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RUSSELL 2000

Daily Market Update for 6/17Summary: Big tech and growth stocks recovered some of the heavy losses from Thursday's selling. The bounce comes at the end of one of the worst weeks in the market since the start of the pandemic. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 17, 2022 Facts: +1.43%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 65%, Body: 41% Green Good: Gain on higher volume, closing range good Bad: A/D ratio, long upper wick Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Small body under a longer upper wick, short lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.32, three declining for every advancing stock. Indexes: SPX (+0.22%), DJI (-0.13%), RUT (+0.96%), VIX (-5.52%) Sector List: Communications (XLC +1.43%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.09%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.93%) and Energy (XLE -5.47%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Big tech and growth stocks recovered some of the heavy losses from Thursday's selling. The bounce comes at the end of one of the worst weeks in the market since the start of the pandemic. The Nasdaq rose by +1.43%. Volume was at its highest since March. The rally reached the intraday high and then subdued, leaving behind a longer upper wick and a 65% closing range over a 41% green body. The gains were not broadly shared. For every advancing stock, there were three declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.96%. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by just +0.22% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.13%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -5.52% but remains elevated. Only five of the S&P 500 sectors gained. Communications (XLC +1.43%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.09%) were the top gainers, while Utilities (XLU -0.93%) and Energy (XLE -5.47%) had the biggest declines. Industrial Production for May grew by only 0.2% compared to the expectation of 0.4%. The US Dollar strengthened with the index (DXY) rising by +0.82%. US30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Brent Oil fell sharply to $111.43 a barrel. The fall in oil prices sent the Energy (XLE) sector lower. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum were all lower for the day. The put/call ratio rose to 1.24, another high reading at the close. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is in Extreme Fear. The NAAIM Money Manager Index fell to 32.18 from 50 last week. All of the big six mega-caps gained Friday. Amazon (AMZN) gained +2.47% for the day, beating the other five. Microsoft (MSFT) had the smallest gain but still rose by +1.09%. The big six topped the broader mega-cap list along with Nvidia (NVDA) which gained by +1.79% today. At the bottom of the mega-cap list were Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) which fell by -4.57% and -5.77%. Growth stocks did well today. The Daily Update Growth List has only three declining stocks. The biggest gain was by Enphase (ENPH) which rose by +8.94%. Just behind it was another new energy stock, Solar Edge (SEDG) which climbed by +8.44%. UP Fintech (TIGR) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -4.03%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets will be closed on Monday for the Juneteenth holiday. On Tuesday morning, we will get the Existing Home Sales data for May. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq opened with a whipsaw action in the morning before climbing to the intraday high in the early afternoon. If the one-day trend line continues into Tuesday, we can expect a +1.35%. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that would mean a -0.75% decline. A return to the trend line from the 6/2 high would mean a -4.19% decline to start the short week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The gain on high volume is positive for the Nasdaq, but it was confined to a small percentage of stocks in the index. We need those gains to be shared more broadly across the index to build support for further improvements. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
THE HUNT FOR "A" BOTTOM?Are you hunting for a bottom in stocks? Were you bullish 6 months ago but have now turned bearish? Are your trading decisions influenced by your feelings and 'current events'? There is a tremendous amount of information written right here on the charts if you know how to look for it. I will help you to see this. The best advice I can give is this: Do not make trading decisions based on what you think "should" be. Do not allow your anger and emotions into this game. You are not going to change the trend. Do not tie "news" to "price". The market is way ahead of what you believe is 'news'. I will not play the game of "I told you so" but if you follow my TradingView ideas I shared several warnings for a few months about what I was seeing and it looked concerning. So for me personally, whatever dark and terrible news I have bombarding me from any electronic device is actually good news for my trading. It's not wise to trade strictly against sentiment because sentiment and price often move together for a while. But it is useful as an indicator. The put:call ratio is such an example.. as seen on this chart. Also observe the rate of change at the top. It can serve as a clue as to when we are about to see a very big move within a short period of time. We are at such a place where it looks like it has the potential to bounce. This could actually be very bearish or very bullish. But price is likely about to make a series of large moves in both directions. It is my opinion that we are at or very near "A" bottom of some kind. But don't misinterpret what I'm saying. Firstly, I am saying "A" bottom of some kind. It could be medium-short term. Secondly, when I say at or near I am referring to time. So maybe now.. this week or next. I don't know. But price can move severely within that time period. Using the Fibonacci retracement levels, I see a few key levels in the S&P 500. Watch the .786. Watch the .618. Watch this zone at 0.5. My original target for a correction were the two horizontal lines at about 3200-3600. Price is within my crosshairs now. Where and when you buy is important but also HOW you buy. You do not want to chase the falling knife and back yourself into a corner where you are desperate and pressed. Yes I have been there. In my experience it is best to ease into positions that you have a lot of good evidence for. Slowly.. easily.. carefully. If you like options, consider giving yourself a LOT more time to build into a position and also consider how severely options decay. It's not unwise to go out a year or more on expirations so you're not trapped on the very steep decay. Those are just a few tips I can share. Stay tuned because I will be posting more information here about current market conditions and potential pivots. I posted this in December to demonstrate some early warnings for what is currently happening.
