom Video (ZM -15.06%) dropped back significantly after earnings. Although it beat expectations, outlook for customer churn after the pandemic caused some investor panic. NIO (NIO -10.23%) and Moderna (MRNA +7.68%) both gave up morning gains to finish the day with big losses. Docusign (DOCU -5.34%), Fastly (FSLY -3.62%), Datadog (DDOG -3.26%), Peloton (PTON -3.71%) and other pandemic growth stocks all seemed to be dragged down after Zoom Video’s earnings call. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will continue his testimony in front of congress tomorrow. Updates on Nonfarm Employment Changes and Crude Oil Inventories will be released. Several growth companies will release earnings tomorrow. Snowflake (SNOW ) will release its first earnings report after going public earlier this year. Crowdstrike (CRWD -3.77%), SPLK (SPLUNK +1.10%), ZScaler (ZS -2.61%), Okta (OKTA -3.29%) will also report after market close. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance The one-day trend line and the five-day trend line both point to a +0.74% gain. That would be another all-time high and provide a positive signal after today’s indecisive day. Go bulls! Or will it be the bears? The longer trend line from the 10/30 bottom points to a -0.30% loss. Not a huge loss and would likely involve filling today’s gap before regaining support. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The target keeps moving. Last Wednesday, there was a rotation out of mid-caps (especially popular growth stocks) to small and larger caps. That happened again today but not quite as severe. The stimulus, the weakening dollar, the end of the pandemic has investors searching for the next themes for their portfolios. Many mid-caps will continue to grow after the pandemic but will not see the same levels of earnings acceleration in comparison to 2020. Multinational large cap and mega cap will benefit from the weakening dollar. Small caps look to grow after being impacted by the pandemic economy. For now, we know investors are not looking outside the equity markets, except for possibly some commodities. Bond yields are too low and the weakening US dollar make them an even worse safe haven. Stimulus continues to offer liquidity in the markets. So, we can have some confidence in the markets continued strength, albeit their could be pullbacks. Look for news from the fed on continued stimulus since there is some disagreement on that today. Also watch out for positive/negative news on the new stimulus. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 11/30Trend lines drawn from the 10/30 bottom (21d), 11/23 (5d), and today 11/30 (1d). If you have ideas to make the daily update better, please let me know in the comments. I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, November 30, 2020 Takin’ everythin’ in my stride Facts: -0.06% lower, Volume higher, Closing range: 79%, Body: 12% Good: Long lower shadow, filled gap but held support at 12,000 Bad: Dip in morning after a new all-time high Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low Candle: Outside day, 12% red body with long lower wick. Advance/Decline: 0.58, about three declining for every advancing stock Sectors: Technology (XLK +0.67%) and Health (XLV +0.27) were the only gaining sectors. Energy (XLE -5.53%) was the worst preforming. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Gap filled. 12,000 support held. New Intraday all-time high. The Nasdaq held a volatile session today that started with a new all-time high in the morning, but quickly turned down to fill the gap from Friday’s open and test the 12,000 support area. The good news is that it successfully held the support and closed not too far from the day’s highs. The bad news is it caused a lot of churn in many portfolios as there were 3 declining stocks for every 2 advancing stocks. The index closed with a small -0.06% loss, a sideways move that is not unexpected after last weeks gains. The closing range is 79% with a 12% body and a long lower wick that shows the bears ruled the morning, but the bulls saved the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Indexes and Sectors The S&P 500 (SPX -0.46%), Dow Jones Industrials (DJI -0.91%) both fell for the day, but it was the Russell 2000 (RUT -1.91%) that felt the most pain. The RUT ended the day with a thick red-body candle and a 15% closing range. The RUT is still above its 10d MA and was due a pullback after the incredible gains over the last three weeks. Technology (XLK +0.67%) was the top sector of the day. Health (XLV +0.27%) led most of the day, but was passed by Technology in late afternoon trading. All other sectors had losses for the day. Energy (XLE -5.53%) fell back significantly after OPEC warned of immense challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The VIX volatility index decreased by -1.30%, continuing a downward trend and closing at its lowest point since February. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Indicators US30Y and US10Y bond yields fell on Monday while the US30Y-US10Y and US10Y-US02Y spreads remained about the same. Corporate Bond yields rose slightly for the day and the Corporate bonds to Treasury bonds spread remained about the same. The US dollar (DXY +0.23%) gained back some of last week’s losses, but remains below a support area. Silver (SILVER -0.25%) and Gold (GOLD -0.60%) continued a downward trend that started at the beginning of November. Crude Oil Futures (CRUDEOIL1! -1.13%) ended the day with losses. Timber (WOOD -0.94%) fell back just slightly. The put/call ratio rose to 0.610 after hitting dangerous lows last week. The pullback in the market helped cool off some of the overly bullish sentiment. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. 0.7 is considered normal. As it approaches 0.60 (overly bullish) and below, watch for a possible reversal in the market. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL +2.11%) finally broke out above the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines, after a couple weeks of consolidation. Microsoft (MSFT -0.54%), Amazon (AMZN -0.85%) and Alphabet (GOOGL -1.83%) all had losses but are all trading at or above the key moving average lines. Microsoft had a dip below the 50d MA, but recovered and closed above both the 50d MA and the 21d EMA. Most mega-caps had losses on the day. Pfizer (PFE +2.90%), Roche Holding (RHHBF +2.17%) and Apple were the only mega-caps to close with more than 2% gains. Growth stocks had a mix of results. Moderna (MRNA +20.24%) did not get the memo on the stock market pullback and shot up another 20%. Peloton (PTON +6.76%), Datadog (DDOG +2.59%) and Zoom Video (ZM +1.43%) were among pandemic stocks that had gains on the day. Zoom Video is down -5% after hours despite exceeding expectations in their earnings release. Chinese stock Autohome (ATHM -10.83%) was down significantly after beating expectations but missing on revenue in their earnings release before market open. Also, Chinese stocks NIO (NIO -6.43%), Alibaba (BABA -4.75%) and JD.com (JD -4.54%) also sold off significantly today. It could be related to the semi-annual MSCI rebalance which would impact passively indexed ETFs. The rebalance reduced exposure to Hong Kong stocks to make room for an upgrade of status to Kuwait and increase in India’s weight. It is not clear if that's the entire reason for the declines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead All eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as he testifies before congress on the state of the economy, scheduled to start at 10am. Manufacturing data will also be released tomorrow giving an update on economic activity. There are no notable earnings reports tomorrow for this daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support and Resistance All three trend lines point to positive gains. The one-day trend points at the same point as the long-term trend from the 10/30 bottom. That would result in a +0.50% gain. The five-day trend is pointing to a +0.99% gain. Either result would be a new all-time high. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There were three factors that impacted stocks today. First OPEC released comments from their meeting that said there were immense challenges on the horizon, impacting crude oil prices and the energy sector. The outlook and the rising challenges with the pandemic second wave also depressed travel, transportation, and leisure stocks. Pending New Home Sales and Chicago Purchasing Manufacture’s Index were less than expected and seemed to add to an already declining market. The declines accelerated before reversing at 10:45am on the Nasdaq. The final factor for today was the semi-annual index review of the MSCI which upgraded Kuwait to an emerging country and added to the weight of India. It seemed to have at least some impact on Chinese stocks as money rebalanced between the markets represented. Overall, the Nasdaq gave some signs of strength even as it closed with a loss for the day. The drop to fill the gap from last Friday did not come as a big surprise. The further dip tested the 12,000 support area and the index rose from there to get back to the top of the daily trading range. That should give some optimism for the week ahead, but further economic news is on the way, including comments from the Fed during tomorrow's Joint Economic Committee meeting. Take care!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
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