RUSSELL 2000
Head and Shoulders Topping Formation on the Russell2000The recent failure of First Republic Bank highlights the problems facing the US banking system. These problems include the continued increase of delinquency rates on Credit cards, Commercial Real Estate & Automobiles, as well as a decrease of commercial bank deposits and M2 money supply (-4.2% YoY). These problems, among others, are causing banking institutions to rein in their lending to build reserves and take on debt from the FED & FHLBs to meet deposit withdrawals. This reduces the profitability of banks and restricts credit into the economy, which reduces economic activity as a whole. The economy had already begun slowing heavily before the credit crunch began in March 2023, but the current business cycle downturn, combined with 3 large regional bank failures and rising continuing jobless claims, portend a severe & lengthy economic contraction. The Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators registered a -7.2% YoY Contraction recently. Since 1968, Any Conference Board LEI contraction of more than -2% YoY has never yielded a false positive in regards to a coming recession.
Over 40% of Russell2000 companies are unprofitable and over 24% of S&P500 companies are zombie companies. Markets are still very overvalued within the context of a 5% Fed funds rate, contracting earnings, a credit crunch, and ongoing quantitative tightening by the FED. The markets have been seeing less buying volumes as well as carving out a head and shoulders top on the Russell2000. Other problems facing the banks include the popping auto & commercial real estate debt bubbles, as well as increasing large corporate bankruptcies (The most since 2010 thus far this year). The IPO market is the weakest it has been since 2009 (by total proceeds), which is also hurting Investment banking profits. I see the potential for 5%-10% possible upside and 35%-50% downside for the Russell2000 & S&P500 over the next 9 -18 months.
Thank you for reading,
Alexander C. Lambert
RTY UpdateMFI dropping fast, but RTY barely even dipped. There's a weird short squeeze on garbage stocks today. AFRM, PTON, BYND, TSLA (lol) all green by a lot.
No trades, but I'm hoping for the market to tank so we finally get some tradable action.
Note: Some of the garbage stocks appear to have rolled over, might be a play there.
RTY MFI OverboughtYeah, I said overBOUGHT. That means don't BTFD.
Wanted to post this early since I said BTFD earlier this week. I have NO intentions of going long today. Will post ES and NQ updates later since they are not overbought yet.
Also, I was right about playing GM puts for TSLA earnings, looks to be 175% return on open. I didn't play it, lol. Gonna kick myself on this one, I mentioned it twice before close yesterday.
RTY UpdateJust drifting sideways, indicators are neutral. I think MFI goes oversold tomorrow morning on RTY and ES, will wait until then to BTFD, lol.
I think it's gonna be a whipsaw day. Futures need to sell off but lots of dip buyers already. Slept in (kinda obvious now, lol) because I was all cash, no positions. Will take a potshot at the market again tomorrow if indicators go oversold.
No idea which way the market gaps tomorrow, I'm not bullish on TSLA earnings. FDAX MFI is dropping but the index isn't. Maybe another small gap down again? i dunno.
Really thinking it might be a good time to take a break from the market... but PCAR earnings next Tuesday. Maybe after that.
RTY UpdateCPI pump and dump as predicted, RTY went overbought on RSI with MFI divergence.
Fed meeting minutes at 2pm, unemployment and PPI numbers premarket tomorrow and retail numbers premarket Friday. Garbage stocks didn't even last 15 minutes, lol. PTON shot down so fast I couldn't even catch up to it. Managed to snag a few BYND puts, we'll see where taht goes.
Might snag some CAT puts EOD for unemployment number tomorrow.
IWM Russell 2000 RUT affected by the SIVB collapse! Puts to buy!After the last RUT Russell 2000 Price Target was Perfectly reached:
Now you need to know that many of the Russell 2K companies will be impacted by the SIVB collapse.
Roughly 50% of the US venture capital-funded startups are clients of SVB , potentially putting 65,000 startups at risk of payroll disruptions. Such a situation could have significant consequences for the startup and tech sectors.
Silicon Valley Bank did business with FTX, plus many other formerly overvalued tech companies.
With $210 billion in assets, $SIBV was the 15th largest bank in the US in terms of deposits.
IWM puts considering buying:
2023-4-21 expiration date
$169 Strike Price
$3.65 Premium
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
RTY UpdateThe algos are pumping money into RTY trying to hold that blue line. You can see MFI climbing.
