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Groupon long position/swing trade idea - $NASDAQ:GRPNNASDAQ:GRPN may be a long from here. It put in a monthly indecision candle last month, along with a relative volume per range signal, after sweeping below a pivot near an area of interest. Also swept under prior weekly low and reversed, heading back toward prior week high. I've started a tiny feeler position today looking for a potential weekly breakout and run up toward the highs around 19-20 and beyond, perhaps even starting a long run back up to the IPO price. I will tighten and add more if it takes out the weekly high. Normally in this distribution I would only look for a long if it first dropped to $7.5, and it may still do that or continue lower, but the monthly relvol signal made me want to make an attempt at this one from here. Monthly and quarterly relvol signals tend to lead to the best trends.
NASDAQ:GRPNLong
by easycators
S&P500 - Week 35 Recap and Takeaways This week was full of twists and surprises in the stock market. We managed to execute three trades, all of which ended in profit, but there were some key lessons to carry forward into next week. Let's dive into the rollercoaster that was Week 35. 1. The Bulls Lost the Fight for a Breakout Our initial Plan A was geared toward a bullish breakout above the blue resistance level, with hopes of reaching a new all-time high (ATH). However, the market had other plans. As soon as the index dipped below the VWAPs with strong volume, our Plan B automatically kicked in. 2. Trade 1 - Initiating Plan B As we outlined last weekend, our backup plan was to look for a 4-star bearish setup between the key zones (blue and green). The idea was to enter a short trade if the RVOL was greater than 3 and the market dipped below VWAP1 and VWAP2, provided the risk/reward (R/R) ratio was in our favor at a minimum of 1.7. This setup unfolded perfectly on Monday. We entered the trade, but as the price paused at an R/R ratio of 1.5, we decided to take 50% off the table, move our SL to the entry level, and let the market decide the rest. Although we aimed for a TP2 at an R/R ratio of 2.5, the price didn't drop that low and started a comeback later in the day. When the intraday downtrend broke near the end of the session, we closed Trade 1, netting a realized R/R ratio (r) of 0.885. Given the shaky conditions, we were happy to walk away with clear signals and a modest profit. 3. Understanding R/R Ratio(e) vs. R/R Ratio(r) Both estimated (e) and realized (r) R/R ratios are crucial in trading. Success in trading isn't just about estimating potential gains but also about tracking what you actually realize. This distinction is vital, especially during back-testing, as it separates profitable traders from those who break even or worse. 4. Trade 2 - The Day Before NVIDIA’s Quarterly Report On Wednesday, NVIDIA released its quarterly report after the NY exchange closed, and the results fell short of market expectations. The day started below VWAP with high RVOL, which matched our criteria for another short trade. We again set our TP in two stages—TP1 at an R/R ratio of 1.5 and TP2 at 2.5, as the market confirmed a new intraday downtrend. This trade played out perfectly, with both the estimated and realized R/R ratios matching. Some might wonder why we closed the trade even with strong momentum. The answer lies in the green long-term bullish trend line. We placed our final TP just above this line, anticipating support in that area, which is exactly what happened. The market bounced back just before the end of the day, and we closed out the trade before NVIDIA’s report was released. The risk of holding on for more was simply too high. 5. Trade 3 - The Day After NVIDIA After NVIDIA’s report, the S&P 500 dipped below the long-term trend line during the Asian session, but by the time the London session began, the price was fighting back. With RVOL greater than 3 and the index reclaiming VWAP1 and VWAP2, we entered another short trade with an estimated R/R ratio greater than 1.7. This trade also hit both of our TPs, and we exited just as the market approached the blue resistance zone. 6. Were There More Setups This Week As we reviewed the week, we found that no additional trades aligned with our strategy. On Tuesday, the market bounced back from VWAP with high RVOL but didn’t offer a favorable R/R ratio. On Thursday, RVOL was below 3 during a potential setup, and on Friday, despite strong RVOL, the R/R ratio was again too