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RUSSELL 2000

RTY New OverlayMarket tanked today on Consumer Confidence numbers released at 10am. Wasn't paying attention to the news since I flipped my calls at 9:45. RTY didn't get the gap fill so you know it has to try again, lol. I overlaid the last gap fill pattern, down tomorrow, more whipsaw this week then another gap fill attempt next week. Bad news won't keep the market from getting the gap fill, heck, they tried to pump it a week after the Fed said possible .75 hike in July. We might see some serious whipsaw for the rest of the week, I wouldn't chase the market. 4th of July week is usually pretty bullish, but then again this market isn't following any rules. Might roll into some calls again when RSI gets oversold, we'll see.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by hungry_hippo
Daily Market Update for 6/29Summary: GDP for Q1 was revised lower while investors are trying to calculate what possible moves the Fed will make to combat a recession. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 29, 2022 Facts: -0.03%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 69%, Body: 11% Green Good: Closing range above 40% Bad: A/D ratio, lower high and low Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: On neck candle where close is near a previous day which was long red (continuation candle) Advance/Decline: 0.42, more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.07%), DJI (+0.27%), RUT (-1.12%), VIX (-0.71%) Sector List: Health (XLV +0.87%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.63%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.72%) and Energy (XLE -3.48%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview GDP for Q1 was revised lower while investors are trying to calculate what possible moves the Fed will make to combat a recession. The Nasdaq declined by -0.03%. Volume was higher than the previous day. The on-neck candle has a thin green body that opens and closes near yesterday's close, signaling a continuation in a downtrend. The continuation will be confirmed if tomorrow's low breaks today's low. The closing range of 69% comes above a longer lower wick which formed right at the open of the market. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) held onto gains for the day, rising by +0.27%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell by only -0.07% while the Russell 2000 (RUT) declined by -1.12%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -0.71%. Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Health (XLV +0.87%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.63%) led the gaining sectors. Materials (XLB -0.72%) and Energy (XLE -3.48%) had the biggest losses for the day. Energy followed Brent Oil prices lower. GDP growth for Q1 was revised to -1.6% compared to the previous calculation of -1.5%. GDP Price Index Data was also revised, rising to 8.3% from the previous measure of 8.1%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by +0.59%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all moved lower. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Brent Oil prices declined by -1.63% to $111.69 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 1.26. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into the Extreme Fear range. Four of the big six mega-caps gained today. Meta (FB) had the biggest gain of the six, advancing by +2.03%. Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined by -1.79% and -0.28% respectively. Meta was the top gainer in the broader mega-cap list as well. The biggest loser in the list was Exxon Mobil (XOM), which declined by -3.69%. Digital Turbine (APPS) received some positive reviews from analysts, helping it top the Daily Update Growth List by gaining +5.76%. At the bottom of the list was Lemonade (LMND) which lost -7.28% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Our next look at inflation comes in the morning with the release of the PCE Price Index and Personal Spending data for May. We will also get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for Jun will be released after the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dipped after the open but then recovered and traded in a tight range the rest of the day, closing near yesterday's close. If the index returns to the trend line from the 6/16 low, that would mean a +3.28% advance. The five-day trend line points to a +0.88% gain for Thursday. The one-day trend line is flat and points to a +0.2% gain for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market continues to show uncertainty over future economic growth. More companies are beginning to scale back labor and purchases, adding more worries to the list. That's all bad news, but now it also has some analysts predicting a 2023 rate cut from the Fed to fight against recession. Although Treasury bond prices rose, Corporate junk bond prices declined, signaling a move to safe-havens. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/28Summary: Consumer Confidence data shocked investors as it hit a 16-month low and raised worries over slower economic growth. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 28, 2022 Facts: -2.98%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 1%, Body: 79% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Drop below 21d EMA, higher volume, closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Huge red body below a long upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.26, four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.01%), DJI (-1.56%), RUT (-1.86%), VIX (+5.23%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.70%) and Utilities (XLU -0.37%) at the top. Technology (XLK -3.00%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.99%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Consumer Confidence data shocked investors as it hit a 16-month low and raised worries over slower economic growth. The Nasdaq fell by -2.98% with higher volume than the previous day. The 79% red body is below a long upper wick which formed right at the open before the economic data was available. The market sold off the rest of the day, leaving the Nasdaq with a 1% closing range. There were four declining stocks for every 1 advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) was the next worst-hit index, falling by -2.01%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined by -1.86%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) closed the day -1.56% lower. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +5.23%. Only one of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Energy (XLE) followed oil prices higher and closed up by +2.70%. The worst two sectors for today were Technology (XLK -3.00%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.99%). CB Consumer Confidence came in at 98.7, lower than the forecast of 110.4. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock showed much higher demand than expected with inventories falling by -3.799 million barrels compared to the expectation of -0.110 million barrels. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to +0.52%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices moved opposite of Treasuries, declining for the day. Brent Oil rose to $113.54 a barrel. The put/call ratio ended the day at 0.810. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to the edge of Extreme Fear. All big six mega-caps declined. Meta (FB) had the biggest decline, falling by -5.20%. Apple (AAPL) had the smallest decline, but still lost -2.98% of its value today. Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) topped the broader mega-cap list, advancing by +2.77% and +1.61%. Nvidia (NVDA) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, falling by -5.26%. The entire Daily Update Growth List declined today. Twitter (TWTR) held up the best, losing only -1.02% while much of the declined by more than 5%. Peloton (PTON) had the biggest decline, losing -8.62% and landing at the bottom of the growth list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead An update on GDP numbers for Q1 will be released in the morning. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 9:00 am. Crude Oil Inventories get a weekly update after the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq fell back below the 21d EMA. If the index would return to the trend line from the 6/16 low, that would require a +4.53% gain. The gain required to get back to the five-day trend line is only slightly better, requiring a +3.69% gain. If the one-day trend line were to continue into Wednesday, that would mean another -4.14% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Big tech and growth stocks took another hit as Consumer Confidence dips on inflation worries. The US Dollar's continued strength relative to other currencies is also a headwind for large multinationals who need to repatriate a large portion of their revenues, bringing the forecast for top line and bottom line performance down. The lower market outlook for US companies is reflected in the widening gap between Corporate bond yields and Treasury bond yields. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/27 Summary: After one of the best weekly gains of the year, the index kicked this week off with a pullback. Growth stocks led stocks lower, but small caps held onto gains for the day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 27, 2022 Facts: -0.72%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 20%, Body: 72% Red Good: Stay above 21d EMA, higher high, higher low, volume lower on decline Bad: Closing range Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Thick red body between small upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.78, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.30%), DJI (-0.20%), RUT (+0.34%), VIX (-1.03%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.93%) and Utilities (XLU +0.81%) at the top. Communications (XLC -0.95%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.05%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview After one of the best weekly gains of the year, the index kicked this week off with a pullback. Growth stocks led stocks lower, but small caps held onto gains for the day. The Nasdaq declined by -0.72% after gaining +7.49% last week. Volume was much lower than Friday's 80% surge in volume. The 73% red body sits below a tiny upper wick and slightly longer lower wick. The index started the day with gains, but then moved lower, ending with a closing range of 18%. There were more declining than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) held onto gains for the day, advancing by +0.34%. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed -0.30% lower and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.20%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -1.03%. Only three of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained today. Energy (XLE +2.93%) and Utilities (XLU +0.81%) were the top two sectors. Communications (XLC -0.95%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.05%) had the largest declines. Durable Goods Orders in May were higher than expected, rising 0.7% month-over-month compared to the expectation of 0.1%. Pending Home Sales for May were expected to decline by -3.7% but instead rose by 0.7%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined by -0.17%. US 30Y, 10Y, and 2Y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Brent Oil rose by +2.36% and topped $110 a barrel again after new sanctions against Russia were proposed. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.761. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is back in the Fear range after being in Extreme Fear early last week. The NAAIM Money Manager Exposure index dropped to 19.86 last week. All big six mega-caps declined today. Of the six, only Meta (FB) is below its 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOG) is the only of the big six above both the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Exxon Mobile (XOM) was the top mega-cap of the day, gaining by +2.45% as oil prices rose again. Amazon (AMZN) was at the bottom of the broader mega-cap list, declining by -2.78%. Most of the Daily Update Growth List declined today, but there were some gainers. RobinHood (HOOD) had the best gain, advancing by +14.00% after an upgrade by Goldman Sachs. Sea Limited (SE) was at the bottom of the growth list with a -6.74% decline today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead CB Consumer Confidence for June will publish after the market opens. We will also get the Goods Trade Balance and Retail Inventories for May. Later in the afternoon, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will publish. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rallied in the first few minutes of the market but then faded the rest of the day. The low held well above the 21d EMA. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would meet up with the trend line from the 6/16 low and result in a +1.92% gain for Tuesday. The one-day trend line leads to a -0.32% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up After the massive volume on Friday and the weekly gains of over 7%, it's not a huge concern if the market pulls back a bit. The low of the day is well above the low of last Friday and volume was lower as the index declined. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
$RUT Canary in the Coal MineThe Russell 2k tends to be a solid indicator of broader market movement. While we have realized a correction of ~33%, given the broader macro headwinds... this is not nearly the level expected relative to past major corrections (dot.com & housing market). Given the past major corrections of 47% and 60%, not including the global pandemic shutdown it's apparent theres further markdown market behavior ahead. At the least, expecting a pullback to the 100 EMA is minimum expected while pullback to the 200 EMA with a further wick down from there is not outside of reason. The Fed has only recently begun QT with Central Bank balance sheets letting securities roll off as they mature. With the Fed hyper-focused on inflation with demand side tools at their disposal, the bearish case remains firmly in place right now. In addition to rates, unemployment is part of the Fed's dual mandate. Given the sheer # of available jobs (2 jobs for each unemployed person in the US), the Fed has plenty of room to focus on reigning in inflation to achieve price stability. Will there be bear market rallies? Yes. Will the Fed pivot? Possibly... especially given mid-term elections this fall. Q2 closes next week, earnings will start pouring in... until the Fed changes narrative and there's substantive change, principal preservation should be the priority with a risk-off focus unless one is highly skilled at trading during extreme volatility.
TVC:RUTShort
by R0MM3LL
Daily Market Update for 6/17Summary: Big tech and growth stocks recovered some of the heavy losses from Thursday's selling. The bounce comes at the end of one of the worst weeks in the market since the start of the pandemic. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 17, 2022 Facts: +1.43%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 65%, Body: 41% Green Good: Gain on higher volume, closing range good Bad: A/D ratio, long upper wick Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Small body under a longer upper wick, short lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.32, three declining for every advancing stock. Indexes: SPX (+0.22%), DJI (-0.13%), RUT (+0.96%), VIX (-5.52%) Sector List: Communications (XLC +1.43%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.09%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.93%) and Energy (XLE -5.47%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Big tech and growth stocks recovered some of the heavy losses from Thursday's selling. The bounce comes at the end of one of the worst weeks in the market since the start of the pandemic. The Nasdaq rose by +1.43%. Volume was at its highest since March. The rally reached the intraday high and then subdued, leaving behind a longer upper wick and a 65% closing range over a 41% green body. The gains were not broadly shared. For every advancing stock, there were three declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.96%. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by just +0.22% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.13%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -5.52% but remains elevated. Only five of the S&P 500 sectors gained. Communications (XLC +1.43%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.09%) were the top gainers, while Utilities (XLU -0.93%) and Energy (XLE -5.47%) had the biggest declines. Industrial Production for May grew by only 0.2% compared to the expectation of 0.4%. The US Dollar strengthened with the index (DXY) rising by +0.82%. US30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Brent Oil fell sharply to $111.43 a barrel. The fall in oil prices sent the Energy (XLE) sector lower. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum were all lower for the day. The put/call ratio rose to 1.24, another high reading at the close. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is in Extreme Fear. The NAAIM Money Manager Index fell to 32.18 from 50 last week. All of the big six mega-caps gained Friday. Amazon (AMZN) gained +2.47% for the day, beating the other five. Microsoft (MSFT) had the smallest gain but still rose by +1.09%. The big six topped the broader mega-cap list along with Nvidia (NVDA) which gained by +1.79% today. At the bottom of the mega-cap list were Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) which fell by -4.57% and -5.77%. Growth stocks did well today. The Daily Update Growth List has only three declining stocks. The biggest gain was by Enphase (ENPH) which rose by +8.94%. Just behind it was another new energy stock, Solar Edge (SEDG) which climbed by +8.44%. UP Fintech (TIGR) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -4.03%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets will be closed on Monday for the Juneteenth holiday. On Tuesday morning, we will get the Existing Home Sales data for May. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq opened with a whipsaw action in the morning before climbing to the intraday high in the early afternoon. If the one-day trend line continues into Tuesday, we can expect a +1.35%. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -0.75% decline. A return to the trend line from the 6/2 high would mean a -4.19% decline to start the short week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The gain on high volume is positive for the Nasdaq, but it was confined to a small percentage of stocks in the index. We need those gains to be shared more broadly across the index to build support for further improvements. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
THE HUNT FOR "A" BOTTOM?Are you hunting for a bottom in stocks? Were you bullish 6 months ago but have now turned bearish? Are your trading decisions influenced by your feelings and 'current events'? There is a tremendous amount of information written right here on the charts if you know how to look for it. I will help you to see this. The best advice I can give is this: Do not make trading decisions based on what you think "should" be. Do not allow your anger and emotions into this game. You are not going to change the trend. Do not tie "news" to "price". The market is way ahead of what you believe is 'news'. I will not play the game of "I told you so" but if you follow my TradingView ideas I shared several warnings for a few months about what I was seeing and it looked concerning. So for me personally, whatever dark and terrible news I have bombarding me from any electronic device is actually good news for my trading. It's not wise to trade strictly against sentiment because sentiment and price often move together for a while. But it is useful as an indicator. The put:call ratio is such an example.. as seen on this chart. Also observe the rate of change at the top. It can serve as a clue as to when we are about to see a very big move within a short period of time. We are at such a place where it looks like it has the potential to bounce. This could actually be very bearish or very bullish. But price is likely about to make a series of large moves in both directions. It is my opinion that we are at or very near "A" bottom of some kind. But don't misinterpret what I'm saying. Firstly, I am saying "A" bottom of some kind. It could be medium-short term. Secondly, when I say at or near I am referring to time. So maybe now.. this week or next. I don't know. But price can move severely within that time period. Using the Fibonacci retracement levels, I see a few key levels in the S&P 500. Watch the .786. Watch the .618. Watch this zone at 0.5. My original target for a correction were the two horizontal lines at about 3200-3600. Price is within my crosshairs now. Where and when you buy is important but also HOW you buy. You do not want to chase the falling knife and back yourself into a corner where you are desperate and pressed. Yes I have been there. In my experience it is best to ease into positions that you have a lot of good evidence for. Slowly.. easily.. carefully. If you like options, consider giving yourself a LOT more time to build into a position and also consider how severely options decay. It's not unwise to go out a year or more on expirations so you're not trapped on the very steep decay. Those are just a few tips I can share. Stay tuned because I will be posting more information here about current market conditions and potential pivots. I posted this in December to demonstrate some early warnings for what is currently happening.
