Using S5TH (spx stocks above 200dma) as an oscillator timing cycPretty cool feature. You can use the 9month moving average in S5TH (spx stocks above the 200dma) to time the market cycle. Figure out the upward momentum (with help of game theory and TNX cycle). In practice and theory peoples options should be predictable because everyone act in their self-interest, seeking safety (hypothetical riskfree) and potential.
I use this as an oschilator (like RSI).. above 50% reading is bull market (because more than 50% stocks above it's 200dma).
This thing points to bull market to at least like 2025 summer. Worth noting that business cycle and TNX patterns are key here.
S5TH
S&P 500 SPX SPY ES1! Breadth (S5FI) & (S5TH) - Updated 011623Looking at the latest S&P 500 SPX (SPY ES1!) "Breadth" data , including Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average (S5FI) & Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average" (S5TH) — this is yet another indicator that we have been tracking since the start of the market downturn (correction/bear market) in late 21' / early 22' as it has helped to signal buy/sell signals.
Here's what you'll find on this chart: 📊
Top Section
Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average (S5FI) = Blue Line: *CHART NOTE* Pay close attention to the horizontal (Blue Dotted Line), which signals/coincides with relative tops in breadth that match the SPX resistance.
Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average" (S5TH) = Orange Line: *CHART NOTE* Pay close attention to the horizontal (Orange Dotted Line), which signals/coincides with relative tops in breadth that match the SPX resistance.
Bottom Section
S&P 500 SPX (SPY ES1!) = Teal Line
Support/Resistance (Bear Flag Pattern) = Vertical Red Lines
Pay close attention to the (Red Dotted Lines), as these mark relief rally tops in the SPX (SPY ES1!). Conindiencely enough, these "alignments" of technical signals closely match the resistance (Red Line) that is now sitting around $4,000 S&P 500 SPX (SPY ES1!).
What do you think about this S&P 500 SPX (SPY ES1!) contrarian (sell) indicator? 📈📉
Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
Short & Pray 500Alright this is a straight forward easy idea.
The bottom index is the S5TH which is the % of S&P500 stocks above their 200 day moving average. We are currently sitting a hair above 94%
I'm using a weekly chart for the sake of simplicity as when this gets a weekly close above 94 the SPX will always pull back. Just scroll back on the chart and take a look for yourself.
Notes:
The black line is an actual close above 94.
The blue line is a close that's "almost there", anything 93 and above.
I would be expecting a pullback that lasts about 2 weeks. Remember it's a trade, not a doomsday bet. Conversely, if shorting isn't your cup of tea then trimming up some holdings and waiting to buy the dip could be an alternative way to play this.
All the best,
Andre
SPX'S Percent Above 200d MA Bottoms are below 50% of S5THAlmost the same with NYSE 200d Average study. going below 50% is basically going down to form a bottom. The question, How far can we go down "million dollar question"
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weekly D.Crosses:
After a bottom
going down
top
top
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Daily D.Crosses:
going down
going down
bottom
up swing
up swing
top
up swing
bottom
up swing
botttom
top
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Daily G. Crosses 12 signals:
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Top
5 before top
top
6 before a top
top
2 before top
top
up swing
top
7 before a top
top
sideway
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6 @ Tops, 4 before tops
50% @ Tops 33%@ before
tops weeks.
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Most of Bottoms of SPX, Most Tops of SPX (Back pine pointing )Nothing out of the usual here. Just a quick illustration about where did the tops and bottoms occurred. Each line represent an index reading either a top of spx of a bottom of spx. We did have a top with 49% reading !!! and a bottom with 81% reading these are the most extremes readings and we've never seen them again!!!
wish you all the best.
"Captain, the men are beginning to grumble"Using the symbol S5TH (SP-500 components ABOVE the 20 period moving average) I found something interesting on the 30 minute interval. Since Sept.4 where the SPY (SP-500 ETF * top half of the chart) was pretty much near its peak, through the precipitous drop (I heard a funny metaphor for that - the market had a "Wile .E. Coyote" moment - LOL) and now, back to yesterdays closing highs (Nov.11) on the SPY - we are NOT getting confirmation from is own components. In the sub-chart below is the S5TH indicator. I simply drew a price percent change line from the Sept.4 opening price to yesterdays (Nov.11) CLOSE. Here's the final score :
SPY +1.66%
S5TH -10.9%
Am i calling for a crash? - of course not, but certainly a much needed (and probably expected) profit taking pull back to digest these insane gains we have experienced the past 29 days - talk about a parabolic move !
When I trade, I always ask myself "is the risk greater RIGHT NOW of going long or short the market"?
My definitive answer right now is the risk is MUCH greater going long at these levels than short. How about a compromise then - if not a profit taking sell off then the other question is "do I think there is a risk of MISSING OUT on any near term up side move"? Again my emphatic answer "NOPE" - This quick and dirty analysis (I use many others btw) would have me either SHORT the market or at the very least go to cash or hedge out my exposure (I'm a full time options trader)
In closing - I'm "synthetically" SHORT this market and have been since last Friday and feeling comfortable with my decision looking at this mornings futures
PS - I LOVE the 30 minute interval. There are 13-30 minute intervals in a trading day - 13 is a Fibonacci ratio !
Enjoy (I hope!)