Bitcoin Detailed Top-Down Analysis - Day 53Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
53 out of 500 days done.
I truly appreciate your continuous support everyone!
Let me know if you like the series, and if you would like me to change or add anything.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
S-COIN
Weekly Analysis BTC via IchimokuGood weekend,
As usual, here is our analysis of the week looking at a glance at the daily chart of BINANCE:BTCUSDT using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator with traditional settings. We used in support other indicators that we developed and released Open Source, you can find them at the end of the analysis.
Trend:
Kumo has been green for 17 days, flattening and shrinking (now at 4.61%). The situation has changed dramatically since the previous week. After an attempt to break the Kumo the price presented a series of red candles including a Marubozu that led the price to go below the Kumo, the Tenkan, the Kijun (which it was approaching) and the Tenkan Weekly. Right now the only uptrend signals are from the Kumo of the future, which still remains green.
The Kijun Trend indicator continues to indicate looking for long positions, although-as price has gone below the Kumo and not touched it for two candles-it may return to looking for short positions.
Heikin-Ashi:
Interestingly, the Heikin-ashi, which usually-at the cost of having some lag-cleans the trend were green until price touched the top of the Kumo and then instead indicated a strong downtrend with only red candles of which many without shadows above.
Supports and resistances:
- 25000.00 by Fibonacci
- 24600.00 Tenkan Weekly
- 23400.00 Chikou cusp level or flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 22400.00-22600.00 Chikou cusp level or flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 20200.00 Chikou cusp level or flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 20000.00 psychological threshold
- 19100.00-18900.00 Chikou cusp level or flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 12700.00 from the waves of Hosoda
- 11000.00-13000.00 Chikou cusp level or flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
For the various static price structures, reference can be made to the chart where the structures identified by the flat moments of Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B on different timeframes, also Chikou for the daily time frame, are plotted.
Also, recall that the various Ichimoku lines serve as dynamic price structures: the Tenkan Sen (short term), the Kijun Sen (medium term) as well as the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B (long term).
Fibonacci:
The Fibonacci levels on the Daily still show us positive long-term sentiment and places the 0 upside on 75000.00. Price is still below the 1 level on which it was rejected.
Conclusion:
BTC's situation has changed after touching the key 25000.00a level. Not surprisingly, there are some Long Upper Shadows candles on the Senkou Span B.
The Hosoda waves that found a new bearish ABC pattern with point C on the August 15 high, indicates very interesting levels such as 21084.38 (where the price is right now) 20118.06 as support and 23631 as resistance.
It is important to assess the close of the week and during the week on the following price structures:
- Bullish/Lateral: 23631.01
- Bearish: 20118.06
Altcoin Cycle:
For Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Cycle we can consider the weekly variation:
- Total cryptocurrency market capital: Decreased.
- BTC Dominance: Increased.
- Price of BTC: Decreased.
- Alt cycle expectation: Decreased fast.
Thanks for your attention, happy to support the TradingView community.
Indicators used:
Analysis Tool
Kijun Trend Indicator
Ichimoku Support and Resistance
Chikou Support and Resistance
COIN - Gap down Jumped the big supply area around from 83 to 77 and closing lower on higher volume. Might do quick reversal but at this point i think 63 area is possible. will look for longs on the way down (63 and hopefully the 50 area). watch out for bitcoin's price.. Please share your comments. NFA
Coin forming a base? Coinbase
Short Term
We look to Buy at 84.07 (stop at 66.49)
Price action looks to be forming a bottom. Price action looks to be forming a bullish flag/pennant. Dips continue to attract buyers. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 80.00, resulting in improved risk/reward. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Our profit targets will be 148.88 and 159.10
Resistance: 115.00 / 150.12 / 206.00
Support: 80.00 / 50.34 / 44.15
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
SPY to the downsideSPY looks to be developing a reverse head and shoulders to take on the wall. I don't see the volume justifying us getting over this current wall so I assume we will develop support at about 390-395 so we can take on the 420 walls if we even get past the 415 walls. A lot of market maker activity, very obvious shorts that are pumping in premarket which makes me assume we're in for a drop. I also assume based on the price levels of bitcoin, BTC will go test 21k and then 19k if that fails. Ideally, BTC catches at that support, and both BTC and SPY rally and I get into Microstrategy 2024 leaps and plan my retirement. I'll probably buy one when BTC hits 21 and average down at 19. They are about 10k per option for 300c leaps and if BTC rips with MicroStrategy holding then each option will go for at least 70-90k if BTC goes back to even 60k based on Microstrategy hoarding BTC during this bear market.
