*Bitcoin* Price Prediction. Logarithmic Regression with S2FUpdated Bitcoin price prediction using the logarithmic regression curve and Plan B's original Stock to Flow. This should be a base case scenario for 2021.
S2f
Undervalued Bitcoin - A lot of room for capital gains According to PlanB's Stock to Flow Cross Asset Model (S2FX), Bitcoin (BTC) is still undervalued by 35% as of now and the fair value of Bitcoin will climb further in the next month.
The S2FX model predicts a Bitcoin price of around 280k USD by end of 2024 at latest. What we saw in the last weeks is a lot of buying activity of institutions like Microstrategy, Square and Greyscale Bitcoin Trust driving the prices higher and higher.
My personal opinion is that this is still the beginning of the big Bitcoin pump in the upcoming month. More and more institution start buying bitcoin against a hedge against the endless printing of FIAT money. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is following.
BTC's next cycle high: $200k-250kThis is based off of stock 2 flow and statistical bands. In prior cycles, the cycle high tends to head towards the low range of the top s2f bands. The next s2f band bottom is 200-250k. This would be a blow-off top. The fair value could be more around 80k. I think the blow-off top will be more conservative than prior cycles because of mature money entering. Bigger funds and names will take profit earlier or not demand the buys as high as in prior cycles. This puts between $150-200k+ upper bound.
Predicting the future price of Bitcoin.Using a non-linear logarithmic regression, we can project the price of Bitcoin towards the future. Seems consistent with the Stock to Flow price and reveals much more upside as time goes forward.
What will happen when a cylcle contains 2 halvings?This is a humble idea for this current bitcoin cycle. I took 3 previous cycles and projected their avarage differences taking S2F targets as a reference. I noticed the (small) possibility of two main peaks: one during the end of 2021 and one for the end of 2024. I can't imagine a final peak during the end of 2021 because this will result in a similar cycle lenght as the previous one. It would be too much too quick. I was inpired by the second bitcoin cycle, having a first peak in April 2013.
The length for this projected long cycle, untill the 24th of october 2024, is the result of the differences between previous cycles. If this current cycle projection works out, this cycle exceeds the next halving. For sure, one day it will. What are the consequences there? More stability, maturity and much less volatility? Or will there be a second sequence of rallies in the same cycle? ... Or will halving mechanics force to limit the cycle lengths?
BTC/USD S2F trend modelAs a trend investor, I made my own S2F based on the trend of the pre-halving era, 1st and 2nd halving.
I added some baby curves that can cross the wicks.
Pre-halving era :
- Lasted more than 28 months.
- Made +15602.93% from $0.07 to $10.21 in 11 months
- Angle of 66°
1st halving :
- Lasted 44 months (x1.5714285714285714285714285714286 more than pre-halving era)
- Made +4880.22% (/3.1971775862563572953678317780756 less than pre-halving era) from $10.21 to $508.48 in 12 months (x1.0909090909090909090909090909091 more than pre-halving era)
- Angle of 58° (/1.1379310344827586206896551724138 less than pre-halving era)
2nd halving :
- Lasted 46 months (x1.0454545454545454545454545454545 more than 1st halving = /1.5031055900621118012422360248448)
- Made 1603.07% (/3.0442962565577298558391087101624 less than 1st halving = /3.0442962565577298558391087101624) from $508.48 to $8659.76 in 16 months (x1.3333333333333333333333333333333 more than 1st halving = x1.2222222222222222222222222222222)
- Angle of 41° (/1.4146341463414634146341463414634 less than 1st halving = /1.2431633407243163340724316334072)
3rd halving :
- Should last 32 months (x0.69552967693463561232156273478581 less than 2nd halving)
- Should make 553.02583373988050817025363976673% (/2.8987253437314376227954450287342 less than 2nd halving) from $8659.76 -> $56550.46993987267 in 26 months (x1.6296296296296296296296296296296 more than 2nd halving = x1.2222222222222222222222222222222)
- Should make an angle 36° (/1.1379310344827586206896551724138 less than 2nd halving = /1.2431633407243163340724316334072)
Bitcoin 4y halving cycles and the S2F modelIncluded the S2F prices on this 4y halving cycles model. Given that the prices overshoot the S2F model we should be expecting prices around 150.000 in this bullrun, however this feels like a long shot. I'd argue that we will definitely see the 50k range this run, but anything above is yet to be seen. What do you think?