SP:SPX
by gghsusa
Daily Market Update for 6/15Summary: The Fed increased interest rates by 75 basis points as many expected after last week's inflation data. Initially, the market dipped, but then a rally came after Jerome Powel's comments following the rate hike. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 15, 2022 Facts: +2.50%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 62%, Body: 35% Green Good: Advance on higher volume, closing range, A/D ratio Bad: Long upper wick after buying slowed Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Medium body in center of candle, longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 1.98, two advancing for every one declining stock Indexes: SPX (+1.46%), DJI (+1.00%), RUT (+1.36%), VIX (-9.39%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.81%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.29%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.03%) and Energy (XLE -2.21%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Fed increased interest rates by 75 basis points as many expected after last week's inflation data. Initially, the market dipped, but then a rally came after Jerome Powel's comments following the rate hike. The Nasdaq advanced +2.50% on higher volume than the previous session. The candle has a 35% green body underneath a longer upper wick and a 62% closing range. Both the lower wick and upper wick came after the Fed's interest rate decision. The lower wick formed on the decision and the upper wick formed after public comments by Jerome Powell. There were two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) was the second-best index, rising by +1.46% today. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced by +1.36%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose by +1.00%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -9.39%. Nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.81%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.29%) were at the top. Materials (XLB -0.03%) and Energy (XLE -2.21%) were the two losing sectors. The decline in Energy was likely related ot the decline in Brent Oil prices. Core Retail Sales, which excludes automobiles, grew by 0.5% in May compared to the expectation of 0.8%. Including automobiles, total Retail Sales declined by -0.3% . The Export Price Index rose by 2.8% while the Import Price Index declined by -0.6%, the impact coming from the strong US Dollar. Crude Oil Inventories were higher than expected, rising by 1.96 million barrels. The forecast was for a -1.314 million barrel shortage. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined by -0.6%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined as the yield curve continues to recover from its inversion earlier this week. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices both followed Treasury bond prices higher and the spread between corporate junk bonds and short-term treasuries narrowed. Brent Oil dropped to $116 a barrel. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum prices rose after selling off sharply for several days. The put/call ratio dipped below 0.7 but then ended the day at 0.933. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in the Extreme Fear range. All big six mega-caps gained. Tesla (TSLA) led the gains with a +5.48% advance, followed closely by Amazon (AMZN) which gained by +5.24%. All six charts showed good gains on higher volume, but there is still much work to do before showing any strength. Tesla and Amazon were also the top stocks in the broader mega-cap list, followed by Nvidia (NVDA) which gained by +4.36%. The big energy companies of Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) were at the bottom of the list, declining by -1.26% and -1.96% respectively. There were only five declining stocks on the list. All but two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained today. Beyond Meat (BYND) was the top stock on the list, soaring by +13.95%. Many of the top gainers in the list today were stocks that were the most beaten down in recent months. RobinHood (HOOD) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -2.49%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Building Permits and Housing Starts for May will be published tomorrow morning. We will also get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June. Adobe (ADBE), Kroger (KR), and Jabil (JBL) will release their earnings on Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq opened with a gap-up but filled the gap after the interest rate decision. The index then had a quick rally after the public statement by Jerome Powell. If the one-day trend line continued into Thursday, that would mean a +1.13% gain. The steep five-day trend line points to a -4.35% decline. The trend line from the 6/2 high is even steeper, pointing to a -6.33% decline for Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Is the rally after the Fed interest rate hike good news for investors? Let's wait and see. Last month, the market rallied in the afternoon following the Fed's interest rate decision. And then it dumped for two days. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
RTY MFI almost overboughtGeez, it would have been an easier trade if they left everything oversold until the Fed meeting. All indicators neutral except RTY MFI is almost overbought. ES overlay suggests we could see another dip before the meeting tomorrow. Flipped my COIN puts on open for a wash this time because I saw the Euros were pumping futures. Staying cash until tomorrow morning, might just wait until after the press conf to confirm the next pump, lol. Keep in mind there is still a gap above.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by hungry_hippo
3
