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Safehaven

Gold Facing Resistance as it Tries to Break OutGold has encroached upon upper levels from its range between 1895 and 1956. We are currently facing resistance from a cluster of levels in the 1950's and 1960's. This dense patch of levels will continue until the 1970's or so. The Kovach OBV has picked up, and if we can break through all these levels we should be clear to test the 1980's, with 1982 in particular a likely target. If we break down, the former lower bound of our range at 1895 should provide support.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
Bonds Bear Rout Bottoming Out??Bonds have stabilized for now after a brief relief rally. We tested higher levels at 123'15 or so, after falling 7 handles from the 129's to the 122's in less than one month. The rally was short lived, and just a technical respite into the overall bear trend, exactly as we had predicted here. The price promptly rejected this level, as anticipated, and headed back down to lows. We found support just above the low at 122'10 and have been equilibrating thereabouts, between this level and 123'01. There is nothing to suggest any deviation from the bear rout, overall except perhaps for small relief rallies. If the bear momentum picks up again our next target is 121'28.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
GOLD-Spot: Bullish Fakey Setup |23-3-22GOLD – SPOT: Potential Multi-Bar Bullish Fakey Setup Price Action: Price formed a potential Multi-Bar Bullish Fakey Setup, overnight. Price briefly moved higher from the recent Bullish Pin Bar Signal that had formed, mid-last week Potential Trade Idea 1: For more aggressive traders, we are considering buying on a breakout above the current potential Multi-Bar Bullish Fakey Setup, with risk management below the Fakey Bar. Potential Trade Idea 2: We are still considering buying on a retracement lower and after a price action signal on a daily, 4 hourly, or 1 hourly chart, at or just above the $1853 – $1877 short-term support area.
GLong
by UnknownUnicorn393254
Every Day a New Low for Bonds!!Bonds keep falling as yields are rising globally. It seems that we have to redo our levels to predict yet another new low in ZN. The Kovach OBV is solidly bearish and we have fallen 7 handles, from the 129's to 122's in the month of March. We are currently testing support at 122'10, but the bear rout shows no sign of stopping. It would be unwise to try to catch a knife here, although the probability of a relief rally increases with each rung down. Our next taget is 121'28. A relief rally could test 123'01 or 123'15.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
USDJPY Time To ReverseAfter a big significant growth, price has reached the strong weekly resistance zone which has been existed since December 2016. Currently, in the 4H time frame, we can see a downside push on price and it seems like it is making a reversal double top pattern. There is a yellow support level at 117.790 which is also the last price low. If price breaks this level and closes a bearish candle below it, we can expect a drop on USDJPY to 117.200 and in the case of more downside pressure, price may drop more to visit 116 as well.
Short
by Mahtab_Tradia
12
What Safe Haven? Gold Finally Ignites Route to $1780-1840Although a bit early in calling the top two weeks ago, Gold has finally begun its descent to test the range of $1780-$1840 as previously predicted. Nothing goes straight up or straight down however. Considering the sideways 3-3-5 movement expected in Wave 4 and also the 3 wave corrective move in B wave, I think its safe to say Gold will stick between $1880-$1980 for the next few days, before making its last leg down to $1780-$1840.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by DigitalSurfTrading
6
Bond Yields at Highest Levels Since 2019Bonds have edged out new lows as investors weigh deescalation of the war in Ukraine and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike . Yields in ZN, the 10 year treasury note, are the highest they've been since July 2019. We have sliced through multiple technical levels below, and have established new lows, yet again. We do appear to be seeing a brief pivot from lows at 124'19, but 125'07 is providing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. If we are able to continue the rally and break through resistance, then 125'17 and 126'00 are the next targets above. If we continue to sell off, then 124'06 is the next target below.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
HOT INFLATION DRIVING USDJPY CRAZY!With inflation running at decades high, USDJPY has been gaining a lot of momentum in the past few weeks driven by the FED's outlook on hiking rates. With the WAR between Russia & Ukraine contributing hugely to the already spiking inflation across the globe, the FED would probably be inclined to tame this by raising interest rates. But what is the FED's latest thinking and outlook would likely be known this week. With that said, both USD & JPY are safehaven currencies! With the development that's going on currently, the fundamentals are in favor of the USD here as the inflation fears is driving up the value of the greenback. Here on the main monthly chart, we can clearly see the price might meet a strong multi-month descending trendline resistance located at 118.500 area. From here onwards its in the FED hands directly as to what they plan to do to tame this hot inflation. Shall the FED decides to hike rates this year numerous times then we can expect this resistance to clear easily and the price can head towards the 120.000 psychological resistance with ease in the coming weeks and possibly higher in the future. On the other hand if the FED does not deliver, this resistance might hold and the prices might start heading lower. All in all this week might set the course as to where this pair might be headed in the future. Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please LIKE & FOLLOW for more insights on major currencies pairs.
