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Nasdaq Market Update for 10/27Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (38d), 9/24 bottom (24d), 10/12 pivot day (12d), 10/21 (5d), and today 10/27 (1d). Tuesday, October 27, 2020 You shake my nerves and you rattle my brain Facts: +0.64% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 67%, Green Body: +21% Good: Upward trend most of the day, staying above the 50d MA Bad: Could not stay above the 21d EMA Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low, inside day Candle: An inside day with a small green body, nearly identical upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.63, 3:2 decliners to advancers Sectors: Communications (XLC) and Technology (XLK) performed best. All other sectors lost, with Industrials (XLI) and Financials (XLF) performing worst. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The follow-up to a terrible Monday was an inside day with gains in the Nasdaq while the rest of the market continued to melt down among mixed signals from a positive Durable Goods report, but an unexpected dip in Consumer Confidence. The Nasdaq ended the day up +0.64% higher, driven by big tech and hot communications sector stocks. The day was a bit choppy, but the overall channel for the day was upward. The index poked above its 21d EMA four times but settled at the end of the day just below the key line. The candle is inside the highs and lows of the previous day which typically is a continuation (vs a reversal). Keeping that in mind, it did close in the 67% range of the candle with a green 21% body. There were many more declining stocks than advancing stocks at a ratio of 3:2 (the ratio is worse in the broader NYSE). Volume was lower and continues to be much lower than recent average volume. The index closed below the 21d EMA, but above the 50d MA, both key lines that investors commonly watch. The S&P500 (SPX -0.30%) and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI -0.80%), had decidedly bearish inside days, spending most of the day trading below their 50d MA. The Russell 2000 (RUT -0.90%) also had another loss, falling below the 21d EMA. Communication Services (XLC +0.64%) was the best sector of the day, driven by gains from Facebook (FB +2.23%) and Google (GOOG +0.87%). Technology (XLK +0.50%) sector also had a great day but was driven mostly by the larger stocks Apple (AAPL +1.35%) and Microsoft (MSFT +1.51%). All other sectors lost on the day with Industrial (XLI -2.19%) and Financial (XLF -1.83%) sectors ending the day with the worst performance. Utilities (XLU -0.08%) had early gains and topped the sector list at times, then faded near close. The VIX volatility index increased +2.74% for another gain on top of Monday's surge. The key indicator is now up over 20% for the week and nearing the early September highs. Treasury Bond spreads shrunk for another day. This is something to keep an eye on, but the spread is still in an upward trend channel from an August pivot. The real winners of the day were the mega-caps. Microsoft (MSFT +1.51%), Apple (AAPL +1.35%), Google (GOOG +0.87%), Amazon (AMZN +2.47%), Tesla (TSLA +1.05%) and Facebook (FB +2.23%) all turned in solid gains for the day. Microsoft and Apple still closed below their 21d EMA, but Amazon regained this key support to join Google above the line. Facebook has a nice base forming heading into earnings. Beyond the mega-caps, the performance is mixed among favorite growth stocks. Dexcom (DXCM -8.94%), Draft Kings (DKNG +2.49%), Workhorse Group (WKHS -6.91%), AMD (-4.07%) were among the losers. Pinterest (PINS +4.08%), Etsy (ETSY +4.33%), Peloton (PTON +2.58%) and Datadog (DDOG +1.57%) were some of the winners. Notice these lists of winners and losers among the favorite growth stocks is rotating at an accelerated space. Microsoft (MSFT) and AMD (AMD) reported earnings with Microsoft down -1.71% and AMD up +0.34% in afterhours trading, despite both beating expectations. Tomorrow’s reports will include Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V), Boeing (BA), and ServiceNow (NOW) which will all be significant, with several reporting before market open. In economic news, Crude Oil Inventories will be announced at 10:30a. Continuing today’s trend direction would result in a +0.34% gain tomorrow, taking the index back above the 21d EMA and signaling some recovery from the recent downtrend. Better news from stimulus talks or coronavirus treatments could accelerate that to meet up with the longer trend lines at +2.45%. The index is still trading below the 21d EMA and above the 50d MA which seems to be a channel for now. In addition, there is a channel that formed from the 10/12 pivot day with a well-defined upper and lower channel line. Following the channel and the regression trend from the 10/12 pivot day as well as the 5d trend, would mean a -0.99% loss and land the index right above the 50d MA. I'm keeping the June Support line in view, but its ~12.5% below the Tuesday close and there are 3 key support levels that the index would have to break thru. If we have a significant downside that takes the index below 11,300 again, then I'll add that possibility back to the chart.