Problem is MFI will go overbought Monday so we'll see a drop Tuesday, if not Monday afternoon. Plus Euro markets tanked so we might even see a gap down Monday. Seems to me garbage stocks are done tanking so there's really no choice but to go long here.
Crappy whipsaw market to trade.
$VIX hits top part of Symmetrical triangle$VIX rarely tends to trade in a small & tight range.
#VIX Sold off big last couple months & traded in a decent range for a bit & recently, including today, popped big.
As you can see it hit the top part of the Triangle Formation.
Hard to call here but stocks gaining some momentum, being that many were OVERSOLD, including $DJI & $NDX, $SPX and so on, is not out of the question.
Risk reward @ day lows in #stocks was good. A lot of fear out there is good for reversals.
Keep eye out on 4 hour charts for a good idea of where we stand.
FYI $DJI 4hour close was NOT the best setup BUT it did form a BULLISH Engulfing with GOOD VOLUME.
IMO 32.5k on #DJI is good & if it breaks & holds that is a good sign.
📉 Stoch Markets: Is the worst really over? 🚀⁉️📝 I will try to analyze the market as a whole, with reference to the Russell 3000 index , which is broader than the S&P 500 .
(Russell 3000 is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S. stock market. It measures the performance of the 3,000 largest publicly held companies incorporated in America as measured by total market capitalization, and represents approximately 97% of the American public equity market).
📈 On the top chart we have the Russell 3000 .
📉 On the bottom chart, we have the Russell 2000 Growth divided by the Russell 2000 Value .
(The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap stock market index that makes up the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index).
The intention here is to see how the companies classified in the 'Growth Investing' category are performing, using the 'Value Investing' companies as a parameter.
🤔 As a rule, it is to be expected that when traders and investors are more prone to risk, they invest more money in 'growth investing' companies than in 'value investing' companies.
1) Analyzing divergences
1.1) 2006-2008
In the period from 2006 to 2008 we had a divergence: the Russell 3000 had lower funds, while the Growth companies had higher funds. The apex was found precisely in the blue diagonal channel, on 12/30/2008. Note that Russell's bottom was only found on 03/10/2009, 3 months later. There is a clear anticipation in the contribution of 'Growth' companies.
1.2) 2014-2016
Russell tests the support of the green line several times, the last one being on 02/11/2016.
Meanwhile, Growth companies remain on the rise, however reaching the blue diagonal channel again on 02/02/2017, 1 year later.
In this case there was an outflow of 'Growth' companies, at least until reaching the blue diagonal channel. After that the increase continues.
1.3) 2018-2020
In this period we have a classic book divergence.
The Russell peaks downwards on 21/12/2018, and later on 23/03/2020, featuring lower bottoms.
Meanwhile, 'Growth' companies continue to 'respect' the green close with ever higher funds, reaching a low peak on the same date.
1.4) 2022-?
Considering the bad macro-economic scenario, with the high cost of money and inflation, it would be surprising that the 'Growth' companies had a better performance than the 'Value' ones. Despite this pessimistic bias, if this indicator breaks above this green diagonal line and stays there, I will reconsider this opinion. If not, I think it is more likely that it will hit the blue diagonal channel again to form the final divergence.
🟢 For comparison purposes, considering a more global aspect and not just the small companies of the Russell 2000, the same analysis could be done on the ratio between the RAG and RAV indices (Russel 3000 Growth/Russel 3000 Value):
2006-2008
2014-2016
2018-2020
2022-?
🔵 What's important to note is that these key moments happened in December and March.
Russell 2000 potential for bullish rise to overlap resistanceLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for RUT is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market.
Looking for a buy entry at 1893.8737, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 1722.0208, where the previous swing low is. Take profit will be at 2134.4378, where the overlap resistance is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Russell 2000 potential for rise towards overlap resistanceLooking at the D1 chart, my overall bias for RUT is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.
Looking for a pullback buy entry at 1889.4148, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and overlap support is. Stop loss will be at 1722.0208, where the recent swing low is. Take profit will be at 2134.1183, where the overlap resistance is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bunch of copy paste quotes on Fed Meeting, $DJI $NDX GREAT DAY!Apologize for the LATE post on this
We posted this elsewhere, documented, and bringing it here
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Yesterday
So, #fed tomorrow.......
We get 25, likely rally and fade next day or few days later
We get 50, likely sell off decently & then rally
This could reverse in one day or take week or more
#FederalReserve meeting
#stocks #crypto #inflation
Done for today :) Good day overall
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Early Today, after announcement-
Was at least expecting a pop first before the fall
Interesting day today
Maybe we get the fall and then the rally...
