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Safehaven

Gold Tests Higher LevelsGold got a lift breaking past our level at 1815, just barely. We are currently testing 1818 or so at the time of this writing and appear to be encountering some resistance. The Kovach OBV and Kovach Chande indicators are starting to suggest that we are overbought at the moment, which suggests that gold may dip or at least range a bit. If not, the next target is 1826. If we are unable to sustain the current levels, as the technicals suggest, then we should retrace back to 1795 with ease. Recall that we have further support in the 1780's with a floor at 1777.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
3
Could Omicron Cause USDJPY To Stall At 115.000 ?Its a thin trading week with no concrete markets drivers scheduled. With low liquidity, this pair has been inching closer to the next psychological resistance of 115.000. This level has been rejected on 3 occasions on the recent trend and the current wave would likely represent the 4th test of this concrete resistance! Based on the technical picture, the USDJPY is in the long term uptrend, however the 115.000 psychological barrier needs to be broken convincingly. To do so, the Monthly candle needs to pierce and close above 115.000 mark. This would give a precise indication that indeed this level has been cleared and the price can aim higher. Fundamentally, this pair is mainly driven by the Covid 19 pandemic in the last couple of years. With the discovery of the new variant Omicron, which is now the dominant strain around the globe we can expect the cases to rise rapidly in the coming weeks, as people gather and celebrate during this holiday season. With various statistics confirming that the omicron variant is far less fatal than its predecessor the "delta variant", there is still fear that the high infection rate and cases could again overwhelm the medical industry especially the hospitals! PREDICTION FOR THE COMING WEEKS ? As people gather and celebrate the holiday season, the variant would likely cause the infection rate to spike, which would likely be evident in the coming weeks as the cases might soar. Even with the vaccinations ongoing, the immunity that it provides is only temporary. So how would the market react? as usual the demand for safehaven would return thereby making JPY appreciate. But the demand for JPY or safehaven would not be that high, as this variant is less fatal due to many factors. Therefore USDJPY might test and reject the 115.000 level and fall towards the ascending channel trendline or support of 113.000 area. But 112.000 will likely not be broken and this DIP would be seen as the buying opportunity that the traders have been waiting for. Cheers, I hope you found this insight helpful. Happy holidays
Short
by FX618Analysis
Gold Establishes New Value AreaGold has rallied from the high 1700's, into the value area between 1795 and 1815. We are seeing a great deal of resistance at 1815, as identified by a series of red triangles on the KRI. If we are unable to test 1815 again, we are almost sure to test 1795 again. The Kovach OBV has flattened out, suggesting momentum in the rally has petered out for now. 1795 would be a good idea for a range trade, but keep in mind that a few weeks ago we saw value in the 1780's, with 1777 as a floor for now.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
USDJPY UNLIKELY TO BREAK 112.000 BARRIER! Here is WHYA very interesting pair to trade during this ongoing pandemic, certainly USDJPY has caught the eye of many traders as both currencies acting as SAFEHAVEN. However in RISKOFF mood, the advantage certainly lies with the JPY, as the SAFEHAVEN status makes it appreciate against various counterparts such as the AUD, NZD, CAD, EURO, GBP. In the case of USD and CHF, the JPY has a bit of tussle appreciating since all are considered SAFEHAVEN assets. Looking at the bigger picture, in the RISK OFF markets the JPY certainly appreciates against the USD. For example since the pandemic began, we saw the JPY strengthen against the USD and fall to levels low as much as 105.000 In the RISKON markets, there is no doubt that the JPY weakens against various counterparts, but mostly against the USD. For example, when the global population started being vaccinated slowly, the signs of recovery in the USDJPY was quite evident, as the pair inched closer to 116.000 from lows of 105.000. A QUITE BIG RISE compared to other currencies paired with JPY. CURRENT MARKET MOOD: SEEMS TO BE RISKOFF AND RISKON. BUT PARTICULARY SKEWED TOWARDS THE RISKOFF AS THE OMICRON FEARS GATHER PACE Its festive season and the spread of the new variant would likely make the cases skyrocket, however as many are already vaccinated and boosters shots being administered, we should NOT expect much panic such as the one that was caused by the DELTA variant!. There are other several reasons behind to support this statement HERD IMMUNITY: since the pandemic began and up until now, the whole population has likely already achieved natural immunity and/or acquired immunity. Even as the new variant arise, our immune system are already equipped to fight off the virus DEATHS HAVE BEEN VERY LOW: comparing the fatality that delta variant was causing, so far if you observe the number of new omicron cases, the fatality is very very low. This is because of the HERD immunity. COVID 19 IS HERE TO STAY: Just like