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq Market Update for 10/26Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (37d), 9/24 bottom (23d), 10/12 pivot day (11d), 10/20 (5d), and today 10/26 (1 day). Monday, October 26, 2020 Hold tight, we're in for nasty weather Burning down the house Facts: -1.64% higher, Volume higher, Closing range: 42%, Red Body: -25% Good: Support at the end of the day, brought the index back over 50d MA Bad: Everything else, gap down, closed below the 21d EMA and took a visit below the 50d MA Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: A large body for a spinning top, but nonetheless shows clearer the action from bears and bulls. Advance/Decline: 0.23, more than 4 decliners for every advancer Sectors: All sectors down with Utilities (XLU) performing best, holding to a -0.03% loss. Energy (XLE) was the worst sector with a -3.59%, erasing gains from last week. Keeping an eye on Technology (XLK) this week, it’s near the middle of the sector list with a -2.17% loss and underperforming the SPX. Expectation: Sideways Well, crap. Welcome to Monday. News over the weekend reset expectations coming into the morning, but there was still hope that support would firm up and it initially did that as the market opened, coming close to Friday’s high. Then the reversal, 30 minutes into trading, came after New Home Sales data disappointed and it was a long slide from there. At 1:30p, the Nasdaq was down nearly 3% and below the key 50d MA support line. At that point, the bulls came in and brought it back to end the day with a -1.64% loss. The candle looks like a spinning top, albeit a fat one, with a 25% red body and a 42% closing range. There were more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock. Volume was slightly higher than Friday, but still well below recent average volume. The index closed below the 21d EMA for the first time since 9/25. The S&P500 had a slightly different character with no morning gains. It was all downhill most of the day, with some buying in the afternoon to finish at -1.86% loss. All sectors finished with a loss, but Utilities (XLU) held up the best with only a -0.03% loss. This has been the safe haven sector for investors to stay in the market, instead of going to bonds or commodities. Health (XLV -1.11%), Consumer Staples (XLP -1.28%), Real Estate (XLRE -1.21%) all outperformed the broader index. The first two likely because of pandemic news and the third benefiting from the drop in new home sales (XLRE is dominated by management companies, that benefit from less demand and cheaper prices in real estate). The Russell 2000 (RUT -2.15%) wiped away all gains from the previous week, performing almost as bad as the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI -2.29%). Treasury Bond spreads shrunk but remained in an upward channel from the last few weeks. The mega-caps had a mixed day. Microsoft (MSFT -2.84%) closed well below it’s 50d MA line, likely being impacted by SAP (SAP -23.16%) that revised guidance downward over the weekend, sending a signal there may be trouble in enterprise software. Google (GOOG -3.08%) gave up about half of it’s gains from last week. Apple (AAPL +0.01%) and Amazon (AMZN +0.08%) faired a bit better, ending the day with small gains, although both are holding below key indicators of 21d EMA and 50d MA. The storied stock from last week, Snap (SNAP -4.40%) finally gave up some profits, while there was a lot of carnage with other growth stocks. There were some positive stories among growth stocks. Deckers Outdoor (DECK +2.58%), Shopify (SHOP +1.15%), ZScaler (ZS +1.33%), Zoom Video (ZM +1.23%), Wayfair (W +2.07%) all had good days while the market was struggling. Microsoft (MSFT) and AMD (AMD) earnings after close tomorrow. Core Durable Goods Orders data comes in before market and Consumer Confidence data at 10:00am. I’ll start with the positive trend lines, although I think some sideways action is in order after a negative expectation breaker day. Nonetheless, unexpected news can help put some positive gains in the market. With enough energy, the index could find its way back to the correction regression trend line (which is still on an upward slope) and the trend from the 9/24 bottom. That would be an unlikely +3.30% gain. The index landed below the 21d EMA, but above the 50d MA. This provides both a resistance and support point that points to a sideways move. The trend line from the 10/12 pivot day, points to a -0.40% loss that keeps the index within this channel. The one day trend points to more losses and would result in -2.50% loss. I'm keeping the June Support line in view, but its ~12% below the Monday close and there are 3 key support levels that the index would have to break thru. If we have a significant downside that takes the index below 11,300 again, then I'll add that possibility back to the chart.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq Market Update for 10/23Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (36d), 9/24 bottom (22d), 10/12 pivot day (10d), 10/19 (5d), and today 10/23 (1 day). Friday, October 23, 2020 We were runnin' against the wind Facts: 0.37% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Green Body: +11% Good: Held above key support at 21d EMA Bad: Low volume, not much price movement Highs/Lows: Higher high (by a fraction), higher low Candle: Long lower wick as investors bought up the lows to end nearly where the day started. Advance/Decline: 1.63, more advancers than decliners Sectors: Communication Services (XLC) led the day with +0.94% gain. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) also had a good day at +0.88%. Expectation: Higher One more day of reversals to close a choppy week. Every day this week had a morning move that reversed once or more by close. Earlier in the week it was higher highs that reversed to lower lows. At the end of the week, it was lows that reversed to close with gains. Today the Nasdaq ended with a +0.37% gain. The candle has a tiny 11% green body and 100% closing range as the day ended at its high, but not much above where it started. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks at a ratio of 1.63. Volume was lower than the previous day and much lower than average volume over the past few weeks. The index tested the 21d EMA again and stayed above it. The S&P500 had an even tighter range between open and close and ended with a similar +0.34% gain. Communication Services (XLC +0.94%) had the best gains among sectors fueled by positive gains from social platforms. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.88%) also did well today, with a mix of discount retailers, auto parts and restaurant/service companies doing well. Technology (XLK -0.11%) and Energy (XLE -0.49%) were the worst performing of the day. The Russell 2000 capped off a winning week with another +0.88% gain. Google (GOOG +1.59%) continued the momentum it has gained the last few weeks while Microsoft (MSFT +0.62%) and Amazon (AMZN +0.88%) finally found some support with significant gains. Apple (AAPL -0.61%) and Amazon remain under their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. The story of the week has been Snap (SNAP +10.78%) which continues to have incredible gains after it’s earnings release. More growth stocks have turned back toward gains which is a positive sign for continued gains next week. Continuing today’s trend into Monday would mean around a +0.66% gain, splitting the difference between the 1d trend line and the trend drawn from the 9/3 correction. The trend from the 9/24 bottom is +2.67% from today’s close and is a possibility if good news comes over the weekend to fuel gains. As the index continues to test the 21d EMA, it’s possible it can find itself below that line. That would continue this past week’s trend to a -1.29% loss and land under the October Support area. Further losses would find the 50d MA and the index would likely get support at that level. I'm keeping the June Support line in view, but its ~13% below the Friday close and there are 4 key support levels that the index would have to break thru. If we have a significant downside that takes the index below 11,300, then I'll add that possibility back to the chart.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq Market Update for 10/22Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (35d), 9/24 bottom (21d), 10/12 pivot day (9d), 10/16 (5d), and today 10/22 (1 day). Thursday, October 22, 2020 Livin’ on a prayer. Facts: 0.19% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 76%, Red Body: -12% Good: Reversed from morning lows to end day positive Bad: Dipped below 21d EMA Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Looks like a hammer, 12% red body with 76% closing range. Advance/Decline: 1.76, more advancers than decliners Sectors: Energy (XLE) had a huge 4.13% gain. Financial (XLF), Health (XLV) and Utilities (XLU) also had good days. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Finally, there is a bit of character change in the market. After several days of morning gains selling off in afternoon trading, the opposite happened on Thursday. A big morning loss that took the index below the 21d EMA was bought back in the afternoon to end the day with gains. The Nasdaq ended the day with a 0.19% gain. The candle, with a 76% closing range and 12% red body looks like a reversal hammer. That will need to be confirmed with the next few days of trading. Volume was lower (my indicator above is based on QQQ volume) for the Nasdaq and continues to be lower than average volume in recent weeks. For a true hammer candlestick, we'd want to see higher volume. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks at a ratio of 1.76. It’s a positive sign that the index regained it’s ground and closed above the 21 day EMA. The S&P500 had a similar pattern and closed the day with a 0.52% gain, led by Energy (XLE +4.13%) and Financial (XLF +1.99%). Most of the sectors saw gains on the day. Technology (XLK -0.24%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.70%) were the worst performing. The Russell 2000 Index had gains of 1.65% as investors looked for good opportunities in small cap stocks. Google (GOOG +1.38%) led the mega-cap stocks with it’s second day of solid gains. Apple (AAPL -0.96%) and Amazon (AMZN -0.27%) had losses on the day and continue to trade below their 50 day MA. It would be a positive sign for an overall upward trend if these mega-caps got back above this key line. Chevron (CVX +3.57%) and Exxon Mobil (XOM +5.13%) along with almost every energy stock saw gains after talk of consolidation in the industry and layoffs at Exxon. Snap (SNAP +6.77%) continued it’s rally after an earnings breakout. Several growth stocks such as Restoration Hardware (RH +4.34%) and Zoom (ZM +1.43%) had gains after several days of losses. This is all a good sign, but needs to be confirmed with additional gains from more growth stocks. If the