Daily Market Update for 6/14Summary: A wait-and-see day ended with a further dip across the market, but a bounce in technology stocks helped the Nasdaq end the day with a gain. Investors' full attention is on the Fed's rate-hike decision on Wednesday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 14, 2022 Facts: +0.18%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 49%, Body: 36% Red Good: Ok closing range Bad: Lower high, lower low, A/D ratio weak Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thin red body in upper half of candle, long lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.61, three advancing for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.38%), DJI (-0.50%), RUT (-0.39%), VIX (-3.91%) Sector List: Technology (XLK +0.63%) and Energy (XLE +0.19%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.18%) and Utilities (XLU -2.53%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A wait-and-see day ended with a further dip across the market, but a bounce in technology stocks helped the Nasdaq end the day with a gain. Investors' full attention is on the Fed's rate-hike decision on Wednesday. Nasdaq advanced by +0.18%. Volume was much lower than the previous day as most investors are waiting for Wednesday's Fed meeting. A 36% red body sits above a long lower wick that formed late in the session as the index dipped to a lower low before recovering some of the losses and ending with a 49% closing range. There were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The other major indexes retreated further. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.50%. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.38%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell by -0.39%. The VIX Volatility Index retreated from its high level the previous day, declining by -3.91% today. Two of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Technology (XLK +0.63%) and Energy (XLE +0.19%) had the gains after steep declines yesterday. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.18%) and Utilities (XLU -2.53%) had the biggest declines today. Produce Price Index data didn't do much to reduce fears over inflation, but it didn't add any fuel to the fire. The Core PPI came in a 0.5% month-over-month compared to the forecast of 0.6%. Total PPI, which includes food and energy, matched the expectation of a 0.8% month-over-month increase. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued its climb, rising by +0.26% today. The Yield curve nearly reverted from yesterday's inversion but is still at a very narrow spread. The 30y, 10y, and 2y yields all dipped and the 2y yield dropped back below the 30y yield. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose for the day but Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices continued to fall. Brent Oil is back below $120 a barrel. Timber and Copper/Aluminum Futures continue to fall. The put/call ratio (PCCE) remained bearish but fell to 1.09. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Extreme Fear range. Four of the big six mega-caps gained. Tesla (TSLA) had the biggest gain with a +2.39% advance today. Amazon (AMZN) declined by -1.31% today. Alibaba (BABA) continues to swing up and down, finding itself at the top of the broader mega-cap list today with a +6.81% gain. Coca-Cola Company (KO) was at the bottom of the list, declining by -3.44%. The top four gaining stocks in the Daily Update Growth List were Chinese companies. NIO Technologies (NIO) topped the list with a +16.70% gain. At least half of the list advanced today. RH (RH) had the biggest loss, declining by -4.91%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Several economic indicators will publish in the morning. Retail Sales and Export/Import Price Index for May are due before the market opens. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due after the market opens. None of those will likely impact market direction. Investors are waiting for the Fed Interest Rate Decision which will come at 14:00. That will be followed by closely-watched remarks from Jerome Powell as he carefully lands their economic assessment and Fed strategy to control inflation without causing a recession. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set a lower low in the afternoon before recovering enough to gain for the day. If the one-day trend line continues, it will result in a -0.13% decline for Wednesday. The trend line from the 6/2 high points to a -1.19% decline. Following the five-day trend lien would result in a -5.89% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We wait for the Fed. Then we wait for the market reaction. Some analysts see a 75 basis point increase as a good thing that the Fed is willing to follow the data instead of a pre-determined plan. Others see such a rate hike as guaranteeing a recession. So it is not clear whether the market reaction will be good or bad to a 50 basis point increase nor whether it will be good or bad with a 75 basis point increase. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
4
Daily Market Update for 6/13Summary: Markets capitulated in grandiose style with eleven stocks declining for every advancing stock on the Nasdaq. Both stock and bond prices dropped sharply as worries about inflation grew. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 13, 2022 Facts: -4.68%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 12%, Body: 60% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Everything Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Gap down leads to thick red body and small tiny wick with low closing range Advance/Decline: 0.09, more than eleven stocks decline for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-3.88%), DJI (-2.79%), RUT (-4.76%), VIX (+22.59%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP -2.16%) and Financials (XLF -2.98%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -4.81%) and Energy (XLE -5.22%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets capitulated in grandiose style with eleven stocks declining for every advancing stock on the Nasdaq. Both stock and bond prices dropped sharply as worries about inflation grew. The Nasdaq fell by -4.68% on