SP:SPX
by gghsusa
Daily Market Update for 6/15Summary: The Fed increased interest rates by 75 basis points as many expected after last week's inflation data. Initially, the market dipped, but then a rally came after Jerome Powel's comments following the rate hike. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 15, 2022 Facts: +2.50%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 62%, Body: 35% Green Good: Advance on higher volume, closing range, A/D ratio Bad: Long upper wick after buying slowed Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Medium body in center of candle, longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 1.98, two advancing for every one declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.46%), DJI (+1.00%), RUT (+1.36%), VIX (-9.39%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.81%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.29%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.03%) and Energy (XLE -2.21%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Fed increased interest rates by 75 basis points as many expected after last week's inflation data. Initially, the market dipped, but then a rally came after Jerome Powel's comments following the rate hike. The Nasdaq advanced +2.50% on higher volume than the previous session. The candle has a 35% green body underneath a longer upper wick and a 62% closing range. Both the lower wick and upper wick came after the Fed's interest rate decision. The lower wick formed on the decision and the upper wick formed after public comments by Jerome Powell. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) was the second-best index, rising by +1.46% today. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced by +1.36%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose by +1.00%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -9.39%. Nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.81%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.29%) were at the top. Materials (XLB -0.03%) and Energy (XLE -2.21%) were the two losing sectors. The decline in Energy was likely related ot the decline in Brent Oil prices. Core Retail Sales, which excludes automobiles, grew by 0.5% in May compared to the expectation of 0.8%. Including automobiles, total Retail Sales declined by -0.3% . The Export Price Index rose by 2.8% while the Import Price Index declined by -0.6%, the impact coming from the strong US Dollar. Crude Oil Inventories were higher than expected, rising by 1.96 million barrels. The forecast was for a -1.314 million barrel shortage. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined by -0.6%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined as the yield curve continues to recover from its inversion earlier this week. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices both followed Treasury bond prices higher and the spread between corporate junk bonds and short-term treasuries narrowed. Brent Oil dropped to $116 a barrel. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum prices rose after selling off sharply for several days. The put/call ratio dipped below 0.7 but then ended the day at 0.933. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Extreme Fear range. All big six mega-caps gained. Tesla (TSLA) led the gains with a +5.48% advance, followed closely by Amazon (AMZN) which gained by +5.24%. All six charts showed good gains on higher volume, but there is still much work to do before showing any strength. Tesla and Amazon were also the top stocks in the broader mega-cap list, followed by Nvidia (NVDA) which gained by +4.36%. The big energy companies of Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) were at the bottom of the list, declining by -1.26% and -1.96% respectively. There were only five declining stocks on the list. All but two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained today. Beyond Meat (BYND) was the top stock on the list, soaring by +13.95%. Many of the top gainers in the list today were stocks that were the most beaten down in recent months. RobinHood (HOOD) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -2.49%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts for May will be published tomorrow morning. We will also get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June. Adobe (ADBE), Kroger (KR), and Jabil (JBL) will release their earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq opened with a gap-up but filled the gap after the interest rate decision. The index then had a quick rally after the public statement by Jerome Powell. If the one-day trend line continued into Thursday, that would mean a +1.13% gain. The steep five-day trend line points to a -4.35% decline. The trend line from the 6/2 high is even steeper, pointing to a -6.33% decline for Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Is the rally after the Fed interest rate hike good news for investors? Let's wait and see. Last month, the market rallied in the afternoon following the Fed's interest rate decision. And then it dumped for two days. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
RTY MFI almost overboughtGeez, it would have been an easier trade if they left everything oversold until the Fed meeting. All indicators neutral except RTY MFI is almost overbought. ES overlay suggests we could see another dip before the meeting tomorrow. Flipped my COIN puts on open for a wash this time because I saw the Euros were pumping futures. Staying cash until tomorrow morning, might just wait until after the press conf to confirm the next pump, lol. Keep in mind there is still a gap above.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by hungry_hippo
3
