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If bottom picking is your shtick - HYPROP - SA Listed PropertyYup, on the 1D JSE:HYP chart it's all bad: - Bear channel (not bull flag!), - MACD death cross, - RSI @37 but looks like it has more to give, - Price < 5EMA < 15EMA < 200DMA. Yucky. HOWEVER, if you enjoy rolling the dice on bottom picking, consider the following: - During the peak of the Covid selloff (no vaccines, armageddon, etc) HYP was trading in a range call it R15 to R25 - Current price is at the top of this range - in other words, the price is now as good as it was when there was no hope. - Depending on whether you're a glass half full or half empty person, you could view the current charts as a great confirmation for a short. End of days etc. Conversely, you could view it as an accumulation zone between R23.15 and R25.15. Things can't get any worse etc. Regarding fundamentals, some additional considerations: - HYP does have some exposure to Africa & the Balkans, but it is primarily an SA large shopping center owner (85%+ of income). Its prospects are thus primarily correlated with economic growth & the efficacy of the vaccine rollout over the next year. - It has no KZN exposure & some of the best quality assets in WC (Somerset Mall & Canal Walk). - It has very little office exposure, so work form home is not a valuation driver here. - LTV's, especially after the Atterbury disposal, are now 35.8%. Low & safe, nothing to see here. - It has completed its book build (read: your dilution is already factored in) @R28.00. The institutional types who do things like buy book builds were happy to pay 13% more than the current price. - Its NAV Dec-2020: R74.48. June-2019: R95.78. Therefore it's trading at call it a 66% discount to NAV after Covid write downs were properly factored into NAV, and at call it a 75% discount to pre Covid NAV. That seems like a lot. - Before the world ended it was paying divs in the R6.60 p.a. area. Even if only half of that is restored (R3.30), you're still looking at a 13-15% div. To be clear, the price can still get worse, this thing is clearly rolling down the hill. However, if you have a medium term view and the stomach & balance sheet to ride out some volatility & drawdowns over the next 6 months, accumulating a position at R23-R25 or cheaper may pay off very handsomely over a 12 month period. Safe trading UC ps. a nice summary of the risks involved: www.moneyweb.co.za
JSE:HYPLong
by unclecool787
There GOES...REMGRO!Remgro remains one of my favourite “SA Inc” type of company by a country mile. Even after a 16% run over the past week, still leaves the company trading at a current discount to its intrinsic value of over 40% (compared to an average 10-year discount of 15.6%). We therefore firmly believe in the longer-term opportunity REM offers, even at current prices. Also, read our recent report on the company: oldoak.co.za Technically, the resistance level of R96.50 which REM struggled to convincingly break, since July this year, has now been broken, with a run to its 200-day Moving Average (EMA) at R115.75, now becoming highly likely. REM’s 14-day RSI however is getting awfully close to EXTREME OVERBOUGHT levels, which might not make this a “straight line to glory” yet. We could therefore see some profit-taking soon, which could see me reload on some more.
JSE:REM
by SchalkLouw
New-Wave Elliott -advanced & refined over 25 yearsThis New-Wave Elliott Chart since 1900 is accompanied by Market Values showing a clear channel at three degrees of trend, the restitution of Elliott's A-B Base is one of the major, formerly missing pieces allowing this Supercycle Channel. Another is the Diag II as an essential Bearish pattern to indicate the beginning of a long Bear market trajectory. The essence of the Channel is that each time the price territory brushes the upper limit, the next move takes it at least to the lower limit. When magnitude gears-up dramatically the lower parallel must be redrawn upon completion to widen the channel to accommodate Grand Supercycle degree, forced on us by the Fed's manipulation since 2009. When it bought blanket futures on all the exchanges. The proof is that country funds and dual-listed foreign stocks traded much higher in the US than in their home country. The long-term is extremely Bearish, but the short-term is euphorically Bear Market Rallyish. For the Crash to achieve its self-corrective purpose, it must destroy trillions in a flash, so irrational Euphoria must precede every cataclysm, this one is no exception. #1 performance for trailing 12-months www.exceptional-bear.com the full write-up www.exceptional-bear.com
FX:SPX500Short
by mirahyes
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