higher volume than the previous trading day. The index opened with a gap-down for the second day and proceeded to sell off creating a thick red body with a short lower wick. The 60% red body is below a short upper wick created just after the opening. A tiny lower wick was left after a 12% closing range. There were more than eleven stocks that declined for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) did even worse, declining by -4.76%. Both the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 are more than 30% lower than their all-time-highs. The S&P 500 (SPX) entered a bear market with a -3.88% decline today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -2.79%. The VIX Volatility Index soared by +22.59%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. Consumer Staples (XLP -2.16%) and Financials (XLF -2.98%) were the best performing but still declined by more than 2%. Real Estate (XLRE -4.81%) and Energy (XLE -5.22%) were at the bottom of the list. The US Dollar Index (DXY) made a new high, rising by +0.97% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields rose sharply as bonds sold off. The yield curve inverted once again, reflecting the poor outlook analysts have for the near-term economy. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices dumped as well and the gap between junk bonds and treasury bonds grew to its widest since 2020. The put/call ratio rose to 1.36. That's the highest closing level since March of 2020. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into Extreme Fear. All big six mega-caps fell. Tesla (TSLA) had the biggest loss, declining by -7.10%. Apple (AAPL) held up the best but still lost by -3.83%. None of the stocks in the broader mega-cap list gained. Coca-cola (KO) performed the best, declining only -0.11%. Alibaba (BABA) was the biggest loser, declining by -10.31% to land at the bottom of the list. Beyond Meat (BYND) topped the Daily Update Growth List, but still declined by -2.58%. Only five stocks on the list declined less than 5%. DraftKings (DKNG) had the biggest loss, declining by -15.80%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead We'll get Producer Price Index data tomorrow which is a forward-looking measure of inflation. Producers pass higher prices along to consumers. API Weekly Crude Oil stock comes in the afternoon. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq dropped below 11,000 early in the session and continued lower. This is the first close below 11,000 since October 2020. If the index returns to the downward regression trend line from the 6/2 high, that would require a +1.97% advance for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a -0.67% decline. Following the five-day trend line, would result in a -1.61% decline for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Ouch. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/10Summary: Inflation data came in worse than expected sending stock and bond prices falling. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 10, 2022 Facts: -3.52%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 5%, Body: 85% Red Good: Lower volume on decline Bad: Gap down, low closing range, advance/decline ratio Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Gap down at open, mostly red body Advance/Decline: 0.18, more than five declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.91%), DJI (-2.73%), RUT (-2.73%), VIX (+6.36%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP -0.43%) and Utilities (XLU -0.77%) at the top. Technology (XLK -3.84%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.99%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Inflation data came in worse than expected sending stock and bond prices falling. The Nasdaq lost -3.52%. Volume was lower than the previous day, but the gap-down and low closing range of 5% represented a broad sell-off where five stocks declined for every advancing stock. The 85% red body left behind a small upper and lower wick. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was hit the worst. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell by -2.91%, also weighed down by the tech mega-caps. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) both declined by -2.73%. The VIX Volatility index rose by +6.36%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. The defensive sectors of ] Consumer Staples (XLP -0.43%) and Utilities (XLU -0.77%) held up the best. The growth sectors of Technology (XLK -3.84%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.99%) had the worst declines. The Core Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and gas, rose by 6.0% year-over-year. The expectation was 5.9%. Adding back in food and gas and the CPI rose 8.6% year-over-year compared to the expectation of 8.3%. Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell to 50.2, from the previous level of 58.4. The expectation was 58.0. Consumer Expectations also fell more than expected, coming in at 46.8 compared to the expectation of 54.5. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by +0.85%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. The gap between long-term and short-term yields narrowed sharply. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices both declined, giving back all the gains over the past few weeks. Brent Oil fell to $120 a barrel. Timber (WOOD) fell to its lowest point since the end of 2020. Copper and Aluminum Futures were also sharply lower. The put/call ratio ended the day at 1.13, a bearish reading. The CNN Fear & Greed Index fell back toward Extreme Fear but ended the day in the Fear range. All big six mega-caps declined. Amazon (AMZN) had the biggest loss, declining by -5.60%. Alphabet (GOOG) had the smallest loss of the six but still declined by -3.04%. Only one mega-cap in the broader list advanced today. Walmart (WMT) closed the day with a +0.56% gain. The biggest loser on the list was Nvidia (NVDA) which declined by 5.95%. JD.com (JD) was the only stock in the Daily Update Growth List that gained on Friday. DocuSign (DOCU) fell by -24.53% after missing earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. Investors will be awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday which is expected to by a 50 basis point increase. Oracle (ORCL) will release earnings on Monday after the closing bell. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq gapped down and then hit the daily low in the morning. A rally in the afternoon failed, resulting in a low closing range. If the index returns to the trend line from the 6/3 high, that would mean a +1.83% gain for Monday. The five-day and one-day trend lines both point to a +0.26% gain to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Ouch. Inflation data was worse than expected and the worst year-over-year price increases since the early 1980s. Produce Price Index data comes out on Tuesday and that may help ease some fears if it's better than expected. But don't get your hopes up. The real influence will come on Wednesday when the Fed will need to explain how it can control inflation without putting the economy in recession. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/9Summary: Sellers took charge again as investor fears over inflation took hold ahead of the Consumer Price Index data due on Friday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 9, 2022 Facts: -2.75%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 1%, Body: 72% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Broad declines on higher volume, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Large red body under a medium upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.25, four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-2.38%), DJI (-1.94%), RUT (-2.12%), VIX (+8.89%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP -1.50%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.81%) at the top. Technology (XLK -2.67%) and Communications (XLC -3.07%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Sellers took charge again as investor fears over inflation took hold ahead of the Consumer Price Index data due on Friday. The Nasdaq fell by -2.75%, dropping below a channel that formed over the previous eight days. Volume was higher than the previous day. The 72% red body sits under an upper wick that formed in the early morning. The closing range of 1% came as selling accelerated in the late afternoon. There were four declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -2.38%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -2.12%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell by -1.94%. The VIX Volatility Index (VIX) rose by +8.89%. All eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. Consumer Staples (XLP -1.50%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.81%) had the smallest declines. Technology (XLK -2.67%) and Communications (XLC -3.07%) were the worst performers. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 229,000 compared to the expected 210,000. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by +0.74%. The US 30y Treasury Yield declined while the 10y and 2y yields rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined. Timber (WOOD) declined sharply on Thursday. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.823. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Extreme Fear but is still in the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 50 from 34.3 the previous week. All big six mega-caps declined and all closed back below their 21d EMA. Meta (FB) had the biggest decline, falling by -6.43%. Tesla (TSLA) dropped by only -0.89% but lost gains from an early morning rally. Only two mega-caps in the broader list had gains today. Costco (COST) and Home Depot (HD) advanced by +0.87% and +0.78%, respectively. After topping the list for several days in the past week, Alibaba (BABA) dropped to the bottom of the list, declining by -8.13% today. The Daily Update Growth List also had only two gaining stocks. Chewy (CHWY) topped the list with a +2.62% gain. The biggest loser on the list was Block (SQ), which declined by -9.64%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Consumer Price Index data arrives in the morning before the market opens. After trading starts, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and Consumer Expectations data will be released. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Just as I set a new support area at 12,000 on the chart, the Nasdaq fell below the line today breaking lower from an eight-day tight trading range. The index moved below the 12,000 area and closed below the 21d EMA. If the index is to return to the trend line from the 5/20 low, that would require a +5.37% gain which is not likely. If we can get back to the five-day trend line, that would mean a +2.32% gain. If the one-day trend line continues into Friday, that would result in a -1.59%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up All we can do now is wait for the CPI data for May. It could be investors priced in the bad news today because of the inflation warning from the ECB. If the data is higher than expected, we can expect more downward movement. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
A neutral Market waiting for FOMC on June 15,2022What will be out on June 15, 2022: 1- The United States Fed Interest Rate Decision, 1 yr, 2yr, and longer projection 2- The United States FOMC Economic Projections, longterm 3- United States Fed Press Conference, (Jerome Powell Effect) What is the Jerome Powell's Effect? In a Nutshell: High Volatility For further information read the post below: Action plan: 1- Wait for a clear breakout from the consolidation zone! 2- Update the stop loss for long position to entry or above it. FOMC Forecast: 1- Blaming War in Ukraine and COVID for high inflation. 2- Further rate hikes until Neutrality. 3- Although the GDP forecast will be lower, They will say the Economy is strong, and no risk of recession, or it will be shallow. Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