Long
by FX618Analysis
Safe Haven Inflows Still Lifting Gold (For Now)Ukraine woes still weigh on global markets and although gold has retraced significantly, it is still hanging onto the high 1900's. Positive news is incoming as we compose this thread including Putin acknowledging "positive undertones" in Ukraine talks . We have given up the 2000's after touching highs at 2070. After finding support at 1982, we appear to be making a run for 2000 again, currently testing 1999 and hovering about 1995 or so at the time of this writing. The Kovach OBV is drifting downwards, suggesting a slight bear bias, but we have a lot of support levels below to buoy the price, including 1982, 1977, 1973, and 1964. It is doubtful we will slice through all of these, but watch the vacuum zone below to 1936. If we get a lift, then 2029, 2048, and 2070 are the next targets.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
1
Bonds Test LowsBonds have smashed through relative lows in the mid 126's to find support at 126'00 which appears to be a technical and psychological level. We have added this as a technical level on the chart. ZN has been on a clear decline falling 3 handles from the 129's to the base of the 126's. The Kovach OBV is on a steady decline, but does appear to be leveling off suggesting we may find support here, or at least that the selloff may ease up. If not, the next target is 125'17. We do appear to be severely oversold and if we see a technical retracement into the bear trend we must break 126'11, where we are currently meeting resistance as confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. After that, 126'19 and 126'28 are targets.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
USDCHF: Greenback Demand Could Finally Break The Range!This market has been ranging for quite some time now, even the start of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine did not have much impact on this pair!. The reason being simple enough, they are both safehaven currencies and in risk off markets they are both in demand. However, since Switzerland is in EUROPE, the conflict would likely increase the demand for the USD more compared to the CHF. However saying that does not mean we should LONG the USD here, technical analysis should always be performed to increase the trade probability and quality. Looking at the main weekly chart on USDCHF, everything is self explanatory based on technical perspective. The main point here is we have to wait for the weekly candle to close outside the upper range to confirm this breakout. After this a LONG trade can be evaluated based on the risk to reward ratio. Cheers, I hope you found this insight helpful. Please LIKE and FOLLOW for more insights on other major currency pairs
Long
by FX618Analysis
EUR/USD starting to break below its 22-year uptrendGeopolitical events continue to dominate, and this is being played out in the markets as a bearish bias on risk assets and investors continuing to head to safe havens – one of which is the US Dollar. On the US Dollar Index chart, we have the 78.6% retracement at 100.785 (of the move down from the 2020 peak) and the 2016 and 2020 highs just shy of 104.00. But this is even more evident on the EUR/USD this chart as this is just starting to break below the 22-year uptrend. The 2020 low at 1.0635 and 1.0340 2017 lows are likely to provide some support on route to parity. When markets start to accelerate lower in this manner, I tend to drop down into hourly charts, and utilise a combo of clouds and Fibonacci and the 9-period RSI to pinpoint where to drop stops down to. We can see on the hourly chart that resistance converges 1.1080/1.1160 (28th January low and double Fibo). The base line and conversion line of the cloud formation offer initial resistance at 1.0945, 1.1027. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Short
by The_STA
Gold Edges HigherGold is steadily uptrending but meeting fierce resistance. We appear to be forming a bull wedge with 1956 as an upper bound as a 1956. There are several levels above this to provide resistance and after that there is a relative high at 1973 or so which is sure to provide resistance. The Kovach OBV is steadily trending up suggesting a slight bull bias. But if we reject current levels, then 1936 will provide support, but we could test as low as 1895, which is our floor for now.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