COINBASE updated levels (Nomad News?)
This is an update to my Coinbase Idea from July 26, linked below.
I've mapped couple new levels but my overall plan hasn't changed, waiting for Earnings on August 9th.
Coinbase flying today, only reason I can think of is the $200mil Nomad exploit.
Price is hesitating to break above the Golden Pocket of fibs taken from July 20th. A lower timeframe will help in identifying an entry if the price breaks above GP.
Price breaks above GP (with a confirmation)
Target #1: 71.65
Target #2: 76.90
Price gets rejected by GP
Target: 63.5 this is a tested level, Short trade will require some vigilant TP adjustments.
If you've got an eye on some interesting charts, please let me know, I'd be happy to take a look.
This is my Thesis, targets are purely hypothetical based on my analysis.
This is NOT Investment and/or Trading Advice.
Happy Trades!
❤️ If you enjoy my ideas , Please like/comment , It means a lot, Thank You! ❤️
Coinbase with a massive pump. Will it last?The first sign that Coinbase was bottoming was that it dropped 90%. Very few stocks fall so much without bouncing at some point. The second was Fred Ehrsam, its co-founder who now runs Pm, a venture fund, bought 75m USD worth of shares with an average price of 70$. Whenever a founder is getting in after a crash, especially one running a venture fund, it's time to pay attention. www.coindesk.com
Then despite Bitcoin and Ethereum making new lows in June, COIN didn't follow. Despite all the blowups in the space, Coinbase wasn't affected, and its business model remained healthy. The price then failed to make new lows when negative news about negative earnings, firing employees, insider trading, and nine tokens trading on its platform being declared securities led ARKK, which also prompted Cathie Wood & ARKK to dump their 1.4m worth of Coinbase shares. www.forbes.com markets.businessinsider.com
As Coinbase was clearly in accumulation mode and was going sideways, the news about a partnership with Blackrock popped up and created a massive surge in the price. In my opinion, it wasn't so much the news that caused the pump, but it served as an essential catalyst. The rally was so strong that the stock trading was paused and fell lower once it resumed. However, it wasn't just the pause that led to a pullback but also the fact that it hit significant resistance. This looks like a normal pullback, and the stock will rally higher at some point, although it might first fill the gap lower and retest the 75-80$ breakout zone. Therefore a dip here could be an excellent buy-the-dip opportunity, with the following primary target being 200-220$.
www.theblock.co
Filling the gapCoinbase stock is about 90% down since the first open.
One would get spooked by that, but that's normal in the crypto world.
It is also normal in crypto world to trade against your own customers, insider trading is prevalent, listing unregistered securities and promptly dumping them on retail is also normal.
After SEC started investigating the company even the most die-hard funds who've though that Coinbase is the future have dumped the stock. I'm specifically talking about Cathie Wood's Ark Invest.
Ark selling was the buy signal.
Taking a long to fill that gap. Mind this is a nearly 50% swing trade.
You would think that is not normal, but with crypto it is.
Good luck.
Bullish case for CoinbaseCoinbase x Meta NFTs x Blackrock
Wait for the confirmation tho
Hey folks, I am Nav!
With this account, I am trying to journal my trades. And I like to keep my trades extremely simple and uncluttered.