Daily Market Update for 6/14Summary: A wait-and-see day ended with a further dip across the market, but a bounce in technology stocks helped the Nasdaq end the day with a gain. Investors' full attention is on the Fed's rate-hike decision on Wednesday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 14, 2022 Facts: +0.18%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 49%, Body: 36% Red Good: Ok closing range Bad: Lower high, lower low, A/D ratio weak Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin red body in upper half of candle, long lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.61, three advancing for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.38%), DJI (-0.50%), RUT (-0.39%), VIX (-3.91%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +0.63%) and Energy (XLE +0.19%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.18%) and Utilities (XLU -2.53%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A wait-and-see day ended with a further dip across the market, but a bounce in technology stocks helped the Nasdaq end the day with a gain. Investors' full attention is on the Fed's rate-hike decision on Wednesday. Nasdaq advanced by +0.18%. Volume was much lower than the previous day as most investors are waiting for Wednesday's Fed meeting. A 36% red body sits above a long lower wick that formed late in the session as the index dipped to a lower low before recovering some of the losses and ending with a 49% closing range. There were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The other major indexes retreated further. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.50%. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.38%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell by -0.39%. The VIX Volatility Index retreated from its high level the previous day, declining by -3.91% today. Two of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Technology (XLK +0.63%) and Energy (XLE +0.19%) had the gains after steep declines yesterday. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.18%) and Utilities (XLU -2.53%) had the biggest declines today. Produce Price Index data didn't do much to reduce fears over inflation, but it didn't add any fuel to the fire. The Core PPI came in a 0.5% month-over-month compared to the forecast of 0.6%. Total PPI, which includes food and energy, matched the expectation of a 0.8% month-over-month increase. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued its climb, rising by +0.26% today. The Yield curve nearly reverted from yesterday's inversion but is still at a very narrow spread. The 30y, 10y, and 2y yields all dipped and the 2y yield dropped back below the 30y yield. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose for the day but Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices continued to fall. Brent Oil is back below $120 a barrel. Timber and Copper/Aluminum Futures continue to fall. The put/call ratio (PCCE) remained bearish but fell to 1.09. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Extreme Fear range. Four of the big six mega-caps gained. Tesla (TSLA) had the biggest gain with a +2.39% advance today. Amazon (AMZN) declined by -1.31% today. Alibaba (BABA) continues to swing up and down, finding itself at the top of the broader mega-cap list today with a +6.81% gain. Coca-Cola Company (KO) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -3.44%. The top four gaining stocks in the Daily Update Growth List were Chinese companies. NIO Technologies (NIO) topped the list with a +16.70% gain. At least half of the list advanced today. RH (RH) had the biggest loss, declining by -4.91%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Several economic indicators will publish in the morning. Retail Sales and Export/Import Price Index for May are due before the market opens. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due after the market opens. None of those will likely impact market direction. Investors are waiting for the Fed Interest Rate Decision which will come at 14:00. That will be followed by closely-watched remarks from Jerome Powell as he carefully lands their economic assessment and Fed strategy to control inflation without causing a recession. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set a lower low in the afternoon before recovering enough to gain for the day. If the one-day trend line continues, it will result in a -0.13% decline for Wednesday. The trend line from the 6/2 high points to a -1.19% decline. Following the five-day trend lien would result in a -5.89% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We wait for the Fed. Then we wait for the market reaction. Some analysts see a 75 basis point increase as a good thing that the Fed is willing to follow the data instead of a pre-determined plan. Others see such a rate hike as guaranteeing a recession. So it is not clear whether the market reaction will be good or bad to a 50 basis point increase nor whether it will be good or bad with a 75 basis point increase. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
4