However how we end the day, the next day tends to be a reverse of some sort
$DJI $NDX $SPX
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After-
For a second we though we were going to get put (sold a bunch of put options when $DJI was off 340 points and $NDX was closer to day lows) a ton of #stock ROFL
Limits being filled, not being greedy
#crypto green
US #Dollar $DXY hitting lows (did say HISTORICALLY doesn't hold)
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We've been cautious #BULL for a bit & we need 2b weary of EUPHORIA
We're watching for that, IMPORTANT!
$VIX @ bottom trend (we'll know VERY SOON what's up)
#yield falling $TNX, 2yr not as much, hmmm
#stocks huge turnaround
#crypto as well
What about volume? Soon
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$NDX & $DJI BUY volume is still there but it's lowering
#DJI looking GOOD atm
$NDX NO slouch testing downtrend soon
#markets ARE IRRATIONAL
Look at volume, patterns & trend!!!
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Recent
Awesome #stock day today! Good for the week!
Raised cash again for trading
Have some longs still
$DOW $META (taking some off here), $KHC $INTC $ATVI & some others BUT aggressive TRADING still 1/3 in bonds, expire soon, & cash for tomorrow & other days
Done for day &👀direction
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Look at $RUT $IWM
RISK is ON ON ON
Has been on
Volume is ok
#stocks have been looking ok
$DJI breaking symmetrical = continuation pattern
Staying cautious BULL!
More haters of rally = GOOD!
Keep eye on EUPHORIA!
YOU need to see this now - THE DANGER LINEThis is a wave trend indicator on the S&P 500 index that is based on relative strength with straightforward oversold or overbought conditions. Relative strength is a measure of momentum where both speed (time) and magnitude (change) is measured and plotted with simple or weighted moving averages.
What you are seeing above is a snapshot of a RSI/wave trend of the S&P 500 index based on monthly candles. Understand that it takes the measure of a month of time just to get a single plot of data and this particular snapshot represents over two decades. But right before your eyes are very clear trends. The data is just pure and simple math and math does not lie. Ignore the news. Follow price, volume, momentum.. just follow the data.
I will try not to state my opinion too much.. and just follow the data. What I see on the chart is concerning. If this decline continues over the next month or two, momentum is going to accelerate and volatility go up while the market basically crashes... i.e. if the DANGER LINE is breached. I found it odd that volatility (VIX) has been quite docile considering the amount of downside we've seen in the indices this year. That is concerning. It is entirely possible that the September thru November monthly candles are positive and this trend finds support.. and the danger line is not breached. On the flipside, this decent can continue and really pick up speed and we see a 2000-2003 correction or 2007-2009.
Here is an overlay snapshot with those corrections to similar scale. That is what could happen if the current trend continues.. we could see 12-24 months of recession and very steep drops and sharp bearish reversals. Be careful, manage risk, consider hedging certain positions, and know that you DO NOT know what is going to happen.
Russell 2000 Potential for Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for RUT is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.
Look for a potential buy entry at 1789.4537, where the overlap support and 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 1722.0208, where the previous swing low is. Take profit will be at 1911.6949, where the overlap resistance is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
RUT @ the gate of "Havens", if rejected only "Hell" is the ALT !Golden Cross vs. Death Cross: An Overview
Technical analysis involves the use of statistical analysis to make trading decisions. Technical analysts use a ton of data, often in the form of charts, to analyze stocks and markets. At times, the trend lines on these charts curve and cross in ways that form shapes, often given funny names like "cup with handle," "head and shoulders," and "double top." Technical traders learn to recognize these common patterns and what they might portend for the future performance of a stock or market.
A golden cross and a death cross are exact opposites. A golden cross indicates a long-term bull market going forward, while a death cross signals a long-term bear market. Both refer to the solid confirmation of a long-term trend by the occurrence of a short-term moving average crossing over a major long-term moving average.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
A golden cross suggests a long-term bull market going forward, while a death cross suggests a long-term bear market.
Either crossover is considered more significant when accompanied by high trading volume.
Once the crossover occurs, the long-term moving average is considered a major support level (in the case of the golden cross) or resistance level (in the instance of the death cross) for the market from that point forward.
Either cross may occur as a signal of a trend change, but they more frequently occur as a strong confirmation of a change in trend that has already taken place.