Short S&P500 1D candle / 9 month time frameI can see a repetition of the same pattern that occurred in November, with a trend reversal (Price diverges from upper BB) after a rapid rally. Furthermore, the trend reversal occurred at a consolidated resistance point 2015. Finally the stoch indicator hints to a downtrend as well as the a bearish dominance that the negative slope of the balance of power indicator has. Furthermore, it has to be noted that external, mainly european, forces put negative pressure on US equities. The brexit referendum creates uncertainty in the market and the Chinese economic slowdown contributes to the unfavourable bad earnings of Q1.
S&p500short
AAPL + FOMC = ?Apple Inc. $AAPL reports earnings after the bell on Tuesday and things don't look so rosy.
The July FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) rate decision is on Wednesday, July 27th.
Unless some concrete data comes up until the report, a 25bps interest rate hike or a strong indication of one in the upcoming meetings will send the S&P500 down in an initial "unexpected" spiral.
Here is some TA (Technical Analysis) to support the existence of the support lines :)
Support areas take into account a rapid 2-day sell off on Tuesday and Wednesday, if they occur.
Enjoy.
$SPX | Bearish Wolfe Wave | 1-4 Line TargetHello Traders,
$SPX created a BEARISH Wolfe Wave at market close on Friday July 8th. I would look for a short in the vicinity between point 5 and 5'.
As it stands, the target is the 1-4 line as far as the Wolfe Wave is concerned. If and only if 5' (5 prime) is hit will I consider Geo's Off-Set Rule at point 4 as the highest probability target.
Stay tuned.
Best,
Chartistry
$SPY and $NYSE showing Bullish Market Internals for 07/20/2016- S&P is trading above its 100-period SMA, which has turned green, illustrating positive price momentum
- Breadth ratio is < 2.0, which is a weak bullish signal, but is starting to gain positive momentum
- Net Advance Decline Line is still < 1000, which is a "not as strong" bullish signal, but is above its 21-period EMA and is rising quickly to break 1000
SP: We are on the TOPwe arrived at the top of the climb and from next week the sales are expected to begin . The max is placed between 2167 and 2177 .
selling ceiling forming *possibly*price hasn't closed above the down trending inverted hammer
there is a morning star downtrend that bounced from support
the long uptrend has been broken.
if there is a daily reversal pattern, I'd wait for the next down trend to unfold.
then look for entries around the highs where the downtrend started.
at 3 touches to those highs, I'd look for reversals on 4hr and up.
Ty
S&P 500 (2H) @ Basic Technical Scenario (freestyle)
2136.50: all time high
2127.60: high before brexodus
2112.10: 1st high and meanwhile support after brexouds lows
2088.90: 2nd low after 1st high and meanwhile support after brexodus lows
2072.90 : intraday high (as brexit-referendum came out)
2072.90 : 1st low after 1st high and meanwhile support after brexodus lows
between 2112.10 & 2072.90 :
"trend-evidence-formation - after brexit sell-off"
above 2112.70 way open for new all-time highs @ only resistance by 2127.60
- eben highs before the rbexit-referendum came out @ friday before two weeks ...
Best regards:
Aaron
S&P 500 Daily Balance Area BreakdownEvery time the S&P has made a Balance area at it's all time highs it has sold off hard.
We just broke the most recent balance area to the downside again.. Looking for a bear run for quite some time. I fully expect market to revisit 1850's again, just given previous patterns.
Best of Luck
S&P500 D Bearish GARTLEY PATTERN @ 2097Hi guys,
Here is a bearish GARTLEY pattern @ 2097 in which i would have a sell limit in place and stop loss will be placed above the X leg which we use as good resistance in this case. Targets will be at the 38.2% and 61.8% fibonacci levels. IF/WHEN first targets are met, half of the position would be closed for profit and stop loss for the second half of the position will be moved to break-even, ensuring a risk-free trade.
Thank you for your support.
Trade Numbers:
Risk: 22 points x 2 = 44 points
Reward #1: 23 points. R:R = 1:1.05
Reward #2: 38 points. R:R = 1:1.70
Plan your trade... Trade your plan.
S&P dropThe left side of the blue target box is at the number of months the 2000 dot com bubble took to reach swing low. The right side is the number of months the 2008 crisis took to reach swing low. The top of the box is the % drop of the 2000 dot com bust, and the bottom of the box is the % drop of the 2008 crisis. Interestingly, the average of the 2 is almost exactly the .786 retracement from the last swing low after the 2008 crisis and the recent swing high in late 2015.
here is my analysis:
2000 correction (dot com bubble)
155.75 to 77.07 : 50.5% drop
High of 155.75 at March 2000, low of 77.07 at October 2002 : 32 months
2008 correction (housing bubble)
157.52 to 67.10 : 57.4% drop
High of 157.52 at October 2007, low of 67.10 at March 2009 : 18 months
2016 correction (dollar bubble )
50.5% drop from 213.78 : 105.82
57.4% drop from 213.78 : 91.07
average: 98.45
High of 213.78 in May 2015
possible time frame to reach low: between November 2016 and January 2018 (32 months)