low. Later on Friday, the market surged, but low RVOL kept us on the sidelines. Conclusion The key takeaway from this week is the importance of patience and discipline. It’s crucial to sit on your hands when not all your rules are checked. Even if the trade you didn’t take would have worked out, letting your ego guide your trading decisions can be a trap. Your ego might remember that one missed opportunity and push you to take the next trade without all your criteria being met, but that’s a recipe for disaster. Sticking to your trading rules is like maintaining trust in a relationship. Ignoring your rules is akin to cheating; it might be thrilling at first, but it will eventually lead to more pain than gain. So, stay calm, trust your process, and let the market create the trade for you, not the other way around. We hope this update adds real value as you continue to navigate the markets this week. Stay disciplined, patient, and focused on making smart, strategic trades! Can’t Get Enough? Don’t Miss Out! Subscribe to stay updated on all our latest trading ideas and strategies. Share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s build a community of traders who are committed to learning, growing, and succeeding together. Your journey to market mastery is just beginning, and we’re here to guide you every step of the way! What You’ll Learn: - In-depth market analysis - Proven trading setups - Effective risk management techniques - The importance of discipline in trading - How to adapt to changing market conditions - And much more!... Best wishes, TradingMasteryHub
OANDA:SPX500USD
by TradingMasteryHub
Trading Idea of week 35 - S&P500 - TradingMasteryHubWelcome to the TradingMasteryHub Trading Ideas! Are you ready to gear up for the upcoming week? Join us as we dive into a detailed analysis to uncover top trading opportunities that could potentially boost your trading account. We’ll break down our strategy, defining precise Entries, managing Risk, and pinpointing the optimal Exit zones—steps that can transform your trading performance. Whether you’re just starting out or looking to fine-tune your approach, these insights are crafted to help you on your path to mastering the markets. S&P 500 Poised to Break New All-Time Highs! The S&P 500 has climbed back above its long-term uptrend (green trend line) that’s been in play since early November 2023. The current all-time high (ATH) of 5,680.4, set on July 16th, also marked the beginning of a mid-term downtrend (red trend line). However, two weeks ago, we witnessed a significant breakout from this downtrend, accompanied by high volume, which also reestablished the long-term uptrend. The last four trading days have been range-bound between key support (green) and resistance (blue) zones, with a stable volume profile (orange box) in between. If the price manages to break through the key resistance zone (blue), new ATHs are highly likely. This presents a clear and compelling trading opportunity that we’re excited to share with you. How to Turn This into a 5-Star Setup! Before we rush into a trade, excited by the prospect of bullish momentum, it’s crucial to do our homework. This means waiting for multiple confirmations before entering the trade: 1. The Trend is Your Friend: The chart shows different trends depending on the time frame. We’re trading on a 15-minute chart, where the uptrend is clear. But we also need to confirm that the higher time frame (above our execution trend) is in an uptrend and not in a consolidation phase following a longer-term downtrend. - Box Checked: We saw a breakout from the mid-term downtrend on August 15th with high volume (RVOL > 3) and a 15-minute close above the last higher low of that downtrend on August 19th, also with high volume. 2. We Need New Bullish Momentum: To hit new ATHs, we require strong buying pressure. This could come from a catalyst like favorable news (e.g., interest rate cuts by the Fed) or a technical breakout above the key resistance zone (blue). - Box Checked: We’ll look for a 15-minute close above the blue zone, RVOL > 3 at the breakout, and ideally, a U.S. market opening above the previous day’s Volume Profile high to confirm a trending day. - Plus: Price must be above both the session VWAP and 2-day VWAP. - Bonus: An additional catalyst in the form of a market-moving news event. 