In the next cycle the S2F seems to exceed our trend too much which might be the point where the model breaks. The prices of the S2FX model seems to be more likely during this period.
BTC/USD - Shall the rising trend be finally broken?Hello Everyone,
Many of us knows the stock-to-flow ratio model (S2F), primarally published by PlanB. We know that model is only teoretical support and do not shows exact levels for the price. But can suggest, of course, "fair value" according to Bitcoin's inflation.
Today we have two months since we broke long-term support and the price dropped to c.a. 3800 USD. Since that day we have built another rising trend. This rising trend is very strong for enabling the price to reach the "fair value". If the S2F model is true, we already reached the "fair value" and the rising of the price does not need to be as strong.
As you see, the slope of the current trend (since 2 months) is a little harder than the slope of the fitted S2F 365-daily moving average line (S2F 365d MA) according to PlanB's model. That is why the current trend should be broken (in my opinion). The miners' capitulation after the halving is a really good opportunity to do that, finally. BTW, RSI 14 support line is already broken since yesterday.
As the S2F 365d MA is rising, however, also rapidly, the break of current trend does not have to mean a massive price dropping down. We need to just find another supports and build new rising trend. Or... or go back to the older that was broken two months ago.
With best regards,
Paweł
Using Stock to Flow model 4 future BITCOIN PRICE PREDICTIONTo predict Bitcoin’s fair future value using the stock-to-flow model I charted stock to flow median price on a halvening dates and used parallel price channel as a boundary.
The middle price is the "fair" price for that halvening period
Upper price is 200% increase that correspons to overshoot above "fair" price during the bubble phase.
The lower price corresponds to a 50% decrease from the "fair" price during the bear market after overshoot period ends.
By this model next "fair price" to be expected in a year (because of the price lag) is 120 000 USD, 60k is price for a bear market while 360k is FOMO phase, and while this price might look too large for a asset class that just started to be seen as an investment asset class, central banks monetary policy works in Bitcoins favour.
This (median) price would put Bitcoins marketcap above 2 Trillion Dollars. A huge sum by most standards, but since Corona virus crash more than 4 Trillion dollars found its way just into American economy, without ECB plan to flood the markets with even more free money (and the money printing machine still goes brrrrrrr).
This fact means that price of 120K could in fact be way larger because of the inflation. Although all of this might look "moonboyish" Bitcoin doesn't stop to amaze us for more than decade. Now It is not the matter of IF bitcoin makes, it already made it... but a question how far will it go.
Bitcoin S2F rangesHi Guys,
I put de ranges of Plan B S2F model in my chart. The halving is next week and in the following months we will know if the model works.
I hope you like it.
Regards
NLMarco
⚠️ Bitcoin Halving Dumpin my estimation, the most likely outcome for bitcoin short term is a crash leading up to OR after the halving (too much built up hype--reflected by bearish technicals), but the price should revert to the stock-to-flow pricing model afterwards within +-2 SD (i.e. 95% confidence)
mid to long term, bitcoin is looking extremely bullish. there's simply no reason to be bearish, the current economic situation is the perfect storm and the expected returns for bitcoin are unmatched by any other asset class. i'd recommend not trying to time the market and continuing to regularly buy to get an average cost-basis (DCA).
for more information on the stock-to-flow model for bitcoin, read this article: medium.com
Logarithmic Regression of BTC (2 versions) with stock to flow. Using 2 versions of the Logarithmic regression of Bitcoin to forecast future btc prices. Curious which regression will be more accurate.
Bitcoin Logarithmic regression, Stock to Flow and 200 DayThe upper and lower bounds of Bitcoin measured in three different ways.