UPTREND RESUMPTION: USDJPY LIKELY TO BREAKOUT FROM CONSOLIDATIONSince COVID-19 crisis eased around the globe from last year, we have seen a RISK ON mood in the markets thus propelling USDJPY to its recent highs! However at the moment the crisis between Russia and Ukraine has given this pair an excuse not to go higher. The safehaven status of the JPY is preventing this pair from heading higher and therefore we can assume its just consolidating at the moment. With both USD & JPY being SAFEHAVENS in this scenario, we can expect the USD to win here. The reason being the FED is continuing to hike interest rates and inflation is at all time high. The tightening OIL supply also would just add to the inflation woe, thus putting pressure on FED to keep track on raising rates. SIMPLY ON TODAY'S TERMS, THE INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS BETWEEN THESE TWO SAFEHAVEN PAIRS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE USDJPY TO BREAKOUT AND HEAD TOWARDS THE LIKELY LONG TERM TARGET OF 118.000 LEVEL CHEERS
Long
by FX618Analysis
Ruble Where You Going ? Hi traders: With the tension between Russia and Ukraine, we can expect the market to be volatile and moving during an uncertainly time. As we know, USD is a safe haven currency, and here on USDRUB, we can see clear bullish price action on the bigger time frames. With many bullish impulse phases follow by bullish continuations, price is getting push up to all time highs. This is where usually price will consolidate, and potential to continue or reverse back down. For me, my personal options is leaning more upside and continuation up move. What we should wait for is some sort of bullish continuation correction on the lower time frames, to confirm the upside move. With the situation between the two countries may get worse, USDRUB could on route to a new highs. thank you
by jojofang0901
37
GOLD GOING BACK INTO THE 1900S? Gold was also triggered by supply fears along with Natural gas and oil. This fear was caused from sanctions being placed on Russia and Russia invading Ukraine. Gold rose to the price of $1974. Not far from its pervious high $2075 back in august of 2020. When there is fear in the market gold is often used as a safe haven asset. Investors will put their money into gold making market manipulation. Commodities also thrive off of fear. Gold has been in a steady uptrend since January 28th of this year. So far it has been respecting the up trend. Gold made a correction after reaching $1974, retracing to 1878. The wicked off the trend line, and a bullish doji formed indicating bulls are coming back. A bullish divergence has also formed on 15 minute time frame and higher time frames such as 2hr. I see gold going to retest the 1944 area. If it breaks through pervious resistance prices such as, $1910, and $1925 With the was with Russia and Ukraine unknowingly coming to an end, US inflation at 40 year highs, stocks being down can drive investors to place more money in gold
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn11654040
3
GJ Drop After RetestAfter the war news and Russia attacked Ukraine, we saw crazy volatile moves in the market since yesterday and all the safe havens (XAUUSD, JPY, CHF, USD) got strong. As you see in the chart, GBP got weak against JPY and we are in a sharp downside move. Currently, price is pulling back to the broken support level to retest it. If price got rejected after touching the yellow level and closed a bearish confirmation candle below this level, I expect a drop on GJ to the last low around 153.500
Short
by Mahtab_Tradia
26
Gold Blasts Off After Russia Invades Ukraine 📈🤑🚀Gold has blasted through highs off news that Russia has invaded the Ukraine. We saw some resistance around 1917, with 1895 providing good support. But the news took us past 1936, through the vacuum zone to 1956 and then on to the 1970's, where we are finally encountering some resistance and potentially may have topped out for now. A red triangle on the KRI suggests this may be a high. The Kovach OBV has gained considerable strength, and does not appear to be leveling off any time soon. If we do pull back, consider 1956 or 1936 for support.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
1