Please use the areas highlighted as support,confluence or resistance and plan accordingly & responsibly
If you liked my idea, please check others and follow for more!!
Cheers :)
Coinbase: returning to key supportCoinbase
Short Term
We look to Sell at 63.59 (stop at 70.72)
The primary trend remains bearish. We are assessed to be in a corrective mode higher. A move higher faces tough resistance and we remain cautious on upside potential. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Trading volume is decreasing.
Our profit targets will be 45.94 and 41.01
Resistance: 63.00 / 78.00 / 163.00
Support: 53.00 / 50.00 / 46.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
$COIN: Expecting Further DownsideMy count on $COIN has it going significantly lower. From its inception, the pattern appears to be corrective, and should need to see further downside in order to complete cycle (yellow) c, at a minimum.
That will not ensure that the pattern is complete, however, as that itself may only be the first leg of an even larger 3-wave structure, but we will have to wait until we can try to make that assessment.
The target posted is based off of a fib relationship that I expect to see at a minimum for the next leg down.
Bitcoin trajectory before the July closing! BTCUnder the current circumstances, with the recent economic crises, the war in Russia and Ukraine, and the change in interest rates around the world, Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market are experiencing strong pressure that caused it to fall to a new bottom and numbers for the first time since 2019 and under these circumstances, Bitcoin still maintains its strength and lack of The collapse, especially after pressures and skepticism, is one of the most influential leadership figures on the markets.
And even after Elon Musk withdrew more than 75% of his stake in Bitcoin, estimated at $936 million, or nearly one billion, and despite that, he remained coherently stronger at the bottom 19800-24200, and this shows us the reflection of the next explosion on Bitcoin and the currency market encrypted in general.
We notice from the chart before the monthly closing that Bitcoin forms an ascending channel after touching the bottom of the channel on July 13 at 18800 and rebounding to 24200 in the channel’s ceiling and then breaking an uptrend and rebounding from 20600 with high momentum in an attempt to breach the resistance and breach the channel’s ceiling.
Now we are waiting for the July 31 closing to confirm the validity of this pattern. The breach of 25500 is a real bullish indicator. The rebound from 25500 means a return to the bottom of the channel or 19800. This may happen with the current news about the Taiwan, China and the United States war.
July 31 is very important
COINBASE, when you taunt the SEC one too manyNASDAQ:COIN
Hi friends, Today was a Good Day!
At the beginning of this month I went on an adventure, I've done my due diligence on Coinbase. An exchange I love, It was a first legit crypto exchange I used back in 2013. Our relationship was great, coins went in cash came out.
____________________________________________________________________________
I decided to flex and did a bit of financial evaluation.
____________________________________________________________________________
My Idea on July 4th - Coinbase *checks papers* overvalued,
yielded a great Long towards the resistance.
Consensus was simple, I would like to see Coinbase trade closer to its Tangible Book Value, a range of 35.22 to 23.48
July 20th Idea - Coinbase Rumors with some News sprinkled on top.
I was still in an active trade, targeting 70.3 and seeing where it goes from there. I've presented a timeline of what I believed were signs of trouble at Coinbase.
July 22nd Idea - COINBASE What happens to a dream deferred?
With my Long trade completed, I've reassessed my targets and prepared to Short. Targeting 63.5, and 53.5 if all went well. For a few days the price cruised along the upper channel wall. And then I saw THE NEWS! Coinbase taunts the SEC, and next day they're under investigation. As Short signals go, that was a pretty solid one.
Today both Targets hit, the price currently sits near 53.5.
Best case scenario, I see the price reach my Tangible Book Value range sometime around August 9th.
_____________________________________________________________________________
I invite you to checkout my other three Coinbase ideas, linked below.
If you found any of this interesting, please leave a like/comment.
Thanks!
WhoIsWu
COINBASE What happens to a dream deferred?
Part Two of the Qualitative and Quantitative NASDAQ:COIN analysis.