the COMMON COLD, COVID19 is here to stay with us. as it mutates and our immune system has also been equipped to fight off new strains. the COMMON COLD and COVID 19 are both classed from the same family of CORONAVIRUS. therefore the world is learning to deal and learn how to live with COVID 19. THE WORLD WANTS TO RETURN TO NORMAL: People are tired of lockdowns and as per the above point, are willing to live with the virus. be it using vaccines more often or just their natural immunity function. As such major financial banks are already predicting the economic recovery in 2022 and beyond GETTING TO THE POINT Current market mood is mixed, that is why it could be seen that USDJPY is ranging after falling sharply on the news that south Africa has detected a new variant. There is no doubt that this festive season would make the new cases sky rocket, however as looking at all the above points, mainly the vaccines and immunity, we can expect the fatality rate to be much much lower compared to the havoc that DELTA variant caused. Looking at the main chart, the festive season would likely cause the USDJPY price to HIT 112.000 or 113.000 area which is the lower end of the channel as the markets panic and enter the RISKOFF MOOD. But as usual the HERD IMMUNITY AND VACCINES BOOSTER ROLEOUT, would make this less threatening and markets might finally realize this and enter in RISKON mood. This would make the USDJPY price rise and possibly HIT 118.000 in 2022. However the covid 19 is highly unlikely to cause markets to enter in a long term RISKOFF mood, therefore we should expect this channel to hold and guide this pair steadily towards the 118.000 mark in 2022. In short this pandemic has caused the markets to be so cautious, however looking at all this every large DIP in USDJPY should be seen a buying opportunity. CHEERS AND THANKS. HOPE YOU FOUND THIS INSIGHT HELPFUL
Short
by FX618Analysis
Bonds Gain as Stocks Sell OffBonds have picked up as stocks have sold off due to increased risk sentiment. We have edged up to 131'02, the technical level we discussed yesterday. The Kovach OBV has picked up significantly, but is starting to level off as ZN finds value in the low 131 handle. We are gradually trekking up in a zig zag pattern, but will face resistance at the next technical level at 131'12. This is a relative high for December which will be difficult to break as we enter the holiday week for Christmas next week. We should have support from below at 130'26 and 130'19.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
2
Gold Soars on Safe Haven InflowsGold has soared past our levels, breaking 1795 with ease. This suggests strong safe haven buying, that has blasted us into the value area between 1795 and 1815. The Kovach OBV has picked up tremendously, but we will see if the rally can continue, or if we will retreat to the value area we've established in the 1780's. After such a tremendous ascent, gold is sure to face resistanceat 1815, and range or correct at this level or at current levels. Watch for support at 1795, but if not, at 1789, and 1784, as we've seen over the past month.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
GOLD - Wyckoff Price Cycle!Hello TradingView Family, this is Richard, and if you like this idea, kindly support with a like or a comment. I found GOLD chart as a great practical example of Wyckoff's Theory. GOLD is overall bullish trading inside the brown channel and it is currently sitting around the lower bound/brown trendline acting as non-horizontal support. So we are looking for trend-following buy setups. Unless of course, the bears manage to break below 1750, which would invalidate the idea. As per Wyckoff Price Cycle, we are currently in an accumulation phase. For the Markup to start, we need the bulls to prove control by breaking the blue channel upward. As per my trading plan: Since the blue channel is already valid, I will be waiting for a momentum candle close above the last major high in gray to buy. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
12
USDJPY: Odds In Favor Of USD! 118.00 A Real Possibility in 2022For 2022, many financial banks are predicting the USDJPY to HIT 118.00 level. Tonight the FED guidance path for next year could likely clear the path for USDJPY to move higher next year. Tight tapering and 2 interest rates hikes have already been priced in by the markets in 2022, should the economic data be strong as expected next year on month to month basis, we could see USDJPY slowly inch closer to the desired target of 118.000. Furthermore, the covid-19 crisis around the world seems to be easing off, as the new variant would likely not pose too much threat because of the effectiveness of current available vaccines. With major economies expected to slowly recover next year, the demand for safehaven YEN should ease off considerably. We should also see the commodities currencies appreciate against the YEN in this aspect. All in all, the odds for USDJPY to climb next year are pretty much set and any major DIP would be seen as an opportunity to BUY. Technically the rising dynamic trendline should act as a concrete support in this scenario. To technically trade this LONG opportunity, it would be wise to wait for the monthly candle to close above 115.000 first so as to confirm that the particular resistance has indeed been broken. After this, a LONG trade can be taken with stops below the rising trendline and targets at 118.00 region. Keep in mind to manage the risk as the RR should ideally be 1:1 My analysis is not meant to be a trading signal nor financial advice! Its highly advisable to perform your own analysis and trade markets at your own risk. Please LIKE & FOLLOW if you found this analysis helpful in assisting with your own personal analysis. Cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