3. We Need Patience: Only when all the above criteria are met should we enter the trade. - Entry: After a 15-minute candle closes above the blue zone, but only if the risk/reward ratio is >1.3 up to Target 1. - Risk Management: Stop Loss (SL) at 5,624.7, just below Friday’s Pivot R1 minus 6 points for market noise. Take Profit (TP) Target 1 is set at 5,678, just below Pivot R2 (also the 1.618 Fib Extension), where we’ll scale out 50% of the position and move the SL to the entry level, making the trade risk-free. - Profit Target 2 (50%): This will likely be around 5,730, just below the 2.618 Fib Extension. If we don’t see new ATHs, TP Target 2 will be triggered by a close below the highest green 15-minute candle. 4. We Need Discipline: Trading only when all conditions are met will give us an edge in the long run. - Discipline: Sticking to your rules is crucial for consistent trading. Without discipline, you lose the ability to analyze and refine your edge, leaving you at the mercy of emotional decisions. 5. We Need to Review Our Trades: Keeping a Trading Journal is essential for learning from both mistakes and successes. We’ll provide another e-Learning session focused on this vital topic. A simple journal can significantly improve your trading. Always Have a Plan B! Sometimes Plan A doesn’t play out. That’s why it’s important to have a Plan B—a slightly less optimal, but still viable, 4-star setup. In this case, if the breakout above the blue zone doesn’t occur and the market reverses towards the green zone, we might consider a short trade instead. But again, we need a separate checklist: 1. Range Trades Need a History: The market must test key zones (green and blue) more than twice each to confirm a range. - Confirmation: More than two touches of the green and red zones have already occurred. 2. We Need Bearish Momentum: A bearish environment is necessary for a return to the range. This could be triggered by a negative catalyst (e.g., lower unemployment rates) or a breakdown below VWAP. - Box Checked: We need a 15-minute candle close below both session VWAP and 2-day VWAP, RVOL > 3, and the market ranging within the Volume Profile. 3. We Need Patience: Enter the trade only when all conditions are met. - Entry: After a 15-minute candle closes below both VWAPs, with a risk/reward ratio >1.7 up to TP Target 1. - Risk Management: SL at 5,647, just above Friday’s Pivot R1 plus 6 points for noise. TP Target 1 at 5,602, just above Pivot P (0.382 Fib retracement), where we’ll close 100% of the position. 4. We Need Discipline: As always, sticking to the plan is key. 5. We Need to Review Our Trades: Keeping track of your trades ensures you learn and improve over time. --- Conclusion and Recommendation By focusing on clear trends, momentum, and discipline, you can capitalize on high-probability trading setups like the ones we’ve outlined here. However, it's crucial to understand that not every 5-star setup will be a winner. Even the most promising setups don’t guarantee success every time. The true key to long-term profitability lies in consistently following a well-defined strategy and maintaining a favorable risk/reward ratio. Over time, this disciplined approach can lead to steady profits, helping you grow your trading account while minimizing losses. Having a solid Plan B also keeps you prepared for whatever the market throws your way. With these strategies, you’re not just following the market—you’re mastering it. Can’t Get Enough? Don’t Miss Out! Subscribe to stay updated on all our latest trading ideas and strategies. Share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s build a community of traders who are committed to learning, growing, and succeeding together. Your journey to market mastery is just beginning, and we’re here to guide you every step of the way! What You’ll Learn: - In-depth market analysis - Proven trading setups - Effective risk management techniques - The importance of discipline in trading - How to adapt to changing market conditions - And much more!... Best wishes, TradingMasteryHub
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by TradingMasteryHub
ULTA Looking SPICY for an UP MOVE!ULTA is looking absolutely spicy for an up move! We're in a strong pivot zone (both internal and external) with increasing RVOL and high volatility. This is the recipe for a huge explosion. Just like I predicted NASDAQ:INTC 's explosive move before it happened earlier today! Now, we need to look for the continuation of increasing RVOL while the price stays in the pivot zone. Key Points to Watch: Strong Pivot Zone ✅ Increasing RVOL 📈 High Volatility ⚡ Get ready for a potential breakout! 💥
NASDAQ:ULTALong
by TradeTalkFarsi