Quantitative
My updated levels for Coinbase are 63.5 and 53.5 , these are support levels and potential Short targets.
I added the 105 level for balance, Long target but I wouldn't hold my breath for it.
Tangible Book Value Range is still the same: 35.22 to 23.48
Net Current Asset Value: 11.48
The price has reached an upper wall of the channel I traced from around November 2021. Considering the volume Coinbase trades with, I think it can easily break through this wall, whether if I think it should is another topic.
I've linked my previous Coinbase ideas below, if anyone is interested in previous levels.
Qualitative
I will list the events and at the end make a conclusion as to why this Qualitative analysis matters, and how it should affect the NASDAQ:COIN price.
Coinbase in the news, July 21
July 21st 2022 - Former Coinbase product manager charged with tipping off co-conspirator about tokens that were about to be listed on the exchange.
This is commonly known as insider trading . Link to the official Press Release is attached below.
www.justice.gov
This was originally brought to light by a Twitter user Cobie, on April 12th 2022.
Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase in a twitter thread has revealed that since April they've investigated the alleged misconduct and provided the information to law enforcement. Happy ending, Coinbase did the right thing. Investigations take time, especially when multiple agencies are involved, if anything the timeline from April to July 21st of Investigation to Indictment is very quick.
For those of us following the crypto industry, often hear the word Regulation , we understand it's just a matter of time until the industry gets regulated.
It is funny that Coinbase in doing the right thing and reporting insider trading, led to the SEC officially naming several Coinbase listed tokens as Securities. What will this result in, I can't tell.
I linked the official SEC Press Release below.
Tokens Affected:
AMP, RLY, DDX, XYO, RGT, LCX, POWR, DFX, KROM
Regarding the DFX and KROM tokens, they do not show up in Coinbase symbol search, I assume they're no longer listed.
www.sec.gov
Conclusion
Coinbase has been struggling with financials, looking at the chart, it is clear that a lot of value has been lost. But, Coinbase has also done a lot to optimize it's operations since last quarter. Earnings Report is on August 9th, and I intend to read through the 10-Q.
Coinbase listed tokens being named as securities in the SEC report, SEC has mentioned before that currently it does not consider BTC and ETH to be securities, this might change. I anticipate Coinbase will revise it's listing framework, stricter rules, stricter due diligence. Either way, short term effects will be clear when the market opens today.
This is my Thesis, targets are purely hypothetical based on my analysis.
This is NOT Investment and/or Trading Advice.
Happy Trades!
❤️ If you enjoy my ideas , Please like/comment , It means a lot, Thank You! ❤️
APE still on tract for a breakoutAPE had a slight downtrend because of the market and dollar gaining ground affecting all crypto. We are still range bound and on track for the next move. APE can be very volatile so be prepared for $0.50-$0.65 cent movements. These movements seem to always recover in time and it happens because of short market sells hoping to hit stop losses. This causes the big swings.
Tip:
Dont panic sell, and becareful with your stops. If you have alot of shares you could end up hearting yourself even more that where your stop is set. For example, i had 3k shares, stopped out at $6, but my average was $5.812 cents. Decreased way than expected and right after the stop hit it went right back up to 5c below my stop hit. If you have 3k+ shares you could see your stop loosing an additional 10-20 cents with market sells. This is why shorts are short selling big shares market style. Keep those stops with limits to protect your profit. There are alot of bears shorting ape because of the big downtrend its had in the past, but like with all bear markets they eventually end. There liquidation time is coming.
Coinbase: Ready to COIN it?Coinbase - Short Term - We look to Buy at 64.00 (stop at 54.64)
Price action looks to be forming a bottom. Broken out of the triangle formation to the upside. Dips continue to attract buyers. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 64.00, resulting in improved risk/reward. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Our profit targets will be 100.00 and 149.87
Resistance: 83.32 / 100.25 / 150.12
Support: 64.09 / 50.34 / 44.15
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.