TVC:SPX
by Moshkelgosha
5
Daily Market Update for 6/8Summary: Indexes finished lower on Wednesday as investors fret over a slowing economy and wait for inflation data to come later this week. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 8, 2022 Facts: -0.73%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 18%, Body: 33% Red Good: Higher high and higher low, support above 21d EMA Bad: Closing range, higher volume on decline Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: A thing red body in the bottom of candle Advance/Decline: 0.63, three declining stocks for every two advancing Indexes: SPX (-1.08%), DJI (-0.81%), RUT (-1.49%), VIX (-0.25%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +0.22%) and Communications (XLC -0.27%) at the top. Materials (XLB -2.08%) and Real Estate (XLRE -2.40%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Indexes finished lower on Wednesday as investors fret over a slowing economy and wait for inflation data to come later this week. The Nasdaq finished the day -0.73% lower after a morning rally failed. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle has a long upper wick from the morning rally. The 33% red body sits in the lower half of the candle and results in an 18% closing range. There were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) had the biggest decline for the day, falling by -1.49%. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -1.08% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) retreated by -0.81%. The VIX Volatility Index declined by -0.25%. Of the eleven S&P 500 sectors, only Energy (XLE +0.22%) ended the day with gains. Materials (XLB -2.08%) and Real Estate (XLRE -2.40%) were the worst-performing indexes. Crude Oil Inventories rose by 2.025 million barrels. The forecast was for a decline of -1.917 million barrels. The 10y Treasury Note auction sent the yield on the 10y note back above 3%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by +0.21%. The 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices dropped. Brent Oil rose back above $120, ending the day at $122.65 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) fell to 0.709. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved further toward Neutral but remained in the Fear range. Three of the big six mega-caps gained for the day. Tesla (TSLA) led the gains with a +1.25% advance. Amazon (AMZN) led the decliners, losing -1.48% today. Alibaba (BABA) soared +14.67% today, landing at the top of the mega-cap list. At the bottom of the mega-cap list was Abbot Laboratories (ABT). In the Daily Update Growth List, another Chinese stock followed Alibaba higher. NIU Technologies (NIU) gained +10.67% to land behind Alibaba on the list. At the bottom of the growth list was GrowGeneration (GRWG) which declined by -4.03%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be published at 8:30a on Thursday. Earnings Reports for Thursday include Nio (NIO), DocuSign (DOCU), and Billibili (BILI). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq held above the 21d EMA for the past eight sessions, helping to form support at 12,000. If the index returns to the trend line from the 5/20 low, that would mean a +2.90% gain for Thursday. That's likely out of reach for tomorrow as investors would need positive inflation news on Friday for a rally. If the index continues along the five-day trend line, which is nearly flat, expect a +0.13% gain for Thursday. A continuation of today's one-day trend line would mean a -1.36% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The indexes are forming a nice base over the past eight trading days. Tomorrow will likely continue trading within that range. If we get the right inflation data on Friday, this base could add support for a nice rally. If the opposite happens, we may return to the lows set in May. For the broader economic picture, ask five analysts and you'll get five different answers. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/7Summary: Stocks advanced on Tuesday while more analysts continue to emerge with conflicting messages over the economy. Some say a recession is already here. Others say it's yet to come. Will it be big or small? Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 7, 2022 Facts: +0.94%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 94%, Body: 81% Green Good: High closing range, close above 21d EMA Bad: Dip below 21d EMA on lower low, volume down on gain Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Large green body, slightly longer lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.91, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.95%), DJI (+0.80%), RUT (+1.57%), VIX (-4.19%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.99%) and Industrials (XLI +1.34%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.53%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.25%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stocks advanced on Tuesday while more analysts continue to emerge with conflicting messages over the economy. Some say a recession is already here. Others say it's yet to come. Will it be big or small? The Nasdaq rose by +0.94% today. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has an 81% green body with a 94% closing range. The lower wick is short but formed in a morning dip after a gap-down open. The index rallied most of the day from that point, closing with the gain. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. Small-caps outperformed today, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) gaining +1.57%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose by +0.95% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced by +0.80%. The VIX Volatility Index fell by -4.19%. Ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained, led by Energy (XLE +2.99%) and Industrials (XLI +1.34%). Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.25%) was the only declining sector, led lower by Target which warned of tighter margins due to the need to clear inventories. The Trade Balance for April was at -87.01b, a bit better than the forecast of 89.50b. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock rose by 1.845m barrels. The stock was expected to dip by -1.800m barrels. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined by -0.08%. US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y Treasury Yield was flat for the day. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Brent Oil remained near, but below $120 a barrel. The put/call ratio (PCCE) fell to 0.782. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range but moved toward Neutral. Five of the big six mega-caps gained. Amazon (AMZN) was the only one that declined, falling by -1.43% after Target's message to the market. The biggest gainer was Apple (AAPL) which rose +1.76% after yesterday's announcement of new products to hit the market. Alibaba (BABA) was the top mega-cap of the day, gaining +5.36% to end up at the top of the list. Amazon was at the bottom of the list along with only three other mega-caps that declined. All retail: Costco (COST), Home Depot (HD), and Walmart (WMT). Chinese stocks topped the Daily Update Growth list after the Chinese government removed restrictions on some games in the market. Ehang Holdings (EH) was the biggest gainer, rising by +12.18%. The biggest loser on the list was Robinhood (HOOD), which declined by -4.28%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Crude Oil Inventors will be available in the morning after the market opens. There will be a 10y Note Auction in the afternoon. Campbell Soup (CPB), Five Below (FIVE), and Lovesac (LOVE) are some of the earnings reports for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq briefly dipped below the 21d EMA after the market opened. It quickly recovered and moved back above the key moving average, rallying more in the afternoon to end the day with gains. If the index returns to the trend line from the 5/20 low, that would mean a +2.11% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line leads to a +1.14% advance. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, that points to a -0.51% for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It seems every day we are getting a new message from corporate America that has a different signal about the market. Today, the message came from Target. They stated that due to an excess of inventory, they will need to increase discounts (lower prices) in order to clear shelves which will reduce margins in the coming quarter(s). Wait, reduce prices? What happened to runaway inflation? There have been plenty of analysts that predicted higher demand was driven by an increase in household inventories during the pandemic, which in turn has caused retailers to increase inventories as to not miss out on sales. That's turning out to be fairly accurate for Target and some other retailers. Demand for these products have dropped since households are no longer purchasing them and now prices need to come down to empty shelves. Of course, that's not all products and services everywhere. Oil will continue to drive transportation costs higher, which will impact prices of consumer products as well. There are still shortages such as the baby formula shortage and some staple foods. But maybe inflation is turning the corner. All eyes will be on the inflation data Friday (In yesterday's update, I incorrectly stated it would be Wednesday). Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/6Summary: Indexes faded from an early morning rally as bond yields rose sharply. Chinese stocks rose on optimism after the Chinese government said they would conclude an investigation into Didi later this week. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 6, 2022 Facts: +0.40%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 24%, Body: 58% Red Good: Held above the 21d EMA, volume higher on advance Bad: Lost early morning rally, low closing range Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Large red body in center of equal upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.72, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.31%), DJI (+0.05%), RUT (+0.36%), VIX (+1.13%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.00%) and Materials (XLB +0.95%) at the top. Energy (XLE -0.11%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.30%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Indexes faded from an early morning rally as bond yields rose sharply. Chinese stocks rose on optimism after the Chinese government said they would conclude an investigation into Didi later this week. The Nasdaq rose by +0.40%, but couldn't hold onto the 2% early-morning gain. Volume was higher than the previous day and the index had a higher low and higher high. The 58% red body sits in the middle of the candle with short upper and lower wicks, ending with a dismal 24% closing range. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.36%. The S&P 500 (SPX) moved by +0.31% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) narrowly escaped a loss, gaining only +0.05% today. The VIX Volatility Index ended the day +1.13% higher. Nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.00%) and Materials (XLB +0.95%) had the best results. Energy (XLE -0.11%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.30%) were the two losing sectors. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Yields all rose sharply as investors anticipate interest rate hikes. That pulled the US Dollar higher as well. The US Dollar Index (DXY) ended the day with a +0.24% gain. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices moved lower tracking along with treasury prices. Brent Oil fell back below $120 a barrel. The put/call ratio ended the day lower at 0.840. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remained close to Extreme Fear, but in the Fear region. Five of the big six mega-caps held onto gains. Microsoft (MSFT) was the only one to decline for the day, falling by -0.47% and closing just a smidge below its 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOGL) closed with the best gain, climbing by +2.14% for the day. Alibaba (BABA) topped the broader mega-cap list, outperforming along with other Chinese stocks. The stock gained +6.22% today. AstraZeneca (AZN) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, falling by -3.32% today. Two Chinese Fintech stocks topped the Daily Update Growth List. FUTU Holdings and UP Fintech gained +18.56% and +17.44% respectively. Chewy (CHWY) was at the bottom of the list, dropping by -3.61% as it gives back some of the massive 25% post-earnings gain last week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow morning will bring Exports, Imports, and Trade Balance data for April. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook will be published at mid-day. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock numbers come out after the market closes. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index started the day with a rally, but then faded through the rest of the day. It still closed above the 21d EMA. If the index returns to the trend line from the 5/20 low, that would mean a +3.10% advance for Tuesday. If it continues along the five-day trend line, then we can expect a +0.29% gain. The one-day trend line points to a -1.79% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Indexes looked poised to start the week with an aggressive rally, but energy faded quickly as Treasury yields soared. The market is waiting for Wednesday's inflation data to determine how hawkish the Fed will be beyond next week's expected 50 bps hike. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/3Summary: An ominous mail from Elon Musk to Tesla management topped the headlines on Friday and certainly dragged down the Nasdaq. However, it was likely the stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls that caused wider spread declines. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 3, 2022 Facts: -2.47%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 23%, Body: 42% Red Good: Support at 21d EMA, lower volume on decline Bad: Closing Range, A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low Candle: Inside day, short body in lower half of candle Advance/Decline: 0.46, more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.63%), DJI (-1.05%), RUT (-0.77%), VIX (+2.50%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.32%) and Industrials (XLI -0.39%) at the top. Technology (XLK -2.39%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.92%) at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview An ominous mail from Elon Musk to Tesla management topped the headlines on Friday and certainly dragged down the Nasdaq. However, it was likely the stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls that caused wider spread declines. The Nasdaq declined -2.47% on lower volume than the previous day. The 23% closing range comes above a tiny lower wick that kept the index above the 21d EMA for the close. The longer upper wick is above a 42% red body. The lower high and higher low mark an inside day. There were more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined by -1.63%, also impacted by the Tesla turmoil. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -1.05%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) held up well relative to the other indexes, declining only -0.77%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +2.50%. Only one S&P 500 sector, Energy (XLE +1.32%), gained for the day. The other ten declined with the worst losses coming from Technology (XLK -2.39%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.92%). Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 390,000 in May compared to the forecast of 325,000. The strong performance in the labor market means the Fed needs to worry less about higher interest rates impacting employment. Or at least that's the theory. Services PM and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected for the month of May. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.41%. 30y, 10, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell. Brent Oil reached $120 per barrel by the end of Friday. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.873. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Extreme Fear but remained in the Fear range. All big six mega-caps declined. Tesla (TSLA) led the declines with a -9.22% loss after Elon Musk's leaked emails. The CEO of Tesla said he had a "super bad feeling" about the economy and would need to cut 10% of the workforce. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was the top mega-cap for the day, rising by +1.45% as oil prices soared again. Tesla was at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Only three stocks in the Daily Update Growth list advanced. Okta (OKTA) was the top gainer after a strong earnings report. Draft Kings (DKNG) fell by -10.80%, landing it at the bottom of the growth list for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Futu (FUTU) will release earnings on Monday morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq held above the 21d EMA on an inside day. If the index returns to the trend line from the 5/20 low, that would mean a +3.47% gain on Monday. The five-day trend line points to a +0.82% gain. If the one-day trend continues, we can expect a -0.68% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Bad news was supposed to be good news on Friday. However, the bad news was supposed to be a weak jobs report, not a panicking CEO. Instead, we go a strong jobs report that means the Fed has more freedom to be hawkish in the second half of the year. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321