Rvx undecided still holding bearishMy guess is the market is waiting for a fed meeting to decide the direction for me Rty looks ready to die a horrible death but we will see.
I'm bearish bias right now until we see some goo price movement in either direction, maybe a lower high on price movement or break down lower on the RVX. sending rty to retestance
RVX
RVX (RTY's VIX) 9/6/2020RVX at the daily view.
This is a project that my trading team and I are conducting. This is 4 of 9 charts (available on Trading View) that searches for clues for an imminent correction by using both June and September 2020 cases. It's a comprehensive overview that connects the charts volatility, trends, divergences, credit, and currency strength.
In this chart, the RVX had RSI divergences prior to the corrections. In addition, the RVX created 3-4 higher lows in a row prior to a correction.
RVX (RTY's VIX) at a Decision Point 8/23/2020This is the RVX at the daily view.
The RVX has finally reached a decision point between the long-term wedge resistance and the supports below. Currently, the RTY is in a giant bull flag since August 3rd and doing a "correction over time."
A correction over time is actually a bearish in the very short-term, but bullish in the medium-term. Currently, the RTY is coiling up for another move up. The RVX indicates that more sideways to down movement is ahead for the RTY until the bull flag finally plays out. The RTY's bull flag is canceled out around 1460.
Currently, the bears flocked to both the NQ and the RTY. The market tends to hunt for shorts first and the the longs. Judging by how many bears have saturated the RTY, I'm expecting a small spike down first and then a rather big short covering rally.
Greed tends to punish both sides.
$IWM bear/bull caseBULL CASE
Channel support looms.
Big volatility down trend (RVX) - possible support of 29 in RVX from March breakout.
If uptrend from 7/31 in channel continues:
166 would be fill of Feb gap down.
ATH's come next at 171.
Multi-week, channel upside goes to 185.
BEAR CASE
Bearish divergence on RSI, riding up on down volume.
Multiple support levers that could get swept away in sell-off.
Double top alive if bears capture ~154 in the near future.
Early August gap needs filling down to 151.
Mid June gap needs filling down to 142.
Open to any thoughts/feedback. Mostly going through this exercise to force myself to be clear-eyed about risk reward.