candlestick hammer is confirmed and we see gains from here, trend lines point to two possibilities. The first is a +1.01% gain in the area between today’s trend line and the trend drawn from the 9/3 correction start. Additional positive news could accelerate gains to reach the trend line draw from the 9/23 bottom. That would mean a +3.42% gain. If the index cannot hold above the 21d EMA, then the 5 day trend and trend from the 10/12 pivot would point to a -1.50%. This is where the 50d MA line is at and where we’ve seen support from September trading. I'm keeping the June Support line in view, but its ~13% below the Thursday close and there are 4 key support levels that the index would have to break thru. If we have a significant downside that takes the index below 11,300, then I'll add that possibility back to the chart.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
ridethepig | Buyers in Difficulty📌 A timely update to the S&P weekly chart, where we can see clearly sellers are provoking the breakdown into some sort of waterfall. All Global Equity charts look very similar with the traditional struggle between the defending fast money crowd and the more MT and LT sharks who are aware that the momentum is stalling and are itching to load at cheaper levels. What is becoming clearer by the day is that Fed has blown a bubble which is exposed to a second round of lockdowns and a contested election will prevent any from hanging on. Here sharp speculators will have to bite the bullet and hold shorts while looking to reload full positions at the highs. Tracking closely 3,000 and 2,900 as the next areas of interest. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ridethepig
15
RTY Update 10/9Well, I was all cash and overslept, lol. I'm on the west coast, not waking up at 6am when I'm all cash. I warned everyone last night about "stimulus" news, everything overbought but still rallying. If they agree to a deal over the weekend, we get a huge gap up on Monday, despite all indicators. All other world indices were slightly red, which I expected and I wasn't going to bet against my indicators, so I stayed out. RTY MFI did drop, and it will pop again when MFI gets oversold, so look for another pop next week on stimulus to close the COVID gap. YM (Dow) dropped when it closed the gap, expect the same here. Wish I had bout FTNT or DLTR calls, both were on my radar. Oh well. Also, don;t short on Friday afternoons, market always seems to rally. I think all cash and fade the gap when stimulus news is announced.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by hungry_hippo
October 7 PlanAlongside news that President Trump halted relief talks with Democrats until after the election, markets fell apart, retesting the prior week balance and the VWAP anchored from the September highs. Since the cash close, markets have recovered substantially off their overnight lows alongside comments Trump could send $1,200 checks to Americans. The action has been constructive and we're now sitting right on top of a major high-volume concentration that denotes recent value and should allow responsive sellers favorable entry if there has been an actual change in conviction. Auctioning through the high-volume area and recovering the SOC (Scene Of The Crime) would increase the odds we test the 61.8% retracement (i.e., $3,440). Overall, remaining above the $3,370 high-volume area is bullish. Below $3,370 is bearish. This will likely be a go, no-go level in today's trade. Note: Prior to the sell-off, the market was showing signs of a balance-area break-out, piercing through the "Ledge". The fact that it was building value north of the ledge gave initiative longs confidence to discover higher. Given that the news event brought us back into range, there's potential that the responsive participants auction price lower to the other end of balance, near the $3,320 area (i.e., a boundary of the low-volume area which denotes upside directional conviction). Defense of the low-volume area is paramount. Should price probe into and auction through the area, then a likely target would be the recent $3,198 swing low.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
September 27 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: $3,200 High Volume Area; Friday’s Divergence From Value; Balance Area. Technical: Broad-market equity indices ended lower with the S&P 500 correcting as low as $3,200. Recapping last week’s action, Monday's test of the $3,200 high-volume area offered responsive buyers an opportunity to get in at favorable prices. Buying continued through Tuesday, before resisting an area of resting liquidity at $3,300. After disappointments in business activity data and stimulus talks, on heavy-volume and supportive delta, Wednesday's liquidation erased the entire week’s gains. Alongside improvements in home sale data, mega-caps and technology led the market higher, through Friday's close, away from value. Overall, in the bigger picture, the market is churning above $3,200, the site of a large high-volume area which denotes the market’s recent perception of value. When prices trade to a high-volume area, on a swing up auction, then trade should slow allowing responsive longs a good place to enter. Should prices trade and spend time below this area, then perceptions have changed and longs are no longer favorable, at least in the near term. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: John Authers, a Bloomberg columnist, suggested gold is falling due to rise in real yields. “When real yields rise then gold, which pays no income, can be expected to fall. This is true even if real yields are rising from deeply negative territory. To explain the intuition behind this, gold is widely regarded as a hedge against central banking irresponsibility. Recent speculation is that the Fed may not print money and cut rates with quite the gay abandon that had been assumed. This may or may not be good news for the U.S. economy, but it raises real yields and for investors in gold and in risk assets, who might benefit from currency debasement, it is definitely bad news.” bloom.bg Simply put, the theory that the Federal Reserve exhausted itself has buoyed real yields, which have an inverse relationship to metals. Key Events: Monday: Fed Mester Speech. Tuesday: Goods Trade Balance, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Harker Speech, CB Consumer Confidence, Fed Williams Speech, Presidential Debate. Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, GDP Growth Rate, Core PCE Prices QoQ Final, Corporate Profits, GDP Price Index, PCE Prices QoQ Final, Pending Home Sales, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, Fed Kashkari Speech, Fed Kaplan Speech. Thursday: Core PCE Price Index YoY, PCE Price Index YoY, Continuing Jobless Claims, Core PCE Price Index MoM, Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, Markit Manufacturing PMI Final, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending MoM, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Fed Williams Speech. Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM, Average Hourly Earnings YoY, Average Weekly Hours, Non-Farm Payrolls Private, Participation Rate, Fed Harker Speech, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Factory Orders MoM, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Inflation Expectations Final. Recent News: Fed publishes scenarios for the second round of 2020 stress tests, a credit positive. bit.ly Sea level rise increases credit risk for U.S. coastal states and local governments. bit.ly Airlines are calling for COVID-19 coronavirus tests before all international flights. reut.rs Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) gets U.S. licenses to supply to Huawei. reut.rs China air force video appears to show a simulated attack on U.S. base on Guam. reut.rs How secular shifts will force the U.S. commercial real estate market to adapt. bit.ly Government aid and stock gains pushed U.S. wealth to pre-pandemic levels. reut.rs As U.S. business activity loses momentum, home price inflation accelerates. reut.rs JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) to pay nearly $1 billion in spoofing penalty. reut.rs Higher inflation regime in medium term after decade of persistent undershooting. bit.ly A jump in U.S. coal railroad volumes, 2021 forecasts are driving up sentiment. bit.ly Global banks seek to contain damage over $2 trillion of suspicious transfers. reut.rs Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) pushes security with indoor drones, car alarms. reut.rs Crude, product prices diverge as market looks to U.S. stimulus, COVID situation. bit.ly IEA analysis of innovation in batteries and electricity storage, based on patent data. bit.ly U.S. upgrades accounted for three-fourths of affected debt in the latest period. bit.ly Hedge funds see opportunity in the New York, San Francisco apartment markets. reut.rs Low interest rates create pension and investment challenges but lower debt costs. bit.ly China is on course for record LNG imports as industries recover and expand. reut.rs General Electric Co (NYSE: GE) plans to stop making coal-fired power plants. reut.rs COVID ‘firepower’: Britain imposed six month curbs against a second virus wave. reut.rs Microsoft Corporation’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) acquisition of ZeniMax credit positive. bit.ly Bombardier Inc’s (OTC: BDRBF) agreement to sell transport unit credit negative. bit.ly Coronavirus resets Latin American economies at lower base, driving asset risks. bit.ly California banning sale of new gasoline-powered passenger vehicles in 2035. reut.rs Data is suggesting that splits fundamentally change how stocks perform. bit.ly The corporate bond issuance boom may steady credit quality, on balance. bit.ly Per earnings and interest rate forecasts, valuations not supported fundamentally. bit.ly Data expected to confirm sentiment eased across most European countries. bit.ly Wary buyers and softer foreign demand, likely raised Japan’s unemployment rate. bit.ly On balance, 2020’s bond issuance boom enhanced overall financial flexibility. bit.ly Demographics and the rising cost of funding retirement may affect valuations. bloom.bg Key Metrics: Sentiment: 24.9% Bullish, 29.1% Neutral, 46.0% Bearish as of 9/23/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 1,152,474,010 as of 9/25/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 42.2% as of 9/25/2020. bit.ly Product Snapshot: S&P 500 (ES): TVC:SPX AMEX:SPY TVC:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:RUT AMEX:IWM Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD AMEX:GDX TVC:GOLD Crude Oil (CL): TVC:USOIL AMEX:USL AMEX:DBO AMEX:USO Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
7