Daily Market Update for 6/13Summary: Markets capitulated in grandiose style with eleven stocks declining for every advancing stock on the Nasdaq. Both stock and bond prices dropped sharply as worries about inflation grew. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 13, 2022 Facts: -4.68%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 12%, Body: 60% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Everything Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Gap down leads to thick red body and small tiny wick with low closing range Advance/Decline: 0.09, more than eleven stocks decline for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-3.88%), DJI (-2.79%), RUT (-4.76%), VIX (+22.59%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP -2.16%) and Financials (XLF -2.98%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -4.81%) and Energy (XLE -5.22%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets capitulated in grandiose style with eleven stocks declining for every advancing stock on the Nasdaq. Both stock and bond prices dropped sharply as worries about inflation grew. The Nasdaq fell by -4.68% on higher volume than the previous trading day. The index opened with a gap-down for the second day and proceeded to sell off creating a thick red body with a short lower wick. The 60% red body is below a short upper wick created just after the opening. A tiny lower wick was left after a 12% closing range. There were more than eleven stocks that declined for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) did even worse, declining by -4.76%. Both the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 are more than 30% lower than their all-time-highs. The S&P 500 (SPX) entered a bear market with a -3.88% decline today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -2.79%. The VIX Volatility Index soared by +22.59%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. Consumer Staples (XLP -2.16%) and Financials (XLF -2.98%) were the best performing but still declined by more than 2%. Real Estate (XLRE -4.81%) and Energy (XLE -5.22%) were at the bottom of the list. The US Dollar Index (DXY) made a new high, rising by +0.97% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields rose sharply as bonds sold off. The yield curve inverted once again, reflecting the poor outlook analysts have for the near-term economy. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices dumped as well and the gap between junk bonds and treasury bonds grew to its widest since 2020. The put/call ratio rose to 1.36. That's the highest closing level since March of 2020. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into Extreme Fear. All big six mega-caps fell. Tesla (TSLA) had the biggest loss, declining by -7.10%. Apple (AAPL) held up the best but still lost by -3.83%. None of the stocks in the broader mega-cap list gained. Coca-cola (KO) performed the best, declining only -0.11%. Alibaba (BABA) was the biggest loser, declining by -10.31% to land at the bottom of the list. Beyond Meat (BYND) topped the Daily Update Growth List, but still declined by -2.58%. Only five stocks on the list declined less than 5%. DraftKings (DKNG) had the biggest loss, declining by -15.80%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead We'll get Producer Price Index data tomorrow which is a forward-looking measure of inflation. Producers pass higher prices along to consumers. API Weekly Crude Oil stock comes in the afternoon. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dropped below 11,000 early in the session and continued lower. This is the first close below 11,000 since October 2020. If the index returns to the downward regression trend line from the 6/2 high, that would require a +1.97% advance for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a -0.67% decline. Following the five-day trend line, would result in a -1.61% decline for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Ouch. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/10Summary: Inflation data came in worse than expected sending stock and bond prices falling. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 10, 2022 Facts: -3.52%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 5%, Body: 85% Red Good: Lower volume on decline Bad: Gap down, low closing range, advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Gap down at open, mostly red body Advance/Decline: 0.18, more than five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.91%), DJI (-2.73%), RUT (-2.73%), VIX (+6.36%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP -0.43%) and Utilities (XLU -0.77%) at the top. Technology (XLK -3.84%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.99%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Inflation data came in worse than expected sending stock and bond prices falling. The Nasdaq lost -3.52%. Volume was lower than the previous day, but the gap-down and low closing range of 5% represented a broad sell-off where five stocks declined for every advancing stock. The 85% red body left behind a small upper and lower wick. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was hit the worst. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell by -2.91%, also weighed down by the tech mega-caps. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) both declined by -2.73%. The VIX Volatility index rose by +6.36%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. The defensive sectors of ] Consumer Staples (XLP -0.43%) and Utilities (XLU -0.77%) held up the best. The growth sectors of Technology (XLK -3.84%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.99%) had the worst declines. The Core Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and gas, rose by 6.0% year-over-year. The expectation was 5.9%. Adding back in food and gas and the CPI rose 8.6% year-over-year compared to the expectation of 8.3%. Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell to 50.2, from the previous level of 58.4. The expectation was 58.0. Consumer Expectations also fell more than expected, coming in at 46.8 compared to the expectation of 54.5. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by +0.85%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. The gap between long-term and short-term yields narrowed sharply. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices both declined, giving back all the gains over the past few weeks. Brent Oil fell to $120 a barrel. Timber (WOOD) fell to its lowest point since the end of 2020. Copper and Aluminum Futures were also sharply lower. The put/call ratio ended the day at 1.13, a bearish reading. The CNN Fear & Greed Index fell back toward Extreme Fear but ended the day in the Fear range. All big six mega-caps declined. Amazon (AMZN) had the biggest loss, declining by -5.60%. Alphabet (GOOG) had the smallest loss of the six but still declined by -3.04%. Only one mega-cap in the broader list advanced today. Walmart (WMT) closed the day with a +0.56% gain. The biggest loser on the list was Nvidia (NVDA) which declined by 5.95%. JD.com (JD) was the only stock in the Daily Update Growth List that gained on Friday. DocuSign (DOCU) fell by -24.53% after missing earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. Investors will be awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday which is expected to by a 50 basis point increase. Oracle (ORCL) will release earnings on Monday after the closing bell. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq gapped down and then hit the daily low in the morning. A rally in the afternoon failed, resulting in a low closing range. If the index returns to the trend line from the 6/3 high, that would mean a +1.83% gain for Monday. The five-day and one-day trend lines both point to a +0.26% gain to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Ouch. Inflation data was worse than expected and the worst year-over-year price increases since the early 1980s. Produce Price Index data comes out on Tuesday and that may help ease some fears if it's better than expected. But don't get your hopes up. The real influence will come on Wednesday when the Fed will need to explain how it can control inflation without putting the economy in recession. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/9Summary: Sellers took charge again as investor fears over inflation took hold ahead of the Consumer Price Index data due on Friday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 9, 2022 Facts: -2.75%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 1%, Body: 72% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Broad declines on higher volume, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Large red body under a medium upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.25, four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.38%), DJI (-1.94%), RUT (-2.12%), VIX (+8.89%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP -1.50%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.81%) at the top. Technology (XLK -2.67%) and Communications (XLC -3.07%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Sellers took charge again as investor fears over inflation took hold ahead of the Consumer Price Index data due on Friday. The Nasdaq fell by -2.75%, dropping below a channel that formed over the previous eight days. Volume was higher than the previous day. The 72% red body sits under an upper wick that formed in the early morning. The closing range of 1% came as selling accelerated in the late afternoon. There were four declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -2.38%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -2.12%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -1.94%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) rose by +8.89%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.50%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.81%) had the smallest declines. Technology (XLK -2.67%) and Communications (XLC -3.07%) were the worst performers. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 229,000 compared to the expected 210,000. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by +0.74%. The US 30y Treasury Yield declined while the 10y and 2y yields rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Timber (WOOD) declined sharply on Thursday. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.823. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Extreme Fear but is still in the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 50 from 34.3 the previous week. All big six mega-caps declined and all closed back below their 21d EMA. Meta (FB) had the biggest decline, falling by -6.43%. Tesla (TSLA) dropped by only -0.89% but lost gains from an early morning rally. Only two mega-caps in the broader list had gains today. Costco (COST) and Home Depot (HD) advanced by +0.87% and +0.78%, respectively. After topping the list for several days in the past week, Alibaba (BABA) dropped to the bottom of the list, declining by -8.13% today. The Daily Update Growth List also had only two gaining stocks. Chewy (CHWY) topped the list with a +2.62% gain. The biggest loser on the list was Block (SQ), which declined by -9.64%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Price Index data arrives in the morning before the market opens. After trading starts, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and Consumer Expectations data will be released. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Just as I set a new support area at 12,000 on the chart, the Nasdaq fell below the line today breaking lower from an eight-day tight trading range. The index moved below the 12,000 area and closed below the 21d EMA. If the index is to return to the trend line from the 5/20 low, that would require a +5.37% gain which is not likely. If we can get back to the five-day trend line, that would mean a +2.32% gain. If the one-day trend line continues into Friday, that would result in a -1.59%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up All we can do now is wait for the CPI data for May. It could be investors priced in the bad news today because of the inflation warning from the ECB. If the data is higher than expected, we can expect more downward movement. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321