USDJPY: 112.000 Might be the real "OMICRON BUY THE DIP"Currently USDJPY is on a BUY, with the short uptrend expected to meet key monthly resistance at 115.000. After that we might probably see the YEN appreciate VS the Greenback. USDJPY is being supported beneath by a rising key strong trendline, which would likely be tested if the rejection occurs at 115.000 again. There is no doubt that this pair is expected to grow in a long run. Major financial banks are expecting USDJPY to HIT 118.000 area by next year. however looking at the current scenario a short move to 115.000 might likely take place followed by a DIP towards 112.000 region. From here we can expect the BUYERS to strongly come in and take this pair slowly to 118.000 region My analysis is not meant to be a trading signal nor financial advice! Its highly advisable to perform your own analysis and trade markets at your own risk. Please LIKE & FOLLOW if you found this analysis helpful in assisting with your own personal analysis. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
Gold Breaks SupportGold has made a run for lower levels, breaking 1777, or support level from yesterday. We are seeing support form at the next level down, at 1770, however, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. Should 1770 not hold, then 1759 will be the next target. The Kovach OBV is still pretty flat, so we aren't expecting any sudden bull rally of significance, at least until CPI data comes out. If we do, then 1777 is the next target above, before running into further resistance in the 1780's.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Bonds Consolidate, Breakout Soon??Bonds have consolidated as we have expected. We are seeing strong support at 130'19, and appear to be forming a flag pattern bounded by 130'07, and 131'02. The Kovach OBV is trending up slightly, suggesting a small bull bias. From here it could go either way. The Fed is discussing tightening, which would be bearish for bonds, but persistent risk off sentiment due to the Omicron strain could give ZN a lift, though it appears this may be priced in by now. We will see continued support from the upper and lower bounds of the range. Volatility has consolidated quite a bit so we expect a breakout either way potentially soon.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
1
Technical Outlook for GoldGold has dipped further, breaking 1777 and testing 1770. This is the exact level we identified yesterday. We noted that below this, there is a vacuum zone to 1759, but several green triangles on the KRI are suggesting we are finding support. From here, we could stabilize in the 1780's, as there are several resistance levels that we have been testing for the past few days. 1795 seems to be a max upper bound for now. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, but is starting to look over sold, suggesting we could see a bounce back to the value area between 1777 and 1795. Again, watch that vacuum zone to 1759 if things turn south.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
1
Gold Long EntryGold: After dropping down to the $1781 area yesterday evening, Gold managed to climb towards $1798 before consolidating. The RSI levels on the daily chart remain oversold, currently at the 8.32 levels. On the 1hr time frames the recent candles that have emerged show to have decent buying pressure. It looks like the price will move up from here at test the $1800-03 zone this week. Not only do the technical support this analysis but the growing concerns over the “Omicron” variant might persuade investors to move into the safe-haven gold, pushing price up.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Orion-Markets
2
GOLD - Wait For The Trigger!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. XAUUSD is overall bullish and currently sitting around a support zone so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. on H4: XAUUSD formed an inverse head and shoulders (H1) but it is not ready to go yet. Before we buy, we want the bulls to take over by breaking above the last high. Trigger => Waiting for a momentum candle close above the gray neckline to buy. Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, GOLD would be overall bearish can still trade lower. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
16
GOLD - Our Safe Haven!GOLD traded downward aggressively last week. NOW WHAT? GOLD is overall bullish trading inside our brown rising wedge pattern so we will be looking for Trend-Following Buy setups as it approaches our lower brown trendline. The highlighted purple circle is a very strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support (1.8k zone) and the lower brown trendline. As per my trading style : I will be looking for possible bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom, trendline break, and so on...) Unless the brown trendline is broken downward aggressively, then the momentum would be shifted from bullish to bearish. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
14